Commercial AviationCommercial AviationSafety Team Safety Team

(CAST)(CAST)

Plan & MetricsPlan & Metrics

AgendaAgenda Executive Overview of CAST Progress

Historical Background

Progress to Date Annual Safety Plan

Inclusion of R & D Business model

Action Plan

Garner support for continued CAST activities

CAST OriginCAST Origin

In the U.S., our focus was set by theIn the U.S., our focus was set by theWhite House Commission on Aviation SafetyWhite House Commission on Aviation Safety

1.1 Government and industry should establish a national goal to reduce the aviation fatal accident rate by a factor of five within ten years and conduct safety research to support that goal

1.2 The FAA should develop standards for continuous safety improvement, and should target its regulatory resources based on performance against those standards

5.3-2

The National Civil Aviation Review The National Civil Aviation Review Commission (NCARC) Commission (NCARC)

on Aviation Safety Provided Additional Directionon Aviation Safety Provided Additional Direction

• FAA and the aviation industry must develop a strategic plan to improve safety, with specific priorities based on objective, quantitative analysis of safety information and data

• Government should expand on their programs to improve aviation safety in other parts of the world

5.3-3

In ResponseIn Response

Ongoing Industry and FAA Safer Skies Initiatives were Combined into CAST

Data-Driven, Consensus-Based, Integrated Strategic Safety Plan Developed

In place and fully supported by Government and Industry with Worldwide Recognition - “CAST”

Historical Part 121 Fatality Risk (1987-2000)

0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%

100%To

tal

LOC

Flt

CFIT

Fire

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Crew

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Excluding all security events

HUMAN FACTORSIN OPERATIONS &

MAINTENANCE

Carry-on Baggage

Child Restraint

Passenger Interference

CABIN SAFETY

IMPROVED DATA & ANALYSIS

GENERAL AVIATION

Loss of Control

Weather

Survivability

Aeronautical Decisionmaking

Controlled Flight Into Terrain Approach and

Landing

COMMERCIAL AVIATION

Controlled Flight Into Terrain

Loss of Control

Weather

Uncontained Engine Failures

Runway IncursionPassenger Seat Belt Use

Runway Incursions

Safer SkiesSafer Skies

Turbulence

CAST GoalsCAST Goals

Reduce the U.S. commercial aviation fatal accident rate by 80% by 2007

Work together with airlines, JAA, ICAO, IATA, FSF, IFALPA, other international organizations and appropriate regulatory/ government authorities to reduce worldwide commercial aviation fatal accident rate

Industry

Commercial Aviation Commercial Aviation Safety TeamSafety Team

(CAST)(CAST)

Government

*Representing GE and RR

DODFAA

• Aircraft Certification• Flight Standards• System Safety• Air Traffic Operations• Research

NASAICAOJAATCCNATCA

AIAAirbusALPAAPAATANACABoeingP&W*RAAFSFIATAAAPAATACAPFA

Commercial Aviation Safety Team (CAST)Commercial Aviation Safety Team (CAST)

• Safety enhancement development

• Master safety plan • Enhancement

effectiveness• Future areas of study

CASTCAST• Data analyses

Joint Safety Joint Safety Analysis Teams (JSAT)Analysis Teams (JSAT)

Joint Safety Joint Safety Implementation Implementation

Teams (JSIT)Teams (JSIT)

Joint Implementation Joint Implementation Measurement Data Measurement Data

Analysis Team (JIMDAT)Analysis Team (JIMDAT)

Commercial Aviation Safety Team (CAST)Commercial Aviation Safety Team (CAST)

CASTCASTA Three-Stage ProcessA Three-Stage Process

Influence Safety Enhancements -

Worldwide

DataAnalysis

Set SafetyPriorities

Achieve consensus on

priorities Integrate into existing work and distribute

Implement Safety Enhancements -

U.S.

Agree onproblems and interventions

Additional Safer Skies ActivitiesAdditional Safer Skies Activities

Although the primary purpose of our briefing focuses on CAST, there are other Safer Skies focus areas:– General Aviation Joint Steering Committee

(JSC)– Cabin Safety

Integrated Strategic Safety PlanIntegrated Strategic Safety Plan Data-Driven, Consensus-Based, Integrated Strategic

Safety Plan Developed– 46 Prioritized Safety Enhancements– 8 R&D Projects and 2 Studies

46 safety enhancements optimized to include those actions with the best effectiveness vs. resource relationships - 22 complete/24 committed and underway

Initially combines short-term “liveware”-based enhancements with transition to design change enhancements long term

Projected 73% Risk Reduction by 2007 (75% by 2020) Foundation for U.S-supported continuous improvements

in worldwide aviation safety

CAST Safety PlanCAST Safety Plan

Completed Safety EnhancementsCompleted Safety Enhancements Terrain avoidance warning system (TAWS) CFIT Standard Operating Procedures Precision approach implementation (PAI) Vertical Angles –

Increase constant angle approaches Minimum Safe Altitude Warning (MSAW) Systems Proactive Safety Programs (FOQA + ASAP) CFIT Crew Resource Management (CRM) training CFIT Prevention training Air Traffic Controller CFIT training PAI-VGSI at runway ends PAI-DME at airports RI SOPs

– Ground Operations (General Aviation)– Tow tug operators– ATC

Completed Safety Enhancements (cont’d)Completed Safety Enhancements (cont’d) Safety Culture

– Industry will include essential safety information in the appropriate airline manuals (i.e., training programs)

– FAA inspectors will utilize the Aircraft Flight Manual (AFM) database– CEO and Director of Safety (DOS) more visible

Maintenance Procedures – FAA published guidance on:

Servicing landing struts Surveillance of maintenance subcontractors Minimum Equipment List (MEL) (covers recurring maintenance events)

– Air Carriers’ Directors of Safety completed internal surveys to verify guidance was being followed

ALAR Flight crew training Uncontained Engine Failures

– FAA issued Airworthiness Directives requiring the Inspection of High-Energy Rotating Parts

Committed Plan ElementsCommitted Plan Elements Policies and Procedures

– Industry will develop/implement Risk Management tools– Industry will develop a process to inform personnel/flight crew of critical safety information– Industry will develop a process to enhance flight crew proficiency – FAA/Industry will develop standard operating procedures for loss of control related accidents

Aircraft Design – FAA will issue guidance on Continuing Airworthiness– FAA will issue guidance on Critical System Maintenance– FAA will amend guidance to include recommendations surrounding autoflight designs for

new type designs– Manufacturers will implement Flight Deck Equipment Upgrades for new type designs (i.e.

interactive checklists)– FAA/JAA will amend guidance to include recommendations regarding Displays and Alerting

Systems for new designs– Manufacturers agree to install Vertical Situation Displays in new aircraft– FAA/JAA will issue amended icing certification criteria for criteria for new airplane designs

not equipped with evaporative systems – Manufacturers agree to install Flight Envelope Protection in new type designs

Committed Plan Elements (cont.)Committed Plan Elements (cont.)

Runway Incursions

– Enhanced airport surveillance equipment

– Standard operating procedures (SOPs)• Ground operations (121/135)• Vehicle operators Clearance readback requirements

– Training• Pilots• ATC

- Enhanced Tower Controller Training- CRM

Committed Plan Elements (cont.)Committed Plan Elements (cont.) Flight Crew Training

– Advanced Maneuvers Training will be provided by all operators

– Industry will incorporate a human factors-related training guide into training programs and SOPs

Precision approach implementation (PAI) FAA and Industry will develop:

– Recommended procedures, displays and training that will enable pilots of commercial aircraft to fly a stabilized vertical path to the runway for all instrument approaches

– Criteria and guidance for reduced landing minima– Laterally and vertical guided approach paths to runway

ends not served by Instrument Landing System (ILS)

CAST R&D PlanCAST R&D Plan CFIT – Synthetic Vision Systems

Develop capabilities that permit flight crews to operate in a day VMC-like environment, regardless of visibility

CFIT – FOQA & ASAP Develop low cost analytical tools (including decision

making) and methods that both large and small operators can apply to FOQA and ASAP information

CFIT – DatalinkDevelop datalink capabilities and systems for automatic digital transmission

CAST R&D Plan (cont’d)CAST R&D Plan (cont’d) CFIT Precision-Like Approach

Conduct research necessary to determine human factors guidelines for design of instrument procedures

ALAR - Health & Usage Monitoring Systems (HUMS) Conduct research and develop technology for detection, prediction and/or annunciation of impending equipment failures

ALAR – Human FactorsConduct research into correcting and eliminating the underlying reasons/causes for procedural noncompliance.

CAST R&D Plan (cont’d)CAST R&D Plan (cont’d)

LOC – Icing For aircraft that incorporate non-evaporative ice protection systems, develop systems that sense the presence of ice accretion on the aircraft, automatically activate and manage the ice protection systems, and provide the pilot with feedback including the effect on measured aircraft performance, stability, and control

LOC - Envelope Protection -Existing Airplanes Complete study and determine feasibility of modifying existing aircraft to include angle-of-attack / low speed protection (e.g., stick pushers/nudgers, column force ramps/gradients, automatic elevator/stabilizer inputs); thrust asymmetry compensation; and bank angle protection using hard or soft limits

CAST R&D Plan (cont’d)CAST R&D Plan (cont’d)

RI - ATC Procedures -Review Capacity Enhancement Program - LAHSO) Complete review of capacity enhancement programs to determine if they are contributory to runway incursions

RI - RI Visual Aids Enhancement and Automation Technology - Airports - Runway occupancy signal

Develop, evaluate and install a visual signal to indicate runway occupancy to flight crews on final approach to that runway

Resource Cost vs. Risk ReductionResource Cost vs. Risk Reduction

APPROVED PLAN

Completed + Plan (2007

Implementation Level)

Completed + Plan (2020

Implementation Level)

All JSIT Proposed Enhancements

(2020 Implementation

Level)

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

9000

10000

Res

ourc

e C

ost (

$ M

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Risk ReductionTotal Cost in $ (Millions)

2007 2020

0%

25%

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75%

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by

Safe

ty E

nhan

cem

ents

Completed

Safety Plan BenefitsSafety Plan Benefits

Prediction of a 73% risk reduction that also results in approximately $620 million annual savings to the industry– Current accident cost per flight is approximately

$76 cycle– Implementation of the 46 selected safety

enhancements reduces this cost by $56 per flight cycle

Safety is morally required and is also good for business

Dol

lars

/Flt.

Cyc

Part 121 Aviation Industry Cost Due to Fatal/Hull Loss Accidents100

80

60

40

20

0

Historical cost of accidents per flight cycle

73% Risk reduction

Savings ~ $56/Flight Cycle Or

~ $620 Million Dollars/Year

Cost of accident fatalities following implementation of the CAST plan @ 2007 levels

2002 2007

Cost SavingsCost Savings

U.S. Hull Loss & Fatal AccidentsPortion of Total Fatality Risk Mitigated by the CAST Plan

(2007 Implementation Values)

0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%

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of R

isk

Risk EliminatedRisk Remaining

CAST 1987-2000 Fatal/Hull Loss Database – Security events excluded

All Regions Combined Worldwide Hull Loss & Fatal World Wide AccidentsPortion of Fatality Risk Mitigated If CAST Plan is Adopted Worldwide

(2007 Implementation Values)

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%To

tal

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I

SCF-

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SCF-

NP ICE

Mid

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FIRE

-NI

FUEL RI

ARC RE

USO

S

WST

RW

ADRM

OTH

ER-B

IRD

Por

tion

of R

isk

Risk EliminatedRisk Remaining

Accident Classes Defined by CAST/ICAO Common Taxonomy

The CAST Process is FlexibleThe CAST Process is FlexibleIt may be used to analyze:

• Suggestions from outside industry

• Regulatory initiatives

• Accident lessons learned

• Incident data

• Other

Safety MetricsSafety MetricsPurpose: Measure to determine if program is resulting in desired

risk reduction. Identify issues needing more detailed analysis if desired result is not occurring

Assumption: Measurement of accident rate is not effective means of identifying program success

Concentrate on using reporting systems currently in existence (ex: FOQA, Partnership programs, SDR, NAOMS, etc.)

Direct link is through the problem statements identified by data analysis

–Identify events that reflect the problem–Identify available method for measuring the event frequency–Establish event baseline–Identify trend

Safety Metrics ExamplesSafety Metrics ExamplesSafety Enhancement Indicator

1. Terrain Avoidance Warning System (TAWS)

Reduction in MSAW alertsReduction in valid GPWS alerts (CFIT)

4. CFIT PAI-Vertical Angles (7-11,18)

Percentage of operators who have adopted constant angle approaches

Continuous reduction in selected metrics

21. ALAR Flight Deck Equipment Upgrades – New Type Designs (1-3)

Reduction in number of inadvertent descents below decision height

23. ALAR Flight Crew Training – one project

Continuous reduction in the number of busted approach gates

Continuous reduction in altitude busts

27. LOC Policies and Procedures – Risk Assessments and Management – one project

Percentage of operators/manufacturers with risk assessment/management processes in place

Continuous reduction in the number of operations with recurring intermittent failures in flight critical systems

Percentage of operators with a process to include safety information in manuals

CAST Links to International Safety CAST Links to International Safety ActivitiesActivities

Asia/Pacific– ICAO COSCAP

(Cooperative Development of Operational Safety and Continuing Airworthiness)

– NARAST, SARAST, SEARAST

– Association of Asia Pacific Airlines

Europe– JSSI: JAA Safety Strategy

Initiative Central / South America

– PAAST: Pan American Aviation Safety Team

East Africa– African Airlines Safety

Council, AFRASCO West Africa

– ASECNA (Agence pour la Securite de la Navigation Aerienne en Afrique et a Madagascar)

Flight Safety Foundation– CAAG (CFIT & Approach

and Landing Action Group) ICAO

– Global Aviation Safety Plan (GASP)

Future VisionFuture Vision

Execute the CAST-approved Safety Plan

Measure Plan effectiveness and modify Plan based on metrics and results

Continue the development of a proactive incident-based risk mitigation methodology

Improve the CAST process

Expand CAST influence on worldwide safety programs

Integrate safety program with R & D initiatives

Catalog the many on-going safety initiatives that dilute limited resources and identify opportunities for program integration and efficiency improvements

Safety Plan DevelopmentSafety Plan Development

AccidentJSAT’s

AccidentJSIT’s

SafetyEnhancements

CASTPlan

IncidentAnalysisProcess

Metrics JIMDATProcess

EmergingRisk

ChangingRisk

SafetyEnhancements

AviationSystem

ChangesPresent

In MasterFactors

Yes

NoDemographic

ChangesIdentifyHazards

IdentifyFactors

DevelopContributing

Factors(new or

emerging)

SafetyEnhancements

IdentifyHazards

IdentifyFactors

MasterContributing

Factors

6-11-03 CAST-051

CAST Plan Rev.

FAST Hazards

Metrics

Metrics

ConclusionsConclusions CAST has an effective data-driven process CAST has become the model for US Industry/Government

consensus building on safety CAST brings together all the key players

– Air Carriers – Manufacturers – Employee Groups – Government

Predicted 73% risk reduction by 2007 Industry is voluntarily implementing CAST

recommendations CAST is committed to worldwide participation CAST is moving to develop proactive processes to

identify changing and emerging risks