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Colombia in 2050

By

Clara Sirvent

Prashant Shekhar

Jaime Prades

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Content Introduction ............................................................................................................................................................................................... 3

Politics ....................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 3

Political Environment........................................................................................................................................................ 4

Economy ........................................................................................................................................................................................................ 5

Population ..................................................................................................................................................................................................... 7

Gender equality .............................................................................................................................................................. 7

Religion ..................................................................................................................................................................................................... 8

Education ............................................................................................................................................................................................ 8

GINI Index ....................................................................................................................................................................................... 9

Relations with neighboring countries ............................................................................ 10

Regional and global influence ............................................................................................................. 12

Conclusion ............................................................................................................................................................................................... 13

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Introduction

In this report we want to show how the past and present of Colombia will affect the

society, politics and international relations of their future, specifically in the year 2050. In

the next pages you will see our projection of Colombia in the incoming years from a more

technical point of view, based in actual data, in the history, and the socio-economic

situation of the country.

Politics

“Democracy is like three oxen pulling a plough. The oxen are the independent powers, but you have to

walk in the same direction; otherwise, you cannot plough and that is what was happening in Colombia.

One ox was walking in one direction, the other in another direction, so the democracy was not

working”

- Juan Manuel Santos -

Colombia in recent years has come long way in peace keeping process from the war,

corruption, drug cartels and proxy governments. Colombia in recent years came out as

an exceptional state in Latin America with growth of approximately 6%.

To study and predict about Colombian system of government of future, we need to

understand the past and what makes it different from other Latin American. Colombia

had long history of usually free and regular elections, respect for political rights for

citizens of country. Unlike any other Latin American country role of church played an

important role in defining the state of society, but in this case its interesting because

church was more powerful than military at some instances.

Colombian government is presidential democratic form of government established in

1991 constitution. It is based on the principle of division of power between the different

branches of government i.e. executive, judiciary and legislative branch.

Executive branch is nationally represented by congress which is a bi Cameral House of

Representatives of elected members, directly or indirectly.

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Colombian government in recent years with liberalization and globalization set a bench

mark for stability in government by different reforms such as regular elections , providing

right to information recent attempts to make policy of state more transparent has been

recognized all over the Latin America.

Political Environment

Political stability always been a big problem in Latin America Colombia is no different in

that regard but signs of progress can be seen in recent years. Colombian scores very less

in these scale of political freedom, legal freedom, freedom of press but does fairly

according to the neighbors why it’s important to study the past to show the future

average of these scores tells about the state.

Political freedom should be linked with freedom of political rights and terrorism.

Terrorism within the country is part of Colombian history be it with FARC The

Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia—People's Army (Spanish: Fuerzas Armadas

Revolucionarias de Colombia—Ejército del Pueblo, FARC–EP and FARC) is a guerrilla

movement involved in the continuing Colombian armed conflict since 1964 ,after the civil

war for government stability alternate government takeover led to marginalization of

poor and un heard population led to development of FARC movement which is Marxist

Leninist socialist in nature . Colombian government has faced heavy corruptions of white

collars, red collar workers, which led to Improvement the status of FARC stature among

Colombian population. Peace treaties will be developed and FARC will finish as a force

but the drug cartel will be difficult to remove.

Colombian in early 1970’s was synonymous with violence death killings , refugee ,state of

war , cocaine , tortures, kidnapping and never ending war.it was the case that war was

inherited with no end in sight.

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30

40

50

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70

2002 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15

Political Enviroment In Colombia

Political Freedom (0 best -40 worst ) Legal Freedom (0 Best -30 worst ) Press Freedom(0 Best - 100 worst )

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Even though the government was stabilizing but corruption and deep forest led to rise of

leaders like Pablo Escobar, the drug lord world has not seen in centuries. He established

the cocaine industry in Colombia with the help of geographical positioning of panama

canal ,foreign support, falling economy, high level of corruptions , boom of hippie culture

were some reasons for development of Drug cartel even government find difficult to

eliminate. Drug cartels will play important role in coming years but not as much as it has

done in 1970’s since rise of formal industries and increase in purchasing parity will

actually change the scenario of whole system, but with legalization of drugs in 2016 of

marijuana with Uruguay in Latin America it will start the trend and might change the

cartels to industrialized sector in near future.

1Freedom of press was also oppressed and controlled by different people of high status,

they were also part of basic method of bribing, if somebody tried to go against the system

either he was killed or made sure that he is not able to report against something. It was

propaganda based tabloid journalism that was happening but in recent years the status

has improved from being not free state to partly free state even then it’s common to

have kidnappings of journalist, but by 2050 the freedom of press will be limited to partly

free since state like Colombia it is necessary to curb some freedoms to make the system

work but it should not propagate one ideology, but repression of journalist will change.

Economy

Colombia economy even after the instability and civil war country was able to survive and

fight to become one of the important players in Latin America was because of the fertile

land, mineral rich and close proximity to Panama Canal.

Colombia will rose up as a biggest player in later Latin and will one of the fastest growing

economy in world, since Colombian economy based on rich natural resources like fertility

of land for growing , forest products, pulp and paper, coffee, meat, cereals and vegetable

oils, cotton, oilseed, sugars and sugar confectionery, fruit and other agricultural products,

food processing, processed fish products, beverages, machinery, electronics, military

products, aircraft, ships, motor vehicles, metal products, Ferro-alloys, home and office

material, chemicals and health related products, petrochemicals, agrochemicals,

inorganic salts and acids, perfumery and cosmetics, medicaments, plastics, animal fibers,

textile and fabrics, clothing and footwear, leather, construction equipment and materials,

cement. Oil production and development of better ways of renewable energy extraction

facilities the sustainability of country with 70% will rise up to 90% but this scenario can

vary because of climate change and population growth. Too many people to feed will lead

to over exhaustion of natural resources might will affect the growth rate from booming

6 to 6.5 to plus minus 5.8to 6.0.

1 https://freedomhouse.org/country/colombia

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The location of benefit will leave it exposed to natural calamities, if steps not taken by

2030 the loss can be high as 1.9% of GDP, already rising water level will lead to increase

in loss of land which will affect the economy since Colombia has high number of internal

displaced people within country because of arm conflict2. Mining also one major sector

of Colombian economy will have high chance of over mining for immediate benefits like

emeralds , coal , oil production because of regular fluctuating rates which will add up to

the natural progression of resources also climate change. Industries will be at new high

since developing economy developed economies will invest in the countries for cheap

labour and high value products.it will become Silicon Valley of Latin America

Existing states like USA will continue to be biggest trading partner for existing benefits

like low tariff rates, but dependency on particular state will actually lead to getting

suppressed by the state.

"Colombia is in a risky position. They've got a peace process that's going nowhere, and a drug production problem that's

skyrocketing."

- Barry McCaffrey -

2 Climate Resilience in Development Planning Experiences in Colombia and Ethiopia: Experiences in Colombia and Ethiopia ,2014

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Population

Let’s begging talking about the number of Colombians living in their country. According

to the 2013 census, the total population of Colombia was 48,114,492. In 2015 the

estimated number of population raised to 49.5 million souls, which positions Colombia

as the country number 28th in the ranking of world population. Colombia, despite being

the 28th most populated country in the world3, is sparsely populated with just 41 people

per square kilometer (106/square mile), which ranks 173rd in the world. Colombia is also

the third-most populated country in Latin America and it’s also the third-largest number

of Spanish-speaking people in the world after Mexico and the United States.

In the year 2015 the French Institute for Demographic Studies (INED) published that the

population of Colombia in the year 2050 will be around 63 million people4, other studies

say that the population will be around 55 million people. The main problem of this will be

with the older generations. The pyramid of population will be like the ones we have in

the western countries nowadays, inverted pyramids, a lot of old people being sustained

by a few young. In 2050 the population older than 70 years old will be the 13´8% of the

population5, today is the 4´3%.This is going to be translated in problems for the pension

and healthcare systems.

Gender equality Another important topic is the gender equality in the Colombian population, in 2015

Colombia was one of the countries with more measures for improving gender equality in

the world. For example Colombia is second country in the world with the highest

percentage of women in managerial positions with a 53% of women in this positions.

Another example of the Colombian progressive gender equality mentality is the law 1475

that established a 30 percent quota of women candidates in all elections6. The same

percentage of women must occupy the highest level of the government’s public service.

(By comparison, the Latin American average for female representation in legislatures was

22% in 2010).

One of the major’s problems nowadays in Colombia is the domestic violence, a national

survey in 20107 revealed that the 37% of married women “have been physically abused

3 Colombia Population 2016 http://worldpopulationreview.com/countries/colombia-population/ 4 Colombia tendría 63 millones de habitantes en 2050 http://www.elcolombiano.com/historico/colombia_tendria_63_millones_de_habitantes_en_2050_segun_estudio_frances-CYEC_263144 5 En Colombia crece la “bomba demográfica”. Entre 2015 y 2050, la población mayor de 70 años pasará de 4,3% de la población total, a 13,8% http://asuntosmayores.org/sitio/especiales/cifras/1195-en-colombia-crece-la-%E2%80%9Cbomba-demogr%C3%A1fica%E2%80%9D-entre-2015-y-2050,-la-poblaci%C3%B3n-mayor-de-70-a%C3%B1os-pasar%C3%A1-de-4,3-de-la-poblaci%C3%B3n-total,-a-13,8.html 6 Gender Policy is Failing Women in Colombia http://www.nsi-ins.ca/newsroom/gender-policy-is-failing-women-in-colombia/ 7Una de cada tres mujeres sufre violencia machista http://www.uelbosque.edu.co/medios/noticias/una-cada-tres-mujeres-sufre-violencia-machista

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by their husbands. Ten percent of those women report having been raped. Six percent of

the women surveyed have been raped by someone other than their husband8”.

In the year 2050 the number of cases of domestic violence will be much lower because

of the government’s efforts in education and gender equality promotion. Also the

equality could be real, as we showed before in this essay Colombia is the second country

with more equality in management in business in 2015, and is just the beginning. The

Colombian government will promote the same system of parity in different works and

professional scenarios to reach almost the total equality in the year 2050.

Religion The number of religious people in Colombia is very difficult to know after the National

Administrative Department

of Statistics for the country

stopped collecting religious

statistics, which make

obtaining accurate reports

difficult9. Despite that, a big

number of studies and

surveys including one

conducted by the nation’s

leading newspaper, El

Tiempo10, have found that

the majority of the

Colombian population

(nearly the 90%) adheres to

Christianity.

But is important to mention

that nearly 36 percent of

Colombians admit that they

do not practice their faith

actively.

In 2050, as is common in the developed countries, the number of religious people will

fall. The higher level of education and the rise of the standard of living will cause a descent

of the number of believers to numbers we can find today in western countries11.

Education Colombia (year 2015) have a big problem with the education system, has the lowest

schooling rate from 3 to 5 years old children of all Latin America, with 44% rate. In the

8 Colombia's Gender Problem http://www.worldpolicy.org/blog/2013/11/25/colombias-gender-problem 9 Religious beliefs in Colombia http://www.studycountry.com/guide/CO-religion.htm 10 Encuesta midió las creencias religiosas de los habitantes de Bogotá Encuesta midió las creencias religiosas de los habitantes de Bogotá http://www.eltiempo.com/archivo/documento/CMS-4682928 11 Americans are in the middle of the pack globally when it comes to importance of religion http://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2015/12/23/americans-are-in-the-middle-of-the-pack-globally-when-it-comes-to-importance-of-religion/

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Programa de Evaluación Internacional de Estudiantes (Pisa), or International Program for

the evaluation of students, Colombia was the country with the worst results of whole

Latin America, and the country with the worst development (in education) since the

beginning of the study in the year 2000. While government investment in higher

education accounts for 0.4% of Colombia’s GDP, the average in the rest of Latin America

is three times higher, about 1.2% of GDP.

This attitude toward education is hurting Colombia’s economy12, not only because

students protests and violence (a lot of riots happened in the last years), a lower level of

education is translated into more young Colombians joining the drug groups as the best

solution to get some money and have a better future.

One of the country’s most obvious deficiencies and future biggest problems as I will show

later, is the country’s lack of high-skilled, educated workers: Colombia has only 7.1

Masters or PhD degree holders per million inhabitants, lower than many of its neighbors.

Also is important to say that the majority of this high skilled workers migrate to another

countries searching for better salaries and life.

In the year 2050 the actual lack of high skilled workers will be translated in a

problematic/lack health system (lack of medics), hi-tech industries, and international

innovative business. The Colombian society of their future will pay the price of the actual

government investment in education. Despite the future increase of the education

investment (four times more in 2025 and five times more in 2035) there will be a “lost

generation” of lowered skilled workers without the knowledge to “fight” against their

European or North American counterparts in the industries, or technologic markets.

GINI Index Gini index as is explained in the World Bank “measures

the extent to which the distribution of income (or, in

some cases, consumption expenditure) among

individuals or households within an economy deviates

from a perfectly equal distribution. A Lorenz curve

plots the cumulative percentages of total income

received against the cumulative number of recipients,

starting with the poorest individual or household. The

Gini index measures the area between the Lorenz

curve and a hypothetical line of absolute equality,

expressed as a percentage of the maximum area under

the line. Thus a Gini index of 0 represents perfect

equality, while an index of 100 implies perfect

inequality”.

12 Education in Colombia: underfunded, underperforming and undermining the country’s progress http://colombiareports.com/education-in-colombia-underfunded-underperforming-and-undermining-the-countrys-progress/

Source: Quandl

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In 2014 the Gini Index for Colombia was 5313, being one of the most unequal countries in

the world (the number 14 of the list). But we must say that every year the Gini index for

Colombia is decreasing, the situation is getting better and better. In 2050 is expected to

have a Gini Index around 35 like the majority of the European countries in 2015, is a great

number and the cause will be the increase of the middle class and the much better

standard of live, also the higher level of education and social plans by the Colombian

government will produce a more equal (and richer) society.

Relations with neighboring countries

It is thought that South America is one of the regions that will develop the most in the

next 35 years. However, not all of the countries will perform as well in important matters

as investment in infrastructures14, but that is not the case of Colombia. Predictions for

the country, as stated above, are highly positive in economic terms, establishing

Colombia as one of the most important, if not the most important, states of the region

by 2050.

The relations between Colombia and its neighbors have never been lineal. Despite

sharing a common history since the birth of some of them, as happens with Venezuela or

Ecuador, and generally positive relations, some tensions have arisen since the

independence of those countries of the area against Colombia. However, most of these

disagreements were created by the distrust and the lack of security during guerrilla times,

as for example in the Andean diplomatic crisis of 200815, and, therefore, by 2050 relations

with neighboring countries have improved in general.

Ecuador is one of the greatest examples of that statement. The country shared the desire

of Colombia of reaching the peace with the FARC, especially taking into account the

impact that the war on Colombia had on Ecuadorian citizens too. In some border areas

of Ecuador, such as Putumayo and San Lorenzo, the homicide rate used to be 75 and 96

per 100.000, respectively, way higher than on the rest of the country. Ecuadorian

government related those high numbers with the presence of Colombian paramilitary

individuals and criminals who used to cross the border for hiding.16 In 2050, with the

achievement of the peace, Ecuador fixed a security problem coming from Colombia, and

previously had a very strong public opinion supporting Colombia’s negotiation with the

FARC17 and its war against drug trafficking.

13 World Bank http://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SI.POV.GINI 14 The World in 2050: Will the shift in global economic power continue? https://usosapps.uw.edu.pl/apps/f/87tSZTCP/The%20world%20in%202050.pdf 15 Latin American Crisis Resolved http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/story/2008/03/07/ST2008030703581.html 16 Ecuador’s security and Colombia’s 50-years-old conflict http://www.spcorrespondents.com/blog/ecuadors-security-and-colombias-50-year-old-conflict 17 Colombia’s relations with Ecuador better than ever: Santos http://colombiareports.com/colombias-relations-ecuador-better-ever-santos/

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Another state who played an important role in the achievement of peace and war against

the FARC is Venezuela. Colombian relations with the country have always been constantly

shifting from cooperation to bilateral fighting. Although from 2016 to 2050 there have

been several moments of cold diplomatic relations between countries, mainly related

with extradition conflicts of Colombian revolutionary fighters and the thought by

Colombia that Venezuela aided the enemy combatants at some point18, in 2050 both

states maintain diplomatic missions in each other’s territories. The fact that Colombia

rejected United States’ military aid for solving its internal conflict helped Venezuela to

grow a positive reaction towards Colombia, which made them put more efforts in helping

Colombia to achieve the peace in 2025. It is undeniable that both countries have

benefited from their good relations, increasing trade between them19.

Peru followed the step of Colombia on legalizing some drugs. Both neighbors had been

similarly victims of drug trafficking and drug production20, fact that justifies the

parallelism that followed drug status in both countries. In addition, Peru maintains itself

as one of the biggest allies of Colombia.

Panama got also very benefited of Colombia’s economic growth, although by 2050 it

flourished by itself, not only by the reaction wave of Colombia’s growth, as it is thought

that Caribbean states will have their time to boost their economies in the next 35 years.21

The last of the big neighbors of Colombia, who is considered the most influential state of

the region by 2016, is Brazil. It will remain big and one of the major potencies of the

world, the state that challenges the most the idea that Colombia would be the most

important country of the region by 205022. The most relevant issue that both states will

face and fix by 2050 is the creation of a good network of transport between them. There

used to be no road that connects Colombia with Brazil, making it more expensive for a

Colombian exporter to ship their products to Brazil that for a Canadian one23. Therefore,

transport links will develop in the following 35 years which helped both states to boost

their economies. As both countries benefit, we predict that other projects will be created

in partnership between both governments, as bilateral agreements for developing new

technology and an integrated information center for Amazon that would help to protect

the region from transnational crimes and thus strengthen security in their border areas24.

18 FARC in Venezuela http://www.insightcrime.org/venezuela-organized-crime-news/farc-venezuela 19 Making sense of Colombia-Venezuela relations https://nacla.org/article/making-sense-colombia-venezuela-relations 20 Colombia’s new neighbor: Peru http://colombiareports.com/colombias-new-neighbor-peru/ 21 Centroamérica 2050: el año del milagro http://www.forbes.com.mx/centroamerica-2050-el-ano-del-milagro/ 22 The World in 2050: Will the shift in global economic power continue? https://usosapps.uw.edu.pl/apps/f/87tSZTCP/The%20world%20in%202050.pdf 23 Less far apart http://www.economist.com/node/21525913 24 Colombia, Brazil strengthen security, trade relations http://colombiareports.com/colombia-brazil-strengthen-security-trade-relations/

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Regional and global influence

By 2050, Colombia may be the most important country of its region25, making undeniable

a great grade of global influence. Although not all the publications agree on the

predictions about in which number of the list of major powers will Colombia be, all of

them allocate it in very good positions, like no. 2926 or even no. 2627.

Based in our assumption of how the guerrilla conflict will develop with the peace arriving

in 2025 approximately, 2050’s Colombia is a worldwide example on how to deal with the

fight against drug trafficking.

The security that the peace will bring to the region explains that Colombia could become

a country that receives a certain number of immigrants from neighboring countries. The

reason of this migration flow is based on two assumptions. First, the idea that in 2050

Colombia will be one of the best places to do business28 and therefore a good number of

foreign investors and workers will start new projects in the country. The second, that the

Colombians of 2050 will have a similar income than nowadays’ Germans, about U.S.

$43.600 annually, when currently it’s hardly $12.000 due to the price of the dollar.29

Analyzing European migration flows and tendencies, it is easy to observe that Germany

receives a big number of immigrants and to reach the conclusion that if Colombia

becomes “the Germany” of Latin America the number of immigration that it receives may

reach bigger levels by 2050.

Shifting the view to a more international level, it is important to predict how will be the

relations with other powers. USA has always been a constant in Colombian history,

especially taking into account that the direction of foreign policy in Colombia has always

been more directed towards the North, to the Caribbean and USA, but the general feeling

of South America about USA has lately been related with not wanting them to intervene

in its policies. We consider 2050 Colombia will have reached their peace and economic

growth avoiding Western influence in an effort of gaining legitimacy by themselves. If we

name the Dependency theory, the economic growth then is explained, as the satellite,

Colombia, develops more when weakening its ties with USA, its metropole.

This does not mean that Colombia will break its networks with the West, as that does not

make any sense in a global world, but find its place in the global society independently

and strengthening its ties with the countries it shares region with. By 2050 the relations

25 The World in 2050: Will the shift in global economic power continue? https://usosapps.uw.edu.pl/apps/f/87tSZTCP/The%20world%20in%202050.pdf 26 Ibídem. 27 Colombia sería una de las 30 mayores economías en 2050 http://www.portafolio.co/economia/finanzas/colombia-seria-30-mayores-economias-2050-131436 28 The World in 2050: Will the shift in global economic power continue? https://usosapps.uw.edu.pl/apps/f/87tSZTCP/The%20world%20in%202050.pdf 29 Colombia sería el de mayor progreso de la región al 2050 http://www.portafolio.co/economia/finanzas/colombia-seria-mayor-progreso-region-2050-35252

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with USA and Europe should be good, with bilateral treaties like the EU-Colombia/Peru

trade agreement30.

Probably one of the issues in which Colombia will get more influential may be its work in

International Organizations, particularly those ones related with regional cooperation.

UNASUR, SELA, ALADI… and in addition in 2050 we expect it to have conclude its

accession processes to be part of such important organizations as APEC (Asia Pacific

Economic Cooperation31) and OECD, for which Colombia has applied since 201332. That

will create a voice for Colombia in international issues, but also numerous benefits from

trade-based international organizations. As Colombia is going to become one of the most

transcendental states in the global economy, it is compulsory for it to be part of the main

forums to which it can apply.

Finally, Colombia in 2050 could fight for a bigger integration in the CELAC using SELA and

ALADI as tools. Colombia, therefore, will become one of the strongest voices of the

organization and it will use the regional institutions as a way to tighten its links with their

member states and to show the similarities between the region’s countries in topics of

common interest33 during the 35 years before 2050, which will help Colombia to reach

its leading position by that time.

Conclusion

As we have shown in this paper the future of Colombia is very promising. In our opinion,

this projection we have done is perfectly viable in the long term.

Colombia will face many challenges in the upcoming years to evolve into the future power

that could potentially become. They will have to invest a lot of money in the education

and health system to create a more prepared, healthy and educated society that could

face the great global economic competence of this new globalized world. They will face

major political crisis, but they will maintain their political stability, and reaching a peace

agreement with the FARC in order to look to the future for once and for all without having

to drag the ballast of violence and corruption will be the beginning of the new Colombia.

Another fights will be taken to make Colombia a better country, the most important ones

will be against the drug cartels and of course, against the corruption (specially the political

corruption) but other ones, like the fight against the climate change with the promotion

of green energies and new efficient industries will take the leap in the incoming years.

30 EU-Colombia/Peru trade agreement signed https://www.webportglobal.com/Images/64/64165d5e-97aa-4359-8722-3e231c931d1a.pdf 31 ¿Qué significaría el ingreso de Colombia a la Apec? http://www.elpais.com.co/elpais/economia/noticias/significaria-ingreso-colombia-apec 32 Colombia inicia proceso de ingreso a la OCDE http://www.ictsd.org/bridges-news/puentes/news/colombia-inicia-proceso-de-ingreso-a-la-ocde 33 Mercosur http://www.cancilleria.gov.co/international/consensus/mercosur