commodity weather group, llc energy weather summer seminar presentation matt rogers april 15, 2010
TRANSCRIPT
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Commodity Weather Group, LLC
Energy WeatherSummer Seminar Presentation
Matt RogersApril 15, 2010
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Today’s Agenda
• Brief Intro• Latest Summer Outlook• Key Arguments (and Risks)• Atlantic Hurricane Season
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Brief Intro
• Matt Rogers, President and Co-Founder of Commodity Weather Group~16 Years in Commodity Weather Support (Energy)
• Commodity Weather Group, LLC– Started in April 2009– Located in Bethesda, MD– Focus on Agriculture and Energy Commodities– 75+ Collective Years’ Experience in Consulting
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CWG Summer Outlook
~.4% warmer than running 10Y normal
~2% warmer than running 30Y normal
~6% warmer than 2009 (both JJA and MJJAS)
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Month-by-Month
Best Chance for Most Frequent Heat is in the Pacific Northwest and Texas
Main Themes FavorA Cool Start
and a HotterFinish Overall
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Key Arguments
Solar
January
Tropical Pacific
AO
Tokyo?
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Solar
Jan-50
May-51
Sep-52
Jan-54
May-55
Sep-56
Jan-58
May-59
Sep-60
Jan-62
May-63
Sep-64
Jan-66
May-67
Sep-68
Jan-70
May-71
Sep-72
Jan-74
May-75
Sep-76
Jan-78
May-79
Sep-80
Jan-82
May-83
Sep-84
Jan-86
May-87
Sep-88
Jan-90
May-91
Sep-92
Jan-94
May-95
Sep-96
Jan-98
May-99
Sep-00
Jan-02
May-03
Sep-04
Jan-06
May-07
Sep-08
Jan-10
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
Monthly Sunspot Number (Jan 1950 to Mar 2010)
1955 1966 1977 1988 1998 2010
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BUT: Solar Split
1955: 6.641966: 6.841988: -2.04
1977: -17.211998: -22.08
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Tropical Pacific
Jan Feb Mar AprMay Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
195819661969197319831992199820102003
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Closest North Pacific Fit
April 3, 2010April 3, 1969
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Arctic Oscillation
Dec-50
Aug-52
Apr-54
Dec-55
Aug-57
Apr-59
Dec-60
Aug-62
Apr-64
Dec-65
Aug-67
Apr-69
Dec-70
Aug-72
Apr-74
Dec-75
Aug-77
Apr-79
Dec-80
Aug-82
Apr-84
Dec-85
Aug-87
Apr-89
Dec-90
Aug-92
Apr-94
Dec-95
Aug-97
Apr-99
Dec-00
Aug-02
Apr-04
Dec-05
Aug-07
Apr-09
-1.5
-1
-0.5
0
0.5
1
1.512-Month Running AO
1969
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Arctic Oscillation Q1
1969 -2.62010 -2.41960 -2.11958 -2.11970 -1.91966 -1.9
Top AO Years HaveClose Fit Pattern
1958 is Best Fit1969 Second
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AO vs. ENSO
W-Based -AO1958 x x1966 x x1969 x x1973 1983 1992 1998 x2003 x
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January ClueYear Jan GWHDD Summer
2006 714.8 Hot
2002 820.6 Hot
2007 899.9 Hot
2005 926.3 Hot
2000 932.5 Cool
2008 935.9 Cool
2001 964.1 Cool
2010 983.6 ?
2003 1002.8 Cool
2009 1026.4 Cool
2004 1034.1 Cool
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What Could Go Wrong?
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What Could Go Wrong?
Still not a big hot summer, but main
anomalies are opposite of
expectations.
BigHot
Summer
The pattern type is similar, but the
Midwest is warmer and Texas is much
much warmer!
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A New Clue?
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A Tokyo Trigger?
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A New Clue?
Four of Five Hottest Chicago Summers
were in Same Year as Relatively Cool Tokyo
May Periods
Four of Five Coolest Chicago Summers
were in Same Year as Relatively Warm
Tokyo May Periods
Actually linked to a prevailing pattern in northeast Asia.Look for more info in Energy Weather blogs in May.
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Atlantic Tropics
FORECAST 2010 2009 NORMAL
NAMED 14 9 10
HURRICANE 8 3 6
MAJOR 3 2 2Gulf Major: Zero or One
2010 1969 1958 1970 1998 20050
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
1.2
1.4
March Tropical North Atlantic Index
(1) Upper Level Winds Not Expected to be as Favorable as 2005 in Gulf toWestern Caribbean
(2) Very Warm Atlantic Ocean MayFavor Stronger Cape Verde Season
(3) Late Season Timing Possible
H M GM1969 12 5 11958 7 5 01970 5 2 21998 10 3 02005 15 7 4Mean 9.8 4.4 1.4
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Commodity Weather Group
Thank You