company analysis - amazon - amzn uq equity
DESCRIPTION
Company Analysis - AMAZON - AMZN UQ EquityWhat's changedAmazon reported 4Q11 results after the close. Despite upside to EPSversus consensus and consolidated segment operating income whichcame in materially above the Street, in our view the focus will be on theshortfall in revenue, which came in at $17.4bn versus consensus of$18.3bn. In fact, the 4Q2011 quarter marks the second consecutive quarterthat Amazon has fallen short of the consensus revenue forecast.ImplicationsAlong with a slowdown in growth in video games and consoles and animpact on certain sales due to the floods in Thailand, management alsoreferenced the macro environment as a cause for the miss, with weaknessin Europe called out in particular. As for its Kindle and Kindle Fireperformance in 4Q2011, we estimate sales hit 10.6mn, below our forecastof 13.9mn units. That said, we believe the company hit our more importantKindle Fire unit forecast of 6mn, suggesting the Fire cannibalized sales oftraditional e-readers. As for guidance, Amazon gave an outlook belowconsensus on all major metrics; revenue, GAAP operating income, andCSOI. As such, we are lowering our revenue forecast for the year byroughly $2bn to $63.6bn versus the Street prior to last night at $65.3bn,and our GAAP operating margin is being reduced to 0.3% for CY2012,versus consensus of 1.8%. On lower expected sales and higher expenseswe are reducing our 2012/2013 GAAP EPS by 75%/40% to $0.36/$2.11 from$1.42/$3.57 versus consensus of $1.88/$3.75 prior to the call.ValuationOn lower expected earnings we are reducing our 12-month price target to$182 from $190. At around $177 in the after market, Amazon is trading at29X our 2012 non-GAAP EBITDA estimate of $2.57bn. Our price target isbased on our equally weighted DCF, P/E, and EV/EBITDA analysis.Key risksMacro economy, eCommerce adoption is better or worse than expected.TRANSCRIPT
01.02.2012
Ticker: Amazon.com Inc Benchmark:
Currency: NASDAQ GS: AMZN, Currency: USD S&P 500 INDEX (SPX)
Sector: Consumer Discretionary Industry: Internet & Catalog Retail Year:
Telephone 1-206-266-1000 Revenue (M) Business Segments in USD Sales (M) Geographic Segments in USD Sales (M)Website www.amazon.com/ No of Employees Total Revenue 48077 North America 26705Address 410 Terry Avenue North Seattle, WA 98109-5210 United States International 21372Share Price Performance in USDPrice 194.44 1M Return 12.3%52 Week High 246.71 6M Return -12.1%52 Week Low 160.59 52 Wk Return 13.0%52 Wk Beta 0.95 YTD Return 12.3%Credit Ratings
Bloomberg A1HS&P NR Date 07.12.2011 Outlook -Moody's WR Date 07.07.2005 Outlook STABLEFitch - Date - Outlook -
Valuation Ratios
12/08 12/09 12/10 12/11 12/12E 12/13E 12/14EP/E 36.9x 63.5x 71.1x 126.4x 67.4x 45.2x 27.7xEV/EBIT 22.2x - 52.2x - - - -EV/EBITDA 16.6x - 37.2x - 29.2x 21.2x 15.0xP/S 1.1x 2.4x 2.4x 1.6x 1.4x 1.1x 0.8xP/B 8.2x 11.4x 11.8x 10.2x 9.5x 8.1x 6.3xDiv Yield 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%Profitability Ratios %
12/08 12/09 12/10 12/11 12/12E 12/13E 12/14EGross Margin 22.3 22.6 22.3 22.4 22.0 22.1 22.6EBITDA Margin 5.9 6.1 5.8 4.0 4.5 4.8 5.3Operating Margin 4.4 4.6 4.1 1.8 1.6 2.3 3.2Profit Margin 3.4 3.7 3.4 1.3 1.9 2.4 3.1Return on Assets 8.7 8.2 7.1 2.9 4.4 6.4 8.7Return on Equity 33.3 22.8 19.0 8.6 11.3 19.2 30.0Leverage and Coverage Ratios
12/08 12/09 12/10 12/11Current Ratio 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.2 Current Capitalization in USDQuick Ratio 1.0 1.0 1.0 0.8 Common Shares Outstanding (M) 455.0EBIT/Interest 11.9 33.2 36.1 13.3 Market Capitalization (M) 88422.4Tot Debt/Capital 0.1 - 0.1 - Cash and ST Investments (M) 9576.0Tot Debt/Equity 0.2 - 0.2 - Total Debt (M) 1897.0Eff Tax Rate % 27.7 21.9 23.4 31.6 Preferred Equity (M) 0.0
LT Investments in Affiliate Companies (M) 0.0Investments (M) 0.0Enterprise Value (M) 80743.4
Amazon.com, Inc. is an online retailer that offers a wide range of products. The Company's products include books, music, videotapes, computers, electronics, home and garden, and numerous other products. Amazon offers personalized shopping services, Web-based credit card payment, and direct shipping to customers.
AMZN UQ
48'07756'200
Company Analysis - Overview
100%
PlqUi Nbsbkrb
56%
44%
Kloqe 5jbofWU FkqbokUqflkUi
Q.M.S Advisors | tel: +41 (0)78 922 08 77 | e-mail: [email protected] |
Amazon.com IncTarget price in USD
Date Buy Hold Sell Date Price Target Price Broker Analyst Recommendation Target Date0.(GVk(./ 3.% 04% /% .(CbW(./ .61)11 //-)1. JlodVk PqVkhbu P9LQQ T ABSFQQ Lsbotq,7qqoVYqfsb //-)-- .(CbW(./0-(AbY(.. 26% 05% 0% 0.(GVk(./ .61)11 //6)51 DlhaiVk PVYep EB7QEBO 8BIIFKF kbrqoVh,kbrqoVh .5/)-- .(CbW(./0-(Kls(.. 3.% 03% 0% 0-(GVk(./ .6/).2 /01)/2 O89 9VmfqVh JVogbqp OLPP P7KAIBO lrqmbocloi /-2)-- .(CbW(./0.(LYq(.. 3/% 02% 0% /4(GVk(./ .62)04 /01)/2 9obafq Prfppb PMBK9BO T7KD kbrqoVh .6-)-- .(CbW(./0-(Pbm(.. 26% 05% 0% /3(GVk(./ .60)05 /01)21 GMJlodVk ALRDI7P 7KJRQE lsbotbfdeq /.-)-- .(CbW(./0.(7rd(.. 3-% 04% 0% /2(GVk(./ .54)5- /00)02 GVkkbu Jlkqdlibou PYlqq II9 PE7TK 9 JFIKB Wru //-)-- .(CbW(.//6(Grh(.. 3.% 03% 0% /1(GVk(./ .54)-- /00)02 9fqf J7OH P J7E7KBU Wru /.2)-- .(CbW(./0-(Grk(.. 26% 05% 0% /0(GVk(./ .53)-6 /01).5 JVYnrVofb 8BKG7JFK 7 P9E79EQBO lrqmbocloi //-)-- .(CbW(./0.(JVu(.. 26% 05% 0% /-(GVk(./ .6-)60 /01)4. Pqfcbh KfYlhVrp GLOA7K OLE7K Wru //-)-- .(CbW(.//6(7mo(.. 33% 0.% 0% .6(GVk(./ .61)12 /01)4. Lmmbkebfibo 9l G7PLK P EBICPQBFK lrqmbocloi /01)-- .(CbW(./0.(JVo(.. 32% 0/% 0% .5(GVk(./ .56)11 /01)4. Tbhhp CVodl PbYrofqfbp& II9 J7QQ KBJBO lrqmbocloi .(CbW(.//5(CbW(.. 24% 1-% 0% .4(GVk(./ .5.)30 /01)4. 8VoYhVup 9VmfqVh 7KQELKU G AF9IBJBKQB bnrVhtq,mlpfqfsb .6-)-- .(CbW(./
.3(GVk(./ .45)1/ /02)3. Gbccbofbp ULRPPBC E) PNR7IF Wru //2)-- 0.(GVk(./
.0(GVk(./ .45)1/ /02)3. MVYfcfY 9obpq PbYrofqfbp 9E7A 87OQIBU pbYqlo mbocloi 0.(GVk(./
./(GVk(./ .42)60 /03).- 9VkVYYloa Dbkrfqu 9lom JF9E7BI DO7E7J elha /.-)-- 0.(GVk(./
..(GVk(./ .45)6- /04)-1 8D9 MVoqkbop 9LIFK T DFIIFP pbhh .6-)-- 0.(GVk(./
.-(GVk(./ .46)01 /04)-1 Mfmbo GVccoVu BRDBKB B JRKPQBO lsbotbfdeq //-)-- 0.(GVk(./6(GVk(./ .45)23 /04)-1 PrkQorpq OlWfkplk Erimeobu A7SFA D J7DBB kbrqoVh 0-(GVk(./3(GVk(./ .5/)3. /04)/. PVkcloa 9) 8bokpqbfk 9l 97OILP HFOGKBO lrqmbocloi /4.)-- 0-(GVk(./2(GVk(./ .44)3. /03)41 OVuilka GVibp 77OLK J HBPPIBO iVogbq mbocloi 0-(GVk(./1(GVk(./ .44)2. /03)41 9Vofp 9limVku P9LQQ QFIDEJ7K VWlsb VsboVdb /2-)-- 0-(GVk(./0(GVk(./ .46)-0 /03)41 KbbaeVi 9l HBOOU OF9B elha /4(GVk(.//(GVk(./ .40).- /03)41 PrpnrbeVkkV CfkVkYfVh Dolrm EBOJ7K IBRKD Mlpfqfsb /3-)-- /3(GVk(./
0-(AbY(.. .40).- /03)41 9fV ab MolcbppflkVhbp ab 8lhpV G7JFI E7II7PPLR ELIDRFK Wru /.-)-- /1(GVk(.//6(AbY(.. .40)53 /03)41 KliroV 8OF7K KLT7H kbrqoVh //-)-- /-(GVk(.//5(AbY(.. .40)56 /03)41 Qeb 8bkYeiVog 9limVku II9 COBABOF9H T JLO7K Wru /.-)-- .4(GVk(.//4(AbY(.. .43)/4 /03)41 BsboYlob MVoqkbop HBK PBK7 lsbotbfdeq /1-)-- ./(GVk(.//3(AbY(.. .44)/5 /03)41 9obafq 7dofYlhb PbYrofqfbp !RP7% G7JBP IBB Wru /0-)-- ./(GVk(.//0(AbY(.. .44)/5 /03)41 Qbhpbu 7asfplou Dolrm QELJ7P CLOQB kl oVqfkd pupqbi /22)-- .-(GVk(.///(AbY(.. .45)66 /03)41 OlWboq T) 8Vfoa 9l 9LIFK PB87PQF7K lrqmbocloi /3-)-- 6(GVk(./
Company Analysis - Analysts Ratings
7rt RkT Bagg 9aSliiakTRodlkn sn 8mdSa RkT PRmcao 8mdSa
24%32% 33% 26% 26% 3%% 3!% 26% 3'% 3%% 26% 3%%
1!%0'% 0%% 05% 05% 03% 04% 05% 02% 03% 05% 04%
0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% '%
)%
.)%
1)%
3)%
4)%
,))%
cxso(,, jUop(,, Uso(,, jUf(,, grfk(,, grfi(,, Ulyq(,, pbmq(,, lWq(,, kls(,, axW(,, gUks(,.
6ol
hbo N
bWlj
jbk
aUqfl
k
)
2)
,))
,2)
.))
.2)
0)) MofW
b
6rv Elia Obii MofWb PUodbq MofWb
7mleamn PRmcao 8mdSa
)
2)
,))
,2)
.))
.2)
0))
Jlo
dUk
OqU
kibv
Dli
ajUk
OUW
epN
68
8Um
fqUi J
Uohb
qp8
obaf
q Orf
ppb
GMJ
lodU
kGU
kkbv
Jlk
qdlj
bov
OWl
qq II
88
fqfJ
UWnr
Uofb
Oqfc
bi K
fWli
Urp
Lmm
bkeb
fjbo
8
lT
biip
CUo
dl O
bWro
fqfbp
& II8
6Uo
WiUv
p 8
UmfqU
iGb
ccbofb
pM
UWfcf
W 8
obpq
ObW
rofqf
bp8
UkUW
Wloa
Dbk
rfqv
8lo
m6
D8
MUo
qkbo
pM
fmbo
GUc
coUv
Ork
Porp
q NlV
fkpl
k E
rjme
obv
OUk
cloa
8( 6
bokp
qbfk
8
lN
Uvj
lka
GUj
bp8
Uofp
8
ljmU
kvK
bbae
Uj
8l
Orp
nrbe
UkkU
Cfk
UkWf
Ui D
olrm
8fU
ab
Mol
cbpp
flkU
ibp
ab 6
lipU
Klj
roU
Peb
6bk
Wej
Uoh
8lj
mUkv
II8
Bsb
oWlo
b M
Uoqk
bop
8ob
afq 5
dofW
lib
ObW
rofqf
bp !R
O5
%Pb
ipbv
5as
fplo
v D
olrm
NlV
boq T
( 6Uf
oa
8l
Jlo
dUk
Hbb
dUk
Tba
db M
Uoqk
bop
Tfii
fUj
6iU
fo
8l
8li
ifkp
Oqb
tUo
qB
S5
Afj
bkpf
lkp
5od
rp N
bpbU
oWe
8lo
mJ
W5aU
jp
Tofd
eq N
Udbk
FkW
5qiU
kqfW
Bnr
fqfbp
IIM
Abr
qpWe
b 6
Ukh
Cfop
q Dil
VUi O
qlWh
Volh
fkd
01.02.2012
Amazon.com Inc
Ownership Statistics Geographic Ownership Distribution
Shares Outstanding (M) 455.0 United States 69.24%
Float 80.5% Unknown Country 21.41%
Short Interest (M) 8.5 Britain 4.96%
Short Interest as % of Float 2.31% Japan 1.10%
Days to Cover Shorts 1.71 Canada 0.76%
Institutional Ownership 71.39% Luxembourg 0.64%
Retail Ownership 9.11% Switzerland 0.40%
Insider Ownership 19.50% Others 1.49%
Institutional Ownership DistributionInvestment Advisor 69.64%Individual 21.41%Hedge Fund Manager 3.94%Pension Fund (Erisa) 1.98%
Pricing data is in USD Others 3.03%
Top 20 Owners:
Holder Name Position Position Change Market Value % of Ownership Report Date Source Country
BEZOS JEFFREY P 88'068'443 -9'049 17'124'028'057 19.37% 21.11.2011 Form 4 n/aCAPITAL WORLD INVEST 23'556'750 -2'041'230 4'580'374'470 5.18% 30.09.2011 13F UNITED STATESFIDELITY MANAGEMENT 20'458'172 3'699'158 3'977'886'964 4.50% 30.09.2011 13F UNITED STATEST ROWE PRICE ASSOCIA 19'120'476 -1'636'255 3'717'785'353 4.20% 30.09.2011 13F UNITED STATESVANGUARD GROUP INC 14'299'080 262'080 2'780'313'115 3.14% 31.12.2011 13F UNITED STATESSTATE STREET CORP 12'526'060 -163'716 2'435'567'106 2.75% 30.09.2011 13F UNITED STATESBAILLIE GIFFORD AND 10'021'018 -1'479'753 1'948'486'740 2.20% 30.09.2011 13F BRITAINJENNISON ASSOCIATES 9'495'743 -590'892 1'846'352'269 2.09% 30.09.2011 13F UNITED STATESBLACKROCK INSTITUTIO 8'593'230 20'158 1'670'867'641 1.89% 30.09.2011 13F UNITED STATESCAPITAL RESEARCH GLO 7'175'300 2'833'300 1'395'165'332 1.58% 30.09.2011 13F UNITED STATESJP MORGAN CHASE & CO 7'037'473 -190'413 1'368'366'250 1.55% 30.09.2011 13F UNITED STATESSANDS CAPITAL MANAGE 6'212'218 -6'283 1'207'903'668 1.37% 30.09.2011 13F UNITED STATESINVESCO LTD 6'007'355 249'328 1'168'070'106 1.32% 30.09.2011 13F UNITED STATESNORTHERN TRUST CORPO 5'122'089 134'893 995'938'985 1.13% 30.09.2011 13F UNITED STATESAMERIPRISE FINANCIAL 4'884'061 301'627 949'656'821 1.07% 30.09.2011 13F UNITED STATESBANK OF NEW YORK MEL 4'782'016 272'489 929'815'191 1.05% 31.12.2011 13F UNITED STATESMARSICO CAPITAL MANA 4'325'907 -220'142 841'129'357 0.95% 30.09.2011 13F UNITED STATESTIAA CREF INVESTMENT 3'671'998 688'107 713'983'291 0.81% 30.09.2011 13F UNITED STATESUBS GLOBAL ASSET MAN 3'564'290 -364'853 693'040'548 0.78% 30.09.2011 13F UNITED STATESPRIMECAP MANAGEMENT 3'432'400 -341'700 667'395'856 0.75% 30.09.2011 13F UNITED STATES
Top 5 Insiders:
Holder Name Position Position Change Market Value % of Ownership Report Date Source
BEZOS JEFFREY P 88'068'443 -9'049 17'124'028'057 19.37% 21.11.2011 Form 4
PIACENTINI DIEGO 109'646 21'319'568 0.02% 15.11.2011 Form 4
WILKE JEFFREY A 95'410 6'002 18'551'520 0.02% 15.11.2011 Form 4
STONESIFER PATRICIA Q 54'549 -5'000 10'606'508 0.01% 01.12.2011 Form 4
BLACKBURN JEFFREY M 52'152 3'877 10'140'435 0.01% 15.11.2011 Form 4
Company Analysis - Ownership
Ownership Type
71%
9%
20%
FkpqfqrqflkUi Ltkbopefm NbqUfi Ltkbopefm Fkpfabo Ltkbopefm
Geographic Ownership
70%
1%5%
1%1%1% 0%
21%
Rkfqba OqUqbp Rkhkltk 8lrkqov 6ofqUfkGUmUk 8UkUaU IrubjVlrodOtfqwboiUka Lqebop
Institutional Ownership
70%
4%
3%2%
21%
Fksbpqjbkq 5asfplo FkafsfarUi Ebadb Crka JUkUdboMbkpflk Crka !BofpU% Lqebop
TOP 20 ALL
Q.M.S Advisors | tel: +41 (0)78 922 08 77 | e-mail: [email protected] |
Amazon.com IncFinancial information is in USD (M)
Periodicity: 12/01 12/02 12/03 12/04 12/05 12/06 12/07 12/08 12/09 12/10 12/11 12/12E 12/13E 12/14E
Income Statement
Revenue 3'122 3'933 5'264 6'921 8'490 10'711 14'835 19'166 24'509 34'204 48'077 64'363 82'394 106'279
- Cost of Goods Sold 2'324 2'940 4'007 5'319 6'451 8'255 11'482 14'896 18'978 26'561 37'288
Gross Income 799 993 1'257 1'602 2'039 2'456 3'353 4'270 5'531 7'643 10'789 14'160 18'235 23'988
- Selling, General & Admin Expenses 1'029 887 986 1'162 1'607 2'067 2'698 3'428 4'402 6'237 9'927
(Research & Dev Costs) 241 216 208 251 451 662 818 1'033 1'240 1'734 2'909
Operating Income -231 106 271 440 432 389 655 842 1'129 1'406 862 1'035 1'919 3'349
- Interest Expense 139 143 130 107 92 78 77 71 34 39 65
- Foreign Exchange Losses (Gains) 0 0 3 10 0 0 0 0 0
- Net Non-Operating Losses (Gains) 187 113 102 -33 -88 -66 -82 -121 -60 -137 -125
Pretax Income -557 -150 35 356 428 377 660 892 1'155 1'504 922 1'006 1'895 3'478
- Income Tax Expense 0 0 0 -233 95 187 184 247 253 352 291
Income Before XO Items -557 -150 35 588 333 190 476 645 902 1'152 631
- Extraordinary Loss Net of Tax 11 -1 0 0 -26 0 0 0 0 0 0
- Minority Interests 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Diluted EPS Before XO Items (1.53) (0.40) 0.08 1.39 0.78 0.45 1.12 1.49 2.04 2.53 1.37
Net Income Adjusted* -157 66 256 395 269 190 476 606 942 1'152 631 1'238 1'995 3'316
EPS Adjusted (0.43) 0.17 0.61 0.93 0.63 0.45 1.12 1.40 2.13 2.53 1.37 2.89 4.30 7.03
Dividends Per Share 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Payout Ratio % 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Total Shares Outstanding 373 388 403 410 416 414 431 428 444 451 455
Diluted Shares Outstanding 364 378 419 425 426 424 424 432 442 456 461
EBITDA 35 193 349 516 553 594 901 1'129 1'507 1'974 1'945 2'873 3'957 5'596
*Net income excludes extraordinary gains and losses and one-time charges.
Equivalent Estimates
Company Analysis - Financials I/IV
Fiscal Year
Periodicity: 12/01 12/02 12/03 12/04 12/05 12/06 12/07 12/08 12/09 12/10 12/11 12/12E 12/13E 12/14E
Balance Sheet
Total Current Assets 1207.92004 1615.67603 1820.80896 2539.396 2929 3373 5164 6157 9797 13747 17490
+ Cash & Near Cash Items 540 738 1'102 1'303 1'013 1'022 2'539 2'769 3'444 3'777 5'269
+ Short Term Investments 456 563 293 477 987 997 573 958 2'922 4'985 4'307
+ Accounts & Notes Receivable 0 0 0 199 274 399 705 827 988 1'587 2'571
+ Inventories 144 202 294 480 566 877 1'200 1'399 2'171 3'202 4'992
+ Other Current Assets 68 112 132 81 89 78 147 204 272 196 351
Total Long-Term Assets 430 375 341 709 767 990 1'321 2'157 4'016 5'050 7'788
+ Long Term Investments 18 15 15 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Gross Fixed Assets 438 483 372 423 571 824 1'023 1'409 1'915 3'256
Accumulated Depreciation 166 243 147 177 223 367 480 555 625 842
+ Net Fixed Assets 272 239 224 246 348 457 543 854 1'290 2'414 4'417
+ Other Long Term Assets 140 120 102 463 419 533 778 1'303 2'726 2'636 3'371
Total Current Liabilities 921 1'066 1'253 1'620 1'929 2'532 3'714 4'746 7'364 10'372 14'896
+ Accounts Payable 445 618 820 1'142 1'366 1'816 2'795 3'594 5'605 8'051 11'145
+ Short Term Borrowings 15 13 4 2 5 51 43 59 305
+ Other Short Term Liabilities 462 435 429 476 558 665 876 1'093 1'759 2'016 3'751
Total Long Term Liabilities 2'156 2'277 1'945 1'855 1'521 1'400 1'574 896 1'192 1'561 2'625
+ Long Term Borrowings 2'156 2'277 1'945 1'855 1'521 1'247 1'282 409 727
+ Other Long Term Borrowings 0 0 0 0 0 153 292 487 1'192 834 2'625
Total Liabilities 3'078 3'343 3'198 3'476 3'450 3'932 5'288 5'642 8'556 11'933 17'521
+ Long Preferred Equity 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
+ Minority Interest 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
+ Share Capital & APIC 1'467 1'654 1'903 2'129 2'267 2'521 3'067 4'125 5'741 6'330 6'995
+ Retained Earnings & Other Equity -2'907 -3'007 -2'940 -2'356 -2'021 -2'090 -1'870 -1'453 -484 534 762
Total Shareholders Equity -1'440 -1'353 -1'036 -227 246 431 1'197 2'672 5'257 6'864 7'757
Total Liabilities & Equity 1'638 1'990 2'162 3'249 3'696 4'363 6'485 8'314 13'813 18'797 25'278
Book Value Per Share -3.86 -3.49 -2.57 -0.55 0.59 1.04 2.78 6.24 11.84 15.22 17.05 20.57 24.08 30.72
Tangible Book Value Per Share -4.07 -3.68 -2.74 -0.89 0.18 0.57 2.26 5.22 9.06 12.23 12.75
Company Analysis - Financials II/IV
Periodicity: 12/01 12/02 12/03 12/04 12/05 12/06 12/07 12/08 12/09 12/10 12/11 12/12E 12/13E 12/14E
Cash Flows
Net Income -567 -149 35 588 359 190 476 645 902 1'152 631 821 1'337 2'516
+ Depreciation & Amortization 266 88 78 76 121 205 246 287 378 568 1'083
+ Other Non-Cash Adjustments 146 196 221 -202 100 23 -149 51 401 194 725
+ Changes in Non-Cash Capital 36 40 57 104 153 284 832 714 1'612 1'581 1'464
Cash From Operating Activities -120 174 392 567 733 702 1'405 1'697 3'293 3'495 3'903
+ Disposal of Fixed Assets 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
+ Capital Expenditures -50 -39 -46 -89 -204 -216 -224 -333 -373 -979 -1'811 -2'012 -2'470 -3'097
+ Increase in Investments -567 -636 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
+ Decrease in Investments 370 553 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
+ Other Investing Activities -6 0 283 -228 -574 -117 266 -866 -1'964 -2'381 -119
Cash From Investing Activities -253 -122 237 -318 -778 -333 42 -1'199 -2'337 -3'360 -1'930
+ Dividends Paid 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
+ Change in Short Term Borrowings 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
+ Increase in Long Term Borrowings 10 0 0 0 11 98 24 87 87 143 177
+ Decrease in Long Term Borrowings -20 -15 -495 -157 -270 -383 -74 -355 -472 -221 -444
+ Increase in Capital Stocks 116 122 163 60 66 137 348 170 105 259 62
+ Decrease in Capital Stocks 0 0 0 0 0 -252 -248 -100 0 0 -277
+ Other Financing Activities -16 38 67 49 -52 40 20 -70 -1 17 1
Cash From Financing Activities 91 145 -265 -49 -245 -360 70 -268 -281 198 -481
Net Changes in Cash -282 198 364 200 -290 9 1'517 230 675 333 1'492
Free Cash Flow (CFO-CAPEX) -170 135 346 477 529 486 1'181 1'364 2'920 2'516 2'092 1'007 1'806 2'896
Free Cash Flow To Firm 476 601 525 1'237 1'415 2'947 2'546 2'136
Free Cash Flow To Equity -180 120 -149 320 270 201 1'131 1'096 2'535 2'438 1'825
Free Cash Flow per Share -0.47 0.36 0.88 1.18 1.28 1.17 2.86 3.22 6.74 5.63 4.62
Company Analysis - Financials III/IV
Periodicity: 12/01 12/02 12/03 12/04 12/05 12/06 12/07 12/08 12/09 12/10 12/11 12/12E 12/13E 12/14E
Ratio Analysis
Valuation Ratios
Price Earnings 111.1x 86.3x 47.6x 74.8x 87.7x 82.7x 36.9x 63.5x 71.1x 126.4x 67.4x 45.2x 27.7x
EV to EBIT 78.7x 80.4x 41.4x 44.3x 40.1x 58.2x 22.2x 52.2x
EV to EBITDA 148.6x 43.0x 62.4x 35.3x 34.6x 26.3x 42.3x 16.6x 37.2x 29.2x 21.2x 15.0x
Price to Sales 1.3x 1.8x 4.0x 2.6x 2.3x 1.5x 2.6x 1.1x 2.4x 2.4x 1.6x 1.4x 1.1x 0.8x
Price to Book 79.7x 37.9x 33.4x 8.2x 11.4x 11.8x 10.2x 9.5x 8.1x 6.3x
Dividend Yield 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 25.6% 25.2% 23.9% 23.1% 24.0% 22.9% 22.6% 22.3% 22.6% 22.3% 22.4% 22.0% 22.1% 22.6%
EBITDA Margin 1.1% 4.9% 6.6% 7.5% 6.5% 5.5% 6.1% 5.9% 6.1% 5.8% 4.0% 4.5% 4.8% 5.3%
Operating Margin -7.4% 2.7% 5.1% 6.4% 5.1% 3.6% 4.4% 4.4% 4.6% 4.1% 1.8% 1.6% 2.3% 3.2%
Profit Margin -18.2% -3.8% 0.7% 8.5% 4.2% 1.8% 3.2% 3.4% 3.7% 3.4% 1.3% 1.9% 2.4% 3.1%
Return on Assets -30.1% -8.2% 1.7% 21.8% 10.3% 4.7% 8.8% 8.7% 8.2% 7.1% 2.9% 4.4% 6.4% 8.7%
Return on Equity 56.1% 58.5% 33.3% 22.8% 19.0% 8.6% 11.3% 19.2% 30.0%
Leverage & Coverage Ratios
Current Ratio 1.31 1.52 1.45 1.57 1.52 1.33 1.39 1.30 1.33 1.33 1.17
Quick Ratio 1.08 1.22 1.11 1.22 1.18 0.95 1.03 0.96 1.00 1.00 0.82
Interest Coverage Ratio (EBIT/I) -1.66 0.74 2.08 4.11 4.70 4.99 8.51 11.86 33.21 36.05 13.26
Tot Debt/Capital 2.97 2.44 2.13 1.14 0.86 0.75 0.53 0.15 0.13
Tot Debt/Equity 6.20 3.01 1.11 0.18 0.15
Others
Asset Turnover 1.66 2.17 2.54 2.56 2.45 2.66 2.74 2.59 2.22 2.10 2.18
Accounts Receivable Turnover 69.52 35.89 31.83 26.88 25.02 27.01 26.57 23.13
Accounts Payable Turnover 4.93 5.64 5.70 5.61 5.21 5.38 5.12 4.73 4.29 4.04 4.07
Inventory Turnover 14.60 16.99 16.14 13.75 12.34 11.44 11.06 11.46 10.63 9.89 9.10
Effective Tax Rate 0.0% 22.2% 49.6% 27.9% 27.7% 21.9% 23.4% 31.6%
Company Analysis - Financials IV/IV
AMAZON.COM INC
EBAY INC GOOGLE INC-CL A YAHOO! INCIAC/INTERACTIVE
CNETFLIX INC BEST BUY CO INC TESCO PLC BARNES & NOBLE WH SMITH PLC TARGET CORP
COSTCO WHOLESALE
MACY'S INC SEARS HOLDINGS HOME DEPOT INC
12/2011 12/2011 12/2011 12/2011 12/2010 12/2011 02/2011 02/2011 04/2011 08/2011 01/2011 08/2011 01/2011 01/2011 01/2011246.71 35.35 670.25 18.84 43.89 304.79 35.45 423.00 21.06 568.00 56.00 88.68 35.92 92.80 45.50
14.10.2011 17.02.2011 04.01.2012 09.05.2011 07.11.2011 13.07.2011 07.02.2011 13.05.2011 20.06.2011 27.10.2011 27.10.2011 02.12.2011 19.01.2012 17.02.2011 20.01.2012160.59 26.86 473.02 11.09 28.25 62.37 21.79 311.00 8.45 433.70 45.28 69.54 21.69 28.89 28.13
18.03.2011 19.08.2011 24.06.2011 08.08.2011 01.02.2011 30.11.2011 04.10.2011 16.01.2012 19.04.2011 04.04.2011 08.08.2011 16.03.2011 03.02.2011 05.01.2012 09.08.20113'532'480 7'548'833 2'142'716 10'731'010 1'096'886 12'044'650 9'746'232 6'309'698 1'023'534 96'039 6'981'953 1'844'580 6'593'548 1'548'550 10'344'216
194.44 31.60 580.11 15.47 43.07 120.20 23.95 322.45 12.07 561.50 50.81 82.27 33.69 42.14 44.39
-21.2% -10.6% -13.4% -17.9% -1.9% -60.6% -32.4% -23.8% -42.7% -1.1% -9.3% -7.2% -6.2% -54.6% -2.4%21.1% 17.6% 22.6% 39.5% 52.5% 92.7% 9.9% 3.7% 42.8% 29.5% 12.2% 18.3% 55.3% 45.9% 57.8%455.0 1'286.5 324.9 1'240.3 88.4 55.4 392.6 8'046.5 57.1 139.0 704.0 434.3 423.3 109.0 1'623.0
88'422.4 40'660.1 187'890.4 19'187.4 3'533.1 6'658.9 8'390.1 25'855.1 726.3 765.5 34'123.8 35'781.6 14'143.8 4'503.9 68'430.2
1'032.0 2'089.6 4'204.0 134.9 95.8 200.0 1'709.0 11'075.0 313.1 - 15'726.0 2'153.0 7'425.0 3'532.0 9'749.0 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 50.4 59.9 - 690.0 88.0 - - - 571.0 - 103.0 -
9'576.0 5'929.4 45'416.0 2'529.9 1'306.1 797.8 1'125.0 2'892.0 59.4 41.0 1'712.0 5'613.0 1'464.0 1'375.0 545.0 83'993.4 36'820.3 146'678.4 16'842.8 2'877.5 6'061.1 8'941.1 34'790.1 1'169.3 724.5 52'271.8 32'668.6 20'002.8 8'514.9 76'979.2
LFY 48'077.0 11'651.7 37'905.0 4'984.2 1'636.8 3'204.6 50'272.0 60'931.0 6'998.6 1'273.0 67'390.0 88'915.0 25'003.0 43'326.0 67'997.0LTM 48'077.0 11'651.7 37'905.0 4'984.2 1'913.9 3'204.6 50'642.0 62'988.0 7'006.8 1'273.0 69'238.0 91'304.0 25'950.0 42'747.0 69'507.0
CY+1 64'362.9 13'828.9 40'207.1 4'673.8 2'028.3 3'646.7 51'558.9 65'529.9 7'326.8 1'249.5 69'741.2 97'097.8 26'387.8 41'700.0 69'837.1 CY+2 82'393.8 15'735.7 47'772.0 4'855.3 2'405.5 4'227.7 51'961.7 68'891.2 7'709.2 1'254.4 72'661.6 103'321.2 27'314.7 40'495.0 72'199.9
LFY 2.0x 3.0x 4.4x 3.5x 1.6x 1.0x 0.2x 0.6x 0.2x 0.5x 0.8x 0.4x 0.8x 0.3x 0.9xLTM 2.2x 3.0x 4.4x 3.5x 1.4x 1.0x 0.2x 0.6x 0.2x 0.5x 0.8x 0.4x 0.7x 0.3x 0.9x
CY+1 1.2x 2.7x 3.5x 3.6x 1.4x 1.7x 0.2x 0.5x 0.2x 0.6x 0.7x 0.3x 0.7x 0.2x 1.1xCY+2 0.9x 2.1x 2.7x 3.4x 1.2x 1.3x 0.2x 0.5x 0.2x 0.6x 0.7x 0.3x 0.7x 0.2x 1.1x
LFY 1'945.0 3'313.0 13'593.0 1'473.0 169.2 428.8 3'314.0 4'804.0 179.5 129.0 7'336.0 3'303.0 3'069.0 1'307.0 7'557.0LTM 1'945.0 3'313.0 13'593.0 1'473.0 249.5 428.8 3'081.0 5'043.0 194.3 129.0 7'506.0 3'330.0 3'399.0 745.0 8'059.0
CY+1 2'873.2 4'394.3 19'082.3 1'531.4 369.2 107.3 3'111.3 5'285.6 193.5 137.6 7'397.8 3'687.7 3'447.9 352.7 8'114.9 CY+2 3'957.2 5'151.7 22'481.2 1'605.1 473.5 346.0 3'073.5 5'524.5 240.3 143.5 7'356.5 4'094.0 3'598.2 367.0 8'677.3
LFY 48.3x 10.6x 12.4x 12.0x 15.3x 7.6x 2.9x 8.0x 6.3x 5.1x 7.5x 9.8x 6.2x 9.5x 8.5xLTM 47.7x 10.6x 12.4x 12.0x 10.4x 7.6x 3.1x 7.6x 5.8x 5.1x 7.4x 9.7x 5.6x 16.7x 8.0x
CY+1 27.7x 8.4x 7.5x 11.0x 7.9x 56.6x 3.2x 6.2x 6.2x 5.4x 6.7x 9.1x 5.7x 19.0x 9.6xCY+2 18.7x 6.3x 5.8x 10.3x 5.9x 16.1x 3.1x 5.8x 5.1x 5.0x 6.8x 8.2x 5.3x 18.8x 8.9x
LFY 1.37 1.76 29.76 0.84 0.11 4.26 3.44 0.35 -1.31 0.52 3.86 3.31 2.11 1.21 2.03LTM 1.37 1.75 29.74 0.82 0.42 4.26 3.26 0.36 -1.20 0.52 4.22 3.33 2.76 -2.21 2.32
CY+1 2.89 2.29 42.26 0.85 2.08 0.28 3.38 0.34 (1.32) 0.59 4.23 3.83 2.79 (4.86) 2.39 CY+2 4.30 2.64 49.36 0.95 2.53 2.89 3.72 0.35 (0.63) 0.65 4.27 4.36 3.25 (6.00) 2.75
LFY 141.9x 18.1x 19.5x 18.9x 102.5x 28.2x 7.3x 8.9x - 10.8x 12.0x 24.7x 12.2x - 19.1xLTM 141.9x 18.1x 19.5x 18.9x 102.5x 28.2x 7.3x 8.3x - 10.8x 12.0x 24.7x 12.2x - 19.1x
CY+1 67.4x 13.8x 13.7x 18.3x 20.8x 429.3x 7.1x 9.4x - 9.5x 12.0x 21.5x 12.1x - 18.6xCY+2 45.2x 12.0x 11.8x 16.3x 17.0x 41.5x 6.4x 9.1x - 8.6x 11.9x 18.9x 10.4x - 16.1x
1 Year 40.6% 27.3% 29.3% (21.2%) 21.5% 48.2% 1.2% 7.1% 20.5% (3.0%) 3.1% 14.1% 6.4% (1.6%) 2.8%5 Year 34.6% 15.5% 27.5% (4.6%) (5.4%) 26.5% 7.6% 9.0% 12.8% - 3.9% 8.9% 0.0% (4.3%) (2.4%)1 Year (1.5%) 16.8% 15.4% (2.6%) 73.9% 35.9% 3.1% 7.6% (37.6%) 3.2% 9.6% 14.7% 15.2% (21.5%) 14.3%5 Year 26.8% 11.0% 27.0% (0.1%) (23.9%) 41.5% 9.6% 9.6% (15.9%) 6.5% 5.1% 9.0% (0.3%) (14.2%) (7.1%)
LTM 4.0% 28.4% 35.9% 29.6% 10.3% 13.4% 6.6% 7.9% 2.6% 10.1% 10.9% 3.7% 12.3% 3.0% 11.1%CY+1 4.5% 31.8% 47.5% 32.8% 18.2% 2.9% 6.0% 8.1% 2.6% 11.0% 10.6% 3.8% 13.1% 0.8% 11.6%CY+2 4.8% 32.7% 47.1% 33.1% 19.7% 8.2% 5.9% 8.0% 3.1% 11.4% 10.1% 4.0% 13.2% 0.9% 12.0%
Total Debt / Equity % 0.0% 11.7% 7.2% 1.1% 3.9% 30.8% 25.9% 67.0% 38.2% 0.0% 101.5% 17.9% 134.3% 41.5% 51.6%Total Debt / Capital % 13.1% 10.4% 6.7% 1.1% 3.7% 23.6% 19.0% 40.0% 27.6% 0.0% 50.4% 14.6% 57.3% 29.1% 34.0%Total Debt / EBITDA 0.523x 0.631x 0.309x 0.092x 0.566x 0.466x 0.516x 2.305x 1.745x 0.000x 2.144x 0.652x 2.419x 2.702x 1.290xNet Debt / EBITDA -3.916x -1.159x -3.032x -1.626x -7.153x -1.394x 0.176x 1.703x 1.413x -0.318x 1.910x -1.048x 1.942x 1.650x 1.218xEBITDA / Int. Expense 29.923x - 234.362x - 31.309x 21.414x 38.092x 7.625x - 129.000x 9.627x 26.424x 5.255x 4.216x 14.178x
S&P LT Credit Rating NR A AA- NR BB BB- BBB- A- NR - A+ A+ BBB- CCC+ A-S&P LT Credit Rating Date 07.12.2011 02.03.2010 15.07.2010 18.04.2008 21.08.2008 28.11.2011 18.11.2008 29.07.2008 14.09.2004 - 20.11.2007 16.02.2010 18.05.2011 05.01.2012 16.11.2011Moody's LT Credit Rating WR A2 Aa2 - Ba3 Ba2 Baa2 A3 *- - - A2 A2 Baa3 - A3Moody's LT Credit Rating Date 28.05.2003 21.10.2010 16.05.2011 - 21.08.2008 28.10.2009 20.06.2008 20.01.2012 - - 27.11.2007 12.08.1997 09.01.2012 - 30.08.2011
52-Week High Date
52-Week Low
Latest Fiscal Year:
52-Week High
Total Debt Market Capitalization
Daily Volume
52-Week Low % Change
Current Price (2/dd/yy)
52-Week High % Change
Cash and Equivalents
EBITDA
EV/EBITDA
Enterprise Value
Valuation
Preferred Stock
52-Week Low Date
Minority Interest
Total Common Shares (M)
P/E
Revenue Growth
Total Revenue
EV/Total Revenue
EPS
EBITDA Growth
EBITDA Margin
Credit Ratings
Leverage/Coverage Ratios
Company Analysis - Peers Comparision