comparative analysis of irish emigration and unemployment against eu crisis countries, in the...
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Analysis of Social Policy
Capstone Assignment:
Comparative Analysis of Irish Emigration
and Unemployment against EU Crisis
Countries, in the Context of Recession.
Lorcan Murphy 10335845
SPOL30280
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permanently relocate, taking their human capital and production value with them,
resulting in a net loss for the country that invested in them through education,
medical care, etc. Indeed, this study hopes to investigate the link between
unemployment and emigration for just this very reason. If unemployment is closely
tied with emigration, it is in a countrys interest to foster social policies to counter
unemployment, and in so doing, retain its human capital. However, if the
correlation between unemployment and emigration is weak, then research is
necessary to find out what other, more important factors play a role in causing
citizens to emigrate. To find the answers to these questions, I will undergo a
statistical analysis of data surrounding migration and emigration, to discover what
links exist between these two social and economic phenomena. Then to understand
Irelands unique place within the wider context of unemployment-caused
emigration, I will also contrast Irelands employment-migration relationship with
data from 3 more of the most significant European Crisis Countries: Greece, Spain,
and Portugal.
Before investigating any of these findings in any great depth, the concepts at
play require definition for an integrated understanding of the complex subjects
themselves. So let us define some of the key concepts surrounding this research:
Recession, Unemployment, and Emigration.
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Recession
A recession is a period of falling economic activity spread across the economy,
lasting more than a few months, normally visible in real GDP, real income,
employment, industrial production, and wholesale-retail sales (2010, HALL,
ROBERT et al,Business Cycle Dating CommitteeNational Bureau of Economic
Research September 20, 2010 National Bureau of Economic Research, pg 1). So
from this definition, we can understand a recession in a statistical sense of a period
of negative GDP, among other factors. For our more migrant-focused purposes, we
will be utilising GDP rates as the primary indicator of recession.
Unemployment
(1) The "unemployed" comprise all persons above a specified age who during
the reference period were:
(a) "without work", i.e. were not in paid employment or self-employment,
(b) "currently available for work", i.e. were available for paid employment or self-
employment during the reference period;
And
(c) "seeking work", i.e. had taken specific steps in a specified recent period to seek
paid employment or self-employment. The specific steps may include registration
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at a public or private employment exchange; application to employers; checking at
worksites, farms, factory gates, market or other assembly places; placing or
answering newspaper advertisements; seeking assistance of friends or relatives;
looking for land, building, machinery or equipment to establish own enterprise;
arranging for financial resources; applying for permits and licences, etc. (1982,
Resolution concerning statistics of the economically active population,
employment, unemployment and underemployment, adopted by the Thirteenth
International Conference of Labour Statisticians, International Labour
Organization, pg 4).
This definition succinctly sets a criteria for what is to be considered within and
without the grouping of unemployment. This definition demonstrates a relevant
meaning of the set of economic criteria we are interested in: those capable and
willing to work, but unable to find employment. It is exactly such a demographic
that may well emigrate to another country to find work there.
Emigrant
A person who moves to a country other than that of his or her usual residence for
a period of at least a year (12 months), so that the country of destination effectively
becomes his or her new country of usual residence. From the perspective of the
country of departure the person will be a longterm emigrant and from that of the
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All figures in millions of euro
From this data we can conclude that a recession has occurred in each of the
countries, as well as within the EU as a whole, around a year or two within each
other, with the EU as a whole entering its recession from 2008-2009, hitting a 6%
downturn of GDP. Ireland entered its recession from 2007-2008, hitting 5%
downturn, followed by a 10% from 2008-2009, then 3% negative GDP in 2009-
2010 before increasing again in 2010, making a 3-year recession of 18% total.
Greece entered its recession from 2008-2009 with an initial drop of 1%, then 4%
for 2009-2010, then 6% for 2010-2011, then 13% in 2011-2012,with uncertain
estimates for this years GDP, making a 4-year, continuing recession with a 24%
drop in GDP levels. Spain entered its recession in 2008-2009 with an initial drop of
4%, a tender year of negligible growth in 2009-2010, and a small further growth of
1% from 2010-2011, before sinking into recession again from 2011-2012 by 1%,
leaving a 2 combined years of recession with one year of growth averaging at 4%
drop in GDP, with the recession continuing. Finally, Portugal entered the recession
GEO/TIME 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
European Union (27 countries) 11,072,291.3 11,701,131.3 12,406,298.9 12,473,092.3 11,754,457.3 12,278,744.1 12,642,398.8 12,899,149.5
Ireland 163,037.1 177,729.2 188,729.2 178,881.6 161,205.2 156,486.7 161,037.7 163,595.4
Greece 193,049.7 208,622.3 223,160.1 233,197.7 231,081.2 222,151.5 208,531.7 193,749.0
Spain 909, 298.0 985,547. 0 1,053,161.0 1, 087,788.0 1,048,060. 0 1,048,883.0 1, 063, 355.0 1,049,525. 0
Portugal 154,268.7 160,855.4 169,319.2 171,983.1 168,529.2 172,859.5 171,064.8 165,409.2
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in 2008-2009 with a drop in GDP of 2%, a year of 3% growth before dipping back
into recession from 2010-2011 by 1%, then deeper again in 2011-2012 by 3%
leaving 3 years of recession and one year of positive growth, with total GDP levels
dropping by 3%, and continuing at present.
So, what broader information can we take from this data in relationship to
expectations over emigration rates? If emigration is to be inexorably linked to
recession and unemployment, one should expect to see emigration rates
proportionally increase along with rates of economic recession. With that said, let
us analyse the trends of note: Firstly, Greece has experienced the worst recession,
most notably from 2010-2011 at 13% drops in GDP. While starting somewhat
later, Greece has suffered a 24% total drop in GDP lasting the longest consecutive
span of time, as well as the deepest drops, while still continuing. Ireland places
second with a total drop of 18% during its recession the worst of which was from
2008-2009 with a drop of 10% GDP, with a recession which lasted 3 consecutive
years, and is now displaying a slow growth. Thirdly, Spain and Portugal both
display comparatively milder recessions at 4 and 3% GDP loss, and both also
mirroring a short, year-long period of neutral growth. This last fact should allow
us to investigate the immediate reflexivity of the emigrant/economic market, if
these short plateaus in the economic situation are demonstrated in unemployment
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and emigration rates, or smoothed over. In either case, it would be expected that
unemployment and emigration would be highest in the countries and periods of
lowest GDP.
The main goal of this essay is to investigate the link between unemployment
rates and emigration rates in crisis countries. Indeed, while a Recession might
indicate a countrys economic hardship, it is the purpose of this essay to ascertain
if it is the personal hardships of unemployment that can drive individuals to move
to other countries in search of work. With this goal in mind, let us analyse the
relevant data surrounding unemployment.
Chart 2.1: Eurostat: Unemployment rate, by sex, % Total: Last updated 30.04.2013
http://epp.eurostat.ec.europa.eu/tgm/table.do?tab=table&init=1&language=en&pcode=tsdec450&plugin=1
For comparative purpose, this chart is also displayed as a graph:
Fig 2.1 Eurostat: Unemployment rates in the EU - Derived from Chart 2.1
GEO/TIME 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012European Union 9.1 9.3 9.0 8.3 7.2 7.1 9.0 9.7 9.7 10.5
Ireland 4.6 4.5 4.4 4.5 4.7 6.4 12.0 13.9 14.7 14.7
Greece 9.7 10.5 9.9 8.9 8.3 7.7 9.5 12.6 17.7 24.3
Spain 11.4 10.9 9.2 8.5 8.3 11.3 18.0 20.1 21.7 25.0
Portugal 7.1 7.5 8.6 8.6 8.9 8.5 10.6 12.0 12.9 15.9
http://epp.eurostat.ec.europa.eu/tgm/table.do?tab=table&init=1&language=en&pcode=tsdec450&plugin=1http://epp.eurostat.ec.europa.eu/tgm/table.do?tab=table&init=1&language=en&pcode=tsdec450&plugin=1http://epp.eurostat.ec.europa.eu/tgm/table.do?tab=table&init=1&language=en&pcode=tsdec450&plugin=1 -
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There are very many interesting points of note about this chart. The beginning of
unemployment rising coincides with the start of the recession for the EU, and all of
the countries, with the exception of Spain, whose unemployment rate went from
8.3 to 11.3 despite featuring a positive GDP rate of 3% for that year. This oddity is
further confounded by Spains demonstration of the highest unemployment rate of
all 4 Crisis Countries, despite its comparatively smaller total recession. Here also
we see that earlier theories of market immediate reflexivity seem to prove false:
years of near-neutral growth are smoothly overwritten, following a curve rather
than a series of points. Other than that, the data mimics the trends of the recession
data, with Greece displaying the most economic difficult, with Ireland second,
followed by Portugal, and with a comparative baseline set by the European Union.
With an eye out for oddities displayed by Spain, one would continue to expect
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
European Union (27 countries)
Ireland
Greece
Spain
Portugal
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similar trends for emigration data.
Emigration data can be somewhat difficult to acquire: Emigration is
particularly difficult to measure; it is harder to count people leaving a country than
those arriving. An analysis comparing 2008 immigration and emigration data from
the EU Member States (mirror statistics) confirmed that this was true in many
countries. "(2013/5/4)Migration and migrant population statistics" - Statistics
Explained
http://epp.eurostat.ec.europa.eu/statistics_explained/index.php/Migration_and_mig
rant_population_statistics#Data_sources_and_availability
This can leave investigations such as this in something of a quandary, but
unfortunately one must work with what resources are available. Hence,
Information on Greeces emigration statistics have only been recorded from 2010-
2012, and the EU (27 States) only possesses the same statistics from 2009-2012.
Still, there is valuable data to be gleaned from the information available, and its
most recent nature enables context to be developed and the data to be effectively
compared with more complete datasets. With that said, let us view and analyse the
data itself:
Chart 3.1: Eurostat: Emigration: Total Persons. Last updated: 03.05.2013
http://epp.eurostat.ec.europa.eu/statistics_explained/index.php/Migration_and_migrant_population_statistics#Data_sources_and_availabilityhttp://epp.eurostat.ec.europa.eu/statistics_explained/index.php/Migration_and_migrant_population_statistics#Data_sources_and_availabilityhttp://epp.eurostat.ec.europa.eu/statistics_explained/index.php/Migration_and_migrant_population_statistics#Data_sources_and_availabilityhttp://epp.eurostat.ec.europa.eu/statistics_explained/index.php/Migration_and_migrant_population_statistics#Data_sources_and_availabilityhttp://epp.eurostat.ec.europa.eu/statistics_explained/index.php/Migration_and_migrant_population_statistics#Data_sources_and_availability -
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http://epp.eurostat.ec.europa.eu/tgm/table.do?tab=table&init=1&language=en&pcode=tps00177&plugin=1
On first appearance, this data comes across as somewhat obtuse. While accurate,
utilising it on a comparative level between countries is impossible, as the number
of emigrating citizens will have less to do with the societys attitude to migration
and more to do with the size of country. To give us both a view into the societies
these statistics embody, as well as an ability to compare between countries, we
need to find the rate of emigration with respect to population. To get this figure, we
divide the number of emigrants by the total population of their country at the time
of emigration to get a percentage of emigrants in each country per year. This
creates this dataset:
Chart 3.2: Rate of Emigration :Derived from Chart 3.1 and Eurostat: Population on 1 January: Persons Total Last
updated 25.04.2013
http://epp.eurostat.ec.europa.eu/tgm/table.do?tab=table&init=1&language=en&pcode=tps00001&plugin=1
GEO/TIME 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
European Union i486,646,114 488,797,929 491,134,938 493,210,397 495,291,925 497,686,132 499,686,575 501,084,516 502,369,211
Ireland 3,964,191 4,028,851 4,111,672 4,208,156 4,312,526 4,401,335 4,450,030 4,467,854 4,570,727
Greece 11,006,377 11,040,650 11,082,751 11,125,179 11,171,740 11,213,785 11,260,402 11,305,118 11,309,885
Spain 41,663,702 42,345,342 43,038,035 43,758,250 44,474,631 45,283,259 45,828,172 45,989,016 46,152,926
Portugal 10,407,465 10,474,685 10,529,255 10,569,592 10,599,095 10,617,575 10,627,250 10,637,713 10,572,157
GEO/TIME 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011European Union (27 Countries) 0.1633 0.2131 0.2433
Ireland 0.6861 0.7117 0.8354 0.9236 0.9864 1.3675 1.4663 1.6490 1.8797
Greece 1.0613 1.1139
Spain 0.1543 0.1301 0.1580 0.3252 0.5105 0.5884 0.7062 0.8763 1.1001
Portugal 0.0855 0.1020 0.1026 0.1202 0.2529 0.1917 0.1590 0.2234 0.4162
http://epp.eurostat.ec.europa.eu/tgm/table.do?tab=table&init=1&language=en&pcode=tps00177&plugin=1http://epp.eurostat.ec.europa.eu/tgm/table.do?tab=table&init=1&language=en&pcode=tps00001&plugin=1http://epp.eurostat.ec.europa.eu/tgm/table.do?tab=table&init=1&language=en&pcode=tps00001&plugin=1http://epp.eurostat.ec.europa.eu/tgm/table.do?tab=table&init=1&language=en&pcode=tps00001&plugin=1http://epp.eurostat.ec.europa.eu/tgm/table.do?tab=table&init=1&language=en&pcode=tps00177&plugin=1 -
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other, and their rate of emigration remaining only 0.1% different from each other
as well. On a further word about the Irish exception, the data is somewhat
surprising to find not only the high levels of emigration during the recession, but
also beforehand as well. Ireland boasted an enviable GDP growth and >5%
unemployment from 2003-2007, and yet even in these boom times, emigration was
at a nearly incomparable high triple or quadruple the rate of other countries despite
possessing the lowest unemployment rate of the entire group! While economic
factors for emigration are oft-cited, and even as the data confirms, have a
connection and increase in tandem with each other, these unexpected
contradictions set Ireland up as something of an exception to the conventional
ways of thinking of unemployment and emigration. If we emigrate more often than
others in the best of times, where does that leave us in the worst of times?
For further, final analysis, it is necessary to create a workable statistical method
of expressing the relationship between each countrys unemployment rate, and
their rate of emigration. So for this purpose we must express the ratio of the rate
of unemployment against rate of emigration. To create this value, I have chosen
to represent the relationship between these two factors as the Rate of Emigration
divided by the Rate of Unemployment. This number, while not intrinsically
descriptive, can be understood in the context of representing the relationship
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comparative to each other primarily, as the small values being worked with may
keep simpler conceptions of tending towards at bay. Still, let us investigate the
data, and analyse what findings can be drawn from the creation and comparison of
these values.
Chart 4.1: Ratio of Rate of Emigration to Rate of unemployment: Derived from Charts 3.2 and 2.1
Fig 4.1: Ratio of Rate of Emigration to Rate of Unemployment, Derived from Chart 4.1
And so we have the culmination of this research process: A statistical dataset that
displays the connection between emigration and unemployment in the Crisis
GEO/TIME 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
European Union (27 Countries) 0.0181 0.0220 0.0251
Ireland 0.1492 0.1582 0.1899 0.2052 0.2099 0.2137 0.1222 0.1186 0.1279
Greece 0.0842 0.0629
Spain 0.0135 0.0119 0.0172 0.0383 0.0615 0.0521 0.0392 0.0436 0.0507
Portugal 0.0120 0.0136 0.0119 0.0140 0.0284 0.0226 0.0150 0.0186 0.0323
0
0.05
0.1
0.15
0.2
0.25
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
European Union (27
Countries)
Ireland
Greece
Spain
Portugal
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Countries in the context of the recession. As previously mentioned, higher values
indicate a greater level of emigration relative to unemployment. What may seem
noticeable, or strange, is the dip in the graph among each country in timing with
the recession. This is explained as an increase in unemployment without a
proportional increase in emigration, not necessarily a decrease of emigration per
se. I believe its unilateral appearance is merely an indicator of a previously
mentioned facet of these issues, that the migrant and economic market is not
immediately reflexive, and the sharp economic drop-offs of the recession resulting
in considerable spikes in unemployment take time for individuals to respond to.
And as can be seen, after the initial dive due to recession, the rate of emigration
continued to increase for the majority of countries. Some of the findings for this
data are complex and difficult to conclusively comment upon. The Greek example
is contentious: are Greeks less inclined to emigrate during times of economic
hardship, or are migratory responses simply outstripped by the fast-increasing
unemployment rate? Once again of note is that Spain and Greece still represent
similar levels of response to unemployment and migration, the example of 2011
remains quite close between the two countries. As well, Portugal and the EU
standard remain steady and predictable, behaving as we might expect them to. So it
is then worth asking: Is it the individuals response to economic conditions that
spurs emigration? Or are there further complicating factors? While of course for
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such an intersectional topic there are going to be many factors to consider, I
believe that in the context of Irelands comparatively high levels of emigration
against other countries, countries that are suffering from worse unemployment
situations, I believe the data points to a contention between Irish emigration for
employment purposes. Which is not to say at all that Irish emigration for reasons of
employment are not legitimate, but simply that if unemployment is the criteria
upon which one bases their emigration, that the data suggests that there must be
other, key factors in need of address.
The fact remains that other Crisis Countries present as having higher rates of
unemployment and falling GDP, and yet these populations do not display the level
of reactive emigration that Ireland does, even so far as to still rank second for
emigration rates. One might expect, for example that a country with 25%
unemployment might have 3% emigration, and Ireland by contrast might have 10%
unemployment and 2% emigration, and Ireland still have the higher comparative
unemployment/emigration rate, but the fact that the total emigration rate outstrips
Greece by a 168%, and Spain by 170%, despite having 79% and 67% of their
unemployment rate respectively casts doubt on the assertion that unemployment is
truly the primary motivator for emigration from an Irish perspective. A fairer
comparison to a lesser crisis country can be found in Portugal, who has a closer
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unemployment rate of 15.9 to our 14.7. But even so, our emigration rate of 1.87%
to Portugals 0.41% leaves us with 450% of their emigration rate, with comparable
unemployment rates. With so many other countries in a similar situation choosing
not to emigrate, I believe it is reasonable, and for a social policy creator, necessary
to question the simplicity of emigration for employment purposes in Ireland.
In conclusion, I must express surprise at the extent to which Ireland outranked
other Crisis Countries in terms of emigration rates. While I had colloquially
expected Ireland to be somewhat higher than comparative countries, I also
questioned if perhaps the social narrative of traditional economic emigration was
not so strictly isolated to just one country. And yet, the data demonstrates that
citizens of the other Crisis Countries did not emigrate at nearly the same rate as
Ireland, despite often facing harsher economic situations. Complex examples such
as Spains normatively suffering GDP contrasted against a startling unemployment
rate feeding into a high emigration rate sat in similar comparisons to Portugal, who
had similar GDP performance and yet had less unemployment and consequently,
emigration. But then Ireland contrasts with most countries presented, featuring the
harmed GDP of Greece, the Unemployment levels of Portugal, and an emigration
rate that exceeded them all. As previously stated, emigration due to economic
reasons is a highly intersectional subject, but at the very least this essay has
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demonstrated that there is certainly more to emigration in Ireland than simple
unemployment. From a social policy perspective, this information is critical. While
of course one cannot reasonably force citizens to remain in a country, policies can
be enacted to both improve sectors of a country that citizens may feel is lacking,
and reduce and resolve negative impacts of socioeconomic phenomena such as
crime to entire citizens to stay, and overall reduce the number of reasons one could
have for leaving. However, it is important that efforts to address gaps in policy are
correctly focused to the right issues. This essay has demonstrated the
complications and contradictions of emigration based on unemployment reasons,
and while it is not within the scope of this essay to uncover the perhaps more
relevant causes of the proportionately high levels of emigration, it has at succeeded
at inductively uncovering the hidden, outlying nature of Irish emigration rates, that
unemployment as a cause is not a sufficient explanation, and that if policy is to
alleviate or reduce the high Irish emigration rate, merely attempting to alleviate
unemployment is far from the correct answer.
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Bibliography:
2010, HALL, ROBERT et al,Business Cycle Dating CommitteeNational Bureau
of Economic Research September 20, 2010 National Bureau of Economic
Research, pg 1
1982,Resolution concerning statistics of the economically active population,
employment, unemployment and underemployment, adopted by the Thirteenth
International Conference of Labour Statisticians, International Labour
Organization, pg 4
1998, United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Statistics
Division,Recommendations on Statistics of International Migration Revision
1,United Nations, Statistical Papers Series M, No. 58, Rev. 1,pg 18
Chart 1.1 Eurostat: GDP and main componentsCurrent prices- accessed 04-05-
2013
http://appsso.eurostat.ec.europa.eu/nui/show.do?dataset=nama_gdp_c&lang=en
Chart 2.1: Eurostat: Unemployment rate, by sex, % Total Last updated 30.04.2013
http://appsso.eurostat.ec.europa.eu/nui/show.do?dataset=nama_gdp_c&lang=enhttp://appsso.eurostat.ec.europa.eu/nui/show.do?dataset=nama_gdp_c&lang=enhttp://appsso.eurostat.ec.europa.eu/nui/show.do?dataset=nama_gdp_c&lang=en -
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http://epp.eurostat.ec.europa.eu/tgm/table.do?tab=table&init=1&language=en&pco
de=tsdec450&plugin=1
Emigration is particularly difficult to measure; it is harder to count people leaving
a country than those arriving. An analysis comparing 2008 immigration and
emigration data from the EU Member States (mirror statistics) confirmed that this
was true in many countries. "(2013/5/4)Migration and migrant population
statistics" - Statistics Explained
http://epp.eurostat.ec.europa.eu/statistics_explained/index.php/Migration_and_mig
rant_population_statistics#Data_sources_and_availability
Chart 3.1: Eurostat: Emigration: Total Persons. Last updated: 03.05.2013
http://epp.eurostat.ec.europa.eu/tgm/table.do?tab=table&init=1&language=en&pco
de=tps00177&plugin=1
Chart 3.2: Rate of Emigration :Derived from Chart 3.1 and Eurostat: Population
on 1 January: Persons TotalLast updated 25.04.2013
http://epp.eurostat.ec.europa.eu/tgm/table.do?tab=table&init=1&language=en&pco
de=tps00001&plugin=1
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