commercial market outlook - nar's chief economist lawrence yun
DESCRIPTION
Commercial Real Estate Market OutlookLawrence Yun, Ph.D.Chief EconomistNATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®Presentation at NAR Midyear Legislative MeetingsWashington, D.C. May 12, 2011TRANSCRIPT
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Commercial Real Estate Market Outlook
Lawrence Yun, Ph.D.Chief Economist
NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
Presentation at NAR Midyear Legislative MeetingsWashington, D.C.
May 12, 2011
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Moderate GDP Growth
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Total Job Gains(in millions from 12 month ago)
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Jobs: Private vs. Public(index = 1 in 1990)
1990s Federal Government Job Cuts
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Federal Budget Surplus/Deficit
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Federal Government Spending/Revenue
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Private Sector Construction (Minimal new inventory addition helps vacancy rate to fall)
Value Put-in-Place in $ million
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U-Turn in Commercial Sales(for properties valued at $2.5 million or higher)
RESEARCH
$0
$20,000,000,000
$40,000,000,000
$60,000,000,000
$80,000,000,000
$100,000,000,000
$120,000,000,000
$140,000,000,000
$160,000,000,000
U.S. Sales Volume
Apartment Hotel Industrial Office Retail
Source: Real Capital Analytics
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REALTORS® Commercial Market Survey
RESEARCH
60%
40%
Completed sales transaction?
YesNo
Source: NAROver $10 M
Between $5 M and $10 M
$2 M and $5 M
Between $1 M and $2 M
Between $500K and $1 M
Between $250K and $500K
Under $250K
2%
2%
8%
12%
20%
25%
31%
Dollar amount of last transaction
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REALTORS® Commercial Sales Trend
RESEARCH
2008.Q4 2009.Q1 2009.Q2 2009.Q3 2009.Q4 2010.Q1 2010.Q2 2010.Q3 2010.Q4 2011.Q1
-12%
-10%
-8%
-6%
-4%
-2%
0%
2%
4%
Source: NAR
Modestly Getting Better
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Commercial Debt CMBS Markets
RESEARCH
-
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
40,000
45,000
50,000
Monthly CMBS Issuance ($ Mil)
Source: Commercial Mortgage Alert
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Commercial Lending
RESEARCH
2002.Q1
2002.Q2
2002.Q3
2002.Q4
2003.Q1
2003.Q2
2003.Q3
2003.Q4
2004.Q1
2004.Q2
2004.Q3
2004.Q4
2005.Q1
2005.Q2
2005.Q3
2005.Q4
2006.Q1
2006.Q2
2006.Q3
2006.Q4
2007.Q1
2007.Q2
2007.Q3
2007.Q4
2008.Q1
2008.Q2
2008.Q3
2008.Q4
2009.Q1
2009.Q2
2009.Q3
2009.Q4
2010.Q1
2010.Q2
2010.Q3
2010.Q4
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400Origination Volume Index (2001 Qtr Avg=100)
Source: Mortgage Bankers Association
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REALTORS® Commercial Lending Survey
RESEARCH
59%
33%
8%
Failed to complete transaction due to financing in 2011?
Yes
No
N/A
Tightened Signif-icantly
Tightened Somewhat
Not Changed
Eased Somewhat
Eased Significantly
N/A
47%
18%
19%
15%
0%
1%
Changes in lending conditions over past year
Source: NAR
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REALTORS® Commercial Lending Survey
RESEARCH
National Banks
Regional Banks
Credit Unions
Life Insurance Cos.
REITs
Private Investors
Public Cos.
Other
0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350
Sources of Financing
Fannie/Freddie
HUD
SBA
Community/Local Banks
Owner Financing
Crossborder Investors
Mortgage Brokers/Cos.
Don't know/None
Misc.
0 5 10 15 20 25 30
Providers of commercial financing: Other
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Commercial Equity Markets
RESEARCH
J 06 M M J S N
J 07 M M J S N
J 08 M M J S N
J 09 M M J S N
J 10 M M J S N
J 11
-
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
Public Equity
Monthly US REIT Equity Issuance ($ Mil)
Source: NAREIT
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Commercial Price Index
RESEARCH
20 5 9 20 5 9 20 5 9 20 5 9 20 5 9 20 5 9 20 5 9 20 5 9 20 5 9 20 5 9 20
0.9
1.1
1.3
1.5
1.7
1.9
2.1 MIT CPPI
Source: Real Capital Analytics, MIT
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Commercial Distress
RESEARCH
J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M2008 2009 2010 2011
$-
$50,000,000,000
$100,000,000,000
$150,000,000,000
$200,000,000,000
$250,000,000,000
$300,000,000,000
$350,000,000,000 Cummulative Distress
Troubled REO Restructured Resolved
Source: Real Capital Analytics
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REALTOR® Commercial Market Survey on Price
RESEARCH
2008.Q4 2009.Q1 2009.Q2 2009.Q3 2009.Q4 2010.Q1 2010.Q2 2010.Q3 2010.Q4 2011.Q1
-14%
-12%
-10%
-8%
-6%
-4%
-2%
0%
Source: NAR
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Cap Rates(Steady Apartment and Swinging Office)
RESEARCH
05Q105Q2
05Q305Q4
06Q106Q2
06Q306Q4
07Q107Q2
07Q307Q4
08Q108Q2
08Q308Q4
09Q109Q2
09Q309Q4
10Q110Q2
10Q310Q4
5.0%
5.5%
6.0%
6.5%
7.0%
7.5%
8.0%
8.5%
9.0%
9.5%Apartment Industrial Office Retail
Source: Real Capital Analytics
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U.S. Treasury Yields(1% point rise in blended interest rate will mean $2 trillion in
extra government outlay over the next 10 years)
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Office Fundamentals
2010.2 2010.3 2010.4 2011.1 2011.2 2011.3 2011.40
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
15.0%
15.2%
15.4%
15.6%
15.8%
16.0%
16.2%
16.4%
16.6%
16.8%
Completions Absorption Vacancy
Squa
re F
eet (
'000
s)
Perc
ent (
%)
Source: NAR/CBRE-EA
RESEARCH
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Office Rents
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
-15.0%
-10.0%
-5.0%
0.0%
5.0%
10.0%
15.0%
National Rent Growth
Source: NAR/CBRE-EA
RESEARCH
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Financial Activity and Professional Business Service Job Gains
(in thousands from 12 month ago)
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Office Vacancies
RESEARCH
0.0%
5.0%
10.0%
15.0%
20.0%
25.0%
30.0%
8.3%
16.5%
25.8%
Selected Markets - 2011.Q1
Source: NAR/CBRE-EA
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Industrial Fundamentals
RESEARCH
2010.2 2010.3 2010.4 2011.1 2011.2 2011.3 2011.4
-10000
0
10000
20000
30000
40000
50000
12.0%
12.5%
13.0%
13.5%
14.0%
14.5%
15.0%
Completions Absorption Vacancy
Squa
re F
eet (
'000
s)
Perc
enta
ge (%
)
Source: NAR/CBRE-EA
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Industrial Rents
RESEARCH
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
-12.00%
-10.00%
-8.00%
-6.00%
-4.00%
-2.00%
0.00%
2.00%
4.00%
6.00%
8.00%
National Rent Growth
Source: NAR/CBRE-EA
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Wholesale Inventory Bouncing Back (Value in $ million)
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Industrial Vacancies
RESEARCH
Los Angeles
Salt Lake City
Orange CountyHouston
Kansas CityNATION
PhoenixBoston
StamfordDetroit
Trenton0.0%
5.0%
10.0%
15.0%
20.0%
25.0%
7.5%
14.2%
23.3%
Selected Markets - 2011.Q1
Source: NAR/CBRE-EA
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Retail Fundamentals
RESEARCH
2010.2 2010.3 2010.4 2011.1 2011.2 2011.3 2011.4
-1000
-500
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
12.6%
12.7%
12.8%
12.9%
13.0%
13.1%
13.2%
Completions Absorption Vacancy
Squa
re F
eet (
000'
s)
Perc
enta
ge (%
)
Source: NAR/CBRE-EA
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Retail Rents
RESEARCH
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
-6.0%
-4.0%
-2.0%
0.0%
2.0%
4.0%
6.0%
National Rent Growth
Source: NAR/CBRE-EA
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Retail Sales Bouncing Back(% change from 12 month ago; excluding autos/parts)
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Sluggish Retail Sector Job Gains(in thousands from 12 month ago)
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Retail Vacancies
RESEARCH
San FranciscoMiami
Long IslandHonolulu
Orange CountyNATION
Las VegasTucson
DetroitCincinnati
Kansas City0.0%
2.0%
4.0%
6.0%
8.0%
10.0%
12.0%
14.0%
16.0%
18.0%
20.0%
6.7%
13.0%
18.3%
Selected Markets - 2011.Q1
Source: NAR/CBRE-EA
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Sluggish Wholesale Trade Job Gains(in thousands from 12 month ago)
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Multifamily Fundamentals
RESEARCH
2010.2 2010.3 2010.4 2011.1 2011.2 2011.3 2011.4
-40000
-20000
0
20000
40000
60000
80000
100000
120000
3.0%
4.0%
5.0%
6.0%
7.0%
8.0%
Completions Absorption Vacancy Rate
Nr.
of U
nits
Perc
ent (
%)
Source: NAR/CBRE-EA
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Multifamily Rents
RESEARCH
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
-4.0%
-3.0%
-2.0%
-1.0%
0.0%
1.0%
2.0%
3.0%
4.0%
5.0%
National Rent Growth
Source: NAR/CBRE-EA
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Renter HouseholdsIn million
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Multifamily Vacancies
RESEARCH
0.0%
2.0%
4.0%
6.0%
8.0%
10.0%
12.0%
2.6%
5.9%
10.8%
Selected Markets - 2011.Q1
Source: NAR/CBRE-EA
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Fundamentals
• Improving economy and job market• No overbuilding … increased absorption means
falling vacancy• Real estate hedge play from inflation
• But interest rates will be rising– Refinancing in 5 years ? … be prepared– Higher rents, but not necessarily higher property
prices from rising cap rates
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Economic Forecast2011 2012
GDP Growth 2.5% 2.7%
Net New Jobs 1.8 million 2.0 million
CPI Inflation 2.9% 2.8%
10-year Treasury Rate 3.7% 4.4%
Unemployment Rate 8.8% 8.5%
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Commercial Market Forecast2011 2012
Apartment Rent 3% to 4% 4% to 5%
Office Rent -1% to 0% 0% to 2%
Retail Rent -1% to 0% 0% to 2%
Industrial Rent -3% to -2% 1% to 3%
Property Price(Inflation hedge vs.
cap rate)
??? ???