commodities weekly tracker, 27th may 2013

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  • 7/30/2019 Commodities Weekly Tracker, 27th May 2013

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    Commodities & Currencies

    Weekly Tracker

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    Commodities Weekly Tracker

    ContentsReturns

    Non Agri Commodities Currencies Agri Commodities

    Non-Agri Commodities Gold Silver Copper Crude Oil

    Currencies DX, Euro, INR

    Agri Commodities Chana

    Black Pepper Turmeric Jeera Soybean Refine Soy Oil & CPO Sugar Kapas

    Monday | May 27, 2013

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    Commodities Weekly Tracker Monday | May 27, 2013

    3.6

    2.4

    1.71.4

    0.7

    (0.3)(0.7)

    (1.9)(2.0)

    (1.0)

    0.0

    1.0

    2.0

    3.0

    4.0Currencies Weekly Performance

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    Commodities Weekly Tracker Monday | May 27, 2013

    4.4

    3.0

    2.0

    0.7 0.6

    (0.1) (0.4)(0.9)

    (1.9)(2.0)

    (1.0)

    0.0

    1.0

    2.0

    3.0

    4.0

    Non-Agri Commodities Weekly Performance

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    *Weekly Performance for June contract, CPO, Cotton & Mentha Oil May Contract

    Commodities Weekly Tracker Monday | May 27, 2013

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    Commodities Weekly Tracker Monday | May 27, 2013

    GoldWeekly Price Performance Spot gold prices increased around 2 percent in the last week. The yellow metal

    touched a high of $1,414.25/oz in last week and closed at $1385.55/oz in last trading

    session of the week. In the Indian markets, prices ended on positive note in the prior week taking cues

    from spot gold prices and closed at Rs.26,406/10 gms on Friday after touching aweekly high of Rs. 26,677/10 gms. Depreciation in the Indian Rupee also supported anupside in the prices.

    ETF Performance Holdings in the SPDR Gold Trust, the world's largest gold-backed exchange-traded

    fund, declined by 2.1 percent to 1,016.16 tonnes as on 24th May 2013 from previouslevel of 1,038.41 tonnes as on 17th May 2013.

    Factors that influenced upside in gold prices Rise in risk aversion in the global market sentiments which led to increase in safe

    haven demand from the investors for the gold. Further, weakness in the DX alsosupported an upside in the prices.

    However, sharp upside in the prices was capped on account of expectations that USFederal Reserve will reduce its bond buying program.

    Outlook

    In the coming week we expect gold prices to trade on the positive note as the fall instock markets will increase the demand for safe haven. Further, weakness in the DXwill also support an upside in the yellow metal prices. However, sharp upside will becapped as a result of expectations of favorable economic data from US and Euro Zonecoupled with decline in SDPR gold holding shares which at lowest level in last fouryears. Depreciation in the Indian Rupee will support an upside in the prices on MCX.

    Weekly Technical Levels Spot Gold : Support 1,370/1,350 Resistance 1,400/1,425. (CMP: $1,392.30) Buy MCX Gold June between 26150-26200, SL 25770, Target 26780. (CMP: Rs

    26,427)

    1,350

    1,400

    1,450

    1,500

    1,550

    1,600

    1,650

    1,700

    1,750

    1,800

    25,500

    26,500

    27,500

    28,500

    29,500

    30,500

    31,500

    MCX and Comex Gold Price Performance

    MCX-Near Month Gold Futures -Rs/10 gms Comex Gold Futures -$/oz

    79.0

    80.0

    81.0

    82.0

    83.0

    84.0

    85.0

    1,350

    1,400

    1,450

    1,500

    1,550

    1,600

    1,650

    1,700

    Spot Gold Vs US Dollar Index

    Spot Gol d -$ /o z US Dol lar I nd ex

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    Commodities Weekly Tracker Monday | May 27, 2013

    SilverWeekly Price Performance Spot silver rose by 0.7 percent in the last week. The white metal prices

    touched a high of $23.30/oz in the last week and closed at $22.38/oz in lasttrade of the week.

    On the domestic front, prices increased by 1.5 percent taking cues fromdepreciation in the Indian Rupee and closed at Rs. 43,473/kg on Friday aftertouching a high of Rs.44,600/kg in the prior week.

    ETF Performance Holdings in the iShares Silver Trust, the world's largest silver-backed

    exchange-traded fund, declined by 2.24 percent to 10,022.95 tonnes as on24th May 2013 from previous level of 10,252.69 tonnes as on 17th May 2013.

    Factors that influenced upside in silver prices Rise in spot gold prices. Weakness in the DX. Further, favorable economic data from US and Euro Zone also acted as a

    positive factor for the prices. However, sharp upside in the prices was prevented as a result of mixed

    performance in the base metals group.

    Outlook

    In the coming week we expect spot silver prices to increase taking cues fromrise in spot gold prices coupled with upside in the base metal packs. Further,weakness in DX may also support an upside in the prices. Additionally,expectations of favorable economic data from US and Euro Zone will act as apositive factor for the prices. Depreciation in the Indian Rupee will support anupside in the prices on MCX.

    Weekly Technical Levels Spot Silver: Support 21.60/20.90 Resistance 23.0/23.60. (CMP:$22.58) Buy MCX Silver July between 42800-42900, SL 42000, Target - 44150. (CMP:

    Rs.43,494)

    22

    24

    26

    28

    30

    32

    42,000

    44,000

    46,000

    48,000

    50,000

    52,000

    54,000

    56,000

    58,00060,000

    MCX and Comex Silver Price Performance

    MCX-Near Month Si lve r Futures -Rs/ kg Comex Si lve r Futures -$ /oz

    79.0

    80.0

    81.0

    82.0

    83.0

    84.0

    85.0

    22.0

    24.0

    26.0

    28.0

    30.0

    32.0

    Spot Silver Vs US Dollar Index

    Spot Silver -$ /oz US Dollar Index

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    Commodities Weekly Tracker Monday | May 27, 2013

    CopperWeekly Price Performance Copper prices declined by 0.4 percent in the previous week. The red metal touched a

    weekly low of $7,215/tonne in the last week and closed at $7,283.25/tonne in the last

    trading session of the week. On the domestic front, prices gained by 0.5 percent on account of depreciation in the

    Indian Rupee and closed at Rs.407.85/kg on Friday after touching a high of Rs 420.5/ kgin the prior week.

    Copper Inventories LME copper inventories declined by 1.4 percent in the last week and stood at 621,175

    tonnes as on 24th May, 2013 as against 629,950 tonnes as on 17th May, 2013. Copper inventories in the warehouse monitored by the Shanghai fell by 7.2 percent

    and stood at 176,624 tonnes for the week ending on 24th May, 2013.

    Factors that influenced downside in the copper prices Weak global market sentiments coupled with unfavorable economic data from China. Additionally, US Federal Reserve Chairman Bernanke hinted at reducing a bond buying

    program exerted downside pressure. However, weakness in DX along with decline in LME and Shanghai copper inventories

    cushioned sharp fall in the prices. Further, favorable economic data from US and Euro Zone prevented downside in the

    prices.

    Outlook In the coming week we expect base metal price to trade on the positive note on the

    back of weakness in DX coupled with decline in the LME inventories. Further, expectations of favorable economic data from Euro Zone and US will also

    support an upside in the prices. Depreciation in the Indian Rupee will act as positive factor for the prices on the MCX.

    Weekly Technical Levels LME Copper: Support 7160/6960 Resistance 7510/7700. (CMP: $7283.25) Buy MCX Copper June between 400-402, SL 392, Target - 415. (CMP: Rs 406.90)

    365

    375

    385

    395

    405

    415

    425

    435

    445

    455

    6,800

    7,000

    7,200

    7,400

    7,600

    7,800

    8,000

    8,200

    8,400

    LME and MCX Copper Price Pe rformance

    LME Copper Future ($/tonne) MCX Near Month Copper Contract (Rs/kg)

    6,800

    7,000

    7,200

    7,400

    7,600

    7,800

    8,000

    8,200

    8,400

    318,000

    368,000418,000

    468,000

    518,000

    568,000

    618,000

    LME Copper v/s LME Inventory

    Copper LME Inventory (tonnes) LME Copper Future ($ / tonne)

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    Commodities Weekly Tracker Monday | May 27, 2013

    Crude OilWeekly Price Performance On a weekly basis, Nymex crude oil prices declined around 2.0 percent. On the domestic bourses, prices fell by 0.5 percent and closed at Rs.5,268/bbl

    on Friday after touching a low of Rs.5167/bbl in the last week. Depreciation inthe Indian Rupee restricted further fall in the prices on the MCX.

    US Energy Department Facts and Figures As per the US Energy Department (EIA) report, US crude oil inventories

    declined less than expected by 0.3 million barrels to 394.60 million barrels forthe week ending on 17th May 2013.

    Gasoline stocks increased by 3.0 million barrels to 220.70 million barrels andwhereas distillate stockpiles dropped by 1.1 million barrels to 118.80 millionbarrels for the last week.

    Factors that influenced downside in crude oil prices Expectations that US Federal Reserve will reduce its bond buying program. Additionally, less than expected decline in US crude oil inventories acted as a

    negative factor for the crude prices. Further, unfavorable manufacturing data from China and US also exerted

    downside pressure on the crude oil prices. However, sharp downside in the prices was cushioned as a result of fall in the

    jobless claims and rise in core durable goods orders from US coupled withpositive economic data from the Euro Zone.

    Weakness in the DX also prevented fall in the oil prices.Outlook For the coming week, we expect crude oil prices to trade lower on the back of

    expectations that demand from China will slowdown coupled with less thanexpected decline in US Crude oil inventories. Additionally, rise in risk aversionin the global market sentiments will added downside pressure on the oil prices.

    However, weakness in DX along with forecast fro positive data from US andEuro Zone will cushion sharp fall in the prices.

    Depreciation in the Indian Rupee will prevent sharp fall in prices on the MCX.Weekly Technical Levels Nymex Crude Oil: Support: 92.20/90.40 Resistance 96.30/98.70. (CMP:$93.59) Sell MCX Crude Oil June between 5290-5310, SL 5385, Target - 5160. (CMP:Rs

    5223)

    86.0

    88.0

    90.0

    92.0

    94.0

    96.0

    98.0

    4,700

    4,800

    4,900

    5,000

    5,100

    5,200

    5,300

    5,400

    Nymex and MCX Crude Oil Price Performance

    MCX crude o il (Rs/bb l) NYMEX Crude Oi l ($ /bbl)

    361.3

    360.3

    363.1369.1

    371.7

    372.2

    376.4

    377.53

    381.4

    384

    382.7

    385.9

    388.6 388.9

    387.6

    388.6

    395.3 395.5

    394.9 394.6

    360

    365

    370

    375

    380

    385

    390

    395

    400Crude Oil Inventories (mn barrels)

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    Commodities Weekly Tracker Monday | May 27, 2013

    DX/ INRWeekly Price Performance US Dollar Index (DX) declined around 0.7 percent in the last week. The Indian Rupee depreciated around 1.7 percent on weekly basis.

    Factors that influenced downside movement in the DX Favorable jobless claims, new homes sales and other economic data from the US and

    Euro Zone. However, sharp downside in the currency was cushioned as a result of rise in risk

    aversion in the global market sentiments which led to increase in demand for the lowyielding currency.

    Further, expectations that US Federal Reserve will reduce its bond buying programcoupled with weak US equities markets also prevented sharp fall in the DX..

    Factors that influenced movement in the Rupee Expectations that US Federal Reserve may reduce its bond buying program coupled

    with increase in dollar demand from gold and crude oil importers. Additionally, weak domestic and global market sentiments also exerted downside

    pressure on the currency. However, sharp downside was cushioned as exporters took advantage of the sharp

    depreciation in the Indian Rupee and sold few dollars along with weakness in the DX.FII Inflows For the month of May 2013, FII inflows totaled at Rs.18,517.80 crores ($3,415.63

    million) as on 24th May 2013. Year to date basis, net capital inflows stood atRs.79,554.20 crores ($14,726.0 million) till 24th May 2013.Outlook In the coming week, Indian Rupee is expected to depreciate as a result of dollar

    demand from gold and oil importers coupled with weak global market sentiments.However, weakness in the DX will cushion sharp fall in the currency.

    Weekly Technical Levels USD/INR MCX May Support 55.20/54.70 Resistance 56.10/56.50. (CMP: 55.65) US Dollar Index: Support 83.0/82.65 Resistance 84.10/84.50. (CMP: 83.54)

    79.0

    80.0

    81.0

    82.0

    83.0

    84.0

    US Dollar Index

    53.0

    53.5

    54.0

    54.5

    55.0

    55.5

    56.0

    $/INR - Spot

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    Commodities Weekly Tracker Monday | May 27, 2013

    EuroWeekly Price Performance The Euro appreciated by 0.7 percent in the last week. The Euro touched a

    weekly high of 1.2998 and closed at 1.2929 against dollar on Friday.

    Factors that influenced upside movement in the Euro Favorable manufacturing and services economic data from the region. Further, weakness in the DX also supported an upside in the currency. However, sharp upside in the currency was capped as a result of rise in risk

    aversion in the global market sentiments.

    News GfK German Consumer Climate increased by 0.3 points to 6.5-mark in May as

    against a rise of 6.2-level in April. German Final Gross Domestic Product (GDP)remained unchanged at 0.1 percent in the Q1 of 2013.

    German Ifo Business Climate increased by 1.3 points to 105.7-mark in May fromearlier rise of 104.4-level in April.

    French Flash Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) increased by 1.1points to 45.5-mark in May as against a rise of 44.4-level in April.German FlashManufacturing PMI increased by 0.9 points to 49-level in May from earlier rise of 48.1-mark in April. European Flash Manufacturing PMI gained by 1.1 points to47.8-mark in May with respect to rise of 46.7-level a month ago. European FlashServices PMI grew by 0.5 points to 47.5-level in current month when compared

    to 47-mark in the last month.Outlook In the coming week we expect Euro currency to appreciate on the back of

    weakness in DX coupled with forecast for favorable economic data from region. However, sharp upside in the currency will be capped on account of rise in risk

    aversion in the global market sentiments.

    Weekly Technical Levels EURO/USD SPOT: Support 1.2800/1.2730 Resistance 1.3070/1.3200. (CMP:

    1.2912)

    1.275

    1.285

    1.295

    1.305

    1.315

    1.325

    1.335

    1.345

    1.355

    1.365

    Euro/$ - Spot

    69.0

    69.5

    70.0

    70.5

    71.0

    71.5

    72.0

    72.5

    73.0

    EURO/INR -Spo t

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    Chana

    Commodities Weekly Tracker Monday | May 27, 2013

    Weekly Price Performance After witnessing some short coverings in the initial part of the week, Chana

    prices declined from higher levels on account of arrival pressure coupled with

    lower than expected wedding season demand hitting a fresh contract low of Rs.3289 per qtl in the June contract.

    Chana spot as well as June futures settled 3.31% and 2.54% lower w-o-w.

    Higher arrivals seen restricting upside in the prices Peak arrival period in the major growing states have led to a sharp fall in the

    chana prices in the past four weeks. Thus, stockiest demand emerging at supportprice levels led to an upside in the prices. Despite of this, higher arrivals willrestrict sharp upside in eh prices till the month end.

    Chana output estimated at record high- Third Advance Estimates According to the third advance estimates released last week, Chana output is

    pegged marginally lower to 8.49 mn tn compared with its second advanceestimates of 8.57 million tonnes. Chana output is expected to breach its 2010-11record of 8.2 mn tn in 2012-13.

    Seasonal pressure to keep prices under downside pressure Chana prices tend to follow a seasonality pattern, wherein prices decline during

    the harvesting period and bottom out when arrivals reach their peak in themonth of May. Thus, we expect the current downward trend to continue till the

    month end.Outlook Chana prices are expected to remain under downside as the arrival pressure

    may keep prices under check. However, prices are not expected to sustainbelow the Minimum Support Price of Rs 3200 per qtl mark, below which farmersmay not sell their produce. Also stockists demand is expected to emerge at suchlow levels and thus we may see a recovery in the Chana prices June onwards.

    Weekly Strategy Sell NCDEX CHANA June between 3340-3360, SL -3450, Target - 3200 / 3180.

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    Turmeric

    Source: Agriwatch & Reuters

    Commodities Weekly Tracker

    Weekly Price Performance Turmeric Futures traded on a mixed note with a downside bias last week as huge

    carryover stocks coupled with weak demand due to high temperatures keptprices under pressure. However, fresh export enquiries coupled with withdrawalof special margins of 10% on the long side supported prices at lower levels.

    The spot as well as the futures settled 0.97% and 0.94% lower w-o-w.

    Weak exports data Turmeric exports during Apr-Jan 2013 declined by 4% to 66,550 tn. (Source Factiva)

    Modification in Tick size and Lot size NCDEX issued a circular earlier this month that it will modify the tick as well as the

    lot size in the Turmeric contract. However the exchange later announced that ithas kept the circular issued earlier has been kept in abeyance till further notice.

    Lower acreage of Turmeric for the 2012-13 season Production of turmeric may decline in 2012-2013 season due to weak monsoon as

    well as lower turmeric prices. The area covered under Turmeric in A.P. as on 10 th October, 2012 has been reported at 0.58 lakh hectares. The area covered is loweras compared to last year (0.81 lha), as well as normal as on date (0.67 lha).Sowing is reported to be 30-35% lower compared to last year.

    Lower production in the 2012-2013 season

    Turmeric production in 2012-13 is expected around 50% lower compared to lastyear and is expected around 45-50 lakh bags. Production in 2011-12 is reportedat historical high of 90 lakh bags/ 10.62 lakh tns.

    Outlook Prices may remain under downside pressure in the initial part of the week on the

    back of huge stocks and weak demand. However, prices may recover from lowrelevels as farmers not hold back their stocks. Also export demand may emerge atlower levels ahead of Ramadan and the summers start to cool down.

    Weekly Strategy Sell NCDEX Turmeric June between 6080-6120, SL -6280, Target - 5840 / 5800.

    Monday | May 27, 2013

    Source: Reuters & Angel Research.

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    Jeera

    Source: Ministry of Agriculture, Gujarat.

    Commodities Weekly Tracker

    Weekly Price Performance Jeera futures continued to trade on a positive note last week as fresh export

    enquiries supported prices. Declining arrivals have also supported the prices.Currently the arrivals are about 8,000-10,000 bags/day against a peak of 40,000-45,000 bags/day. However, higher production estimates have capped sharp gainsin the prices. Prices had declined over the last few months due to higher sowing.The 3 years average sowing is reported at 3.189 lk ha. About 25-30% of the newcrop from Gujarat has already been exported to Singapore, Europe & Dubai.

    The spot settled 0.17% lower while the Futures settled 1.26% higher w-o-w.

    Second consecutive year of higher output Indias 2013 Jeera output is estimated at 40-45 lakh bags (of 55kgs each), higher

    than 40 lakh bags in 2012. However, increase in the exports due to supplyconcerns in the global markets offset the impact of higher supplies on the pricesand thus, medium term fundamentals remain supportive for the upside.

    Global supply concerns boost Jeera exports Jeera exports during Apr-Jan 2013 stood at 64,400 tn, higher by 86% (Source Factiva). Due to lower production in Syria and Turkey, coupled with the ongoing tensions

    between them, exports are not taking place and have been diverted to India. Theyhave stopped shipments. Turkey may start offering its Jeera in the coming days.

    International Scenario According to reports, production in Syria is reported around 22,000 tonnes while

    production in Turkey is reported between 5000-7000 tonnes, lower by 20% andaround 50% respectively, raising supply concerns in the international markets.

    Indian Jeera in the international market is being offered at $2,450/tn (c&f).

    Outlook Jeera is expected to continue to trade higher this week on account of overseas

    demand at lower levels. However, higher output estimates may cap sharp upside.

    Weekly Levels Buy NCDEX Jeera June between 13050-13100, SL -12700, Target - 13600 / 13700.

    Monday | May 27, 2013

    Source: Reuters & Angel Research.

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    Soybean

    Commodities Weekly Tracker Monday | May 27, 2013

    Weekly price performance Soybean traded with a negative bias last week on account of weak meal export

    demand coupled with normal monsoon forecast. However, poor supplies coupled

    with positive international markets limited the downside. The June futures settled1.63% lower w-o-w.

    CBOT Soybean July gained 1.92% w-o-w on tight supplies of the old crop coupledwith positive export sales data. However, favorable weather capped the upside.

    India's soy meal Exports Fall by 68 Percent during FY12-13 SEA Indias soy meal exports for the month of April 2013 were 99.451 tonnes, lower by

    68.31 percent from 313,832 tonnes a year ago.

    Increase in the output in the 3 rd Advance Estimates

    As per the 3rd

    Advance Estimates released by the Ministry of Agriculture, soybeanoutput increased to 14.14 mn tn from 12.24 mn tn in the previous estimates.

    Delay in shipments from Brazil Heavy rainfall in Brazil caused has hampered the loading of soybeans at the Brazil

    ports, leading to a delay in the shipments.

    South American Soybean Exports Seen at Record High- Oil World Brazil, set to become the worlds largest soybean exporter, may ship a record 7.6

    million tons of the oilseed in May after permitting ports to operate 24 hours a day,from a previous 8-hour limit.

    US Soy planting- 24% complete According to the weekly crop report, only 24% of Soybean has been planted as

    against 71% last year and five year average of 42%.

    Outlook Soybean prices may remain range bound in the coming week as weak meal exports

    may offset poor supplies in the domestic markets. Traders will now take cues fromthe monsoon and sowing progress to derive further price trend.

    Strategy Sell NCDEX Soybean June between 3890-3910, SL -4005, Target - 3745 / 3725.

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    Refine Soy Oil and Crude Palm Oil

    Commodities Weekly Tracker Monday | May 27, 2013

    Weekly price performance Edible oil complex continued to gain last week extended previous weeks

    gains on account of lower stocks and seasonally lower yield period of Malaysian Palm Oil. Ref Soy oil on NCDEX as well as CPO prices at MCX settled1.01% and 1.98% higher w-o-w.

    Global Scenario Exports of Malaysian palm oil products from May 1 to 25 fell 5.2% to

    1,064,925 tonnes from 1,123,129 tonnes shipped during April 1 to 25. Stocks data from industry regulator the Malaysian Palm Oil Board showed

    inventory levels at the end of April down 11.3 percent to 1.93 million tonnesagainst the previous month's 2.17 mn tn. But exports of palm oil products for

    May 1-10 slid 16.7% to 380,047 tn.Domestic Scenario As per the data released by the The Solvent Extractors' Association of India

    Imports of all vegetable oils, including non-edible oils, by India, declined29.23% in April 2013, to 654,827 tonnes from 925,334 tonnes in April 2012due to high stocks lying at the ports.

    Stockpiles of edible oil at ports on May 1 stood at 670,000 tn, the trade bodysaid, off a record of 930,000 tn on March 1. Stocks were still on the higherside despite the decline in monthly imports.

    India's imports of palm oil could rise more than 17% in the year to October2013 to stand at 9 mn tn, compared with 7.67 mn tn of palm oil in 2011/12 asthe edible oil is the cheapest available, despite an import duty.

    Strategy Buy NCDEX Ref Soya Oil June between 698-702, SL -687, Target - 719 / 722. Buy MCX CPO June between 469-471, SL -462, Target - 482 / 484.

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    Sugar

    Commodities Weekly Tracker Monday | May 27, 2013

    Weekly Price Performance After gaining over the last three weeks, Sugar prices corrected from higher levels

    on account of profit booking coupled with weak international markets & sufficientsupplies in the domestic markets. Prices had gained due to good demand fromthe bulk consumers coupled with governments decontrol of the sugar sector.

    ICE sugar settled 0.3% lower last week on the back of record production in Brazil.However, prices recovered from lower levels on account of short coverings.

    Sugarcane planting down 10.9% As on 24 th May, 2013, Sugarcane has been planted in 41.24 lakh ha against 45.98

    lakh ha last year. Lower acreage has been reported in Maharashtra by 45% (5.11lakh ha), Karnataka by 10.4% (3.27 lakh ha),

    India is expected to have produced around 24.52 million tonnes (mt) of sugarduring the first six months of the 2012-13 sugar marketing season.

    India sugar reserves at five-year high set to avert imports Sugar inventories in India, are poised to surge by 37% to 9.2 million tonnes at the

    start of October, a five-year high as exports halt because of slumping globalprices. Exports have plunged to about 35,000 tonnes since 1 October from 3.4million tonnes in 2011-2012.

    Brazil ethanol demand to cut global sugar surplus Copersucar

    Demand from Brazil's resurgent biofuels industry will cut the burgeoning globalsugar surplus, helping cushion prices that fell below 17 cents per lb for the firsttime in almost three years.

    Outlook Sugar prices are expected to recover from lower levels on account of

    improvement in demand from the bulk manufacturers coupled with lower caneplanting figures. However, weak international markets may pressurize prices..

    Strategy Buy NCDEX SUGAR June between 2990-3010, SL -2940, Target - 3090 / 3100.

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    Kapas/Cotton

    Commodities Weekly Tracker Monday | May 27, 2013

    Weekly Price Performance Domestic Kapas as well as cotton prices traded on a mixed note last week as

    extreme hot weather has supported prices while offloading of stocks from the statereserves pressurized prices.

    ICE Cotton futures declined sharply and settled 5.69% lower last week on account of worries of a potential slowdown in China coupled with improving weather in the USeasing sowing concerns.

    Govt Likely to Sell More Cotton this Month Cotton Corporation & NAFED are expected to offload 8 lakh bales at lower prices.

    After an unsuccessful bid to offload of 2.5 lakh bales of cotton in April, thegovernment has now decided to give it a fresh chance.

    Cotton Advisory Board sees lower kharif sowing CAB in its latest meet has projected cotton crop at 34 mn bales for 2012-13 season

    compared to the previous estimates of 33 mn bales. Mill consumption is expected togo up from 22.3 million bales last year to 23.5 million bales.

    Exports are estimated at 8.1 mn bales. While Import are estimated 2.5 mn bales.

    US Cotton planting to determine cotton prices Cotton prices have shown some recovery in the past weeks as unfavorable weather

    caused delay in plantings. As on 20 h May, Cotton planting was 39% completed in theUS compared to 59% during the last year and average 52% in the last five years.However, Planting is expected picked up as weather improved in Mississippi Deltaand into the Southeast United States .

    Outlook Cotton prices may trade with a mixed note this week on the back of extreme hot

    weather. Farmers are also holding back their stocks. Any recovery in internationalmarkets may also support prices. However, offloading more stocks in the localmarkets from state reserves may exert pressure on the domestic cotton prices.

    Strategy Buy NCDEX KAPAS April'13 above 1040, SL -1010, Target - 1085 / 1090.

  • 7/30/2019 Commodities Weekly Tracker, 27th May 2013

    19/19

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