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College: A Necessity Priced as a Luxury
Six Facts on College and the Middle Class
May 2014
A Middle Class Job Does Not Get a Middle Class Life
v Today, a middle class job increasingly does not support a middle class life.
v One of the big tickets for the middle class is a college degree, but its cost has risen beyond the means of middle class families, with consequences for the workforce and broader economy.
v Six facts are central to this alarming trend.
1. Tuition Has Outpaced Inflation for 32 Straight Years
v Tuition has more than tripled: Average tuition and fees at a four-year public college rose from $2,100 in 1979 to $7,300, in 2010 dollars.
v Tuition up more than health care: Of the four “big ticket” middle class expenses (tuition, health care, housing, and retirement), tuition has risen the fastest in the last three decades.
v Tuition outpaced inflation for 32 straight years: No major consumer expenditure, including health care, can make that claim.
1. Tuition Has Outpaced Inflation for 32 Straight Years
Source: National Center for Education Statistics, Average Tuition and Required Fees in Current Dollars for 4 Year Public Undergraduate Institutions; U.S. Census Bureau, Median Sales Prices of New Homes Sold in the United States; Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services, Personal Health Care Expenditure per Capita; U.S. Census Bureau, U.S. Median Income; U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers Annual Average.
Tuition: 1020%
Health care: 818%
Housing: 290%
Income: 210% Inflation: 216%
0%
200%
400%
600%
800%
1000%
1200%
1979 1982 1985 1988 1991 1994 1997 2000 2003 2006 2009 2012
Gro
wth
Sin
ce 1
979
2. College Has Become More Important for the Middle Class
v Only college-educated workers have had wage gains: Workers with a four-year degree or better earn 16% more, in real dollars, than in 1979.
v Non-college wages have fallen: Those at every education level below a college degree have seen declines in real wages.
v The gap between college and non-college wages has widened: A worker with a high school diploma earned as much in 1979 as a worker with an associate’s degree today.
Less than High School
High School
Some College or Associate’s Degree
Bachelor's Degree and Higher
$400
$500
$600
$700
$800
$900
$1,000
$1,100
$1,200
1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011
Median Weekly Earnings by Educational Attainment
2. College Has Become More Important for the Middle Class
Note: Median usual weekly earnings of full-time wage and salary workers 25 years and older, in 2011 dollars, by sex and educational attainment, annual averages. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Highlights of Women’s Earnings in 2011, October 2012.
$1,150
$739
$638
$451
3. Rising Costs Are Hurting Low and Middle-Income Students.
Counting student aid:
v Low-income families, earning less than $30,000, now pay 22% more, after inflation, than they did in 1999-2000 for a four-year public college degree.
v Middle-income families, earning $30,000 to $65,000, now pay 21% more, after inflation, than they did in 1999-2000 for a four-year public college degree.
v Upper middle-income families, earning $65,000 to $106,000, now pay 31% more, after inflation, than they did in 1999-2000 for a four-year public college degree.
3. Rising Costs Are Hurting Low and Middle-Income Students.
22% 21%
31% 34%
Less than $30,000 $30,000 - $64,999 $65,000 - $105,999 $106,000 or higher
Family Income
Change in Net Cost of Attendance at 4-year Public Colleges
Percentage increase from 1999 to 2011 in real, 2011 dollars
Source: NCES, National Postsecondary Student Aid Study, 1996, 2000, 2004, 2008, and 2012; The College Board, Trends in College Pricing, 2008 and 2012, Figure 1; calculations by the authors.
4. Student Loan Debt Has Exploded
v Student loan debt has quadrupled: Since 2003, student loan debt has risen from $250 billion to $1 trillion.
v Nearly 40 million borrowers: Since 2005, the number of student borrowers has risen from 23 million to 39 million.
v Loan balances ballooning: Since 2005, the average student loan balance has risen from $16,651 to $24,803.
v Pell students borrow more: Nearly 90% of Pell Grant recipients who graduate have loans. They owe $4,750 more, on average, than those of higher income students.
Source: The Institute for College Access and Students, “Pell Grants Help Keep College Affordable for Millions of Americans,” April 29, 2014.
4. Student Loan Debt Has Exploded
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
1.2
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Trill
ions
Total Debt Held by Borrowers
Student Loan
Auto Loan
Credit Card
Source: Federal Reserve Bank of New York, “Quarterly Report on Household Debt and Credit,” August 2013.
5. College Completion Rates Are Dismal
Source: OECD Indicators 2012, Education at a Glance, Country Note, United States,
v Young Americans on wrong side of college wage gap: Two thirds of 30-year olds do not have a college degree.
v Young men in most trouble: Men’s college completion rates have stagnated over the past decade and are barely higher than in 1980.
v U.S. falling behind in college: Among OECD countries, the U.S. ranks 3rd in college degree attainment for 55-64 year olds, but is 14th for 25-34 year olds.
Note: Includes only non-institutionalized individuals, ages 25-29. Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Current Population Survey.
Men: 30%
Women: 37%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008 2012
Share of 25-29 Year Olds with a College Degree
5. College Completion Rates Are Dismal
6. Loan Debt Has Broad Economic Consequences
v Young adults behind in housing: Student loan debt is a key reason why homeownership rates for 30 to 34-year olds are at a 30-year low.
v Young adults behind in wealth creation: The median household wealth of people ages 55-64 is 44 times the net worth of the median household of people younger than 35—blowing past historic highs.
Source: "The Subprime Generation", John Burns Real Estate Consulting.
57%
54%
51%
53%
55% 54%
48%
1948-1952 1953-1957 1958-1962 1963-1967 1968-1972 1973-1977 1978-1982
Homeownership Rate at Age 30-34 by Birth Year
6. Loan Debt Has Broad Economic Consequences
Note: For purposes of this graph, Boomer households are those headed by 55-64 year-olds and Millennial households are those headed by persons under 35. Source: “Failure to Launch,” Anthony Carnevale, Georgetown University Center on Education and the Workforce, Analysis of data from the Pew Research Center, 1984-2009
6. Loan Debt Has Broad Economic Consequences
13 13 15 16
12 16 15
24 24
44
1984 1988 1991 1993 1995 1998 2000 2002 2004 2009
Ratio of Households’ Net Wealth: Boomers to Millennials
A typical Baby Boomer-headed household has 44 times the net wealth of a typical Millennial-headed household
