community groundworks scenario plan
TRANSCRIPT
-
7/28/2019 Community GroundWorks Scenario Plan
1/12
-
7/28/2019 Community GroundWorks Scenario Plan
2/12
1
Community GroundWorksPlanning for a Feasible 2023
5/10/2013
University of Wisconsin, Madison Department of Urban and Regional Planning
Cheng, Sheng-Yuan | Fang, Hao | London, Alex | Su, Jingxiang
-
7/28/2019 Community GroundWorks Scenario Plan
3/12
2
CONTENTS
Introduction .................................................................................................................................................. 3
CGWs Background, Mission, and Vision ...................................................................................................... 3
Internal and External Trends......................................................................................................................... 3
Social Trends ............................................................................................................................................. 4
Political Trends ......................................................................................................................................... 4
Economic Trends ...................................................................................................................................... 4
Environmental Trends .............................................................................................................................. 5
Technological Trends ................................................................................................................................ 5
The Most Important Trends .......................................................................................................................... 5
Economic Dependency Concerns .................................................................................................................. 6
Scenarios ....................................................................................................................................................... 6
Scenario 1: More public funding and the community becomes more local ............................................ 7
Scenario 2: More public funding and social media transforms community............................................. 7
Scenario 3: Less public funding and community becomes more local ..................................................... 9
Scenario 4: Less public funding and social media transforms community ............................................. 10
Concluding Thoughts .................................................................................................................................. 11
-
7/28/2019 Community GroundWorks Scenario Plan
4/12
3
INTRODUCTION
This document is the result of a scenario planning process conducted in Spring of 2013 for Community
GroundWorks (CGW). The purpose of this exercise is to identify internal and external trends that most
affect the organization. Trends are organized into Social, Political, Economic, Environmental, and
Technological (SPEET) categories. Two categories will be analyzed for the formulation of scenarios. The
ultimate goal is to articulate aspects of the organization that are vulnerable to changing circumstances.
Using this information, CGW may be able to assuage the impacts of undesirable changes, as well as take
advantage of desirable changes. The scenarios are designed to be feasible and pertinent, projecting 10
years into the future.
CGWS BACKGROUND, MISSION, AND VISION
CGW is a young, innovative, and successful organization. As the organization grows, changes, and adapts,
its core mission and vision guide its way.
CGWs vision is described succinctly as, People cooperate to create and sustain healthy communities by
growing food and caring for nature within their urban environments. The mission statement is more
defining: Community GroundWorks connects individuals to urban agricultural and natural lands within
a diverse learning community. We grow wholesome and organic food for local tables, steward urban
natural areas, inspire healthful eating, and offer hands-on learning opportunities. By teaching what we
practice, we pass on the skills to build enduring communities.
Plainly put, CGW is devoted to providing (healthy) food security. Ancillary objectives are in conserving
natural areas and educating community members about their welfare. This scenario planning exercise
will explore how changing circumstances could affect the successful implementation of these specific
goals.
INTERNAL AND EXTERNAL TRENDS
We have identified several internal and external trends, categorized into SPEET, which are most
important to CGW.
-
7/28/2019 Community GroundWorks Scenario Plan
5/12
4
SOCIAL TRENDS
External - Social interest in community gardening and urban farming plays an important role in
promoting the development of CGW. Increasingly, community members and other civil sector
organizations are expressing interest in establishing the infrastructure for urban gardening and farming.
This cultural shift should continue to open a market for achieving CGWs core mission. CGWs
educational activities also play a role in this regard.
POLITICAL TRENDS
External In a democratic society, public policies should reflect public will. Realistically, however,
favorable social trends do not necessarily correlate with political decision making. Fortunately, the
political environment has thus far been supportive of the development of CGW. Farmland preservation
has gained considerable political support in Madison. There have been precedents for zoning easements
and adjustments that allow for urban gardening to proliferate. However, budgetary concerns at the
federal, state and local level may lessen pecuniary support from public bodies.
Internal The organizational structure of CGW is very important for the organizations success.
Sophisticated management techniques and bureaucratic decision-making through the board of directors
ensure that CGW is run effectively. In so far as CGW depends on scarce human capital for its success
may determine the organizations sustainability.
ECONOMIC TRENDS
External- The economic environment plays a large role in CGWs financial sustainability, as economic
circumstances influence the charity of private and civic sponsors as well as funding from the public
sector. As food prices rise, the importance of CGW helping to provide food security to disadvantaged
families likewise increases. What determines the charity of sponsors, however, besides the effectiveness
of internal fund raising, is the disposable cash of companies, organizations, families, and individuals.
-
7/28/2019 Community GroundWorks Scenario Plan
6/12
5
Rising taxes on the federal, state and local level decrease the cash available for charity. Decreasing
expenditures on public services and social programs from public budgets, obviously, decrease CGWs
funding from the public sector.
Internal The economic sustainability of CGW has a good track record. In so far as resources are used
efficiently and effectively, the organization should be able to grow and expand its activities.
ENVIRONMENTAL TRENDS
None have been identified as important.
TECHNOLOGICAL TRENDS
External Social media and information technology in general have been changing (and are likely to
continue changing) how people are educated and informed. The concept of community is changing as
well, with propinquity becoming a not-so-important factor in socialization and the creation of cultures.
Internal CGWs relationship to social media and information technology is crucial to the fulfillment of
its goals. Utilizing interactive, social and multi-media platforms can act to increase the exposure of CGW
and to effectively education and inform large numbers of individuals. Opportunities for increasing
revenues through fundraising, as well as increasing social and human capital, are enormous.
THE MOST IMPORTANT TRENDS
The trends in SPEET reveal a high correlation from category to category. For example, social trends
technological trends are strongly related. Likewise, economic trends are largely impacted by political
trends. We have identified political and technological tends as the most important because there are
aspects of both categories that may have a large impact on CGW. As the social aspect is largely tied to
the technology aspect, and the economic is largely tied to the political aspect, there will inevitably be a
-
7/28/2019 Community GroundWorks Scenario Plan
7/12
6
lot of cross-over between them. We will expand on these circumstances in more detail in the scenario
portion of this document.
ECONOMIC DEPENDENCY CONCERNS
On May 25, 2012 a professional audit of CGW was completed for year 2010 and 2011. It was revealed
that 31% of CGWs support and revenue came from the Goodman Community Center, which in turn is
funded by public, civil sector, and private sources through the City of Madison, United Way, CDGB, and
AmeriCorps. Another 20% of CGWs support and revenue comes from the United States Department of
Agriculture. The audit report explains that, A significant reduction in the level of support and revenue
from these funding sources may have an adverse effect on the CGWs programs and activities.
SCENARIOS
These scenarios describe what could feasibly be the situation in the year 2023
Figure 1. Scenario matrix
More publicfunding/communitybecomes more local
More publicfunding/social
media transformscommunity
Less publicfunding/communitybecomes more local
Less publicfunding/social
media transformscommunity
-
7/28/2019 Community GroundWorks Scenario Plan
8/12
7
SCENARIO 1: MORE PUBLIC FUNDING AND THE COMMUNITY BECOMES MORE LOCAL
The federal government has gained greater taxing power and ability to provide services. Increased focus
on generative social welfare has influenced programs in the USDA that support urban agriculture in
replacement of Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Programs and local food shelves. CGW is amongst a
number of non-profit organizations that have received block grants for its gardening, agricultural, and
educational activities. The USDA has teamed up with Wisconsins Department of Education to ensure
healthy lunches in public schools, which has allowed CGWs organic farm to retain steady buyers and a
secure cash flow from Madisons public schools. Also, the USDA has approved capital funding to setup
Small-Plot Individualistic gardening in the back-yards of low income households, on the grounds of food
security. Various social welfare programs are being promoted by federal agencies and approved by
congress. CGWs good reputation has allowed it to receive continued support from the public sector for
its programs and services.
Widespread feelings of social alienation due to ubiquitous technological use and limiting social media
have caused resurgence in local community engagement. CGW has become more central to the
everyday lives of the surrounding neighborhoods and the Madison area at large. The property on Troy
Drives use as a social and educational hub for the community has been strengthened and expanded.
Many more people come to the Troy Gardens property to garden in the plots, volunteer, learn
gardening techniques, walk the trails, meet people, and enjoy their free-time. This strengthened
community involvement has helped to ensure more funding, as well as better human capital in the
organization. The goals of the organization are largely being fulfilled, due directly to this shift in local
community engagement.
The status-quo operational activities of CGW are well-suited to this scenario. Currently, a focus on local
community engagement relies on communities in general being concerned with forming community-
connections by proximity. Support from the public sector at both the federal and state/local levels is
essential to CGWs operational budgets. If this scenario becomes a reality, CGW will not need to adjust
the framework of its current operations.
SCENARIO 2: MORE PUBLIC FUNDING AND SOCIAL MEDIA TRANSFORMS COMMUNITY
-
7/28/2019 Community GroundWorks Scenario Plan
9/12
8
The federal government has gained greater taxing power and ability to provide services. Increased focus
on generative social welfare has influenced programs in the USDA that support urban agriculture in
replacement of Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Programs and local food shelves. CGW is amongst a
number of non-profit organizations that have received block grants for its gardening, agricultural, and
educational activities. The USDA has teamed up with Wisconsins Department of Education to ensure
healthy lunches in public schools, which has allowed CGWs organic farm to retain steady buyers and a
secure cash flow from Madisons public schools. Also, the USDA has approved capital funding to setup
Small-Plot Individualistic gardening in the back-yards of low income households, on the grounds of food
security. Various social welfare programs are being promoted by federal agencies and approved by
congress. CGWs good reputation has allowed it to receive continued support from the public sector for
its programs and services.
The technological trend of improved social media connections has broken the spatial barriers of
communities. New communities are being formed every day, allowing people to communicate through
multi-media channels with like-minded people, from all over the planet. For many people, local
community culture has become antiquated and obsolete. Because of this phenomenon, community
involvement with CGW has suffered. Fewer and fewer people use Troy Gardens as a social hub and
community members that are interested in vegetable gardening have found more convenient
educational channels on the Internet. CGWs membership isnt growing, and its funding from private
donors has weakened. CGW for many people in the community has become ignored and forgotten
about.
CGWs current operational framework is based on local community involvement and public funding. In
this scenario, public funding has increased but the local public sphere has become increasingly obsolete.
The lack of meaningful interaction with social media-based communities has been detrimental to CGWs
success - from the perspectives of access to private funding and achieving its core mission statement.
Inertia in the organizations programming has caused a slow deterioration in local community interest as
society continued to transform the nature of community relationships.
-
7/28/2019 Community GroundWorks Scenario Plan
10/12
9
SCENARIO 3: LESS PUBLIC FUNDING AND COMMUNITY BECOMES MORE LOCAL
Due to fiscal constraints and a change in popular political doctrine, the federal governments role in
providing support to local social welfare programs has decreased. In order to reduce government
spending, the executive power merged the USDA with the EPA, and subsequently many of the food
security program provided by the USDA have been cutback. Admission requirements to Supplemental
Nutritional Assistance Programs have been increased to include only highly impoverished families, and
healthy food security organizations like CGW have been viewed by those in power as unnecessary.
Entire programs have been cut from the budget, CGWs federal funding included. The State of Wisconsin
and the City of Madison attempt to fill the void of funds, but the prospect of increasing taxes to support
CGW is unpopular. Decreased federal funding for all public services has increased pressure on local
municipalities. Political leaders are reluctant to increase taxes in fear of losing their constituents.
Widespread feelings of social alienation due to ubiquitous technological use and limiting social media
have caused resurgence in local community engagement. CGW has become more central to the
everyday lives of the surrounding neighborhoods and the Madison area at large. The property on Troy
Drives use as a social and educational hub for the community has been strengthened and expanded.
Many more people come to the Troy Gardens property to garden in the plots, volunteer, learn
gardening techniques, walk the trails, meet people, and enjoy their free-time. This strengthened
community involvement has helped to ensure more funding, as well as better human capital in the
organization. The goals of the organization are largely being fulfilled, due directly to this shift in local
community engagement.
CGWs budgetary issues have become a major concern because of reduced public funding, but the
increased focus on local community involvement has given the organization hope in filling the funding
gap. CGW amped-up its fundraising to get the most pecuniary support from those who benefit from
CGWs services or ethically-support the cause. Financial sustainability is unsure, however, and there is
worry in the organization that they will have to reduce funding for some of the programs. The growth of
the organization seems to have reached its limit.
-
7/28/2019 Community GroundWorks Scenario Plan
11/12
10
SCENARIO 4: LESS PUBLIC FUNDING AND SOCIAL MEDIA TRANSFORMS COMMUNITY
Due to fiscal constraints and a change in popular political doctrine, the federal governments role in
providing support to local social welfare programs has decreased. In order to reduce government
spending, the executive power merged the USDA with the EPA, and subsequently many of the food
security program provided by the USDA have been cutback. Admission requirements to Supplemental
Nutritional Assistance Programs have been increased to include only highly impoverished families, and
healthy food security organizations like CGW have been viewed by those in power as unnecessary.
Entire programs have been cut from the budget, CGWs federal funding included. The State of Wisconsin
and the City of Madison attempt to fill the void of funds, but the prospect of increasing taxes to support
CGW is unpopular. Decreased federal funding for all public services has increased pressure on local
municipalities. Political leaders are reluctant to increase taxes in fear of losing their constituents.
The technological trend of improved social media connections has broken the spatial barriers of
communities. New communities are being formed every day, allowing people to communicate through
multi-media channels with like-minded people, from all over the planet. For many people, local
community culture has become antiquated and obsolete. Because of this phenomenon, community
involvement with CGW has suffered. Fewer and fewer people use Troy Gardens as a social hub and
community members that are interested in vegetable gardening have found more convenient
educational channels on the Internet. CGWs membership isnt growing, and its funding from private
donors has weakened. CGW for many people in the community has become ignored and forgotten
about.
In this scenario, CGWs fiscal future and community impact is greatly challenged. Reduced public funding
has caused CGW to seek extra community support, but deteriorating community involvement has
increased the difficulty in garnering more private donations. Though the necessity of CGWs programs
has not decreased, CGWs community impact has. Fiscal constraints and social irrelevancy have caused
major stakeholders to abandon the organization.
-
7/28/2019 Community GroundWorks Scenario Plan
12/12
11
CONCLUDING THOUGHTS
This scenario planning exercise reveals two main challenges to the long-term viability of CGW: access to
public funding, and utilization of social media technologies. As these are two factors largely outside of
the control of the organization, undesirable changes in these areas will have detrimental consequences.
It is imperative that CGW prepares for the possibility of these undesirable scenarios.
There is a strong possibility that Scenario 4, in which public funding decreases and social media creates
communities that undermine local involvement, becomes the reality in 2023. In order to prepare for this
possibility, CGW must act to wean itself off of reliance on continuous support from the USDA and other
public funders. It is necessary for CGW to do this by increasing private and civil sector support through
increased exposure and fundraising.
As the nature of communities change, it is important for CGW to adapt as well. Social media
technologies can be utilized to engage a multitude of individuals, in the United States and around the
world, who are interested in urban gardening and healthy food. Media forums such as Facebook,
Youtube, Twitter, etc. can be used for public education as well as organizational exposure. The more
people who are aware of the organization and benefit from its knowledge and services, the greater base
of support there is for fundraising.
We hope that the information within this document may be useful to your organization in the years
ahead. Thank you for providing us with the support we needed to complete this project.