Office of Science

Office of Biological and Environmental Research

Community Modeling and Long-term Predictions of the Integrated Water Cycle

Topic 6 Report Out

Washington DC

September 24-26, 2012

Department of Energy • Office of Science • Biological and Environmental Research2 Water Cycle Workshop

Topic 6: Use-inspired water cycle research to meet the most pressing energy andenvironmental challenges

• Kristen Averyt

• Jared Bales

• Kate Calvin

• Dan Cayan

• Paul Faeth

• Jay Famiglietti

• Auroop Ganguly

• Pierre Gentine

• Mohammad Hejazi

• Kathy Hibbard

• Paul Houser

• Kathy Jacobs

• Tony Janetos

• Brian O’Neill

• Adam Schlosser

• Soroosh Sorooshian

• Ken Strzepek

• Claudia Tebaldi

• Vince Tidwell

• John Weyant

• Craig Zamuda

Department of Energy • Office of Science • Biological and Environmental Research3 Water Cycle Workshop 3

Water is critical to every aspect of the North American economy, public health,

energy, and food production

Population, climate and environmental change are quickly modifying the water

supply-demand balance

We need to establish the scientific basis, observation, prediction and decision approaches

to manage water security and sustainability

Ensuring America's water security

Department of Energy • Office of Science • Biological and Environmental Research4 Water Cycle Workshop

Front Rang

e

Four CornersChama

Rio Grande

Utah Project

Powell and Mead

Arizona and Lwr Colorado

Southern

California

Northern Californi

a

UprCo

WATER EVALUATION AND PLANNING (WEAP) SYSTEM

Department of Energy • Office of Science • Biological and Environmental Research5 Water Cycle Workshop

If water is constrained, the fuel mix will change to favor options that use less water.

Source: Faeth, unpublished.

We assume a 20% cap

on wind.

Wind

Gas

Coal

Nuclear

Wind

Nuclear

Gas

Coal

< 2010-2040

U.S. Fuel mix, w/o & w/ water constraint

5

Department of Energy • Office of Science • Biological and Environmental Research6 Water Cycle Workshop

6

D (P – E): 2030’s vs. CurrentDarker brown: DryerDarker Blue: Wetter

CMIP3 MMEs MedianNine CMIP3 models

CMIP5 MMEs MedianSeven CMIP5 models

Department of Energy • Office of Science • Biological and Environmental Research7 Water Cycle Workshop

Water Availability

Department of Energy • Office of Science • Biological and Environmental Research8 Water Cycle Workshop

Topic 6: Use-inspired water cycle research`

6.1 Careful attention needs to be given to the hierarchy of models

6.2 How does water availability influence energy sector development and vice-versa

6.3 How does water availability influence food sector development and vice-versa

6.4 How does water availability influence tradeoffs in food/energy sector development

6.5 Designing infrastructure for intensifying extreme events

Priority Research Directions (3 to 5)

Department of Energy • Office of Science • Biological and Environmental Research9 Water Cycle Workshop

Scientific Needs/Opportunities

A. CLM and related models are unlikely to incorporate detailed representation of water use dynamics in the foreseeable future.

B. Set of policy relevant questions require global perspective

C.Additional set of questions require a regional/local viewD.Uncertainty associated with modeling both physical and

social dynamics

Careful attention needs to be given to the hierarchy of models

Topic 6: Use-inspired water cycle research`

Department of Energy • Office of Science • Biological and Environmental Research10 Water Cycle Workshop

Research Approaches

A. Develop hierarchy of modelsi. Limit use modeling in CLM to that which drives changes in

atmospheric or ocean circulation dynamicsii. Global model at large watershed scale to address global

policy issues (emissions, food security, energy security, etc.)iii. Detailed regional scale models

B. Work to standardize” information passed between models (downscaled climate data, changes in land cover)

C.Multiple vs. single community model paradigm?D.Risk based analysisE. Encourage stakeholder engagement in analysis design

Careful attention needs to be given to the hierarchy of models

Topic 6: Use-inspired water cycle research`

Department of Energy • Office of Science • Biological and Environmental Research11 Water Cycle Workshop

Department of Energy • Office of Science • Biological and Environmental Research12 Water Cycle Workshop

Scientific/User Impacts

A. Improved model interoperabilityB. Broader engagement by stakeholders and decision

makersC. Improved policy relevance of analysis

Careful attention needs to be given to the hierarchy of models

Topic 6: Use-inspired water cycle research`

Department of Energy • Office of Science • Biological and Environmental Research13 Water Cycle Workshop

Scientific Needs/OpportunitiesA. Water supply requirements

i. Total runoff and variability (high vs. lows)ii. Timing of runoff relative to storage capacityiii. Frequency between high and low flowsiv. Duration of low flows (severity, return period, duration of droughts)v. Groundwater

1) Recharge2) surface water discharge3) Volume available

vi. Brackish water availability/ Water Reuse opportunity (cost, technology)

vii. Water quality issues1) Pollution2) Effluent temperature3) Non-point sediment/nutrient4) Quality sensitive to use patterns

Water-Energy-Food Nexus

Topic 6: Use-inspired water cycle research`

Department of Energy • Office of Science • Biological and Environmental Research14 Water Cycle Workshop

Scientific Needs/OpportunitiesB. Demand Side requirements

i. Data requirementsa) Improved estimates of food/energy/public health/hazards

management. Engaging stakeholders in process (example, Food and Agriculture 2030 estimates).

b) Current baseline data (withdrawal/consumption, source, sector)ii. Processes

a) Technology evolution and adoption. How big of impact can a particular technology have at given cost levels

b) Relations of demands to economics (changing diet, greater energy use, improved water conservation).

c) Geospatial economic and demographic drivers d) Tight linkage to evaporation and transpiration demandse) Link between precipitation (timing/amount) and

irrigation/industrial/municipal practicesf) Clearly articulate energy technology pathways and the related

impacts on water demand

Water-Energy-Food Nexus

Topic 6: Use-inspired water cycle research`

Department of Energy • Office of Science • Biological and Environmental Research15 Water Cycle Workshop

Scientific Needs/Opportunities

C. Institutional requirementsi. Modeling water marketsii. Reservoir operationsiii. Treaties/Compactsiv. Environmental flows

Water-Energy-Food Nexus

Topic 6: Use-inspired water cycle research`

Department of Energy • Office of Science • Biological and Environmental Research16 Water Cycle Workshop

Research Approaches

A. Models largely exist; however, implementation issues exist:i. Computational burdenii. Scaling processes/parameters from regional scale

(where models largely exist) to large river basin scale

iii. Data availability, proprietary data (international and industrial)

B. Biggest challenge is to integrate the linkage with water explicitly (food/energy already represented in IAMs)

C. Expand engagement with social sciences

Water-Energy-Food Nexus

Topic 6: Use-inspired water cycle research`

Department of Energy • Office of Science • Biological and Environmental Research17 Water Cycle Workshop

Scientific/User Impacts

A. Address broader suite of policy questionsB. Water conveys climate effects to other sectors

Water-Energy-Food Nexus

Topic 6: Use-inspired water cycle research`

Department of Energy • Office of Science • Biological and Environmental Research18 Water Cycle Workshop

Scientific Needs/Opportunities

Designing infrastructure for intensifying extreme events

Topic 6: Use-inspired water cycle research`