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ANZ RESEARCH

COMMODITY CALL

10 JULY 2013

INSIDE

Summary 1Macro Backdrop 2

Charts of the Month 3

Commodity Calls 4Feature Note 7

Trade Ideas 9Commodity Prices 10

CFTC Table 11

Calendar Heatmap 12

Forward Curves 13Moving Averages 14

Forecasts 15Contacts 16

Disclaimer 17

CONTRIBUTORS

Mark PervanGlobal Head of Commodity Strategy

+61 3 8655 9243

[email protected]

Paul DeaneSenior Agricultural Economist+613 8655 9078

[email protected]

Victor ThianpiriyaCommodity Strategist

+65 6681 [email protected]

Natalie Rampono

Commodity Strategist+613 8655 9258

[email protected]

SEASONAL DEMAND PASSING

June was a volatile month for commodity prices, with significant headwinds

from China and the US undermining risk appetite for commodities. Despite

these headwinds, our proprietary ANZ-CCI ended the month only mildly lower,

with stronger energy, iron ore markets offsetting weaker precious and base

metals. Looking forward, we expect commodity markets to experience false

starts this month as early signs of a bottom in prices begin to emerge. But any

upside will likely be short-lived. Blurring the picture is the passing of a peak in

seasonal demand and an unclear position for Chinas near-term growth outlook.

In addition, the perception and eventual withdrawal of USD liquidity from global

financial markets will likely generate some uncertainty for commodity moves.

FEATURE ARTICLES

This month, we have two feature articles. The first is a review of our

commodity price forecasts, where weaker China demand and fragile investor

sentiment has prompted downward price revisions. The second note looks at

the outlook for Indonesian wheat imports. Indonesia is Australias largest buyer

of wheat and looks set to overtake Egypt as the worlds largest wheat importer

within the next five years.

KEY TRADES

Long WTI/Brent spread divergent demand & declining stocks to support WTI

Short iron ore weaker capesize rates & seasonal slowdown in China

ANZ CHINA COMMODITY INDEX

FIGURE 1. RECENT BOUNCE JUST A FALSE START

380

400

420

440

460

480

500

Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov Jan Mar May Jul

ANZ CCI

Points

Period in Reference

-- 2013 -->-- 2012 -->

Source: ANZ Commodity Strategy


2/18

ANZ Commodity Call / 10 July 2013 / 2 of 18

MACRO BACKDROP

SEASONAL DEMAND PASSING

False starts expected as less negative datatriggers relief rallies

Passing peak in seasonal demand and unclearChina outlook continue to blur the picture

Oil to hold up better as unpredictable supplyoutages emerge

June was a volatile month for commodity prices, with

significant headwinds from China and the US

undermining risk appetite for commodities. Precious

metals were the worst performers, hit by a double

whammy of a severe credit crunch in China and the US

Federal Reserve confirming an earlier timeframe for

easing its asset purchase program. Base metals also fell,impacted by weaker manufacturing in China and further

uncertainty regarding demand. Despite these headwinds,

our proprietary ANZ-CCI ended the month only mildly

lower, held up by energy, iron ore and cotton markets.

Stronger physical trade or increased supply risks appear

to be the underlying support for these markets.

We expect commodity markets to experience false starts

this month as early signs of a bottom in prices begin to

emerge. Investors have priced in a lot of the downside

for China, with record high speculative net shorts in

markets like copper and we think less negative or

encouraging data could trigger relief rallies. But anyupside will likely be short-lived. Blurring the picture is the

passing of a peak in seasonal demand and an unclear

position for Chinas near-term growth outlook.

Although liquidity tightness in China has started to ease,

funding costs are unlikely to return to normal levels any

time soon. If Chinas central bank continues to tighten

market liquidity despite a softer growth and inflation

outlook, growth risks could be to the downside in Q3 and

Q4. Were already seeing this play out in commodity

markets like coal, with rising expectations of defaults as

a series of contracts are renegotiated lower. Banks

appear to be taking a particularly hard line on commoditytrading activity since the start of the year, following a

rapid rise in non-participant commodity-based financing

over 2012.

Chinas property market is also vulnerable. Recent

property investment curbs to control prices dont appear

to be working, with home prices and sales up in June.

This could further induce property controls, but we feel

this may accentuate the problem. Nearer-term,

commodities continue to remain sensitive to Chinas

manufacturing outlook. The latest PMIs suggest

momentum is slowing, which is also pressuring our

proprietary ANZ global lead indicator (ANZ-GLI).However, this has been partially offset by modest

improvements in the US and Japanese manufacturing

sectors.

We think the ANZ GLI will continue to grind lower this

month, with a collapse in Asian (ex-Japan) net capital

inflows, coinciding with near-term Fed tapering

expectations. US data has recently surprised on the

upside, supporting the case for Fed asset tapering, with

and global bond markets have re-priced for higher rates

across the yield curve. The perception and eventual

withdrawal of USD liquidity from global financial markets

should be negative for exchange-traded commodities,

especially gold.

Oil could continue to hold up better than other

commodity markets. Rising tensions in Egypt and

potentially other regions in the Middle East should

support a USD 5-10/bbl geopolitical risk premium. A re-

established positive correlation with equity markets could

also make oil more sensitive to macro-economic data and

earnings results. This may prompt greater divergence

between US oil and Brent oil benchmarks. However, with

record high speculative net long positioning in oil, the

market would also be vulnerable to some profit-taking.

In contrast, agricultural leveraged fund positioning has

moved net short for the first time in 18 months. Fund

outflows were particularly aggressive in grain markets in

the past month, a key factor behind grains being one of

the worst performing commodity markets. A warmer and

drier weather outlook in the US Mid West, improving US

corn yield prospects, and higher than expected corn

planting area, were behind the sell-off. The market had

expected US corn plantings in 2013 to be around 2

million acres below 2012, as cool, wet weather early in

the year delayed corn and soybean plantings. However, a

USDA report indicated the area planted to corn in the US

this season was 97.4 million acres, slightly above last

year. Looking forward, given the large price falls in the

past month, we expect grain prices to stabilise until there

is more clarity on US corn yields.

FIGURE 2. PRICE MOVEMENTS IN JUNE

(15) (10) (5) 0 5 10

Palladium

Silver

Gold

Corn

Platinum

Wheat

Aluminium

Lead

Copper

Nickel

Coking Coal

Soybean

Zinc

Palm Oil

China Hot Roll

Thermal Coal

ANZ CC ISugar

Brent Oil

Cotton

WTI Oil

Iron ore

M/M %

Hard/Energy

Ags/Softs

ANZ CCI

Source: ANZ Commodity Strategy


3/18


CHARTS OF THE MONTH

FIGURE 3.COMMODITIES TRACKING EMERGING

MARKET DECLINE IN RISK APPETITE

FIGURE 4. TURNING POINT FOR BALTIC FREIGHT

RATES & SEASONAL DEMAND

(5.0)

(4.0)

(3.0)

(2.0)

(1.0)

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13

Emerging mkts Devp'd mkts ANZ CCI

Dev'n 12m trend

divergence

RISK APPETITE & ANZ CCI

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

Jan-11 Jul-11 Jan-12 Jul-12 Jan-13 Jul-13

Baltic Dry Index Capesize Panamax

points

turning point?

BALTIC FREIGHT INDICES

Sources: Bloomberg, ANZ Commodity Strategy Sources: Bloomberg, ANZ Commodity Strategy

FIGURE 5. NO RESPONSE IN COKING COAL PRICESAFTER RECENT IRON ORE PRICE BOUNCE

FIGURE 6. MIDDLE EAST POLITICAL RISK BUOYS

SPECULATIVE OIL NET LONGS TO RECORD HIGHS

80

100

120

140

160

180

200


100

150

200

250

300

350

Iron Ore Price Hard Coking Coal Price (RHS)

USD/t USD/t

no coking coal

recovery

IRON ORE & COKING COAL PRICE

100

120

140

160

180200

220

240

260

280

300


WTI Net Long Brent Net Long

mbbls

record highs

CFTC NON-COMMERCIAL OIL POSITIONS

Sources: Bloomberg, ArgusCoal, ANZ Commodity Strategy Sources: Bloomberg, ANZ Commodity Strategy

FIGURE 7. GOLD/SILVER RATIO TRENDING HIGHER

AS SILVER MARKETS UNDERPERFORMFIGURE 8. US CORN CROP CONDITION NOTABLY

BETTER THAN AT THIS POINT IN 2012

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13

Gold price/Silver price 5-year average

times

57

current ratio - 65

gold expensive

gold cheap

GOLD/SILVER PRICE RATIO

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

May Jun Jul Aug Sep

2010 2011 2012 2013

% GOOD TO EXCELLENT CONDITION

Sources: Bloomberg, ANZ Commodity Strategy Sources: NASS, ANZ Commodity Strategy


4/18


COMMODITY CALLS

COMMODITY COMMENTS Bearish Neutral Bullish

ENERGY

Oil markets should hold up in July. However, bouts of profit-taking could be apparent as oil prices become overvalued.

Oil has held up much better than other commodities despite weaker China growth and expectations of US Fed asset

tapering. We still expect US oil markets to outperform Brent near-term. While both contracts tend to move in a similar

direction, an uneven global economic recovery and divergent demand trends should continue to support a better

performing US crude market. We also expect market participants will continue to factor in declining US stocks as

domestic transportation bottlenecks are alleviated. Although, supply shocks could emerge from geopolitical risks in

the Middle East and the onset of the US hurricane season.

The Brent/WTI spread hit a two and a half year low of USD4.5/bbl in June and we think is at risk of falling to a

discount. We also expect the steeply backwardated WTI curve to be maintained. WTI has recently re-established a

strong positive correlation with US equities and a lift in earnings following recent improved US data flows should buoy

the outlook for US oil consumption this year. Markets have been pencilling in easing transportation bottlenecks to the

US Gulf Coast. The return of the Tulsa East refinery, the start of a new 250kbbls/day CDU at Whiting and the start orramp ups of several new pipelines should occur near-term. As a result, inventories at Cushing should experience

draws near-term. A more active hurricane season is also on the cards, and could prompt a tighter supply outlook.

Demand fundamentals look less favourable for Brent. The onset of slower seasonal demand in the third quarter and

unclear position for Chinas near-term growth outlook could be a drag. North Sea production should return to normal

following maintenance, but any supply outages during the third quarter shoulder period will be closely monitored by

the market. Saudi Arabia also continues to raise production to maintain market share, which could offset some of the

supply losses from rising Middle East tensions and tighter Russian supplies. Although, rising geopolitical risk sentiment

stemming from turmoil in Egypt and potential regional supply shocks will likely support oil markets more generally.

BULKS

Bulk markets were mixed in June with stronger iron ore prices offsetting weaker coal prices. The divergingperformance of iron ore and coking coal was an interesting dynamic with iron ore gaining on the backdrop of flat to

weaker steel and coking coal prices. Reports of shipment defaults in thermal coal are also a shot across the bow that

all is not well, and with seasonal demand now declining, we expect bulk prices to consolidate or even weaken off

already low bases in the months ahead.

Rallying Baltic Capesize rates propped up iron ore prices in the past month as traders bet the bottom in prices had

passed. We think the bounce is just that, with prices likely to ease in the coming month as seasonal demand wanes.

Freight rates are still high, but have lost their upward momentum suggesting traders have had enough for the time

being. Chinese port stocks have also gained 7-8% in the past month suggesting the increased buying activity is going

into opportunistic inventory rebuilding rather than better demand. In the absence of stronger steel prices (not

apparent right now) spot iron ore prices should retrace back towards the USD110-115/t range in the short term.

Coking coal looks in worse shape decoupling from firmer iron ore prices over June. A flat steel market hasn't helped,

with ultra skinny steel mills margins making it very difficult to accept higher iron ore and coking coal prices at thesame time. Higher coal export volumes out of Australia looks a little misleading, but shows the pricing leverage steel

mills have at the moment - taking higher volumes at lower prices. In fact, rising supply in a weak market is fuelling

further price declines. Although prices now look distressed (for producers), stronger steel prices will be needed to

change the mood. This doesn't look likely in the next few months.

Thermal coal is defying logic, with prices dipping heavily into the cost curve. We estimate 30% of the seaborne

industry is losing money at current prices - most of it, Australian output. A falling Aussie dollar is not helping, with

high cost Australian producers delaying closure decisions on the mild positive currency impact. Reports of shipment

defaults highlight the negative tone of the market - and flags even lower prices in the short term. This could also

create an overhang of supply into the fourth quarter blunting a price pick up from stronger winter demand. Mild

support could come from reports Japan is increasing thermal power capacity, but better news has to come from the

bigger "growing" markets of China and India to re-ignite stronger prices.


5/18


COMMODITY CALLS


BASE METALS

Base metals could experience relief rallies as signs of a bottom in prices emerge. But these will be short-lived, with

the view on China still uncertain. Demand has been underwhelming and sentiment will likely remain cautious with

investors keeping a wary eye on tight credit conditions and rising property prices. Recent tight supply conditions and

higher premiums should start to ease as the traditional seasonal peak in demand passes and supply outages are

brought back online. Global LME inventories are still blurring the picture with inventory financing deals keeping levels

inflated and delayed delivery schedules. We think Chinese inventory moves should be a better guide of real demand

with a pull-back in local financing deals removing the non-commercial influence.

The volatility in copper prices will likely continue near-term. There could be some upside from greater copper imports

in June, after the Shanghai/LME differential reached the widest levels in 3 years. Domestic inventories are also posting

ongoing declines, down 30% to 173,000 tonnes since early April. However, LME warehouse delays continue to blur the

picture, with copper importers being forced to queue for already bought deliveries, as reflected by sticky near-record

high LME copper cancelled warrants. As a result, global LME stockpiles remain inflated near 10-year highs. Recentsupply tightness should also subside, with the return of Freeports Grasberg production to full capacity and

commencement of Rio Tintos 430ktpa Oyu Tolgoi copper concentrate shipments from Mongolia.

A crackdown on financial applications for high energy consumers or heavy polluting companies in China could see

more upside in aluminium, zinc and lead markets. Stockpile positions suggest lead is tighter than zinc while

aluminium markets continue to be pressured by overcapacity and near-record high stocks. Nickel probably has the

greatest potential for a short term rally, after two months of posting the biggest price declines. About 45% of global

nickel producers are operating below current prices and we expect global nickel producers (ex-China) will begin to cut

back output. That said, prices should remain under pressure with Chinas nickel pig iron (NPI) producers still operating

at full capacity. The average cost for Chinese NPI production is estimated to be below USD13,000/t and supplies have

been encouraged by ongoing declines for raw material costs (particularly coking coal).

PRECIOUS METALS

Precious metals declined sharply in June. Spot gold fell 12% in the month, taking losses for the calendar year to 26%.

Silver wasnt spared, also down 12%, but has fared worse than gold with the latest months moves taking silver losses

this year to 35%. Declines in platinum and palladium, down 8% and 10% respectively rounded off a difficult month

for the precious metals complex. Going forward, we think investor sentiment towards these markets will remain

negative. The ongoing capital flows into developed markets is boosting the USD and US interest rates, both of which

reduce the investment appeal of precious metals. And speculative net long position in both gold and silver are at

historical lows of 4.0%-4.5% of open interest, flagging lack of confidence short term.

Interestingly, physical gold demand in China remains strong and the onshore-offshore price differential has improved

to around USD30/oz, from USD18/oz in late May. Chinese demand remains robust, and imports for the first 5 months

of 2013 are almost double year-ago levels. However, India should continue to see weak import volumes amid higher

import duties and restrictions on gold consignments. These factors saw Indian gold imports reportedly fall to 31.5mtin June from 162mt in May, according to a government source. However, while we expect this to persist for some

months, we should see a pick up in volumes as we approach the wedding season starting in November.

We continue to see further near-term downside for gold. Technically, the market is still trying to establish a base, and

the style of further dips and rebounds should be closely monitored. We are biased lower in the near-term and are

targeting prices sub-USD1,150/oz, but look for a recovery in coming quarters. We expect gold to recover mildly from

these levels towards the end of the year and stabilise around USD1,300/oz. Selling by gold-backed exchange traded

funds (ETFs) have added the equivalent of 12.5% to global annual gold supplies in 2013 so far. This is one dynamic

that must subside before the market can stage any real recovery.

Platinum and palladium markets are supported by supply issues in South Africa, as workers undertook industrial

action related to pay disputes. Immediate concerns may have been alleviated as Amplats announced the return of

workers, though wage negotiations are set to continue over the next few weeks and could be a source of near-term

volatility. Gold and silver are highly vulnerable to short-covering, though we expect the style of these moves to beshort, sharp and unsustained as the near-term fundamental picture remains negative.


6/18


COMMODITY CALLS


GRAINS

Despite old crop corn prices remaining resilient, new crop prices have fallen sharply in the past fortnight. December

2013 corn future prices have fallen 14% from the high in mid-June, resulting in prices closing below the psychological

barrier of 500USc/bu in the past week. Given the extent of these falls, we expect prices to stabilise near term, with

markets unlikely to fall further until there is more clarity on US corn yields. A main concern at present with the US

corn crop is its development is running behind in some areas. Slightly warm and drier conditions are needed, but such

weather forecasts are also unfriendly to prices. This is the exact scenario markets are grappling with. The two week

weather outlook in the US Mid West is for average or slightly higher temperatures while rainfall forecasts centred on

Iowa are for drier than normal conditions conditions all favourable for rapid growth. While forecasting skill is lower

further out, the weather outlook looks similar through to early August, but importantly, large spikes in temperature

are not expected. Overall, with the greatest chance that weather remains benign for the US corn crop over the next

six weeks, prices are still at risk of correcting further. We anticipate new crop corn prices will fall another 10% in

August as the current weather risk premium built into prices washes out of the market.

For wheat, supply dynamics look decidedly different. Uncertainties surrounding global supply have reduced

significantly in the last month, with winter wheat harvest well underway throughout the northern hemisphere. As a

result CBOT wheat prices have declined 8% in the last five weeks and are expected to remain under pressure as

harvest continues. In key US Hard Red Winter (HRW) producing states, harvest is well over half complete. More

broadly across the US, 57% of US winter wheat was harvested by 7 July, a slightly slower pace than the 5 year

average. In contrast, new wheat supply from the Black Sea region is hitting export markets slightly ahead of normal.

Over 25% of the Ukraines winter wheat crop has already been harvested, while Russias harvest in the south started

two weeks ahead of schedule. While export supply will increase from the region this month, peak supply will be most

apparent in August and September. This is also likely to coincide with markets becoming more comfortable with spring

wheat yields and the state of the US corn crop. Assuming global weather for grain crops remains benign, these factors

should all conspire to push wheat prices another 5-10% lower by September.

SOFTS

Sugar prices look set to remain under pressure in coming months as peak supply from Brazil and Australia hits the

market. But with prices testing close to 16USc/lb, the question facing market participants is how far will prices fall

below this in Q3? In our view, a further 10% fall cannot be ruled out, but a more dramatic decline looks unlikely. One

factor behind recent USD sugar price weakness has been the fall in the Brazilian Real (BRL). Dire sentiment towards

emerging market economies and commodities in the past two months has driven the BRL 11% lower against the US

dollar. With early signs the worst of the negative sentiment has passed, the same currency headwinds for sugar prices

are unlikely to be repeated in the coming two months. Similarly, the impact of an early and dry start to Brazils crush

this season will wane in the months ahead. Early season trends in Brazils centre south crush saw mills in the region

extract over 60% more recoverable sugar. But with full season growth likely to be only 15% y/y, this trend will fade,increasing the need for sugar to price itself more competitively against ethanol.

After a period of range bound trading, volatility in the cotton market should increase over the next quarter. Chances

of an upside breakout above 90USc/lb rest on a weather driven event. With the US crop already in less than ideal

condition in Texas, ongoing dryness and a further deterioration in yield prospects in the US is likely to be the main

avenue for such a catalyst. Aside from weather concerns, we expect ICE cotton futures to remain capped below

90USc/lb. At this level or higher, profitability for Chinese spinning mills importing cotton becomes marginal. Also if

prices persist above this level for a sustained period, cotton risks losing market share to synthetic fibres in some

countries. This would increase the risk of downgrades to global cotton demand for 2013-14, pushing ending stocks

higher. As to downside price risks, we have materially increased the chance that prices will fall below 80USc/lb in

coming months. Investor positioning is extreme, with CFTC net long spec positions up to 36% of open interest,

leaving risks prices will fall if this segment of the market decides to liquidate. Further we think a slowdown in Chinas

imports in the second half will reduce the existing global price distortions from Chinas cotton policies, providing lesssupport to global cotton prices.


7/18


FEATURE NOTE

COMMODITY PRICE REVISIONS

Weaker China demand and fragile investorsentiment has prompted a price revision

Biggest downgrades have been made toprecious metals and coal

Price will fall 9% in 2013 but rise 5% in 2014as investors look to re-enter off a low base

We have downgraded our commodity price forecasts by

an average 4.5% in 2013 and 5.5% in 2014 adjusting

for a weaker China demand outlook and in some cases,

an inelastic supply response. Abrupt selling by

investment funds has also prompted a lower short-term

price outlook, particularly for the precious metals. Ourbiggest downgrades have been to precious metals and

coal. In most cases, prices will decline further in the

coming quarter, before recovering in the fourth. We

now expect prices to fall an average 9% in 2013 and

rise 5% in 2014.

Commodity markets have struggled over the past three

months as confidence over the short term China

demand outlook deteriorates. Strangely, the data

hasnt been terrible, but the market appears to be

struggling to adjust to a more pragmatic leadership

regime. There is however growing risks that the hands-

off approach is creating additional stress, withtightening credit supply hamstringing key heavy

industry demand. This, along with recent downgrades

to our China GDP forecasts, is a key reason for our

more cautious price outlooks.

Another headwind has been heightened expectations of

tapering of US quantitative easing (QE). This has

manifested itself in a stronger US dollar (negative for

commodities) and a broad asset rotation out of US

bonds and global commodity markets into a better

returning US equity market. The improved

accompanying US data flow has largely been ignored

(by commodity markets), with the leverage being lostto the much more dominate, but poorer performing,

China market. We think this dynamic has largely played

out, but cant see it unwinding or reversing in the short

term.

Supply dynamics have surprised us on the negative

side, with loss-making industry participants unwilling to

wind-back or idle capacity. This is mainly showing up in

the coal and base metal markets, where pledged supply

agreements or government support is making it hard or

not necessary to reduce supply. Inventory levels have

also swelled. The biggest drag is being felt in coal,

nickel and steel. Visible copper stocks also look high,but reports of sharp draw-downs in hidden Chinese

ports stocks may be masking tighter conditions.

Our biggest downgrades have been made to precious

metals down an average 8% over 2013/14. The

strong negative sentiment swing in the past fewmonths has triggered additional technical selling in a

market which is always vulnerable to momentum

trading. Gold and silver are also playing a slightly

different tune to other commodities, much more

sensitive to the asset rotation out of safe-haven US

bond markets and the liquidation of large exchange

traded fund positions. We still see short term weakness

in prices down to the mid USD1,100/oz range, but

expect prices to rebound back towards the

USD1,450/oz range by mid 2015.

Our other big downgrades are in coal and nickel down

an average 7% over the next two years. The coalmarket is being hamstrung by weaker Chinese demand

and stronger Chinese supply. The additional rub, is

inelastic high cost Australian coal supply, which is

ramping up, rather than winding-down, output in a bid

to leverage a flat unit cost structure. Nickel continues

to feel the brunt of substitution to Chinese Nickel Pig

Iron and excess stainless steel supply. US oil is one

market we have upgraded as better domestic demand

and easing supply bottlenecks trigger a firmer view.

FIGURE 9. COMMODITY PRICE FORECASTS

Calendar Year - Avg 2012 2013F 2014F 2015F 2016F

Copper USD/lb 3.61 3.33 3.60 3.27 2.90

Aluminium USD/lb 0.92 0.84 0.91 1.00 1.0

Lead USD/lb 0.94 0.97 1.02 1.08 1.04

Nickel USD/lb 7.95 6.96 7.69 7.89 7.78

Zinc USD/lb 0.88 0.86 0.97 1.04 1.03

Gold USD/oz 1669 1367 1355 1455 1510

Silver USD/oz 31.2 23.1 22.8 25.3 27.0

Platinum USD/oz 1552 1469 1525 1646 1653

WTI Crude USD/bbl 94 97 108 101 93

Brent Crude USD/bbl 112 106 111 106 98

Iron Ore USD/t 129 126 123 118 113

Coking Coal USD/t 210 157 166 179 180

Thermal Coal USD/t 95 85 90 98 10

Change in forecasts 2012 2013F 2014F 2015F 2016F

Copper % - -3.8 -3.7 -1.1 -

Aluminium % - -5.2 -5.1 - -0.1

Lead % - 0.0 - -

Nickel % - -8.1 -6.8 -4.9 -3.7

Zinc % - -3.6 -2.5 -2.5 -0.7

Gold % - -5.5 -7.4 -7.1 0.5

Silver % - -8.1 -10.4 -9.0 -0.7

Platinum % - -6.7 -9.7 -3.7 -0.9

WTI Crude % - 1.1 4.7 4.5 1.2

Brent Crude % - -2.2 -1.8 - -

Iron Ore % - -5.6 -3.7 -2.6 -0.

Coking Coal % - -5.3 -10.1 -4.0 -0.7

Thermal Coal % - -5.7 -9.3 -6.3 -3.5

Average -4.5 -5.5 -3.7 -0.9

3

4

-

2

Source: Bloomberg, ANZ Commodity Strategy


8/18


FEATURE NOTE

INDONESIAN WHEAT IMPORTS TO JUMP

Indonesian wheat import volumes to surpriseon the upside over the next 12 months

A widening price disparity between rice andwheat, the curbing of flour imports and high

food inflation in Indonesia will drive above

trend import growth

Australia will see another record year ofwheat exports to Indonesia, with volumes

forecast to reach 5 million tonnes (mt) per

annum for the first time

Wheat imports by Indonesia, the worlds second ranked

importer by volume, are set to accelerate sharply. Weforecast Indonesian wheat imports to jump 15% y/y,

implying volume growth of around 1mt over the next

12 months. For Australia, we expect this to mean

another record year for wheat exports to Indonesia

hitting 5mt per annum for the first time. Factors driving

this stronger than normal growth include:

a widening price disparity between rice and wheat; the curbing of flour imports by Indonesia; high food (non-cereal) CPI and fuel inflation inIndonesia;

and new domestic flour milling capacity.A widening price differential between Indonesian rice

and Australian wheat in H2 2013 will be a key catalyst

in driving wheat demand in Indonesia. Seasonal factors

should keep Indonesian rice prices supported, while

global wheat prices are expected to still fall further

between now and the Australian harvest as northern

hemisphere grain supply increases. We expect to see

the price spread widen to USD500/t by late Q3, a level

more consistent with the first half of 2012.

Current high food inflation in Indonesia also favours

higher wheat consumption in the months ahead. FoodCPI is running at 11%, driven by rising fruit, vegetable,

fish and meat prices. However price rises in

cereal/grain CPI have been more subdued (Figure 10).

Further, petrol retail prices increased by 44% and

diesel prices by 22% on the 22 June. This is the first

increase in transport fuel prices in Indonesia in five

years. With higher fuel prices and non-cereal food CPI

sweeping through the Indonesian economy, consumers

are likely to be particularly cost conscious, favouring

consumption of wheat noodles at the expense of other

food items.

A continuation of the higher tariff on flour imports intoIndonesia is expected to continue to curb wheat flour

imports over the next 12 months. In December 2012,

Indonesia imposed a temporary 20% safeguard duty on

imported wheat flour lasting for 200 days, with expiry

on 20 June. While no official announcement has beenmade, the expectation is the government will

indefinitely extend the higher tariff.

This will be a positive for Australian grain demand, as

the measure has effectively shut a small, but

significant, supplier of Black Sea wheat into Australias

largest wheat market. In the three years prior to 2013,

Turkeys flour exports to Indonesia were the equivalent

of 45,000 tonnes of wheat exports per month. Since

the implementation of the tariff, Turkeys flour imports

have been negligible to Indonesia.

Consistent with an expected large jump in wheat

imports, the Indonesian flour milling industry is adding

new capacity. Over the course of 2013, the completion

of four new flour mills is expected to add 25% to

current capacity. This large increase in capacity will

keep mill utilisation rates under pressure in Indonesia.

Even with our forecast of Indonesia importing 7.5mt of

wheat over the next 12 months, utilisation rates for the

Indonesian flour mill industry are likely to fall back to

66% of installed capacity, a 4 percentage point decline

compared with 2012-13.

First published as a Commodity Insight on July 2

Indonesia wheat imports to jump sharply

FIGURE 10. JUNE INDONESIAN FOOD CPI

(5)

0

5

10

15

20

25

Fruits

Vegetables

Food

Meat

Fish

Eggs/Milk

Cereals

Fats/Oils

y/y %

S

ource: CEIC, ANZ Research.


9/18


TRADE IDEAS

OIL (initiated 2nd July 2013)

We think US WTI markets will continue to outperform

Brent near-term and have initiated a long WTI, short

Brent spread trade, targeting an USD0.50/bbl

premium. While both contracts tend to move in a

similar direction, an uneven global economic recovery

and divergent demand trends with the US economy

improving and uncertainty in China should continue

to support a better performing US crude market. We

also expect market participants to continue to

factoring in for declining US stocks at Cushing, as

domestic transportation bottlenecks are alleviated

from increased pipeline and refinery capacity nearby.

Long WTI (CL2), short Brent (CO2)

Entry: Buy WTI @ USD98/bblSell Brent @ USD103/bbl

Target: +USD0.50/bbl

Stop Loss: -USD10/bbl

Timeframe: 3 months

FIGURE 11. US CUSHING STOCKS & WTI PRICE

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

10 11 12 13

70

75

80

85

90

95

100

105

110

115

Cushing Oil Stocks Oil Price (RHS)

mbbls USD/bbl

Sources: Bloomberg, ANZ Commodity Strategy

IRON ORE (initiated 10th July 2013)

We think iron ore prices will fall near-term, tracking

Baltic Capesize freight rates with a 1-2 week lag. The

capesize market is expected to fall after a strong run

rate in June up 60%. A slowdown in seasonal

demand is already being reflected in the freight rates,

which is down 9% since the beginning of July. We arealso cautious on Chinas steel market, with a little too

much steel output produced in the first quarter -

showing up in high steel inventories. This means we

may see sightly weaker steel output in the second half

as domestic steel mills run down steel stocks.

Short Nov13 Iron ore Swap (TIOX3)

Entry: Sell current @ USD117/t

Target: USD110/t

Stop Loss: USD120/t

Timeframe: 2 months

FIGURE 12. PHYSICAL IRON ORE PRICE & BALTICCAPESIZE INDEX

105

110

115

120

125

130

135

J F M A M J J A

1,200

1,300

1,400

1,500

1,600

1,700

1,800

1,900

2,000

2,100

2,200

Iron Ore Price Baltic Capesize Index (RHS)

USD/t Points

9%



10/18


COMMODITY PRICES (% CHANGE)

LONDON METALS EXCHANGE (UDS/lb, USD/t) LONDON METALS EXCHANGE (kt)

Aluminium 0.93 2,059 0.9 8.5 9.6 (7.0) (0.9) (1.2)

(4.1)

(14.7)

(1.7) (1.7)

(5.3) (8.7) (10.8) (22.9) (7.8)

(2.0)

(0.1) (3.8) (3.8)

(1.2) (1.7) (3.0) (6.6) (1.2) (4.0) (4.6) (4.0)

(13.5)

(0.5) (6.1)

(4.3) (16.3)

(2.3) (3.2) (0.4) (0.5)(1.5)

(6.3) (11.6)

(6.9) (4.0) (8.7) (6.9)

(14.8) (16.6)

(2.1) (2.9) (11.5)

(0.6) (1.3) (5.9)

(0.2)

(6.9) (8.5)

(1.8) (10.5)

(13.1) (10.4)

(10.7) (11.3) (13.6) (12.4)

(10.9) (8.2) (18.5) (17.9) (18.5) (12.0) (11.3)

(2.5) (2.5) (3.7) (16.1) (3.7)

(1.5) (2.5)

(4.6)

(3.9) (15.4) (15.7) (38.3) (15.7)

(3.1) (15.2) (16.4) (36.5) (16.4) (1.8) (12.1) (6.7) (0.5)

(4.2) (14.5) (14.9) (36.3) (14.9) (2.2) (10.3) (8.0) (2.1)

(2.0) (3.0)

(5.3) (14.3)

(5.3)

(3.6)

(12.1) (16.3) (2.8)

(2.8) (4.0) (13.8) (25.7) (3.5)

(1.9) (1.2) (21.8) (3.9) (6.0) (18.0) (35.4) (3.6)

(3.0) (0.4) (19.2) (2.2) (7.2) (9.8) (2.2)

(15.2) (17.7) (17.7) (27.3) (15.2) (12.7)

(2.1)

0.9 Aluminium 5,148 1.2 5.7 2.3

Copper 3.72 8,208 2.0 8.0 8.7 3.8 Copper 387 17.5 57.4 57.4 22.2 20.8

Nickel 8.28 18,258 4.4 14.5 16.4 7.4 Nickel 151 5.1 15.5 29.2 60.0 6.3

Zinc 0.97 2,143 7.9 15.1 15.3 2.0 4.6 Zinc 1,197 2.6 21.4 42.5

Lead 1.09 2,409 4.8 9.5 26.6 12.2 4.0 Lead 290

Tin 11.26 24,829 0.8 22.1 36.4 6.2 Tin 13 4.5 13.4 13.4 46.0 4.7

SHANGHAI (RMB/t) SHANGHAI (kt)

Copper 58,900 2.4 5.3 8.1 3.4 Copper 197 2.3 25.9 9.6

Aluminium 14,880 Aluminium 425 30.6 49.8

Zinc 16,200 2.9 6.9 8.2 1.3 3.2 Zinc 323 3.9 7.5 1.1 3.9

Lead 14,975 1.2 0.0 1.4

COMEX (USD/t) COMEX

Copper 8,246 1.9 8.7 9.3 2.4 Copper 74.5 4.5 31.1 53.0 5.3

OIL & GAS - US DOE (mbbls)

Gold (USD/oz) 1,678 1.2 4.1 0.1 Crude 372 3.3 9.6 3.3Gold (AUD/oz) 1,626 3.1 6.6 1.3 1.6 Gasoline 234 3.7 17.3 12.6 1.0 3.7

Silver (USD/oz) 31.8 4.8 0.0 13.5 4.9 Distillate 130 4.5 9.9 4.3 4.5

Platinum (USD/oz) 1,736 8.6 12.5 23.2 4.4 12.8 Refinery utilisation (%) 84.2 1.7

Palladium (USD/oz) 763 11.0 24.6 29.9 6.8 8.3

CBOT (US/bu)

OIL & GAS (USD/bbl) Wheat 762 2.1 15.2 1.9

WTI Cushing (US) 96.6 3.8 14.4 3.5 5.2 Corn 723 4.1 12.5 6.2

Brent Crude (UK) 116.7 4.5 9.3 4.0 4.3 Soybeans 1,488 7.4 20.8 8.8

Tapis (Asia) 122.9 5.1 8.8 4.2 0.1 7.7 Soybean Oil (US/lb) 52.5 5.7 7.9 0.1 5.1

Gasoil 0.5% (Sing) 133.7 5.2 6.7 5.1 1.3 9.2 Soybean Meal (USD/st) 437 6.7 35.9 9.5

Fuel Oil 180cst (Sing USD/t) 654.3 3.2 5.4 6.9 KCBOT (US/bu)

THERMAL COAL (FOB USD/t) HRW 810 1.1 11.8 0.7

Newcastle 77.7 -13.6 MGE (US/bu)

Richards Bay 73.4 HRS 845 0.5 0.4 0.4

Qinhuangdao 99.5 ASX (AUD/t)

Wheat 297 6.1 41.4 5.3

EURONEXT Liffe (/t)

COKING COAL (USD/t) Wheat 211 2.2 9.2 26.0 2.5

Australia FOB 134.3 EURONEXT Paris (EUR/t)

China CIF 144.5 Wheat 242 23.1

India CIF 149.3 Corn 230 11.9

STEEL (USD/t) Rapeseed 470 3.0 12.4 5.4

HRC US (Short ton) 583 0.0 1.3 0.0 ICE Winnipeg (CAD/t)

HRC Russia 583 9.4 14.2 5.0 9.4 Canola 638 9.5 6.5 5.8 19.5 10.3

HRC China 603 8.6 13.2 7.6 8.6

OTHER METALS

Uranium (USD/lb) 43.8 1.2 1.7 ICE NY (US/lb)

Alumina (USD/t) 346 4.2 6.7 9.8 8.3 4.2 Sugar #11 18.2

Cobalt (USD/lb) 12.8 7.6 11.1 Coffee 142

Molybdenum (USD/lb) 11.4 3.4 Cocoa 2,227 0.2 0.3

Coke (USD/t) 280 Cotton 82 9.3 17.0 7.5 8.9

Iron Ore Spot (USDt) 155 27.5 35.0 Security 7.0 EURONEXT Liffe (USDD/t)

Sugar 497

Coffee 2,069 8.3 7.3 10.2 6.2

Baltic Freight Rate 740 9.5 Cocoa (/t) 1,452 1.8 2.1

Baltic Capesize 1,484 7.2 23.3 2.5 MDEX (MYR/t)

Baltic Panamax 657 Crude Palm Oil 2,547 5.6 6.3 6.4

AUD/USD - Aussie 1.032 S&P 500 1,512 3.5 8.4 7.8 12.0 3.1

NZD/USD - Kiwi 0.840 0.0 2.6 2.9 0.6 1.4 CRB Index 303 3.0 3.9 3.0

DXY - USD trade weighted 79.7 1.4 S&P GSCI Agri Index 457 3.3 4.0 4.1

EUR/USD - Euro 1.352 3.5 5.9 9.4 2.0 3.6 LME Metals Index 3,583 2.5 10.0 12.0 2.7

USD/JPY - Yen 93.6 6.6 17.1 19.4 21.5 7.3 Market Volatility Index (VIX 13

12 MTH1 MTH 3 MTH 6 MTH YTDSPOT6 MTH 12 MTH YTD KEY INDICESKEY CURRENCIES SPOT 1 MTH 3 MTH

12 MTH YTD

FREIGHT SPOT 1 MTH 3 MTH 6 MTH 12 MTH YTD

SPOT 1 MTH 3 MTH 6 MTH

6 MTH 12 MTH YTD

SOFTS/PALM

OTHER SPOT 1 MTH 3 MTH

6 MTH 12 MTH YTD

ENERGY SPOT 1 MTH 3 MTH 6 MTH 12 MTH YTD

AGRICULTURE SPOT 1 MTH 3 MTH

12 MTH YTD

PRECIOUS METALS SPOT 1 MTH 3 MTH 6 MTH 12 MTH YTD

SPOT 1 MTH 3 MTH 6 MTH6 MTH 12 MTH YTD INVENTORIESBASE METALS SPOT 1 MTH 3 MTH

(2.1) (3.0) (15.7) (21.4) (2.7)

(5.0)

(0.4) (19.2) (8.9) (54.4) (6.3) (13.1) (1.2)

(29.3) (49.8)

(8.4) (10.9) (21.8) (20.7) (59.4) (11.0) (19.1)

(1.8) (0.8) (2.4) (4.4) (1.4)

(0.5) (3.8)

(1.0) (1.3) (3.2) (0.8) (5.5) (10.7)

(4.4)

(2.9) (29.7) (12.5) (26.2) (3.0)

Note: Prices as of 5 July 2013

Sources: Bloomberg, globalCOAL, FIS, ANZ Commodity Strategy


11/18


CFTC DATA

SPOT 1 WK 1 MTH 3 MTH 6 MTH 12 MTH SPOT 1 WK 1 MTH 3 MTH 6 MTH 12 MTH

GOLD (t) WTI CRUDE OIL (mbbls)

Long 500 492 524 602 619 577 Long 424 402 394 391 352 334

Short 403 390 352 258 141 150 Short 92 93 108 99 107 134

Net Position 97 102 172 344 478 427 Net Position 332 309 286 292 245 201

Open Interest 2,416 2,161 2,152 2,012 1,851 2,085 Open Interest 1,770 1,809 1,745 1,732 1,473 1,433

SILVER(t) NATURAL GAS (1000 mmbtu)

Long 5,682 5,346 5,111 5,678 6,041 4,559 Long 3,125 3,145 3,464 3,619 2,447 2,434

Short 4,800 5,090 4,652 4,654 1,160 2,736 Short 4,131 3,978 4,081 4,154 4,085 3,360

Net Position 882 256 459 1,025 4,880 1,823 Net Position (1,005) (832) (617) (535) (1,638) (926)

(322) (358) (149) (307) (150)

(207) (91) (120) (74) (97) (10) (1,077) (1,391)

(333) (406) (328) (398) (344) (106)

(200) (157) (136) (195) (173) (149)

(1,127) (493) (651) (405) (529)


COPPER(kt) RBOB GASOLINE (m gallons)

Long 509 532 440 553 516 429 Long 2,964 2,914 3,383 4,614 4,169 3,542

Short 831 890 589 860 410 579 Short 1,405 1,382 1,515 1,083 1,207 669

Net Position 106 Net Position 1,559 1,532 1,868 3,530 2,962 2,872


SPOT 1 WK 1 MTH 3 MTH 6 MTH 12 MTH SPOT 1 WK 1 MTH 3 MTH 6 MTH 12 MTH

CBOT WHEAT (m bu) ICE SUGAR(kt)

Non-Com Long 547 551 549 585 518 609 Non-Com Long 11,494 11,210 11,399 10,299 9,268 8,700

Non-Com Short 754 642 669 659 615 442 Non-Com Short 10,910 11,221 12,476 11,690 6,457 4,163

Net Non-Com Position 167 Net Non-Com Position 584 2,811 4,538

Index Long 894 899 949 924 1,069 1,114 Index Long 16,117 16,544 16,951 16,510 14,969 14,020

Index Short 124 113 180 183 150 127 Index Short 1,228 1,601 1,180 935 1,190 1,486

Net Index Position 770 786 769 741 919 988 Net Index Posit ion 14,890 14,943 15,771 15,575 13,779 12,534


CBOT CORN (m bu) ICE COFFEE (kt)

Non-Com Long 1,620 1,771 1,870 1,851 1,526 1,416 Non-Com Long 708 726 726 761 622 477

Non-Com Short 1,494 1,206 1,109 1,057 615 393 Non-Com Short 1,041 1,132 1,054 1,159 966 583

Net Non-Com Position 126 565 761 793 911 1,023 Net Non-Com Position

Index Long 2,115 2,137 2,195 2,243 2,036 2,153 Index Long 988 989 1,011 993 829 799

Index Short 223 215 294 313 176 238 Index Short 40 41 59 63 42 122

Net Index Position 1,892 1,922 1,900 1,929 1,860 1,914 Net Index Position 948 948 953 930 787 677


CBOT SOYBEANS (m bu) ICE COCOA (kt)

Non-Com Long 346 365 376 327 317 291 Non-Com Long 654 686 737 625 522 379

Non-Com Short 546 522 512 521 490 440 Non-Com Short 268 256 250 449 184 301

Net Non-Com Position Net Non-Com Position 386 429 487 175 338 78

Index Long 777 813 762 747 899 1,000 Index Long 354 353 352 369 372 393


Net Index Position 687 719 622 583 671 771 Net Index Position 345 343 335 329 368 343


CBOT SOYBEAN OIL (kt) ICE COTTON (k bales)

Non-Com Long 2,975 3,000 2,989 3,184 2,819 3,316 Non-Com Long 8,260 8,261 7,911 10,359 6,918 6,049

Non-Com Short 4,103 3,493 3,640 3,589 3,347 2,408 Non-Com Short 839 770 1,271 1,096 2,225 3,825

Net Non-Com Position 909 Net Non-Com Position 7,421 7,491 6,640 9,263 4,692 2,224

Index Long 2,602 2,549 2,745 2,678 3,030 2,755 Index Long 7,513 7,512 7,799 8,265 7,464 7,824


Net Index Position 2,502 2,451 2,444 2,378 2,824 2,290 Net Index Position 7,277 7,317 7,436 7,332 6,927 7,447


AGRICULTURE SOFTSACTUAL ACTUAL

ENERGYMETALSACTUAL ACTUAL

Note: Data as of 2 July 2013

Sources: Bloomberg, globalCOAL, FIS, ANZ Commodity Strategy


12/18


CALENDAR HEATMAP

CHINA UNIT PERIOD MARKET ACTUAL PREVIOUS DATE

Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) % y/y APR 6.2 0.4 5.7 16-May

Exports % y/y JUN 3.7 -3.1 1.0 10-Jul

Imports % y/y JUN 6.0 -0.7 -0.3 10-Jul

Producer Price Index (PPI) % y/y JUN -2.6 -2.7 -2.9 9-Jun

Consumer Price Index (CPI) % y/y JUN 2.5 2.7 2.1 9-Jun

New Yuan Loans RMB bn MAY 815 667 793 9-Jun

Money Supply - M2 % y/y MAY 15.9 15.8 16.1 9-Jun

Fixed Asset Investment (FAI) % YTD y/y MAY 20.5 20.4 20.6 9-Jun

Retail Sales % y/y MAY 12.9 12.9 12.8 9-Jun

Industrial Production % y/y MAY 9.4 9.2 9.3 9-Jun

Leading Index % m/m APR - 99.6 99.6 1-Jul

PMI Manufacturing Points JUN 50.1 50.1 50.8 1-Jul

US UNIT PERIOD MARKET ACTUAL PREVIOUS DATE

FOMC Rate Decision % MAY 0.25 0.25 0.25 2-May

GDP % q/q 1Q 2.4 1.8 2.4 30-May

Vehicle Sales (Total) '000,000s JUN 15.5 15.9 15.2 4-Jun

Retail Sales (Less Autos) % y/y MAY 0.3 0.3 0.0 13-Jun

Producer Price Index (PPI) % y/y MAY 1.4 1.7 0.6 14-Jun

Industrial Production % m/m MAY 0.2 0.0 -0.4 14-Jun

Uni of Michigan Confidence Points JUN 84.5 82.7 84.5 14-Jun

NY Empire Manufacturing % y/y JUN 0.0 7.8 -1.4 17-Jun

Consumer Price Index (CPI) % y/y MAY 1.4 1.4 1.1 18-Jun

Building Permits '000s MAY 975 974 1005 18-Jun

Housing Starts '000s MAY 950 914 856 18-Jun

Philadelphia Fed % y/y JUN -2.0 12.5 -5.2 21-Jun

Leading Indicators % y/y MAY 0.2 0.1 0.8 21-Jun

Durable Goods Orders % y/y MAY 3.0 3.6 3.6 25-Jun

Dallas Fed % y/y JUN -1.5 6.5 -10.5 25-Jun

New Home Sales '000s MAY 460 476 466 26-Jun

Chicago PMI Points JUN 55.0 51.6 58.7 28-Jun

ISM Manufacturing Points JUN 50.5 50.9 49.0 2-Jul

Factory Orders % y/y MAY 2.0 2.1 1.3 3-Jul

Change in Nonfarm Payrolls '000s JUN 165 195 195 5-Jul

EURO-ZONE UNIT PERIOD MARKET ACTUAL PREVIOUS DATE

GDP % y/y 1Q -0.1 -0.2 -0.6 15-May

Economic Confidence Points MAY 89.4 89.4 88.6 30-May

Consumer Price Index (CPI) % y/y MAY 1.1 1.2 1.0 31-May

Industrial Production % y/y APR -1.2 -0.6 -1.4 12-Jun

Zew Survey (Econ Sentiment) Points JUN - 30.6 27.6 18-JunUnemployment Rate % y/y MAY 12.3 12.2 12.1 1-Jul

PMI Manufacturing Points JUN 48.7 48.8 48.7 1-Jul

Retail Sales % y/y MAY -1.9 -1.0 -1.0 3-Jul

ECB Refinancing Rate % MAY 0.50 0.50 0.50 4-Jul

JAPAN UNIT PERIOD MARKET ACTUAL PREVIOUS DATE

Consumer Confidence Points MAY 44.7 45.7 44.5 10-Jun

GDP % QoQ 1Q 0.9 1.0 0.9 10-Jun

BoJ Target Rate % JUN 0.1 0.1 0.1 11-Jun

Machine Tool Orders % y/y MAY -7.4 -7.4 18-Jun

Industrial Production % y/y MAY -2.4 -1.0 -3.4 28-Jun

Tankan Lge Manufacturers Index Points 2Q 3.0 4.0 -8.0 1-Jul

Vehicle Sales % y/y JUN - -15.8 -7.3 1-JulLeading Index Points MAY 101.2 110.5 107.7 5-Jul Note: Blue is stronger than expected (+5%), orange is weaker than expected release (-5%).Source: Bloomberg, ANZ Commodity Strategy


13/18


FORWARD CURVES

2,350

2,400

2,450

2,500

2,550

2,600

2,650

1M3M 6M 1Y 2Y

MYR/t PALM OIL

1,750

1,800

1,850

1,900

1,950

2,000

2,0502,100

2,150

2,200

2,250

1M3M6M 1Y 2Y 3Y

USD/t ZINC

76

78

80

82

84

86

88

1M3M6M 1Y 2Y 3Y

US/lb COTTON

13,000

13,500

14,000

14,500

15,000

15,500

16,00016,500

17,000

17,500

18,000

1M3M6M 1Y 2Y 3Y

USD/t NICKEL

16.0

16.5

17.0

17.5

18.0

18.5

19.0

19.5

20.020.5

1M3M6M 1Y 2Y 3Y

US/lb RAW SUGAR

80.0

80.5

81.0

81.5

82.0

82.5

83.0

83.5

84.0

84.5

85.0

1M 3M 6M

Points USD DXY

90

92

94

96

98

100

102

104

106

108

1M3M6M 1Y 2Y 3Y

USD/bbl BRENT

1,300

1,350

1,400

1,450

1,500

1,550

1,600

1M 3M 6M 1Y

USD/oz PLATINUM

650

670

690

710

730

750

770

790

1M3M 6M 1Y 2Y

US/bu CHICAGO WHEAT

1,700

1,800

1,900

2,000

2,100

2,200

2,300

2,400

1M3M6M 1Y 2Y 3Y

USD/t ALUMINIUM

82

84

8688

90

92

94

96

98100

102

104

1M3M6M 1Y 2Y 3Y

USD/bbl WTI

105

110

115

120

125

130

135

140

1M 3M 6M 1Y

USD/t IRON ORE

6,500

6,700

6,900

7,100

7,300

7,500

7,700

7,900

8,100

8,300

1M3M6M 1Y 2Y 3Y

USD/t COPPER

1,200

1,250

1,300

1,350

1,400

1,450

1,500

1M3M 6M 1Y 2Y

US/bu SOYBEANS

670

680

690

700

710

720

730

740

750

760

770

1M 3M 6M 1Y

USD/oz PALLADIUM

1,200

1,250

1M 3M 6M

CNY/t COKING COAL

TBC

110

120

130

140

150

160

170

180

1M3M6M 1Y 2Y 3Y

USD/lb COFFEE

450

500

550

600

650

700

1M3M6M 1Y 2Y 3Y

US/bu CORN

3,100

3,200

3,300

3,400

3,500

3,600

3,700

3,800

3,900

4,0004,100

1M 3M 6M 1Y

CNY/t CHINA REBAR

18.0

20.0

22.0

24.0

26.0

28.0

30.0

32.0

1M3M6M 1Y 2Y 3Y

USD/oz SILVER

2,150

2,200

2,250

2,300

2,350

2,400

1M3M 6M 1Y 2Y

USD/t COCOA

1,100

1,200

1,300

1,400

1,500

1,600

1,700

1,800

1M3M6M 1Y 2Y 3Y

USD/oz GOLD

2,000

2,050

2,100

2,150

2,200

2,250

2,300

2,350

2,400

1M3M6M 1Y 2Y 3Y

USD/t LEAD

767880828486889092949698

100102

1M 3M 6M 1Y

USD/t NEWC THERMAL COAL

Note: Prices as of 5 July 2013Sources: Bloomberg, globalCOAL, FIS, ANZ Commodity Strategy


14/18


MOVING AVERAGES

1,700

1,800

1,900

2,000

2,100

2,200

2,300

2,400

2,500

2,600

Jan-10Oct-10 Jul-11 Apr-12 Jan-13

ZINCUSD/t

70

80

90

100

110

120

130

140


THERMAL COALUSD/t

6,000

6,500

7,000

7,500

8,000

8,500

9,000

9,500

10,000

Jan-10Oct-10 Jul-11 Apr-12Jan-13

COPPERUSD/t

1,600

1,800

2,000

2,200

2,400

2,600

2,800

3,000


LEADUSD/t

1,100

1,300

1,500

1,700

1,900


GOLDUSD/oz

400

450

500

550

600

650

700

750

800

850

Jan-10 Oct-10 Jul-11 Apr-12

PALLADIUMUSD/oz

12

18

24

30

36

42

48

Jan-10 Oct-10 Jul-11 Apr-12 Jan-13

SILVERUSD$/oz

100

140

180

220

260

300


USD/lb COFFEE

70

80

90

100

110

120

130


BRENTUSD/bbl

350

400

450

500

550

600

650

700

750

800

850


CORNUS/bu

1,900

2,100

2,300

2,500

2,7002,900

3,100

3,300

3,500

3,700


COCOAUSD/t

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

200

220


COTTONUS/lb

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

1,600

1,800


SOYBEANSUS/bu

80

100

120

140

160

180

200


USD/t IRON ORE

400

500

600

700

800

900

1,000


WHEATUS/bu

3,200

3,400

3,600

3,800

4,000

4,200

4,400

4,600

4,800

5,000

Jan-10Oct-10 Jul-11Apr-12Jan-13

USD/t HOT ROLLED STEEL

100

150

200

250

300

350


COKING COALUSD/t

70

75

80

85

90

95

100

105

110

115


WTIUSD/bbl

2,000

2,400

2,800

3,200

3,600

4,000


PALM OILMYR/t

15

17

19

21

23

25

27

29

31

33

35


US/lb SUGAR

1,600

1,800

2,000

2,200

2,400

2,600

2,800


USD/t ALUMINIUM

12,000

14,000

16,000

18,000

20,000

22,000

24,000

26,000

28,000

30,000


NICKELUSD/t

72

74

76

78

80

82

84

86


USD DXYPoints

1,300

1,400

1,500

1,600

1,700

1,800

1,900


PLATINUMUSD/oz

Note: Prices as of 5 July 2013Sources: Bloomberg, globalCOAL, FIS, ANZ Commodity Strategy


15/18


ANZ PRICE FORECASTS

ANZ FORECAST TABLE

COMMODITY Unit Mar-13 Jun-13 Sep-13 Dec-13 Mar-14 Jun-14 Sep-14 2013F 2014F 2015F 2016F LT

BASE METALS

Aluminium USD/lb 0.85 0.78 0.82 0.85 0.88 0.91 0.93 0.85 0.99 1.02 1.03 1.0

Copper USD/lb 3.41 3.05 3.25 3.40 3.60 3.65 3.65 3.40 3.60 2.97 2.85 2.80

Nickel USD/lb 7.53 6.25 6.60 6.90 7.40 7.90 8.00 6.90 8.00 7.85 7.70 7.50

Zinc USD/lb 0.85 0.82 0.85 0.88 0.92 0.99 1.01 0.88 1.03 1.04 1.02 1.00

Lead USD/lb 0.95 0.93 0.95 0.97 1.00 1.02 1.05 0.97 1.07 1.07 1.02 1.00

Aluminium USD/t 1,880 1,720 1,810 1,870 1,940 2,010 2,050 1,870 2,180 2,250 2,270 2,200

Copper USD/t 7,510 6,730 7,160 7,500 7,940 8,050 8,050 7,500 7,940 6,550 6,280 6,170

Nickel USD/t 16,590 13,780 14,550 15,210 16,310 17,420 17,640 15,210 17,640 17,310 16,970 16,530

Zinc USD/t 1,860 1,820 1,870 1,940 2,030 2,180 2,230 1,940 2,270 2,290 2,250 2,200

Lead USD/t 2,090 2,040 2,090 2,140 2,200 2,250 2,310 2,140 2,360 2,360 2,250 2,200

PRECIOUS METALS

Gold USD/oz 1,599 1,235 1,150 1,300 1,330 1,360 1,380 1,300 1,400 1,500 1,500 1,450

Platinum USD/oz 1,572 1,327 1,390 1,450 1,490 1,530 1,560 1,450 1,590 1,680 1,625 1,480

Palladium USD/oz 772 659 690 735 770 800 820 735 825 810 765 700

Silver USD/oz 28.5 19.7 18.5 21.6 22.3 22.8 23.2 21.6 23.9 26.5 27.0 26.5

ENERGY

WTI NYMEX USD/bbl 98 97 100 105 107 109 110 105 108 97 93 90

Dated Brent USD/bbl 109 102 103 105 108 112 114 105 112 102 98 95

Uranium USD/lb 42 40 40 42 44 46 48 42 50 62 65 7

BULKS

Iron ore Spot (CIF China, fines) USD/t 137 117 112 120 123 125 122 120 120 116 115 100

Iron ore Contract (FOB Aust, fines) USD/t 138 125 105 104 110 111 112 104 110 110 105 90

Coking coal - Premium hard USD/t 165 172 145 145 155 165 170 145 175 180 180 175

Coking coal - Semi-soft USD/t 117 119 105 105 112 120 124 105 128 133 134 130

Low Val PCI coal USD/t 124 141 116 115 120 127 130 115 133 138 139 135

Newc Thermal Coal (Spot) USD/t 88 78 82 86 88 91 92 86 95 103 105 9

Newc Thermal Coal (JPY Contract) USD/t 115 95 95 95 95 92 92 95 92 98 105 9

OTHER METALS

Alumina (contract) USD/t 234 215 226 234 242 251 256 234 273 281 284 276

Molybdenum USD/lb 10.8 10.4 10.8 11.0 11.5 12.0 12.5 11.0 13.0 14.5 14.8 15.0

Cobalt USD/lb 12.0 14.6 14.5 14.5 14.8 14.9 15.1 14.5 15.2 15.6 15.8 15.0

AGRICULTURE

Corn US/bu 711 600 527 473 544 551 491 578 520 550 550 550

Wheat US/bu 742 699 632 599 638 637 680 668 658 661 661 661

Soybeans US/bu 1,437 1,389 1,300 1,200 1,185 1,116 1,104 1,331 1,150 1,150 1,150 1,150

Cotton US/lb 90 93 83 87 90 88 88 88 90 92 95 95

Sugar US/lb 18 17 16 17 17 17 17 17 17 20 20 2

Palm Oil MYR/t 2,473 2,354 2,400 2,400 2,400 2,400 2,400 2,407 2,400 2,400 2,450 2,450

0

0

5

5

0

Note 1:

Base/precious metals, energy and bulk forecasts are end of period prices; Agriculture forecasts are average prices

Note 2: Historical data are actuals



16/18


ANZ CONTACTS

ANZ COMMODITY RESEARCH

Mark Pervan Global Head of Commodity Research +61 3 8655 9243 [email protected]

Paul Deane Senior Agricultural Economist +61 3 8655 9078 [email protected]

Natalie Rampono Commodity Strategist +61 3 8655 9258 [email protected]

Victor Thianpiriya Commodity Strategist +65 6681 8869 [email protected]

ANZ ASIA RESEARCH

Tim Riddell Head of Global Markets Research, Asia +65 6681 8718 [email protected]


17/18

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