commerce real estate solutions 3rd qtr 2010 retail report

Retail3RD QUARTER REPORT 2010

2

Retail Market Overview

RETAIL MARKET INDICATORS

Change sinceCurrent 3Q09 3Q10

Vacancy 12.99%

Lease Rates (FSG) $1.63 NNN

Net Absorption* 402,311

Construction N/A

*Th e arrows are trend indicators over the specifi ed time period and do not represent a positive or negative value. (e.g., absorption could be negative, but still represent a positive specifi ed trend over a period.)

NATIONAL AND STATE EMPLOYMENT AND UNEMPLOYMENT OVERVIEW

The recession, which is said to have started in December 2007 and ended in June

2009, continues to hit the national unemployment rate, which is currently 9.6%.

Th is unemployment rate is a 28 year high for the country and equals to roughly 15 million

unemployed workers that are now drawing unemployment insurance benefi ts. In August,

27 states recorded unemployment rate increases. Th e highest regional jobless rates were

in the Western part of the country, while the Northeast recorded the lowest rates. In

May, Nevada took over the top spot from Michigan for the nation’s highest unemploy-

ment rate, at 14.4%. Th e states with the next highest rates were Michigan, 13.1 % and

California at 12.4 %. Th e Las Vegas economy continues to be adversely impacted by its

high employment rate, currently 14.7%, aff ecting all major sectors, including gaming, con-

struction, fi nancial and real estate. Th e recession will most likely be a “jobless recovery.”

AT A GLANCE

Vacancy Rates Fall - Overall vacancy rates

dropped during the quarter to 12.99%. Th is

is a 0.65% fall from 2nd quarter 2010 and a

raise from a year ago at 12.74%, 3rd quar-

ter 2009. Anchorless Strip product type is

showing the highest vacancy rates at 20.19%.

Vacancy decreases this quarter could be the

result of a market correcting itself from the

overbuilding of product we witnessed a

couple of years ago, since no new product

has come online. However, back to school

spending, wavering consumer confi dence

and still rising unemployment may prove

this to be just a blip of market improvement,

with declines to make a comeback after the

holiday shopping season.

Rents fall again - As Landlords are faced

with a “Tenant” market, they are seeing

many retailers renegotiating for lower rents

and asking for more concessions as their

leases come up for renewal. Negotiations

like these and more up-front incentives help

stabilize and even lower the overall average

lease rates. Currently, the Las Vegas mar-

ket is showing annual averages lease rates

at $1.63 per square feet (psf ). Th is is a drop

from last quarter at $1.74 psf and higher of

a drop from a year ago when rates where at

$1.92 psf.

Unknown Outlook for Las Vegas - Th e

economic outlook is starting to go on a posi-

tive track with vacancy and net absorption

both showing decreasing numbers. Th ere

are, however, still concerns on the still rising

unemployment rates for Las Vegas, which is

the highest in the country and how it will

continue to aff ect the Las Vegas economy.

Unemployment ticked up to 14.7% is an in-

dication that the market has not bottomed.

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Since World War II there have been a total of 11 recessions and in

the most recent recessions before the 2007 recession, job growth

lagged long after the recession. In fact it took several years for the

unemployment rate to return back to prerecession levels. Employ-

ment growth is critical to future economic growth and the return

to a healthy commercial market which may take several years to

accomplish. One positive outlook for the retail sector is that we

are starting to see improvement in taxable sales in Clark County.

In July, Clark County witnessed a 5.5% increase of taxable sales.

Taxable sales in Clark County have increased year-over-year in 3

out of the last 5 months, including consecutive gains of 5.5% and

3.8% in July and August, the two latest months for which we have

data. Th ese are the fi rst gains since August 2008. Th is increase in

taxable sales could be a sign that consumer confi dence is return-

ing and positive spending is happing. Th is should start to lower

vacancy rates and help unemployment numbers to drop.

LAS VEGAS RETAIL MARKET

Vacancy

By end of the quarter vacancies fi nally showed some improve-

ment from the long four year run of rising vacancy rates. Th e Las

Vegas retail market has approximately 7.22 million square feet of

vacant product, which equates to a 12.99% vacancy factor. Above-

average vacancies were noted in the Henderson (24.55%), North

Las Vegas (18.32%), and East (16.76%) submarkets. By product

type Strip Centers (20.19%) and Neighborhood Centers (13.08%)

retail buildings posted the highest vacancies at the end of the quar-

ter. Nellis at 10.24% and Central West at 8.77% posted the lowest

vacancy rates. Net absorption, the measure of space leased from

one reporting period to the next, for the 3rd quarter showed an

improvement again, at 402,311 sf. Th is is the fi rst time we have

seen a positive net absorption number since 3rd quarter 2008. Th e

Green Valley submarket showed the greatest amount of positive

absorption with over 135,527 sf for the quarter while the East

submarket posted the least amount with -32,658 sf of negative ab-

sorption. Th e retailers that are pulling through the recession have

enjoyed the wide array of occupancy choices. Th e old time saying

“location, location, location” really means something right now to

the retailers that can make the move to a more premier location

as space opens up and rental rates are lowered and become more

aff ordable.

ECONOMIC INDICATORS

National 2009 2010F 2011F

GDP Growth -2.4% 3.1% 3.9%

CPI Growth -0.3% 1.8% 2.1%

Consumer Spending Growth -0.6% 2.3% 3.1%

Rental Sales -0.63% 6.0% 5.7%

Regional

Household Income $54,299 $59,038 $65,000

Population 1,952,000 1,956,900 1,964,700

Unemployment 12.10% 14.7% 15.0%

Source: Moody’s | Economy.com

-1%1%3%5%7%9%

11%13%15%

1Q07

2Q07

3Q07

4Q07

1Q08

2Q08

3Q08

4Q08

1Q09

2Q09

3Q09

4Q09

1Q10

2Q10

3Q10

Las Vegas – 14.7%Nevada – 14.4%US – 9.6%

Unemployment rates 3Q10

Retail: Retail Employment vs Vacancy Rate (%)

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

100,000

Q308 Q408 Q109 Q209 Q309 Q409 Q110 Q210 Q310

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%

16%

18%

Retail: Clark County Taxable Sales and Vacancy Rate (%)

$10,000,000,000

$20,000,000,000

$30,000,000,000

$40,000,000,000

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

0.0%

2.0%

4.0%

6.0%

8.0%

10.0%

12.0%

14.0%

Clark County Taxable Retail Sales Overall Vacancy Rates

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Pricing (Average Asking Rents)

Average asking rents witness another decline to $1.63 per sf/mo

NNN during 3rd quarter 2010. Th is is the lowest asking lease rate that

we have seen since 2004 when the rate was $1.62 per sf/mo NNN.

Lease rates continue to drop as landlords compete for a limited num-

ber of users. Th e low rental rates could be playing a role in the new

leasing momentum that we are starting to witness, helping retailers

into spaces they could not aff ord before. Elevated tenant improve-

ment allowances and free rent concessions are also impacting returns

for landlords and ultimately lenders. We expect this trend to continue

throughout the rest of 2010 as inventory levels remain elevated.

Every submarket in the Las Vegas valley showed asking rental rates

decline with the highest declines in Southwest submarket at $1.71

sf/FSG from $1.92 sf/FSG and North Las Vegas and Summerlin

with both a $0.19 diff erence in asking lease rates from last quarter.

Th e smallest changes in rates were noticed in the Henderson, Cen-

tral West and Northwest submarkets where the asking lease rates re-

mained stable.

Note: the average asking rates do not take in consideration free rent

& rental concession.

Retail: Quarterly Absorption (SF)

(4,000,000)

(3,000,000)

(2,000,000)

(1,000,000)

-

1,000,000

2,000,000

Q3 06

Q4 06

Q1 07

Q2 07

Q3 07

Q4 07

Q1 08

Q2 08

Q308 Q408 Q109 Q209 Q309 Q409 Q110 Q210 Q310

Retail: Inventory (SF) and Vacancy Rate (%)

30,000,000

35,000,000

40,000,000

45,000,000

50,000,000

55,000,000

60,000,000

Q3 06

Q4 06

Q1 07

Q2 07

Q3 07

Q4 07

Q1 08

Q2 08

Q308 Q408 Q109 Q209 Q309 Q409 Q110 Q210 Q310

0.0%

2.0%

4.0%

6.0%

8.0%

10.0%

12.0%

14.0%

16.0%

Quarterly Inventory Overall Vacancy Rates

Retail Space Vacancy Rates

Central West, 8.77%

East, 16.76%

Henderson, 24.55%Nellis, 10.24%

North Las Vegas, 18.32%

Northwest, 10.55%

Southwest, 13.19%

Summerlin, 10.46% Central East, 14.01%

Green Valley, 11.05%

0.00%

5.00%

10.00%

15.00%

20.00%

25.00%

Q209 Q309 Q409 Q110 Q210 Q310

Retail Vacancy Rates by Product Type

Community Centers Neighborhood Centers Anchorless Strip

Retail: Quarterly Asking Lease Rates

$0.50

$1.00

$1.50

$2.00

$2.50

$3.00

Q3 07

Q4 07

Q1 08

Q208

Q308

Q408

Q109

Q209

Q309

Q409

Q110

Q210

Q310

Retail: Yearly Rental Rates

$0.00

$0.50

$1.00

$1.50

$2.00

$2.50

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

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New Supply (Completions) and Market Demand

Developers have halted many projects resulting in no new con-

struction completions during Th ird quarter. With the continued

hesitation of developers to build product, due to scarce construc-

tion fi nancing and weak rents, we also don’t expect much of the

planned product to come online any time soon. Future new supply

levels will continue to shrink as market corrections are underway.

It may take another fi ve years for the housing market to become

stable, credit to start fl owing and employment to become active

again before any rise in construction numbers. For a smart recov-

ery, the retail market needs to solve the imbalance of supply and

demand by allowing existing vacant space to be absorbed and wait

out this business cycle before any major growth should happen.

Outlook

As fall weather approaches so does the seasonal changes to the

Retail market. While we hope the worst is over, we still are cau-

tions of the slight improvement that we have witnessed during 3rd

quarter 2010. During the quarter we may have experienced a tem-

porary improvement in the retail market due to the rise in spend-

ing from back-to-school shopping. We are also fast approaching

the short lived holiday seasonal consumer spending uptick and

vacancy drops as “pop-up” leasing begins with Halloween. Toys-

R-Us, Borders, Build-A-Bear and Harry & David are expected to

be the mayor players in “pop-up” openings across the nation during

this holiday season. Some retailers, who are gaining confi dence in

the local market, are also said to be using this holiday “pop-up”

season to experiment with the vacant locations to see the potential

sales volumes and shopper traffi c to see if the “pop-up” locations

may transition into a permanent locations. Th is could also result in

permanent jobs for some of the holiday workers employed at these

“pop-up” locations. Another positive sign on a National retail level

comes from the recent announcing for plans of new store open-

ings from major department stores. Target plans to open 10 new

Retail: Vacancy (%) and Ave. Lease Rates

$1.84$1.71

$1.87

$1.63$1.46$1.57

$1.41

$1.97

$1.28

$1.51

0.00%

5.00%

10.00%

15.00%

20.00%

25.00%

30.00%

Centra

l East

Centra

l West East

Green V

alley

Hende

rson

Nellis

North L

as Vega

s

Northwest

South

west

Summerl

in

$0.00

$0.50

$1.00

$1.50

$2.00

$2.50

“We will have to wait and see if consumer confi dence remains positive, with spending levels rising and unemployment starting to improve.”

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stores by October, JCPenney, plans to open two, and Kohl’s has

announced plans to open 21 new stores in 15 states.

Th e question now for the Las Vegas Market is to wait and see is if

the holiday season will just produce a temporary recovery or will it

start to produce a true recovery in the coming year. We will have to

wait and see if consumer confi dence remains positive, with spending

levels rising and unemployment starting to improve. Th is will help

vacancy to really drop as retailers begin to expand into 7.2 million

square feet of current vacant space in the market. Even with these

positive indicators we still expect to see a slow recovery. With more

than 50 big box retailers closing up shop since 2007 and Sakes de-

partment stores still exiting the Nevada market, it will take time to

fi ll these vacant spots. However, as consumers are watchful of their

spending habits and are looking for values, we are hopeful that dis-

count retailer’s such as, Ross, Wal-Mart, TJMax, Burlington Coat

Factory, and Hobby Lobby, to name a few, will take charge and help

lease up some of the vacant big box space and start to really turn the

retail market around in the next three to four years.

RULES FOR MARKET REVIEW

Only existing properties, for lease >=20,000 square feet are included in the market reviews

TYPE

Regional Mall. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Enclosed Mall

Regional Center . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . >= 350,000 Sf

Community Center . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . >= 100,000 And <= 349,999 Sf

Neighborhood Center . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . >= 50,000 And <= 99,999 Sf

Anchorless Strip . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . <= 49,999 Sf

Freestanding . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Freestanding

Las Vegas Retail Overview 2005-2010 YTD

7.40%

3.90%

12.99%

4.31%3.71%

13.02%

0

1,000,000

2,000,000

3,000,000

4,000,000

5,000,000

6,000,000

7,000,000

8,000,000

9,000,000

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

$1.75 $1.92 $2.04 $2.15 $1.85 $1.63

44.50 48.73 50.06 50.40 55.88 55.61

Year

Ave Lease Rate

Base * Sf Millions

Squa

re F

eet

0.00%

2.00%

4.00%

6.00%

8.00%

10.00%

12.00%

14.00%

16.00%

18.00%

Vaca

ncy

Built Vacant Inventory Vacancy

Note: Due to reclassifi cations of, and adjustments to, data between reporting periods, the commercial market data for the latest quarter may not necessarily be comparable to a previously reported quarter.

7


No. of Existing Under Const. Planned Net Gross NewBldgs. SF SF SF SF Rate Absorption Spaced Supply Low High Weighted Avg.

Central EastCommunity Centers 20 3,341,495 - - 424,980 12.72% 33,248 57,286 - $0.50 $3.00 $1.52Freestanding 6 232,766 - - - 0.00% - - - Neighborhood Centers 6 492,815 - - 113,492 23.03% (14,260) 4,485 - $0.90 $3.75 $1.68Anchorless Strip 40 1,497,230 - - 241,007 16.10% 16,820 54,346 - $0.50 $3.00 $1.37Total 72 5,564,306 - - 779,479 14.01% 35,808 116,117 - $0.50 $3.75 $1.51

Central WestCommunity Centers 29 4,980,163 - - 393,702 7.91% (26,001) 53,626 - $0.65 $3.23 $1.33Freestanding 6 512,437 - - 1,200 0.23% - - - $1.00 $1.60 $1.46Neighborhood Centers 17 1,300,033 - - 131,117 10.09% (7,609) 5,271 - $0.60 $2.50 $1.42Anchorless Strip 41 1,458,720 - - 197,887 13.57% 46,375 52,231 - $0.50 $2.50 $1.05Total 93 8,251,353 - - 723,906 8.77% 12,765 111,128 - $0.50 $3.23 $1.28

EastCommunity Centers 16 2,532,242 - - 462,836 18.28% (43,794) 31,901 - $0.50 $3.50 $1.44Freestanding 2 77,234 - - - 0.00% - - - Neighborhood Centers 2 181,777 - - - 0.00% - - - Anchorless Strip 12 402,940 - - 72,549 18.00% 11,136 16,020 - $0.50 $2.00 $1.36Total 32 3,194,193 - - 535,385 16.76% (32,658) 47,921 - $0.50 $3.50 $1.41

Green ValleyCommunity Centers 33 7,442,783 - - 615,019 8.26% 132,239 196,262 - $1.00 $4.00 $1.86Freestanding 3 263,856 - - 26,974 10.22% - - - $1.00 $1.00 $1.00Neighborhood Centers 22 2,055,795 - - 288,505 14.03% 17,135 37,782 - $1.00 $4.00 $1.86Anchorless Strip 27 834,058 - - 240,802 28.87% (13,847) 23,843 - $0.75 $3.00 $1.51Total 85 10,596,492 - - 1,171,300 11.05% 135,527 257,887 - $0.75 $4.00 $1.57

HendersonCommunity Centers 10 1,954,454 - - 500,392 25.60% 84,099 95,523 - $0.50 $4.00 $1.68Freestanding - - - - - - - - Neighborhood Centers 3 295,539 - - 8,442 2.86% 1,376 1,376 - $2.00 $2.50 $2.25Anchorless Strip 7 347,623 - - 128,753 37.04% (13,582) - - $0.50 $3.50 $1.98Total 20 2,597,616 - - 637,587 24.55% 71,893 96,899 - $0.50 $4.00 $1.97

NellisCommunity Centers 8 1,235,823 - - 72,682 5.88% 17,049 18,649 - $0.85 $2.55 $1.39Freestanding 2 100,340 - - - 0.00% - - - Neighborhood Centers 11 908,002 - - 125,629 13.84% 8,331 9,878 - $0.50 $3.25 $1.60Anchorless Strip 16 528,204 - - 85,695 16.22% (12,435) 8,087 - $0.70 $3.50 $1.39Total 37 2,772,369 - - 284,006 10.24% 12,945 36,614 - $0.50 $3.50 $1.46

North Las VegasCommunity Centers 25 4,917,861 - - 779,546 15.85% 4,762 49,804 - $0.50 $3.75 $1.98Freestanding - - - - - - - - Neighborhood Centers 16 1,444,702 - - 313,403 21.69% 61,226 72,318 - $0.65 $2.75 $1.61Anchorless Strip 12 435,959 - - 152,787 35.05% 6,249 17,552 - $0.49 $3.50 $1.31Total 53 6,798,522 - - 1,245,736 18.32% 72,237 139,674 - $0.49 $3.75 $1.63

NorthwestCommunity Centers 17 3,451,348 - - 262,591 7.61% 61,714 70,927 - $0.81 $3.15 $1.84Freestanding - - - - - - - - Neighborhood Centers 18 702,120 - - 110,358 15.72% 17,179 17,899 - $0.95 $3.25 $2.16Anchorless Strip 13 366,302 - - 103,761 28.33% 8,770 19,901 - $0.90 $3.25 $1.62Total 48 4,519,770 - - 476,710 10.55% 87,663 108,727 - $0.81 $3.25 $1.87

SouthwestCommunity Centers 15 4,176,004 - - 563,092 13.48% (14,993) 15,974 - $0.95 $3.50 $1.90Freestanding - - - - - - - - Neighborhood Centers 10 962,756 - - 50,013 5.19% 209 2,630 - $1.00 $2.55 $1.58Anchorless Strip 44 1,630,125 - - 280,028 17.18% 31,794 68,292 - $0.50 $4.25 $1.66Total 69 6,768,885 - - 893,133 13.19% 17,010 86,896 - $0.50 $4.25 $1.71

SummerlinCommunity Centers 18 3,602,518 - - 360,271 10.00% (19,569) 33,177 - $0.75 $3.50 $2.17Freestanding - - - - - 0.00% - - - Neighborhood Centers 8 515,641 - - 17,692 3.43% 7,012 7,012 - $0.80 $3.00 $1.83Anchorless Strip 13 428,398 - - 97,501 22.76% 1,678 11,638 - $1.00 $3.00 $1.52Total 39 4,546,557 - - 475,464 10.46% (10,879) 51,827 - $0.75 $3.50 $1.84

Las Vegas TotalCommunity Centers 191 37,634,691 - - 4,435,111 11.78% 228,754 623,129 - $0.50 $4.00 $1.71Freestanding 19 1,186,633 - - 28,174 2.37% - - - $1.00 $1.60 $1.23Neighborhood Centers 113 8,859,180 - - 1,158,651 13.08% 90,599 158,651 - $0.50 $4.00 $1.78Anchorless Strip 225 7,929,559 - - 1,600,770 20.19% 82,958 271,910 - $0.49 $4.25 $1.48Total 548 55,610,063 - - 7,222,706 12.99% 402,311 1,053,690 - $0.49 $4.25 $1.63

Commerce Real Estate SolutionsLas Vegas Retail Market Report Q3 2010

Vacancy Asking Rent (NNN)Inventory Vacancy Demand & Supply Pricing

8


9


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10


Dan HubbardRobin Civish, CCIM Liz Clare, CCIM Todd Manning

LAS VEGAS RETAIL TEAM

Michael McDay Jacqueline YoungKelli Naziri

11


GIS / MAPPING DEPARTMENT

Th e GIS / Mapping services group provides

our agents and clients with the most current

information available. Using GIS (Geo-

graphic Information Services) allows our cli-

ents a unique opportunity to visualize where

their property is located. Additional market

information includes:

Daily traffi c count information•

Local drive times•

Demographic information•

Population growth•

Major tenants in the region and trade •

areas

Some clients that have benefi ted from our

mapping / GIS technology are; Wal-Mart,

JoAnn’s, Carmax, Toys-R-Us, Discount Tire,

Lowe’s Home Improvement, Shoe Carnival,

Chase Bank, Staples, Pacifi Corp, GSA, Intel,

Fidelity Investments, Social Security Admin-

istration, Salt Lake City School District and

JP Morgan Bank.

RESEARCH DEPARTMENT

Th e Commerce Real Estate Solutions Re-

search team is charged with tracking the

Utah, Nevada and Seattle commercial real

estate markets and providing current market

information. With access to industry data-

bases and prime real estate tools, the research

team is well-equipped to support the infor-

mation needs of the local offi ces.

Th e Las Vegas researcher tracks leasing ac-

tivity for 182 million square feet of offi ce,

medical offi ce, industrial and retail proper-

ties. In addition to tracking local properties,

the research team prepares quality market

reports and research economic and demo-

graphic trends. Working in tandem with the

other offi ce specialty support groups such as

mapping, graphic design and marketing, the

Research team strives to provide timely and

quality information to enable Commerce

professionals to better serve their clients.

MARKETING DEPARTMENT

Th e graphic design department at Commerce

Real Estate Solutions employs eight full time

graphic designers. Each of our designers

has a number of years of experience. Chris

Valentin, the design director, has been with

Commerce Real Estate Solutions for over

fourteen years, and along with Matt Liapis,

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fi ce consists a team of two well trained and

professional designers with a combined 12

plus years of experience.

Th e founding principal behind the design

department is “to provide our agents with

whatever materials necessary to successfully

market their projects”. Th is resource allows

us to vividly show the retail prospect why

they need to be located in a certain segment

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Adobe design programs, and is integrated

with our mapping and research departments.

WEB: WWW.COMRE.COM

Commerce Real Estate Solutions was at

the forefront in the use of the World Wide

Web by commercial real estate fi rms and has

maintained a web site for over ten years. All

of our commercial properties are listed and

searchable by use, size, price, and location.

In addition to commercial properties, our

Web site has agent profi les, information

about Commerce Real Estate Solutions of-

fi ces throughout the intermountain west, a

company history, and links to valuable in-

formation including a link to the Cushman

and Wakefi eld Web site. Th e Web site also

has downloadable copies of all our Market

Reviews dating back to 1996.

“Commerce Real Estate Solutions is a regional real estate fi rm with international ties, dedicated fi rst and foremost to our cli-ents. With the industry’s premier professionals, and industry leading technology, our mission is to exceed our clients’ expec-tations through service excellence.”

Commerce Real Estate Solutions

3800 Howard Hughes Parkway, Suite 1200

Las Vegas, NV 89169

702-796-7900 (T)

702-796-7920 (F)

www.comre.com

©2010, Commerce Real Estate Solutions. Disclaimer: Th e above information is given with the obligation that all negotiations relating to the purchase, renting, or leasing of the property described above shall be conducted through Commerce Real Estate Solutions. No warranty or representation, express or implied, is made as to the accuracy of the information contained herein, and same is submitted subject to errors, omissions, change of price, rental or other encumbrances, withdrawal without notice, and to any special listing conditions imposed by the seller. Prospective buyers should conduct their own due diligence. Some aerial photography by DigitalGlobe or Aerials Express.

commerce real estate solutions 3rd qtr 2010 retail report

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