college false favorite gom, marshall +6 over ohio, … · † analysis on every lined game ... and...

Volume 27, Issue 5 September 19-24, 2012

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College False Favorite GOM, Marshall +6 over Ohio, WINNER!

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• Analysis on Every Lined Game

• Best Bets and Key Plays

• Full Schedule with Opening Lines

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ATS W-L Record Since 1980:

12-1(93%)

NOMO MO

PLAY AGAINST any NFL road favorite of 6 or more points off back-to-back

SU and ATS wins – the latter as a home favorite, the former as a road

dog – if they are facing an opponent that won 5 or less games last season.

AWESOME ANGLE OF THE WEEK

T R I V I A T E A S E R

This coach shines in conference games when his team is looking to exact revenge, going 21-11 ATS in his career, including 15-5 SU and ATS when his troops are playing off a win. Best of all, when both his team and the foe are

each off a win, he is 8-2 SU and 10-0 ATS. Who is this week’s shining beacon?

For the Trivia Teaser answer, turn to page 7.

THIS WEEK'S AMAZING SITUATIONAL PLAY

Be sure to check out the COACHES LEAGUE for ATS records on every College & NFL coach in 16 key situational roles. Simply log on to www.PLAYBOOK.com and click on the COACHES LEAGUE.

T R I V I A T E A S E R

PLAY ON any 1-2 college home team in Game Four of the season that was a

bowl team last year if they are off a win.

“Help me if you can, I’m feeling down

And I do appreciate you being round.

Help me get my feet back on the ground,

Won’t you please, please help me.”

I t was ranked No. 29 on Rolling Stone’s all-time 500 Greatest Hits list. It was the second feature fi lm

by the Beatles, a comedy adventure that saw the group square off against an evil cult.

‘Help’ was inspired by the Marx Brothers classic ‘Duck Soup’ and was also directly satirical of the James Bond series of fi lms. John Lennon wrote the lyrics of the song to express his stress after the Beatles’ quick rise to success in the ‘60s.

“When ‘Help’ came out, I was actually crying out for help. Most people think it’s just a fast rock ‘n’ roll song. I didn’t realize it at the time; I just wrote the song because I was commissioned to write it for the movie. But later, I knew I really was crying out. So it was my fat Elvis period. I was fat and depressed and I was crying out for help.”

Fat and depressed also best describes college football teams who were

bowlers last season but start out 0-2 the next year.

It’s the teams who manage to avoid a disastrous 0-3 hat trick that we prefer to focus on in this study as they perform with aplomb in Game Fours when coming off a win. Thus, with that thought in mind, we’re looking to –

Play AGAINST: SAN FRANCISCO

HELP!A Weekly Insight Into The Art Of Sports Handicapping

Marc Lawrence's

BETCHADIDN'TKNOW

Like a 911 paramedic team, these clubs respond with urgency in such critical games, going 27-8 SU and 23-8-1 ATS since 1990.

Rather than falling into an almost inescapable 1-3 hole, bowl teams realize their best chance to go bowling again is to right the ship – immediately. Instead of having to rely on help from other non-contentious clubs, they know their fate is best determined by their own results. Thus, a focused effort is realized in these particular contests.

This week fi nds Auburn & Penn State singing the phrases of this classic tune.These self-helping bowlers are at their very best in a winning situation where they have gone 13-0 SU and ATS. FYI:

One of the two teams mentioned fi ts this week’s unbeaten subset. Best of all, you can read about this perfect tightener at the all-new PLAYBOOK.COM website inside the BETTING TOOLS section by clicking on the BLACK BOOK SYSTEMS link. There you have it… another time-tested winning tune from the past. In closing, remember to keep your mind open to new ways and these words of wisdom from the Fabulous Foursome:

“When I was younger, so much younger than today,

I never needed anybody’s help in any way.

But now these days are gone, I’m not so self assured,

now I fi nd I’ve changed my mind and opened up the doors.”

FREE WEEKEND PREFERRED PICKS LATE PHONE FOOTBALL SERVICE! It’s here! As you know, all PLAYBOOK Football Newlsetter subscribers are entitled to a FREE WEEK of Marc’s award-winnng PREFERRED PICKS Late Phone Football Service as a no-charge bonus, and the FREE WEEK is here. To take advantage simply call the PLAYBOOK Weekend Update Phone this Saturday anytime after 10 AM ET and you’re in!

Thursday, September 20Ny Giants SERIES: 3-1 L4… 4-0 1st BB RG’s vs .500 < oppCAROLINA 0-5 dogs after scoring 35 > pts… 0-2 SUATS Thursday

Sunday, September 23St. Louis 7-0 off SU dog win vs opp off SUATS lossCHICAGO 3-11 vs non div opp w/ revenge (1-0 this year)

Tampa Bay 5-1 RD’s w/ revenge after allowing 35 > ptsDALLAS 7-0 vs NFC South… 0-9 H vs .500 > opp Games One-Four

San Francisco HARBAUGH: 5-0 fav off BB SUATS wins MINNESOTA SERIES: 7-1 L8 home… FRAZIER: 3-0 off SU fav loss

Detroit SCHWARTZ: 1-8 vs opp off BB SU lossesTENNESSEE 8-1 home vs non div opp w/ revenge Games One-Four

Cincinnati 6-1 away after scoring 28 > points Games One-FourWASHINGTON 0-7 HF’s vs non conf opp… 1-4 O/U Game Three

Ny Jets SERIES: 7-2 L9 A… 5-0 away vs div opp off SU dog winMIAMI 1-9 off SU win vs opp off DD SU loss Games One-Four

Kansas City 4-0 away vs < .500 non conf opp… 10-2 2nd BB RG’sNEW ORLEANS 8-1 off SUATS loss vs opp off SU loss

Buffalo GAILEY: 0-11 .500 > away vs non div oppCLEVELAND SERIES: 3-1 L4… 4-0 vs non div opp off SU win 14 > pts

Jacksonville 6-1 vs opp off SU dog win Games One-FourINDIANAPOLIS 0-10 vs .400 < opp… 1-4 favs 2nd BB HG’s

Philadelphia 7-0 away w/ revenge vs conf opp… 10-1 SU Game ThreeARIZONA 0-4 Game Three… 1-8 home off BB SUATS wins

Atlanta SERIES: 3-0 L3 away… SMITH: 0-7 dog off BB SU winsSAN DIEGO 4-0 off win vs NFC South… 10-2 home off BB SU wins

Houston 1-9 SU Game Three… 0-4 vs AFC WestDENVER FOX: 1-6 fav vs opp off BB SUATS wins

Pittsburgh 0-8 off DD ATS win… 0-4 after allowing 10 < ptsOAKLAND SERIES: 3-1 L4… 6-0 HD’s off SUATS loss New England 11-1 vs non div opp w/ revenge Games One-FourBALTIMORE 0-4 home off SU loss vs opp off SU fav loss

Monday, September 24Green Bay SERIES: 3-0 L3 / 3-1 L4 A… 8-1-1 vs NFC West SEATTLE 0-9 off DD ATS win vs .500 > non div opp

Saturday, September 22E Michigan 5-1 in 2nd of BB RG’s… 4-2 bef Kent St… 0-4-1 Game FourMICHIGAN ST 6-2 after Notre Dame… 0-5 in 2nd of 3 straight HG’s

Uab 0-3 vs undefeated opp (Gm 3 >)… 1-3 as dogs > 24 ptsOHIO ST 4-1 as favs 31 > pts… 1-4 favs 8 > pts in 4th straight HG

Vanderbilt 1-4 away w/ conf revenge… 1-4 in 1st of BB RG’sGEORGIA 2-8 as conf favs 12 > pts… 4-14 vs conf revenge

Arizona SERIES: 5-2 L7… 5-1 away w/ conf revenge… 1-5 in 1st RGOREGON 3-0 in 4th straight HG… 9-3 Game Four… 7-3 bef Wash St

Virginia 7-3 as DD dogs… 2-7 Game Four… 2-10 in 2nd of BB RG’sTCU 4-1 bef SMU… 5-2 Game Three… 1-6 as DD non conf favs

Lsu SERIES: 3-1 L4… 10-3 away off BBB HG’s… 1-4 Game FourAUBURN 5-1 as HD’s 6 > pts… 8-2 in 2nd of 3 straight HG’s

Kentucky 4-1 bef S Carolina… 0-3 Game Four… 1-4 away off BB HG’sFLORIDA SERIES: 5-0 L5…1-4 home vs conf revenge… 3-7 after Tenn

Michigan SERIES: 5-1 L6… 8-1 as non con dogs < 13 ptsNOTRE DAME 0-3 aft Mich St… 1-4 Game Four… 3-10 as HF’s 6 > pts

Kansas St SERIES: 8-1 L9 A… 4-1 in 1st conf gm… 2-5 Game FourOKLAHOMA SERIES: 3-1 L4… 4-0 home w/ rest… 8-2 in 2nd of BB HG’s

1.800.PLAYBOOK • www.PLAYBOOK.com • page 3

College Football Games

2-MINUTE HANDICAP ATS = Against The Spread • A = Away • Con = Conference • D = Dog

F = Favorite • H = Home • Rev = Revenge • R = Road • SU = Straight-Up

FOR A COMPLETE 2-MINUTE HANDICAP OF EVERY GAME ON TODAY'S CARD, VISIT www.PLAYBOOK.com

TEAMS KEY FACTS, STATS & ATS TRENDS

(All results are preseason ATS – Against The Spread – and most recent, unless noted otherwise. Content contained in this report remains exclusive private property of PLAYBOOK™ and the PLAYBOOK™ Database and may not be reused or disseminated in any form without express written consent of the publisher.

The underdog in the Michigan-Notre Dame series is 24-4 ATS since 1978, with 16 of the

wins coming in straight-up fashion.Be sure to read the INCREDIBLE STAT OF THE DAY

every day online at the new PLAYBOOK.com website!

INCREDIBLE STAT OF THE WEEK

TEAMS KEY FACTS, STATS & ATS TRENDS

NFL Games

SMARTBOX

FOUR ON THE FLOOROur powerful database tells us that Game Four is a critical turning point for most College Football teams, especially if they’re playing off their fi rst loss of the season. From a handicapping perspective, the venue goes a long way in determining Game Four ATS results as well. Check out the situations of teams in Game Four, off their initial loss of the season, since 1980…

BAD HOMERSTeams playing at HOME in this role tend to perform poorly as evidenced by a 90-109-3 ATS overall mark since 1980. Home teams in that role this week include: Arizona State, Michigan State, Tennessee, USC, Virginia Tech and Wake Forest – with Louisiana-Lafayette on deck next week. If these teams are allowing more than 27 points per game on the season (Wake Forest and La-Lafayette), they dip to 6-19-2 ATS. To top it off, if they are allowing more than 27 points per game on the season and are facing a foe that is not off a spread win of 35 or more points in its last game, these bummed-out hosts sink to 3-19-2 ATS. Wake Forest fi nds itself in this precarious role this week.

GOOD VISITORSTeams playing AWAY in this role somehow fi nd pointspread success, nearly reversing their home counterparts by going 101-78-2-1 ATS dating back to 1980. This week fi nds BYU, Maryland, Ole Miss, USF, Utah State and Virginia taking to the road this week after having their dreams of a perfect season ruined last week. (Note: Indiana will journey out in this role next week.) When these teams are also off an ATS loss, they improve to 89-56-1 ATS in these ‘Game Four On The Floor’ situations, with all of the above teams, except Utah State, in this role week. And if these teams off a spread loss are facing an opponent that is off a SU and ATS loss, they ratchet up to 28-11 ATS, including 17-4 ATS if they won 7 or fewer games last season. That would put Ole Miss in this desirable role this week.

There you have it… a critical Game Four theory that will likely ‘fl oor’ a team or two this week!


Remember: You Have A PLAYBOOK BEST BET Whenever Our Predicted Margin Of Victory Is 7 Or More Points In Favor Of Your Line

Jimbo and His Seminoles Grab A Tiger By The Tail...Brees & Company Place Bounty On Defenseless Chiefs...

THIS WEEK IN FOOTBALL - SEPTEMBER 19-24

Wednesday, September 19Kent St over BUFFALO by 1

It’s been quite a while since the Kent boys were seen smoking (2001 was their last winning season) but with 18 starters back from last year’s 5-win squad, we expect the Flashes to light up tonight in Buffalo. The Bulls did win the last meeting between these two (9-6 in 2009) but that brings their 2-5 SU and 0-7 ATS mark at home versus an opponent with revenge into play. Unfortunately, it doesn’t fi gure to get any better as there may be more castaways (18) on the Caramoan Islands in the Philippines for the start of ‘Survivor’ than in University of Buffalo Stadium tonight for this meaningless midweek monstrosity. Speaking of surviving, new Bulls’ defensive coordinator Lou Tepper may be hearing from the tribe soon as his stop-unit has allowed 79 points through their opening two contests. And while we’re at it, we should also point out that teams playing regular-season games on Wednesdays are 4-0 SU and ATS when playing off a loss of 33 or more points – and that fi ts Kent to a tee as the Flashes arrive off a 47-14 drubbing at Kentucky. With that being said, we have no choice but to grab the spot as hump day helps the blues.

Thursday, September 20BOISE ST over Byu by 4

At fi rst glance, it appears as if BYU will hit the Blue Turf fl atter than Kate Moss following its bitter 24-21 loss to hated Utah. However, the Mormons look to be a dangerous dog tonight in Boise as they are 6-1 ATS when taking more than 3 points from the Mountain West and 8-4 ATS as road dogs off a previous away game. In fact, our PLAYBOOK.com database reports that BYU is actually 6-2-1 ATS following losses to the Utes. That suits us just fi ne as the oddsmakers have naturally caught up with the Broncos’ past success. Since becoming a lined team in 1999, Chris Petersen’s men are a moneymaking 47-27-1 ATS at Broncos Stadium, but just 1-7 ATS since the start of 2011. They’re also just 1-4 ATS as Game Three favorites and 2-5 ATS at home off a previous home engagement. The one sticking point for us in backing the Cougars is the fact that they took 22 points the last time they came to town in 2004 and now they’re barely getting over a touchdown. However, like the old proverb says, ‘a rolling stone gathers no moss’, so we’re not about to stay stagnant with all the numbers, not when our SMART BOX, clearly points in BYU’s direction. And while it may not be as easy as (American) pie, we say take what you can get as Kate and our bankroll grow fat on this rolling stone.

Saturday, September 22WAKE FOREST over Army by 1

Wake has bombed the Army like the Seals when they raided Abbottabad, covering six of seven all-time in the series. However, our SMART BOX says we must fade the Deacons in a major way this afternoon in Winston-Salem. And who are we to argue – especially with our PLAYBOOK.com database reminding us that home favorites of 2 or more points off a shutout loss own a 12-36 ATS mark this century. Yes, the Cadets are just 1-13 SU and 4-8-1 ATS on the ACC highway but they do command respect as single-digit road dogs under fourth-year head coach Rich Ellerson, posting a 3-2 SU and 4-1 ATS log. That alone tells us the visitors won’t get tarred and feathered on this trip down Tobacco Road. In fact, we wouldn’t be all that surprised should Ellerson’s gang ambush a worn-down Wake squad following their beating in Tallahassee. It’s a take as this series takes… an about-face.

5� BEST BET

The Seminoles delivered as a 4* Best Bet on these pages last week as they easily avenged a loss to Wake Forest. So if you feel like we feel and believe a payback is in order after last season’s setback in Clemson, then let us know that it’s real by laying the double digits and upgrading the Sems to a Category 5 this evening as the Tigers are an amazing 0-29 ATS in their last 29 SU losses off a win of 6 or more points when taking on an avenging foe. And to make matters worse for the Clemmie crew, the host in this series is 9-1 SU and 8-2 ATS since 2002. Our NCAA Coaches League also reports that FSU boss Jimbo Fisher is 10-1 SU and 8-3 ATS off a SU and ATS win while Clemson head man Dabo Swinney is 0-5 SU and 1-4 ATS on the road versus .500 or greater foes seeking revenge. Strong numbers, indeed, but the fi nishing touches comes from our powerful database as it notes: 3-0 teams at home in a Game Four conference matchup off a shutout win are 15-2 SU and 14-2-1 ATS since 1980, including 10-0 ATS when not laying 17 or more points. Thus, it really should come as no surprise to fi nd us backing the fi rst of 28 double-digit favorites on this week’s lopsided card. A ‘little dab won’t do ya’ as – like last week – revenge is served in Doak Campbell Stadium. We’ll throw it down with Chief Osceola and lay the points as the Seminoles improve to 4-0 ATS since 1993 in the fi nale of a four-game homestand.

FLORIDA ST over Clemson by 27

Friday, September 21Baylor over LA-MONROE by 6

This is the third grueling season-opening tilt for the Warhawks but after beating one SEC school (Arkansas) in overtime, and taking the other (Auburn) to extra sessions as well, they say bring on the Big 12. After all, the only time that the Bears picnicked in a Sun Belt stadium, they were thrashed 52-14 by North Texas in 2003. However, truth be told, Monroe is 0-6 SU and 2-4 ATS versus the Big 12 with the average loss coming by 39 points while Baylor is 11-3 ATS as favorites versus .500 or less opposition. But – and there’s almost always a but when we have a team underlined and bolded – these ‘Hawks have kept things ‘Berry’ interesting this season under their third-year head coach Todd Berry, not to mention going 5-1 SU and 6-0 ATS as in their last six as home dogs of more than 4 points. In what amounts to a tough call, we can’t trust the Bears away from their den, especially with a conference opener at West Virginia staring them in the face. Slight lean to the lesser-known ‘Browning’ bear… a.k.a. the Warhawks’ QB Kolton Browning.

It’s here! As you know, all PLAYBOOK Football Newlsetter subscribers are entitled to a FREE WEEK of Marc’s award-winnng PREFERRED PICKS Late Phone Football Service as a no-charge bonus, and the FREE WEEK is here.To take advantage simply call the PLAYBOOK Weekend Update Phone this Saturday anytime after 10 AM ET and you’re in. That’s all there is to it. FYI: if you don’t have your PLAYBOOK Weekend Update Phone number, simply call our offi ce today at 1.800.PLAYBOOK and we’ll we’ll be glad to pass the Weekend Update number along to you (note: selections will NOT be released on this toll free number).If you haven’t yet subscribed to the 2012 PLAYBOOK Football Newsletter for the season, you can do so today for only $129 thru the Super Bowl. Plus you will also receive a print copy of the 256-page 2012 PLAYBOOK Football Preview magazine as an added bonus.Now is the time. The best Football Newsletter on the planet thru the Super Bowl, the most popular Football Preview magazine in the nation – and a FREE WEEK of Marc’s Late Phone Football Service selections – to all 2012 PLAYBOOK Newsletter subscribers. Do it now – subscriber today – you’ll be glad you did. Call 1.800.752.9266 NOW!

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NOTE: Home team is shown in ALL CAPS. PLAYBOOK selection is Underlined and Bold. Should we pass or not have a

strong opinion on a game, neither team will be bolded.


Usf over BALL ST by 13Hesitantly, we’ll make hay with another double-digit favorite (don’t get used to this) as the SMART BOX insists that the Bulls – despite HC Skip Holtz’s poor favorite numbers – are a good visitor. We warned you last week about backing Holtz as chalk and the Bulls confi rmed our beliefs, losing to Rutgers, 23-13, as a 7.5-point choice. Skippy is also just 2-6 SU and ATS away in his career off a SU favorite loss while the Cardinals are 4-2 SU and 6-0 ATS in their second home game of the season. Yes, all the numbers point to the Redbirds but our sagacious square says following them will only put you in the red. USF did defeat Ball State, 37-7, as 20.5-point favorites last season (one of the two games they covered when laying last season) so maybe the square is onto something. We’re not going balls to the wall, but we will take a slow jog with the Bulls this afternoon in Muncie. Join us, but only if you need the exercise.

DUKE over Memphis by 20Before we begin to tell you about the Tigers’ woes under fi rst-year head coach Justin Fuente, let’s get this out of the way: Duke is a homecoming favorite with a conference opener on deck. While it’s certainly a smart move for the Dukies to schedule Memphis in this spot and send the alumni home happy, we absolutely despise homecoming chalk and, frankly, have no interest in making any deals with the Devils this week. Yes, Memphis is 0-3 SU, including a season-opening home loss to Tennessee-Martin. And, yes, the Tigers are 1-7-1 ATS before beginning conference play of their own. However, thanks to lines that are bigger than the ones Charlie Sheen snorts, the Tigers are 7-1-1 ATS as dogs versus the ACC, which ties in nicely to Duke’s 3-11 ATS log as favorites of 3 or more points. And while we realize that the visitors are not ‘en fuego’ – or ‘en fuente’ – in this case, we’ll grab the points as long as it stays over three touchdowns. A simple case of take it or leave it will suffi ce tonight in Durham.

MICHIGAN ST over E Michigan by 28What the heck happened to an Eagles’ stop-unit that improved over 100 yards per game in 2011? The sight of Eastern Michigan’s porous rush defense (allowing 312 YPG) should have State’s Le’Veon Bell drooling while the mere fact that the EMUs are 0-20 SU and 4-10-1 ATS versus the Big Ten should have us ‘rushing’ to the window. Not so fast, Le’Veon. The Spartans are not only in a bad scheduling spot (off the Irish with the Buckeyes up next), but they are also a SMART BOX fade. Sparty is also a dejected 4-12 ATS off his fi rst loss of the season, including 2-8 ATS as home favorites. And when we toss in Eastern’s 5-1 ATS mark in the second of back-to-back roadies, you can see why it may be ‘Smart’ to grab the boatload. Grab the clothespin, apply fi rmly and do not – repeat, do not – turn on the Big Ten TV network between the hours of 3:30 and 7:00 EST as it may take a back-door cover to garner the cash.

VA TECH over Bowling Green by 13 The Bee Gees have been out of ATS tune the last two weeks but Marc’s ‘LEAN ON ME’ beauty from the Best of the Black Book sings the praises of 17 returning-starter dogs off back-to-back ATS losses – so expect some ‘refrain’ (a regularly recurring melody for non-music afi cionados) this afternoon in Blacksburg from the Bowling Green boys. Yes, we realize that Tech HC Frank Beamer has beaten the MAC like a snare drum (12-1 SU, 7-3 ATS) but his Hokies are on a current 0-3-1 ATS run since last year’s ACC title game and simply can’t be trusted laying doubles until they show us the money. They also don’t play Beamer Ball after tangling with Pitt (1-4 ATS) and that fi ts like a fat girl in a tuba section to the Falcons’ 13-5 ATS log as double-digit non-conference dogs and 7-3 ATS mark in the second of back-to-back road games. Simply put, that’s music to our ears. Like Steve Miller always says, “TAKE the money and run.”

IOWA over C Michigan by 17Kirk Ferentz’s slow-starting Hawkeyes (2-1 SU, 0-2 ATS) have had surprising trouble against Iowa schools this season (lost to Iowa State, beat Northern Iowa 27-16) so the sight of a team from the state of Michigan may be just the thing they need to beam them into 2012. Especially one that resides in the MAC as Iowa is 12-2 SU and 11-3 ATS at home against this conference. It also helps that the Chippewas are just 3-8 ATS in road openers against non-conference opposition. The Chips have also been down against Big Ten foes, winning just 2 of 22 of the SU scoreboard (though they have covered fi ve of the last seven). However, given Ferentz’s penchant for playing up or down to the level of his opposition – and Iowa’s 1-5 ATS mark at home off back-to-back home games – laying this kind of lumber with the offensively-challenged Hawkeyes is not our calling card. We’ve crossed our ‘Eyes and dotted our C’s (as in Central), so you’re on your own here. Next.

OHIO ST over Uab by 39The fast-starting Buckeyes haven’t put the pedal to the metal the last two weeks, dropping Meyer’s brilliant mark at home against non-conference opposition to 19-4-1 ATS. But that’s really the only way we can look today in Columbus as UAB should provide the perfect fodder for an Ohio State team that has yet to leave the Horseshoe this season. Not only are the Buckeyes 4-1 ATS as favorites of 31 or more points – which doesn’t require any hemming to the Blazers’ 1-4 ATS mark of dogs of more than 24 points – but they are also 6-1 ATS in Game Four of the season… which fi ts nicely to UAB’s 0-5 SU and ATS record in their last fi ve games against undefeated opposition. We know the Buckeyes have let us down the past two weeks (once in this newsletter, the other on the PLAYBOOK Weekend Update Hotline), but – along with the alumni – we’re rewarded for our perseverance in this lopsided nooner.

NORTH CAROLINA over East Carolina by 17Hats off to Larry Fedora’s Tar Heels who almost pulled off a miracle comeback at Louisville, rallying from a 36-7 halftime defi cit only to lose 39-34 with the ball inside the Cardinals’ 10-yard line late in the game and four cracks at the end zone. We sure would like to see star RB Giovanni Bernard, who missed the Louisville contest, back in the starting lineup but either way we recommend laying the doubles as Fedora is very familiar with the Pirates (3-1 ATS) from his days at Southern Miss and his Heels are 5-0 ATS in this series since 2003. Carolina is also 7-3 ATS off two losses exact versus an opponent off a SU win while ECU HC Ruffi n McNeil is 0-2 ATS away off a SU dog win (ironically, upset Southern Miss). And our soon-to-be-released (as in this Wednesday) MIDWEEK ALERT newsletter notes that while the Bucs are off to a 2-1 start, they have been outgained in every contest, including the opener against Appalachian State. Thus, off three straight stat losses, and a major conference-revenge win with another conference revenger on deck, it’s safe to say we’re not heading east for this Carolina clash. Lay it AND play it.

3� BEST BET

Finally off the schneid, the Nittany Lions welcome a foe they’ve abused like a red-headed stepchild over the years. For all you history buffs out there, we ‘Betcha Didn’t Know’ that the last time Temple posted a win in this series ‘we were so much younger than today’ – since that occurred on October 18, 1941 – seven weeks before the Japanese bombed Pearl Harbor! The Lions are 36-0-1 SU since and Marc’s says ‘Help’ isn’t on the way for the Owls, but rather for the 1-2 hosts. In fact, Temple is taking to the road for the fi rst time all season with just four returning starters on offense and fi ve more on defense – making them a certifi ed ‘Green Team.’ It also doesn’t ‘help’ that the Owlets are 1-21 SU as dogs in their fi rst roadie of the season and 1-6 ‘In The Stats’ over their last seven regular-season contests. Even though those days are gone – unlike the Beatles – we’re self-assured about this outcome. Lions roar as the Owls get caught looking ahead to their long-awaited Big East opener.

PENN ST over Temple by 19

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WEST VIRGINIA over Maryland by 24The Mountaineers are putting up big numbers to start the season, the most impressive of which is QB Geno Smith’s 88% pass completion (66 of 75) to go along with 734 yards, nine TD’s and zero INT’s. On paper, this looks like a complete mismatch (hence the four TD line), especially with the Hillbilllies’ 5-0 SU and ATS mark in this series since 2005, and 4-0 ATS as double-digit non-conference favorites. However, the feeling here is that HC Dana Holgorsen will show very little with a Big 12 opener against Baylor on deck. Yes, the Terrapins aren’t much but their stingy defense (227 YPG) is ranked 8th in the nation through the fi rst three weeks of the season and should keep them in games. It also doesn’t hurt that we get a nod from the SMART BOX as Randy Edsall’s group arrives in Morgantown as ‘good visitors.’ We may need to hurry up the clock as the Turtles have been slow fi nishers this season, but it’s another double-digit take as the Terps improve to 8-3 ATS in Game Fours.

WISCONSIN over Utep by 17The ‘Price’ has been right for UTEP backers in these non-conference affairs when the Miners enter off a SU win as head coach Mike Price owns a lifetime 20-8 ATS mark in this role. The problem the El Paso eleven face today, though, is catching a Badgers bunch that has to be in a gnarly mood following a third straight lackluster performance. It’s safe to say that QB Danny O’Brien is no Russell Wilson as Wisky hasn’t taken many ‘shots’ downfi eld in 2012, averaging just 16.3 PPG and 276 YPG while being outstatted in two of three contests. History says those numbers should rise signifi cantly today as the Miners were wiped out in their only other meeting against the Big Ten – a 67-9 thrashing as 32.5-points dogs at the hands of Iowa in 1986. And while we’re sure that Badgers’ head coach Bret Bielema won’t show mercy if given the chance, we just can’t lay this many points with the Cheeseheads until they get their act together. Bottom line is there are just too many holes in this non-conference clash to get involved. Pass.

MIAMI OHIO over UMass by 27Yikes, this is a disaster waiting to happen. And yet, somehow we can all be privy to it just by clicking to ESPN3.com. Just like that unsuspecting antelope grabbing a drink in croc-infested waters, we know it won’t end well for UMass, yet the big wigs at ESPN feel some will be interested. We’re not. In fact, we want nothing to do with this meaningless MAC opener. Our Midweek Alert tells us that both schools are winless ‘ITS’ (In The Stats) in the fi ve combined games they played against FBS foes this season, with every one of the Minutemen stat losses coming by more than 300 yards, and the RedHawks’ average beat down checking in at 299 YPG. Heck, UMass couldn’t even bring home the bacon last week as 45-points dogs at Michigan. Hence, to no one’s surprise, they arrive in Oxford on Homecoming Day. Like we mentioned in the Duke writeup in their contest versus Memphis, it will send the alumni home happy. However, you know our feeling about laying heavy wood in Homecoming affairs and we’re not about to start here – not with a Miami bunch that is 2-4 ATS as home favorites of 20 or more points off a SU loss. Don’t play, don’t watch. Heck, don’t even pass go. Next.

GEORGIA over Vanderbilt by 20The fi fth-ranked Bulldogs haven’t been all that impressive in their non-conference wins to date (Buffalo, FAU) but they did show Missouri who’s the boss in the SEC East this season and we have a feeling the Commodores are about to get that same lesson. The numbers aren’t particularly good on either side as Vandy arrives with a 2-7 ATS mark as double-digit dogs,

a 1-4 ATS log in the fi rst of back-to-back roadies and a 1-4 ATS record on the road with SEC revenge while Georgia shows a weak 2-8 ATS log as conference favorites of 12 or more points and 4-14 ATS mark versus a foe with conference payback. This would normally have us in a quandary but Marc’s ‘THE TIMES THEY ARE A-CHANGIN’ Betcha Didn’t Know article from the 2011 Black Book sorts out this mess as it reminds us to fade teams who fi nished the season 6-7 when they hit the road off a SU win. That lines us up squarely against the Commies and that’s fi ne with us as we like to keep things in the ‘Black’ – not to mention by the ‘Book.’ We’ll also ‘capitalize’ on the shortest opening line in this series on this fi eld in 28 years by laying it between the hedges.

Utah St over COLORADO ST by 15It’s hard to lay this kind of number with a team that’s been installed as two-touchdown road favorites only two other times in 84 lined away games but our SMART BOX is chomping at the bit to mine with the Aggies, so we’ll oblige, We are a bit skeptical, though, as USU is a winless 0-4-1 ATS as road chalk of 6 or more points all-time and 0-4 SU in this series since 1994. However, Gary Andersen’s men are a clean 2-0 ATS and 3-0 ‘ITS’ this season and that may be enough to handle a Rams’ squad that is a not-so tough 1-7 SU in their last eight home games and 1-10 SU in their last 11 overall. So with both teams clearly heading in opposite directions and the intelligent rectangle ramming the visitors – not the hosts – down our throats, we’ll stop Aggie-nizing for the time being and lean slightly to the left side of the page. We’ll look ‘Smart’ if the Aggies can break that large road cherry tonight in Fort Collins.

ARKANSAS over Rutgers by 6 In a roundabout way, the Knights are off to a 3-0 SU and ‘ITS’ start as they have won at home against an FCS school and a pair of FBS games on the road, including a conference opener at USF. They hope this third road game will be another charm but it really depends on the status of Arkansas QB Tyler Wilson, whose absence from last week’s game against Alabama was tantamount to disaster for the Hogs. Arky is now off back-to-back 30-point ATS losses – and home favorites off just one of these devastating losses are just 8-13-2 ATS. We certainly don’t want any of that but do we want any part of a Rutgers team that is taking less than a touchdown in this game (would have been big double-digits if this was played in Week One) as of this writing? The Scarlet may be 4-0 ATS in their last four versus the SEC but they are also in the middle of a conference sandwich with a UConn revenger waiting in the wings. The bottom line – and we really won’t know one until Mr. Wilson’s status is determined – is that this game is a ‘menace’ to handicap. We may sort this out later in the week when the number settles. Pass for now.

TULSA over Fresno St by 3After hanging with Oregon in a 17-point road loss, the Bulldogs returned home and took out some frustration on Colorado, whipping the Buffaloes 69-14. And while we like that 69 number, we also like the fact that Fresno won the game by more than 50 points: road dogs off a SU and ATS win by more than that margin are 27-11 ATS, including 17-3 ATS versus an .800 or less opponent. We also suggest keeping a close eye on the line (currently at 5.5) as the Bulldogs are 17-3-2 ATS as non conference road dogs of more than 5 points, including a lucky 7-0 ATS off a SU win. And if you like the idea of barking with the Bulldogs this week, then you’ll like seeing Tulsa at home for a third straight week as the Hurricane are just 1-4 ATS as home favorites off back-to-back homers. So with powerful trends and systems working against the Hurricane, we have no choice but to downgrade them to a (incomplete) passing gust of wind tonight at Skelly Field.

Marshall over RICE by 7If you haven’t already ‘Herd’, Marshall delivered as our College False Favorite Game of the Month last Saturday when they outgained Ohio U by nearly 100 yards while holding the Bobcats to under 400 yards for the fi rst time this season. And there’s no reason to think Thunder only happens when it’s raining (the forecast calls for temperatures in the high 80’s with scattered clouds and little chance of precipitation) as a 550-YPG offense meets up with a 530-YPG defense today at Rice Stadium. To make matters worse for the hosts, wise handicappers already know that the Owls are 0-3 SU and 1-2 ATS in their last three conference lid-lifters, allowing 42 or more points in each of those contests. How many licks does it take to get to the center of a Tootsie Roll Pop? We’re not sure ‘cause we’ve never gotten that far, but we do know that the pertinent numbers tells us Rice gets fried under the hot Houston sun. An easy licking by the Herd.


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TCU over Virginia by 17While our SMART BOX says to take a Cavalier attitude today in Fort Worth, our ‘REVERSE MISSION’ team theory (fade a team with a winning record last year that is coming off three or more straight losing campaigns) says otherwise. And while our database tells us that the Cavs are a healthy 7-3 ATS as double-digit dogs, it also reminds us that they are 2-10 ATS in the second of back-to-back road games. Mike London’s men also take on a TCU squad that while owning the nation’s longest current win streak (10) is just 1-6 ATS as double-digit non-conference favorites. So when you couple UVA’s ‘on-and-against’ theories with the fact that the Frogs have a nasty revenger on deck with SMU (the last team to beat them), we have no choice but to sit and watch. It may not be the ‘Smart’ move, but it’s the right move. Mission accomplished.

NO ILLINOIS over Kansas by 7With eight conference games left on the docket after this week – and fi ve of those on the road – this looks to be KU’s best chance to nab an FBS win this season. In fact, their only non-FCS win last season was against this same NIU squad as 4-point home dogs. Yes, the Huskies are on a roll (11-1 SU last 12) but this is not a spot for them to be laying close to double digits. A MAC opener with Central Michigan awaits in which they’ll be anxious to avenge their only conference loss of 2011. As it is, the Huskies are just 2-6 ATS before facing the Chippewas. And after falling in Lawrence last season, they dropped to 1-5 SU and 1-4 ATS against Big 12 opposition – which shouldn’t come as a surprise since Big 12 squads are 30-7 SU and 24-11 ATS versus MAC foes, including a perfect 5-0 SU and ATS the past two seasons. Even the lowly Jayhawks have gotten into the act as they have won and covered their last three against the MAC, with the average win coming by 27 PPG. Weis’ boys aren’t much but this is major step down in class with plenty of room for error. It’s a ‘take’ as Charlie engineers a cover.

OREGON over Arizona by 27 This is a statement game for the 3-0 Wildcats and they gain support from our PLAYBOOK.com database as it notes: undefeated teams in Game Four, off a shutout win, are a nifty 21-12-2 ATS versus conference opposition since 1980. Rich Rod should be also happy to learn that his ‘Cats are 5-1 ATS away when seeking conference revenge and 5-2 ATS in this series since 2005. However, for us the wind quickly comes out of the Rich man’s sails knowing Zona is 1-9 SU and 2-8 ATS in its initial roadie of the season, including 0-6 ATS versus a foe off a SU win. Honestly, Oregon’s imposing 28-8-1 ATS mark at home off a previous home encounter had us at hello and makes it extremely diffi cult to fade these high-powered Ducks in Eugene. In what appears to be another game of Duck, Duck opponent gets Goosed, we’ll tab the hosts to pull out the cover as – like the game – there always seems to be more Ducks on the fi eld… especially on offense. Lay the northwest lumber.

4� BEST BET

The Bruins’ metamorphosis continues under Jim Mora but with all their success comes an adjustment from the linesmaker – and it’s now time to take full advantage. Remember, they were 4-point underdogs in Corvallis last season when they upset the Beavers in the conference opener for both squads. They’ve now been installed as a 10-point home choice and that’s too much of a line swing for our liking considering the Bruins are 1-3 SU and 0-4 ATS in Pac-12 home openers and 2-6 ATS versus a foe with conference revenge. We can also toss in the fact that the Beavers are 6-1 ATS away with conference payback and 9-3 ATS with rest but this 4* beauty is just getting started. Not only does last week’s ‘Early Respite’ SMART BOX (Game Two off a SU win with a week of rest) have us thinking Beaver but so does this week’s TRIVA TEASER as Oregon State head coach Mike Riley does his best work when exacting revenge. The clincher, though, is provided by our database as it reports: teams in Game Two, off a SU win, are 17-6 SU and 16-7 ATS since 1980 when facing a team playing Game Four, including 9-1 SU and ATS the last 20 years. Where else but Playbook can you fi nd that information? We say grab the points but you may not need ‘em as an outright OSU win wouldn’t surprise. Either way, leave it to the Beavers to garner the cash. A must take.

UCLA over Oregon St by 1

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USC over California by 11That giant gagging sound you heard last Saturday night didn’t come from Twihards reacting to the news that RPatz might be reuniting with Kristen the Cheater. No, it emanated from the stunned mouths of the countless college football pundits that had prematurely anointed USC as this year’s heir apparent to the BCS title. With their attention undoubtedly focused on the November 3rd showdown with Oregon, the Trojans were unable to take care of business in an ugly 21-14 loss to Stanford. “It’s not the end of the world,” said head coach Lane Kiffi ng but with Southern Cal’s powerful offense coughing up three fi rst-half turnovers and struggling to just 285 yards against the supposedly outmanned Cardinal, the Trojans showed they’ve got a long way to go before they can challenge the likes of Alabama or LSU. Fortunately O.J.’s alma mater gets to lace ‘em up against conference whipping boy Cal here, a team they’ve beaten eight straight times, with the last three wins coming by an average score of 36-9. However, despite USC’s recent 6-1 ATS series dominance, we can’t side with the home team after last week’s giant bubble burst… especially when our PLAYBOOK.com database steers us toward the visitors. Not only are the Bears a perfect 6-0 ATS as Game Four dogs, HC Jeff Tedford owns a 14-3 ATS edge when getting 6 or more points, including a brawny 11-1 ATS mark when not playing off a pointspread loss. Conversely, the men of Troy are a woeful 0-5 ATS of late at the Coliseum off back-to-back road games and they’ve covered just THREE of their last 16 Game Fours. California showed some fi ght when they overcame a slow start to outstat Ohio State by 100 yards in a 7-point loss at the Horseshoe last week. And with the Pac-12 cellar-dwelling Trojans showing up as a SMART BOX fade, their not-so-trusty 1-2 ‘In The Stats’ mark this season has us on a Bear hunt in the Hollywood hills today.

WASHINGTON ST over Colorado by 14Since a callout on our cover page promises analysis on every game, we feel a certain responsibility to pick a side in each lined contest. Except for games like THIS. We told you last week that the Buffaloes were so bad they had replaced the ‘Play Like A Champion’ sign at the entrance to their training facility with ‘Abandon Hope, All Ye Who Enter Here.’ Honestly, how the hell do you lose to a 2nd-rate team like Fresno State by 55 points? But as bad as the Buffs are (and they’re VERY bad, outgained by 115 yards per game this year), the clawless Cougars have been cast into a role here they clearly can’t handle. Check out this litany of failure: 1-5 ATS as double-digit chalk off back-to-back SU wins, 2-7 ATS the last nine as favories of 14 or more points, and 4-32 SU in their last 36 conference games – with ZERO wins by more than 17 points. Do you want any of that? Didn’t think so! But with Ralphie a horrendous 1-12 SU and 2-10-1 ATS away off consecutive losses versus a foe off a SU win, our ‘play Colorado’ recommendation means you should do so only if a revolver is pointed at your temple and you MUST pick a side. Regardless, those unlucky enough to view this nightmare will probably discover that Dante was wrong: Hell has more than nine circles!

Lsu over AUBURN by 14It takes thick skin to be Gene Chizik right now. After leading Auburn to the BCS title two years ago, the Tigers have fallen into a state of disrepair, leading many to question if Chizik is a coaching sheep in wolf’s clothing.

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Yes, his squad dumped its SEC opener to Mississippi State two weeks ago – after dropping four conference contests in 2011 by a whopping margin of 31 PPG. But let’s get real, Auburn fans. Cam Newton was a once-in-a-decade superstar and without similar talent to take over the QB position, a decline was inevitable. Despite the Tigers’ downturn this season, they’re still a home dog off an overtime win here, and these guys are a rock solid 40-23-1 ATS since the inception of overtime in college football, including 14-2 ATS since 2009. Chizik’s team doesn’t exactly show up without additional pointspread ammo. Auburn is 5-1 ATS when prowling with conference revenge, 5-1 ATS as a home dog of 6 or more points, and 8-2 ATS playing the 2nd of 3 straight home games. The Tigers from Baton Rouge counter with a solid 15-3 ATS success in conference road openers, including 6-1 ATS as chalk, but the nation’s No. 2 team has yet to be tested in 2012, overpowering mediocre teams like North Texas, Washington and Idaho. And with the exception of a 42-14 blowout loss to the Tide, Aubbie held serve in every other game at Jordan-Hare Stadium last year (6-1 SU). Chizik’s 10-1 ATS record at home with revenge versus an opponent off a SU win seals it. Take the points.

GEORGIA TECH over Miami Fla by 17Ol’ Sourpuss fi nally has something to smile about. After letting the season opener against Virginia Tech slip away in OT, Georgia Tech head coach Paul Johnson engineered back-to-back blowouts. The fi rst, a 59-3 pummeling of Presbyterian, was fully expected. But last week’s annihilation of ACC foe Virginia was shocking in its severity. The Yellow Jackets unleashed a ground assault that piled up 461 yards on 50 carries, averaging a near-fi rst down with each run from scrimmage (9.2 YPC). Now owning the No. 2 rushing attack in the land at 347 RYPG, we see no reason for Johnson’s upside-down frown to disappear on Saturday. Miami managed to regroup with a home win over Bethune-Cookman but the Canes are painfully young on defense and it’s starting to show. They’ve been gashed for 465 YPG (No. 104), including 207 RYPG (No. 105) – not a good omen against Tech’s surging power attack. Miami has won and covered three straight in the series but they were favored in all three games, not a two-TD dog like they are here. If that seems like a hefty price, bear in mind that Canes coach Al Golden’s teams are 14-5 SU and 13-5 ATS versus opponents they defeated in the most recent meeting. Throw in Johnson’s 25-12-1 ATS mark when seeking revenge, including 9-1-1 ATS as chalk of 3 or more points, and we’ll look for the grin to remain on PJ’s face when the fi nal gun sounds here. Lay it if you play it.

Wyoming over IDAHO by 5What do you do when asked to choose between sex with your mother-in-law or her sister? You sit it out on the sidelines, that’s what. We’ll employ that approach here between two teams in such turmoil that Las Vegas’ Deep Blue linemaking computer (the one that kicked ass on ‘Jeopary’) blew out the main powergrid trying to pick a favorite in the game. Here are the facts as we know them: Wyoming, an 8-5 bowl team in 2011, has staggered to an 0-3 start this year – as have the winless Vandals from Moscow. We can forgive the Cowboys for losing the season opener to Texas, but home losses to Toledo and Cal Poly? WTF? The problem is a Wyoming rush offense that’s No. 123 in the land (only Tulane’s is worse), thus making the availability of starting QB Brett Smith a must. Smith was knocked out of last week’s game to CPU by a head injury and the Cowboys rode straight into the tank

behind backup Colby ‘Don’t Call Me Soren’ Kirkegaard. But even if Smith can’t play, how can we recommend an Idaho squad that is now now 2-13 SU since last season, having outgained only one foe (North Dakota) in the process? We can’t, so we’ll make it easy for you. Play the Pokes with Smith; pass without.

FLORIDA over Kentucky by 18Based solely on last week’s results, this looks like one of the biggest no-brainers on the card. However, we’re not convinced that Florida has fully returned to bad-boy status just yet, not when the Gators were trailing at Knoxville before the Vols began to repeatedly shoot themselves in both feet. And UK’s loss to Western Kentucky was not an unforgivable disaster, not when the Hilltoppers left Lexington as SU winners of 9 of their last 11 games – with the two losses coming against LSU and Alabama! Yes, the Wildcats are likely still shell-shocked off their OT loss to little brother but our database offers this antidote: 1-2 conference dogs in Game Four off a loss are 28-11 ATS when facing an undefeated foe off back-to-back ATS wins, including 20-5 ATS if the dog lost to the spread by 5 or more points in that defeat. Now those are some smelling salts that WORK! Reptile lovers will point to the Gators’ recent 5-0 ATS series dominance but Florida is shackled by a host of not-so-good numbers in today’s role. UF is a moneyburning 0-5 ATS in the Swamp off consecutive road trips, 1-4 ATS at home versus a conference revenger, and just 3-7-1 ATS at Gainesville after tangling with Tennessee. With mighty LSU on deck for Florida, we’ll call for a slight letdown against a Kentucky team the linesmaker has dismissed as little more than an alligator appetizer. Gators win, but not by enough.

Connecticut over W MICHIGAN by 6Hmmm, maybe he’s STILL got it. Entering this season, we were of the opinion that UConn head coach Paul Pasqualoni had clearly seen his better days and should consider being put out to pasture. Not any more, not after a badly-wanted win – by coaches and players alike – over former Huskies mentor Randy Edsall last week. The knee jerk reaction here would be to fade Connecticut off that heady achievement but the UConn ‘D’ looks like the real deal, holding all three of this year’s foes to season-low yardage. Defense has been one of the few bright spots for the Broncos so far, a bit of a surprise as that unit got smashed with regularity in 2011 (gave up an incredible 804 yards to Toledo – not a typo!). To their credit, despite only one win on the docket this campaign against Eastern Illinois, the Broncos managed to hold both Illinois and Minnesota to season-low yards in their two losses. Connecticut does own an edge in the numbers game, going 19-4 SU and 15-7-1 ATS in lined games versus MAC opponents while WMU checks in with a sorry 3-14 SU and 3-12-2 ATS log in its previous 17 walks as a home dog. With only Buffalo ahead for UConn, and Pasqualoni looking to get even for last year’s 38-31 home loss to Cubit, expect another team effort from the sled dogs here.

SOUTH CAROLINA over Missouri by 7Tigers fought the good fi ght against Arizona State last Saturday, hanging on for a 4-point win despite the absence of star QB James Franklin (injured elbow, check status). Missouri HC Gary Pinkel better pray that Franklin is ready for duty today as Mizzou’s fi rst trip out of the Show-Me state takes them straight to the chaos that is Columbia, South Carolina – and this season’s second dose of the SEC. Steve Spurrier’s Gamecocks are ranked No. 8 in the current USA Today Sports poll but they’re rarely mentioned in the same breath as conference heavyweights Alabama, LSU and Georgia. Under the radar or not, however, Spurrier has quarterback problems of his own: junior QB Connor Shaw, who was hurt in the opener at Vanderbilt, was forced to leave late in the second quarter of last week’s UAB game after re-injuring his right shoulder. Regardless of how the two QB situations play out, the Tigers hit town with much better ATS numbers in tow. They’re a perfect 7-0 ATS off a three-game homestand, 5-0 ATS as double-digit dogs in the fi rst of back-to-back road games, and 4-1 in Game Four of the season. Surprisingly, even though the ‘Cocks’ stop unit gets a lot of SEC cred for their punishing style of play, Missouri actually fi elds the better squad. So far they’ve held every 2012 foe to season-low yardage marks, not a situation you usually encounter with a 10-point underdog. South Carolina’s current seven-game win streak – tied for the second-longest in team history – tells us where to fi nd the SU winner. But the barnyard fowls’ unsatisfying 2-8 ATS effort as home chalk off consecutive home games versus a greater-than .500 opponent says the green goes home with Mizzou.

NOTE: Home team is shown in ALL CAPS. PLAYBOOK selection is Underlined and Bold. Should we pass or not have a

strong opinion on a game, neither team will be bolded.


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GAME OF THE WEEKUPSETUPSET UPSETUPSET

Michigan over NOTRE DAME by 4Last Saturday while viewing the Notre Dame-Michigan State game, we were struck by the incredible resemblance between Irish head coach Brian Kelly and Frank Sutton, the late actor who portrayed Sgt. Vince Carter on the ‘Gomer Pyle-USMC’ show. In fact, watching Kelly berate one of his players while his nostrils fl ared and eyes bugged out in exasperation, we were transported back to a time when Sgt. Carter would scream, “Pyle, you knucklehead! My old grandmother could do better than that!” However, if our powerful database could talk out loud, it might make the same observation regarding Notre Dame’s recent pointspread success in tonight’s role. While they HAVE held all three foes to season-low yards this year, the Dame is 0-6 ATS as a favorite after a SUATS win over a Big Ten foe when facing an opponent off a win of of 24 or more points. Wait, it gets worse. The Irish are 0-3 ATS after Sparty, 3-10 ATS as home chalk of 6 or more points, and 2-6 ATS as home favorites with revenge versus a Big Ten opponent. The hosts are also a deathly 0-6 ATS in their last six as chalk in games after knocking off an undefeated adversary – plus we know from experience that if things start to go south for the Irish, Kelly will launch into his red-faced, exploding head routine. We say color the Wolverines dangerous here as our INCREDIBLE STAT OF THE WEEK on page 3 comes to their aid – along with a vicious 8-1 ATS effort as non-conference dogs of less than 13 points. The latest chapter in a series ruled by underdogs and upsets goes to… Michigan.

Syracuse over MINNESOTA by 6Unlike Missouri or South Carolina, the Minnesota program is not suffi ciently evolved to survive the absence of a starting quarterback. However, that’s the situation in Minneapolis as the Gophers have lost star QB Marquies Gray for a few weeks with a high ankle sprain suffered in last Saturday’s win over Western Michigan. Jerry Kill’s squad will face a hungry Syracuse outfi t playing better than its 1-2 record suggests: the Orange dropped a 1-point heartbreaker to Northwestern in Game One (Cats scored with 44 seconds remaining), then played the tits off USC before fading late in a 42-29 defeat. The ‘Cuse has a legitimate revenge factor here, too, losing to the Gophers in head coach Doug Marrone’s debut with the Orange back in 2009 (isn’t it a dish best served cold?). A trip to the ATS archives tells us today’s role favors the visitors, too, as Syracuse is 8-4 ATS off its fi rst win of the season while the Gophers are an awful 0-3 SU before Big Ten openers the last three years (lost to North Dakota State in 2011). With zero shades of Gray in the huddle, no Minnesota for us!

OKLAHOMA over Kansas St by 16As the squirrels in Oklahoma like to say, this is one tough nut to crack. Neither team has tasted defeat in 2012 and Bill Snyder’s Wildcats are one of four schools in the Big 12 that’s off to a 3-0 start. What we really like about this year’s K-State squad is this: they’re 3-0 ‘In The Stats’ in their three wins… as opposed to last year’s 3-10 ITS effort in a 10-win season. The Wild ones have also treated this series like their personal ATM when playing at Norman, cashing in eight of the last nine trips. Add in lots more good numbers with KSU: 4-1 ATS in its fi rst conference game, 4-1 ATS as a road dog off three straight home dates and 10-4 ATS the last 14 lined games. Thus, rubber band snappin’ with the visitors seems like a foregone conclusion. But then we get a look at the Sooner side of things and worry we might be snapping with the wrong side! That’s because OU head coach Bob Stoops is 10-0 SU and 7-3 ATS at home with a week off to recharge, plus Game Four favorites of 14 or more points in a matchup of 3-0 teams fi nds the chalk standing 8-4-1 ATS. Reinforcements are available on request: Oklahoma has gone 4-0 ATS at home of late with rest, 8-2 in the second of back-to-back home games, and 3-1 ATS in the last four series meetings. Damn… what’s a handicapper to do? Good trends abound for both teams but the feeling here is the Sooners are getting scant national attention and need to make some noise in a statement game. It won’t be easy but ‘lay’ looks to be the way today.

NEW MEXICO ST over New Mexico by 3The Brain Trust in Albuquerque are smart enough to know new head coach Bob Davie doesn’t have the manpower to compete with the likes of Texas or Texas Tech. However, they do expect him to win THIS game… especially after last year’s blood-curdling 42-28 loss to NMSU, one of the Lobos’ worst. Series history strongly favors the visitors as they’re 3-0-1 ATS in the last four trips to this fi eld and 24-9 SU, with only two defeats coming by more than 7 points. One thing’s for sure, Davie will kick a cripple when it’s down. He’s

lined more than a few wallets with his 9-1 ATS mark as a dog or favorite of 17 or fewer points versus a .333 or worse foe. Nothing that profi table going on in Las Cruces where the Aggies are 0-13 ATS at home versus a foe with revenge, a stat made even more incredible by this fact: if you lose to New Mexico State to begin with, you’ve probably got one crappy team on your hands. And seeing as how the Aggies are an awful 3-14-1 ATS as chalk of less than 9 points,we have no choice but to grab the points in this Payback Special. Lobos!

TENNESSEE over Akron by 30As we suspected, Derek Dooley and Tennessee weren’t quite ready for prime-time, blowing a 20-13 third-quarter lead in a humbling 37-20 home loss to Florida. Now the Vols have to climb out of an emotional hole to deal with a team they’re expected to destroy… even though they’d rather concentrate on their upcoming SEC game at Georgia. Sitting at 1-2 SU, the Zips will settle for ANY win they can get. And though they may not grab the SU variety here, our database suggests ringing the pointspread register is a distinct possibility. Akron is 6-1 ATS before facing Miami Ohio, 4-1 ATS in Game Four and 4-1 ATS away before consecutive home games. Tennessee, meanwhile, is just 1-3 ATS in its third straight homer and 3-8 ATS as a Game Four favorite. A word of caution – check the injury status of Zips QB Dalton Williams (listed as probable), a transfer from Stephen F. Austin who has thrown for 10 TD’s this seaosn. The fi fth-year senior completed a school record 37 passes in 48 attempts for 446 yards in Saturday’s 66-6 romp over Morgan State before leaving the game in the third quarter with a chest injury after being served a ‘McRib’ sandwich by two MSU defenders. Can’t ignore UT coach Dooley’s 16-7 ATS career mark as a favorite (6-0 ATS when laying 20 or more points!) but our SMART BOX reminds us we can’t trust the Vols this week. Zip it.

Mississippi over TULANE by 17Okay, so we may have jumped the gun a bit using the Rebels as our Upset Special last week (turns out WE were upset after Texas trashed ‘em, 66-31). Hugh Freeze’s Ole Miss team got exposed defensively in that one so it’s back to the drawing board against a bonafi de cupcake before taking on top-ranked Alabama next week. Mississippi may not have to labor long to devise a scheme capable of shutting down the Green Wave: Tulane’s attack ranks an offensive 123rd in the nation (only UMass is worse), having gained just 15 total rushing yards in two games! Junior QB Ryan Griffi n is currently listed as ‘doubtful’ for the Greenies and if he can’t go… well, let’s just say the Wave badly needs his presence. With or without Griffi n, the hosts slink into today’s contest trailed by the stench of a 12-game losing skid. That sort of futility translates into low fan attendance, the main reason Tulane home games have a mausoleum-type feel in the cavernous Mercedes-Benz Superdome. Ole Miss is 5-1 SUATS before challenging the Tide and has the athletes to stem today’s wave of another color. It’s the color of money – and the money belongs to Mississippi.

Louisiana Tech over ILLINOIS by 5Lots of question marks here. This is the third game in a row that iffy QB Nate Scheelhaase remains sidelined for the Illini with an ankle injury suffered in the season opener versus Western Michigan (the Broncos really excel at injuring quarterbacks, don’t they?). The loss of Scheelhaase didn’t

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ADDED GAMESALABAMA over Fla Atlantic by 48

We’re not sure who’s in charge of scheduling for FAU but they clearly don’t have a clue: back-to-back road games against Georgia and Alabama? We know the money is good but damn – do the Owls really want to kick off next week’s Sun Belt home opener with half their team bruised and battered from a two-week journey through the SEC meat-grinder? Regardless, the mammoth pointspread on this contest (opened at Bama -51) sets up another take-it-or-leave-it situation, and out database is in full agreement. Because PLAYBOOK knew you’d want to know: 50-point dogs are 10-4 ATS, including 8-1 ATS versus an opponent that scored 36 or more points in its last game. Continuing with our theme, the top-ranked Tide has cashed just once in its last fi ve tries as chalk of more than 24 points versus the Sun Belt, and all favorites of 27 or more points off back-to-back shutout wins have posted a weak 1-5 ATS mark of late. Yes, the Owls are a hapless bunch (only win a 7-3 decision over FCS foe Wagner) but they are 5-1 ATS away off an ATS road win of more than 5 points. Alabama coach Saban is smart enough to pull his starters once things get out of hand so a back-door cover by FAU is not out of the question. To paraphrase: this one is better than a 50-50 propostion.

Southern Miss over W KENTUCKY by 3No sooner do we sing the praises of Western Kentucky than we throw ‘em under the bus. Let’s face it, an 11-game ATS win run from last year is the main reason the Toppers are favored in this tilt – and that’s a no-no. Why? Because Sun Belt squads are a paltry 19-38 SU versus Conference USA in regular season skirmishes, including 7-11 as favorites (1-6 off a SU win). Huge ‘double-inside’ out game for the still-winless Eagles, losing by 10 as 7-point chalk against East Carolina last week while WKU was topping big brother Kentucky as a TD dog in overtime. In addition, Southern Miss won the stats in its game while Western lost them, making both results more than a little misleading. With Louisville and Boise State up next for the Eagles, it’s time for USM fi rst-year head coach Ellis Johnson to get off the schneid here.

Troy over NORTH TEXAS by 3Both teams elevated the Sun Belt’s reputation with big efforts against nationally-ranked foes last week. North Texas moved the ball well against a stingy Kansas State defense but special teams’ miscues ruined a 15-minute time-of-possession edge for the Mean Green in a 35-21 setback. The Trojans fl irted with a near-monumental upset win over an undefeated SEC foe when they were edged, 30-24, as 16-point dogs at home versus Mississippi State Saturday night (Troy outstatted the Bulldogs, 572-457). UNT is certainly glad to be back in Denton after early season road games at LSU and K-State but the truth is this venue offers no real advantage. Dan McCarney’s crew has dropped its last three home games outright and they’ve managed to cover just two of the previous six conference openers. Troy has the personnel on offense to make this game a true shootout and since the Trojans are packing revenge from a 38-33 home favorite loss to the Texans last year, we’ll cast our vote for the visitors to pull out a close one.

come into play last week as QB Reilly O’Toole (on loan from Dublin) tossed for 333 yards and 5 TD’s in his absence in last week’s 44-0 walkover win versus Charleston Southern. However, today’s opponent is not a warm-up act from the FCS; it’s a Louisiana Tech program that has logged nine straight ATS wins away from Ruston. No reason to doubt a Bulldog offense that’s scored 56 points in each of its fi rst two games but we are concerned with a suddenly sloppy defense that has allowed season-high yardage to lightweights Houston and Rice. Even so, we can’t lay points with an Illinois team that could be eying its Big Ten opener with Penn State on deck – especially when that team has failed to cash in three straight games before its conference lid-lifter. We’ll opt for the more dependable Bulldogs.

ARIZONA ST over Utah by 4Utes staved off THREE last gasp attempts – each with one second remaining – by BYU in the fi nal seconds of last week’s game at Salt Lake City to pull out a 24-21 win. “What can I say,” said Utah coach Kyle Whittingham with considerable comedic fl air. “We should be 4-1 because we won this game three times.” Whittingham knows he has to stay upbeat because QB Jordan Wynn, lost for yet another season with a shoulder injury, decided to close the book on his college football career. That decision puts the ball in the hands of Jon Hays , who was 18 of 27 for 196 yards and 2 TD’s in relief of Wynn against BYU. Before all the drama generated by last Saturday’s ‘Holy War,’ the Sun Devils saw their dreams of a perfect season go to hell in handbag in a 4-point loss at Missouri (late rally couldn’t overcome a 17-point defi cit). That defeat sets up a SMART BOX fade on Arizona State here, a move that seems logical considering the Sun Devils’ tepid 2-12 ATS record as conference favorites of less than 14 points after allowing 24 or more points in their last game. Toss in Whittingham’s respectable 16-11-1 ATS dog log and we won’t look any further. Utes git’r done.

San Jose St over SAN DIEGO ST by 3This year’s edition of the Spartans has the look of an under-the-radar overachiever. Remember the guys that cut USC off at the knees last week? Well, Jose held Stanford to a season-low 280 yards in the season opener and damn near made the Cardinal a casualty in a narrow 20-17 setback. And in case you’re thinking ‘fl uke,’ the Spartans then dropped 45 and 40 points on the scoreboard to win their next two games. SJSU’s offensive outburst comes courtesy of junior QB David Fales, the man who unseated former Michigan starter Tate Forcier. In his fi rst three games, Fales completed 74 of 101 passes for 864 yards and fi ve TD’s (eighth-best completion percentage in the FBS). “I have not coached anyone who has had such a great start to their major collegiate career,” gushed head coach Mike MacIntyre. There’s been no shortage of points scored in San Diego either as the Aztecs have tallied 42 and 49 points the last two weeks, both wins. But Diego hasn’t paid many mortgages in today’s role, going 4-10 SUATS the last 14 times the sun worshippers laid 4 or fewer points. Somewhat surprisingly, San Jose State has cashed in six of its last seven road games and also compiled a 5-2 SU and 6-1 ATS mark against the Mountain West. The fact that SDSU has its conference opener on deck is just icing on the cake. Serve us up a big ol’ piece… Trojan-style.

Air Force over UNLV by 6This play comes straight from our ‘If it ain’t broke, don’t fi x it’ department. UNLV head coach Bobby Hauck continues to use the lure of Vegas to his advantage: he’s a moneymaking 10-2 ATS at Sam Boyd Stadium but get him away from the Strip and he’s a miserable 1-13 ATS. Since the Rebels are home here, we can add one of Marc’s Black Book oldies into the fray (TRIPS TO WIN from the 2003 edition), a system that plays ON conference

home dogs of 3 or more points off back-to-back SU home losses. Though we were initially troubled by the Falcons’ 13-2 ATS history in conference road openers, closer inspection revealed that 10 of those wins came as underdogs and 9 came off a SU win (neither is the case here). With the Force failing to get the money in its last three fl ights to the desert, we must entertain the possibility that even the military falls prey to the seducing lights of Sin City. Rebels, again.

Nevada over HAWAII by 3This game marks the Mountain West debut for both squads (former members of the WAC) but gone are the days of June Jones’ pass-happy Hawaii squads. Norm Chow is the new kahuna and he’s determined to fi eld an offense that can grind out tough yards on the ground when needed. That said, it’s tough to get a read on Chow’s fi rst group of Warriors – they were dismantled by USC in the season opener but rebounded two weeks later to swamp FCS foe Lamar, 54-2. Hawaii’s biggest advantage may simply be location. Much like Vegas works wonders for UNLV, so Honolulu seems to work well for the Warriors. They’ve grabbed the green in six of their last seven home games versus the MWC, plus they’re a solid 12-5 ATS as home dogs off a home game. Meanwhile, series history does NOT favor the Wolf Pack. Nevada is 0-6 SU and 1-5 ATS at Hawaii of late and they’ve dropped fi ve straight ATS decisions in Honolulu. The Wolf Pack has also been guilty of some incredibly undisciplined football, committing 32 penalties for 312 yards in three games, worst in the FBS. Can’t lay double digits on the road with a team that could implode when the game is on the line.

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Thursday, September 20NY Giants over CAROLINA by 6

The champs staved off red-faced embarrassment when they rallied behind 510 passing yards by Super Bowl MVP Eli Manning to even their ledger last week. Meanwhile, DC Steve Spagnuolo’s fi rst-season woes continue as the Giants begin defense of their title: his troops are allowing 29 PPG and 371 PYG (in his fi rst year with the Saints in 2007, Spagnuolo’s stop-unit allowed 40 PPG and 423 YPG in its fi rst two efforts). Cam Newton rebounded from a dismal opening week performance to knock off New Orleans last Sunday and his Panthers take the fi eld looking to notch their fi rst win ever on Thursdays (0-2 SU and ATS) knowing Tom Coughlin is 28-11 SU and 26-11-2 ATS in games against opponents off a SU underdog win. Noting defending Super Bowl champions are 24-7 SU in Game Three of the season, look for the Cats to fall to 10-20-1 ATS at home in their franchise history off a win when facing a .500 or greater foe here tonight as Big Blue keeps it up.

Sunday, September 23CHICAGO over St. Louis by 3

The Kingfi sh, aka Jeff Fisher, has opened the season with a pair of winning dog tickets as he continues to solidify his standing as the best in the NFL when it comes to taking points. Fresh off last week’s upset win over RG3 and the Redskins, the Rams soldier off to Chicago to face the Bears in a battle of .500 squads. Chicago checks in off a lackluster effort last Thursday in which QB Jay Cutler was limited to just 74 yards in the air. Our database notes that favorites of 6 or more points off a Thursday fracas are just 6-12 ATS in regular season games when facing a foe off a win. That fi ts like a kid’s hand in the cookie jar next to the Rams’ 7-0 ATS mark in games off a SU dog win against an opponent off a SUATS loss. Tie it up with the Bears’ 3-6 SU and 0-7-2 ATS record in non-division games off a loss against revenge-seeking opponents, and Cutler’s 3-14 ATS record as a non-division single-digit home favorite (0-7 ATS when off a loss), and we’re ready to go fi shing with the King once again today.

DALLAS over Tampa Bay by 4The fi rst of six SU favorite loss victims on today’s card fi nds the Cowboys relishing a game with the NFC South, given Dallas’ 5-0 SU and ATS all-time mark against the division when playing off a double-digit loss. The buck stops there, though, according to our PLAYBOOK.com database as it notes that 1-1 favorites in home openers in Game Three of the season are a paltry 6-27-1 ATS if they won 12 or fewer game the previous season. Add to that the Cowboys’ 0-9 ATS record at home against .500 or greater opponents during the fi rst four games of the season and you have the makings of a reversal in fortune. Tampa’s 7-0 ATS dog log in games after putting 28 or more points on the scoreboard completes the 180. To heck with our opening statement: our bucks are on the Bucs.

(continued on page 13)

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Louisville over FLORIDA INT’L by 8Huge game for the Panthers as a 1-2 start has the season already in danger of slipping away. FIU head coach Mario Cristobal has offi cially issued an MIA for his highly touted defense, one that is allowing 75 YPG more this season that last (with 10 returning starters). Fortunately for the super Mario brother, he brings an 8-2 ATS record as a home dog into today’s fray, including six straight covers. Louisville blew a seemingly insurmountable 36-7 halftime lead versus North Carolina on Saturady and had to fi ght off a 4th-and-goal play from the Cards’ 4-yard line to seal the 5-point win over the Tar Heels. Now the Redbirds take to the road for the fi rst time in 2012 with revenge on their minds from a 24-17 upset loss at home to the Panthers last year. Unbeaten Louisville owns some spotless stats – 3-0 SU, 2-0 ATS, 3-0 ITS – and has held two foes to season-low yards. But like a lights-out high class call girl, everything looks good except for the price. Turn off the red light… we’re biting one more time with these Cats.

MISSISSIPPI ST over S Alabama by 31Whew, the undefeated Bulldogs were happy to leave Troy alive (blew a 23-7 halftime lead) and now must get up for this fl edgling Sun Belt Conference crew. The Jaguars are off to an inauspicious 1-2 start but the defense has been surprisingly stalwart, ranked 27th in the land while allowing just 300 YPG. The problem, though, is their 115th-ranked scoring offense that averages just 16 PPG and failed to post double-digits in the last two contests. Even so, we can’t lay the big wood with the Starkville Bulldogs when they own a wallet-emptying 1-10 ATS log as favorites of 14 or more points from Game Two out. In all honesty, we’re banking more on MSU’s non-interest in this affair more than anything. Translation: take it if you play it.

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Burned twice by the Niners this season, we take off after them once again this week in a game fully loaded with value and handicap. For openers, Frisco enters 2-0 SU and ATS after knocking off a pair of playoff opponents and looking practically invincible. The Vikings are 0-2 ATS on the season, splitting a pair of 3-point decisions on the scoreboard, despite having outgained both opponents. Minnesota head coach Leslie Frazier is 3-0-1 ATS in games off a SU favorite loss while the Vikes have cashed in 7 of the last 8 as host in this series. Minny’s mighty 15-3 ATS home dog log of more than 3 points against greater than .700 foes fi nds the Niners panning for fool’s gold. Our AWESOME ANGLE on page 2 puts the wraps on this puppy.

MINNESOTA over San Francisco by 3

TENNESSEE over Detroit by 1 Perhaps the most puzzling start of any team in the AFC belongs to the Titans: 0-2 SU and ATS, outgained in both contests by 310 total yards. So why is it, you wonder, are we making their case today? For openers, Game Three NFL teams off back-to-back double-digit ATS losses are an eye-opening 16-6 SU and 17-5 ATS when facing a foe off a loss. In addition,

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All results Monitored and Documented by Sports Monitor in Oklahoma and Sports Watch in Las Vegas.

• No. 1 NFL Win Percentage: 30-17 (63.8%)• No. 1 Wise Guys Contest Champion: 26-10 (72.2%)• No. 1 Wise Guys Contest Best Bet Co-Champion: 14-4 (77.7%)

2008 Football Season

• No. 1 Wise Guys Contest Best Bet Champion: 14-4 (77.7%)


• No. 1 NFL Win Percentage: 30-17 (63.8%)


• No. 1 College Football Win Percentage: 38-18 (67.9%)• No. 1 Stardust Football Invitation Contest Champion• No. 1 Handicapper of the Year – Football News

2005 Football Season• No. 1 NFL Handicapper in Money Won at VEGASINSIDER.COM• Overall College & NFL Results: 69-52 (57.0%)• College Bowls & NFL Playoffs: 13-4 (76.5%)


• NFL Win Percentage: 25-16-1 (61%)2010 Football Season

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It’s Superman III versus Supersoph when Robert Griffi n opposes Andy Dalton in the nation’s capitol today. Griffi n found life as a favorite in this league a bit hard to swallow – and his team’s defense lacking – when the Skins fell, 31-28, in St. Louis last week while the Bengals outlasted the Browns in a 34-27 victory in the Queen City. And speaking of favorites, the Hogs dress up in the same role today sporting an 0-7-1 ATS record as home chalk in non-conference games. On the fl ip side, the Bengals are 7-1 ATS as road dogs off a win in the fi rst four games of the season. The cement pours from our powerful database (the same angle that applied in the Cowboys game) noting that 1-1 favorites in home openers in Game Three of the season are a just 6-27-1 ATS if they won 12 or fewer game the previous season, including a mind-boggling 2-19-1 ATS when taking on a foe that won 9 or less games last year. With Washington’s defense missing two key starters, like a speeding bullet, we’re off to the betting window.

Cincinnati over WASHINGTON by 10

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A winless start for the fi rst time since 2007 leaves the Saints in an 0-2 hole, to which interim coach II Aaron Kromer said, “They’re hurt, they’re down, but they are not out. No one is quitting.” Since the playoffs were expanded in 1990, 88% of the 0-2 teams have missed the playoffs, none in the past three seasons. Don’t blame Drew Brees. He has tossed for 300 or more yards in nine consecutive games (an NFL record) and has also thrown a TD pass in 45 consecutive games. The fault to the slow start likely ties in with the aftereffects of the ‘Bounty Gate’ scandal. That ends here today as 0-2 starters off back-to-back losses as favorites are 7-0 SU and ATS since 1980 in Game Three if they won 11 or more games last season and did not lose to the spread by 15 or more points in their last game. Worried about laying wood with an 0-2 starter? Don’t be as they are 21-7 ATS as favorites of more than 5 points when hosting a foe off a loss in Game Three. On the fl ip side, two losses generally lead to three for the Chiefs who are 1-7 SU and ATS away in games off two losses-exact when not grabbing double digits. It may be later than usual but they fi gure to be partying hearty on Bourbon Street tonight.

NEW ORLEANS over Kansas City by 20

Tennessee brings a 7-0 ATS record into this contest as a non-conference dog of 5 or less points when playing off a loss and an 8-1 ATS mark at home during the fi rst four games of the campaign when seeking revenge against a non-division opponent. On the fl ip side, the Lions are just 1-5 ATS as road chalk off a SU and ATS loss, and 1-8 ATS under Jim Schwartz in games against foes off a pair of losses. Too many good numbers to scoff at with this hungry home dog.

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NY Jets over MIAMI by 6Nothing like a home opener: the heat and humidity and a West Coast foe playing an early East Coast game to kick-start a new era. New head coach Joe Philbin and QB Ryan Tannehill took advantage of all three gifts en route to a dominating performance over the Raiders last Sunday. Today they take on their hated rivals from New York with a litany of bad history staring them down. It all starts here, where the Dolphins are 3-13 ATS as a series host when playing off a win. Meanwhile, Rex Ryan brings a sterling 6-1 ATS career mark as a favorite in games against opponents off an underdog win into the fray, while the Jets themselves are 5-0 ATS away during the regular season in division duke-outs against foes off a SU dog win. Miami’s 1-9 ATS record in games off a win versus an opponent off a double-digit loss during the fi rst four games of the season clinches it. Sorry Fish fans, no matter how new they appear, when it comes to this series it’s the same old, same old.

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CLEVELAND over Buffalo by 3 Two Lake Erie resort cities meet on the banks in Cleveland for an afternoon of football and walleye. The Browns will look to enter the win column for the fi rst time in 2012 behind their new regime looking to end a 1-11 slide of late, while the Bills try to win back-to-back contests for only the 5th time in 20 tries. No matter how you look at it there is not a lot of sunshine in this picture, for sure. Browns fans take pride in the fact their team is 11-2 ATS as dogs in games off back-to-back defeats, including 4-0 ATS under Pat

Shurmer. They are also 6-1 SU and ATS when hosting teams from the AFC East the last seven seasons. Chan Gailey’s gaudy 0-12 SU and 0-11-1 ATS career mark in non-division road games in which his teams sport a .500 or greater record is sinful. We’ll cast a line in the waters and look to reel in an unsuspecting fi sh in the Bills.

Jacksonville over INDIANAPOLIS by 1At last there appears to be some good Luck in Indianapolis. And without getting caught up in favoritism, Andrew appears to have taken a quantum leap past Blaine Gabbert in sizing up these fi rst-round franchise quarterbacks. That’s quickly confi rmed by the Jaguars’ 117 yards, a franchise-worst, in last week’s 20-point home loss to Houston in which Gabbert was 7 or 19 for 53 yards. Meanwhile, as Luck would have it, Andrew led the Colts to a last-second 3-point win at home against Minnesota. As a result, Indy fi nds itself laying points for the fi rst time in Luck’s young career, a role in which fellow rookies Russell Wilson and Robert Griffi n III have not been able to handle. And neither have the Colts for that matter as they enter today’s game sporting a 1-6 ATS mark in their last seven tries as home chalk. Indy’s disastrous 2-11 SU and 0-13 ATS record in games against .400 or less opposition screams for mercy. The Jags’ 5-2 SU and 6-0-1 ATS all-time mark in division games after failing to score more than 7 points in their last game signals the end of Indy’s one-game win streak. Colts’ Luck runs out today.

Philadelphia over ARIZONA by 4 Our prized MIDWEEK ALERT football newsletter debuts for the 2012 season this week and initially we were primed to post the Eagles as a recommended play. That is until we came across this Ugly Stat of the Week: The last NFL team to win back-to-back games by 1-point apiece was the 2001 NY Jets. Five teams have accomplished the same feat since 1989. All fi ve lost their next game straight up, going 1-4 ATS, scoring an average 12.6 PPG (none hit the 20-point plateau). Yikes! Add a heavy dose of revenge from a 21-17 home loss last year in which Philadelphia was installed as 13.5-point favorites and you can understand our desire for wanting to fl y with the Eagles this week. After all, they own the No. 1 ranked offense and No. 5 ranked defense in the league. However, with two starters missing from the offensive line, and Michael Vick a certifi ed turnover-machine, we are forced to bag the play. Yes, we know of Philly’s 7-0 ATS road record when seeking revenge against an NFC opponent. And we realize the Cardinals were outgained over 100 yards in their stunning win over the Patriots last week. But it’s hard to look past ugly. In a revolting development, we’re passing on the Eagles.

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Monday, September 24Green Bay over SEATTLE by 6

Stirring wins by both sides last week, the Packers in a 23-10 division win Thursday night over Chicago and the Seahawks with a 27-7 surprise here on Sunday over Dallas, sets the table for tonight’s contest. Green Bay has fared well on the NFC West road of late, going 19-7-1 ATS – including 9-3 SU and ATS as road chalk. More important, the Pack has been perfect, 7-0 SU and ATS, on Monday nights when playing with rest (either off a Bye or after a Thursday game). The Seahawks also enjoy performing under the Monday Night lights, going 16-8 SU and 16-7-1 ATS since 1980, including 5-0 SU and ATS the last fi ve. However, it’s been rainy in Seattle for backers when they’ve been non-division dogs off a SU underdog win as its 1-8 ATS record would attest. The bottom line is as much as we like Russell Wilson, he’s light years away from where Aaron Rodgers is today. Behind an edgy and improving defense, the Pack is the play tonight.

The fi rst issue of the 2012 PLAYBOOK MIDWEEK ALERT kicks off this week, featuring powerful Head-to-Head Stats exclusive to the MIDWEEK ALERT. ALL NEW THIS YEAR: Team Re-Scores. See how each team is re-scored according to their production on the fi eld in the stats! Along with on-the-money Best Bets, it’s hands-down the most powerful handicapping edge you’ll fi nd anywhere. Download your copy every Wednesday after 6:00 PM online at www.PLAYBOOK.com.

SAN DIEGO over Atlanta by 6 A pair of high-fl yers meet in sunny San Diego Sunday afternoon where the 2-0 Chargers host the 2-0 Falcons at Qualcomm Stadium. This just in… our QUIRKY STAT OF THE WEEK: Since 1980, 2-0 NFL teams off a Monday Night win are 8-1 SU and 7-1-1 ATS when facing a fellow 2-0 opponent in Game Three of the season. Unfortunately, we’re not into quirky. Kinky maybe, but not quirky. We’re more into coaches who fi nd themselves in situations in which they’ve not won before, namely Atlanta’s Mike Smith as a dog in games off back-to-back wins (0-7 SU and ATS in his career). Or teams in never-lost situations against foes from various divisions (Chargers 4-0 ATS off a win when facing the NFC South). Granted, we’re aware of Norv Turner’s 6-16 SU and 7-14-1 ATS career log in games against unbeaten foes but his troops appear to have a new look about them this season. They are also 11-1 SU and 10-2 ATS on this fi eld in games off back-to-back wins. Screw the quirk.

DENVER over Houston by 7 Could it be? Two Hall of Fame quarterbacks, both playing as dogs off losses, on the same weekend. Watch the line movement on this contest (pick at press time). Should the betting public become fully enamored with the Texans and drive Houston to the favorite, both Peyton Manning and Tom Brady will fi t the bill in our opening statement. If enough bad Broncos stats start surfacing (i.e. - 0-5 ATS after Monday nights, 0-4 SU and ATS last four game before the Raiders) and enough good Houston numbers get bandied about (i.e. - 7-0 ATS after the Jaguars), it could happen. Instead, we’ll sink our teeth into some pretty Peyton numbers, such as: 11-2 ATS as a dog of less than 6 points versus a non-division foe off a SU and ATS win; 12-3 SU and ATS the last 15 home versus a foe off back-to-back SU and ATS wins. The Houston defense has really ratcheted up in 2012 (tops in the league, allowing 196 YPG) but it’s been against offenses the likes of Jacksonville and Miami. We like the Hall of Famer’s bounce-back ability today.

Pittsburgh over OAKLAND by 3When it comes to successfully handicapping the NFL, it’s all about roles, statistics and value. And role changing is what the Raiders will be doing today, switching from losing road chalk to home dogs against the Steelers. Oakland’s 6-0 ATS mark as home pups off a SU and ATS loss is noteworthy. As is its 2-0 SU and ATS record in this series when taking points at home. On the fl ip side, the Steelers enter off last week’s 27-10 downing of the Jets with an 0-8 ATS log in games off a double-digit ATS win, and an 0-4 ATS

mark in games after surrendering 10 or less points in its last game. Until Pittsburgh takes the wraps of its offense, and laying as many points here today as they did at home against the Flyboys last week, we’ll grab the value in this foray today.

BALTIMORE over New England by 1 There is no doubt in anyone’s mind the Ravens have had this baby circled ever since last year’s unsettling 23-20 loss to the Patriots in the AFC title game last year. And while we’re normally fi rst in line supporting revenge of that magnitude, there is a matter of how the rematch sets up. For openers, the Pats take the fi eld off a dramatic last second loss to the Cardinals in Foxboro last week, a game in which New England dominated in the stats (387-245). Secondly, giving points to Tom Brady is like being a Democrat and voting for Romney – you just don’t do it, regardless of the conditions. That’s because Giselle’s husband is 27-11-1 ATS as a dog in his NFL career, including a mind-blowing 11-1 SU and ATS when taking points off a loss. Then there’s New England’s 11-1 ATS mark in non-division games against avenging foes during the fi rst four games of the season, and their 8-0 SU and 7-1 ATS log in games off its initial loss of the season since 2003. Yes, the Black Birds are sterling this time of the year… 14-2 ATS as single-digit home chalk throughout the fi rst four games of the campaign, and they’ve got this major itch to even things up. But when push comes to shove, our electoral vote goes to New England. Ravens win and we take down the loot. What a country.

MIDWEEK ALERT Newsletter Kick-Off Issue This Week!


GAME MATCHUPS KEY OVER/UNDER STATS

N AT I O N A L F O O T B A L L L E A G U E – W E E K T H R E E

This week’s fi rst 8 games of the NFL schedule are listed below. As always, the number listed fi rst is the ‘OVER’ and the number listed second is the ‘UNDER’. This week’s 3 O/U BEST BETS will appear in the 2012 "TOTALS" TIPSHEET” by Victor King – the defi nitive weekly OU newsletter. A single issue is only $8.00 and the full-season subscription is $86.00 Sent via email Tuesday evenings each week. Call the PLAYBOOK offi ces at 800-643-4700 to get on the 2012 "Totals Train"! …*This week’s TREND play: Lions @ Titans ’OVER’ the TOTAL.

AN 'OVER / UNDER' REPORT ON THIS WEEK'S NFL CARDBY VICTOR KING

THE 2-MINUTE HANDICAP: O/U STYLE

NY GiantsCAROLINA

St. LouisCHICAGO

Tampa Bay DALLAS

San FranciscoMINNESOTA

Detroit TENNESSEE

CincinnatiWASHINGTON

NY Jets MIAMI

Kansas CityNEW ORLEANS

6-0 O/U L8 vs Car (51.0 total PPG)... 4-1 O/U bef Phil... but 0-6 O/U Thursdays... 0-3 O/U Gm 3... 0-3-1 O/U aft TB5-2 O/U bef Atl... 7-3 O/U vs NFC East... but 0-4 O/U Gm 3... 1-7 O/U in 2nd of BB HG’s... 3-8 O/U off div dog win 4-0 O/U Gm 3... 12-2 O/U vs opp off Thur... but 1-7 O/U off home dog win... 2-6 O/U L8 vs Chic (38.4)... 3-7 O/U bef Seat4-1 O/U non-div favs 6 >... 7-2 O/U bef Mon gm... 11-3 O/U vs NFC West... but 1-5 O/U bef Dal... 1-5 O/U off Thur gm

6-1 O/U Gm 3 away... 4-1 O/U aft allow 40+... 6-2 O/U non div dogs 6 >... 6-2 O/U bef Wash... but 3-8 O/U vs opp off SU fav L3-0 O/U bef Mon gm... 3-1 O/U bef Chic... but 0-4 O/U Gm 3... 1-4 O/U off SU road L 20 > pts... 2-6-1 O/U L9 vs TB (32.3)

5-1 O/U bef NYJ... 8-2 O/U non div RF’s 3 > pts... 5-2 O/U Gm 3... but 0-4-1 O/U aft Det... 0-4 O/U in 1st of BB RG’s5-0 O/U dogs vs NFC West... 6-1 O/U vs undef opp (Gm 3 >)... 7-2 O/U bef Det... 3-1-1 O/U aft Ind... but 1-3 O/U vs SF (34.8)

7-0 O/U in 2nd of BB RG’s... 6-1 O/U bef Minn... 18-3 O/U L21 vs AFC... 5-1 O/U as non div RF’s... 9-2 O/U bef div HG 5-0 O/U dogs aft score 10 < pts... 9-2 O/U as non div HD’s... 4-1 O/U bef Hou... 7-2 O/U aft SD... 4-1-1 O/U H bef BB RG’s

3-0 O/U vs non div of BB div gms... 5-1 O/U non div dogs 5 < pts... 7-2 O/U away vs NFC East... but 1-3 O/U vs Wash (39.5)0-8 O/U vs AFC North... 0-4 O/U aft Stl... 1-4 O/U Gm 3... 2-8 O/U home off BB RG’s... 2-7 O/U as non div HF’s 5 < pts

8-0 O/U in 2nd of BB RG’s... 7-0 O/U Gm 3... 12-2 O/U aft Pit... but 0-3 O/U L3 vs Mia (27.3)... 1-6 O/U bef San Fran 7-2 O/U vs div revenge... 3-1 O/U as div HD’s... but 1-6 O/U at score 35+ pts... 1-4 O/U in 2nd of BB HG’s... 1-3 O/U aft Oak)

6-1 O/U aft Buf... 6-2 O/U Gm 3 away... but 0-5 O/U off SU road L 17 > pts... 0-2 O/U vs NOrl... 3-9 O/U dogs in 2nd of BB RG’s 9-1-1 O/U aft Car... 7-2 O/U non div HF’s 7 > pts... 3-1 O/U Gm 3... but 1-8 O/U bef GB... 1-4 O/U home off BB SU L

Due to technical diffi culties, this week’s Wise Guys Report was unavailable at press time. Playbook subscribers: you can download the complete Wise Guys report, featuring 1* and 2* selections from all contestants, for FREE this week. Simply go to your download page in the Member Center and click on the Wise Guys Contest link after 6:00 PM ET Wednesday. Our apologies – PLAYBOOK

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ADDED GAMES

FRIDAY, SEPTEMBER 21

BAYLOR 8:00 PM LA-MONROE ESPN

307 308

8 6

THURSDAY, SEPTEMBER 20

NY GIANTS8:20 PM - NFL CAROLINA NFL

BYU9:00 PM BOISE ST ESPN

303 304

305 306

1 6

7 4

WEDNESDAY, SEPTEMBER 19

KENT ST 7:00 PM BUFFALO ESPNU

301 302 3

1

page 16 • www.PLAYBOOK.com • 1.800.PLAYBOOK

SUNDAY, SEPTEMBER 23

GREEN BAY8:35 PM SEATTLE ESPN

225 226

3’ 6

MONDAY, SEPTEMBER 24

ST. LOUIS1:00 PM CHICAGO

TAMPA BAY1:00 PM DALLAS

SAN FRANCISCO1:00 PM MINNESOTA

DETROIT1:00 PM TENNESSEE

CINCINNATI1:00 PM WASHINGTON

NY JETS1:00 PM MIAMI

KANSAS CITY1:00 PM NEW ORLEANS

BUFFALO1:00 PM CLEVELAND

JACKSONVILLE1:00 PM INDIANAPOLIS

PHILADELPHIA4:05 PM ARIZONA

ATLANTA4:05 PM SAN DIEGO

HOUSTON4:15 PM DENVER

PITTSBURGH4:15 PM OAKLAND

NEW ENGLAND8:25 PMBALTIMORE NBC

401 402

403 404

405 406

407 408

409 410

411 412

413 414

415 416

417 418

419 420

421 422

423 424

425 426

427 428

ARMY 12:30 PM TIME CHANGE WAKE FOREST

CLEMSON8:00 PM TIME CHANGE FLORIDA ST ABC

USF4:30 PM TIME CHANGE BALL ST

MEMPHIS6:00 PM TIME CHANGE DUKE

E MICHIGAN BIG103:30 PM TIME CHANGE MICHIGAN ST

BOWLING GREEN12:00 PM VA TECH ESPNU

C MICHIGAN12:00 PM IOWA BIG10

UAB12:00 PM OHIO ST BIG10

EAST CAROLINA3:30 PM TIME CHANGE N CAROLINA ESPNU

TEMPLE ABC3:30 PM TIME CHANGE PENN ST ESPN2

MARYLAND12:00 PM WEST VIRGINIA FX

309 310

311 312

313 314

315 316

317 318

319 320

321 322

323 324

325 326

327 328

329 330

2012 COLLEGE & PRO FOOTBALL - SEPTEMBER 19-24

All times listed are Eastern Standard Time • Games in Offi cial International Rotation sequence • Dates & times subject to change

Listed next to the games below are two entries: OL is the opening line on the contest and PB is the PLAYBOOK margin on the game. You have a PLAYBOOK BEST BET whenever our predicted margin of victory is 7 or more points in favor of your line. Remember, opening lines

are subject to change during the week so always check YOUR CURRENT LINE against the PLAYBOOK line to determine a play.

OL PB331 332

333 334

335 336

337 338

339 340

341 342

343 344

345 346

347 348

349 350

351 352

353 354

355 356

357 358

359 360

361 362

363 364

365 366

367 368

OL PBMICHIGAN7:30 PM NOTRE DAME NBC

SYRACUSE8:00 PM MINNESOTA BIG10

KANSAS ST 7:50 PM TIME CHANGE OKLAHOMA FOX

NEW MEXICO8:00 PM NEW MEXICO ST

AKRON 7:30 PM TIME CHANGE TENNESSEE

MISSISSIPPI12:00 PM TIME CHANGE TULANE

LOUISIANA TECH8:00 PM ILLINOIS BIG10

UTAH 10:00 PM ARIZONA ST PAC-12

SAN JOSE ST8:00 PM TIME CHANGE SAN DIEGO ST

AIR FORCE 10:00 PM UNLV

NEVADA 10:30 PM HAWAII NBCS

369 370

371 372

373 374

375 376

377 378

379 380

381 382

383 384

385 386

387 388

389 390

OL PB OL PB

16

26’

13’

14

2

6

3

9’

24

11’

16’

16

6’

2

13’

12’

NL

7

7

7

3

3’

9

3

3’

5

1

UTEP 12:00 PM WISCONSIN ESPN2

UMASS12:00 PM MIAMI OHIO

VANDERBILT7:45 PM GEORGIA ESPN2

UTAH ST7:00 PM TIME CHANGE COLORADO ST

RUTGERS 7:00 PM ARKANSAS ESPNU

FRESNO ST8:00 PM TIME CHANGE TULSA CBSC

MARSHALL3:30 PM TIME CHANGE RICE

KANSAS3:30 PM TIME CHANGE NO ILLINOIS

ARIZONA10:30 PM TIME CHANGE OREGON ESPN

OREGON ST ABC3:30 PM UCLA ESPN2

VIRGINIA12:00 PM TIME CHANGE TCU ESPN

CALIFORNIA6:00 PM TIME CHANGE USC PAC-12

COLORADO FX4:00 PM TIME CHANGE WASHINGTON ST

LSU7:00 PM TIME CHANGE AUBURN ESPN

MIAMI FLA3:00 PM TIME CHANGE GEORGIA TECH

WYOMING5:00 PM IDAHO

KENTUCKY12:21 PM TIME CHANGEFLORIDA SEC

CONNECTICUT2:00 PM TIME CHANGE W MICHIGAN

MISSOURI3:30 PM TIME CHANGE S CAROLINA CBS

SATURDAY, SEPTEMBER 22

3

3’

3

3

4

3

1

10

6

20

3

1

4

6

7

3

1

13 27

11 13

21 20

32’ 28

18 13

17 17

37’ 39

14’ 17

17

27

20

15

6

3

7

7

27

1

17

17’

17’

13’

NL

25

11

14

14

17

5

18

4

6

16

3

30

4

12

2’

Pk

6

3

3

�

�

�

�

�

9 3

�

FLA ATLANTIC5:00 PM TIME CHANGE ALABAMA

SOUTHERN MISS7:00 PM W KENTUCKY

TROY7:00 PM NORTH TEXAS

LOUISVILLE7:00 PM FLORIDA INT’L

SOUTH ALABAMA7:00 PM MISSISSIPPI ST

9 19

1 6

12’

34’

8

31

3

3

A REVIEW OF THE CURRENT STAR-RATED BEST BET SELECTIONSTHIS WEEK'S BEST BETS

51 48

FOR WEEK ENDING MONDAY,SEPTEMBER 24, 2012 4� BEST BET3� BEST BET 5� BEST BET

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Number, please call 1.800.752.9266.28 24

7 1

10 7

NL

5

NL 17

391 392

393 394

395 396

397 398

399 400

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