community colleges: preparing america’s workforce in the 21 st century presented by: dr. jesus...

Community Colleges: Preparing America’s Workforce in the 21st Century

Presented by:

Dr. Jesus “Jess” Carreon Chancellor, Dallas County Community College

District

What’s Changing?

Demographics Nature of work Workplace Worker

Future Work

By 2005, almost half of all workers will be employed in industries that produce or are intensive users of information technology.

Source: U.S.Dept. of Labor

Future Work (cont.)

Baby boomers make up almost half (47%) of the workforce today.

Young women are enrolling in college at a higher rate (70%) than young men (64%).


Future Work (cont.)

Small businesses employ about half of the nation's private sector workforce.


Future Work (cont.)

With more than 1600 corporate training institutions already established, “Corporate Universities” could surpass traditional universities, in number, by 2010.


75 Million Baby Boomers! (Born 1946 – 1965)

U.S. Population Projections

250,000,000

260,000,000

270,000,000

280,000,000

290,000,000

300,000,000

310,000,000

320,000,000

330,000,000

2001 2005 2010 2020

Source: U.S. Census Bureau

U.S. Population Projections


Projected U.S. Population - Age


34

35

36

37

38

39

40

2001 2005 2010 2020

Mean

Median

Geographic Distribution Persons 65+ 52% live in nine states:

California 3.6 million Florida 2.8 million New York 2.4 million Texas 2.1 million Pennsylvania 1.9 million Ohio, Illinois, Michigan, and New Jersey each with over 1 million.

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2000 Census

Geographic Distribution Persons 65+ (cont.)

Metropolitan areas 77.5%

Suburbs 50.0%


Regional Changes – 2025 Total Population

South and West will comprise majority of growth

Northeast 17.1% Midwest 20.7% West 26% South 36.2%


Projected U.S. Population by Ethnicity


-4

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

2005 2010 2020

Caucasian

Black

Hispanic

Asian/PacificIslander

AmericanIndian

% Change from 2001

% Change Ethnic Groups to 2025 Caucasian – Slowest Growing, still largest

Hispanic – 2nd Fastest Growing, Southwest

Black – 2nd Slowest Growing, all regions

Asian – Fastest Growing, all regions

American Indian – 3rd fastest growing


The Pipeline Challenge

“America will face a social and economic crisis unless it succeeds

in promoting and taking advantage of racial and ethnic

diversity.”

Business – Higher Education Forum - “Investing in People: Developing All of America’s Talent on Campus and in the

Workplace.”

Employment Trends

1990-2000 = +17% 2000-2010 = +15%

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

Growth in Civilian Workforce:

Observations

Largest shift will be decrease of “prime-age” (25-54) workers in the labor force.

Over 60% of workers do not have children at home but care for elderly family members.

Shift from defined-benefit to defined- contribution pensions has unknown impact.

Various organizational responses to technology impact productivity.

Source: The Urban Institute

More Observations

During 1992-99 expansion, college-educated workers accounted for 90% of growth.

Globalization of production has weakened the position of U.S. workers.

Although 1992-99 expansion increased job opportunities, many less educated workers have not reentered the job market.

Source: The Urban Institute

More Observations (cont.)

In the next 20 years . . .

The civilian labor force will see a major change in age cohorts.

Men 16 and over will continue to decline in numbers and percentage.

Minorities and women will continue to increase dramatically in the civilian workforce.


Projected U.S. Workforce


Occupations by Replacement Need

Created by Retirees 1998–2008

(in thousands)

Total, all employees 22,205

Secretaries ......................................................…. 519 Truck drivers, heavy ......................................….. 425Teachers, elementary school .........................….. 418Janitors and cleaners ..................................…….. 408Teachers, secondary school ..........................…….378Registered nurses ......................................……... 331Bookkeepers, accounting and auditing clerks …. 330Teachers, college and university .................….... 195

Source: Monthly Labor Review

Replacements Needed for Retirees (cont.)

Administrators, education and related fields ….. 178Farmers, except horticultural ........................….. 175Supervisors, construction occupations ..........….. 165Administrators and officials,................................ 143Real estate sales occupations .....................…….. 144Insurance sales occupations .......................…….. 135Industrial machinery repairers .......................….. 125Maids and housekeeping cleaners ...............…..... 122Private household cleaners and servants .....……. 112Physicians ....................................................…….. 108Financial managers .......................................….... 102Lawyers……………………………………………………….99


Industry Employment 2000-2010 Service Sector – Continues to dominate

growth adding 20.5 million jobs (+19%). Manufacturing down by 3%. Health, Business, Human Services,

Engineering, Management and related services account for 1 of every 2 non-farm jobs.


Occupational Employment 2000-2010

Professional and related occupations will add 7% and 5.1%, respectively.

Transportation and material moving occupations are projected to grow 15%.

Office admin support will grow more slowly.

8-10 fastest growing occupations are computer related.


Computer Software Engineer +100% Computer Support Specialist + 97% Medical Assistants + 57% Soc. & Human Serv. Asst. + 54% Physician Asst. + 53% Home Health Aide + 47% Veterinary Asst. + 40% Dental Asst. + 37%

Fastest Growing Occupations, 2000–2010 (National)


Fastest Growing Occupations,

New York (per year)

Computer Scientists +7.9% Computer Support Spec. +6.3% Paralegals +5.5% Medical Scientists +4.6% Post-sec. Health Teachers +4.4% Sheet Metal Duct Installers +4.4% Medical Asst. +4.0% Dental Asst. +3.6%

Source: NY Dept. of Labor

Fastest Growing Occupations, North Carolina (per year)

Computer Scientists +8.0% Desktop Publishing Spec. +7.0% Health Practitioners +6.7% Paralegals +6.5% Computer Support Spec. +6.4% Respiratory Therapists +5.8% Cardiology Techs. +5.7% Computer Science Teachers(post-sec.) +5.7%

Source: NC Employment Security Commission

Fastest Growing Occupations, Georgia (per year)

Computer Engineers +12.8 Demonstrators & Models +11.6% Human Service Workers +9.0% Home Health Aides +8.9% Offset Press Operators +7.2% Child Care Workers +6.4% Bakers +5.8% Private Detectives +5.4% Physical Therapists +5.1%

Source: NW Georgia Career Depot

Fastest Growing Occupations, Kentucky (per year)

Computer Scientists +13.9 Physical Therapy Asst. +10% Personal Home Care Aides +9.6% Computer Support Spec. +9.1% Physical Therapists +8.5% Occupational Therapists +8.2% Medical Asst. +7.8% Paralegals +7.2%

Source: Kentucky Dept. for Employment Services

Fastest Growing Occupations, Indiana (2000-2008)

Computer Engineers +100.2% Computer Support Spec. +73.8% Home Health Aides +64.7% Medical Asst. +61.5% Human Services Asst. +56.8% Ship Mates +52.9% Physician Asst. +48.1% Physical Therapy Asst. +46.4%

Source: Indiana Career & Postsecondary Advancement Center

Fastest Growing Occupations, Missouri (2000-2008)

Computer Scientists +82.1% Desktop Publishing Spec. +76.5% Computer Support Spec. +67.8% Paralegals +62.4% Health Practitioners +61.7% Computer Science Teachers +50.0% Rec/Leisure/ Fitness Teachers +47.1% Respiratory Therapists +44.1%

Source: Missouri Economic Research & Information Center

Fastest Growing Occupations, Texas (2000-2010)

Computer & Data Processing +55.5% Management & PR +41.3% Freight/Transportation Arrangement +41.1% Automobile Repair +39/7% Osteopathic Phys. Office Work +38.6% Individual & Family /Services +36.2% Health Office Occupations +35.9% Child Care Services +35.8 Residential Care +32.2%

Source: Texas Workforce Commission

Fastest Growing Occupations, Montana (per year)

Computer Support Spec. +83.6 Fitness Trainer +59.1% Home Care Aides +57% Medical Asst. +52.1% Human Service Asst. +51.3% Amusement & Rec. Attendants +47.0% Hotel, Motel Clerks +46.8% Tour Guides +41.1%

Source: Montana Dept. of Labor & Industry

Fastest Growing Occupations, Oregon (2000-2008)

Computer Support Spec. + 114% Human Service Asst. + 78% Private Detectives + 62% Occupational Therapy Aides + 55% Desktop Publishers + 52% Physical Therapists + 48% Physical Therapy Asst. + 47% Child Care Workers + 42%

Source: OR Labor Market Information System

Fastest Growing Occupations, California (2000-2010)

Computer Specialists +106.8% Human Service Asst. + 68.7% Medical Asst. + 52.7% Teachers (Spec. Ed, Pre-School, Kindergarten) + 51.3% Dental Asst., & Hygienists + 50.0% Medical Records Tech. + 49.3% Speech Pathologists + 48.3% PR Managers + 47.7%

Source: CA Labor Market Information System

Highly Skilled and Unskilled Jobs as a % of the Workforce

12.5%

14.1%15.6%

14.2%13.2% 12.7%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%

16%

Professional specialties (skilled) Operators, laborers andfabricators (unskilled)

1988

1998

2008


New Workforce Skills

Median Years of Job Tenure


Declining Job Tenure

4.00

4.25

4.50

4.75

5.00

Yea

rs

1996 vs 2000

The Workplace

Individual Rigid Company

Focused Non-

Responsive Insensitive to

Diversity

Coordinated Flexible Customer Focused Responsive Sensitive to

Diversity Other?_____

The 21st Century Worker

Skills Needed:

Academic (standard) Technical (standard) Social International/Intercultural

new

new

Implications for Workforce Education/Training

Labor shortage of skilled workers

Higher levels of education will be necessary to secure new, higher-paying jobs – 80% of jobs will require more post-secondary education

No easy answer whether supply of qualified workers will meet demand in key industry sectors

% of High School Graduates Attending College1979-97 and projected to 2010

58%54%

59.6%67%

75%71%

66%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

1979 1982 1985 1988 1991 1994 1997 2000 2003 2006 2009

Pe

rce

nt

Att

en

din

g

Source: U.S. Department of Education, National Center for Education Statistics and National Alliance of Business

Path to the American Dream

Projected Supply and Demand of Workers with some Postsecondary Education

60,000

70,000

80,000

90,000

100,000

110,000

120,000

130,000

140,000

150,000

1998 2008 2018 2028

Tho

usan

ds

Demand (Jobs) Supply (Workers)

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics Bureau , U.S. Census and National Alliance of Business

Education Required

Total Undergraduate Enrollment in Postsecondary Education,

1995 and 2015 (in millions)

16

Millio

n

13.4 Million

2.6 Million80% Minority31% 35 and

older

8

9

10

11

12

13

14

15

16

17

1995 2015

En

rollm

en

t in

millio

ns

Source: Carnevale, Anthony P. and Richard A. Fry. Crossing the Great Divide. Educational Testing Services, 2000.

Tidal Wave II

Projected Postsecondary Enrollment Distribution

by Institution, 1975 to 2015

6.4%

35.5%

5.3%4.7%

58.1%56.5%

38.1%

55.8%

39.5%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

Private university Other four-year Two-year

197519972015

Source: U.S. Department of Education, National Center for Education Statistics and National Alliance of Business

National Perspective

Associate Degree Desired% Growth in Occupations (1998 to 2008)

by Type* of Training Required

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

Do

cto

ral

deg

ree

Mas

ter'

sd

egre

e

Bac

hel

or'

sd

egre

e

Ass

oci

ate

deg

ree

Po

stse

con

dar

yv

oca

tion

altr

ain

ing

Lo

ng

-ter

m o

n-

the-

job

tra

inin

g

Sh

ort

-ter

m o

n-

the-

job

tra

inin

g

* Does not include all types of training

Students’ Readiness for College

Among families with incomes greater than $75,000 per year, < 60% of HS graduates were highly qualified for admission to 4-yr colleges.

For families under $25,000 per year, 47% were not even minimally qualified.

63% of community college students take at least one remedial course.

Source: U.S. Dept. of Education

Preparing a 21st Century Workforce : Everyone’s Involved

Providers:• K-16 (includes public and private 2 &

4 year colleges)• Private vocational schools,

consultants• Industry, businesses and labor unions

Need for continuous education and training as workplace demands change.

Fundamental Changes Training for new economy credentials

• Vendor provided credentials• Vendor driven curriculum • Rapid changes in job expertise

More than 300 discrete certifications Over 2.4 million IT certifications

awarded Most training providers outside

traditional higher education and on and on…

Opportunities for Community Colleges

Increasing Demand for skilled workers Shortage of prepared workers Job demand for post-secondary education Productivity based on skills Higher educational attainment Enrollment in post-secondary institutions

Decreasing job tenure

More Opportunities for Community Colleges Increasing

Education level of the workforce Enrollment in community colleges Diversity of community colleges Need for financial assistance

Anywhere & Anytime Learning: (flexible & responsive)

Competencies vs. completions Employer relationships Increasing government recognition.

Advocacy Issues

National• Elected policy makers• Reauthorization of the Higher Education Act• Perkins • Workforce Investment Act (WIA)• Temporary Aid for Needy Families (TANF)• Nursing Education• International Education• Others?

Advocacy Issues (cont.)

State• Elected policy makers• Effect of declining state economies on

budgets. Emphasize importance of education and

training in state economy. Emphasize the importance of affordable access. Emphasize role of workforce training in national

economy. Others?

…and More Advocacy Issues

Local/Regional• Pace of retirements/replacements• Small and medium size businesses• Urban, suburbs, rural uniqueness

What is Our Board’s Game Plan?

We understand the facts!

We understand the trends!

What is Our Board’s Game Plan?

Question:

How does this Board provide

leadership for AACC regarding key educational

and workforce training-related issues?

Sources of Demographic and Occupational DataAARP - http://www.aarp.org/ America’s Career InfoNet - http://www.acinet.org/

acinet/default.asp?soccode=&stfips= America’s Job Bank - dni.us - http://www.ajb. / Bureau of Labor Statistics - http://www.bls.gov/ Hudson Institute - http://www.hudson.org/

Sources of Demographic and Occupational Data (cont.)

Monthly Labor Review - http://www.bls.gov/opub/mlr/welcome.htm

National Alliance of Business - http://www.nab.com/ National Center for Education Statistics - http://nces

.ed.gov/ National Governors Association - http://www.nga.org/

National Institute on Aging - http://www.nia.nih.gov/

Sources of Demographic and Occupational Data (cont.)

State Employment Departments, Departments of Labor, & Labor Market Information Systems

Urban Institute - http://www.urban.org/ U.S. Administration on Aging - http://www.aoa.gov/ U.S. Census Bureau - http://www.census.gov/ U.S. Department of Labor - http://www.dol.gov/

Thank You!

Dr. Jesus “Jess” Carreon Chancellor,

Dallas County Community College

District [email protected]

community colleges: preparing america’s workforce in the 21 st century presented by: dr. jesus...

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