commonwealth bank of australia - the weekly source€¦ · 6 | commonwealth bank of australia |...
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| Commonwealth Bank of Australia || Commonwealth Bank of Australia || Commonwealth Bank of Australia |1
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■
■
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4
3.5
4.5
5.5
6.5
3.5
4.5
5.5
6.5
Jul-05 Jul-08 Jul-11 Jul-14 Jul-17
UNEMPLOYMENT RATE% %
Seasonally Adjusted
Trend
Source: ABS
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
Mar-06 Mar-09 Mar-12 Mar-15 Mar-18
WAGES & CPI(annual % change)
Core CPI
% %
WPI
Source: ABS
-2
0
2
4
6
-2
0
2
4
6
Sep-04 Sep-07 Sep-10 Sep-13 Sep-16
GDP(% change)
% %
Annual
Quarterly
5
-40 0 40 80
Health
Manufact
Prof Services
Construct
Mining
Education
Gov admin
Cultural & rec
Retail
EGW
Fin & insur
Agric
Wholesale
Accomm & cafes
Transp & stor
Real Estate
Communic
Admin services
Pers & other
JOBS GROWTH BY SECTOR(annual avg change, yr to Nov 2018)
'000s
Source: ABS
| Commonwealth Bank of Australia || Commonwealth Bank of Australia || Commonwealth Bank of Australia |6
$134
$142
$150
$161
$172 $172
$120
$130
$140
$150
$160
$170
$180
$190
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
$8,660
$9,224
$10,222
$11,134
$11,481
$7,000
$7,500
$8,000
$8,500
$9,000
$9,500
$10,000
$10,500
$11,000
$11,500
$12,000
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
7
0
60
120
180
0
60
120
180
Mar-89 Mar-95 Mar-01 Mar-07 Mar-13
HOUSEHOLD DEBT RATIOS(as % of disposable income)% %
Allhousing
Total
Source: RBA
Owner-occupied
0
5
10
15
20
0
5
10
15
20
Jun-82 Jun-88 Jun-94 Jun-00 Jun-06 Jun-12
RBA CASH RATE % %
Spot
5 year rolling average
8
0
5
10
15
0
5
10
15
Jan-11 Jan-13 Jan-15 Jan-17 Jan-19M
illio
ns
Mill
ions
HOUSING LOAN APPROVALS(excluding refinancing)$bn $bn
Owner-occupier ex FHB
Source: ABS
FHB
Investor
4
7
11
-10
0
10
Jul 09 Jul 11 Jul 13 Jul 15 Jul 17
%%pa Dwelling
prices, annual % change
(lhs)
FOREIGN BUYERS & DWELLING PRICES
Sources: CoreLogic / NAB
Foreign buyers, share of total,
(4mth adv)(rhs)
9
0
30
60
90
120
0
30
60
90
120
Jan-06 Jan-09 Jan-12 Jan-15 Jan-18T
housands
Thousands
SALES VOLUMES(rolling annual total)
000's
Sydney
Brisbane
000's
Source: CoreLogic
Melbourne
Perth
Adelaide
Canb
FY09A FY10A FY11A FY12A FY13A FY14A FY15A FY16A FY17A FY18A HY19A
10
11
MAJOR TRANSPORT INFRASTRUCTURE
PROJECTS(value of work done)
$bn
13
| Commonwealth Bank of Australia || Commonwealth Bank of Australia || Commonwealth Bank of Australia |14
| Commonwealth Bank of Australia || Commonwealth Bank of Australia || Commonwealth Bank of Australia |
Aged Care
• Quality & Safety
• Compliance
• New standards
• Funding
• Workforce
Retirement
• Property market slow down
• New contract structures
• Regulatory changes for exit entitlements
• Change in customer profile
Homecare
• Workforce
• CRM / ERM Capex
• Capacity utilisation
• Margin management (services / products)
• Logistics
• Marketing
16
Fundamental Cyclical Disruptive
| Commonwealth Bank of Australia || Commonwealth Bank of Australia || Commonwealth Bank of Australia |
| Commonwealth Bank of Australia || Commonwealth Bank of Australia || Commonwealth Bank of Australia |
| Commonwealth Bank of Australia || Commonwealth Bank of Australia || Commonwealth Bank of Australia |20
| Commonwealth Bank of Australia || Commonwealth Bank of Australia || Commonwealth Bank of Australia |
1.83
3.00
0.50 1.00 1.50 2.00 2.50 3.00 3.50
AL
OS
Years
2017
2022
21
110,959
59,623
- 20,000 40,000 60,000 80,000 100,000 120,000
Nu
mb
er o
f Ne
wA
ddm
issio
ns
New Admissions
2017
2022
| Commonwealth Bank of Australia || Commonwealth Bank of Australia || Commonwealth Bank of Australia |22
| Commonwealth Bank of Australia || Commonwealth Bank of Australia || Commonwealth Bank of Australia |23
| Commonwealth Bank of Australia || Commonwealth Bank of Australia || Commonwealth Bank of Australia |24
| Commonwealth Bank of Australia || Commonwealth Bank of Australia || Commonwealth Bank of Australia |25
| Commonwealth Bank of Australia || Commonwealth Bank of Australia || Commonwealth Bank of Australia |26
| Commonwealth Bank of Australia || Commonwealth Bank of Australia || Commonwealth Bank of Australia |27
| Commonwealth Bank of Australia || Commonwealth Bank of Australia || Commonwealth Bank of Australia |28
| Commonwealth Bank of Australia || Commonwealth Bank of Australia || Commonwealth Bank of Australia |29
| Commonwealth Bank of Australia || Commonwealth Bank of Australia || Commonwealth Bank of Australia | Confidential30
| Commonwealth Bank of Australia || Commonwealth Bank of Australia || Commonwealth Bank of Australia |
Sachin Kumar
Confidential31