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Disclosures and Disclaimer : This report must be read with the disclosures in the Disclosure appendix, and with the Disclaimer, which forms part of it. This document does not contain any investment views or opinions.
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Welcome Note
Monday30th July, 2018
Stock Of The Day: (F & O)
Forecast and Analysis
CONTENTSCONTENTS
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Title Page No.
'30,000 feet view’: The big picture of Dalal Street 04-07
Stock Of The Day: (F & O) 08-09
Equity Derivatives 10
Daily Pivot Table (Equities) 11
Forecast and Analysis 12-14
Daily Pivot Table (Commodities) 15
Disclaimer 16
'30,000 feet view’:
The big picture of Dalal Street
'30,000 feet view’:
The big picture of Dalal Street
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'30,000 feet view’: newsletter provides insights and themes for Indian equity markets. We also try and cover international themes for the day. This newsletter is quite popular with traders as it covers the most preferred trading strategy for Sensex/Nifty for the day.
In Chart of the day section, we recommend a stock which is likely to move significantly in the short term, clearly defining the supports, the resistances and bias for the stock.
In a nutshell, '30,000 feet view’: covers themes and insights for the day.
‘30,000 feet view’: The big picture of Dalal Street
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Nifty Outlook
Intraday
Medium Term
Long Term
Key Levels to Watch
Nifty Support
Nifty Resistance
Pivot Level
Nifty
Outlook for the Day
INDICES
Nifty
Bank Nifty
Nifty Auto Index
Nifty FMCG Index
Nifty Infra Index
Nifty IT Index
Nifty Media Index
Nifty Midcap Index
Nifty Metal Index
Nifty Pharma Index
Nifty Reality Index
Nifty Smallcap Index
Sensex
SGX Nifty
‘30,000 feet view’: The big picture of Dalal Street
Good Morning & Welcome to first trading day of the week at Dalal Street, dated
30th July 2018.
This Monday morning, all bullish eyes will be on Reliance Industries’ stock price, after the
firm on Friday (after market close) reported a record net profit of Rs. 9,459 crore for the
April-June period and most importantly petro chemical margins came as a surprise.
Reliance Jio, too posted a profit of Rs. 612 crore in the quarter ended June 30, versus Rs.
510 crore in the previous quarter.
Also helping sentiments would be Q1 of Bank Of Baroda which reported a 160% jump in
net profit to Rs 528.3 crore for the quarter ended June. Interestingly, the profit was driven
by healthy net interest income (NII), stable loan growth and lower provisions.
Long story short: The landscape for equities at Dalal Street remains fairly constructive
on backdrop of better than expected Q1 results of Reliance (RIL), Bajaj Finance, Federal
Bank, Biocon, Indusind Bank, L&T Finance, Jubilant Foods, Larsen, Rallies, and JSW Steel.
The results are quite spectacular and indicate lots of confidence about earnings growth in
the near future despite some misses from names like Bajaj Auto, Dr. Reddys Lab and ICICI
Bank.
Focus will now immediately shift to next batch of Q1: Commanding attention in
today’s trade will be Q1 of ESCORTS & HDFC. Prominent firms announcing Q1 are:
• Monday: AXIS BANK, CANFIN HOMES, CENTURY TEXTILE, CHENNAI PETRO,
DMART, ESCORTS, GODREJ CONSUMER, HDFC, IDEA, IDFC, IDFC BANNK,
INDIGO, JP ASSOCIATE, TECH MAHINDRA, SHREE CEMENT.
What Technical Tells Us on Nifty: Nifty ended Friday’s session with modest gains, up
0.99% at 11,278.35.
The positive takeaway was that the market breadth, indicating the overall health of the
market, was strong. The BSE Mid-Cap index rose 0.95% and the BSE Small-Cap index rose
0.88%, more or less matching Sensex’s strength.
Technically speaking, Nifty is now in uncharted territory, aggressive targets in
near term could be at 11,500 zone.
The must watch support levels are placed at 11221 & then at 11151. The technical
landscape will worsen only if Nifty slips below the 10,821 mark as that would open the door
to massive technical selling, possibly quickly to the 10,451-10,501 zone.
Going forward, regardless of being at unchartered territory, Nifty’s daily chart shows that
there's further room to go up, amidst latest breakout set-up after the long consolidative
phase. The momentum technical indicators are in bullish mode. For the day, we believe,
Nifty may most likely to trade with positive bias and the benchmark most probably will aim
to close above 11,301 mark.
Having said that, aggressive buying advised only on any sharp corrective declines.
Meanwhile, the price action for Nifty is suggesting that we are likely to see a 10,901-11,425
range in near term with positive bias.
Outlook for Monday: Stock specific action will command
attention.
In a historic moment at Dalal Street, the benchmark Nifty scaled fresh-all-time high in
Friday’s trade. Nifty now enters uncharted territory.
The big question: To buy or not to buy after Nifty’s record levels?
To start with, the ongoing rally is backed by sings that till date, the corporate profits are on
the rise, if not strong. The street is also quite optimistic that the global economy remains in
11278 0.99%
27634 0.83%
10875 0.97%
30749 2.37%
3135 0.48%
14518 0.34%
2827 0.02%
4983 1.01%
3298 1.93%
9039 0.49%
268 0.54%
7403 1.15%
37338 0.95%
11318 0.01%
Positive session likely.
Positive (11211-11311)
Neutral (10551-11501)
Neutral (12001)
11221 & 11151
11311 & 11501
10751
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Technical Strategy
‘30,000 feet view’: The big picture of Dalal Street
the growth path.
Our call of the day suggests there are lots of encouraging bullish signals that are likely to
prompt investors to buy more equities in expectation of more future gains.
Bargain hunting, value buying and short covering could be the probable theme, as we
suspect the rally likely to be broad, and most importantly, a joyful rally most likely.
Judging by early action at SGX Nifty, it’s likely that the benchmark Nifty will have a positive
trading session. Nifty bulls will continue to just jump over the moon. Expect stock specific
action to command attention as many a mid-cap stocks likely to skyrocket.
Make hay while the sun shines.
Global cues:
• In Friday’s action at Wall Street, Wall Street ended lower following
disappointing results from Twitter Inc, Exxon and Intel. The highly-anticipated
release of gross domestic product data also showed that economic growth
remains relatively strong but came in a shade below lofty expectations.
For the week, the Dow added 1.6%, the S&P 500 rose 0.6%, and the Nasdaq
fell 1.1%. Both the Dow and the S&P posted their fourth straight weekly gains,
the longest such streak since January.
Commodity Cues:
• In commodities, oil prices were trading firm with clear positive bias after Saudi
Arabia suspended crude shipments through a strategic Red Sea shipping lane
and as data showed U.S. inventories fell to a 3-1/2 year low.
• On Friday, Gold prices settled lower for the day and week as the yellow metal
found few catalysts to climb out of a recent downtrend.
• Copper prices too were trading soft in Friday’s trade, unable to stage a major
rebound from its lowest level in a year.
Currencies & Bonds:
• In Friday’s trade, the U.S. dollar traded with negative bias in the wake of report
of second-quarter gross domestic product which underperformed lofty
expectations, but underscored a buoyant economy.
• USD/INR was seen consolidating in Friday’s trade. Key interweek support seen
at 68.45. Hurdles now seen at 69.11. Intraday Strategy: Sell between 68.81-
68.87 zone, targeting 68.45 zone with stop ABOVE 69.21.
Macro Watch:
• The U.S economy saw fastest pace of growth in almost four years after
consumers and government spending powered the economy to a 4.1% rate of
gross domestic product growth in the second quarter.
President Donald Trump responded to the data as “amazing” and “very
sustainable.”
The big question at investors’ top of mind now is: Whether the Federal Reserve
continue with its plans for rate increases.
• All anxious eyes will also be on the progress on monsoon. The street will also keep a
close eye on the movement of Indian Rupee and the Crude-Oil prices as that could
influence investors’ sentiment.
VGUARD
Action
Target
Support
Resistance
Holding Period
213.7
BUY
227.5
202.50/195
227.50/255
21 Days.
In Friday’s trade, VGUARD was seen attempting a
major rebound, up 3.56%.
Technically, VGUARD is attempting a rebound on
daily charts and signaling a major breakout on the
weekly charts.
The stock is still in consolidation mode and the
momentum oscillators will shift on buy mode on
any move above 255 and such up move needs to
be backed by increases in volumes.
Key support to watch in near term is at 202.50
zone. Medium term supports seen at 195 zone.
Interweek perspective: Establish long
positions on declines to 207-211 zone, targeting
227.50 zone and then at 245-251 zone with strict
stop at 197.
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‘30,000 feet view’: The big picture of Dalal Street
• The Monsoon session of Parliament began from July 18 and will end on August 10th 2018. The Agenda includes 11 legislative bills
currently pending in parliament for consideration and passing. Nine new bills are also proposed to be introduced.
IPO Watch:
• The Rs 2,800-crore initial public offer of HDFC Asset Management Company received overwhelming response as the issue was
subscribed 83 times.
Stocks To Watch:
• Our chart of the day which suggests establishing long positions in stocks like INDUSIND BANK, BHARAT FINANCIAL and
APOLLO TYRES with intermonth perspective.
• Bullish stocks: BHARAT FINANCIAL, APOLLO TYRES, EXIDE, BALKRISHNA INDUSTRIES, UPL, TATA ELXSI, BAJAJ FINANCE,
RAYMONDS, INDUSIND BANK.
• Bearish stocks: MINDTREE, HEXAWARE.
• ICICI Bank reported a surprise first-quarter net loss on Friday on higher provisions for bad loans and treasury losses. The bank made
a net loss of Rs. 120 crore ($17.47 million) in the three months to June 30, compared with a profit of Rs. 2,049 crore a year earlier.
• Biocon’s Q1 profit zooms 47.2 percent to Rs 119.7 crore versus Rs 81.3 crore; revenue increases 21.2 percent to Rs 1,123.8 crore
versus Rs 927.4 crore (YoY).
• Show Me the Money: Buy BHARAT FINANCIAL (CMP 1205.75): BHARAT FINANCIAL was seen inching up in Friday's trade, up
1.27%. The sequence of higher high/low still intact on weekly and monthly charts. Interweek Strategy: Buy at CMP, targeting
1227.50 and then more aggressive targets located at 1291-1305 zone. Stop below 1161.
Q1 TO TRICKLE IN:
• Monday: AXIS BANK, CANFIN HOMES, CENTURY TEXTILE, CHENNAI PETRO, DMART, ESCORTS, GODREJ CONSUMER, GSPL, GUJ
GAS, HDFC, IDEA, IDFC, IDFC BANNK, INDIGO, JP ASSOCIATE, SRI PIPES, TECH MAHINDRA, RITIES, SHREE CEMENT, SOLAR
INDUSTRIES, TECH MAHINDRA, TEX RAIL.
• Tuesday: AJANTPHARM, ANKINDIA, BASF, BEL, CASTROL, BLUE DART, DABUR, DCMSHRIRAM, GSFC, IGPL, MAITHANALL, MGL,
RAYMOND, UPL, VEDL, VGUARD.
• Wednesday: APOLLO TYRES, BALLARPUR, EXIDE, FDC, GDL, HEG, PIDILITIND, RELINFRA, TATAGLOBAL, V2RETAIL, ZUARI.
• Thursday: AKZOINDIA, CAPF, GODREJ PROP, IBULHSGFIN, MANPASAND, MARICO, ONGC, RAMCOIND, TCI.
• Friday: BERGEPAINT, BHARATGEAR, GUJALKALI, ENIL, ICIL, KEC, NESTLEIND NILKAMAL, SAIL, VIP INDUSTRIES.
• Stocks banned in F&O segment for today: NIL.
Bulls Vs. Bears: Time to Pick a Side!!
According to momentum analysis, the bulls are in total charge —
It’s most likely that Nifty will trade above the magical 11,301 mark.
Preferred trade on Nifty: Nifty (11278): Buy between 11221-
11245 zone, targeting 11311 and then at 11391-11501 zone with
stop at 10991.
Preferred trade on Bank Nifty: Bank Nifty (27634): Establish
long positions between 27275-27351 zone, targeting 27750 zone
and then at 27901-28001 zone with strict stop at 26951.
Daily Chart of Nifty:
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Comfort stock of the day
Stock Of The Day: (F & O)
When we want to see what's happening far off, we will reach for the binoculars. The binocular helps us to steer out of danger and also accurately spots our targets.
When it comes to trading / investing, that's exactly how Stock Of The Day: (F & O) introduces to the momentum stocks from the list of Future & Option segment, defining their support and resistance levels, and attempts to forecast their movement with a short /medium term perspective.
Stock Of The Day: (F & O)
R2STOCKS LTP S1 S2 R1 TRADING STRATEGYBIAS
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Stock Of The Day: (F & O)
Momentum osillators continue to signal strength. Apollo Tyres is aiming to close above its all-time-high at 307 mark. Interweek Strategy: Buy between 281-283 zone, targeting 292.50 zone and then more aggressive targets located at 303-311 zone. Stop below 265.
Balkrishna Industries is signaling a major breakout from a a probable 'flag pattern' on monthly charts. Key support seen at 1157 zone. Key hurdles seen at 1245. Interweek Strategy: Buy at CMP, targeting 1245 and then at 1325-1351 zone. Stop below 1141.
The sequence of higher high/low still intact on daily, weekly and monthly charts. The interweek risk is on the upside with immediate targets at 275. Interweek Strategy: Buy between 267.50-269 zone, targeting 279 and then at 283-287.50 zone with stop below 263.45.
BHARAT FINANCIAL was seen inching up in Friday's trade, up 1.27%. The sequence of higher high/low still intact on weekly and monthly charts. Interweek Strategy: Buy at CMP, targeting 1227.50 and then more aggressive targets located at 1291-1305 zone. Stop below 1161.
Positive bias for FEDERAL BANK as long as 85.45 support is held. Interweek Strategy: Buy between 86.50-88 zone, targeting 93 and then more aggressive targets located at 97-101 zone. Stop below 84.45
BHARAT FINANCIAL stock price could top 1301 before August series.
APOLLO TYRES
BALKRISHNA INDUSTRIES
EXIDE INDUSTRIES
BHARAT FINANCIAL
FEDERAL BANK
290.4 277.05 265 295 311 Positive
1187 1157 1110 1245 1351 Positive
273.5 267.5 257.5 279 287.5 Positive
1205.75 1183 1161 1225 1301 Positive
90.8 85.45 81.5 93 101 Positive
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EQUITY DERIVATIVESLooking into the future from present.
Changes in Open Interest (OI) in yesterday’s trade.
Nifty Spot
Bank Nifty Future
VIX
Premium
Nifty Future OI
Bank Nifty Spot OI
BSE Cash Vol. (Rs. in Cr)
NSE Cash Vol.(Rs. in Cr)
NSE Derivative Vol. (Rs. in Cr)
Index Future Volumes
Stock Future Volumes
Index Option Volumes
Stock Option Volumes
Total
Cash Volumes (INR in Cr.)
YesterdayDay Before Yesterday
Derivatives Vol.(INR in Cr.)
No of contracts
Turnover (Rs. In cr.)
Major Changes in Nifty Options (OI)
Monday30th July, 2018
Market Summary: The bull market is alive, kicking and into uncharted territory! Well, Friday was another great day at Dalal Street, with the benchmark Sensex breaking above
the 37,000 level, to close the day at 37,337 after adding 352 points. Nifty gained 111 points and
closed the day at 11,278 while Bank Nifty gained 228 points, to close at 27634. All the three indices ended at their life time closing highs! The market breadth, indicating the
overall health of the market, was strong. The BSE Mid-Cap index rose 0.95%. The BSE Small-
Cap index rose 0.88%. ITC, Reliance Industries & ICICI Bank were the star performers. The rally was backed by signs that till date, the corporate profits are on the rise, if not strong.
The street is also quite optimistic that the global economy remains in the growth path. Amongst the sectoral indices, outperforming the Sensex/Nifty were BSE FMCG Index (up
2.04%), BSE Consumer Durables Index (up 2.03%), BSE Metal Index (up 1.89%)
Amongst the sectoral indices, underperforming the Sensex/Nifty were BSE IT Index (down
0.02%), BSE Teck Index (up 0.08%).
Amongst stock specific action, positive bias was seen in stocks like ITC (up 5.01%), IOC
(4.12%), Tata Motors (up 3.89%)
Among stocks drifting down were: Dr. Reddy (down 2.36%), Bajaj Finserv (down 1.57%),
Adani Ports (down 1.08%).
Maximum Call Open Interest (OI) stands at 11500 Strike Price, followed by 11400 Strike Price
for August Series. Call buying continued at strike prices 11100-11600 for August expiry.
Maximum Put Open Interest (OI) was seen at strike price 11000 followed by 10,500 strike price
for August series. Put writing was the theme at 10500-11400 strike prices for August series. As per Friday’s provisional data available on the NSE, Foreign institutional investors (FIIs)
bought shares worth Rs. 738.05 crores. Domestic institutional investors too, bought shares
worth Rs. 406.12 crores in the Indian equity market.
Highest OI Nifty: Calls 11500: 27.58 L - Puts 11000: 38.54 L
Highest OI Bank Nifty: Calls 27500: 6.03 L - Puts 26000: 6.52 L
Change in Stock Open Interest (OI) in previous day’s trade.
Long Buildup: HINDALCO, RELIANCE, ITC, IOC, BALRAMCHIN.
Short Buildup: HUL, TCS, CHOLAFIN, MCX.
Short Covering: BPCL, TECHM, ADANIENT, JINDALSTL, ICICI BANK.
Long Unwinding: DHFL, NESTLE, TV18BRDCST.
Stocks banned in F&O segment for today: NIL
New In Ban: NIL.
Out of Ban: ADANI ENT.
Future Call: BUY VEDANTA AUGUST FUTURES at CMP 221.55.
Targets: 229.50 and then at 240. Stop: 213. Holding Period: 0-3
days. Analyst’s Remark: Momentum Play. (VEDANTA August Futures
CMP 221.55).
Option Call: SELL RELIANCE INDUSTRIES (RIL) AUGUST PE strike
price 1060 at CMP 9.35. Maximum Profit: Rs. 9350. Loss: Unlimited.
Stop: Exit Put option if Reliance Closes below 1110. (RELIANCE
INDUSTRIES August Futures CMP 1135.50).
11278.35 (+0.99%)
27634.40 (+0.83%)
12.31 (+2.35%)
+31 vs +43
2.27 crores (+9.48%)
25.34 lakhs (+10.63%)
3214.85 3553.76
33484.76 43977.3
415201 1781228
159447 14982
861774 59104
2961410 295946
598578 45169
4581209 415201
Callsin lakhs (%Change)
11400 17.56 (+50%)
11300 16.15 (+23%)
11500 27.58 (+15%)
Putsin lakhs (% Change)
11200 21.61 (+92%)
11000 38.54 (+19%)
11100 21.18 (+37%)
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DAILY PIVOT TABLE
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Instrument Close S1 S2 R1 R2 200 Day SMA Reversal Point Trend
All level indicated above are based on cash market prices.
Pivot Point
PP : Pivot Point : This is trigger point for weekly buy/sell based on the price range of the previous week.R1 : Resistance one : 1st Resistance over PP. R2 : Resistance two : 2nd Resistance over R1.S1 : Support one : 1st support after PP. S2 : Support Two : 2nd support after S1.
As per the tool, the trader should take BUY position just above PP and keep the stop loss of PP and the first target would be R1.If R1 is crossed then R2 becomes the next target with the stop loss at R1.
Similarly if price goes below PP the trader should SELL and keep the PP as Stop loss and the first target would be S1.
If S1 is crossed then S2 becomes the next target with the stop loss at S1.This is a trading tool. The key to use of this tool is the use of STOP LOSS.
Monday30th July, 2018
NIFTY 11278.35 11231.27 11184.18 11304.42 11330.48 11257.33 10537.54 UP
BANKNIFTY 27634.4 27505.92 27377.43 27711.97 27789.54 27583.48 25666.61 UP
NIFTYMID50 4983.1 4956.83 4930.57 5006.38 5029.67 4980.12 5147.59 DOWN
ACC 1535 1515.43 1495.87 1553.28 1571.57 1533.72 1583.09 DOWN
ADANIENT 195.9 188.68 181.47 204.93 213.97 197.72 153.72 UP
ADANIPORTS 394.65 389.72 384.78 401.02 407.38 396.08 395.58 DOWN
AJANTPHARM 1095.3 1056.03 1016.77 1123.53 1151.77 1084.27 1263.6 DOWN
ALBK 45.15 44.4 43.65 46.1 47.05 45.35 57.75 DOWN
AMARAJABAT 792.35 783.6 774.85 801.5 810.65 792.75 794.09 DOWN
ANDHRABANK 33.3 32.57 31.83 34.07 34.83 33.33 47.21 DOWN
APOLLOTYRE 290.4 284.67 278.93 294.92 299.43 289.18 265.51 UP
ARVIND 426.15 419.97 413.78 433.62 441.08 427.43 414.5 UP
ASHOKLEY 112.85 111.53 110.22 113.83 114.82 112.52 133.43 DOWN
ASIANPAINT 1434.85 1422.13 1409.42 1450.78 1466.72 1438.07 1200 UP
AUROPHARMA 591.05 582.7 574.35 598.85 606.65 590.5 636.98 DOWN
AXISBANK 553.25 542 530.75 559.75 566.25 548.5 535.62 UP
BAJAJ-AUTO 2686.75 2645.5 2604.25 2712.5 2738.25 2671.25 3036.21 DOWN
BAJAJFINSV 6927.2 6847.17 6767.13 7053.62 7180.03 6973.58 5404.42 UP
BAJFINANCE 2713.7 2679 2644.3 2736.45 2759.2 2701.75 1907.97 UP
BALKRISIND 1187.3 1165.83 1144.37 1222.73 1258.17 1201.27 1114.86 UP
BALRAMCHIN 70.75 68.43 66.12 72.18 73.62 69.87 106.97 DOWN
BANKBARODA 137.85 135.2 132.55 140.7 143.55 138.05 147.94 DOWN
BANKINDIA 97.8 95.85 93.9 99.6 101.4 97.65 132.34 DOWN
BATAINDIA 916.3 908.77 901.23 927.67 939.03 920.13 764.89 UP
BEL 102.5 100.88 99.27 103.63 104.77 102.02 149.32 DOWN
BEML 820.6 800.07 779.53 833.07 845.53 812.53 1256.22 DOWN
BERGEPAINT 318.9 315.87 312.83 322.87 326.83 319.83 267.31 UP
BHARATFIN 1205.75 1188.75 1171.75 1218.2 1230.65 1201.2 1073.92 UP
BHARATFORG 630.75 623.28 615.82 639.08 647.42 631.62 697.93 DOWN
BHARTIARTL 364.7 352.93 341.17 375.18 385.67 363.42 433.4 DOWN
BHEL 71.15 70.4 69.65 72 72.85 71.25 86.47 DOWN
BIOCON 586.2 565.32 544.43 610.77 635.33 589.88 561.24 UP
BPCL 397.2 387.83 378.47 402.78 408.37 393.42 449.68 DOWN
BRITANNIA 6385.2 6336.8 6288.4 6466.8 6548.4 6418.4 5183.54 UP
CANBK 279.25 274.47 269.68 283.27 287.28 278.48 305.72 DOWN
CANFINHOME 369.15 358.65 348.15 375.8 382.45 365.3 443.22 DOWN
CAPF 532.25 520.57 508.88 540.22 548.18 528.53 649.63 DOWN
CASTROLIND 174.2 167.77 161.33 177.97 181.73 171.53 188.7 DOWN
CEATLTD 1391.85 1361.28 1330.72 1416.13 1440.42 1385.57 1596.18 DOWN
CENTURYTEX 941.95 922.03 902.12 960.83 979.72 940.92 1186.88 DOWN
CESC 951.7 922.63 893.57 969.13 986.57 940.07 1006.93 DOWN
CGPOWER 63.3 61.63 59.97 65.08 66.87 63.42 78.49 DOWN
CHOLAFIN 1463.35 1411 1358.65 1551.35 1639.35 1499 1417.28 UP
CIPLA 636.2 627.43 618.67 643.43 650.67 634.67 593.2 UP
COALINDIA 262.15 258.9 255.65 266.15 270.15 262.9 281.37 DOWN
COLPAL 1102.5 1078.13 1053.77 1116.28 1130.07 1091.92 1107.49 DOWN
CONCOR 650.45 639.38 628.32 663.73 677.02 652.67 663.47 DOWN
CUMMINSIND 679.6 667.98 656.37 693.28 706.97 681.67 794.61 DOWN
DABUR 386 377.67 369.33 391.07 396.13 382.73 352.68 UP
DALMIABHA 2711.7 2616.8 2521.9 2792.8 2873.9 2697.9 2824.82 DOWN
DCBBANK 166.7 163.9 161.1 170 173.3 167.2 179.52 DOWN
DHFL 615.6 607.83 600.07 627.08 638.57 619.32 590.97 UP
DISHTV 67.1 66.37 65.63 67.92 68.73 67.18 74.62 DOWN
DIVISLAB 1103 1084.48 1065.97 1114.13 1125.27 1095.62 1064.48 UP
DLF 190.5 187.67 184.83 193.92 197.33 191.08 215.28 DOWN
DRREDDY 2083.2 2055.4 2027.6 2123 2162.8 2095.2 2224.43 DOWN
EICHERMOT 28946.2 28498.17 28050.13 29197.12 29448.03 28749.08 29286.96 DOWN
ENGINERSIN 133.05 131.78 130.52 134.68 136.32 133.42 161.61 DOWN
EQUITAS 138.85 135 131.15 145.05 151.25 141.2 147.87 DOWN
ESCORTS 921.5 898.43 875.37 934.48 947.47 911.42 833.06 UP
EXIDEIND 273.5 270.8 268.1 276.1 278.7 273.4 229.39 UP
FEDERALBNK 90.8 88.45 86.1 92.95 95.1 90.6 98.52 DOWN
FORTIS 136.6 135.3 134 138.7 140.8 137.4 144.66 DOWN
GAIL 378.5 371.63 364.77 382.58 386.67 375.72 345.32 UP
GLENMARK 572.75 566.37 559.98 579.32 585.88 572.93 568.84 UP
GMRINFRA 18 17.78 17.57 18.28 18.57 18.07 18.44 DOWN
GODREJCP 1308.4 1280.88 1253.37 1343.43 1378.47 1315.92 1074.25 UP
GODREJIND 637.6 616.92 596.23 654.27 670.93 633.58 583.43 UP
GRANULES 101.15 98.53 95.92 104.33 107.52 101.72 112.65 DOWN
GRASIM 1025.45 1006.97 988.48 1036.97 1048.48 1018.48 1108.21 DOWN
GSFC 111.4 109.07 106.73 113.27 115.13 110.93 130.56 DOWN
HAVELLS 625.05 614.37 603.68 632.37 639.68 621.68 533.63 UP
HCC 11.55 10.98 10.42 11.98 12.42 11.42 27.97 DOWN
HCLTECH 963.45 952.73 942.02 971.93 980.42 961.22 928.56 UP
HDFC 2047.25 2030.35 2013.45 2057.05 2066.85 2040.15 1815.33 UP
HDFCBANK 2202.15 2187.25 2172.35 2214.5 2226.85 2199.6 1936.86 UP
HEROMOTOCO 3203.95 3144.53 3085.12 3250.88 3297.82 3191.47 3616.48 DOWN
HEXAWARE 458.1 450.92 443.73 464.37 470.63 457.18 382.3 UP
HINDALCO 213.4 210 206.6 218.8 224.2 215.4 242.41 DOWN
HINDPETRO 283.6 277.42 271.23 287.57 291.53 281.38 364.67 DOWN
HINDUNILVR 1659 1642.03 1625.07 1675.38 1691.77 1658.42 1416.67 UP
HINDZINC 273.85 270.4 266.95 276.8 279.75 273.35 303.53 DOWN
IBREALEST 155.1 152.93 150.77 157.88 160.67 155.72 200.11 DOWN
IBULHSGFIN 1315.85 1293.22 1270.58 1336.32 1356.78 1313.68 1234.41 UP
ICICIBANK 293.2 285.22 277.23 298.17 303.13 290.18 300.08 DOWN
ICICIPRULI 411.75 406.35 400.95 416.85 421.95 411.45 397.38 UP
ICIL 81.2 79.77 78.33 83.27 85.33 81.83 98.2 DOWN
IDBI 60.1 58.52 56.93 61.47 62.83 59.88 63.2 DOWN
IDEA 56.35 54.58 52.82 59.53 62.72 57.77 79.35 DOWN
IDFC 47.8 45.98 44.17 49.13 50.47 47.32 54.81 DOWN
IDFCBANK 39.3 38.45 37.6 39.95 40.6 39.1 49.83 DOWN
IFCI 16.35 16.1 15.85 16.7 17.05 16.45 21.89 DOWN
IGL 295.3 291.98 288.67 300.23 305.17 296.92 294.81 UP
INDIACEM 118.85 113.23 107.62 122.73 126.62 117.12 152.12 DOWN
INDIANB 353.35 348.55 343.75 357.3 361.25 352.5 341.16 UP
INDIGO 1009.1 999.77 990.43 1019.72 1030.33 1010.38 1217.41 DOWN
INDUSINDBK 1981.55 1961.97 1942.38 1994.97 2008.38 1975.38 1775.54 UP
INFIBEAM 183.3 175.8 168.3 189.4 195.5 181.9 158.18 UP
INFRATEL 289.45 285.43 281.42 292.13 294.82 288.12 346.41 DOWN
INFY 1373.45 1364.83 1356.22 1385.53 1397.62 1376.92 1128.67 UP
IOC 165.4 161.27 157.13 167.87 170.33 163.73 183.12 DOWN
IRB 202.35 199.43 196.52 206.78 211.22 203.87 230.02 DOWN
ITC 302.55 295.98 289.42 308.13 313.72 301.57 267.96 UP
JETAIRWAYS 312.95 308 303.05 317.9 322.85 312.95 593.89 DOWN
JINDALSTEL 203.7 198.2 192.7 207.1 210.5 201.6 219.36 DOWN
JISLJALEQS 82.25 80.78 79.32 83.23 84.22 81.77 108.88 DOWN
JPASSOCIAT 15 14.67 14.33 15.32 15.63 14.98 18.24 DOWN
JSWENERGY 66.75 64.28 61.82 69.03 71.32 66.57 78.93 DOWN
JSWSTEEL 323.25 316.13 309.02 328.23 333.22 321.12 295.12 UP
JUBLFOOD 1415.15 1386.77 1358.38 1432.27 1449.38 1403.88 1090.52 UP
JUSTDIAL 573.75 565.2 556.65 581.15 588.55 572.6 498.24 UP
KOTAKBANK 1311.1 1302.17 1293.23 1323.52 1335.93 1314.58 1138.77 UP
KPIT 298.1 288.43 278.77 304.58 311.07 294.92 218.17 UP
KSCL 607.6 597.4 587.2 617.4 627.2 607.2 527.34 UP
KTKBANK 116.25 115.53 114.82 117.28 118.32 116.57 134.33 DOWN
L&TFH 176.95 174.2 171.45 180.2 183.45 177.45 171.19 UP
LICHSGFIN 536.65 530.23 523.82 540.53 544.42 534.12 540.31 DOWN
LT 1311.45 1301.47 1291.48 1320.47 1329.48 1310.48 1296.03 UP
LUPIN 815.25 808.6 801.95 823.8 832.35 817.15 847.99 DOWN
M&M 909.85 903.13 896.42 916.23 922.62 909.52 786.18 UP
M&MFIN 516.5 505.02 493.53 527.42 538.33 515.93 463.51 UP
MANAPPURAM 104.05 103.1 102.15 105.05 106.05 104.1 108.67 DOWN
MARICO 361.15 355.45 349.75 370.8 380.45 365.1 319.6 UP
MARUTI 9310.4 9252.87 9195.33 9405.07 9499.73 9347.53 8889.59 UP
MCDOWELL-N 595.15 582.37 569.58 605.72 616.28 592.93 650.91 DOWN
MCX 829.3 819.7 810.1 841.4 853.5 831.8 844.12 DOWN
MGL 891.85 877.8 863.75 913.1 934.35 899.05 989.99 DOWN
MOTHERSUMI 318.7 312.3 305.9 322.95 327.2 316.55 339.04 DOWN
MRF 80860.45 79302.48 77744.52 81715.98 82571.52 80158.02 72025.92 UP
MRPL 80.8 79.17 77.53 82.12 83.43 80.48 112.18 DOWN
MUTHOOTFIN 412.4 398.13 383.87 420.73 429.07 406.47 426.52 DOWN
NATIONALUM 62.5 61.6 60.7 63.3 64.1 62.4 74.91 DOWN
NBCC 70.2 67.47 64.73 72.02 73.83 69.28 105.65 DOWN
NCC 93.9 92.43 90.97 94.98 96.07 93.52 115.38 DOWN
NMDC 103.8 102.37 100.93 104.87 105.93 103.43 124.06 DOWN
NTPC 154.95 152.95 150.95 156.1 157.25 154.1 169.37 DOWN
OFSS 3914.8 3861.63 3808.47 3958.33 4001.87 3905.17 3924.62 DOWN
OIL 211.7 207.85 204 214.75 217.8 210.9 230.06 DOWN
ONGC 161.3 160.03 158.77 162.68 164.07 161.42 180.23 DOWN
ORIENTBANK 76.1 74.18 72.27 77.43 78.77 75.52 102.6 DOWN
PCJEWELLER 84.35 82.48 80.62 86.73 89.12 84.87 310.28 DOWN
PEL 2653.6 2616.33 2579.07 2707.93 2762.27 2670.67 2611.63 UP
PETRONET 231.7 224.63 217.57 237.38 243.07 230.32 237.01 DOWN
PFC 84.25 80.87 77.48 86.07 87.88 82.68 101.77 DOWN
PIDILITIND 1128.2 1115.7 1103.2 1135.9 1143.6 1123.4 951.35 UP
PNB 82 80.42 78.83 84.02 86.03 82.43 126.78 DOWN
POWERGRID 179.9 177.13 174.37 183.73 187.57 180.97 199.62 DOWN
PTC 79.45 77.5 75.55 80.9 82.35 78.95 99.29 DOWN
PVR 1115.3 1103.53 1091.77 1128.88 1142.47 1117.12 1353.39 DOWN
RAMCOCEM 722.3 707.07 691.83 736.27 750.23 721.03 745.51 DOWN
RAYMOND 852.95 837.35 821.75 863.2 873.45 847.6 977.15 DOWN
RBLBANK 570.05 565.7 561.35 573.7 577.35 569.35 515.5 UP
RCOM 14 13.73 13.47 14.28 14.57 14.02 19.35 DOWN
RECLTD 110.7 106.2 101.7 113.7 116.7 109.2 136.06 DOWN
RELCAPITAL 423.2 404.85 386.5 433.8 444.4 415.45 455.37 DOWN
RELIANCE 1129.85 1115.53 1101.22 1140.78 1151.72 1126.47 946.17 UP
RELINFRA 407.9 399.75 391.6 415 422.1 406.85 451.53 DOWN
REPCOHOME 618.5 609.67 600.83 630.67 642.83 621.83 604.84 UP
RPOWER 32.85 32.25 31.65 33.45 34.05 32.85 39.44 DOWN
SAIL 75.4 74.18 72.97 76.33 77.27 75.12 79.74 DOWN
SBIN 286.75 282.23 277.72 294.13 301.52 289.62 279.93 UP
SHREECEM 17087.45 16859.92 16632.38 17457.07 17826.68 17229.53 17178.75 DOWN
SIEMENS 984.2 967.3 950.4 996.55 1008.9 979.65 1136.38 DOWN
SOUTHBANK 18.1 17.78 17.47 18.38 18.67 18.07 27.28 DOWN
SREINFRA 55 53.52 52.03 56.07 57.13 54.58 86.86 DOWN
SRF 1684.15 1634.43 1584.72 1729.43 1774.72 1679.72 1877.88 DOWN
SRTRANSFIN 1414.75 1397.3 1379.85 1438.1 1461.45 1420.65 1381.51 UP
STAR 359.6 352.07 344.53 366.07 372.53 358.53 649.94 DOWN
SUNPHARMA 557.05 553.2 549.35 560.95 564.85 557.1 535.82 UP
SUNTV 773.85 765.57 757.28 779.62 785.38 771.33 896.73 DOWN
SYNDIBANK 43.8 43.03 42.27 44.63 45.47 43.87 63.72 DOWN
TATACHEM 679.45 673.05 666.65 686.7 693.95 680.3 719.64 DOWN
TATACOMM 568.45 562.72 556.98 577.87 587.28 572.13 640.93 DOWN
TATAELXSI 1451.35 1436.57 1421.78 1468.77 1486.18 1453.98 1078.71 UP
TATAGLOBAL 242.25 239.62 236.98 244.42 246.58 241.78 270.15 DOWN
TATAMOTORS 268.15 261.23 254.32 272.38 276.62 265.47 360.46 DOWN
TATAMTRDVR 149.2 144.47 139.73 152.42 155.63 147.68 205.45 DOWN
TATAPOWER 71.85 70.97 70.08 72.62 73.38 71.73 83.94 DOWN
TATASTEEL 550.2 539.82 529.43 557.07 563.93 546.68 630.05 DOWN
TCS 1943.75 1934.48 1925.22 1958.83 1973.92 1949.57 1551.22 UP
TECHM 645.1 629.28 613.47 655.28 665.47 639.47 594.59 UP
TITAN 884.1 859.37 834.63 901.67 919.23 876.93 850.41 UP
TV18BRDCST 47.95 46.68 45.42 49.68 51.42 48.42 55.9 DOWN
TVSMOTOR 525.3 521.78 518.27 530.03 534.77 526.52 659.39 DOWN
UBL 1117 1099.57 1082.13 1129.62 1142.23 1112.18 1091 UP
UJJIVAN 390.05 386.6 383.15 394.5 398.95 391.05 378.52 UP
ULTRACEMCO 4124.65 4086.58 4048.52 4176.33 4228.02 4138.27 4087.22 UP
UNIONBANK 85.05 83.52 81.98 86.92 88.78 85.38 117.05 DOWN
VEDL 219.75 217.2 214.65 221.65 223.55 219.1 292.1 DOWN
VGUARD 213.7 208.17 202.63 218.07 222.43 212.53 223.42 DOWN
VOLTAS 574.2 563.57 552.93 584.67 595.13 574.03 591.41 DOWN
WIPRO 274.5 272.5 270.5 276 277.5 274 287.16 DOWN
WOCKPHARMA 577.9 572.93 567.97 582.98 588.07 578.02 738.62 DOWN
YESBANK 370 363.3 356.6 375.8 381.6 369.1 330.77 UP
ZEEL 518.65 514.45 510.25 524.65 530.65 520.45 563.55 DOWN
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Comfort ‘Forecast and Analysis’
Forecast and Analysis is a daily newsletter that provides technical update on all the major instruments of the world like Gold, Silver, Crude Oil, US Dollar Index and USD/INR. We define their support and resistance levels and attempt to forecast their movement with a short / medium term perspective. Also in the report, a trader will find bias for the mentioned instruments.
This newsletter is also quite popular with a market participant who loves to have insight & theme on MCX Gold, MCX Silver as well MCX Crude-Oil.
Forecast and Analysis
Instrument TRADING STRATEGYLTP S1 S2 R1 R2 Bias
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MCX GOLD
MCX SILVER
MCX CRUDE OIL
MCX COPPER
MCX NATURAL GAS
USD-INR
Forecast and Analysis …Direction at a glance
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In Friday's trade, MCX Gold was seen trading sideways. Bias continues to be neutral. Confirmation of strength above 30101. Interweek Strategy: Establish long positions only above 30101, targeting 30501 and then at 30700-30711 zone. Stop 29411.
Silver prices too were seen trading rangebound. Major buying advised only above 39953. Interweek Strategy: Establish long positions only above 38721, targeting 39251-39451 zone and then at 39953 mark. Stop 37201.
Bias on crude-oil continues to be neutral/positive. Key support seen at 4501. Confirmation of strength above 4951. Interweek strategy: Buy at CMP, targeting 4925-4951 zone and then 5100-5175 zone with stop at 4501.
Copper prices were seen trading rangebound in Friday's trade. Support now seen at 409. Confirmation of strength only above 441. Interweek strategy: Establish long positions on any weakness between 419-422 zone, targeting 441 and then at 449-455 zone with stop at 405.
Natural Gas prices were seen inching up in Friday's trade with positive bias. Key supports now at 185. Interweek strategy: Establish long positions at CMP, targeting 201 and then aggressive targets at 217-223 zone with stop at 183.
USD/INR was seen consolidating in Friday's trade. Key interweek support seen at 68.45. Hurdles now seen at 69.11. Intraday Strategy: Sell between 68.81-68.87 zone, targeting 68.45 zone with stop ABOVE 69.21.
29767 29551 28751 30101 30711 Neutral
38320 37951 37201 39451 40201 Neutral
4710 4501 4295 4951 5175 Positive
426 409 393 441 461 Neutral
192.70 185.00 179.00 201.00 225.00 Neutral
68.66 68.45 67.75 69.11 70.05 Neutral
Natural Gas: Establish long positions at CMP, targeting 201 and then aggressive targets at 217-223 zone with stop at 183.
Instrument TRADING STRATEGYLTP S1 S2 R1 R2
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GOLD $
SILVER ($)
WTI CRUDE OIL ($ )
EUR/USD
Forecast and Analysis …Sailing global trend
Bias
DOW JONES
US Dollar Index
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At Wall Street, Nasdaq tumbles as FAANG stocks take a beating.
Gold prices traded range bound in Friday's trade amidst a rangebound US Dollar. Hurdles now seen at 1245. Confirmation of strength only above 1261. Support seen at 1201-1205 zone.
Silver prices were seen inching up in Friday's trade, tracking rebound in gold prices. Confirmation of strength only above 16.21. At the moment downside risk remains at 15.05.
Crude-Oil prices were seen consolidating in Friday's trade. Major hurdles now seen at 71.50 zone. Interweek strategy: Buy between 68.50-69 zone, targeting 70.05 zone and then at 71.50 zone with stop at 67.05.
The EUR/USD was seen trading sideways in Friday's trade. Technically, the bias continues to be neutral with key support to watch on EUR/USD at 1.1505. Hurdles seen at 1.1901.
The U.S. dollar was seen trading rangebound in Friday's trade. Technically, bias now shifts to neutral. Hurdles at 97.50. Downside well supported at 92.50. Major weakness now only below 92.50.
Wall Street ends lower on Friday following disappointing results from Twitter Inc, Exxon and Intel. Also, the gross domestic product data showed that economic growth remains relatively strong but came in a shade below lofty expectations. Bias shifts to negative.
1233 1221 1201 1245 1261 Neutral
15.51 15.05 14.21 16.21 17.09 Neutral
69.04 67.45 65 70.05 71.5 Positive
1.1656 1.1505 1.4445 1.1901 1.2205 Neutral
94.67 92.50 89.25 97.50 99.00 Neutral
25451 23405 22501 26125 27001 Negative
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DAILY PIVOT TABLE
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CommodityExchange Close S1 S2 R1 R2200 Day
SMA Reversal
Point Trend
MCX ALUMINUM
MCX CARDAMOM
NCDEX CASTOR
NCDEX CHANA
MCX COPPER
MCX COTTON
MCX CRUDE-OIL
MCX GOLD
NCDEX GAUR GUM
NCDEX GAUR SEED
NCDEX JEERA
MCX LEAD
MCX MENTHA OIL
MCX NATURAL GAS
MCX NICKLE
NCDEX RM SEED
MCX SILVER
NCDEX SUGAR
NCDEX SOYA BEAN
MCX ZINC
141.15 140.45 139.75 141.8 142.45 141.1 142.78 DOWN
1147.9 1136.53 1125.17 1162.73 1177.57 1151.37 1027.8 DOWN
4516 4484.67 4453.33 4535.67 4555.33 4504.33 4231.43 UP
4112 4065 4018 4185 4258 4138 4015.9 UP
428.9 426.5 424.1 432.15 435.4 429.75 450.28 UP
22380 22273.33 22166.67 22443.33 22506.67 22336.67 20446.85 DOWN
4800 4756.67 4713.33 4827.67 4855.33 4784.33 4182.83 UP
29788 29738 29688 29871 29954 29821 30172.86 UP
8891 8830.33 8769.67 8971.33 9051.67 8910.67 8622.13 DOWN
4165.5 4146.33 4127.17 4189.33 4213.17 4170.17 3979.42 UP
19600 19518.33 19436.67 19688.33 19776.67 19606.67 17697.27 UP
147.95 146.95 145.95 148.65 149.35 147.65 160.31 UP
1559.8 1547.2 1534.6 1573.7 1587.6 1561.1 1441.46 DOWN
191 190.07 189.13 192.07 193.13 191.13 188.02 UP
942 933.8 925.6 946.8 951.6 938.6 877.36 UP
4161 4144.33 4127.67 4174.33 4187.67 4157.67 3987.42 UP
38275 38154 38033 38498 38721 38377 39067.32 UP
2709 2709 2709 2709 2709 2709 3619.22 DOWN
3370 3357.33 3344.67 3381.33 3392.67 3368.67 3408.73 DOWN
179.85 178.55 177.25 181.05 182.25 179.75 209.34 DOWN
Monday30th July, 2018
Comfort Securities Ltd.
DISCLAIMER: This is solely for information of clients of Comfort Securities Ltd. and does not construe to be an investment advice. It is also not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase and sale of any financial instruments. Any action taken by you on the basis of the information contained herein is your responsibility alone and Comfort Securities Ltd. its subsidiaries or its employees or associates will not be liable in any manner for the consequences of such action taken by you. We have exercised due diligence in checking the correctness and authenticity of the information contained in this recommendation, but Comfort Securities Ltd. or any of its subsidiaries or associates or employees shall not be in any way responsible for any loss or damage that may arise to any person from any inadvertent error in the information contained in this recommendation or any action taken on basis of this information.
Technical analysis studies market psychology, price patterns and volume levels. It is used to forecast future price and market movements. Technical analysis is complementary to fundamental analysis and news sources. The recommendations issued herewith might be contrary to recommendations issued by Comfort Securities Ltd. in the company research undertaken as the recommendations stated in this report is derived purely from technical analysis. Comfort Securities Ltd. has based this document on information obtained from sources it believes to be reliable but which it has not independently verified; Comfort Securities Ltd. makes no guarantee, representation or warranty and accepts no responsibility or liability as to its accuracy or completeness. The opinions contained within the report are based upon publicly available information at the time of publication and are subject to change without notice. The information and any disclosures provided herein are in summary form and have been prepared for informational purposes. The recommendations and suggested price levels are intended purely for trading purposes. The recommendations are valid for the day of the report however trading trends and volumes might vary substantially on an intraday basis and the recommendations may be subject to change. The information and any disclosures provided herein may be considered confidential. Any use, distribution, modification, copying, forwarding or disclosure by any person is strictly prohibited. The information and any disclosures provided herein do not constitute a solicitation or offer to purchase or sell any security or other financial product or instrument. The current performance may be unaudited. Past performance does not guarantee future returns. There can be no assurance that investments will achieve any targeted rates of return, and there is no guarantee against the loss of your entire investment.
POTENTIAL CONFLICT OF INTEREST DISCLOSURE (as on date of report)Disclosure of interest statement – • Analyst interest of the stock /Instrument(s): - No. • Firm interest of the stock / Instrument (s): - No.
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