community growth & projections report€¦ · figure 1: k-12 enrollment by wdpsd grade...

West De Pere School District Community Growth & Projections Report

February 2018

Community Growth & Projections Report

February 2018


February 2018

ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS

Board of Education Joe Bergner, President Jenni Fuss, Vice President Barb Van Deurzen, Treasurer Tom Van De Hei, Clerk Scott Borley

Administration John Zegers, Superintendent Kevin Hanson, Business Manager Christie Thiesfeldt, Administrative Assistant

Consultants MDRoffers Consulting Project Management and Planning www.mdroffers.com

Applied Population Laboratory Mapping and Data Support www.apl.wisc.edu

Osterberg Planning Research and Communications www.osterbergplanning.com

Special thanks to Bray Architects, various officials and staff from

the municipalities, residential developers, and builders within the WDPSD community for their contributions to this report.

http://www.mdroffers.com/

http://www.apl.wisc.edu/


February 2018

TABLE OF CONTENTS

ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS ............................................................................................................................................................................... 2

TABLE OF CONTENTS................................................................................................................................................................................... 3

I. INTRODUCTION AND SUMMARY ..................................................................................................................................................... 6

A. Purpose and Overview ..................................................................................................................................................................... 6

Map 1: Current District, Attendance Area, and Neighborhood Boundaries .......................................................................................... 7

B. Statistical Summary ......................................................................................................................................................................... 8

C. Housing Unit Growth Projections Summary .................................................................................................................................... 8

D. Student Enrollment Projections Summary ................................................................................................................................... 9

E. Using this Report for Long Range Facilities Planning..................................................................................................................... 13

II. WEST DE PERE SCHOOL DISTRICT OVERVIEW ............................................................................................................................... 14

A. General Location and Organization ............................................................................................................................................... 14

B. Existing West De Pere School District K-12 School Buildings ........................................................................................................ 15

III. ENROLLMENT, HOUSING, AND DEMOGRAPHIC TRENDS .............................................................................................................. 17

A. Student Enrollment Trends and Implications ................................................................................................................................ 17

Figure 1: K-12 Enrollment by WDPSD Grade Grouping, Sept. 2008 to Sept. 2017 .............................................................................. 17

B. Open Enrollment Overview ........................................................................................................................................................... 17

C. Private and Tribal School Options for WDPSD Residents .............................................................................................................. 18

D. School Capacity Analysis ............................................................................................................................................................ 18

E. Recent Residential Building Construction ...................................................................................................................................... 19


February 2018

Figure 2: Housing Starts by WDPSD Municipality, 2010-2017.............................................................................................................. 19

Figure 3: Percent of New Dwelling Units in the WDPSD...................................................................................................................... 20

Figure 4: Town of Lawrence Housing Units Enabled by Building Permits, 2010-2017 ......................................................................... 21

Figure 5: City of De Pere Housing Units Enabled by Building Permits, 2010-2017 .............................................................................. 21

Figure 6: Village of Hobart Housing Units Enabled by Building Permits, 2010-2017 ........................................................................... 21

F. Trends in Births and Preschool Aged Children .............................................................................................................................. 22

Figure 7: Births Within the WDPSD, 2005-2014 ................................................................................................................................... 23

G. Broad Housing, Demographic, and Economic Trends ................................................................................................................ 23

Map 2: Home Sales by Neighborhood .................................................................................................................................................. 25

IV. COMMUNITY AND DEVELOPER PLAN ANALYSIS............................................................................................................................ 26

A. City of De Pere Plans, Agreements, and Expectations ................................................................................................................... 27

Figure 8: City of De Pere Future Land Use Map .................................................................................................................................... 28

B. Village of Hobart Plans, Agreements, and Expectations ............................................................................................................... 29

Figure 9: Village of Hobart Future Land Use Map ................................................................................................................................ 30

C. Town of Lawrence Plans, Agreements, and Expectations ............................................................................................................. 31

Figure 10: Town of Lawrence Future Land Use Map ............................................................................................................................ 32

D. Village of Ashwaubenon Plans, Agreements, and Expectations ................................................................................................ 33

Figure 11: Village of Ashwaubenon Comprehensive Plan District Map ............................................................................................... 34

E. Oneida Nation and Town of Oneida Plans, Agreements, and Expectations ................................................................................. 35

V. HOUSING AND ENROLLMENT GROWTH PROJECTIONS ................................................................................................................. 36

A. Housing Unit Projections ............................................................................................................................................................... 36


February 2018

Figure 12: Housing Unit Projections by 2017-18 Elementary School Attendance Area ....................................................................... 37

Map 3: Projected Housing Unit Growth by Neighborhood .................................................................................................................. 38

B. Student Enrollment Projections by Neighborhood ....................................................................................................................... 39

Figure 13: Projected WDPSD K-12 Student Enrollment ........................................................................................................................ 40

Map 4: Projected Student Enrollment Change by Neighborhood, 2018-2030 Grades K-12 (All Schools) ........................................... 42

Map 5: Projected Student Enrollment Change by Neighborhood, 2018-2030, Grades K-5 (Elementary Schools) ............................. 43

Map 6: Projected Student Enrollment Change by Neighborhood, 2018-2030, Grades 6-8 (Middle School) ...................................... 44

Map 7: Projected Student Enrollment Change by Neighborhood, 2018-2030, Grades 9-12 (High School) ........................................ 45

C. Student Enrollment Projections Versus Capacity .......................................................................................................................... 46

APPENDIX A: PROJECTION METHODOLOGY ......................................................................................................................................... 47

APPENDIX B: HOUSING UNIT PROJECTIONS BY NEIGHBORHOOD, 2018-2030 .................................................................................... 51

APPENDIX C: WDPSD K-12 RESIDENT ENROLLMENT TOTALS AND PROJECTIONS BY GRADE GROUP AND NEIGHBORHOOD, 2017 TO 2030 ...................................................................................................................................................................................................... 61


February 2018

I. INTRODUCTION AND SUMMARY

A. PURPOSE AND OVERVIEW

The West De Pere School District (WDPSD) is a growing district of 3,200+ students. At time of writing, the WDPSD was assessing its ongoing capacity issues and assessing its school facility needs. This Community Growth & Projections Report will assist the WDPSD to understand the impact of future residential development and demographic change on future student enrollment, where in the WDPSD that enrollment change may occur, and how enrollment projections compare with school capacities.

The process to complete this Community Growth & Projections Report included:

• Review of demographic and enrollment trends for different grade levels and geographic areas within the WDPSD.

• Review of recent, pending, and potential single family, multiple family, and mixed residential development proposals.

• Analysis of local land use plans, utility systems, intergovernmental agreements, and housing and economic trends.

• Engagement with municipal planning staff, residential developers, builders, and development experts.

• Projections of housing growth and change, and comparisons of consultant projections with data from other agencies.

• Projections of WDPSD student enrollment, comparing them with the capacity of each existing school calculated by Bray Architects in 2017.

This Report features housing unit and WDPSD student enrollment projections in three periods: through 2020 (‘20-‘21 school year), from 2021 to 2025 (‘25-’26 school year), and from 2026 to 2030 (’30-’31 school year). The projections are broken down by 48 different “neighborhoods,” as depicted on Map 1. Projections are then compared to the capacities of existing WDPSD schools.

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De Pere Unified School District

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Our Lady of LourdesCatholic School

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City ofGreen Bay

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Map 1: Current District, AttendanceArea, and Neighborhood Boundaries

Sources: School District of West De Pere, Brown County,MDRoffers Consulting

Date Created: 1/4/18 n West De Pere Schools

District Boundary

Neighborhood Boundary

Hemlock Creek ES

Westwood ES

Oneida TribalReservation Boundary

Municipal Boundary

RailroadsHighwaysLocal roads

Watero Airport

n Other Area Schools2017/18 ElementaryAttendance Areas

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February 2018

B. STATISTICAL SUMMARY

1. WDPSD K-12 resident student enrollment has increased by 746 students or 30 percent over the past decade. As of September 2017, the WDPSD educated 3,221 K-12 students. (This report does not focus on Early Childhood and 4K students because these students are generally not housed in WDPSD school facilities.)

2. While all grade groups experienced enrollment growth, enrollment increases were greatest at the middle school level (+44 percent over the past decade).

3. As of the 2017-18 school year, all of the WDPSD’s schools were still operating below their capacities, though high school, middle school, and Hemlock Creek enrollments were approaching capacity.

4. The number of resident students enrolling in other school districts has increased steadily from 129 to 319 students over the past decade. Students in grades 9 through 12 are the likeliest to open enroll out to other districts. This is due in part to the proximity of other districts’ schools, regional travel patterns, and appeal of different districts (especially Ashwaubenon).

C. HOUSING UNIT GROWTH PROJECTIONS SUMMARY

1. The consultant projects construction of 2,693 new housing units within the WDPSD between January 2018 and 2030. This averages to about 200+ new units per year, which is slightly less than what the WDPSD experienced between 2010 and 2017.

2. The consultant projects that about 84 percent of the total projected units between 2018 and 2030 will be in the existing Hemlock Creek Elementary School attendance area.

3. The consultant projects that 40 percent of all new housing units in the WDPSD between 2018 and 2030 will be in the Town of Lawrence—or 1,097 units. Nearly two thirds of these Lawrence units are projected to be single family homes.

4. Much of the City of De Pere’s residential growth is planned east of the Fox River (i.e., not in the WDPSD). Within the WDPSD, City residential growth is limited by available land, other municipal boundaries and agreements, and the industrial park. Still, the consultant projects 693 new housing units between January 2018 and 2030 in City neighborhoods in the WDPSD, including 345 single family homes.


February 2018

5. Residential development in the Village of Hobart has been largely outside WDPSD boundaries, but there are areas planned for residential development within the WDPSD. The consultant projects 616 new housing units in neighborhoods of the Village of Hobart that are also in the WDPSD, including 379 single family homes.

6. The Oneida Nation has ever-increasing land ownership in its Reservation boundary, which coincides with much of the Village of Hobart. The Nation is not inclined to develop most of that land.

7. Although only a small percentage of the Village of Ashwaubenon is in the WDPSD, the consultant projects 275 new housing units in neighborhoods of the Village of Hobart that are also in the WDPSD—nearly all of these units will be single family homes.

D. STUDENT ENROLLMENT PROJECTIONS SUMMARY

1. Between the 2017-18 and 2030-31 school years, the consultant projects an increase of 1,145 K-12 students enrolled in WDPSD schools, at which point total enrollment is projected at 4,366 K-12 students.

2. The consultant’s projections do not consider open enrollment of non-WDPSD resident students into WDPSD schools or 4K enrollment, and assume open-enrollment-out of District students at a similar rate as is currently occurring today. If in fact a greater percentage of resident students elect to attend WDPSD schools in the future, instead of open-enrolling-out, future WDPSD enrollment would be higher.

3. The consultant projects that 530 of the 1,145 additional K-12 students will emerge from neighborhoods in the Town of Lawrence. This correlates to housing unit growth, the large percentage of single family units planned, the young age of many existing neighborhoods, and higher-than-average student per housing unit ratios within Lawrence neighborhoods.

4. The consultant projects that elementary school (grades K-5) enrollment will increase by 437 students between 2018 and 2030, to 1,935 total K-5 students by 2030. Nearly all of these students will be living within the current Hemlock Creek Elementary School attendance area. Enrollment at Westwood Elementary is projected to remain generally steady through 2030. This suggests that attendance area boundaries may need to change and/or new elementary school capacity added.


February 2018

5. Regardless of elementary school attendance area changes, enrollment at the K-5 grade level is projected to approach the combined capacity of both Westwood Elementary and Hemlock Creek Elementary by 2020 and exceed their combined capacity by about 275 students in 2030.

Enrollment vs. Capacity: Both Elementary Schools (Grades K-5)

Cap. 1,660

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February 2018

6. The consultant projects that West De Pere Middle School (grades 6-8) enrollment will increase by 233 students between 2018 and 2030. The existing Middle School building is projected to be just over its capacity by 2020, and about 180 students over capacity by 2030, unless there are increases in capacity or changes in grade groups served.

Enrollment vs. Capacity: West De Pere Middle School (Grades 6-8)

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February 2018

7. The consultant projects that High School (grades 9-12) enrollment will increase by 466 students between 2018 and 2030. Without changes, the existing High School building is projected to be 100+ students over capacity by 2020 and 400+ students over capacity by 2030.

Enrollment vs. Capacity: West De Pere High School (Grades 9-12)

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February 2018

8. The consultant compared its enrollment projections with those provided by the UW-Madison Applied Population Laboratory (APL) in March 2016. The methodologies used in this Report and those used by APL differ and have distinct strengths. Still, there are remarkable parallels between enrollment projections for the 2020-21 and 2025-26 school years. The table below reports the average results from APL’s different projection models. APL’s projections do not extend to 2030.

Enrollment Projections Comparison—MDRoffers vs. APL

Grade Group

MDRoffers Resident Enrollment Projections

APL Resident Enrollment Projections

2020 2025 2020 2025 K-5 1,604 1,798 1,594 1,747 6-8 842 938 864 930

9-12 1,112 1,325 1,200 1,339 K-12 TOTAL 3,567 4,060 3,658 4,016

E. USING THIS REPORT FOR LONG RANGE FACILITIES PLANNING

The consultant’s methodology divides the WDPSD into 48 different “neighborhoods,” for which housing and K-12 enrollment projections were made. This approach enables both a quantitative and geographic understanding of future student enrollment growth. Neighborhood projections can be used in a variety of different ways in school facility planning, including as puzzle pieces for possible attendance area shifts, and to identify promising locations for new or expanded schools.

Projections of enrollment compared to school building capacities are only one factor to consider in long-range facilities planning. Other factors include basic goals and parameters (e.g., maximum school and class sizes); interest and tolerances for novel ideas like further grade grouping changes; the suitability for older buildings to operate efficiently and serve modern educational needs, or to accommodate expansion; the suitability of different potential sites for new schools; and relative costs. These issues are beyond the scope of this Community Growth & Projections Report.


February 2018

II. WEST DE PERE SCHOOL DISTRICT OVERVIEW

A. GENERAL LOCATION AND ORGANIZATION

As presented in Map 1, the West De Pere School District (WDPSD) covers an approximately 42 square mile area in west central Brown County and a small portion of eastern Outagamie County. The WDPSD is primarily overlaps with the Town of Lawrence, the southern portion of the Village of Hobart, and the western portion of the City of De Pere. Small portions of the WDPSD extend into the Village of Ashwaubenon and the Town of Oneida. The WDPSD also overlaps with portions of the Oneida Tribal Reservation.

The WDPSD’s existing school buildings are also indicated on Map 1. Westwood and Hemlock Creek Elementary Schools (grades K-5) feed West De Pere Middle School (6-8) and West De Pere High School (9-12). The WDPSD also operates the Phantom Knight School of Opportunity—a charter school for grade 7-12 students. With the exception of Hemlock Creek Elementary School, which is located in the Town of Lawrence, all WDPSD schools are located in the western portion of the City of De Pere. The WDPSD does not own any vacant land.

The WDPSD offers a four-year-old kindergarten (4K) program, primarily housed and run via partnerships with private and non-profit providers. Westwood Elementary School offers the only 4K site operated within a WDPSD building, the other three 4K sites are housed at other community sites. In September 2017, there were 219 4K students. The WDPSD also participates in Syble Hopp, which is a special education school operated by seven local school districts. The Syble Hopp School is located within the WDPSD on Scheuring Road.


February 2018

B. EXISTING WEST DE PERE SCHOOL DISTRICT K-12 SCHOOL BUILDINGS

Westwood Elementary School is a grade K-5 school located in the northwest part of the City of De Pere. The school is sited on a 21.4 acre parcel at 1155 Westwood Drive in neighborhood 43 on Map 1.

Westwood Elementary School was first built in the 1971, with large additions in 1995 and 2001. September 2017 K-5 enrollment at Westwood Elementary School was 690 students, which is below its capacity of 808 students.

Hemlock Creek Elementary School is a grade K-5 school located in the northern part of the Town of Lawrence at 1900 Williams Grant Drive in neighborhood 22. The school is located on a 44.35 acre site. The site contains several small wetlands and Hemlock Creek itself, which meanders through the southeastern portion.

Originally constructed in 2007, the 106,000 square foot school was expanded in 2015 with a 24,346 square foot classroom and gymnasium addition. In September 2017, K-5 enrollment at Hemlock Creek Elementary was 808 students, just below its capacity of 852 students.


February 2018

West De Pere Middle School is a grade 6-8 school in the northwest portion of the City of De Pere. The Middle School occupies a 39.3 acre site at 1177 South 9th Street, in neighborhood 41 on Map 1.

The Middle School was built in 1993, with an addition and interior renovations completed in 2017. Projects included a new office and security visitor entrance, kitchen reconfiguration and associated upgrades, two offices, two reception work stations, a health/nurse room, STEAM space, and new band/music area.

The Middle School’s September 2017 enrollment was 768 students, which is under its building capacity of 822 students.

West De Pere High School is located in the central part of the City of De Pere, on a 31.7 acre site at 665 Grant Street, in neighborhood 40 on Map 1. The site also encompasses the High School football stadium and athletic fields.

West De Pere High School was initially constructed in 1960, with substantial renovations occurring in 1968, 1969, 1988, 2002, and 2015. The 2015 remodel and expansion included new commons, gymnasium, administration facilities, classrooms, and upgrades to the interior layout and finishes and HVAC, plumbing and electrical systems.

In September 2017, grade 9-12 enrollment was 936 students, slightly below the building’s capacity of 994 students.


February 2018

III. ENROLLMENT, HOUSING, AND DEMOGRAPHIC TRENDS

A. STUDENT ENROLLMENT TRENDS AND IMPLICATIONS

As reported in Figure 1 below, the WDPSD experienced a 746 student or 30 percent K-12 enrollment increase over the past decade. WDPSD enrollment increased every year from 2008-07 to 2017-18, with the most significant increases occurring the 2014-15 and 2017-18 school years.

Enrollment increases have been greatest at the middle school level, with grades 6-8 enrollment increasing by 44 percent during this time period. Elementary school enrollment increased 30 percent, mirroring the District’s rate as a whole. Enrollment at the high school level grew at the slowest rate, increasing by 20 percent between 2008-07 and 2017-18.

Figure 1: K-12 Enrollment by WDPSD Grade Grouping, Sept. 2008 to Sept. 2017

2008-2009

2009-2010

2010-2011

2011-2012

2012-2013

2013-2014

2014-2015

2015-2016

2016-2017

2017-2018

10 Year Increase

K-5 1,149 1,214 1,245 1,299 1,320 1,381 1,429 1,483 1,504 1,498 349 6-8 530 533 551 554 580 616 681 712 721 768 238 9-12 796 818 835 826 816 820 844 885 895 955 159 K-12 2,475 2,565 2,631 2,679 2,716 2,817 2,954 3,080 3,120 3,221 746 Source: West De Pere School District. Includes all “students in seats” on the third Friday of September in each listed school year.

B. OPEN ENROLLMENT OVERVIEW

The State allows students, given space availability and district approval, the option of enrolling in a school district other than the one where they reside. The WDPSD has consistently lost more students to other districts than it gains through open enrollment. The number of resident students enrolling in other school districts has increased from 129 students in 2008 to 319 students in 2016. 41 percent of West De Pere’s resident students electing to open enroll out attend schools in the Ashwaubenon School District. Many of those students live in neighborhoods either within the Village of Ashwaubenon or adjacent to the boundaries


February 2018

of the Ashwaubenon School District. This suggests geographic proximity and community identity as a primary reason for open enrolling out. For purposes of this Report, the consultant assumed that open enrollment out would continue at its current rate at all grade levels, and that students in neighborhoods within the WDPSD near the Ashwaubenon School District would continue to open enroll out of the WDPSD at disproportionately higher numbers than in other neighborhoods.

C. PRIVATE AND TRIBAL SCHOOL OPTIONS FOR WDPSD RESIDENTS

There are several private schools in the greater Green Bay area, plus the Oneida Nation School System, which educate some students residing in the WDPSD.

The vast majority of students living in the WDPSD and attending private schools are enrolled at the Notre Dame de la Baie Academy (grades 9-12), which had 770 students enrolled in 2016. Enrollment at the Academy has remained relatively constant, growing by 5 percent between 2007 and 2016.

Our Lady of Lourdes Catholic School (K-8) is the only private school located within the WDPSD. Our Lady of Lourdes Catholic School is part of the Green Bay Catholic Education System and participates in the Wisconsin Parental Choice school voucher system. Enrollment at the school has decreased by 36 percent between 2007 and 2016, from 253 total students in 2007 to 162 students in 2016.

The Oneida Nation School System operates a combined elementary/middle school and high school northwest of the WDPSD. The Oneida Nation School System is open to all enrolled members of the Oneida Nation and other Native American tribes. In 2016, a total of 453 students attended Oneida Nation schools. These included 240 students at the Oneida Nation Elementary School (K-5), 91 at the Oneida Nation Middle School (6-8), and 122 sat the Oneida Nation High School (9-12). Enrollment in the Oneida School System has been growing slowly, increasing by 9 percent between 2007 and 2016.

D. SCHOOL CAPACITY ANALYSIS

The National Center for Education Statistics defines enrollment capacity as, “the maximum number of students that a school building can satisfactorily accommodate at one time for the particular educational program and curriculum offered.” In 2017, Bray Architects determined building capacities for each of the WDPSD’s existing school buildings. Each school was evaluated using three different methodologies to determine its enrollment capacity. The methodologies were titled building square


February 2018

footage per student, gross building size, and class size and utilization rate. The WDPSD and Bray Architects found that the most meaningful was the class size and utilization rate methodology, described as Methodology #3 within Bray’s September 2017 report. Based on Bray’s recommendation, MDRoffers used the results of Methodology #3 in this Community Growth & Projections Report.

E. RECENT RESIDENTIAL BUILDING CONSTRUCTION

Trends in residential construction are one indicator of future housing development. Figure 2 lists housing starts (based on building permits issued) within the primary WDPSD municipalities. The housing starts reflect all residential building permits issued within the municipality, including areas outside of the WDPSD. Housing starts for the other municipalities in the WDPSD are not included because only a small portion of the other municipalities are within the WDPSD.

Figure 2: Housing Starts by WDPSD Municipality, 2010-2017

MUNICIPALITY

HOW MUCH IN WDPSD?

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 TOTAL

BY MUNI

AVERAGE

Town of Lawrence Most 33 86 83 57 51 74 87 60 531 66 City of De Pere Part 79 43 68 124 192 57 32 21 616 77 Village of Hobart Part 101 108 230 186 156 174 116 210 1,281 160

Total by Year 213 237 381 367 399 305 235 291 2,428 303 Source: Town of Lawrence, City of De Pere, Village of Hobart. 2017 totals are through October 2017.

In general, residential construction in the WDPSD has been steady in the past several years. About ½ of all new housing starts in these three municipalities have been in Lawrence. The number of housing starts in a municipality is significantly affected when a new multiple family development is permitted. For example, 144 of the 192 housing starts within the City of De Pere in 2014 were associated with one project: the Nicolet Highlands Senior Apartments.


February 2018

As depicted in Figure 3, between 2010 and 2017, 67 percent of new dwelling units in the City of De Pere were located within the WDPSD, while 53 percent of new dwelling units in the Village of Hobart were located within the WDPSD. 2017 figures are through October.

Figure 3: Percent of New Dwelling Units in the WDPSD

Figures 4, 5, and 6 indicate new start trends by housing type in the Town of Lawrence, City of De Pere, and Village of Hobart.

77 percent of the new housing starts in Lawrence have been for single family homes, which typically generate more students per unit than duplex or multiple family units. In contrast, less than half of the new housing starts in De Pere and Hobart have been for single family homes. This was the result of both several larger (50+ unit) rental multifamily developments, plus a relative shortage of vacant, improved single family lots in those two municipalities.

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February 2018

Figure 4: Town of Lawrence Housing Units Enabled by Building Permits, 2010-2017

Unit Type 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017* Total Single family 33 22 47 49 47 74 77 60 409 Duplex 0 0 4 8 4 0 10 0 26 Multi family 0 64 32 0 0 0 0 0 96 Total 33 86 83 57 51 74 87 60 531 Source: Town of Lawrence. 2017 permits as of October 2017.

Figure 5: City of De Pere Housing Units Enabled by Building Permits, 2010-2017

Unit Type 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017* Total Single family 35 25 52 62 35 29 26 17 281 Duplex 4 2 0 2 2 4 6 4 24 Multi family 40 16 16 60 155 24 0 0 311 Total 79 43 68 124 192 57 32 21 616 Source: City of De Pere. 2017 permits as of October 2017.

Figure 6: Village of Hobart Housing Units Enabled by Building Permits, 2010-2017

Unit Type 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017* Total Single family 45 60 102 80 64 41 66 64 522 Duplex 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 0 2 Multi family 56 48 128 106 92 133 48 146 757 Total 101 108 230 186 156 174 116 210 1,281 Source: Village of Hobart. 2017 permits as of October 2017.


February 2018

F. TRENDS IN BIRTHS AND PRESCHOOL AGED CHILDREN

The number of children born within a school district affects future enrollment in that district’s schools.

Births within the WDPSD between 2005 and 2014 are shown in Figure 7. Births in the WDPSD as a whole increased during this 10-year period. In its 2016 report, the UW-Madison Applied Population Laboratory projected that births within the WDPSD would continue to increase through 2020.

The number of children aged 0-4 years in a district is another important influence over future enrollment. Per the 2010 Census, there were 1,398 children aged 0-4 living within the WDPSD. The Census Bureau’s American Community Survey (ACS), which has a greater margin of error than the decennial census, indicated that the 0-4 population decreased to 1,270 in 2015. During this same 5-year period, the ACS data indicated the total WDPSD population increased by about 2,888.

These statistics suggest a trend of fewer children per household in the WDPSD, mirroring the national trend. Still, as suggested by student-per-housing unit ratios in neighborhoods with large amounts of new single family residential development, new housing in the WDPSD generates a significant number of new school children.


February 2018

Figure 7: Births within the WDPSD, 2005-2014

G. BROAD HOUSING, DEMOGRAPHIC, AND ECONOMIC TRENDS

Residential development in Brown County in the early 2000s was characterized by robust building for both multiple family and single family units, followed by a sharp downturn from 2008 through 2011. Starting in early 2011, new single family residential subdivision activity started occurring again in the WDPSD and elsewhere in the region. Since 2011, the Brown County housing market has been relatively strong, although existing home sales have not reached the levels of the early 2000s.

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February 2018

The County was in a “sellers’ market” at time of writing. As reported by U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD), sales of existing homes in Brown County continue to increase. This indicates increasing numbers of existing housing units that are “turning over” to new owners—and potentially new families with children. Map 2 indicates those neighborhoods in the WDPSD that are experiencing the greatest turnover, based on existing home sales data from January 2012 to December 2017. Significant numbers of existing homes are selling along the Grant Street and Lost Dauphin Road corridors, and some rural neighborhoods like the Freedom/Noah Road area in the Town of Lawrence.

Area real estate professionals interviewed for this Report suggest that the recent robust housing market has relied to a significant degree pent up demand, rather than major new economic drivers. Many area builders and developers are still cautiously approaching bringing new single family lots on the market. Recent trends in new job growth are mixed, non-farm payroll growth has slowed since 2016, and in-migration to Brown County remains at about half of what it was prior to the economic downturn. Still, some interviewed for this Report suggested employment growth is coming from existing businesses, including from the De Pere Industrial Park in the WDPSD.

Emerging demographic shifts are critical to understanding household changes in existing housing units, housing development expectations, and who will be living in new housing. Most demographic trends suggest a continued decrease in household sizes, fewer school children per new housing unit, and greater percentages of multiple family housing than in the past. Therefore, over the next 10 to 15 years, both existing and new housing units will likely generate fewer students than they did in past decades.

Indeed, area developers have indicated that there is demand for additional senior housing within WDPSD. In general, new multiple family rental units in the WDPSD are particularly popular with the growing number of empty nesters looking to downsize, and with young professionals. Some interviewed for this Report expressed concern about an over-supply of multiple family housing in the near future.

Generational shifts will also tend to decrease the number of students from each new housing unit. The Baby Boom generation, born between 1946 and 1964, left their childbearing ages around 2010. The much smaller Generation X was born between 1965 and roughly 1984, making the youngest Gen Xer over 34 years old in 2018. Generation X will leave their childbearing years over the projection period. The Millennial generation, born from around 1985 to 2004, will be at prime childbearing ages during the projection period. While larger than Generation X, Millennials are projected to get married at lower rates, have fewer children, and have children later in childbearing years than previous generations.

The above factors have been factored into the consultant’s housing unit growth projections for the WDPSD later in this Report.

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February 2018

IV. COMMUNITY AND DEVELOPER PLAN ANALYSIS

Local land use planning, growth management, economic development, and infrastructure investments (and limitations) are central to projecting future residential and enrollment growth, and in planning for future school needs. As part of the projection process, the consultant analyzed local community and residential developer plans in the WDPSD. These plans provide insight to the growth and development goals and expectations of the municipalities, landowners, and residential developers. To best understand how the plans were being executed, particularly in places with significant residential growth, the consultant also interviewed and obtained data from local planning professionals and residential developers and builders.

Broadly speaking, municipal plans and leaders in the WDPSD are supportive of new economic and housing development. Plans support housing of all types, with single family housing particularly emphasized by the Town of Lawrence. Still, plans and the recent market have also supported multiple family housing. Limitations for new growth have included natural and manmade barriers (i.e., river, airport), boundary agreements and disagreements, and utility availability (most new residential demand has been for lots on public sewer and water.

The following pages describe the plans, agreement, and development expectations of the primary municipal governments in the area, plus the Oneida Nation.


February 2018

A. CITY OF DE PERE PLANS, AGREEMENTS, AND EXPECTATIONS

The City of De Pere last amended its comprehensive plan in 2010. Through its plan, the City encourages commercial and industrial development, while also promoting residential uses. City expansion is limited by boundaries and agreements with neighboring incorporated areas, like Ashwaubenon and Lawrence, and by natural and man-made barriers like the Fox River and Highway 41. In 2004, the City entered into an intergovernmental boundary agreement with the Town of Lawrence. The agreement sets forth where future City annexations can occur within the Town of Lawrence through 2029. Through that year at least, the City has limited expansion opportunities southwest of the current City limits.

The future land use map from the City’s plan, reproduced as Figure 8, suggests larger-scale opportunities for future neighborhood/residential development east of the Fox River, and therefore outside of the WDPSD. Within the WDPSD, the City plans future residential growth near Southwest Park and between the De Pere Dog Park and the Fox River. In mid-2017, the City prepared a more detailed area development plan for a site southeast of the intersection of Lost Dauphin Road and Cross Gate Lane. The City anticipates that the northern portion of the site will begin development in 2018. There are a couple of smaller pending residential developments in other parts of the City in the WDPSD, plus a few other vacant parcels planned for housing.

Since 1996, the Brown County Metropolitan Planning Organization has been researching the possibility of a southern bridge across the Fox River. Figure 8 depicts two locations that are being examined for siting of the southern bridge. The likely alignment would then extend west along Southbridge Drive, potentially to a new interchange on Highway 41. Construction of any such bridge is not expected until 2029 at the earliest.


February 2018

Figure 8: City of De Pere Future Land Use Map


February 2018

B. VILLAGE OF HOBART PLANS, AGREEMENTS, AND EXPECTATIONS

The southern portion of the Village of Hobart is located within the WDPSD. Since 2012, the Village of Hobart has consistently been one of the fastest growing communities in the State. During this time, a large portion of the Village’s residential development has been located in the “Centennial Center” project, which is located north of the WDPSD.

The Village of Hobart last amended its comprehensive plan in 2016. Through its comprehensive plan, the Village continues its emphasis on residential development as it transitions from a rural to a suburban community. The future land use map from the Village’s plan, reproduced as Figure 9 below, suggests opportunities for future residential development in several parts of this large Village. These are the areas colored yellow in Figure 9.

Still, future residential growth in the WDPSD portions of Hobart may be limited by a few factors. Utility services are not available in most parts of the Village that are in the WDPSD. Additionally, the Austin Straubel International Airport is located within the Village and within the WDPSD, which limits nearby housing potential. Finally, the Oneida Nation has been purchasing significant amounts of land in Hobart, which are also in the Oneida Tribal Reservation boundary. Some of this land is in areas that Hobart had planned for development, but that the Oneida Nation likely has limited interest in developing.

The majority of existing subdivisions within the WDPSD in the Village of Hobart are fully developed. In early 2017, the Village of Hobart approved the Arvada Apartments—a 147-unit multiple family development adjacent to the Tailwind subdivision, located southwest or the intersection of Packerland Drive and Highway EE.

The Village of Hobart has a boundary agreement with the Town of Lawrence to help the orderly development of land and the cost effective provision of municipal services.


February 2018

Figure 9: Village of Hobart Future Land Use Map


February 2018

C. TOWN OF LAWRENCE PLANS, AGREEMENTS, AND EXPECTATIONS

The majority of the Town of Lawrence is within the WDPSD, including all of its existing and planned development areas. The Town of Lawrence’s population has grown swiftly, increasing by 176 percent between 2000 and 2010.

The Town updated its comprehensive plan in 2016. The comprehensive plan’s future land use map, reproduced as Figure 10, depicts substantial future residential development particularly over remaining vacant lands near Hemlock Creek Elementary School and on the other side of Highway 41 southwest of De Pere. Most of these lands, shown in yellow on Figure 10, are currently in the Village’s sewer service area, but some are not. Additional areas could be planned for housing in the future. These could include lands between the School and Little Rapids Road, with such expansion more likely if the sewer service area could be expanded there. The Town’s goal is that at least 70 percent of new housing units will be single family homes.

The area surrounding Hemlock Creek Elementary School has grown rapidly, with only a handful of home sites remaining in the 4th Phase of the Hemlock Creek Subdivision. A 5th addition to the Hemlock Creek subdivision has been proposed. At time of writing, single family lots were being sold in the newly developed Autumn Heights subdivision to its east. Other residential developments were in concept planning stages southwest and south of the School.

In late 2017, the Town of Lawrence was in the process of developing a new Tax Incremental District (TID) around French Road, Little Rapids Road, and Lawrence Drive. Once associated utility extensions are made, it is anticipated that the TID would facilitate a mix of commercial, industrial, and residential development. Residential development is anticipated to be a mix of single family residences, condominiums, and rental apartments.

The Town of Lawrence has boundary agreements with the City of De Pere and the Village of Hobart, described earlier.


February 2018

Figure 10: Town of Lawrence Future Land Use Map


February 2018

D. VILLAGE OF ASHWAUBENON PLANS, AGREEMENTS, AND EXPECTATIONS

The southwest portion of the Village of Ashwaubenon is within the WDPSD. The majority of this area is currently developed.

The Village adopted an update to its comprehensive plan in 2016. Its “neighborhood-districts map,” reproduced as Figure 11, depicts neighborhoods in the WDPSD as being within the Southwest Business District or as part of the Sand Acres Neighborhood. Approximately half of the land within the Sand Acres Neighborhood and within the WDPSD is undeveloped. The Village envisions this area for new single family residential development. Its development is dependent on extension of utilities and floodplain mitigation.

The Village’s comprehensive plan also designates the Packerland South Opportunity Area, located at the northeast quadrant of the intersection of Packerland Drive and Grant Street. In September 2017, the Village approved a detailed master plan for this area. That master plan depicts approximately 20 lots for new commercial development and an estimated 140 lots for single family housing. The Village anticipates beginning infrastructure improvement during the 2018 construction season.

The Village has boundary agreements with neighboring municipalities to assist in the efficient provision of municipal services. In 2011, the Village of Ashwaubenon entered into a service agreement with the Oneida Nation to collaboratively serve tribally owned properties in the Village.


February 2018

Figure 11: Village of Ashwaubenon Comprehensive Plan District Map


February 2018

E. ONEIDA NATION AND TOWN OF ONEIDA PLANS, AGREEMENTS, AND EXPECTATIONS

Roughly the northwestern ½ of the WDPSD is also within the Oneida Tribal Reservation. The Reservation encompasses 65,400 acres. A good percentage of the land within the Reservation is not under Tribal ownership, but the Oneida Nation has been actively acquiring land. The Daniel Court, Manders Court, and Joshua Heights Tribal Housing Sites are within the WDPSD.

The Oneida Nation amended its comprehensive plan in 2014. The majority of the area within the WDPSD is within that plan’s Southeast Rural District. The Tribe plans for Southeast Rural District to remain in predominantly agricultural, rural, and natural use with limited single family development. In general, the consultant believes that the Oneida Nation will neither develop nor approve significant amounts of housing on its lands in the WDPSD through 2030.

The Oneida Nation has intergovernmental service agreements with neighboring municipalities, including Ashwaubenon and the Town of Oneida. The Town of Oneida agreement states that the Town of Oneida will not oppose the conversion of Tribal land to trust status and that tribally owned lands within the Town are under the jurisdiction of the Oneida Nation. The Town of Oneida appears to largely defer its land use planning to the Oneida Nation.


February 2018

V. HOUSING AND ENROLLMENT GROWTH PROJECTIONS

This section of the Report synthesizes information shared in earlier sections to provide housing unit and enrollment growth projections for the WDPSD through the year 2030, broken down into three intermediate time periods and into 48 different neighborhoods. The consultant’s general expectations for housing growth for the 2030-2040+ time period are also shared. The appendices to this Report describe the projection methodology and include detailed figures and rationale for each neighborhood’s projections.

A. HOUSING UNIT PROJECTIONS

The consultant expects that the WDPSD will continue to be a popular location for new housing development, particularly within the Town of Lawrence. This expectation is based on multiple factors, which include:

• Building permit and subdivision trends over the past few years

• Current and immediately pending residential development activity, expected to break ground between 2018 to 2020

• Proposed and “entitled” development plans and plats beyond the projects and phases now set to break ground

• Significant amount of vacant land with good access and proximities to the area’s amenities

• The general appeal of the WDPSD and its communities to families

The consultant projects construction of 2,963 new housing units within the WDPSD between 2018 and 2030. This is an average of 207 new units per year, which is a slight decrease from the pace since 2010. The consultant believes this projection is justified, as it accounts for both a potential over-build of multiple family units and the likelihood of a recession before 2030.

The consultant projects that about 65 percent of these new units will be single family homes.

Figure 12 divides projected housing unit (not enrollment) increases through the year 2030 by the WDPSD’s current elementary school attendance areas. New housing unit growth is projected to be focused in the Hemlock Creek Elementary School attendance area. This coincides with the projection that over 40 percent of all new housing units in the WDPSD between 2018 and 2030 will be built in the Town of Lawrence.


February 2018

Appendix B contains housing unit projections by neighborhood, and Map 3 summarizes this information. Appendix B features a rationale for the projections and the projected percentage of new housing units that will be single family homes in each neighborhood.

Figure 12: Housing Unit Projections by 2017-18 Elementary School Attendance Area

Elementary School Attendance Area

November 2017

Housing Units

Projected 2020

Housing Units

Projected 2025

Housing Units

Projected 2030

Housing Units

Projected Housing Unit

Increase, 2018-2030

Hemlock Creek 5,258 5,872 6,741 7,508 2,250 Westwood 4,367 4,404 4,570 4,810 443 Totals 9,625 10,276 11,311 12,318 2,693

Beyond 2030, significant housing growth is expected to continue in and adjacent to many of the same areas as 2017-2030 growth. These post-2030 housing areas are also highlighted with the “house” symbols on Map 3. Some areas around Hemlock Creek Elementary School will not be fully developed by 2030. Also, beyond 2030, the consultant expects significant residential growth along the Williams Grant Drive/Highway 41 corridor to the southwest.

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February 2018

B. STUDENT ENROLLMENT PROJECTIONS BY NEIGHBORHOOD

The consultant projected student enrollment within each of the 48 neighborhoods by multiplying projected housing units by projected student-per-housing unit ratios in the K-5 (elementary), 6-8 (middle), and 9-12 (high) grade groups. The methodology is described in detail in Appendix A. Complete K-12 enrollment projections by neighborhood and grade group are included as Appendix C.

Between the 2017-18 and the 2030-31 school years, the consultant projects an increase of 1,145 K-12 students enrolled in WDPSD schools. This projection assumes open-enrollment-out of District schools at a similar rate as is currently occurring, but does not consider open enrollment of non-WDPSD resident students into WDPSD District schools. Figure 13 lists projected enrollment changes over the period by school—assuming no changes in grade groupings or attendance areas.

District wide, new housing units built between January 2018 and 2030 are projected to produce about 0.40 K-12 students per housing unit. New single family homes average about 0.60 WDPSD K-12 students per unit, which gradually declines over time. New multiple family residences produce about 0.10 K-12 students per unit, though the limited stock of larger and low and moderate income units generate student ratios that are more akin to single family homes.

New student generation from housing unit growth will be counterbalanced somewhat by enrollment declines in some older parts of the WDPSD area, including areas that have significant numbers of school children today.


February 2018

Figure 13: Projected WDPSD K-12 Student Enrollment

School/Attendance Area Actual

Enrollment1 MDRoffers’ Projected Resident

Enrollment2 Projected Change,

2018-2030

Building Capacity3

Sept. 2017 2020-21 2025-26 2030-31 Hemlock Creek Elementary 808 966 1,108 1,221 413 852 Westwood Elementary 690 637 690 715 25 808

GRADE K-5 TOTALS 1,498 1,604 1,798 1,935 437 1,660 West De Pere Middle (6-8) 768 836 930 1,001 233 822 Phantom Knight School (7-12) 19 22 25 28 9 30 West De Pere High (9-12) 936 1,106 1,308 1,402 466 994

GRADES 6-12 TOTALS 1,723 1,964 2,262 2,431 708 1,846 K-12 GRAND TOTALS 3,221 3,567 4,060 4,366 1,145 3,506

Yellow cells = enrollment above building capacity. Green cells = enrollment below capacity.

Notes: 1 From the West De Pere School District’s September 3rd Friday Count. September 2017 enrollment both resident enrollees

plus non-residents enrolled in WDPSD schools (open enrollment in, tuition waiver). 2 Projections in this table do not include any 4K or Early Childhood students or open enrollment of non-WDPSD residents

into schools in the District. Projected enrollment also is based on an assumption of constant rates of open enrollment out, private and Oneida School System enrollment, and home schooling of WDPSD residents.

3 From the 2017 School Capacity Study by Bray Associates Architects, Inc. Reflects results from Bray’s recommended Methodology #3.


February 2018

Map 4 indicates the consultant’s projected total District student enrollment change (grades K-12) between 2018 and 2030 within each of the 48 neighborhoods. For Map 4, the consultant categorized and color-coded neighborhoods as being in one of four groups, described as follows:

• Decline. Projected 2018 to 2030 school enrollment decrease of 29 to 16 students. There is only one neighborhood in this group (#28). The Rosewood Estates and Rolling Hills Estates subdivisions within neighborhood 28 developed in the 1990s and early 2000s, so there will likely be a number of empty nesters there by 2030.

• Minor Change. Projected school enrollment decrease of 15 students to an increase of 19 students. The majority of the neighborhoods on Map 4 fall within this group. It includes most rural and older City of De Pere neighborhoods.

• Modest Increase. Increase of between 15 and 69 students. This group generally includes neighborhoods where there is a fair amount of existing housing, which may have steady to fewer students by 2030, plus vacant lands anticipated for new housing development. They are in the southwest part of De Pere and in the northern and southcentral portions of Lawrence.

• Significant Increase. Increase of between 70 and 286 students. This final group includes a handful of neighborhoods projected for significant single family housing development, generally in the southcentral part of the WDPSD. These are mainly in Lawrence, but also include neighborhoods in De Pere (#47—Southwest Area Development Plan area) and Hobart (#13—Tailwind Crossing area).

Maps 5, 6, and 7 indicate student enrollment growth by neighborhood for K-5, 6-8, and 9-12 grade groups, respectively. They largely reflect trends on the K-12 projections map. However, there are subtle differences that reflect variations in housing and development ages.

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Map 7: Projected Student EnrollmentChange by Neighborhood, 2018-2030For Grades 9-12 (High School)




District Boundary



Watero Airport


Projected Change in Number ofGrade 9-12 Students, 2018-2030

#


#

Decline (-17 to -6)





February 2018

C. STUDENT ENROLLMENT PROJECTIONS VERSUS CAPACITY

The consultant’s projections in Figure 13 suggest where current school capacities may be exceeded, assuming no changes in attendance areas, no expansions or new schools, and no shifts in grade groups. The capacities used in this section are from Bray Architects’ 2017 School Capacity Study.

The consultant projects that elementary school (grades K-5) enrollment will increase by 437 students between 2018 and 2030, not including any open enrollment into the District’s elementary schools. Combined elementary school enrollment is projected to be under the combined capacity of the elementary schools through 2020. The consultant projects that total elementary school enrollment will be about 140 students over combined capacity by 2025, and about 275 students over capacity 2030.

This projected increase is not spread equally between the two elementary schools. The consultant projects that enrollment at Westwood Elementary School will remain under that building’s capacity through 2030, assuming no change in elementary attendance areas. In contrast, the consultant projects that Hemlock Creek Elementary will exceed its capacity by 2020 and be about 370 students over capacity by 2030. This difference in projected experience is associated with the high amount of new housing–much of it single family—projected in the neighborhoods within the current Hemlock Creek attendance area. These projections suggest the possible short-term need to adjust elementary school attendance areas or assigning new students in border areas to Westwood.

Capacity issues are projected at both the middle and high schools by 2020. Between 2018 and 2030, the consultant projects that West De Pere Middle School (grades 6-8) enrollment will increase by 233 students. Without changes in school capacity or grade groupings, the consultant projects that the West De Pere Middle School building will be just over capacity by 2020, and about 180 students over capacity by 2030.

The consultant projects that West De Pere High School (grades 9-12) enrollment will increase by 466 students between 2018 and 2030. High School enrollment in September 2017 was just 56 students under its capacity of 994 students. Without changes, the consultant projects that the high school building would be around 400 students over capacity by 2030.


February 2018

APPENDIX A: PROJECTION METHODOLOGY

Appendix A describes the consultant’s housing and enrollment projection methodology, which led to the projections in the body of this Community Growth & Projections Report. The projection methodology is based upon a professional analysis of local and regional plans, the plans and subdivisions of private housing developers, and emerging housing growth and market conditions. The methodology also considers the dynamics within older, emerging, and future neighborhoods within the West De Pere School District (WDPSD). Different neighborhoods generate students at different rates and at different times in their evolution. The methodology relies on computations of expected ratios of students per housing unit in each neighborhood over time and how the ratios may change over time. The projection methodology is described in the “steps” that make up the remainder of this Appendix A.

STEP 1 – DIVIDE DISTRICT INTO NEIGHBORHOODS

The consultant divided the WDPSD into 48 different neighborhoods (see Map 1). These neighborhoods became the basis for data collection and analysis, and housing and enrollment projections. This approach enables understanding of not only how many students the WDPSD may be educating, but also where future students may live. This approach also has several future applications, including identifying which schools may become the most crowded and where new schools may be beneficial. Neighborhood delineations were based on several factors, including school attendance area boundaries, commonly understood neighborhoods or “subdivisions,” major roads and other physical barriers, municipal limits, and planned growth areas.

STEP 2 – ALLOCATE 2017 HOUSING UNITS AND ENROLLMENT BY NEIGHBORHOOD

The consultant estimated the number of housing units as of November 2017 for each of the 48 neighborhoods. The consultant began with 2010 U.S. Census housing unit counts by Census designated blocks. Next, the consultant updated these neighborhood-by-neighborhood housing unit totals to 2017 based building permit data and aerial photo and county parcel map interpretation. The WDPSD provided September 2017 resident student enrollment data. The consultant used geographic analysis software to place each WDPSD resident K-12 student within one of the 48 neighborhoods. Using the above data, the consultant estimated 2017 student-per-housing unit ratios for each neighborhood within each of the WDPSD’s current school grade groupings: K-5, 6-8, and 9-12.


February 2018

STEP 3 – ANALYZE COMMUNITY AND DEVELOPER PLANS FOR EACH NEIGHBORHOOD

The consultant reviewed and analyzed local government comprehensive, land use, neighborhood development, and utility system plans; intergovernmental agreements; and private developer plats and plans as they affected each of the 48 neighborhoods. Already-platted yet unbuilt lots in each neighborhood were identified, which signaled the potential for new housing in the near future. Preliminary and conceptual plans and possibilities were also assessed for longer-term projections. Interviews, data sharing, and past experience contributed to the consultant’s understanding of housing market dynamics and future development patterns in the WDPSD. See Section IV and Appendix B of this Report for details.

STEP 4 – COMPLETE PRELIMINARY HOUSING UNIT PROJECTIONS BY NEIGHBORHOOD

The consultant projected the number of additional housing units within each of the 48 different neighborhoods for three periods: 2018-2020, 2021-2025, and 2026-2030. These were added to November 2017 housing unit estimates to arrive at total projected 2020, 2025, and 2030 housing units by neighborhood. These preliminary projections tracked projected development of new major neighborhoods in the area, and accounted for both single family and multiple family residential developments. The Appendix B table includes a column with factors expected to influence new housing unit growth in each neighborhood.

STEP 5 – CHECK PRELIMINARY HOUSING UNIT GROWTH PROJECTIONS AGAINST CONTROL TOTALS

The consultant checked the preliminary projections of housing units against relevant outside data and projections, and shared them with municipal planners for their review.

In general, the consultant is projecting new housing growth between 2018 and 2020 at a slightly slower pace than occurred in the WDPSD from 2010 to 2017. This accounts for the possibility of a glut in multiple family housing and a recession between now and 2030.

The WDPSD does not contain the whole of any one municipality. In 2010, almost half of the housing units in the City of De Pere were in the WDPSD. For the Village of Hobart, about two fifths of the housing units in the Village were part of the WDPSD. This made it difficult to compare the consultant’s housing unit projections against household projections made by the Wisconsin Department of Administration, which are prepared by municipality, not school district. However, most of the Town of Lawrence falls


February 2018

within the WDPSD. In 2013, the DOA projected that the Town would have 2,841 households by 2030. The consultant projects 3,172 housing units by 2030, 12 percent more housing units than the DOA’s projected households. Given the recent housing growth within the Town, the consultant feels that the housing projections in this Report reasonably correlate with the growth anticipated by the DOA.

STEP 6 – PROJECT WEST DE PERE SCHOOL DISTRICT STUDENT-PER-HOUSING UNIT RATIOS BY NEIGHBORHOOD

The consultant then projected the number of WDPSD students-per-housing unit by neighborhood for 2020, 2025, and 2030 within each of the K-5, 6-8, and 9-12 grade groups. These projections were based on trends from projected demographic shifts in the region, community, and neighborhood; the projected mix of new single family and multiple family housing in each neighborhood; acquired data of student ratios from new housing within the WDPSD; recent trends for birth rates and age 0-4 population; recent housing and subdivisions in the WDPSD and the anticipated progression of student cohorts through the sequential grade groups.

It is critical not to attach too much importance to the impact of new housing development on future student enrollment. The existing housing stock is more impactful on future enrollment than is new housing. There were approximately 9,625 housing units in the WDPSD in November 2017. The consultant projects 2,963 new housing units between 2018 and 2030. This means that about 78 percent of the housing units projected to be on the ground in 2030 are already built.

In general, the consultant projected that already existing housing units would have fewer students-per-unit than when they were newer. The consultant projected generally stable student ratios in some older neighborhoods. Such neighborhoods had some combination of 1980s to 1990s home construction (i.e., best 1st generation turnover candidates through 2030); flat to increasing student-per-unit ratios since 2010; significant recent home sale activity; proximity to existing schools, parks, and other “family” amenities; and suitability of homes for family living (e.g., 3-4 bedrooms).

STEP 7 – COMPLETE WDPSD ENROLLMENT PROJECTIONS BY NEIGHBORHOOD AND GRADE GROUP

The consultant multiplied the projected number of housing units by neighborhood by the projected WDPSD student-to-housing unit ratio by for each grade grouping in the years 2020, 2025, and 2030. The result was preliminary WDPSD student enrollment projections by grade group for each of the 48 neighborhoods, for the 2020-21, 2025-26, 2030-31 school years.


February 2018

The 2017 student-per-housing unit ratios for each neighborhood exclude those students residing in the WDPSD, but not attending WDPSD schools. These include students who open enroll to other school districts, attend private schools or Oneida Nation schools, or are home-schooled. The consultant’s 2020-21, 2025-26, and 2030-31 enrollment projections by neighborhood assume a constant percentage of students who attend WDPSD schools versus these other options.


February 2018

APPENDIX B: HOUSING UNIT PROJECTIONS BY NEIGHBORHOOD, 2018-2030

Neighborhood (As depicted on Map 1) Existing Subdivisions, Projected Residential Change and Student Ratios

Total Housing Unit Estimates/Projections Projected Housing

Increase '18 -'30

Est. % single family '18-

'30 Nov. 2017 2020-21 2025-26 2030-31

1

Includes Daniel Court and Joshua Heights Oneida Rural Communities (developed in 2000s). Much of neighborhood within Duck Creek environmental corridor, and owned by Oneida Nation. Oneida Nation's plans suggest limited future residential development here. Consultant projects three new homes in each five year period through 2030, and slightly declining student per housing unit ratios as recent subdivisions age. 120 122 125 128 8 100%

2

Includes Hidden Hills (late 1990s), Janz Court (2000s), Manders Court Oneida Rural Community (2000s). Roughly 1/2 of the area is owned by the Oneida Nation, and is mainly in the Nation's "Southeast Rural District," within which habitat restoration and agriculture are desirable future land uses. Consultant projects two new homes in each five year period through 2030, and declining student per housing unit ratios as recent subdivisions age. 166 166 168 170 4 100%

3

Existing rural residential and agricultural uses, with small areas of light industrial use and 115 acres of Brown County Airport ownership in the eastern area along CTH Ge. Village of Hobart plans for agricultural use west of S. Overland Road and residential and industrial uses east of Overland Road. Majority of neighborhood 3 is owned by Oneida Nation, which suggests that its plans will likely control future land use. Oneida Nation places neighborhood within its "Southeast Rural District," within which habitat restoration and agriculture are desirable future land uses. Consultant projects minimal new residential development based on this factor plus proximity to Airport. Low student/housing unit ratios expected to continue. 51 51 52 52 1 100%

4

Neighborhood 4 encompasses the "Central Oneida East Core District" plus a section of the Duck Creek corridor to its north. Almost all of this neighborhood is in Oneida Nation ownership. There are currently ~8 unoccupied/ unfinished multiple family residential units and ~5 unoccupied/unfinished single family homes. Of the modest number of new homes anticipated from the Oneida Nation in the WDPSD, most are likely to be clustered in neighborhood 4. Still, consultant projects fewer than 20 new homes in neighborhood 4 in each five year period. Proximity to Oneida Nation and Pulaski schools should continue to result in low WDPSD student/housing unit ratios. 229 242 255 268 39 38%

5

Mixed industrial, rural residential, and agricultural use area. Includes Ferndale Acres (2000s), which has two vacant lots remaining. Oneida Nation owns western undeveloped lands in neighborhood 5, which it plans as part of its "Central Neighborhood" area for future housing. Village of Hobart plans lands east of CTH Ge for a future commercial/industrial use mix. Consultant projects limited new residential development through ~2025, but potential for new residential subdivision on Oneida Nation lands after 2025 per its plan. Proximity to Oneida Nation, Pulaski, and Green Bay schools should continue to result in low WDPSD student/housing unit ratios, particularly as Ferndale Acres ages. 147 147 149 164 17 100%


February 2018



Increase '18 -'30


'30 Nov. 2017 2020-21 2025-26 2030-31

6

Includes an Oneida Nation medical facility, Dream Lake development (2000s), and rural housing development along Florist Drive and South Pine Tree Road. Five vacant residential lots remain. Remainder is predominately in agricultural use, which is presently in private ownership. Village of Hobart plans this remainder for future residential use, but Oneida Nation identifies it with its "Southeast Rural District" where habitat restoration and agriculture are desired. At this time, consultant expects Nation's plans to control future land use, and minimal new residential development from neighborhood 6 through 2030. Still, this is an area to continue to monitor for change. 33 34 37 37 4 100%

7 Boundary of neighborhood 7 intentionally drawn around Airport ownership. No new housing anticipated. 14 14 14 14 - 0%

8

Includes Woodland Ravine (2000s) and Wildflower Acres (2000s), which together include six undeveloped lots. Neighborhood 8 includes vacant lands northwest of Conrad/Packerland Drive intersection in the sewer service area. Hobart has planned the southern 57 acres for residential use, but has it all zoned for industrial use. Consultant believes that future industrial use is most likely because of its current zoning, existing and planned industrial development west and north, a small business already in this area, and unified ownership by a developer group (Beelers Group 1 LLC) that also owns land to the north. Consultant projects continued low WDPSD student per housing unit ratios as recent subdivisions age and limited new housing is built, particularly given closer proximity to Ashwaubenon schools. 169 171 174 174 5 100%

9

Includes existing industrial development in Village of Hobart Southeast Industrial Park west of Packerland Drive, plus rural residential development along S. Pine Tree Road and Cyrus Drive. Neighborhood includes ~10 unbuilt residential lots. The Oneida Nation owns most the western half of the neighborhood, east of CTH Ge and south of Fernando Dr. The combination of community plans, land ownership, and Airport proximity suggests minimal new residential construction in neighborhood 9. 40 41 48 50 10 100%

10 Greater than half of the neighborhood is in Oneida Nation ownership. ~3 vacant lots available for homes. Both Oneida Nation and Village of Hobart plan for neighborhood 10 to remain mainly in agricultural and natural area use. Consultant projects five new homes in each five year period, influenced mainly by large area of neighborhood. 59 60 65 70 11 100%

11

Neighborhood is primarily in agricultural use, with large extraction operation on Orlando Drive. Oneida Nation owns much of the land south of Nathan Drive. Both Oneida Nation and Village of Hobart plan for neighborhood 11 to remain mainly in agricultural and natural area use. Though it appears Hobart would entertain rural residential subdivisions in this area, there has been no interest to date. Consultant projects no new housing by 2020, but one new rural residential subdivision between 2020 and 2030 with ~20 homes. 50 50 58 70 20 100%


February 2018



Increase '18 -'30


'30 Nov. 2017 2020-21 2025-26 2030-31

12

Includes Grande Oaks Estates (2000s). Oneida Nation owns nearly all of the land in the eastern half of neighborhood 12. Oneida Nation places neighborhood within its "Southeast Rural District," within which habitat restoration and agriculture are desirable future land uses. Village of Hobart plans neighborhood 12 for future residential use, but at present there are no residential development proposals or prospects. Utility extension to non-tribal lands may be challenged by distance. Consultant projects no new housing by 2020, but one new residential subdivision between 2020 and 2030 with 25-35 homes (i.e., similar in scale to Grande Oaks Estates), and slightly increasing student per housing unit ratios as a result. 48 48 58 78 30 100%

13

Includes Tailwind Crossing (2010-2016, 4 unoccupied lots/homes), Knots Landing (92 1 & 2-bedroom apartments), Skyline Estates (80 1 & 2-bedroom units), and Arvada Apartments. Arvada will include 147-bedroom units at buildout; 14 occupied at time of study. Consultant projects occupancy of all 147 units shortly after 2020. Will mainly be one and two bedroom units, but may include some three bedroom units. Existing apartments in neighborhood generate about 0.10 WDPSD students per unit. The remainder of neighborhood 13 is within the sewer service area, planned for residential development by Hobart, and in private ownership. There are no immediate development proposals. Still, between 2020 and 2030, consultant projects development of lands between Tailwind Crossing and S. Pine Tree Road (Appleton Valley Ltd Partnership), with a housing mix and density similar to Tailwind/Knots Landing/Skyline area. Another smaller residential development to its south expected after 2030. Projected 50/50 single to multiple family housing mix results in continued low student/housing unit ratios, though large number of housing units and proximity to schools will result in growing total student counts. 407 516 634 834 427 50%

14

Includes Monarch Drive (1997) and Traboh Court (1995). Oneida Nation owns about 1/2 of the undeveloped lands in neighborhood 14. Oneida Nation places neighborhood within its "Southeast Rural District," within which habitat restoration and agriculture are desirable future land uses. Village of Hobart plans neighborhood 14 for future residential use, but at present there are no residential development proposals or prospects. The northeast corner of the neighborhood by Traboh Court is within the sewer service area, but utility extension to neighborhood 14 may be challenging. Consultant projects construction of 5th Addition to Hemlock Creek, but as unsewered division of ~10 lots in Hobart section between 2020 and 2025. Consultant also projects ~10 new homes per five year period thereafter via 1 or 2 additional, smaller rural subdivisions similar to Traboh Court. Consultant projects that new single family housing in proximity to Hemlock Creek school will result in increasing student per housing unit ratios. 19 19 37 47 28 100%

15

Includes mix of farmland and rural residential use, with 2 remaining vacant lots and all lands in private ownership at time of writing. Also includes a small portion of Bain Brook Estates 4th Addition (2001), including opportunities to expand to north and west. No pending development proposals or anticipated utility availability. Consultant projects development of one new rural residential development/extension of Bain Brook, to commence after 2025, which may in combination with older housing result in stable student per housing unit ratios. Existing ratios are high for WDPSD. 32 33 36 56 24 100%


February 2018



Increase '18 -'30


'30 Nov. 2017 2020-21 2025-26 2030-31

16

Includes Bain Brook Estates (2000s) and Country Estates (2000s), which include 3 undeveloped lots between them. There are ~40 acres outside of these two subdivisions and within neighborhood 16, southwest of Country Estates. Town of Lawrence plans this area for rural residential development, but there is no pending development interest. Consultant projects development of one smaller rural residential development/extension of Country Estates, after 2025. Consultant projects higher student per housing unit ratios to decline as neighborhoods age, but be supported by 100% single family makeup, proximity to Hemlock Creek, recent home sales activity, and infusion of some new homes. 142 143 145 155 13 138%

17

Includes Serenity Subdivision (late 1990s), Pennway Park (late 1990s/early 2000s combination of manufactured and stick built homes), and Country View Circle CSM (1980s). Neighborhood includes ~11 vacant residential lots, plus a significant amount of agricultural land that could be subdivided into logical expansions of these existing subdivisions. Neighborhood 17 is outside of the sewer service area, and is planned by Lawrence for a combination of continued agricultural use and additional future rural residential development. However, most of the undeveloped land appears to be held by longer-term farming interests. Consultant does not project significant development before 2030. Recent home sales and increasing student per housing unit ratios provide some evidence of neighborhood turnover, which should continue over projection period. 114 116 121 126 12 100%

18

Includes Oak Stream Acres (2000s, 9 vacant lots/unoccupied homes), commercial development along French Road (USH 41 frontage), and significant undeveloped land to the southeast. Remaining undeveloped lands north of Lawrence Drive are either church-owned are largely in the floodplain. Lawrence currently plans for undeveloped lands south of Lawrence Drive for continued agricultural use, though some of this land, particularly northeast of Hickory Road, may be appropriate for industrial development in the longer term. As a result, consultant projects little future residential development in neighborhood 18. 30 33 38 40 10 100%

19

Includes Orions Run (2010s) and Carpenter's Crossing (2000s-2010s), with 5 remaining vacant lots/unoccupied dwellings between them. Most remaining vacant land is within the sewer service area and a new tax incremental district. Town of Lawrence has purchased land to southwest of existing subdivisions, mainly for industrial development, but transition between industrial and existing residential could include ~35 new single family homes plus ~14 duplex units. Consultant projects vacant lands southeast of subdivisions also likely to develop with industrial use along an extension of American Boulevard. Undeveloped land between Orions Run and Garrity's Glen in De Pere is planned for residential use by both Lawrence and De Pere, and is in the De Pere sewer service area. Under current intergovernmental boundary agreement, which extends until 2029, most of this land is scheduled to be annexed to the City of De Pere before it develops. Given boundary uncertainty, shorter-term development projects by same likely developer, and projection for development in neighborhood 25 to northeast to occur first, consultant does not project commencement of further residential development in northern part of neighborhood 19 until ~2030. Relatively stable student per housing unit ratios expected. 120 153 174 174 54 139%


February 2018



Increase '18 -'30


'30 Nov. 2017 2020-21 2025-26 2030-31

20

Includes Carpenter's Crossing North (2010s), with 9 remaining unbuilt condominium units plus two vacant/unoccupied standard single family homes. The Town anticipates significant development west of Ashwaubenon Creek, all within the sewer service area and a newly established tax incremental district. This area will likely include housing close to the creek and non-residential uses closer to USH 41 and Little Rapids Road. Consultant projects the first housing units by 2019 and the residential components of neighborhood 20 to be built out shortly after 2025, with ~120 single family homes and ~70 multiple family units closer to Highway 41 in transition to commercial area. One developer is already moving forward with plans in this area. Consultant projects student per housing unit ratios similar to existing mixed residential neighborhoods in Lawrence Drive corridor. 58 105 259 271 213 67%

21

Neighborhood 21 is predominately in agricultural use, outside of the sewer service area, in large parcels, and planned and zoned for continued agricultural use. That being said, portions of the neighborhood are held by real estate interests and are proximate to the Freedom/Lawrence interchange and existing development. If developed, portions of the neighborhood between Highway 41 and Williams Grant Drive should tilt towards non-residential uses, with the potential for multiple family housing to be included. Portions of the neighborhood northwest of Williams Grant would likely develop with predominately single family homes. Still, the consultant does not project residential development in neighborhood 21 until after 2030, given property owner interests, distance to utilities, possible multiple family glut, and other more promising residential development areas before then. 28 29 30 31 3 100%

22

Includes Clem Lane CSM (late 1970s), Hemlock Creek (2010s, 5 vacant lots/unoccupied homes), and Autumn Heights (2017). Improvements installed in fall 2017 in Autumn Heights; consultant projects nearly all 68 lots to have homes by 2020 given reported sales activity. The 5th Addition to Hemlock Creek has not received final plat approval, due to complications associated with the fact that it would be split between Lawrence and Hobart. Consultant projects Lawrence portion will yield ~25 single family residences by 2020. Neighborhood 20 also includes ~175 undeveloped acres southwest of Hemlock Creek school/subdivision that Lawrence plans for future residential use. 28 acres of this larger area is currently in the sewer service area (with apparent landowner interest in selling). The consultant projects single family development to commence in this area by 2019; there is immediate developer interest. Given a conservative density of 2 units/gross acre, this ~175 acres could yield 300+ new homes at buildout. Phases though 2025 are projected to yield ~110 single family homes--perhaps slightly larger homes than in Hemlock Creek. 2017 WDPSD K-12 student per housing unit ratio of 0.66 (including 0.46 K-5) near highest in WDPSD. Given recent vintage of subdivisions, more new subdivisions on the way, 100% single family character, and proximity of Hemlock Creek, consultant projects continued high ratios and enrollment growth. 160 235 358 433 273 100%


February 2018



Increase '18 -'30


'30 Nov. 2017 2020-21 2025-26 2030-31

23

Includes existing Scheuring Heights apartments (302-1 & 2-bedroom units), with commercial and light industrial uses to its east near the Scheuring/USH 41 interchange. Scheuring Heights had a 2017 WDPSD K-12 student per housing unit ratio of 0.10. Remainder of neighborhood 23 is undeveloped, and planned for either future residential or mixed commercial/residential uses by Lawrence. Much of this remaining land is owned by development interests and some is in the current sewer service area. Consultant projects this neighborhood for significant future residential development based on this Town plan, the fact that much of this area is owned by development interests, and its proximity to Hemlock School and the interchange. The uncertainty associated with a 2nd potential interchange--at Southbridge Road--and gaps in the sewer service area could defer some of this development. Still, the consultant projects, by 2022, 234 new 1 & 2-bedroom multiple family units, south of Scheuring Heights and built by the same entity, called Sand Lake. Consultant also projects a mix of single and multiple family uses on ~40 acres of 87 developer-owned acres southeast of the school to commence in the early to mid-2020s. Projected density is similar to other developments in area. Because consultant projects that ~80% of future housing units in neighborhood 23 will be multiple family, student per housing unit ratios projected to remain low (~0.15/unit). 338 478 642 702 364 22%

24

Includes Southwest Park, Creekside Heights, Southern Winds, and Clairmore Estates (all 2000s). Apartments in neighborhood 24 housed 0.19 WDPSD K-12 students per unit--high compared to other apartment developments in District. ~105 additional acres planned for future residential development, although utility availability (at least from the expected municipality) and Ashwaubenon Creek may create limitations. Consultant projects that remaining lands in Lawrence, near Highway 41, could yield ~20 single family homes and ~30 multiple family units by 2020, and ~46-acre Garrity lands to south ~60 single family homes in the mid to late 2020s. This new development, plus moderate recent home sales, should moderate expected student per housing unit ratio declines. 216 266 266 326 110 73%

25

Includes Garrity's Glen (2000s). City of De Pere plans a similarly sized area southeast of Garrity's Glen for residential use (where there is developer interest), with the remainder of neighborhood 25 likely to develop with industrial uses (extension of American Boulevard). The consultant projects the residential development in the 2018 to 2023 timeframe, before lands to the southeast in neighborhood 19 develop, with a character similar Garrity's Glen plus moderate-density multiple family uses. Relatively high student per housing unit ratios expected to be relatively stable, with effect of new housing balanced by aging Garrity's Glen. 85 145 198 198 113 58%

26

Includes Wentwood Acres (2000s, with 3 remaining single family lots/unoccupied homes); Ledgecrest, South Bridge Estates, and Burgoyne apartments; and industrial uses. Average WDPSD student per housing unit ratio of 0.14 in apartment developments. Also includes parcel along Southbridge Road (Best Built), expected to develop with 15 entry-level single family residences before 2020. Remaining undeveloped lands in neighborhood 26 are planned for non-residential uses. Consultant projects gently declining student per housing unit ratios as neighborhood 26 ages. 541 556 556 556 15 100%


February 2018



Increase '18 -'30


'30 Nov. 2017 2020-21 2025-26 2030-31

27

Includes Honeysuckle Acres (late 1990s-2000s, with 3 remaining vacant lots), Humana & Foth Complexes, and industrial development. ~20 acres north of Southbridge Road is planned for residential development. Based on developer interest, consultant projects ~40 single family homes by early 2020s. Remaining vacant lands in neighborhood 27 are planned for non-residential uses. Consultant projects stable student per housing unit ratios, with higher ratios from new homes balanced by declines in Honeysuckle Acres. 102 105 145 145 43 100%

28

Includes Rosewood Estates (1990s), Rolling Hills Estates (1990s, 2000s), and Lawrence Business Park. Remaining vacant land is either planned for non-residential development or in the Ashwaubenon Creek corridor. Given aging neighborhoods and no new housing, consultant projects declining student per housing unit ratios through 2030. Turnover could happen after then. 112 112 112 112 - 0%

29

Includes Shadow Ridge (2000s, 1 vacant lot remaining). ~124 acres owned by Northeast Asphalt, with ~84 acres in current extraction use and planned by Town for future park and recreation use. Remaining ~40 acres plus another ~43-acre vacant parcel at northeast corner of Packerland/Scheuring is planned for mixed uses, with the southern 43 acres in the sewer service area. Consultant projects either non-residential development, or residential development after 2030 once quarry operation ceases. Parcel L-268-1 could develop into 15 homes to connect Crimson Way/Ct.; projected in 2025-2030 timeframe. Given aging neighborhoods and limited new housing, buffered by proximity to Hemlock School, consultant projects gently declining student per housing unit ratios through 2030. 79 80 80 95 16 100%

30

Includes Shadow Ridge 1st Addition (2000, 2010s, 1 vacant lot remaining). Neighborhood 30 is otherwise built out. 0.80 WDPSD K-12 students per housing unit in 2017 are the highest of any neighborhood. Over last 5-7 years, student per housing unit ratios have increased and existing home sales have been significant. Consultant projects ratios to stabilize and decrease slightly as neighborhood ages with no new housing, but park and school proximity should support continued appeal of neighborhood for families. 169 169 170 170 1 100%

31

Includes Spring Lake Condominiums (with 1 vacant site), Shadow Ridge Condominiums, Stone Ridge Apartments, Shadow Ridge Apartments, Quarry Park Apartments (all 2000s), Sandy Springs Road Condominiums (2010s), Patriot Place 2nd Addition (2000s, 2010s), and Mooren Subdivision (2010s, with 4 vacant/undeveloped lots). The western ~70 acres of neighborhood 31, west of Patriot Place, is undeveloped, under single ownership, within the sewer service area, and planned for future mixed uses. The consultant projects a mixed single family/multiple family development on most of this land between 2025 and 2030, built to similar density as Patriot Place. ~130 single family homes and ~40 multiple family units at build out, shortly after 2030. Large number of apartments and condos in neighborhood pulls down existing student per housing unit ratios, but still average apartment ratio is ~0.20 WDPSD K-12 students per unit. Ratios projected to be stable through 2025, then increase slightly with projected infusion of new housing. 519 521 521 626 107 75%

32 Mainly undeveloped area planned and zoned for non-residential development within the Village's planned "Southwest Business District." No residential development anticipated. 2 2 2 2 - 0%


February 2018



Increase '18 -'30


'30 Nov. 2017 2020-21 2025-26 2030-31

33

Includes the Highland Ridge Golf Club and Country Rose Estates (2000s). Neighborhood includes 12 vacant lots/unoccupied homes. Village has master plan for lands west of golf course, which suggests capacity for ~140 single family residences. Utility extensions planned in 2018. Consultant projects first new homes by 2020 and buildout shortly after 2025. Remaining undeveloped lands in neighborhood 33 are planned for non-residential use. WDPSD is advised to monitor future of Highland Ridge Golf Course--older courses elsewhere are being converted to residential use. Consultant projects increasing student per housing unit ratios in neighborhood 33 in conjunction with new single family development, but significant open enrollment out to the Ashwaubenon district may moderate impact on the WDPSD. 65 97 197 217 152 100%

34

Includes Meadow Gardens (2000s), Spring Meadows, 1st & 2nd Additions (2000s), Hoks Ridge (2010s), KB Sunset Acres (late 2010s), The Estates at Green Ridge (2010s), Smits Subdivision (1960s), Sand Acres Park, and a portion of the Ashwaubenon Business Center along North Main Street. Neighborhood 34 includes 14 vacant lots/unoccupied homes. ~40-acre undeveloped parcel (Pagel) south of Main Avenue is planned and zoned for single family residential use and in sewer service area, with its eastern 1/4 in the Ashwaubenon Creek floodplain. Consultant projects its development between 2025 and 2030. Consultant projects flat to slightly declining WDPSD student per housing ratios, with possible increase after 2025. Open enrollment out to the Ashwaubenon district may affect WDPSD enrollment. 471 481 485 585 114 100%

35

Includes Master Fleet, Schneider International, the Ashwaubenon Sports Complex, Waterford Heights Apartments (136, studio, 1 bedroom & 2-bedroom units), Waterford Heights Condominiums (2-bedroom units), Riverstone Court Condos (2010s, 2-bedroom condos with 9 remaining dwelling units to be built), Highland Springs (82 - 1 & 2-bedroom units), Layden Drive Estates (80 - 1 & 2-bedroom units). Remaining undeveloped land is planned and zoned for non-residential use. Combination of significant multiple family component and close proximity to the Ashwaubenon district results in very low WDPSD student per housing unit ratios (e.g., ~0.06/unit) and stable enrollment. 323 332 332 332 9 0%

36

Includes several multifamily developments, Alhambra Village (1970s), and assisted living facilities. Newer residential units mainly in the form of townhome development. Neighborhood 36 is essentially built out with no obvious redevelopment opportunities. Consultant projects generally flat student per housing unit ratios, as has been the experience in the last 7 years. 392 393 399 403 11 0%

37

Includes Nicolet Mill Paper Mill and the City's Wastewater Treatment Plant, scattered residential development along the Fox River, and the Brown County Fairgrounds. Neighborhood essentially built out with no obvious redevelopment opportunities. Neighborhood experienced interesting spike in elementary students per housing unit between 2010 and 2017--consultant selected the midpoint for future ratio and generally stable student generation otherwise. 187 187 188 188 1 100%


February 2018



Increase '18 -'30


'30 Nov. 2017 2020-21 2025-26 2030-31

38

Older commercial and residential neighborhood west of railroad tracks. Includes recently developed Nicolet 55+ Apartments (114 units). No obvious other redevelopment opportunities, though consultant projects one larger multiple family project between 2025 and 2030 (could as easily be in neighborhood 36 to the north). Consultant projects generally flat student per housing unit ratios, as has been the experience in the last 7 years, but with decrease after 2025 to reflect projected multiple family project. 581 581 581 681 100 0%

39

Includes St. Norbert College and the Village's downtown area. Newer residential units include the College Avenue Apartments (1 & 2-bedroom apartments). While there are no short-term redevelopment sites, consultant projects that parking lot and/or older developed sites could provide room for 1-2 multiple family projects between 2020 and 2030. Extremely low student per housing unit ratios are expected to continue. 304 304 328 360 56 0%

40 Primarily single family residential (1960s), with isolated areas of multifamily and industrial development (foundry). Scattered remaining lots with limited potential for a few new homes over projection period. Student per housing unit ratios have been stable; given proximity of schools, consultant expects that to continue. 291 292 294 296 5 100%

41 Built out residential and commercial neighborhood, with no redevelopment anticipated. Also includes Our Lady of Lourdes Catholic School. Neighborhood had relatively high WDPSD student per housing unit ratio in 2017 (0.56/unit), likely due to school proximity. Assuming schools remain in vicinity, consult projects that to continue. 216 216 216 216 - 0%

42

Includes Scheuring Pointe (1990s), Sunnyside Acres (1990s), Franco Court Condominiums (2000s), Crown Suites Apartments (1990s), Maplewood Park Apartments (1 & 2 bedrooms, 1990s), Nicolet Townhomes (2010s, 60-2 & 3 bed units). Also includes commercial uses such as Wal-Mart and Menards. Neighborhood built out with no redevelopment anticipated. Student per housing unit ratios have increased since 2010, related to Nicolet Townhomes 1.07 WDPSD student per unit ratio. Consultant projects slightly declining, then flat ratios, once 1990s subdivisions begin to turn over towards 2030. 439 439 440 440 1 100%

43

Includes Parc de Francile (1990s), Maplewood Estates (1990s), Harvest Acres 3rd Addition (1980s, 1990s). Four remaining vacant lots; otherwise, neighborhood 43 is built out with no redevelopment anticipated. Given 1980s/1990s vintage of most subdivisions here, plus moderate recent home sales and Westwood Elementary in neighborhood, consultant anticipates increasing students per housing unit in this neighborhood. 342 343 345 346 4 100%

44

Includes Scheuring Woods Park Sites (1960s), Santa Cruze North (1960s), Trailwood Village (1980s), portion of Harvest Acres 3rd Addition (1950s). Undeveloped residential lots within the neighborhood are land locked and not likely to be developed. Redevelopment not anticipated. Given 1960s-1980s vintage of most subdivisions here, plus high recent home sales and WDPSD schools near neighborhood, consultant anticipates increasing students per housing unit in this neighborhood. 455 455 455 455 - 0%


February 2018



Increase '18 -'30


'30 Nov. 2017 2020-21 2025-26 2030-31

45

Includes Lost Dauphin Estates (1980s) and 1950s era units on the east side of Lost Dauphin Road. Also includes St. Norbert Athletic Fields. There are ~3 undeveloped lots in neighborhood; otherwise, it is built out with redevelopment not anticipated. Seven year student ratio trend, age of housing units, moderate recent home sales, and proximately of schools all suggest slightly increasing student per housing unit ratios over period. 216 216 217 218 2 100%

46

Includes Patriot Park and the Bi-Centennial Estates (1970s), River Ridge (2000s), Rivervista (1960s). There are a handful of vacant residential lots within the neighborhood. Additionally, ~26 acres at south end of neighborhood 46 are planned and zoned for "neighborhood residential" use. A stream corridor, power lines, railroad tracks, and unusual access may limit its development potential. Consultant projects its development with lower-density multiple family residential use (i.e., 4 units/gross acre) between 2025 and 2030. Seven year student ratio trend, age of housing units, moderate recent home sales, and proximately of schools all suggest slightly increasing student per housing unit ratios through 2025--projection of multiple family after 2025 may reduce ratios (but increase enrollment). 425 426 428 528 103 0%

47

Includes Waterview Heights and Glen Meadows (2000s, with 9 undeveloped lots/unoccupied homes). The southern ~90 acres of neighborhood 47 is within City's Southwest Area Development Plan area, within which ~195 single family homes are anticipated at build out. Development of the northern ~56 acres (~120 homes) is anticipated to commence in 2019 and be completed by 2025. Development of the southern ~34 acres not projected until after 2030. Based on upward student per housing unit trend, high existing home sales, and recent and new housing, consultant expects continued increase in students per housing unit. 312 341 441 441 129 100%

48

Includes Barrington Point (1990s), Hickory Grove Heights (2000s), Hickory Acres (2000s), Fox River Meadows (2000s-2010s). There are ~14 vacant, improved residential lots in neighborhood 48, plus 17 additional vacant lots in Fox River Meadows 2nd Addition. These 17 lots do not yet have road access and the asking price for the development is purportedly high. Lawrence plans and zones the remaining ~65 vacant acres in this entire neighborhood for future single family residential development, but there are no immediate prospects. Consultant anticipates build out of remaining 31 vacant lots by 2025, and stable student per housing unit numbers given balance of new vs. aging units. 207 211 238 238 31 100%

Totals 9,625 10,276 11,311 12,318 2,693 65%


February 2018

APPENDIX C: WDPSD K-12 RESIDENT ENROLLMENT TOTALS AND PROJECTIONS BY GRADE GROUP AND NEIGHBORHOOD, 2017 TO 2030 N

eigh

borh

ood Grades K-12 Grades K-5 Grades 6-8 2 Grades 9-12 2

2017 1 2020 2025 2030 2017 1 2020 2025 2030 2017 1 2020 2025 2030 2017 1 2020 2025 2030

1 38 39 38 38 17 17 16 17 7 9 9 8 14 13 13 13 2 71 71 63 61 30 28 27 27 20 15 15 14 21 27 21 20 3 8 9 11 11 4 5 5 5 1 2 2 3 3 2 3 3 4 49 54 61 64 21 27 28 29 11 11 14 15 17 17 19 20 5 48 47 41 45 20 19 18 20 13 10 10 11 15 18 13 15 6 13 13 14 14 5 6 6 6 3 3 3 3 5 5 4 4 7 5 5 6 5 3 2 2 2 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 2 8 50 46 41 38 18 19 17 16 11 9 10 9 21 18 14 14 9 19 19 19 19 8 7 8 9 6 4 4 4 5 7 6 7

10 18 20 25 27 11 10 11 12 3 6 6 6 4 4 8 9 11 31 25 21 26 7 8 10 12 8 4 4 6 16 13 7 8 12 29 27 20 32 6 7 10 16 13 3 5 7 10 16 6 9 13 80 132 197 275 46 67 95 125 15 31 44 67 19 34 57 83 14 6 5 15 23 1 3 9 11 0 0 3 5 5 2 3 7 15 27 24 21 31 10 8 8 14 7 5 5 7 10 10 8 11 16 124 112 96 95 48 44 38 39 25 26 23 22 51 41 36 34 17 38 45 48 50 17 20 21 21 12 9 11 11 9 16 17 18 18 9 11 13 15 4 5 6 7 2 2 3 3 3 3 4 5 19 52 83 117 113 33 46 52 47 6 23 28 28 13 14 37 38 20 26 48 118 123 11 21 52 54 6 12 28 30 9 16 38 39 21 3 5 6 7 2 3 3 3 1 1 2 2 0 1 2 2 22 104 210 354 390 73 106 150 165 20 63 90 95 11 41 115 130 23 36 69 103 123 26 38 51 63 6 19 19 25 4 11 32 35 24 80 104 108 129 40 48 48 59 15 25 24 28 25 31 36 42 25 50 105 158 147 34 54 67 63 9 30 38 34 7 21 53 50 26 125 142 139 125 66 67 61 53 30 33 33 28 29 42 44 44 27 44 43 61 59 19 18 28 28 10 10 13 12 15 15 20 20 28 70 58 46 43 23 21 19 18 15 12 11 10 32 25 16 15 29 64 59 42 50 21 19 18 22 21 11 10 11 22 29 15 17 30 135 143 144 133 72 68 61 56 27 37 34 31 36 38 48 46 31 88 97 100 125 45 44 44 56 19 24 22 28 24 29 34 41 32 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 33 14 24 62 77 8 14 31 37 2 6 14 17 4 5 18 23 34 181 197 189 222 88 87 78 99 51 46 44 53 42 65 68 70 35 22 22 20 20 13 12 10 10 5 5 5 5 4 5 5 5 36 76 80 80 81 35 33 34 34 24 18 18 18 17 29 28 28


February 2018

Nei

ghbo

rhoo

d Grades K-12 Grades K-5 Grades 6-8 2 Grades 9-12 2

2017 1 2020 2025 2030 2017 1 2020 2025 2030 2017 1 2020 2025 2030 2017 1 2020 2025 2030

37 43 43 45 40 24 21 19 17 6 12 10 9 13 10 16 14 38 106 113 113 119 54 52 52 54 24 26 26 27 28 35 35 37 39 9 8 8 8 2 3 3 4 3 2 2 2 4 3 3 3 40 106 104 106 110 45 47 49 49 29 22 24 25 32 35 34 36 41 119 107 106 107 45 48 48 48 27 23 24 25 47 37 35 35 42 150 157 154 143 76 70 66 62 31 39 35 33 43 48 53 48 43 123 127 127 147 47 51 59 69 34 27 28 35 42 48 40 43 44 162 157 152 175 59 64 71 77 41 32 36 41 62 61 46 57 45 69 70 69 76 25 28 30 33 20 15 16 19 24 27 22 25 46 188 207 225 246 91 94 103 111 48 50 51 58 49 64 71 77 47 175 198 265 265 83 89 115 115 42 48 62 62 50 61 88 88 48 76 84 93 93 38 38 43 43 20 19 20 20 18 27 30 30

Tot

als

3,159 3,567 4,060 4,366 1,474 1,604 1,798 1,935 750 842 938 1,010 935 1,122 1,325 1,421

Notes: 1 2017 totals in this figure are September 2017 WDPSD resident student enrollment. They do not include students who open enrolled in to WDPSD schools. 2 Grade 6-8 and 9-12 totals in this table differ slightly from projected West De Pere Middle School and West De Pere High School projections in the body of the Report to account for Phantom Knight School.

community growth & projections report€¦ · figure 1: k-12 enrollment by wdpsd grade...

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