commercial finance association chicago
TRANSCRIPT
2016 Election
Impact on business, jobs and lives
Problems and Solutions
US & Intl Economic Situation
2016 Presidential Race
Future Growth
US Dollar +25%
3yr Oil and Nat Gas
Rate Dilemma
“There are limits to what monetary policy can and, indeed, should, do. The burden
must also fall on fiscal and other policies to do their part to help create conditions
conducive to economic stability.”
SF Fed President John Williams
Productivity=Growth
The 10yr Debt Time Bomb
Policy solutions for growth
Free Trade=lower tariffs
Reg. Relief=reduced costs
Tax reform=capital formation w/incentives
Infrastructure=efficiency
Energy Production
Trump Econ/Tax PlanCut Corp& Pass thru
to 15%Carried interest as
ordinary1x 10% Repat Tax
Ag TPP and NAFTAImpose tariffs on imported goods
Big Drop in InterestDeductibility
New $500B infrastructure Full expensing!
100 Day Energy & Reg Plan
Energy Platform:Save coal industry,
Pass Keystone, Lift moratorium for energy on
Fed landsCancel Paris Climate Agreement
Rescind and Reform: Obama executive actions,
Climate Action Plan, WOTUS,
Obamacare, Dodd-Frank
Trump biz plans help/hurt
Help: big tech & big pharma
Hurt: debt heavy balance sheets
Help: industrials & manufacturers
Hurt: free trade
Help: energy production
Help: Transportation/Engineering
Help: banking
The Good and the Bad
Source: Tax Foundation
CLINTON PLAN
Fair share C tax
No Free Trade
Exit Tax
$275B Infrastructure plan
Extend/expand Obama regulation
programs
Big Change to Cap Gains
Fin Reg & Energy Plan
500mln solar panels by 2021Implement Clean Power Plan &
Paris Agreements$60B Clean energy challenge
Risk fee on the largest financial institutionsNo hedge fund investing
Hold senior bankers accountable for lossesNo financial firm is ever too big or too risky
HFT tax, close carried interest
Clinton plans help/hurt
Hurt: MNCs competitiveness
Hurt: raises taxes on top earners/capital formation
Help: transportation/enginering
Help: energy/alternatives
Hurt: energy/hydrocarbon production
Hurt: banking
Good, Bad and Complicated
Source: Tax Foundation
2016 RecapClinton:
biz tax hikes build on regscap gains taxno free trade
big alternativesbig infra
create pathway
Trump: biz tax cutsreduce regs
cap gains cutno free trade
big hydro carbon big infra
build a wall
Source: PIIE
Major Credit Issues
Regulatory Burden
Politics/Election fat tail
Slow growth & low rates
Policy solution summary
Future Growth Solutions
AI, Big Data, Analytics
Fintech
Reg Tech
Focus on what your own company does best — for instance, identifying investment
themes, assessing credit exposure, managing counterparty risk, or executing and settling financial transactions — and
then tap into the FinTech pool for innovation that can support or expand upon your organization’s core market.
PWC: 2016 Financial Services Trends
Big Data, Analytics, AI
Fintech
Block Chain isn’t just for Bitcoin
Robo advisors: Betterment & Wealthfront
Real estate crowdfunding: Peer Street, Real Crow, Realty Mogul
Digitally Enabled Lenders
Regtech: what it needs to solve
Business model risk
Failure resiliency
Legal structure simplicity
Final Thoughts…