commodity grain update - nopa · • global pork production forecasted to increase 2.6% next year...
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NOPA
Feb 2017
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Global Pork Production
Source: USDA-WASDE
• Global pork production forecasted to increase 2.6% next year
• US (+3.8%) and China (+3.6%) outpacing global growth Source: USDA
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China Pork Imports
Source: USDA-WASDE
• China’s pork imports increased 130% in 2016 and forecasted to remain strong in 2017
Source: USDA
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Global Poultry Production
Source: USDA-WASDE
• Global broiler production forecasted to increase 1% next year
• US (+2.2%) and Brazil (+3.5%) outpacing global growth Source: USDA
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Global Beef Production
Source: USDA-WASDE
• Global beef production forecasted to increase 1% next year
• US (+3.7%) outpacing global growth Source: USDA
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Changing Consumer Trends
Source: USDA-WASDESource: NCC
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Changing Consumer Trends
Source: USDA-WASDESource: Harvard Business Review, Technomics
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Changing Consumer Trends
Source: USDA-WASDE
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Veg Fed
Source: USDA-WASDESource: Agri Stats
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Antibiotic Free
Source: USDA-WASDE
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Antibiotic Free
Source: USDA-WASDE
“We are committing to use chicken that is not raised with antibiotics important to human medicine. McDonald’s has been working closely with farmers for years to reduce the use of antibiotics in our supply, thus we are able to commit today to stop using antibiotics important to human medicine in chicken production for McDonald’s USA by March 2017.”
“In partnership with our suppliers, we're working to establish a stable, sustainable, supply chain that can deliver on our promise of no antibiotics. Ever. This means that by the end of 2019, every customer, at every restaurant across the country will be served chicken without antibiotics every day (except Sundays, of course!).”
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Antibiotic Free
Source: USDA-WASDESource: Agri Stats
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Organic Poultry
Source: USDA-WASDE
• Retail organic chicken sales growing at exceptional rate
• Domestic organic soybean production relatively flat
Source: IRI
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US Organic Soybean Acres
Source: USDA-WASDESource: USDA
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Organic Soybean Trends
Source: USDA-WASDE
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Supply Chain Effects
Source: USDA-WASDE
• Increase in Veg Fed Programs to increase demand for vegetable proteins in US rations
• Adoption of ABF production to have minimal impact on feed ingredient supply chain
• Organic production trend to have potentially material impact on ingredient sourcing