commodity monthly monitor - etfs.wisdomtree.eu 02_commodity monthly... · around us$5/bbl, a level...
TRANSCRIPT
Summary ContentsCommodities market overview 1
Summary tables 4
CFTC net positioning 5
Inventories 9
Moving average and volumes 13
Futures curves 17
Roll yields 21
Recent publications 27
Performance2
- 1 Mth - 6 Mth - 12 Mth
All Commodities 3.7% -11.5% -22.9%
Energy 8.6% -29.5% -43.3%
Industrial Metals 1.4% -9.4% -9.3%
Precious Metals 4.4% -4.6% -10.4%
Agriculture -0.1% -8.6% -29.6%
MSCI World 4.6% 12.1% 9.9%
US Aggregate Bond 1.2% 1.8% 5.3%
Commodity Monthly Matrix1
WTI Oil 56 25.8% -20.6% 24.7% 0% -2.3% (3) (4)
Brent Oil 60 10.3% -21.1% -0.3% 55% -4.7% 1 0 (in '000 contracts)
Natural Gas 2.6 -4.3% -24.6% -48.3% -3% -1.5% (2) 0
Gasoline 1.9 9.9% -6.1% -5.2% -6% 0.0% (1) (1)
Heating Oil 1.9 10.3% -16.7% -28.2% -69% -0.1% (1) 2
Carbon 6.9 6.0% 3.3% - - -0.3% 0 (4)
Wheat 4.9 -3.5% -8.3% 0.6% -6% 0.4% (2) (2)
Corn 3.8 0.5% 1.1% -0.4% -36% -1.8% 0 (2)
Soybeans 10 -0.3% -6.8% -1.4% -154% -0.3% (2) 0
Sugar 0.1 2.4% -13.7% - -106% 0.6% (1) (3)
Cotton 0.6 6.8% 2.2% 1.3% -12% -0.6% (2) (2)
Coffee 1.4 7.4% -21.5% - 92% -1.1% (1) (5)
Soybean Oil 0.3 5.3% -2.3% 2.1% -37% -0.7% (3) (2)
Cocoa 2,817 -2.9% -6.0% - -56% -0.2% (4) 1 Source: CFTC, Bloomberg
Aluminum 1,801 1.8% -6.0% -4.6% 2% -0.3% 1 0
Copper 5,963 1.4% -7.4% 67.5% 77% 0.1% 1 1
Zinc 2,197 9.8% -0.4% -12.2% 31% -0.2% 1 (2)
Nickel 12,648 -10.2% -20.9% 3.3% -68% -0.1% (4) (4)
Lead 1,998 12.4% 0.3% -3.9% 52% -0.2% 2 0
Tin 15,826 -8.3% -20.0% -19.9% -16% -0.1% (2) 0
Gold 1,202 4.3% -2.2% - 14% - 2 (4)
Silver 16 5.2% -6.7% - 55% - 2 (4)
Platinum 1,156 3.6% -9.2% - 31% - 2 (4)
Palladium 767 -2.7% -5.1% - - - (2) (2)
Live Cattle 1.6 4.2% 0.7% - - 6.0% 4 0
Lean Hogs 0.6 1.2% -28.3% - - -9.5% (2) (2) For any questions or comments please contact:
Feeder Cattle 2.2 1.0% -2.8% - - 1.3% 2 2 Josh Tiwana, Research Analyst
TEL: +44 20 7448 4357,[email protected]
1
15-Apr Score
The score matrix is designed to highlight significant changes in key variables but should not be viewed as predictor of performance. Source: ETF Securities, Bloomberg
13-Mar Score
Inventories3
(- 3 Mths)
Price vs 200 days MA
" - " Information not available. Green = returns positive, inventories falling, positioning rising, roll yield positive. Red = the opposite. Black = neutral. 1 Detailed explanation of the matrix calculations can be found at the end of this report. 2 All prices are futures
prices to April 15, 2015. Broad sector returns based on Bloomberg Commodity Index family. 3 % change in inventory over the past 3 months except for sugar and coffee which are based on past 6 months as data is updated bi-annually by USDA. 4 CFTC futures
and LME COTR net positioning as at April 7, 2015, and April 10, 2015 respectively, % change from previous month. 5 Calculated as % difference between front month and second month futures prices on report date.
Roll Yield5
Commodity markets have posted gains in all sectors, with the exception of agriculture. A rebound in oil prices saw the energy sector lead gains, as global economic activity moved higher, albeit sluggishly. Central banks remain aggressively supportive with Chinese policy makers using multiple stimulus tools, which combined with policy stimulus in Europe, will likely drive demand for commodities higher in 2015. China, a key consumer of most commodities, is likely to surprise to the upside. Despite the recent oil price rally, the price war appears to be abating as OPEC raises prices in Asia. The number of rigs in operation in the US is falling, but it may be too early to say that supply is really tightening in global markets with OPEC continuing to pump oil at a break-neck pace. The weakness in general inflation resulting from low oil prices is likely to keep global monetary policy at a loose setting, helping reinforce the global recovery path and although gradual, lift cyclical commodity prices.
Commodity Monthly MonitorCommodity Supply Outlook ImprovesApril/May 2015
Current
Price2
Returns(-1 Mth)
Positioning4
(- 1 Mth)
Committed policy easing in China lifts industrial metal sentiment. While individual industrial metals will continue to trade in line with their own fundamentals, we believe that an upside surprise in Chinese and European economic growth rates will lift the tide for all industrial metals. At the same time supply for most industrial metals remain tighter than commonly perceived in the market. Supply forecasts rarely factor in mine disruptions from strikes or weather.
El Niño back on the cards. El Nino weather conditions can have a diverse impact on agricultural commodities depending on the geographical location of the major crop producers. As a result, South American production in soft commodities is likely, in general, to be improved, while in the grains space, US production somewhat lower than normal. Nevertheless, weather is unpredictable and requires growing conditions to be watched closely.
More production cuts needed to sustain higher oil prices. Although oil stockpiles continue to rise despite the decline in rig counts, there are early signs of production moderation. Nonetheless further shale output cuts need to be made in the face of abundant OPEC production to sustain the recent rally. Meanwhile natural gas prices continue to plumb multi-year lows as seasonal demand wanes due to mild weather.
Defensive precious metals well supported. Softer US economic data and the lingering threat surrounding the Greek sovereign debt situation are likely to keep precious metals like gold a part of conservative portfolios. Indeed, for non-US investors, QE policy from major central banks is pressuring domestic currencies lower against the USD and supporting gold performance in local currencies.
•
•
•
•
Sources: Bloomberg, DJ-UBS CI TR Indexes for basket returns, data to Wednesday
15 April 2015.
CFTC Net Speculative Positioning
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2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Precious Metals Livestock Industrial MetalsEnergy Agriculture
Agriculture Agriculture - April Returns*
Source: Bloomberg
Industrial Metals Industrial Metals - April Returns*
Source: Bloomberg
Energy Energy - April Returns*
Source: Bloomberg
Precious Metals Precious Metals - April Returns*
Source: Bloomberg
*Note: all returns are based on front month futures prices in the month to Wednesday 15 April 2015.2
Since a formal reduction in the Chinese growth target was announced in March, industrial metal performance has been buoyant, driven by improving fundamentals and Chinese stimulus.
Lead and Zinc have seen significant price recoveries as stockpiles have declined sharply. We believe that there is considerable upside to the zinc price from current levels, with inventories monitored by the London Metals Exchange having fallen to their lowest levels since February 2010. Meanwhile, demand continues to grow and mine depletions are likely to increase due to intensive extraction practices. This should ensure that the global zinc market remains in deficit until higher prices promote the development of mines in Australia, Indonesia and Russia.
Nickel has resumed its decline, falling 12.3% in the past month to reach levels not seen for over five years. The collapse in the price has been driven by an accumulation of nickel inventories to record levels, as Philippine exports of ore have displaced Indonesian production. Prices will likely continue to be pressured until Philippine authorities follow the same path as their neighbours and restrict exports.
With El Niño back on the radar, agricultural commodities are likely to gain traction this year. The weather pattern which makes some parts of the world drier and others more wet than normal is likely to disrupt the production of several agricultural commodities, if it gathers strength.
At the moment the El Niño remains weak and is unlikely to affect many crops if it remains so. In the past month coffee gained 7.4%, as the Brazilian Real has stopped depreciating. Previously the falling Real encouraged Brazilian producers to offload stocks of coffee into global markets, a trend we expect to abate with a firmer exchange rate and a second year of supply deficit.
Cotton rose 6.8% as US farmers intend to plant the least amount of the crop since 2009, helping to tighten the market.
Sector Overview
With the exception of palladium, precious metal prices have risen in the past month, albeit in a volatile fashion. The primary factor driving price movements has been indications over the timing and pace of US monetary tightening. Last month, the FOMC lowered its year end estimate of the Fed’s overnight borrowing rate by 0.5% which sent the Dollar tumbling and precious metals rising. Since then, subpar US jobs and retail sales data have kept precious metal prices supported. Going forward, gold and silver prices should remain relatively range bound, being subject to the impact of data releases which suggest a moderation or improvement of US growth prospects.
Palladium has suffered from an appreciating Dollar and poor sentiment in recent months, however underlying supply weakness points to a recovery in the medium term. The palladium market is expected to be in deficit for the third year in a row while passenger-vehicle sales in China and Europe have surged 12% and 10% respectively in March. This produces an extremely price positive environment for palladium, which receives a majority of its demand from autocatalyst production.
With the exception of natural gas, all energy commodities traded higher last month. Sentiment toward crude has changed decisively. After falling by almost 60% between the peak in June 2014 to the trough in March 2015, WTI has gained close to 26% in the past month. While total US oil rigs are at the lowest level since 2009, milder weather and a higher natural gas rig count are keeping natural gas prices at multi-year lows. Lower oil inventory builds have helped remove some of the excessive negative sentiment toward the commodity. In fact shorts on WTI futures have declined by close to 15% in the past three weeks.
With Brent gaining a more modest 10% in the past month, the Brent-WTI spread has narrowed to around US$5/bbl, a level comparable to the average in 2014, after a period in which the two oil benchmarks were more than US$10/bbl apart. Over the short-term we believe there will be a pull-back in both oil benchmarks because global supply has not yet tightened. In fact, OPEC output surged by 810,000 barrels per day in March. Storage capacity constraints in the US could also see more of the oil produced in the US hit the market which would weigh on price. All eyes will remain on the OPEC cartel for cues of production cuts coming at its June meeting.
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Oil
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Positioning Top 5/Bottom 5 Change in CFTC Net Positions1
Source: Bloomberg
Inventories Top 5/Bottom 5 Change in Inventories2
Curve Dynamics Top 5/Bottom 5 Roll Yields3
Source: Bloomberg
Technicals Top 5/Bottom 5 Price Diff to 200 day moving av. (dma)4
Source: Bloomberg
1 CFTC futures net positioning as at report date, percent change from previous month.
2 Percent change in inventory based on 3 month change (in %).
3 Roll yields calculated as percent change between front month futures price and next month futures price on Apr 15, 2015.
4 Percent difference between the front month futures price and its 200 day moving average on Apr 15, 2015. 3
The price of wheat fell below its 50dma this month as increased EU production weighs on global prices.
The Nickel price has come under pressure from burgeoning inventories that currently sit at an all-time high. Following its climb to a two year high last May the Nickel price has collapsed as supply concerns have failed to materialise.
While both Brent and WTI have risen above their respective 50dmaas, they remain significantly below their 200dmas after the precipitous fall in price in at the beginning of this year.
Technical Overview
Speculative positioning in coffee futures have moved from being net short of 5,491 contracts at the end of March to only net short of 171 contacts in mid-April, as some of the negative sentiment toward the crop has lifted.
Soybean speculative positioning has moved from net long last month to net short as increased planting intentions in the US threaten to drive over-supply.
Short speculative positions in copper have fallen from February highs as bearish sentiment toward the red metal has eased following an announcement of stimulus measures by Chinese authorities.
Net long speculative positioning in Brent increased 55% over the past month. While short positions have not eased considerably in the past month, longs have reached an all-time high.
Live cattle futures have the steepest backwardation, providing a roll yield of 6.0% while lean hog futures have the steepest contango, providing a negative roll yield of 9.5%.
Front month contango in Brent widened to 4.7% from just 0.9% a month ago, while contango in WTI narrowed to 2.3% from 4.9% last month.
Wheat prices have fallen 3.5% over the month and its futures curve has tipped into backwardation, with the roll yield increasing by 0.9% over the same period.
Soybean inventories have fallen 1.4% in the past 3 months, a trend that should help counter some of the weight from higher planting intentions in the US this year.
Copper inventories as monitored by the London Metal Exchange have soared 91% year to date and are 40% greater than year ago levels. However, the price has rebounded from recent lows as Chinese authorities indicate that growth targets will be supported by accommodative policy measures.
US oil inventories continue to build, albeit at a more moderate pace in recent weeks. However, inventories currently stand at seven standard deviations above their historical 5 year average and storage at the Cushing hub has risen to 70% of working capacity. Source: Bloomberg
-200% -150% -100% -50% 0% 50% 100% 150%
Coffee
Copper
Silver
Brent Oil**
Lead
Cocoa
Nickel
Heating Oil
Sugar
Soybeans
-60% -40% -20% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80%
Copper - LME
Copper
WTI Oil
Nickel
Soybean Oil
Gasoline
Zinc
Tin
Heating Oil
Natural Gas
-30% -20% -10% 0% 10%
Carbon
Cotton
Corn
Live Cattle
Lead
Nickel
Brent Oil
Coffee
Natural Gas
Lean Hogs
% < 200 dma % > 200 dma
-15% -10% -5% 0% 5% 10%
Live Cattle
Feeder Cattle
Sugar
Wheat
Copper
Natural Gas
Corn
WTI Oil
Brent Oil
Lean Hogs
Contango Backwardation
4 23 42 61 4 3
Energy Energy
WTI Oil 56 25.8% 21.9% -31.0% -45.6% WTI Oil USD/bbl. NYMEX -2.3% -2.8% -4.9% -1.0%
Brent Oil 60 10.3% 26.5% -28.0% -44.5% Brent Oil USD/bbl. ICE -4.7% -2.0% -0.9% -1.2%
Natural Gas 2.6 -4.3% -17.4% -31.3% -42.9% Natural Gas USD/MMBtu NYMEX -1.5% -1.8% -0.8% 1.2%
Gasoline 1.9 9.9% 49.0% -9.9% -36.4% Gasoline USD/gal. NYMEX 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% -2.6%
Heating Oil 1.9 10.3% 16.4% -23.2% -36.8% Heating Oil USD/gal. NYMEX -0.1% -0.5% 1.1% 1.9%
Carbon 6.9 6.0% -4.2% 11.4% 23.9% Carbon EUR/MT ICE -0.3% -0.4% -0.5% -0.3%
Agriculture Agriculture
Wheat 4.9 -3.5% -7.9% -3.0% -30.1% 4 Wheat USD/bu. CBOT 0.4% 0.5% -0.5% -0.6%
Corn 3.8 0.5% -1.1% 8.2% -25.4% Corn USD/bu. CBOT -1.8% -2.1% -2.1% -1.9%
Soybeans 9.7 -0.3% -2.6% 1.3% -35.7% Soybeans USD/bu. CBOT -0.3% -0.5% -0.5% -0.6%
Sugar 0.1 2.4% -15.3% -21.2% -21.5% 3 Sugar USD/lb. NYBOT 0.6% 0.6% -0.5% -1.3%
Cotton 0.6 6.8% 8.6% 1.4% -28.2% Cotton USD/lb. NYBOT -0.6% 0.4% -1.1% -1.3%
Coffee 1.4 7.4% -23.1% -37.1% -29.3% Coffee USD/lb. NYBOT -1.1% -2.2% -2.3% -1.5%
Soybean Oil 0.3 5.3% -3.6% -0.6% -25.8% Soybean Oil USD/lb. CBOT -0.7% -0.6% -0.6% -0.4%
Cocoa 2,817 -2.9% -5.4% -10.7% -4.5% Cocoa USD/MT NYBOT -0.2% 0.2% 2.8% 0.4%
Industrial Metals Industrial Metals
Aluminum 1,801 1.8% 1.1% -5.6% -1.6% Aluminum USD/MT LME -0.3% 0.7% 0.5% 0.1%
Copper 2.7 1.3% 6.0% -9.9% -9.2% 5 Copper USD/lb. COMEX 0.1% -0.1% 0.4% 0.0%
Copper (LME) 5,963 1.4% 5.0% -10.6% -8.9% 6 Copper (LME) USD/MT LME 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.3%
Zinc 2,197 9.8% 6.9% -3.4% 7.9% Zinc USD/MT LME -0.2% -0.2% -0.2% -0.1%
Nickel 12,648 -10.2% -12.3% -19.9% -28.3% Nickel USD/MT LME -0.1% -0.1% -0.1% -0.1%
Lead 1,998 12.4% 13.1% -0.2% -4.8% Lead USD/MT LME -0.2% 0.0% 0.0% -0.4%
Tin 15,826 -8.3% -18.1% -19.2% -32.4% Tin USD/MT LME -0.1% -0.1% -0.1% -0.1%
Precious Metals Precious Metals
Gold 1,202 4.3% -5.0% -3.4% -7.6% 7 Gold USD/t oz. COMEX 0.0% 0.0% -0.1% -0.1%
Silver 16.3 5.2% -4.7% -6.8% -16.5% Silver USD/t oz. COMEX -0.3% -0.3% -0.1% -0.2%
Platinum 1,156 3.6% -8.4% -8.4% -20.0% 9 Platinum USD/t oz. NYMEX -0.1% -0.1% -0.2% -0.1%
Palladium 767 -2.7% 0.1% 0.4% -3.6% Palladium USD/t oz. NYMEX -0.1% -0.1% 0.0% -0.1%
Livestock Livestock
Live Cattle 1.6 4.2% 4.2% -1.4% 10.6% 1 Live Cattle USD/lb. CME 6.0% 6.7% 5.7% 0.9%
Lean Hogs 0.6 1.2% -16.9% -31.6% -48.3% Lean Hogs USD/lb. CME -9.5% -11.3% -12.9% -3.5%
Feeder Cattle 2.2 1.0% -0.2% -9.3% 20.1% 2 Feeder Cattle USD/lb. CME 1.3% 1.3% 1.1% 4.9%Sources: Bloomberg, ETF Securities Sources: Bloomberg, ETF Securities
Energy Energy
WTI Oil 294,527 277,650 294,609 285,500 440,872 6 Oil - US 483,687 30% 5% 25% 31%
Brent Oil** 113,844 82,191 73,600 3,311 116,417 Oil - OECD Europe** 300 -5% - 0% 0%
Natural Gas -227,700 -133,046 -221,775 -194,041 -58,584 Natural Gas - DOE 1,476 -11% 1% -48% -55%
Gasoline 64,405 61,624 68,592 46,839 80,666 Gasoline - DOE 227,873 6% -3% -5% 11%
Heating Oil -32,976 7,123 -19,485 -19,833 -22,607 Heating Oil - DOE 10,536 -57% -16% -28% -26%
Agriculture Industrial Metals
Wheat -53,587 -13,468 -50,466 -50,277 32,927 Aluminum 4,125,560 -20% 0% -5% -14%
Corn 69,765 206,220 108,770 161,932 322,467 Aluminum - LME 3,880,150 -20% -1% -6% -14%
Soybeans -6,297 114,061 11,613 -12,121 194,563 Aluminium - SHFE 245,410 -28% 13% 28% 2%
Sugar -38,568 85,976 -18,760 12,372 160,846 Copper 602,984 7% 1% 67% 123%
Cotton 43,976 39,080 50,221 1,126 53,933 Copper - LME 337,250 -6% 1% 70% 118%
Coffee -171 10,879 -2,075 51,820 41,474 Copper - SHFE 240,775 65% 0% 76% 191%
Soybean Oil 22,850 9,015 36,325 39,561 38,394 Copper - COMEX 24,959 -58% 1% 2% -26%
Cocoa 27,636 31,017 62,985 59,767 68,037 Nickel - LME 432,000 128% 0% 3% 15%
Industrial Metals5 Zinc 649,982 -42% -4% -12% -26%
Copper -4,911 -1,628 -21,510 -23,936 -21,395 Zinc - LME 500,725 -40% -7% -24% -31%
Aluminum 174,327 197,993 171,244 197,112 - Zinc - SHFE 149,257 -47% 8% 89% 1%
Nickel 5,595 21,157 17,420 24,906 - Lead 259,121 -21% -7% -4% -13%
Zinc 81,635 84,327 62,326 97,773 - Lead - LME 211,025 -19% -8% -2% -6%
Lead 24,630 19,246 16,236 16,900 - Lead - SHFE 48,096 -27% -2% -11% -35%
Tin 2,221 2,082 2,645 1,423 - Tin - LME 9,695 -30% -8% -20% 6%
Precious Metals Agriculture
Gold 110,947 158,685 97,229 87,360 113,558 Wheat - USDA 197,210 2.8% -0.3% 0.6% 2.4%
Silver 39,692 25,242 25,638 1,812 9,270 Corn - USDA 188,460 33% 1.7% -0.4% -1.1%
Platinum 29,086 28,694 22,121 24,823 44,967 Soybeans - USDA 89,550 45% 0.0% -1.4% -1%
Palladium 16,217 16,300 21,882 22,887 24,360 Sugar - USDA 41,904 17% - - -6%
Livestock Cotton - USDA 110,090 51% 0.0% 1.3% 2.8%
Live Cattle 88,735 87,094 66,751 127,697 153,983 Coffee - USDA 36,495 14% - - 14%
Lean Hogs 5,042 51,087 31,002 86,617 103,563 Soybean Oil - USDA 3,460 -9% -4.2% 2% 7%
Feeder Cattle 6,564 8,072 4,993 7,549 16,492 Sources: Bloomberg, ETF Securities
1Performance of front month futures from 15 Apr 14 (1 Year), 15 Oct 14 (6 Month), 15 Jan 15 (3 Month) and 15 Mar 15 (1 Month) to 15 Apr 15.
2Roll return non-annualised from front month futures into second " month on 15 Jan 15 (3 Month), 16 Mar 15 (1 Month), 08 Apr 15 (1 Week), 15 Apr 15.
4
3Net positions in number of contracts.
4Current inventories relative to 1, 3, 6 months ago. Under the column "5 yr average" is the current inventory level relative to 5 year average inventory. For energy, 5 yr average is the average of the same month as
report month over the past 5 years. **Brent 5 Yr average of net positions from January 2011 as positions were not reported by CFTC before then and inventory data (OECD) reported with 2 month lag with current = Dec 2014.5All Industrial metals
positioning data (excluding copper) is sourced from LME COTR data in Bloomberg from 28th July 14 (first available date).
1 YearCurrent
Current 1 Year
5 Yr Average
1 MonthCFTC NET
POSITIONING3
PRICES1 3 Month
6 Month6 Month5 Yr
Average1 Month 3 MonthINVENTORY LEVELS
4 Current
1 Month6 Month 1 WeekExchangeUnit 3 Month1 Month ROLL YIELDS2 15-Apr
Summary Tables
Agriculture
Source: Bloomberg, ETF Securities Source: Bloomberg, ETF Securities
Source: Bloomberg, ETF Securities Source: Bloomberg, ETF Securities
Source: Bloomberg, ETF Securities Source: Bloomberg, ETF Securities
Source: Bloomberg, ETF Securities Source: Bloomberg, ETF Securities
Note: standard deviation based on 5 year average CFTC non-commercial net positioning 5All commodity futures price data is denominated in USD unless otherwise indicated.
CFTC Speculative Net Long Futures Positions
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-10
Ja
n-1
1
Ap
r-11
Ju
l-11
Oct
-11
Ja
n-1
2
Ap
r-12
Ju
l-12
Oct
-12
Ja
n-1
3
Ap
r-13
Ju
l-13
Oct
-13
Ja
n-1
4
Ap
r-14
Ju
l-14
Oct
-14
Ja
n-1
5
Ap
r-15
Corn
CFTC non-commercial net positioning Price (RHS, USD/bu.)
1x stdv
-1x stdv
2x stdv
-2x stdv
5 Yr Average
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
-20
0
20
40
60
80
100
Ap
r-10
Ju
l-10
Oct
-10
Ja
n-1
1
Ap
r-11
Ju
l-11
Oct
-11
Ja
n-1
2
Ap
r-12
Ju
l-12
Oct
-12
Ja
n-1
3
Ap
r-13
Ju
l-13
Oct
-13
Ja
n-1
4
Ap
r-14
Ju
l-14
Oct
-14
Ja
n-1
5
Ap
r-15
Cotton
CFTC non-commercial net positioning Price (RHS, USD/lb.)
1x stdv
-1x stdv
2x stdv
-2x stdv
5 Yr Average
0.20
0.25
0.30
0.35
0.40
0.45
0.50
0.55
0.60
0.65
-80
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
80
100
Ap
r-10
Ju
l-10
Oct
-10
Ja
n-1
1
Ap
r-11
Ju
l-11
Oct
-11
Ja
n-1
2
Ap
r-12
Ju
l-12
Oct
-12
Ja
n-1
3
Ap
r-13
Ju
l-13
Oct
-13
Ja
n-1
4
Ap
r-14
Ju
l-14
Oct
-14
Ja
n-1
5
Ap
r-15
Soybean Oil
CFTC non-commercial net positioning Price (RHS, USD/lb.)
1x stdv
-1x stdv
2x stdv
-2x stdv
5 Yr Average
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
-100
-50
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
Ap
r-10
Ju
l-10
Oct
-10
Ja
n-1
1
Ap
r-11
Ju
l-11
Oct
-11
Ja
n-1
2
Ap
r-12
Ju
l-12
Oct
-12
Ja
n-1
3
Ap
r-13
Ju
l-13
Oct
-13
Ja
n-1
4
Ap
r-14
Ju
l-14
Oct
-14
Ja
n-1
5
Ap
r-15
Soybeans
CFTC non-commercial net positioning Price (RHS, USD/bu.)
1x stdv
-1x stdv
2x stdv
-2x stdv
5 Yr Average
0.05
0.10
0.15
0.20
0.25
0.30
0.35
0.40
-50
0
50
100
150
200
250
Ap
r-10
Ju
l-10
Oct
-10
Ja
n-1
1
Ap
r-11
Ju
l-11
Oct
-11
Ja
n-1
2
Ap
r-12
Ju
l-12
Oct
-12
Ja
n-1
3
Ap
r-13
Ju
l-13
Oct
-13
Ja
n-1
4
Ap
r-14
Ju
l-14
Oct
-14
Ja
n-1
5
Ap
r-15
Sugar
CFTC non-commercial net positioning Price (RHS, USD/lb.)
1x stdv
-1x stdv
2x stdv
-2x stdv
5 Yr Average
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
-100
-80
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
80
Ap
r-10
Ju
l-10
Oct
-10
Ja
n-1
1
Ap
r-11
Ju
l-11
Oct
-11
Ja
n-1
2
Ap
r-12
Ju
l-12
Oct
-12
Ja
n-1
3
Ap
r-13
Ju
l-13
Oct
-13
Ja
n-1
4
Ap
r-14
Ju
l-14
Oct
-14
Ja
n-1
5
Ap
r-15
Wheat
CFTC non-commercial net positioning Price (RHS, USD/bu.)
1x stdv
-1x stdv
2x stdv
-2x stdv
5 Yr Average
Energy
Source: Bloomberg, ETF Securities Source: Bloomberg, ETF Securities
Source: Bloomberg, ETF Securities Source: Bloomberg, ETF Securities
Source: Bloomberg, ETF Securities
Note: standard deviation based on 5 year average CFTC non-commercial net positioning 6All commodity futures price data is denominated in USD unless otherwise indicated. *Brent average of net positions from January 2011 as positions were not reported by CFTC before then
1.5
1.7
1.9
2.1
2.3
2.5
2.7
2.9
3.1
3.3
3.5
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
Ap
r-10
Ju
l-10
Oct
-10
Ja
n-1
1
Ap
r-11
Ju
l-11
Oct
-11
Ja
n-1
2
Ap
r-12
Ju
l-12
Oct
-12
Ja
n-1
3
Ap
r-13
Ju
l-13
Oct
-13
Ja
n-1
4
Ap
r-14
Ju
l-14
Oct
-14
Ja
n-1
5
Ap
r-15
Heating Oil
CFTC non-commercial net positioning Price (RHS, USD/gal.)
1x stdv
-1x stdv
2x stdv
-2x stdv
5 Yr Average
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
5.0
5.5
6.0
-250
-200
-150
-100
-50
0
Ap
r-10
Ju
l-10
Oct
-10
Ja
n-1
1
Ap
r-11
Ju
l-11
Oct
-11
Ja
n-1
2
Ap
r-12
Ju
l-12
Oct
-12
Ja
n-1
3
Ap
r-13
Ju
l-13
Oct
-13
Ja
n-1
4
Ap
r-14
Ju
l-14
Oct
-14
Ja
n-1
5
Ap
r-15
Natural Gas
CFTC non-commercial net positioning Price (RHS, USD/MMBtu)
1x stdv
-1x stdv
2x stdv
-2x stdv
5 Yr Average
1.1
1.6
2.1
2.6
3.1
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Ap
r-10
Ju
l-10
Oct
-10
Ja
n-1
1
Ap
r-11
Ju
l-11
Oct
-11
Ja
n-1
2
Ap
r-12
Ju
l-12
Oct
-12
Ja
n-1
3
Ap
r-13
Ju
l-13
Oct
-13
Ja
n-1
4
Ap
r-14
Ju
l-14
Oct
-14
Ja
n-1
5
Ap
r-15
Gasoline
CFTC non-commercial net positioning Price (RHS, USD/gal.)
1x stdv
-1x stdv
2x stdv
-2x stdv
5 Yr Average
45
55
65
75
85
95
105
115
125
-50
0
50
100
150
200
Ja
n-1
1
Ap
r-11
Ju
l-11
Oct
-11
Ja
n-1
2
Ap
r-12
Ju
l-12
Oct
-12
Ja
n-1
3
Ap
r-13
Ju
l-13
Oct
-13
Ja
n-1
4
Ap
r-14
Ju
l-14
Oct
-14
Ja
n-1
5
Ap
r-15
Brent Oil
CFTC non-commercial net positioning Price (RHS, USD/bbl.)
1x stdv
-1x stdv
2x stdv
-2x stdv
Average*
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
Ap
r-10
Ju
l-10
Oct
-10
Ja
n-1
1
Ap
r-11
Ju
l-11
Oct
-11
Ja
n-1
2
Ap
r-12
Ju
l-12
Oct
-12
Ja
n-1
3
Ap
r-13
Ju
l-13
Oct
-13
Ja
n-1
4
Ap
r-14
Ju
l-14
Oct
-14
Ja
n-1
5
Ap
r-15
WTI Oil
CFTC non-commercial net positioning Price (RHS, USD/bbl.)
1x stdv
-1x stdv
2x stdv
-2x stdv
5 Yr Average
-50
-40
-30
-20
-10
10
20
30
40
Copper (COMEX)
Industrial Metals
Source: Bloomberg, ETF Securities Source: Bloomberg, ETF Securities
Source: Bloomberg, ETF Securities Source: Bloomberg, ETF Securities
Source: Bloomberg, ETF Securities Source: Bloomberg, ETF Securities
Note: standard deviation based on 5 year average CFTC non-commercial net positioning. LME non-commercial net positions averaged from 28th
July 14 and respective graphs represent daily data. 7All commodity futures price data is denominated in USD unless otherwise indicated.
1,650
1,700
1,750
1,800
1,850
1,900
150
160
170
180
190
200
210
220
230
Dec
-14
Ja
n-1
5
Ja
n-1
5
Ja
n-1
5
Ja
n-1
5
Ja
n-1
5
Feb
-15
Feb
-15
Feb
-15
Feb
-15
Ma
r-15
Ma
r-15
Ma
r-15
Ma
r-15
Ap
r-15
Ap
r-15
Aluminum
LME non-commercial net positioning Price (RHS, USD/MT)
1x stdv
-1x stdv
2x stdv
-2x stdv
Series average
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
5.0
-50
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
Ap
r-10
Ju
l-10
Oct
-10
Ja
n-1
1
Ap
r-11
Ju
l-11
Oct
-11
Ja
n-1
2
Ap
r-12
Ju
l-12
Oct
-12
Ja
n-1
3
Ap
r-13
Ju
l-13
Oct
-13
Ja
n-1
4
Ap
r-14
Ju
l-14
Oct
-14
Ja
n-1
5
Ap
r-15
Copper (COMEX)
CFTC non-commercial net positioning Price (RHS, USD/lb.)
1x stdv
-1x stdv
2x stdv
-2x stdv
5 Yr Average
12,000
12,500
13,000
13,500
14,000
14,500
15,000
15,500
16,000
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
Dec
-14
Ja
n-1
5
Ja
n-1
5
Ja
n-1
5
Ja
n-1
5
Ja
n-1
5
Feb
-15
Feb
-15
Feb
-15
Feb
-15
Ma
r-15
Ma
r-15
Ma
r-15
Ma
r-15
Ap
r-15
Ap
r-15
Nickel
LME non-commercial net positioning Price (RHS, USD/MT)
1x stdv
-1x stdv
2x stdv
-2x stdv
Series average
1,950
2,000
2,050
2,100
2,150
2,200
2,250
40
45
50
55
60
65
70
75
80
85
90
Dec
-14
Ja
n-1
5
Ja
n-1
5
Ja
n-1
5
Ja
n-1
5
Ja
n-1
5
Feb
-15
Feb
-15
Feb
-15
Feb
-15
Ma
r-15
Ma
r-15
Ma
r-15
Ma
r-15
Ap
r-15
Ap
r-15
Zinc
LME non-commercial net positioning Price (RHS, USD/MT)
1x stdv
-1x stdv
2x stdv
-2x stdv
Series average
1,600
1,650
1,700
1,750
1,800
1,850
1,900
1,950
2,000
2,050
7
9
11
13
15
17
19
21
23
25
Dec
-14
Ja
n-1
5
Ja
n-1
5
Ja
n-1
5
Ja
n-1
5
Ja
n-1
5
Feb
-15
Feb
-15
Feb
-15
Feb
-15
Ma
r-15
Ma
r-15
Ma
r-15
Ma
r-15
Ap
r-15
Ap
r-15
Lead
LME non-commercial net positioning Price (RHS, USD/MT)
1x stdv
-1x stdv
2x stdv
-2x stdv
Series average
16,000
16,500
17,000
17,500
18,000
18,500
19,000
19,500
20,000
20,500
1.7
1.9
2.1
2.3
2.5
2.7
2.9
3.1
3.3
Dec
-14
Ja
n-1
5
Ja
n-1
5
Ja
n-1
5
Ja
n-1
5
Ja
n-1
5
Feb
-15
Feb
-15
Feb
-15
Feb
-15
Ma
r-15
Ma
r-15
Ma
r-15
Ma
r-15
Ap
r-15
Ap
r-15
Tin
LME non-commercial net positioning Price (RHS, USD/MT)
1x stdv
-1x stdv
2x stdv
-2x stdv
Series average
Precious Metals
Source: Bloomberg, ETF Securities Source: Bloomberg, ETF Securities
Source: Bloomberg, ETF Securities Source: Bloomberg, ETF Securities
Livestock
Source: Bloomberg, ETF Securities Source: Bloomberg, ETF Securities
Source: Bloomberg, ETF Securities
Note: standard deviation based on 5 year average CFTC non-commercial net positioning 8All commodity futures price data is denominated in USD unless otherwise indicated.
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1.0
1.1
1.2
1.3
1.4
-20
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Ap
r-10
Ju
l-10
Oct
-10
Ja
n-1
1
Ap
r-11
Ju
l-11
Oct
-11
Ja
n-1
2
Ap
r-12
Ju
l-12
Oct
-12
Ja
n-1
3
Ap
r-13
Ju
l-13
Oct
-13
Ja
n-1
4
Ap
r-14
Ju
l-14
Oct
-14
Ja
n-1
5
Ap
r-15
Lean Hogs
CFTC non-commercial net positioning Price (RHS, USD/lb.)
1x stdv
-1x stdv
2x stdv
-2x stdv
5 Yr Average
0.7
0.9
1.1
1.3
1.5
1.7
1.9
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
Ap
r-10
Ju
l-10
Oct
-10
Ja
n-1
1
Ap
r-11
Ju
l-11
Oct
-11
Ja
n-1
2
Ap
r-12
Ju
l-12
Oct
-12
Ja
n-1
3
Ap
r-13
Ju
l-13
Oct
-13
Ja
n-1
4
Ap
r-14
Ju
l-14
Oct
-14
Ja
n-1
5
Ap
r-15
Live Cattle
CFTC non-commercial net positioning Price (RHS, USD/lb.)
1x stdv
-1x stdv
2x stdv
-2x stdv
5 Yr Average
0.8
1.0
1.2
1.4
1.6
1.8
2.0
2.2
2.4
2.6
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
Ap
r-10
Ju
l-10
Oct
-10
Ja
n-1
1
Ap
r-11
Ju
l-11
Oct
-11
Ja
n-1
2
Ap
r-12
Ju
l-12
Oct
-12
Ja
n-1
3
Ap
r-13
Ju
l-13
Oct
-13
Ja
n-1
4
Ap
r-14
Ju
l-14
Oct
-14
Ja
n-1
5
Ap
r-15
Feeder Cattle
CFTC non-commercial net positioning Price (RHS, USD/lb.)
1x stdv
-1x stdv
2x stdv
-2x stdv
5 Yr Average
0
7
14
21
28
35
42
49
-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
Ap
r-10
Ju
l-10
Oct
-10
Ja
n-1
1
Ap
r-11
Ju
l-11
Oct
-11
Ja
n-1
2
Ap
r-12
Ju
l-12
Oct
-12
Ja
n-1
3
Ap
r-13
Ju
l-13
Oct
-13
Ja
n-1
4
Ap
r-14
Ju
l-14
Oct
-14
Ja
n-1
5
Ap
r-15
Silver
CFTC non-commercial net positioning Price (RHS, USD/t oz.)
1x stdv
-1x stdv
2x stdv
-2x stdv
5 Yr Average
900
1,100
1,300
1,500
1,700
1,900
2,100
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
Ap
r-10
Ju
l-10
Oct
-10
Ja
n-1
1
Ap
r-11
Ju
l-11
Oct
-11
Ja
n-1
2
Ap
r-12
Ju
l-12
Oct
-12
Ja
n-1
3
Ap
r-13
Ju
l-13
Oct
-13
Ja
n-1
4
Ap
r-14
Ju
l-14
Oct
-14
Ja
n-1
5
Ap
r-15
Gold
CFTC non-commercial net positioning Price (RHS, USD/t oz.)
1x stdv
-1x stdv
2x stdv
-2x stdv
5 Yr Average
250
350
450
550
650
750
850
950
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
Ap
r-10
Ju
l-10
Oct
-10
Ja
n-1
1
Ap
r-11
Ju
l-11
Oct
-11
Ja
n-1
2
Ap
r-12
Ju
l-12
Oct
-12
Ja
n-1
3
Ap
r-13
Ju
l-13
Oct
-13
Ja
n-1
4
Ap
r-14
Ju
l-14
Oct
-14
Ja
n-1
5
Ap
r-15
Palladium
CFTC non-commercial net positioning Price (RHS, USD/t oz.)
1x stdv
-1x stdv
2x stdv
-2x stdv
5 Yr Average
1,000
1,100
1,200
1,300
1,400
1,500
1,600
1,700
1,800
1,900
2,000
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
Ap
r-10
Ju
l-10
Oct
-10
Ja
n-1
1
Ap
r-11
Ju
l-11
Oct
-11
Ja
n-1
2
Ap
r-12
Ju
l-12
Oct
-12
Ja
n-1
3
Ap
r-13
Ju
l-13
Oct
-13
Ja
n-1
4
Ap
r-14
Ju
l-14
Oct
-14
Ja
n-1
5
Ap
r-15
Platinum
CFTC non-commercial net positioning Price (RHS, USD/t oz.)
1x stdv
-1x stdv
2x stdv
-2x stdv
5 Yr Average
16,000
18,000
19,000
20,000
20,500
Agriculture
Source: USDA, Bloomberg, ETF Securities Source: USDA, Bloomberg, ETF Securities
Source: USDA, Bloomberg, ETF Securities Source: USDA, Bloomberg, ETF Securities
Source: USDA, Bloomberg, ETF Securities Source: USDA, Bloomberg, ETF Securities
Source: USDA, Bloomberg, ETF Securities Source: USDA, Bloomberg, ETF Securities
Note: stock to use data is annual with monthly update of 2012/2013 estimates 9
Inventories
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
80
/81
81/
82
82
/83
83
/84
84
/85
85
/86
86
/87
87
/88
88
/89
89
/90
90
/91
91/
92
92
/93
93
/94
94
/95
95
/96
96
/97
97
/98
98
/99
99
/00
00
/01
01/
02
02
/03
03
/04
04
/05
05
/06
06
/07
07
/08
08
/09
09
/10
10/1
111
/12
12/1
313
/14
14/1
5
Corn - Stock to Use Annual data in %, from 1980 to 2015
% chg in projections vs. previous = 1.9%
0
50
100
150
200
250
80
/81
81/
82
82
/83
83
/84
84
/85
85
/86
86
/87
87
/88
88
/89
89
/90
90
/91
91/
92
92
/93
93
/94
94
/95
95
/96
96
/97
97
/98
98
/99
99
/00
00
/01
01/
02
02
/03
03
/04
04
/05
05
/06
06
/07
07
/08
08
/09
09
/10
10/1
111
/12
12/1
313
/14
14/1
5Coffee - Stock to Use Annual data in %, from 1980 to 2015
% chg in projections vs. previous =
30.9%
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
80
/81
81/
82
82
/83
83
/84
84
/85
85
/86
86
/87
87
/88
88
/89
89
/90
90
/91
91/
92
92
/93
93
/94
94
/95
95
/96
96
/97
97
/98
98
/99
99
/00
00
/01
01/
02
02
/03
03
/04
04
/05
05
/06
06
/07
07
/08
08
/09
09
/10
10/1
111
/12
12/1
313
/14
14/1
5
Cotton - Stock to Use Annual data in %, from 1980 to 2015 % chg in projections
vs. previous = 0.0%
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
80
/81
81/
82
82
/83
83
/84
84
/85
85
/86
86
/87
87
/88
88
/89
89
/90
90
/91
91/
92
92
/93
93
/94
94
/95
95
/96
96
/97
97
/98
98
/99
99
/00
00
/01
01/
02
02
/03
03
/04
04
/05
05
/06
06
/07
07
/08
08
/09
09
/10
10/1
111
/12
12/1
313
/14
14/1
5
Soybeans - Stock to Use Annual data in %, from 1980 to 2015
% chg in projections vs. previous = -0.1%
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
80
/81
81/
82
82
/83
83
/84
84
/85
85
/86
86
/87
87
/88
88
/89
89
/90
90
/91
91/
92
92
/93
93
/94
94
/95
95
/96
96
/97
97
/98
98
/99
99
/00
00
/01
01/
02
02
/03
03
/04
04
/05
05
/06
06
/07
07
/08
08
/09
09
/10
10/1
111
/12
12/1
313
/14
14/1
5
Soybeans - Ending Stocks Annual data in mln tons, from 1980 to 2015
chg in projections vs. previous = 0.0
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
80
…8
1/…
82
…8
3…
84
…8
5…
86
…8
7/…
88
…8
9…
90
…9
1/…
92
…9
3/…
94
…9
5/…
96
…9
7/…
98
…9
9…
00
…0
1/…
02
…0
3…
04
…0
5…
06
…0
7/…
08
…0
9…
10/1
111
/12
12/…
13/…
14/…
Coffee - Ending Stocks Annual data in mln bags (60 kg), from 1980 to 2015
chg in projections vs. previous = 9.6
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
80
/81
81/
82
82
/83
83
/84
84
/85
85
/86
86
/87
87
/88
88
/89
89
/90
90
/91
91/
92
92
/93
93
/94
94
/95
95
/96
96
/97
97
/98
98
/99
99
/00
00
/01
01/
02
02
/03
03
/04
04
/05
05
/06
06
/07
07
/08
08
/09
09
/10
10/1
111
/12
12/1
313
/14
14/1
5
Cotton - Ending Stocks Annual data in mln 480 lb Bales, from 1980 to 2015
chg in projections vs. previous = 0.0
0
50
100
150
200
250
80
/81
81/
82
82
/83
83
/84
84
/85
85
/86
86
/87
87
/88
88
/89
89
/90
90
/91
91/
92
92
/93
93
/94
94
/95
95
/96
96
/97
97
/98
98
/99
99
/00
00
/01
01/
02
02
/03
03
/04
04
/05
05
/06
06
/07
07
/08
08
/09
09
/10
10/1
111
/12
12/1
313
/14
14/1
5
Corn - Ending Stocks Annual data in mln tons, from 1980 to 2015
chg in projections vs. previous = 3.2
Source: USDA, Bloomberg, ETF Securities Source: USDA, Bloomberg, ETF Securities
Source: USDA, Bloomberg, ETF Securities Source: USDA, Bloomberg, ETF Securities
Source: USDA, Bloomberg, ETF Securities Source: USDA, Bloomberg, ETF Securities
Source: International Cocoa Organisation, Bloomberg, ETF Securities
Note: stock to use data is annual with monthly update of 2012/2013 estimates 10
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
80
/81
81/
82
82
/83
83
/84
84
/85
85
/86
86
/87
87
/88
88
/89
89
/90
90
/91
91/
92
92
/93
93
/94
94
/95
95
/96
96
/97
97
/98
98
/99
99
/00
00
/01
01/
02
02
/03
03
/04
04
/05
05
/06
06
/07
07
/08
08
/09
09
/10
10/1
111
/12
12/1
313
/14
14/1
5
Wheat - Stock to Use Annual data in %, from 1980 to 2015
% chg in projections vs. previous = -0.4%
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
94
/…
95
/…
96
/…
97
/…
98
/…
99
/…
00
/…
01/
…
02
/…
03
/…
04
/…
05
/…
06
/…
07
/…
08
/…
09
/…
10/1
1
11/1
2
12/1
3
13/1
4
14/1
5Sugar - Stock to Use Annual data in %, from 1998 to 2015
% chg in projections vs. previous = 6%
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
80
/…8
1/8
28
2/…
83
/…8
4/…
85
/…8
6/…
87
/…8
8/…
89
/…9
0/9
19
1/9
29
2/…
93
/…9
4/…
95
/…9
6/9
79
7/…
98
/…9
9/…
00
/…0
1/0
20
2/…
03
/…0
4/…
05
/…0
6/…
07
/…0
8/…
09
/10
10/1
111
/12
12/1
313
/14
14/1
5
Soybean Oil - Stock to Use Annual data in %, from 1980 to 2015
% chg in projections vs. previous = -
4.4%
0
50
100
150
200
250
80
/…8
1/…
82
/…8
3/…
84
/…8
5/…
86
/…8
7/…
88
/…8
9/…
90
/…9
1/…
92
/…9
3/…
94
/…9
5/…
96
/…9
7/…
98
/…9
9/…
00
/…0
1/…
02
/…0
3/…
04
/…0
5/…
06
/…0
7/…
08
/…0
9/…
10/1
111
/12
12/1
313
/14
14/1
5
Wheat - Ending Stocks Annual data in mln tons, from 1980 to 2015
chg in projections vs. previous = -0.5
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
80
/…8
1/…
82
/…8
3/…
84
/…8
5/…
86
/…8
7/…
88
/…8
9/…
90
/…9
1/…
92
/…9
3/…
94
/…9
5/…
96
/…9
7/…
98
/…9
9/…
00
/…0
1/…
02
/…0
3/…
04
/…0
5/…
06
/…0
7/…
08
/…0
9/…
10/1
111
/12
12/1
313
/14
14/1
5
Sugar - Ending Stocks Annual data in mln Metric Tons, from 1980 to 2015
chg in projections vs. previous = 1.1
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
80
/…8
1/…
82
/…8
3/…
84
/…8
5/…
86
/…8
7/…
88
/…8
9/…
90
/…9
1/…
92
/…9
3/…
94
/…9
5/…
96
/…9
7/…
98
/…9
9/…
00
/…0
1/…
02
/…0
3/…
04
/…0
5/…
06
/…0
7/…
08
/…0
9/…
10/1
111
/12
12/1
313
/14
14/1
5
Soybean Oil - Ending Stocks Annual data in mln Metric Tons, from 1980 to 2015
chg in projections vs. previous = -0.2
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
1,800
2,000
198
119
82
198
319
84
198
519
86
198
719
88
198
919
90
199
119
92
199
319
94
199
519
96
199
719
98
199
92
00
02
00
12
00
22
00
32
00
42
00
52
00
62
00
72
00
82
00
92
010
20
112
012
20
132
014
Cocoa - Inventory Annual data in '000 metric tons, from 1981 to 2015
Industrial Metals
Source: Bloomberg, ETF Securities Source: Bloomberg, ETF Securities
Source: LME, Bloomberg, ETF Securities Source: Bloomberg, ETF Securities
Source: Bloomberg, ETF Securities Source: LME, Bloomberg, ETF Securities
Livestock
Source: USDA, Bloomberg, ETF Securities Source: USDA, Bloomberg, ETF Securities
11
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
Ap
r-14
Ma
y-1
4
Ju
n-1
4
Ju
l-14
Au
g-1
4
Sep
-14
Oct
-14
No
v-1
4
Dec
-14
Ja
n-1
5
Feb
-15
Ma
r-15
Ap
r-15
Tin Inventory Daily data in '000 MT, from 15 Apr 14 to 15 Apr 15
150
170
190
210
230
250
270
290
310
Ap
r 14
Ma
y 1
4
Ju
n 1
4
Ju
l 14
Au
g 1
4
Sep
14
Oct
14
No
v 1
4
Dec
14
Ja
n 1
5
Feb
15
Ma
r 15
Ap
r 15
Lead Inventory
SHFE Inventory (in '000 tonnes) LME Inventory (in '000 tonnes)
Daily data, from 15 Apr 14 to 15 Apr 15
230
280
330
380
430
480
Ap
r-14
Ma
y-1
4
Ju
n-1
4
Ju
l-14
Au
g-1
4
Sep
-14
Oct
-14
No
v-1
4
Dec
-14
Ja
n-1
5
Feb
-15
Ma
r-15
Ap
r-15
Nickel Inventory Daily data in '000 MT, from 15 Apr 14 to 15 Apr 15
450
550
650
750
850
950
1,050
1,150
Ap
r 14
Ma
y 1
4
Ju
n 1
4
Ju
l 14
Au
g 1
4
Sep
14
Oct
14
No
v 1
4
Dec
14
Ja
n 1
5
Feb
15
Ma
r 15
Ap
r 15
Zinc Inventory
SHFE Inventory (in '000 tonnes) LME Inventory (in '000 tonnes)
Daily data, from 15 Apr 14 to 15 Apr 15
3,800
4,300
4,800
5,300
5,800
Ap
r 14
Ma
y 1
4
Ju
n 1
4
Ju
l 14
Au
g 1
4
Sep
14
Oct
14
No
v 1
4
Dec
14
Ja
n 1
5
Feb
15
Ma
r 15
Ap
r 15
Aluminum Inventory
SHFE Inventory (in '000 tonnes) LME Inventory (in '000 tonnes)
Daily data, from 15 Apr 14 to 15 Apr 15
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
Ap
r 14
Ma
y 1
4
Ju
n 1
4
Ju
l 14
Au
g 1
4
Sep
14
Oct
14
No
v 1
4
Dec
14
Ja
n 1
5
Feb
15
Ma
r 15
Ap
r 15
Copper Inventory
SHFE Inventory (in '000 tonnes) COMEX Inventory (in '000 tonnes)
LME Inventory (in '000 tonnes)
Daily data, from 15 Apr 14 to 15 Apr 15
640
660
680
700
720
740
760
780
800
820
840
80
/81
81/
82
82
/83
83
/84
84
/85
85
/86
86
/87
87
/88
88
/89
89
/90
90
/91
91/
92
92
/93
93
/94
94
/95
95
/96
96
/97
97
/98
98
/99
99
/00
00
/01
01/
02
02
/03
03
/04
04
/05
05
/06
06
/07
07
/08
08
/09
09
/10
10/1
111
/12
12/1
313
/14
14/1
5
Lean Hogs Inventory Annual data in mln Heads, from 1980 to 2015
900
950
1,000
1,050
1,100
1,150
80
/81
81/
82
82
/83
83
/84
84
/85
85
/86
86
/87
87
/88
88
/89
89
/90
90
/91
91/
92
92
/93
93
/94
94
/95
95
/96
96
/97
97
/98
98
/99
99
/00
00
/01
01/
02
02
/03
03
/04
04
/05
05
/06
06
/07
07
/08
08
/09
09
/10
10/1
111
/12
12/1
313
/14
14/1
5
Live Cattle Inventory Annual data in mln Heads, from 1980 to 2015
Energy
Source: DOE, Bloomberg, ETF Securities Source: DOE, Bloomberg, ETF Securities
Source: DOE, Bloomberg, ETF Securities Source: DOE, Bloomberg, ETF Securities
Source: DOE, Bloomberg, ETF Securities
Note: "Oil - OECD Inventory" represents OECD industry stocks and is reported with a 2 month lag. 12
300
320
340
360
380
400
420
440
460
480
500
1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 31 33 35 37 39 41 43 45 47 49 51
US Oil Inventory
5Yr Average +/-1 stdev 2014 2015
Weekly data in mln barrels, from Apr 10 to Apr 15
190
200
210
220
230
240
250
1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 31 33 35 37 39 41 43 45 47 49 51
Gasoline Inventory
5Yr Average +/-1 stdev 2014 2015
Weekly data in mln barrels, from Apr 10 to Apr 15
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
4,500
1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 31 33 35 37 39 41 43 45 47 49 51
Natural Gas Inventory
5Yr Average +/-1 stdev 2014 2015
Weekly data in billion cubic feet, from Apr 10 to Apr 15
6
11
16
21
26
31
36
41
46
1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 31 33 35 37 39 41 43 45 47 49 51
Heating Oil Inventory
5Yr Average +/-1 stdev 2014 2015
Weekly data in mln barrels, from Apr 10 to Apr 15
280
290
300
310
320
330
340
350
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
OECD Europe Oil Industry Inventory
5Yr Average +/-1 stdev 2014 2015
Monthly data in mln barrels, from Jan 05 to Jan 15
Agriculture
Source: Bloomberg, ETF Securities Source: Bloomberg, ETF Securities
Source: Bloomberg, ETF Securities Source: Bloomberg, ETF Securities
Source: Bloomberg, ETF Securities Source: Bloomberg, ETF Securities
Source: Bloomberg, ETF Securities Source: Bloomberg, ETF Securities
Note: all commodity futures trading volume and price data is denominated in USD unless otherwise indicated. 13
Commodities Front Month Futures and Trading Volumes
$2,000
$2,200
$2,400
$2,600
$2,800
$3,000
$3,200
$3,400
$3,600
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
Ap
r 14
Ma
y 1
4
Ju
n 1
4
Ju
l 14
Au
g 1
4
Sep
14
Oct
14
No
v 1
4
Dec
14
Ja
n 1
5
Feb
15
Ma
r 15
Ap
r 15
Cocoa Front Month Futures Price
Volume ($mn) Prices (RHS) 50 dma (RHS) 200 dma (RHS)
Daily data in USD/MT, from 15 Apr 14 to 15 Apr 15
$1.0
$1.2
$1.4
$1.6
$1.8
$2.0
$2.2
$2.4
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
4,500
Ap
r 14
Ma
y 1
4
Ju
n 1
4
Ju
l 14
Au
g 1
4
Sep
14
Oct
14
No
v 1
4
Dec
14
Ja
n 1
5
Feb
15
Ma
r 15
Ap
r 15
Coffee Front Month Futures Price
Volume ($mn) Prices (RHS) 50 dma (RHS) 200 dma (RHS)
Daily data in USD/lb., from 15 Apr 14 to 15 Apr 15
$3.0
$3.5
$4.0
$4.5
$5.0
$5.5
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
Ap
r 14
Ma
y 1
4
Ju
n 1
4
Ju
l 14
Au
g 1
4
Sep
14
Oct
14
No
v 1
4
Dec
14
Ja
n 1
5
Feb
15
Ma
r 15
Ap
r 15
Corn Front Month Futures Price
Volume ($mn) Prices (RHS) 50 dma (RHS) 200 dma (RHS)
Daily data in USD/bu., from 15 Apr 14 to 15 Apr 15
$0.55
$0.60
$0.65
$0.70
$0.75
$0.80
$0.85
$0.90
$0.95
$1.00
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
Ap
r 14
Ma
y 1
4
Ju
n 1
4
Ju
l 14
Au
g 1
4
Sep
14
Oct
14
No
v 1
4
Dec
14
Ja
n 1
5
Feb
15
Ma
r 15
Ap
r 15
Cotton Front Month Futures Price
Volume ($mn) Prices (RHS) 50 dma (RHS) 200 dma (RHS)
Daily data in USD/lb., from 15 Apr 14 to 15 Apr 15
$0.28
$0.30
$0.32
$0.34
$0.36
$0.38
$0.40
$0.42
$0.44
$0.46
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
Ap
r 14
Ma
y 1
4
Ju
n 1
4
Ju
l 14
Au
g 1
4
Sep
14
Oct
14
No
v 1
4
Dec
14
Ja
n 1
5
Feb
15
Ma
r 15
Ap
r 15
Soybean Oil Front Month Futures Price
Volume ($mn) Prices (RHS) 50 dma (RHS) 200 dma (RHS)
Daily data in USD/lb., from 15 Apr 14 to 15 Apr 15
$9
$10
$11
$12
$13
$14
$15
$16
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
Ap
r 14
Ma
y 1
4
Ju
n 1
4
Ju
l 14
Au
g 1
4
Sep
14
Oct
14
No
v 1
4
Dec
14
Ja
n 1
5
Feb
15
Ma
r 15
Ap
r 15
Soybeans Front Month Futures Price
Volume ($mn) Prices (RHS) 50 dma (RHS) 200 dma (RHS)
Daily data in USD/bu., from 15 Apr 14 to 15 Apr 15
$0.10
$0.11
$0.12
$0.13
$0.14
$0.15
$0.16
$0.17
$0.18
$0.19
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
Ap
r 14
Ma
y 1
4
Ju
n 1
4
Ju
l 14
Au
g 1
4
Sep
14
Oct
14
No
v 1
4
Dec
14
Ja
n 1
5
Feb
15
Ma
r 15
Ap
r 15
Sugar Front Month Futures Price
Volume ($mn) Prices (RHS) 50 dma (RHS) 200 dma (RHS)
Daily data in USD/lb., from 15 Apr 14 to 15 Apr 15
$4.5
$5.0
$5.5
$6.0
$6.5
$7.0
$7.5
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
9,000
Ap
r 14
Ma
y 1
4
Ju
n 1
4
Ju
l 14
Au
g 1
4
Sep
14
Oct
14
No
v 1
4
Dec
14
Ja
n 1
5
Feb
15
Ma
r 15
Ap
r 15
Wheat Front Month Futures Price
Volume ($mn) Prices (RHS) 50 dma (RHS) 200 dma (RHS)
Daily data in USD/bu., from 15 Apr 14 to 15 Apr 15
Energy
Source: Bloomberg, ETF Securities Source: Bloomberg, ETF Securities
Source: Bloomberg, ETF Securities Source: Bloomberg, ETF Securities
Source: Bloomberg, ETF Securities
Carbon
Source: Bloomberg, ETF Securities
Note: all commodity futures trading volume and price data is denominated in USD unless otherwise indicated. 14
$45
$55
$65
$75
$85
$95
$105
$115
$125
$0
$20,000
$40,000
$60,000
$80,000
$100,000
$120,000
$140,000
$160,000
$180,000
Ap
r 14
Ma
y 1
4
Ju
n 1
4
Ju
l 14
Au
g 1
4
Sep
14
Oct
14
No
v 1
4
Dec
14
Ja
n 1
5
Feb
15
Ma
r 15
Ap
r 15
Brent Oil Front Month Futures Price
Volume ($mn) Prices (RHS) 50 dma (RHS) 200 dma (RHS)
Daily data in USD/bbl., from 15 Apr 14 to 15 Apr 15
$40
$50
$60
$70
$80
$90
$100
$110
$120
$0
$20,000
$40,000
$60,000
$80,000
$100,000
$120,000
$140,000
Ap
r 14
Ma
y 1
4
Ju
n 1
4
Ju
l 14
Au
g 1
4
Sep
14
Oct
14
No
v 1
4
Dec
14
Ja
n 1
5
Feb
15
Ma
r 15
Ap
r 15
WTI Oil Front Month Futures Price
Volume ($mn) Prices (RHS) 50 dma (RHS) 200 dma (RHS)
Daily data in USD/bbl., from 15 Apr 14 to 15 Apr 15
$2.0
$2.5
$3.0
$3.5
$4.0
$4.5
$5.0
$0
$5,000
$10,000
$15,000
$20,000
$25,000
$30,000
$35,000
Ap
r 14
Ma
y 1
4
Ju
n 1
4
Ju
l 14
Au
g 1
4
Sep
14
Oct
14
No
v 1
4
Dec
14
Ja
n 1
5
Feb
15
Ma
r 15
Ap
r 15
Natural Gas Front Month Futures Price
Volume ($mn) Prices (RHS) 50 dma (RHS) 200 dma (RHS)
Daily data in USD/MMBtu, from 15 Apr 14 to 15 Apr 15
$1.2
$1.7
$2.2
$2.7
$3.2
$3.7
$0
$5,000
$10,000
$15,000
$20,000
$25,000
$30,000
$35,000
Ap
r 14
Ma
y 1
4
Ju
n 1
4
Ju
l 14
Au
g 1
4
Sep
14
Oct
14
No
v 1
4
Dec
14
Ja
n 1
5
Feb
15
Ma
r 15
Ap
r 15
Gasoline Front Month Futures Price
Volume ($mn) Prices (RHS) 50 dma (RHS) 200 dma (RHS)
Daily data in USD/gal., from 15 Apr 14 to 15 Apr 15
$1.1
$1.6
$2.1
$2.6
$3.1
$3.6
$0
$5,000
$10,000
$15,000
$20,000
$25,000
$30,000
Ap
r 14
Ma
y 1
4
Ju
n 1
4
Ju
l 14
Au
g 1
4
Sep
14
Oct
14
No
v 1
4
Dec
14
Ja
n 1
5
Feb
15
Ma
r 15
Ap
r 15
Heating Oil Front Month Futures Price
Volume ($mn) Prices (RHS) 50 dma (RHS) 200 dma (RHS)
Daily data in USD/gal., from 15 Apr 14 to 15 Apr 15
4.0 €
4.5 €
5.0 €
5.5 €
6.0 €
6.5 €
7.0 €
7.5 €
8.0 €
€0
€100
€200
€300
€400
€500
€600
€700
Ap
r 14
Ma
y 1
4
Ju
n 1
4
Ju
l 14
Au
g 1
4
Sep
14
Oct
14
No
v 1
4
Dec
14
Ja
n 1
5
Feb
15
Ma
r 15
Ap
r 15
Carbon Front Month Futures Price
Volume ($mn) Prices (RHS) 50 dma (RHS) 200 dma (RHS)
Daily data in EUR/MT, from 15 Apr 14 to 15 Apr 15
Industrial Metals
Source: Bloomberg, ETF Securities Source: Bloomberg, ETF Securities
Source: Bloomberg, ETF Securities Source: Bloomberg, ETF Securities
Source: Bloomberg, ETF Securities Source: Bloomberg, ETF Securities
Source: Bloomberg, ETF Securities
Note: all commodity futures trading volume and price data is denominated in USD unless otherwise indicated. 15
$1,600
$1,700
$1,800
$1,900
$2,000
$2,100
$2,200
$0
$5,000
$10,000
$15,000
$20,000
$25,000
$30,000
$35,000
Ap
r 14
Ma
y 1
4
Ju
n 1
4
Ju
l 14
Au
g 1
4
Sep
14
Oct
14
No
v 1
4
Dec
14
Ja
n 1
5
Feb
15
Ma
r 15
Ap
r 15
Aluminum Front Month Futures Price
Volume ($mn) Prices (RHS) 50 dma (RHS) 200 dma (RHS)
Daily data in USD/MT, from 15 Apr 14 to 15 Apr 15
$15,500
$16,500
$17,500
$18,500
$19,500
$20,500
$21,500
$22,500
$23,500
$24,500
$0
$200
$400
$600
$800
$1,000
$1,200
$1,400
Ap
r 14
Ma
y 1
4
Ju
n 1
4
Ju
l 14
Au
g 1
4
Sep
14
Oct
14
No
v 1
4
Dec
14
Ja
n 1
5
Feb
15
Ma
r 15
Ap
r 15
Tin Front Month Futures Price
Volume ($mn) Prices (RHS) 50 dma (RHS) 200 dma (RHS)
Daily data in USD/MT, from 15 Apr 14 to 15 Apr 15
$1,700
$1,800
$1,900
$2,000
$2,100
$2,200
$2,300
$2,400
$2,500
$0$1,000$2,000$3,000$4,000$5,000$6,000$7,000$8,000$9,000
$10,000
Ap
r 14
Ma
y 1
4
Ju
n 1
4
Ju
l 14
Au
g 1
4
Sep
14
Oct
14
No
v 1
4
Dec
14
Ja
n 1
5
Feb
15
Ma
r 15
Ap
r 15
Zinc Front Month Futures Price
Volume ($mn) Prices (RHS) 50 dma (RHS) 200 dma (RHS)
Daily data in USD/MT, from 15 Apr 14 to 15 Apr 15
$11,000
$13,000
$15,000
$17,000
$19,000
$21,000
$23,000
$0$1,000$2,000$3,000$4,000$5,000$6,000$7,000$8,000$9,000
$10,000
Ap
r 14
Ma
y 1
4
Ju
n 1
4
Ju
l 14
Au
g 1
4
Sep
14
Oct
14
No
v 1
4
Dec
14
Ja
n 1
5
Feb
15
Ma
r 15
Ap
r 15
Nickel Front Month Futures Price
Volume ($mn) Prices (RHS) 50 dma (RHS) 200 dma (RHS)
Daily data in USD/MT, from 15 Apr 14 to 15 Apr 15
$2.4
$2.5
$2.6
$2.7
$2.8
$2.9
$3.0
$3.1
$3.2
$3.3
$3.4
$0
$1,000
$2,000
$3,000
$4,000
$5,000
$6,000
$7,000
$8,000
$9,000
$10,000
Ap
r 14
Ma
y 1
4
Ju
n 1
4
Ju
l 14
Au
g 1
4
Sep
14
Oct
14
No
v 1
4
Dec
14
Ja
n 1
5
Feb
15
Ma
r 15
Ap
r 15
Copper (COMEX) Front Month Futures Price
Volume ($mn) Prices (RHS) 50 dma (RHS) 200 dma (RHS)
Daily data in USD/lb., from 15 Apr 14 to 15 Apr 15
$1,500
$1,600
$1,700
$1,800
$1,900
$2,000
$2,100
$2,200
$2,300
$2,400
$0
$500
$1,000
$1,500
$2,000
$2,500
$3,000
$3,500
Ap
r 14
Ma
y 1
4
Ju
n 1
4
Ju
l 14
Au
g 1
4
Sep
14
Oct
14
No
v 1
4
Dec
14
Ja
n 1
5
Feb
15
Ma
r 15
Ap
r 15
Lead Front Month Futures Price
Volume ($mn) Prices (RHS) 50 dma (RHS) 200 dma (RHS)
Daily data in USD/MT, from 15 Apr 14 to 15 Apr 15
$5,400$5,600$5,800$6,000$6,200$6,400$6,600$6,800$7,000$7,200$7,400
$0
$5,000
$10,000
$15,000
$20,000
$25,000
$30,000
$35,000
Ap
r 14
Ma
y 1
4
Ju
n 1
4
Ju
l 14
Au
g 1
4
Sep
14
Oct
14
No
v 1
4
Dec
14
Ja
n 1
5
Feb
15
Ma
r 15
Ap
r 15
Copper (LME) Front Month Futures Price
Volume ($mn) 200 dma (RHS) 50 dma (RHS) Prices (RHS)
Daily data in USD/MT, from 15 Apr 14 to 15 Apr 15
Precious Metals
Source: Bloomberg, ETF Securities Source: Bloomberg, ETF Securities
Source: Bloomberg, ETF Securities Source: Bloomberg, ETF Securities
Livestock
Source: Bloomberg, ETF Securities Source: Bloomberg, ETF Securities
Source: Bloomberg, ETF Securities
Note: all commodity futures trading volume and price data is denominated in USD unless otherwise indicated. 16
$1.30
$1.50
$1.70
$1.90
$2.10
$2.30
$2.50
$0
$500
$1,000
$1,500
$2,000
$2,500
$3,000
$3,500
Ap
r 14
Ma
y 1
4
Ju
n 1
4
Ju
l 14
Au
g 1
4
Sep
14
Oct
14
No
v 1
4
Dec
14
Ja
n 1
5
Feb
15
Ma
r 15
Ap
r 15
Feeder Cattle Front Month Futures Price
Volume ($mn) Prices (RHS) 50 dma (RHS) 200 dma (RHS)
Daily data in USD/lb., from 15 Apr 14 to 15 Apr 15
$0.50
$0.60
$0.70
$0.80
$0.90
$1.00
$1.10
$1.20
$1.30
$1.40
$0
$500
$1,000
$1,500
$2,000
$2,500
$3,000
$3,500
$4,000
$4,500
Ap
r 14
Ma
y 1
4
Ju
n 1
4
Ju
l 14
Au
g 1
4
Sep
14
Oct
14
No
v 1
4
Dec
14
Ja
n 1
5
Feb
15
Ma
r 15
Ap
r 15
Lean Hogs Front Month Futures Price
Volume ($mn) Prices (RHS) 50 dma (RHS) 200 dma (RHS)
Daily data in USD/lb., from 15 Apr 14 to 15 Apr 15
$1.15
$1.25
$1.35
$1.45
$1.55
$1.65
$1.75
$0
$1,000
$2,000
$3,000
$4,000
$5,000
$6,000
$7,000
$8,000
$9,000
Ap
r 14
Ma
y 1
4
Ju
n 1
4
Ju
l 14
Au
g 1
4
Sep
14
Oct
14
No
v 1
4
Dec
14
Ja
n 1
5
Feb
15
Ma
r 15
Ap
r 15
Live Cattle Front Month Futures Price
Volume ($mn) Prices (RHS) 50 dma (RHS) 200 dma (RHS)
Daily data in USD/lb., from 15 Apr 14 to 15 Apr 15
$1,050
$1,100
$1,150
$1,200
$1,250
$1,300
$1,350
$1,400
$1,450
$1,500
$1,550
$0
$500
$1,000
$1,500
$2,000
$2,500
$3,000
Ap
r 14
Ma
y 1
4
Ju
n 1
4
Ju
l 14
Au
g 1
4
Sep
14
Oct
14
No
v 1
4
Dec
14
Ja
n 1
5
Feb
15
Ma
r 15
Ap
r 15
Platinum Front Month Futures Price
Volume ($mn) Prices (RHS) 50 dma (RHS) 200 dma (RHS)
Daily data in USD/t oz., from 15 Apr 14 to 15 Apr 15
$600
$650
$700
$750
$800
$850
$900
$950
$0
$500
$1,000
$1,500
$2,000
$2,500
Ap
r 14
Ma
y 1
4
Ju
n 1
4
Ju
l 14
Au
g 1
4
Sep
14
Oct
14
No
v 1
4
Dec
14
Ja
n 1
5
Feb
15
Ma
r 15
Ap
r 15
Palladium Front Month Futures Price
Volume ($mn) Prices (RHS) 50 dma (RHS) 200 dma (RHS)
Daily data in USD/t oz., from 15 Apr 14 to 15 Apr 15
$1,100
$1,150
$1,200
$1,250
$1,300
$1,350
$1,400
$0
$5,000
$10,000
$15,000
$20,000
$25,000
$30,000
$35,000
$40,000
$45,000
$50,000
Ap
r 14
Ma
y 1
4
Ju
n 1
4
Ju
l 14
Au
g 1
4
Sep
14
Oct
14
No
v 1
4
Dec
14
Ja
n 1
5
Feb
15
Ma
r 15
Ap
r 15
Gold Front Month Futures Price
Volume ($mn) Prices (RHS) 50 dma (RHS) 200 dma (RHS)
Daily data in USD/t oz., from 15 Apr 14 to 15 Apr 15
$13
$14
$15
$16
$17
$18
$19
$20
$21
$22
$0
$2,000
$4,000
$6,000
$8,000
$10,000
$12,000
$14,000
Ap
r 14
Ma
y 1
4
Ju
n 1
4
Ju
l 14
Au
g 1
4
Sep
14
Oct
14
No
v 1
4
Dec
14
Ja
n 1
5
Feb
15
Ma
r 15
Ap
r 15
Silver Front Month Futures Price
Volume ($mn) Prices (RHS) 50 dma (RHS) 200 dma (RHS)
Daily data in USD/t oz., from 15 Apr 14 to 15 Apr 15
Agriculture
Source: Bloomberg, ETF Securities Source: Bloomberg, ETF Securities
Source: Bloomberg, ETF Securities Source: Bloomberg, ETF Securities
Source: Bloomberg, ETF Securities Source: Bloomberg, ETF Securities
Source: Bloomberg, ETF Securities Source: Bloomberg, ETF Securities
Note: all commodity futures price data is denominated in USD unless otherwise indicated. 17
Futures Curves
$2,600
$2,650
$2,700
$2,750
$2,800
$2,850
$2,900
$2,950
$3,000
M1 M2 M3 M4 M5 M6 M7 M8 M9 M10Maturity (Month)
Cocoa Futures
15 Apr 15 08 Apr 15 16 Mar 15 15 Jan 15
USD/MT
$1.25
$1.35
$1.45
$1.55
$1.65
$1.75
$1.85
$1.95
M1
M2
M3
M4
M5
M6
M7
M8
M9
M10
M11
M12
M13
M14
M15
Maturity (Month)
Coffee Futures
15 Apr 15 08 Apr 15 16 Mar 15 15 Jan 15
USD/lb.
$3.5
$3.7
$3.9
$4.1
$4.3
$4.5
M1
M2
M3
M4
M5
M6
M7
M8
M9
M10
M11
M12
M13
Maturity (Month)
Corn Futures
15 Apr 15 08 Apr 15 16 Mar 15 15 Jan 15
USD/bu.
$0.59
$0.60
$0.61
$0.62
$0.63
$0.64
$0.65
$0.66
$0.67
$0.68
M1
M2
M3
M4
M5
M6
M7
M8
M9
M10
M11
M12
M13
M14
Maturity (Month)
Cotton Futures
15 Apr 15 08 Apr 15 16 Mar 15 15 Jan 15
USD/lb.
$0.30
$0.31
$0.31
$0.32
$0.32
$0.33
$0.33
$0.34
$0.34
M1
M2
M3
M4
M5
M6
M7
M8
M9
M10
M11
M12
M13
M14
Maturity (Month)
Soybean Oil Futures
15 Apr 15 08 Apr 15 16 Mar 15 15 Jan 15
USD/lb.
$9
$9
$9
$10
$10
$10
$10
M1
M2
M3
M4
M5
M6
M7
M8
M9
M10
M11
M12
M13
M14
M15
M16
M17
Maturity (Month)
Soybeans Futures
15 Apr 15 08 Apr 15 16 Mar 15 15 Jan 15
USD/bu.
$0.120
$0.130
$0.140
$0.150
$0.160
$0.170
$0.180
M1
M2
M3
M4
M5
M6
M7
M8
M9
M10
M11
Maturity (Month)
Sugar Futures
15 Apr 15 08 Apr 15 16 Mar 15 15 Jan 15
USD/lb.
$4.7
$4.9
$5.1
$5.3
$5.5
$5.7
$5.9
$6.1
M1
M2
M3
M4
M5
M6
M7
M8
M9
M10
M11
M12
M13
Maturity (Month)
Wheat Futures
15 Apr 15 08 Apr 15 16 Mar 15 15 Jan 15
USD/bu.
Energy
Source: Bloomberg, ETF Securities Source: Bloomberg, ETF Securities
Source: Bloomberg, ETF Securities Source: Bloomberg, ETF Securities
Source: Bloomberg, ETF Securities
Carbon
Source: Bloomberg, ETF Securities
Note: all commodity futures price data is denominated in USD unless otherwise indicated. 18
$45
$50
$55
$60
$65
$70
$75
M1
M3
M5
M7
M9
M11
M13
M15
M17
M19
M2
1
M2
3
M2
5
M2
7
M2
9
M3
1
M3
3
M3
5
Maturity (Month)
Brent Oil Futures
15 Apr 15 08 Apr 15 16 Mar 15 15 Jan 15
USD/bbl.
$40
$45
$50
$55
$60
$65
$70
M1
M3
M5
M7
M9
M11
M13
M15
M17
M19
M2
1
M2
3
M2
5
M2
7
M2
9
M3
1
M3
3
M3
5
Maturity (Month)
WTI Oil Futures
15 Apr 15 08 Apr 15 16 Mar 15 15 Jan 15
USD/bbl.
$2.5
$2.7
$2.9
$3.1
$3.3
$3.5
$3.7
$3.9
$4.1
$4.3
$4.5
M1
M3
M5
M7
M9
M11
M13
M15
M17
M19
M2
1
M2
3
M2
5
M2
7
M2
9
M3
1
M3
3
M3
5
Maturity (Month)
Natural Gas Futures
15 Apr 15 08 Apr 15 16 Mar 15 15 Jan 15
USD/MMBtu
$1.2
$1.3
$1.4
$1.5
$1.6
$1.7
$1.8
$1.9
$2.0
$2.1
M1
M3
M5
M7
M9
M11
M13
M15
M17
M19
M2
1
M2
3
M2
5
M2
7
M2
9
M3
1
M3
3
M3
5
Maturity (Month)
Gasoline Futures
15 Apr 15 08 Apr 15 16 Mar 15 15 Jan 15
USD/gal.
$1.40
$1.50
$1.60
$1.70
$1.80
$1.90
$2.00
$2.10
$2.20
M1
M3
M5
M7
M9
M11
M13
M15
M17
M19
M2
1
M2
3
M2
5
M2
7
M2
9
M3
1
M3
3
M3
5
Maturity (Month)
Heating Oil Futures
15 Apr 15 08 Apr 15 16 Mar 15 15 Jan 15
USD/gal.
6.4 €
6.6 €
6.8 €
7.0 €
7.2 €
7.4 €
7.6 €
M1
M2
M3
M4
M5
M6
M7
M8
M9
M10
M11
Maturity (Month)
Carbon Futures
15 Apr 15 08 Apr 15 16 Mar 15 15 Jan 15
EUR/MT
Industrial Metals
Source: Bloomberg, ETF Securities Source: Bloomberg, ETF Securities
Source: Bloomberg, ETF Securities Source: Bloomberg, ETF Securities
Source: Bloomberg, ETF Securities Source: Bloomberg, ETF Securities
Source: Bloomberg, ETF Securities
Note: all commodity futures price data is denominated in USD unless otherwise indicated. 19
$1,750
$1,800
$1,850
$1,900
$1,950
$2,000
M1
M3
M5
M7
M9
M11
M13
M15
M17
M19
M2
1
M2
3
M2
5
M2
7
M2
9
M3
1
M3
3
M3
5
Maturity (Month)
Aluminum Futures
15 Apr 15 08 Apr 15 16 Mar 15 15 Jan 15
USD/MT
$1,700
$1,750
$1,800
$1,850
$1,900
$1,950
$2,000
$2,050
$2,100
M1
M3
M5
M7
M9
M11
M13
M15
M17
M19
M2
1
M2
3
M2
5
M2
7
M2
9
M3
1
M3
3
M3
5
Maturity (Month)
Lead Futures
15 Apr 15 08 Apr 15 16 Mar 15 15 Jan 15
USD/MT
$2.40
$2.45
$2.50
$2.55
$2.60
$2.65
$2.70
$2.75
$2.80
M1
M2
M3
M4
M5
M6
M7
M8
M9
M10
M11
M12
M13
M14
M15
M16
M17
M18
M19
M2
0
M2
1
M2
2
M2
3
M2
4
M2
5
Maturity (Month)
Copper (COMEX) Futures
15 Apr 15 08 Apr 15 16 Mar 15 15 Jan 15
USD/lb.
$5,400
$5,500
$5,600
$5,700
$5,800
$5,900
$6,000
$6,100
M1
M3
M5
M7
M9
M11
M13
M15
M17
M19
M2
1
M2
3
M2
5
M2
7
M2
9
M3
1
M3
3
M3
5
Maturity (Month)
Copper (LME) Futures
15 Apr 15 08 Apr 15 16 Mar 15 15 Jan 15
USD/MT
$15,000$15,500
$16,000
$16,500$17,000
$17,500$18,000
$18,500$19,000
$19,500
$20,000
M1
M2
M3
M4
M5
M6
M7
M8
M9
M10
M11
M12
M13
M14
M15
Maturity (Month)
Tin Futures
15 Apr 15 08 Apr 15 16 Mar 15 15 Jan 15
USD/MT
$12,000
$12,500
$13,000
$13,500
$14,000
$14,500
$15,000
M1
M3
M5
M7
M9
M11
M13
M15
M17
M19
M2
1
M2
3
M2
5
M2
7
M2
9
M3
1
M3
3
M3
5
Maturity (Month)
Nickel Futures
15 Apr 15 08 Apr 15 16 Mar 15 15 Jan 15
USD/MT
$1,900
$1,950
$2,000
$2,050
$2,100
$2,150
$2,200
$2,250
M1
M3
M5
M7
M9
M11
M13
M15
M17
M19
M2
1
M2
3
M2
5
M2
7
M2
9
M3
1
M3
3
M3
5
Maturity (Month)
Zinc Futures
15 Apr 15 08 Apr 15 16 Mar 15 15 Jan 15
USD/MT
Precious Metals
Source: Bloomberg, ETF Securities Source: Bloomberg, ETF Securities
Source: Bloomberg, ETF Securities Source: Bloomberg, ETF Securities
Livestock
Source: Bloomberg, ETF Securities
Source: Bloomberg, ETF Securities
Note: all commodity futures price data is denominated in USD unless otherwise indicated. 20
$15
$16
$16
$17
$17
$18
$18
M1
M2
M3
M4
M5
M6
M7
M8
M9
M10
M11
M12
M13
M14
M15
M16
M17
Maturity (Month)
Silver Futures
15 Apr 15 08 Apr 15 16 Mar 15 15 Jan 15
USD/t oz.
$1,100
$1,150
$1,200
$1,250
$1,300
$1,350
$1,400
M1
M2
M3
M4
M5
M6
M7
M8
M9
M10
M11
M12
M13
M14
M15
M16
M17
M18
M19
M2
0
Maturity (Month)
Gold Futures
15 Apr 15 08 Apr 15 16 Mar 15 15 Jan 15
USD/t oz.
$1,100
$1,120
$1,140
$1,160
$1,180
$1,200
$1,220
$1,240
$1,260
$1,280
M1 M2 M3 M4 M5Maturity (Month)
Platinum Futures
15 Apr 15 08 Apr 15 16 Mar 15 15 Jan 15
USD/t oz.
$740
$745
$750
$755
$760
$765
$770
$775
$780
$785
M1 M2 M3 M4 M5Maturity (Month)
Palladium Futures
15 Apr 15 08 Apr 15 16 Mar 15 15 Jan 15
USD/t oz.
$0.60
$0.65
$0.70
$0.75
$0.80
$0.85
$0.90
M1
M2
M3
M4
M5
M6
M7
M8
M9
M10
M11
Maturity (Month)
Lean Hogs Futures
15 Apr 15 08 Apr 15 16 Mar 15 15 Jan 15
USD/lb.
$1.30
$1.35
$1.40
$1.45
$1.50
$1.55
$1.60
$1.65
M1 M2 M3 M4 M5 M6 M7 M8 M9Maturity (Month)
Live Cattle Futures
15 Apr 15 08 Apr 15 16 Mar 15 15 Jan 15
USD/lb.
$1.80
$1.85
$1.90
$1.95
$2.00
$2.05
$2.10
$2.15
$2.20
M1 M2 M3 M4 M5 M6 M7 M8Maturity (Month)
Feeder Cattle Futures
15 Apr 15 08 Apr 15 16 Mar 15 15 Jan 15
USD/lb.
Agriculture
Source: Bloomberg, ETF Securities Source: Bloomberg, ETF Securities
Source: Bloomberg, ETF Securities Source: Bloomberg, ETF Securities
Source: Bloomberg, ETF Securities Source: Bloomberg, ETF Securities
Source: Bloomberg, ETF Securities Source: Bloomberg, ETF Securities
Note: "Roll Yield Over Time" charts show commodity futures roll yields from the front to the second month over time at specified dates.
Charts called "Roll Yields Along the Curve" show the roll yields when rolling between the specified contracts. 21
Roll Yields
-1%
0%
1%
1%
2%
2%
3%
3%
4%
M1 ↓
M2
M1 ↓
M3
M4 ↓
M6
Cocoa Futures
Wednesday 15 Apr 15 -1 month (16 Mar 15)
'May 15 'Jul 15
'Mar 15 'May 15
'May 15 'Sep 15
'Mar 15 'Jul 15
'Dec 15 'May 16
'Sep 15 'Mar 16
-6%
-5%
-4%
-3%
-2%
-1%
0%
M1 ↓
M2
M1 ↓
M3
M4 ↓
M6
M1 ↓
M12
Coffee Futures
Wednesday 15 Apr 15 -1 month (16 Mar 15)
'May 15 'Jul 15
'Mar 15 'May 15
'May 15 'Sep 15
'Mar 15 'Jul 15
'Dec 15 'May 16
'Sep 15 'Mar 16
'May 15 'Jul 17
'Mar 15 'May 17
-5%
-5%
-4%
-4%
-3%
-3%
-2%
-2%
-1%
-1%
0%
M1 ↓
M2
M1 ↓
M3
M4 ↓
M6
M1 ↓
M12
Corn Futures
Wednesday 15 Apr 15 -1 month (16 Mar 15)
'May 15 'Jul 15
'May 15 'Jul 15
'May 15 'Sep 15
'May 15 'Sep 15
'Dec 15 'May 16
'Dec 15 'May 16
'May 15 'Jul 17
'May 15 'Jul 17
-3%
-2%
-2%
-1%
-1%
0%
M1 ↓
M2
M1 ↓
M3
M4 ↓
M6
M1 ↓
M12
Cotton Futures
Wednesday 15 Apr 15 -1 month (16 Mar 15)
'May 15 'Jul 15
'May 15 'Jul 15
'May 15 'Oct 15
'May 15 'Oct 15
'Dec 15 'May 16
'Dec 15 'May 16
'May 15 'Jul 17
'May 15 'Jul 17
-1.4%
-1.2%
-1.0%
-0.8%
-0.6%
-0.4%
-0.2%
0.0%
0.2%
0.4%
Feb Apr Jun Aug Nov
Bloomberg Cocoa Subindex
10 Yrs Average 5 Yrs Average 2014 2015
-3.5%
-3.0%
-2.5%
-2.0%
-1.5%
-1.0%
-0.5%
0.0%
Feb Apr Jun Aug Nov
Bloomberg Coffee Subindex
10 Yrs Average 5 Yrs Average 2014 2015
-5%
-4%
-3%
-2%
-1%
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
Feb Apr Jun Aug Nov
Bloomberg Corn Subindex
10 Yrs Average 5 Yrs Average 2014 2015
-4%
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
Feb Apr Jun Nov
Bloomberg Cotton Subindex
10 Yrs Average 5 Yrs Average 2014 2015
Agriculture (continued)
Source: Bloomberg, ETF Securities Source: Bloomberg, ETF Securities
Source: Bloomberg, ETF Securities Source: Bloomberg, ETF Securities
Source: Bloomberg, ETF Securities Source: Bloomberg, ETF Securities
Source: Bloomberg, ETF Securities Source: Bloomberg, ETF Securities
Note: "Roll Yield Over Time" charts show commodity futures roll yields from the front to the second month over time at specified dates.
Charts called "Roll Yields Along the Curve" show the roll yields when rolling between the specified contracts. 22
-1.0%
-0.9%
-0.8%
-0.7%
-0.6%
-0.5%
-0.4%
-0.3%
-0.2%
-0.1%
0.0%
M1 ↓
M2
M1 ↓
M3
M4 ↓
M6
M1 ↓
M12
Soybean Oil Futures
Wednesday 15 Apr 15 -1 month (16 Mar 15)
'May 15 'Jul 15
'May 15 'Jul 15
'May 15 'Aug 15
'May 15 'Aug 15
'Sep 15 'Dec 15
'Sep 15 'Dec 15
'May 15 'Sep 16
'May 15 'Sep 16
-0.5%
-0.4%
-0.3%
-0.2%
-0.1%
0.0%
0.1%
0.2%
0.3%
0.4%
M1 ↓
M2
M1 ↓
M3
M4 ↓
M6
M1 ↓
M12
Soybeans Futures
Wednesday 15 Apr 15 -1 month (16 Mar 15)
'May 15 'Jul 15
'May 15 'Jul 15
'May 15 'Aug 15
'May 15 'Aug 15
'Sep 15 'Jan 16
'Sep 15 'Jan 16
'May 15 'Nov 16
'May 15 'Nov 16
-5%
-4%
-3%
-2%
-1%
0%
1%
M1 ↓
M2
M1 ↓
M3
M4 ↓
M6
Sugar Futures
Wednesday 15 Apr 15 -1 month (16 Mar 15)
'May 15 'Jul 15
'May 15 'Jul 15
'May 15 'Oct 15
'May 15 'Oct 15
'Mar 16 'Jul 16
'Mar 16 'Jul 16
-5.0%
-4.0%
-3.0%
-2.0%
-1.0%
0.0%
1.0%
M1 ↓
M2
M1 ↓
M3
M4 ↓
M6
M1 ↓
M12
Wheat Futures
Wednesday 15 Apr 15 -1 month (16 Mar 15)
'May 15 'Jul 15
'May 15 'Jul 15
'May 15 'Sep 15
'May 15 'Sep 15
'Dec 15 'May 16
'Dec 15 'May 16
'May 15 'Jul 17
'May 15 'Jul 17
-1.8%
-1.6%
-1.4%
-1.2%
-1.0%
-0.8%
-0.6%
-0.4%
-0.2%
0.0%
Feb Apr Jun Oct Dec
Bloomberg Soybean Oil Subindex
10 Yrs Average 5 Yrs Average 2014 2015
-4%
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
16%
Feb Apr Jun Oct Dec
Bloomberg Soybeans Subindex
10 Yrs Average 5 Yrs Average 2014 2015
-16%
-14%
-12%
-10%
-8%
-6%
-4%
-2%
0%
2%
4%
Feb Apr Jun Sep
Bloomberg Sugar Subindex
10 Yrs Average 5 Yrs Average 2014 2015
-4.5%
-4.0%
-3.5%
-3.0%
-2.5%
-2.0%
-1.5%
-1.0%
-0.5%
0.0%
0.5%
Feb Apr Jun Aug Nov
Bloomberg Wheat Subindex
10 Yrs Average 5 Yrs Average 2014 2015
Livestock
Source: Bloomberg, ETF Securities Source: Bloomberg, ETF Securities
Source: Bloomberg, ETF Securities Source: Bloomberg, ETF Securities
Energy
Source: Bloomberg, ETF Securities Source: Bloomberg, ETF Securities
Source: Bloomberg, ETF Securities Source: Bloomberg, ETF Securities
Note: "Roll Yield Over Time" charts show commodity futures roll yields from the front to the second month over time at specified dates.
Charts called "Roll Yields Along the Curve" show the roll yields when rolling between the specified contracts. 23
-25%
-20%
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
M1 ↓
M2
M1 ↓
M3
M4 ↓
M6
Lean Hogs Futures
Wednesday 15 Apr 15 -1 month (16 Mar 15)
'Apr 15 'May 15
'Apr 15 'May 15
'Apr 15 'Jun 15
'Apr 15 'Jun 15
'Jul 15 'Oct 15
'Jul 15 'Oct 15
-1%
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
8%
9%
M1 ↓
M2
M1 ↓
M3
M4 ↓
M6
Live Cattle Futures
Wednesday 15 Apr 15 -1 month (16 Mar 15)
'Apr 15 'Jun 15
'Apr 15 'Jun 15
'Apr 15 'Aug 15
'Apr 15 'Aug 15
'Oct 15 'Feb 16
'Oct 15 'Feb 16
-7.0%
-6.0%
-5.0%
-4.0%
-3.0%
-2.0%
-1.0%
0.0%
M1 ↓
M2
M1 ↓
M3
M4 ↓
M6
M1 ↓
M12
M12 ↓
M24
M24 ↓
M36
Brent Oil Futures
Wednesday 15 Apr 15 -1 month (16 Mar 15)
'May 15 'Jun 15
'Apr 15 'May 15
'May 15 'Jul 15
'Apr 15 'Jun 15
'Aug 15 'Oct 15
'Jul 15 'Sep 15
'May 15 'Apr 16
'Apr 15 'Mar 16
'Apr 16 'Mar 17
'Mar 16 'Feb 17
'Mar 17 'Feb 18
'Feb 17 'Jan 18
-5.0%
-4.0%
-3.0%
-2.0%
-1.0%
0.0%
1.0%
2.0%
Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov
Bloomberg Brent Crude Subindex
10 Yrs Average 5 Yrs Average 2014 2015
-9.0%
-8.0%
-7.0%
-6.0%
-5.0%
-4.0%
-3.0%
-2.0%
-1.0%
0.0%
M1 ↓
M2
M1 ↓
M3
M4 ↓
M6
M1 ↓
M12
M12 ↓
M24
M24 ↓
M36
WTI Oil Futures
Wednesday 15 Apr 15 -1 month (16 Mar 15)
'May 15 'Jun
15
'Apr 15 'May 15
'May 15 'Jul
15
'Apr 15 'Jun 15
'Aug 15 'Oct 15
'Jul 15 'Sep 15
'May 15 'Apr
16
'Apr 15 'Mar 16
'Apr 16 'Mar 17
'Mar 16 'Feb 17
'Mar 17 'Feb 18
'Feb 17 'Jan 18
-8%
-7%
-6%
-5%
-4%
-3%
-2%
-1%
0%
1%
2%
3%
Feb Apr Jun Aug Oct Dec
Bloomberg WTI Crude Oil Subindex
10 Yrs Average 5 Yrs Average 2014 2015
-25%
-20%
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
Jan Mar May Jun Jul Sep Nov
Bloomberg Lean Hogs Subindex
10 Yrs Average 5 Yrs Average 2014 2015
-6%
-4%
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov
Bloomberg Live Cattle Subindex
10 Yrs Average 5 Yrs Average 2013 2014
Energy (continued)
Source: Bloomberg, ETF Securities Source: Bloomberg, ETF Securities
Source: Bloomberg, ETF Securities Source: Bloomberg, ETF Securities
Source: Bloomberg, ETF Securities Source: Bloomberg, ETF Securities
Industrial Metals
Source: Bloomberg, ETF Securities Source: Bloomberg, ETF Securities
Note: "Roll Yield Over Time" charts show commodity futures roll yields from the front to the second month over time at specified dates.
Charts called "Roll Yields Along the Curve" show the roll yields when rolling between the specified contracts. 24
-4%
-2%
0%
M1 ↓
M2
M1 ↓
M3
M4 ↓
M6
M1 ↓
M12
M12 ↓
M24
M24 ↓
M36
Natural Gas Futures
Wednesday 15 Apr 15 -1 month (16 Mar 15)
'May 15 'Jun
15
'Apr 15 'May 15
'May 15 'Jul
15
'Apr 15 'Jun 15
'Aug 15 'Oct 15
'Jul 15 'Sep 15
'May 15 'Apr
16
'Apr 15 'Mar 16
'Apr 16 'Mar 17
'Mar 16 'Feb 17
'Mar 17 'Feb 18
'Feb 17 'Jan 18
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
M1 ↓
M2
M1 ↓
M3
M4 ↓
M6
M1 ↓
M12
M12 ↓
M24
M24 ↓
M36
Gasoline Futures
Wednesday 15 Apr 15 -1 month (16 Mar 15)
'May 15 'Jun
15
'Apr 15 'May 15
'May 15 'Jul
15
'Apr 15 'Jun 15
'Aug 15 'Oct 15
'Jul 15 'Sep 15
'May 15 'Apr
16
'Apr 15 'Mar 16
'Apr 16 'Mar 17
'Mar 16 'Feb 17
'Mar 17 'Feb 18
'Feb 17 'Jan 18
-4.0%
-2.0%
0.0%
2.0%
M1 ↓
M2
M1 ↓
M3
M4 ↓
M6
M1 ↓
M12
M12 ↓
M24
M24 ↓
M36
Heating Oil Futures
Wednesday 15 Apr 15 -1 month (16 Mar 15)
'May 15 'Jun
15
'Apr 15 'May 15
'May 15 'Jul
15
'Apr 15 'Jun 15
'Aug 15 'Oct 15
'Jul 15 'Sep 15
'May 15 'Apr
16
'Apr 15 'Mar 16
'Apr 16 'Mar 17
'Mar 16 'Feb 17
'Mar 17 'Feb 18
'Feb 17 'Jan 18
-20%
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
Feb Apr Jun Aug Oct Dec
Bloomberg Natural Gas Subindex
10 Yrs Average 5 Yrs Average 2014 2015
-25%
-20%
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
Feb Apr Jun Aug Oct Dec
Bloomberg Unleaded Gasoline Subindex
10 Yrs Average 5 Yrs Average 2014 2015
-3%
-3%
-2%
-2%
-1%
-1%
0%
1%
1%
2%
2%
3%
Feb Apr Jun Aug Oct Dec
Bloomberg Heating Oil Subindex
10 Yrs Average 5 Yrs Average 2014 2015
-0.8%
-0.6%
-0.4%
-0.2%
0.0%
0.2%
0.4%
0.6%
M1 ↓
M2
M1 ↓
M3
M4 ↓
M6
M1 ↓
M12
M12 ↓
M24
M24 ↓
M36
Aluminum Futures
Wednesday 15 Apr 15 -1 month (16 Mar 15)
'May 15 'Jun
15
'Mar 15 'Apr 15
'May 15 'Jul
15
'Mar 15 'May 15
'Aug 15 'Oct 15
'Jun 15 'Aug 15
'May 15 'Apr
16
'Mar 15 'Feb 16
'Apr 16 'Mar 17
'Feb 16 'Jan 17
'Mar 17 'Feb 18
'Jan 17 'Dec 17
-2.0%
-1.8%
-1.6%
-1.4%
-1.2%
-1.0%
-0.8%
-0.6%
-0.4%
-0.2%
0.0%
Feb Apr Jun Aug Oct Dec
Bloomberg Aluminum Subindex
10 Yrs Average 5 Yrs Average 2014 2015
Industrial Metals (continued)
Source: Bloomberg, ETF Securities Source: Bloomberg, ETF Securities
Source: Bloomberg, ETF Securities Source: Bloomberg, ETF Securities
Source: Bloomberg, ETF Securities Source: Bloomberg, ETF Securities
Source: Bloomberg, ETF Securities Source: Bloomberg, ETF Securities
Note: "Roll Yield Over Time" charts show commodity futures roll yields from the front to the second month over time at specified dates.
Charts called "Roll Yields Along the Curve" show the roll yields when rolling between the specified contracts. 25
0.0%
0.1%
0.1%
0.2%
0.2%
0.3%
0.3%
0.4%
0.4%
M1 ↓
M2
M1 ↓
M3
M4 ↓
M6
M1 ↓
M12
M12 ↓
M24
Copper Futures
Wednesday 15 Apr 15 -1 month (16 Mar 15)
'May 15 'Jul
15
'Mar 15 'May 15
'May 15 'Sep
15
'Mar 15 'Jul 15
'Dec 15 'May 16
'Sep 15 'Mar 16
'May 15 'Jul
17
'Mar 15 'May 17
'Jul 17 'Sep 19
'May 17 'Jul
19
-0.2%
-0.2%
-0.2%
-0.1%
-0.1%
-0.1%
-0.1%
-0.1%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
M1 ↓
M2
M1 ↓
M3
M4 ↓
M6
M1 ↓
M12
Tin Futures
Wednesday 15 Apr 15 -1 month (16 Mar 15)
'May 15 'Jun 15
'Mar 15 'Apr 15
'May 15 'Jul 15
'Mar 15 'May 15
'Aug 15 'Oct 15
'Jun 15 'Aug 15
'May 15 'Apr 16
'Mar 15 'Feb 16
-0.30%
-0.25%
-0.20%
-0.15%
-0.10%
-0.05%
0.00%
0.05%
M1 ↓
M2
M1 ↓
M3
M4 ↓
M6
M1 ↓
M12
M12 ↓
M24
M24 ↓
M36
Nickel Futures
Wednesday 15 Apr 15 -1 month (16 Mar 15)
'May 15 'Jun 15
'Mar 15 'Apr 15
'May 15 'Jul 15
'Mar 15 'May 15
'Aug 15 'Oct 15
'Jun 15 'Aug 15
'May 15 'Apr 16
'Mar 15 'Feb 16
'Apr 16 'Mar 17
'Feb 16 'Jan 17
'Mar 17 'Feb 18
'Jan 17 'Dec 17
-0.5%
-0.4%
-0.3%
-0.2%
-0.1%
0.0%
0.1%
M1 ↓
M2
M1 ↓
M3
M4 ↓
M6
M1 ↓
M12
M12 ↓
M24
M24 ↓
M36
Lead Futures
Wednesday 15 Apr 15 -1 month (16 Mar 15)
'May 15 'Jun
15
'Mar 15 'Apr 15
'May 15 'Jul
15
'Mar 15 'May 15
'Aug 15 'Oct 15
'Jun 15 'Aug 15
'May 15 'Apr
16
'Mar 15 'Feb 16
'Apr 16 'Mar 17
'Feb 16 'Jan 17
'Mar 17 'Feb 18
'Jan 17 'Dec 17
-0.6%
-0.5%
-0.4%
-0.3%
-0.2%
-0.1%
0.0%
0.1%
0.2%
0.3%
0.4%
0.5%
Feb Apr Jun Aug Nov
Bloomberg Copper Subindex
10 Yrs Average 5 Yrs Average 2014 2015
-1.0%
-0.8%
-0.6%
-0.4%
-0.2%
0.0%
0.2%
0.4%
0.6%
0.8%
1.0%
Feb Apr Jun Aug Oct Dec
Bloomberg Lead Subindex
10 Yrs Average 5 Yrs Average 2014 2015
-0.4%
-0.3%
-0.2%
-0.1%
0.0%
0.1%
0.2%
0.3%
0.4%
Feb Apr Jun Aug Oct Dec
Bloomberg Nickel Subindex
10 Yrs Average 5 Yrs Average 2014 2015
-0.2%
-0.1%
0.0%
0.1%
0.2%
0.3%
0.4%
0.5%
0.6%
Feb Apr Jun Aug Oct Dec
Bloomberg Tin Subindex
10 Yrs Average 5 Yrs Average 2014 2015
Industrial Metals (continued)
Source: Bloomberg, ETF Securities Source: Bloomberg, ETF Securities
Precious Metals
Source: Bloomberg, ETF Securities Source: Bloomberg, ETF Securities
Source: Bloomberg, ETF Securities Source: Bloomberg, ETF Securities
Source: Bloomberg, ETF Securities Source: Bloomberg, ETF Securities
Note: "Roll Yield Over Time" charts show commodity futures roll yields from the front to the second month over time at specified dates.
Charts called "Roll Yields Along the Curve" show the roll yields when rolling between the specified contracts. 26
-0.5%
-0.4%
-0.3%
-0.2%
-0.1%
0.0%
0.1%
M1 ↓
M2
M1 ↓
M3
M4 ↓
M6
M1 ↓
M12
M12 ↓
M24
M24 ↓
M36
Zinc Futures
Wednesday 15 Apr 15 -1 month (16 Mar 15)
'May 15 'Jun
15
'Mar 15 'Apr 15
'May 15 'Jul
15
'Mar 15 'May 15
'Aug 15 'Oct 15
'Jun 15 'Aug 15
'May 15 'Apr
16
'Mar 15 'Feb 16
'Apr 16 'Mar 17
'Feb 16 'Jan 17
'Mar 17 'Feb 18
'Jan 17 'Dec 17
-0.20%
-0.15%
-0.10%
-0.05%
0.00%
0.05%
M1 ↓
M2
M1 ↓
M3
M4 ↓
M6
M1 ↓
M12
Gold Futures
Wednesday 15 Apr 15 -1 month (16 Mar 15)
'Apr 15 'Jun 15
'Apr 15 'Jun 15
'Apr 15 'Aug 15
'Apr 15 'Aug 15
'Oct 15 'Feb 16
'Oct 15 'Feb 16
'Apr 15 'Feb 17
#N/A
-0.60%
-0.50%
-0.40%
-0.30%
-0.20%
-0.10%
0.00%
M1 ↓
M2
M1 ↓
M3
M4 ↓
M6
M1 ↓
M12
Silver Futures
Wednesday 15 Apr 15 -1 month (16 Mar 15)
'May 15 'Jul 15
'Mar 15 'May 15
'May 15 'Sep 15
'Mar 15 'Jul 15
'Dec 15 'Mar 16
'Sep 15 'Jan 16
'May 15 'Jul 17
'Mar 15 'Jan 17
-0.35%
-0.30%
-0.25%
-0.20%
-0.15%
-0.10%
-0.05%
0.00%
M1 ↓
M2
M1 ↓
M3
Platinum Futures
Wednesday 15 Apr 15 -1 month (16 Mar 15)
'Apr 15 'Jul 15
'Apr 15 'Jul 15
'Apr 15 'Oct 15
'Apr 15 'Oct 15
-1.2%
-1.0%
-0.8%
-0.6%
-0.4%
-0.2%
0.0%
Feb Apr Jun Aug Oct Dec
Bloomberg Zinc Subindex
10 Yrs Average 5 Yrs Average 2014 2015
-0.9%
-0.8%
-0.7%
-0.6%
-0.5%
-0.4%
-0.3%
-0.2%
-0.1%
0.0%
Jan Mar May Jul Nov
Bloomberg Gold Subindex
10 Yrs Average 5 Yrs Average 2014 2015
-0.7%
-0.6%
-0.5%
-0.4%
-0.3%
-0.2%
-0.1%
0.0%
Feb Apr Jun Aug Nov
Bloomberg Silver Subindex
10 Yrs Average 5 Yrs Average 2014 2015
-0.4%
-0.4%
-0.3%
-0.3%
-0.2%
-0.2%
-0.1%
-0.1%
0.0%
Mar Jun Sep Dec
Bloomberg Platinum Subindex
10 Yrs Average 5 Yrs Average 2014 2015
Commodity Monthly Matrix Explained
CALENDAR
ETF Securities - Recent Research Notes30-Jan-15 Nitesh Shah China Macro Monitor: From Cyclical to Structural
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05-Feb-15 Simona Gambarini Oil: Can Recent Gains be Sustained?
04-Mar-15 Research Team Monthly Update - The World of Negative Rates
18-Mar-15 Martin Arnold Patience Could Derail US Dollar Rally
20-Mar-15 Simona Gambarini Platinum and Palladium - Fundamentally Undervalued
23-Mar-15 Nitesh Shah Energy Wars: Battle of Technologies
25-Mar-15 Research Team Macro Outlook: Much Ado About Zero…
09-Apr-15 Research Team
The research notes are for qualified investors only.
Key ReportsCurrent Next release
09-Apr-15 12-May-15 USDA World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates
07-Apr-15 12-May-15 EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook
16-Apr-15 12-May-15 OPEC OPEC Oil Market Report
15-Apr-15 13-May-15 IEA IEA Oil Market Report
DISCLAIMER
Important Information
The analyses in the above tables are purely for information purposes. They do not reflect the performance of any ETF Securities' products . The futures and roll returns are not necessarily investable.
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Score based on unweighted sum of four fundamental/technical measures detailed below with each measure awarded a possible score of -1, 0, or 1 depending onwhether variable is viewed as fundamentally negative, neutral or positive. Score ranging from -4 to +4. For commodities where data is not available or not relevant,scores are calculated on remaining variables and adjusted to the -4 to +4 scale. The score matrix is designed to highlight significant changes in key variables butshould not be viewed as predictor of performance.
The four fundamental/technical measures are as follow:- price vs. 200 days moving average: 1 when price is above 200dma and return is positive, -1 when price is below 200dma and return is negative, 0 otherwise- % change in net positioning over the past month: 1 when % change is positive, -1 when % change is negative, 0 when no change- % change in inventory level over the past 3 months: 1 when % is negative, -1 when % is positive, 0 when no change- roll yield between the front and second month futures contracts: 1 when in backwardation, -1 when in contango, 0 when no change
In-Depth Research Note: Outlook Q2-15 - Tightening Supply Brightens Commodity Outlook in Face of Rising US Dollar
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