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COLAC RESIDENTIAL HOUSING LAND SUPPLY ASSESSMENT COLAC OTWAY SHIRE MAY 2016 Rod Bright & Associates Pty Ltd Land Development Services 26 Murray St Colac 3250 Ph (03) 5231 4883 Mob 0415 635 420 [email protected]

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Page 1: COLAC RESIDENTIAL HOUSING LAND SUPPLY ASSESSMENT · be an existing zoned residential lot capacity of 25 years (p8). The project report also indicates: Of the 1136 capacity, 139 of

COLAC RESIDENTIAL HOUSING LAND SUPPLY ASSESSMENT COLAC OTWAY SHIRE MAY 2016

Rod Bright & Associates Pty Ltd

Land Development Services

26 Murray St Colac 3250

Ph (03) 5231 4883 Mob 0415 635 420

[email protected]

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COLAC HOUSING LAND SUPPLY ASSESSMENT FINAL REPORT ROD BRIGHT & ASSOCIATES PTY. LTD. Page 1

CONTENTS

1. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY ....................................................................................................................... 2

2. INTRODUCTION .................................................................................................................................. 3

2.1 SCOPE .............................................................................................................................................. 3

2.2 COLAC 2050...................................................................................................................................... 4

3. BACKGROUND .................................................................................................................................... 5

3.1 G21 REGIONAL GROWTH PLAN ....................................................................................................... 5

3.2 PLANNING POLICY CONTEXT.......................................................................................................... 5

3.3 PREVIOUS LAND SUPPLY ESTIMATES ............................................................................................ 5

3.4 BUILDING APPROVALS & TRENDS .................................................................................................. 7

3.5 RESIDENTIAL ZONES & SUBDIVISION ............................................................................................. 8

4. METHODOLOGY & ASSUMPTIONS.................................................................................................. 10

4.1 RESIDENTIAL LAND SUPPLY TYPES ............................................................................................... 11

4.2 RESIDENTIAL LAND DEVELOPMENT TIMING ............................................................................... 12

4.3 PROJECTED DEMAND .................................................................................................................... 12

4.4 CONSTRAINTS to SUBDIVISION AND DEVELOPMENT .................................................................. 13

5. HOUSING LAND ASSESSMENT ........................................................................................................ 14

5.1 BROADHECTARE SITES ................................................................................................................. 14

5.2 INFILL SITES ................................................................................................................................... 24

5.3 INTENSIFICATION ........................................................................................................................... 33

6. FINDINGS SUMMARY ....................................................................................................................... 35

6.1 GENERAL RESIDENTIAL ZONE ...................................................................................................... 35

6.2 RLZ & LDRZ .................................................................................................................................... 36

6.3 INTENSIFICATION ........................................................................................................................... 37

7. SUPPLY & PROJECTED DEMAND ..................................................................................................... 38

8. APPENDICES ..................................................................................................................................... 39

8.1 LAND ASSESSMENT REFERENCE AREA MAPS .............................................................................. 39

8.2 BARWON WATER SEWER DISTRICT MAP ....................................................................................... 40

8.3 CURRENT LSIO COLAC/ELLIMINYT ................................................................................................ 41

8.4 UPDATED INUNDATION EXTENT BARONGAROOK & DEANS CREEK CATCHMENTS ................... 42

8.5 LAND SUPPLY TABLES ................................................................................................................... 43

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1. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Excluding areas of existing development, Colac and Elliminyt contains 740.65 hectares of potential housing

supply land. Of this land, 164.4 hectares is zoned General Residential 1, of which 128.2 hectares or 77.9% is

constrained from subdivision and development by one or more factors. Low Density Residential or Rural

Living zoned land combined comprises 576 hectares, of which 57.5 hectares (9.9%) is unconstrained

greenfield land, with the balance constrained from subdivision and development by one or more factors, or

relying on infill subdivision for land supply.

This land supply assessment has identified four major constraints to residential subdivision:

1) Extensive areas subject to inundation;

2) Extent of current sewer district;

3) Availability and viability of storm-water infrastructure and limitations caused by flat land gradients

which also impacts provision of sewer infrastructure; and

4) Historic ad-hoc development patterns necessitating strategic planning direction to achieve successful

subdivision design outcomes.

Key findings of the report include:

Unconstrained lot supply opportunities in the GRZ1 are likely to respond to current demand in the

short term (approximately 2 years to 2018).

In the medium term (from 3-10 years (to 2026)) there is likely to be 413 lots (GRZ1) available for

housing (averaging 51.6 lots per annum over 8 years). Housing demand may exceed supply during

this period based on current supply conditions. Housing demand is likely to exceed land supply

during this period if the higher Colac 2050 growth target of 86 dwellings per year is achieved.

Land supply for housing beyond 2026 is currently uncertain. Supply within current residential zones

will require resolution of major constraints as noted above.

Even if the above major constraints are resolved, based on the higher growth target, from 2026-

2050 there will be a shortage of supply of 903 lots, requiring additional 75 ha of land supply at a lot

yield rate of 12/hectare, or 60ha at 15/ha. If the above constraints are not resolved, additional land

will be required.

Excluding the Belverdere Drive Estate, land supply in the LDRZ and RLZ relies solely on small-lot

infill subdivision or sale of vacant lots by individual landholders.

Opportunities to resolve constraints and increase lot supply to cater for current growth trends and

aspirational Colac 2050 growth targets are discussed further within the report.

Report Author: Katy Bright

V1 First draft 29 May 2016

V2 Amended draft 02 June 2016

Final 08 June 2016

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2. INTRODUCTION 2.1 SCOPE

Colac Otway Shire has engaged Rod Bright & Associates Pty Ltd to prepare a housing supply land

assessment to ascertain the potential lot and associated dwelling yield for Colac (including Elliminyt) under

current conditions in the context of residential land use zones and identification of constraints.

The assessment will provide support for a Housing Needs Assessment, currently being undertaken by Colac

Otway Shire (Southern Cross Town Planning Pty Ltd), to form an accurate picture of projected demand for

housing as part of the wider Colac 2050 Project.

The study reviews subdivision and lot yield with associated dwelling potential within the General Residential

1 Zone, Low Density Residential Zone and Rural Living Zones.

Figure 1: Extracted map of land use zones, Colac & Elliminyt, Colac Otway Planning Scheme http://services.land.vic.gov.au/maps/pmo.jsp

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2.2 COLAC 2050

Colac 2050 is a long range planning project by Colac Otway Shire supported by state government and the

Geelong (G12) Region Alliance as part of their Geelong G21 Regional Growth Plan, to encourage industry,

employment and housing creation to facilitate an aspirational increase in population to 20,000 people in the

city of Colac over the next 3-4 decades.

Drivers for population growth include the Princes Highway duplication, which, combined with improved rail

services will facilitate more viable commuting. With improved access to existing available services, capacity

to increase commercial and industrial expansion, and Colac’s existing location as a gateway to the Otways

and Great Ocean Road, residential demand is expected, and will be encouraged, to increase.

This housing land supply assessment provides background data for Colac Otway Shire to appropriately plan

to ensure available land supply caters for projected housing needs over the forecast period.

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3. BACKGROUND 3.1 G21 REGIONAL GROWTH PLAN

The G21 Regional Growth Plan (April 2013) provides an umbrella strategic plan for Geelong and surrounding

member municipalities, to which the Colac 2050 project forms a localised supporting component. The plan

anticipates and plans for significant growth in the wider region, setting out infrastructure and

implementation strategies to provide capacity for a population of 500,000 people over the same timeframe.

Key elements of the plan include providing for longer term additional growth in Colac and Winchelsea. Key

infrastructure projects and key project work are identified. In relation to residential growth, the plan directs:

Take up of existing areas identified in the Colac Structure Plan;

Potential town expansion to south and west (ahead of growth at other centres – focus on broader range

of housing options) include potential take up of LDRZ/RLZ land;

Investigate infill opportunities around town centre.

3.2 PLANNING POLICY CONTEXT

Ensuring a sufficient supply of urban land is supported by the State Planning Policy Framework within Clause

11 – Settlement. Strategies within this policy seek to:

Ensure the ongoing provision of land and supporting infrastructure to support sustainable urban

development.

Ensure that sufficient land is available to meet forecast demand.

Plan to accommodate projected population growth over at least a 15 year period and provide clear

direction on locations where growth should occur.

Monitor development trends and land supply and demand for housing and industry.

Restrict low-density rural residential development that would compromise future development at

higher densities.

Planning must consider Victorian Government population projections and land supply estimates, as guided

DTPLI has provided recent population projections through its Victoria in Focus (VIF) project in 2015.

3.3 PREVIOUS LAND SUPPLY ESTIMATES

3.2.1 COLAC STRUCTURE PLAN RESIDENTIAL LAND STRATEGY 2005

The Colac Structure Plan (2006, Colac Otway Shire & Connell Wagner), included a Residential Land Strategy

which was incorporated into the Colac Otway Planning Scheme by Amendment C55 in 2008. At exhibition

the strategy gave recommendations to include areas of future residential land within the Structure Plan.

However, submissions to the C55 panel were made regarding the simplistic and unrealistic estimates of land

supply within the Colac and Elliminyt area. The panel considered these submissions and made

recommendations to Colac Otway Shire to undertake a detailed analysis, which resulted in removal of the

future residential land recommendations.

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Projected growth based on a desktop analysis from the G21 (Geelong Region Alliance) Growth Plan in 2005

resulted in a revised land supply estimate within the Structure Plan, as noted in the following extract (p73):

3.2.2 G21 RESIDENTIAL LAND SUPPLY MONITORING PROJECT 2013

The suggested residential land supply as described in the Colac Structure Plan in 2005 were refined

downwards by the G21 – Geelong Region Alliance as part of their Residential Land Supply Monitoring

Project (2013 – Spatial Economics).

Relevant key findings included:

From July 2006 – July 2012, an average of 82 dwellings per annum were constructed in Colac (SLA), (p6);

The average annual projected demand for Colac (SLA) from, 2011-2031 is 111 dwellings per annum

(including rural residential development – RLZ and LDRZ);

The total lot requirement (for residential zoned lots) from 2013-2031 is 1173; and

As of March 2013 there was deemed to be an existing zoned residential lot capacity of 1136 lots (based on

zoned broad hectare and available infill development) which will satisfy 18 years of future demand in

Colac and Elliminyt. If historic trend based demand figures are substituted for projected growth, there will

be an existing zoned residential lot capacity of 25 years (p8).

The project report also indicates:

Of the 1136 capacity, 139 of these will be provided by minor infill supply (lots with parent titles of less

than 5000m2);

From July 2006 to March 2013 broad hectare and infill lot construction averaged 36 lots per annum for

Colac/Elliminyt (pp19-20), however the report noted the cyclical pattern of lot releases with some years

exceeding 100 lots and other years substantially reducing to substantially less than 30.

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Map 4 of the report shows the areas analysed and timing of projected lot supply, and the accompanying

table (p33) describes the anticipated timing:

Completed

(2013)

1-2 years

2013-2014

3-5 years

2015-2018

6-10 years

2019-2023

11+ years

2024+

No timing Total

112 140 351 310 223 1136

The above findings did not give recognition or weight to constraints which are significant in the local

context.

3.4 BUILDING APPROVALS & TRENDS

The recent Colac Housing Needs Assessment (2016, p7, Southern Cross Planning) summarises Colac Otway

Shire dwelling construction data and current construction rate since the 2011 census.

The annual dwelling construction figures vary from the G21 2013 figures due to discrepancies between

census data, statistical areas and recorded building approval data.

“In 2011 there were 5,262 private dwellings in the Colac urban area. This is an increase of 809 dwellings from

1991, and averaging 40 new dwellings per annum across the period. However, over the most recent period

where statistical data is available (2006-2011), 320 new dwellings were constructed. This averages at 64 new

dwellings per annum, a marked increase over the 20-year trend.

Of these dwellings, a slight variation of composition is noted. In 1991 – 2011 the number of separate house

dwellings has remained relatively steady, at 87-88% of the total. The number of medium density dwellings

has proportionally increased over the period from 10% to 12%. During the 1991 – 1996 period 30 medium

density dwellings were constructed, or an average of 6 per annum. However, during the 2006 – 2011 period,

82 dwellings were constructed, an average of over 16 per annum.

From 2011 to 2016 the records indicated that a total of 272 dwellings have been completed in the study area.

This averages at 60 per annum, similar to the number of dwellings per annum between 2006 -2011. The

interesting result was that 14.5% of new dwellings were classified as medium density dwellings, above the

recent 12% during the 2006 – 2011 period. Data is not available on the number of bedrooms in the medium

density dwellings.”

Table 3: Dwelling Construction August 2011 – February 2016

Colac 2011 - 2016

Dwelling type

Dwellings 233

Medium density 39

Total Private Dwellings 272

Source : Colac Otway Shire Building Department records

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3.5 RESIDENTIAL ZONES & SUBDIVISION

Currently, three residential zones are applied variously in Colac:

GENERAL RESIDENTIAL 1 ZONE

General Residential 1 Zone (GRZ1) applies to the majority of traditional residential areas and is the primary

zone applied to areas available for residential development. There is no minimum lot size for subdivision,

and the schedule 1 to the zone has not been modified for the local context. A subdivision must meet the

objectives of clause 56 – Residential Subdivision, which has a range of objectives, with its purpose being:

To implement the State Planning Policy Framework and the Local Planning Policy Framework,

including the Municipal Strategic Statement and local planning policies;

To create livable and sustainable neighbourhoods and urban places with character and identity;

To achieve residential subdivision outcomes that appropriately respond to the site and its context for:

o Metropolitan Melbourne growth areas,

o Infill sites within established residential areas,

o Regional cities and towns.

To ensure residential subdivision design appropriately provides for:

o Policy implementation,

o Livable and sustainable communities,

o Residential lot design,

o Urban landscape,

o Access and mobility management,

o Integrated water management,

o Site management

o Utilities.

The majority of land and housing take-up in Colac until 2050 is expected to be in GRZ1 areas. Typically lots

created for single dwellings have been historically in the range of 700-900 m2; more recent and current

demand figures an average around 700m2; based on regional growth in high demand areas such as

Warnambool and Armstrong Creek, 450-700m2 will normalise in Colac into the future. The higher lot yield

will be offset by localised constraints causing larger lots in infill areas.

LOW DENSITY RESIDENTIAL ZONE

Low Density Residential Zone (LDRZ) applies currently to three separate locations in Elliminyt: the Belvedere

Drive Estate to the south-east of the town; Christies Road to the south-west, and a number of blocks north-

east of Irrewillipe Road and Armstrong Street.

A minimum lot size of 0.4 hectares applies to areas where reticulated sewerage is not available, or, if

available, the minimum lot size is reduced to 0.2 hectares. The purpose of the zone is:

To implement the State Planning Policy Framework and the Local Planning Policy Framework,

including the Municipal Strategic Statement and local planning policies;

To provide for low-density residential development on lots which, in the absence of reticulated

sewerage, can treat and retain all waste-water.

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RURAL LIVING ZONE

Rural Living Zone (RLZ) applies to the intervening flat land between elevated residential areas in Elliminyt

and Colac. Open low-density housing reflects limitations of minimal land gradients causing natural restraints

in stormwater dispersal and significant areas subject to inundation. Rural Living Zoned land west of the

Colac-Lavers Hill Road is outside the reticulated sewerage network. Rural Living Zoned land east of the

Colac Lavers Hill Road is inside the sewer district but is also subject to inundation and engineering challenges

for stormwater and sewer connections due to minimal land gradients.

The schedule to the RLZ specifies a minimum subdivision lot size of 1.2 hectares for Elliminyt.

The purpose of the zone is:

To implement the State Planning Policy Framework and the Local Planning Policy Framework,

including the Municipal Strategic Statement and local planning policies;

To provide for residential use in a rural environment;

To provide for agricultural land uses which do not adversely affect the amenity of surrounding areas;

To protect and enhance the natural resources, biodiversity and landscape and heritage values of the

area;

To encourage use and development of the land based on comprehensive and sustainable land

management practices and infrastructure provision.

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4. METHODOLOGY & ASSUMPTIONS Methodology for providing an estimate of potential lot yield and housing supply has been based on

identification of relevant land supply types, measuring land area, excluding undevelopable areas,

appropriating take-outs for public open space, roads and service infrastructure, and applying a lot yield

range. For infill development areas, the lot yield has been estimated based on the minimum lot size where

applicable and other factors described above.

Sites may comprise individual or multiple parcels.

Land area is estimated using online tools such as provided on Victorian Government land data

interactive site: https://www.spear.land.vic.gov.au/lassi/SpearUI.jsp

Development areas are estimated using aerial imagery and mapping. These areas exclude LSIO and

existing development, as noted.

Public open space on-site take-outs are based on public open space provision of up to 10% of land

area as per the schedule to clause 52.01 of the scheme, and consideration of Colac Otway Shire’s

Public Open Space Strategy (2011). For infill development public open space is likely to be provided

as a monetary contribution.

Road area take-outs are based on the draft IDP generally requiring 18m width enabling verge space

including best practice environmental stormwater management design.

Lot yield is determined by consideration of:

o Minimum lot size or average lot size or expected lot yield range for broadacre subdivision

o Approved or drafted subdivision design when available

o Estimation having regard to the above base take-outs and area capacity

o Calculations are rounded up or down to nearest whole number.

o Constraint rating.

Existing development area was not measured for infill Rural Living as land supply potential is

determined by minimum lot size.

LAND SUBJECT TO INUNDATION

Historically the intervening areas between Elliminyt and Colac have been subject to inundation along the

Barongarook Creek and Deans Creek catchments. Flood and inundation modeling has previously identified

these areas based on projections for the 1 in 100 year ARI flood event as determined by the floodplain

management authority, and reflected by application of the Land Subject to Inundation Overlay.

Inundation areas for this assessment are based on recent revised mapping by BMT WBM on behalf of

DEWLP. The refined mapping is shown in the aerial image thumbnails for each assessment reference area.

Area (land size) subject to inundation is estimated using MapWinGIS. Full maps of the current LSIO and

revised extents are shown in Appendices 8.3 and 8.4.

Areas affected by LSIO locally have been deemed generally unsuitable for development in consideration of

free passage and temporary storage of floodwaters and local drainage conditions. This land supply

assessment has reflected this approach by classifying LSIO land as ‘significantly constrained’ with potential

lot yield assessed but with no timeframe expectation of supply, in recognition that engineering design with

earthworks and drainage works can resolve inundation issues, dependent on market and economic factors.

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4.1 RESIDENTIAL LAND SUPPLY TYPES

Refer to Appendix 8.1 for maps indicating location of land supply types and reference sites.

BROADHECTARE

Broadhectare sites are:

Supply land generally with a development area of 2 ha or greater.

Sites are further denoted as ‘greenfield’ where there is an absence of constraining existing

development.

INFILL

Infill sites are:

Supply land generally less than 2 ha (GRZ1) with surrounding development present and further lot

yield potential, or

Lots identified as small lot subdivision opportunities, such as existing lots with dual frontage; or

Land in the RLZ or LDRZ with further subdivision potential in context of applicable minimum lot

sizes.

INTENSIFICATION

Sites identified in the current urban residential environment with potential for intensification of housing

supply through either small lot subdivision or medium density development.

Sites appropriate for demolition and renewal are not identified as part of the assessment.

VACANT

Site identified as individual vacant allotments through aerial imagery and verified through site

confirmation.

Excludes recently released subdivisions yet to be developed (these are classified as ‘completed’ in

the lot yield assessment.

Identification of vacant lots are limited to those within assessment reference areas. There are likely

to be additional vacant lots within established residential areas.

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4.2 RESIDENTIAL LAND DEVELOPMENT TIMING

Estimated timing for land supply within this report:

Completed Statement of compliance imminent, or titles recently issued. Although these lots may be vacant, they are differentiated from vacant land within existing supply.

1-2 years Permit application current or permit issued, certification process under the Subdivision Act current.

3-10 years: No constraints, or minimal constraints which do not necessarily restrict housing development.

11+ years: Dependent on external factors, such as extension of sewer district, but likely to be resolved over time, or minor constraints which require resolution for housing development to proceed. Staged lot releases for large scale broad hectare subdivision

Significantly constrained

Requires resolution of complex issues such as inundation/flood overlay, agreements between multiple separate landholders, or unable to be serviced or accessed with no current foreseeable change in situation.

No timing Existing vacant lots held as part of multiple parcels in one ownership with primary dwelling on one of these parcels. Infill subdivision requiring dwelling excision instigated by individual landholders.

4.3 PROJECTED DEMAND

Colac Otway Shire’s Housing Needs Assessment (2016 draft) provides three growth scenarios for population

and total dwellings commencing from 2011 ABS datasets. The report notes the different scenarios provide

significant variations in total population and dwelling needs.

The report concludes (p24 draft):

“…it is estimated that 60 new dwellings per year will be required to meet the housing needs of Colac. If

Council seeks to reach the aspirational 2050 target of 20,000 persons, then 86 new dwellings are

required per annum.

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4.4 CONSTRAINTS TO SUBDIVISION AND DEVELOPMENT

Supply of residential land within Colac is currently constrained in many locations by various significant

factors. Part of the brief of this project is to identify these constraints to ascertain a more accurate

calculation of lot yield beyond the base zoning potential of land.

Constraints are a caused by a mix of topographical, servicing and land use factors, and are summarised

below. The constraint rating is a subjective assessment of the potential to resolve constraints and enable

maximum lot yield for housing supply.

Constraint

Outside current reticulated sewerage district

Within reticulated sewerage district but low lying land unable to be serviced due to land gradients without significant engineering infrastructure

Inundation (LSIO) overlays

Stormwater & drainage issues unable to be resolved without substantial infrastructure costs

Infill subdivision opportunities reliant on consensus between multiple neighbouring land holders and sequential subdivision and development; (such as in some areas affected by Development Plan Overlays)

Existing development pattern limiting subdivision opportunities, by constraining access and road construction opportunities.

Heritage Overlay (infill)

Topography – steep slopes limiting usable land

Market – economic or social factors,

Planning review

Constraint Rating

Severe – unable to be resolved or unlikely to be resolved within 10-15 years

Moderate – likely to be resolved with future funding, strategy and/or negotiation, or change in market conditions

Low – solution anticipated or work underway to resolve constraint

No impact - constraints in area with no impact to lot/housing supply

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5. HOUSING LAND ASSESSMENT 5.1 BROADHECTARE SITES

BROADHECTARE GRZ1

1. Rifle Butts Rd/Murray Street/Lake Colac/Zone Boundary (Broadhectare-Greenfield) GRZ1

Total land area

Land area excluding existing d’ment

Lot yield un-constrained areas

Vacant lots un-constrained

Lot supply range/notes

43.6 ha 30.8 ha Vegetation also excluded

n/a 0 Lot yield potential up to 15/ha - shelter belts may be incorporated into POS

Constraint Constraint rating

Area constrained

Lot yield constrained

Vacant lots constrained

Outside reticulated sewerage district

43.6ha 462 n/a

DPO2 – Requires overall design between a number of landholders across 13 titles.

43.6ha

part DDO9 – no constraint to supply

8.6ha

Forecast d’ment timing/lots/supply

No timing Completed

1-2 years 3-10 years

11+ years

Total est. or actual yield

Vacant Signif. const.

Total supply

462 462 0 462

2. Murray Street – previous High School site (Broadhectare- Greenfield) GRZ1

Total land area

Land area excluding existing d’ment

Lot yield un-constrained areas

Vacant lots un-constrained

Lot supply range/notes

n/a 5 ha 0 Part of site subject to future scheme amendment to change zone from current PUZ1 to GRZ1. Lot yield potential 12/ha.

Constraint Constraint rating

Area constrained

Lot yield constrained

Vacant lots constrained

Amendment and sale process

5 ha 60

Forecast d’ment timing/lots/supply

No timing Completed

1-2 years 3-10 years

11+ years

Total est. or actual yield

Vacant Signif. Constr.

Total supply

60 60 0 60

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3. Jennings Street – (Broadhectare) GRZ1

Total land area

Land area excluding existing d’ment

Lot yield un-constrained areas

Vacant lots un-constrained

Lot supply range/notes

5.7ha 4.0 ha 0 Lot yield potential 10/ha due to access/existing development

Constraint Constraint rating

Area constrained

Lot yield constrained

Vacant lots constrained

DPO2 – Requires approval of overall plan across 6 titles .

5.7ha 40

Forecast development timing/lots/supply

No timing Completed

1-2 years 3-10 years

11+ years

Total est. or actual yield

Vacant Signif const.

Total supply

40 40 0 40

4. Imperial Drive – (Broadhectare-Greenfield) GRZ1

Total land area

Land area excluding existing d’ment

Lot yield un-constrained areas

Vacant lots un-constrained

Lot supply range/notes

3.2ha 3.2ha 31 1 Lot yield based on estimated design

Constraint Constraint rating

Area constrained

Lot yield constrained

Vacant lots constrained

Forecast d’ment timing/lots/supply

No timing Completed

1-2 years 3-10 years

11+ years

Total est. or actual yield

Vacant Signif. Const.

Total supply

10 8 13 31 1 32

8. Cants Rd/Wilson St/Sinclair St Sth/Hearn St – (Broadhectare-Greenfield) GRZ1

Total land area

Land area excluding existing d’ment

Lot yield un-constrained areas

Vacant lots un-constrained

Lot supply range/notes

9.0ha 7.2ha 5- Sinclair St South

1 10 lots per hectare estimated if constraints were resolved to allow for land set aside for directed drainage diversion works

Constraint Constraint rating

Area constrained

Lot yield constrained

Vacant lots constrained

LSIO, access to lots in LSIO

5.0 ha 50 0

Stormwater/Sewer main extension costs

2.2 ha excl.LSIO

17

DPO2 - Requires Council approval of plan/design across multiple titles and developer instigation.

5.2 ha

Hearn Street construction servicing

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Forecast d’ment timing/lots/supply

No timing Completed

1-2 years 3-10 years

11+ years

Total est. or actual yield

Vacant Signif. Constrained

Total supply

5 17 22 1 50 73

9. Hearn St/Sinclair St Sth/Armstrong St – (Broadhectare-Greenfield) GRZ1

Total land area

Land area excluding existing d’ment

Lot yield un-constrained areas

Vacant lots un-constrained

Lot supply range/notes

9.9ha 9.54ha 2 10 lots/hectare within LSIO estimated if constraints resolved to set aside land for directed drainage diversion works. 10 lots/hectare for DPO2.

Constraint Constraint rating

Area constrained

Lot yield constrained

Vacant lots constrained

LSIO

5.1ha 51 0

DPO2 - Requires Council approval of plan/design across multiple titles and developer instigation.

9.3ha 4.5 ha excl. LSIO

45

Hearn Street construction servicing

Forecast dment timing/lots/supply

No timing Completed

1-2 years 3-10 years

11+ years

Total est. or actual yield

Vacant Signif. constrained

Total supply

45 45 2 51 98

10. Pound Rd/Hearn St/Sinclair St Sth– (Broadhectare-Greenfield) GRZ1

Total land area

Land area excluding existing d’ment

Lot yield un-constrained areas

Vacant lots un-constrained

Lot supply range/notes

11.5ha 11.5ha 18 lots* 10 lots/hectare within LSIO est. if constraints resolved to set aside land for directed drainage diversion works. 13 lot subdivision from Pound Rd recently completed.

Constraint Constraint rating

Area constrained

Lot yield constrained

Vacant lots constrained

LSIO Hearn St LSIO provides access to unconstrained land*

7.8ha 60 +18* 0

Hearn Street construction servicing

Forecast d’ment timing/lots/supply

No timing Completed

1-2 years 3-10 years

11+ years

Total est. or actual yield

Vacant Signif. constrained

Total supply

13 13 78 91

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11. Aireys Street/Hart Street– (Broadhectare/Infill) GRZ1

Total land area

Land area excluding existing d’ment

Lot yield un-constrained areas

Vacant lots un-constrained

Lot supply range/notes

3.7ha 2.79ha Planning permit for 13 lot subdivision issued 161 Hart St

Constraint Constraint rating

Area constrained

Lot yield constrained

Vacant lots constrained

Sewer servicing/connection

1.6ha 17

Aireys Street construction servicing

Forecast d’ment timing/lots/supply

No timing Completed

1-2 years 3-10 years

11+ years

Total est. or actual yield

Vacant Signif. Constrained

Total supply

13 17 30 30

12. Aireys Street, Hart St, Main Street, Pound Road – (Broadhectare/Infill) GRZ1

Total land area

Land area excluding existing d’ment

Lot yield un-constrained areas

Vacant lots un-constrained

Lot supply range/notes

12.8ha 6.4ha 10 lots/ha estimated yield if access/design resolved

Constraint Constraint rating

Area constrained

Lot yield constrained

Vacant lots constrained

DPO2 – requires consensus between 26 separate landholders in relation to access and design.

6.4ha 64

Forecast d’ment timing/lots/supply

No timing Completed

1-2 years 3-10 years

11+ years

Total est. or actual yield

Vacant Signif. Constrained

Total supply

64 64 64

13. Irrewillipe Rd/Aireys Street/Hart St/Main Street,– (Broadhectare/Infill) GRZ1

Total land area

Land area excluding existing d’ment

Lot yield un-constrained areas

Vacant lots un-constrained

Lot supply range/notes

9.1ha 5.8ha 3 Aireys St 10 lots/ha estimated yield

Constraint Constraint rating

Area constrained

Lot yield constrained

Vacant lots constrained

DPO2 – Development plan (Area 4) approved. Relies on sequential subdivision & owner participation – 15 landholders.

5.8 ha 55

Forecast d’ment timing/lots/supply

No timing Completed

1-2 years 3-10 years

11+ years

Total est. or actual yield

Vacant Signif. Constrained

Total supply

3 27 28 58 58

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14. Ballagh St/Irrewillipe Rd/Hart St/Main Street– (Broadhectare/Infill) GRZ1

Total land area

Land area excluding existing d’ment

Lot yield un-constrained areas

Vacant lots un-constrained

Lot supply range/notes

8.3ha 6.7ha Lot yield estimated based on approved DPO plan and pattern of existing development.

Constraint Constraint rating

Area constrained

Lot yield constrained

Vacant lots constrained

DPO2 – Development plan (Area 5) approved for area. Relies on sequential development and owner participation – 16 landholders.

6.7ha 36 estimated

Forecast d’ment timing/lots/supply

No timing Completed

1-2 years 3-10 years

11+ years

Total est. or actual yield

Vacant Signif. Constrained

Total supply

36 36 36

16. Main St/Zone Boundary,– (Broadhectare-Greenfield) GRZ1

Total land area

Land area excluding existing d’ment

Lot yield un-constrained areas

Vacant lots un-constrained

Lot supply range/notes

2.3ha 2.3ha Planning permit granted for 25 lot subdivision

Constraint Constraint rating

Area constrained

Lot yield constrained

Vacant lots constrained

Forecast d’ment timing/lots/supply

No timing Completed

1-2 years 3-10 years

11+ years

Total est. or actual yield

Vacant Signif. constrained

Total supply

25 25 25

17. Main St/Pound Road/Zone Boundary– (Broadhectare-Brownfield) GRZ1

Total land area

Land area excluding existing d’ment*

Lot yield un-constrained areas

Vacant lots un-constrained

Lot supply range/notes

4.7ha 4.5ha 3 *residential development

Constraint Constraint rating

Area constrained

Lot yield constrained

Vacant lots constrained

Land used for farm supply business with associated buildings & works. Environmental audit may be required for residential development.

1.3ha 13

Colac Otway Shire works depot – zoning anomoly 2.7 0 Forecast d’ment timing/lots/supply

No timing Completed

1-2 years 3-10 years

11+ years

Total est. or actual yield

Vacant Signif. constrained

Total supply

3 13 16 16

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18. Hearn St/Rankin Street/Queen Street/Zone Boundary– (Broadhectare) GRZ1

Total land area

Land area excluding existing d’ment*

Lot yield un-constrained areas

Vacant lots un-constrained

Lot supply range/notes

2.6ha 2.14ha

Constraint Constraint rating

Area constrained

Lot yield constrained

Vacant lots constrained

Access and road network

2.14ha 16

Forecast d’ment timing/lots/supply

No timing Completed

1-2 years 3-10 years

11+ years

Total est. or actual yield

Vacant Signif. constrained

Total supply

8 8 16 16

19. Hearn St/Talbot Street/ Zone Boundary– (Broadhectare) GRZ1

Total land area

Land area excluding existing d’ment*

Lot yield un-constrained areas

Vacant lots un-constrained

Lot supply range/notes

5.0ha 3.8ha 16 Current planning application for 16 lot subdivision

Constraint Constraint rating

Area constrained

Lot yield constrained

Vacant lots constrained

LSIO

4.0ha 40-16=24

Talbot Street construction within waterway passage, Hearn street within LSIO

Forecast d’ment timing/lots/supply

No timing Completed

1-2 years 3-10 years

11+ years

Total est. or actual yield

Vacant Signif. constrained

Total supply

16 16 24 40 \

20. Hearn St/Fulton Street/ Zone Boundary– (Broadhectare) GRZ1

Total land area

Land area excluding existing d’ment*

Lot yield un-constrained areas

Vacant lots un-constrained

Lot supply range/notes

3.7ha 3.7ha 19 1 10 lots/ha reflecting density context Opportunity to extend road into rear of Talbot St existing lots.

Constraint Constraint rating

Area constrained

Lot yield constrained

Vacant lots constrained

LSIO

1.8ha 18

Talbot Street construction within waterway passage, Hearn Street within LSIO

Forecast d’ment timing/lots/supply

No timing Completed

1-2 years 3-10 years

11+ years

Total est. or actual yield

Vacant Signif. constrained

Total supply

1 19 20 18 38

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21. Howarth St/Hart St/Ballagh St– (Broadhectare/Infill) GRZ1

22. Howarth St/Harris Road– (Broadhectare/Infill) GRZ1

Total land area

Land area excluding existing d’ment*

Lot yield un-constrained areas

Vacant lots un-constrained

Lot supply range/notes

5.7ha 2.2ha 11 lots estimated by design and context

Constraint Constraint rating

Area constrained

Lot yield constrained

Vacant lots constrained

Existing development– limited infill capacity 2.2ha 11 Forecast d’ment timing/lots/supply

No timing Completed

1-2 years 3-10 years

11+ years

Total est. or actual yield

Vacant Signif. constrained

Total supply

11 11 11

25. Harris Road/Tulloh St/Dowling St– (Broadhectare -Infill) GRZ1

Total land area

Land area excluding existing d’ment*

Lot yield un-constrained areas

Vacant lots un-constrained

Lot supply range/notes

6.3ha 2.68ha 1 10 lot subdivision recently completed and dwellings under construction or completed. Planning permits issued for 6 + 5 + 8 lot subdivisions (19 lots total)

Constraint Constraint rating

Area constrained

Lot yield constrained

Vacant lots constrained

Drainage line to north east of reserve 1 Forecast d’ment timing/lots/supply

No timing Completed

1-2 years 3-10 years

11+ years

Total est. or actual yield

Vacant Signif. constrained

Total supply

1 10 19 30 1 31

Total land area

Land area excluding existing d’ment*

Lot yield un-constrained areas

Vacant lots un-constrained

Lot supply range/notes

2.4ha 1.2ha 7 9 lots estimated by design and context

Constraint Constraint rating

Area constrained

Lot yield constrained

Vacant lots constrained

Existing development & natural drainage basin – limited infill capacity

1.0ha 2

Howarth St topography – steep slopes Forecast d’ment timing/lots/supply

No timing Completed

1-2 years 3-10 years

11+ years

Total est. or actual yield

Vacant Signif. constrained

Total supply

2 7 9 9

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26. Harris Road/Dowling St– (Broadhectare-Infill) GRZ1

Total land area

Land area excluding existing d’ment*

Lot yield un-constrained areas

Vacant lots un-constrained

Lot supply range/notes

2.7ha 2.7ha 1

Constraint Constraint rating

Area constrained

Lot yield constrained

Vacant lots constrained

Stormwater infrastructure 2.7ha 9

Forecast d’ment timing/lots/supply

No timing Completed

1-2 years 3-10 years

11+ years

Total est. or actual yield

Vacant Signif. constrained

Total supply

9 9 9

27. Scanlan Drive/Wyuna Drive (Wyuna Estate)– (Broadhectare-greenfield) GRZ1

Total land area

Land area excluding existing d’ment*

Lot yield un-constrained areas

Vacant lots un-constrained

Lot supply range/notes

17.3ha 17.3ha 128 18 lot subdivision recently completed Planning permit issued for 110 lot staged subdivision Stages 1-2 42 lots underway Stages 3-6 68 lots 3-6 years

Constraint Constraint rating

Area constrained

Lot yield constrained

Vacant lots constrained

S7 in part relies on infrastructure connection from land within reference area 28.

4.57 38

Forecast d’ment timing/lots/supply

No timing Completed

1-2 years 3-10 years

11+ years

Total est. or actual yield

Vacant Signif. constrained

Total supply

18 42 68 38 166 166

28. Harris Road (Wyuna Estate extension)– (Broadhectare-greenfield) Pending GRZ1 Amendment C78

Total land area

Land area excluding existing d’ment*

Lot yield un-constrained areas

Vacant lots un-constrained

14.03ha 14.03ha 100 Assumes completion of Amendment C78 Lot yield estimated in reference to overall development plan. Lot timing estimated.

Constraint Constraint rating

Area constrained

Lot yield constrained

Vacant lots constrained

EMO along eastern boundary – constraint to lot size only Forecast d’ment timing/lots/supply

No timing Completed

1-2 years 3-10 years

11+ years

Total est. or actual yield

Vacant Signif. constrained

Total supply

50 50 100 100

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32. Bruce Street/McGonigal Street– (Broadhectare) GRZ1

Total land area

Land area excluding existing d’ment*

Lot yield un-constrained areas

Vacant lots un-constrained

Lot supply range/notes

5.9ha 4.5ha 54 *Area excludes COS former landfill site 12 lots per hectare lot yield

Constraint Constraint rating

Area constrained

Lot yield constrained

Vacant lots constrained

Zoning anomaly – COS former landfill site 1.4ha 0 Forecast d’ment timing/lots/supply

No timing Completed

1-2 years 3-10 years

11+ years

Total est. or actual yield

Vacant Signif. constrained

Total supply

54 54 54

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BROADHECTARE LDRZ

1. Belverdere Drive (Broadhectare) LDRZ min. lot size 0.4ha

Total land area

Land area excluding existing d’ment

Lot yield un-constrained areas

Vacant lots un-constrained

Lot supply range/notes

57.5 ha ha 0 Planning approval current for staged 97 lots.

Constraint Constraint rating

Area constrained

Lot yield constrained

Vacant lots constrained

n/a current permit

n/a

Forecast d’ment timing/lots/supply

No timing Completed

1-2 years 3-10 years

11+ years

Total est. or actual yield

Vacant Signif. constrained

Total supply

6 10 81 97 0 97

3. Christies Road (Broadhectare) LDRZ min. lot size 0.4ha

Total land area

Land area excluding existing d’ment

Lot yield un-constrained areas

Vacant lots un-constrained

Lot supply range/notes

40.0 ha 38.0ha Exclude 10% POS & 10% infrastructure. Median lot size of 0.6 ha. Potential yield 50.1 lots.

Constraint Constraint rating

Area constrained

Lot yield constrained

Vacant lots constrained

Planning review regarding application of zone current following VCAT determination?

all 50 0

Forecast dment timing/lots/supply

No timing Completed

1-2 years 3-10 years

11+ years

Total est. or actual yield

Vacant Signif. constrained

Total supply

0 0 50 50

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5.2 INFILL SITES

INFILL GRZ1

5. Cants Road – (infill) GRZ1

Total land area

Land area excluding existing d’ment

Lot yield un-constrained areas

Vacant lots un-constrained

Lot supply range/notes

1.4 ha 4500m2 Excludes church

4 Lot yield based on estimated design

Constraint Constraint rating

Area constrained

Lot yield constrained

Vacant lots constrained

Forecast d’ment timing/lots/supply

No timing Completed

1-2 years 3-10 years

11+ years

Total est. or actual yield

Vacant Signif Constrained

Total supply

4 4 0 4

6. Balnagowan – (infill) GRZ1

Total land area

Land area excluding existing d’ment

Lot yield un-constrained areas

Vacant lots un-constrained

Lot supply range/notes

1.6ha 1.43 Planning approval current for retirement village – 66 units, no subdivision. Refer to Section 6.3 - findings. Dwellings are considered medium density for purposes of this assessment and excluded from the lot/single dwelling assessment.

Constraint Constraint rating

Area constrained

Lot yield constrained

Vacant lots constrained

Heritage Overlay

Forecast development timing/lots/supply

No timing Completed

1-2 years 3-10 years

11+ years

Total est. or actual yield

Vacant Signif. constrained

Total supply

n/a n/a

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7. 12-16 Church Street – (infill) GRZ1

Total land area

Land area excluding existing d’ment

Lot yield un-constrained areas

Vacant lots un-constrained

Lot supply range/notes

1.1ha 4115m2 3 Dependant on current land use and planning requirements eg. parking

Constraint Constraint rating

Area constrained

Lot yield constrained

Vacant lots constrained

Forecast development timing/lots/supply

No timing Completed

1-2 years 3-10 years

11+ years

Total est. or actual yield

Vacant Signif. constained

Total supply

3 3 0 3

15. Main St/Zone Boundary– (Broadhectare- Brownfield) GRZ1

Total land area

Land area excluding existing d’ment

Lot yield un-constrained areas

Vacant lots un-constrained

Lot supply range/notes

1.5 ha 1.31ha

Constraint Constraint rating

Area constrained

Lot yield constrained

Vacant lots constrained

Stormwater connection/servicing/land gradient 6

Access & consenus between landholders Forecast d’ment timing/lots/supply

No timing Completed

1-2 years 3-10 years

11+ years

Total est. or actual yield

Vacant Signif. constrained

Total supply

6 6 6

23. Queen St/Zone Boundary– (Infill) GRZ1

Total land area

Land area excluding existing d’ment*

Lot yield un-constrained areas

Vacant lots un-constrained

Lot supply range/notes

6410m2 3 4 lot subdivision recently completed of which 1 lot contains an existing dwelling

Constraint Constraint rating

Area constrained

Lot yield constrained

Vacant lots constrained

Forecast d’ment timing/lots/supply

No timing Completed

1-2 years 3-10 years

11+ years

Total est. or actual yield

Vacant Signif. constrained

Total supply

3 3 3

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24. Beechy Court– (Infill) GRZ1

Total land area

Land area excluding existing d’ment*

Lot yield un-constrained areas

Vacant lots un-constrained

Lot supply range/notes

2.5ha 5000m2 1 Current development precludes further subdivision except possible creation of 1 lot fronting Beechy Court.

Constraint Constraint rating

Area constrained

Lot yield constrained

Vacant lots constrained

Forecast d’ment timing/lots/supply

No timing Completed

1-2 years 3-10 years

11+ years

Total est. or actual yield

Vacant Signif. constrained

Total supply

1 1 1

29. Church St/Polwarth St South/Wallace Street– (Infill) GRZ1

Total land area

Land area excluding existing d’ment*

Lot yield un-constrained areas

Vacant lots un-constrained

Lot supply range/notes

2.8ha 2.0ha 1 .

Constraint Constraint rating

Area constrained

Lot yield constrained

Vacant lots constrained

Telstra site depot – would require site contamination assessment and potential remedial works

8000m2

Access & consensus of 7 separate landholders 8 Forecast d’ment timing/lots/supply

No timing Completed

1-2 years 3-10 years

11+ years

Total est. or actual yield

Vacant Signif. constrained

Total supply

0 1 8 9

30. Cardell Court– (Infill) GRZ1

Total land area

Land area excluding existing d’ment*

Lot yield un-constrained areas

Vacant lots un-constrained

Lot supply range/notes

1.5ha 1.5ha 13

Constraint Constraint rating

Area constrained

Lot yield constrained

Vacant lots constrained

No constraints Forecast d’ment timing/lots/supply

No timing Completed

1-2 years 3-10 years

11+ years

Total est. or actual yield

Vacant Signif. constrained

Total supply

13 13 13

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31. Bruce Street– (Infill) GRZ1

Total land area

Land area excluding existing d’ment*

Lot yield un-constrained areas

Vacant lots un-constrained

Lot supply range/notes

1.4ha 8000m2 5

Constraint Constraint rating

Area constrained

Lot yield constrained

Vacant lots constrained

Access to rear adjoining land 1 Forecast d’ment timing/lots/supply

No timing Completed

1-2 years 3-10 years

11+ years

Total est. or actual yield

Vacant Signif. constrained

Total supply

1 5 6 6

33. McGonigal Street– (Infill) GRZ1

Total land area

Land area excluding existing d’ment*

Lot yield un-constrained areas

Vacant lots un-constrained

Lot supply range/notes

1.5ha 1.5ha

Constraint Constraint rating

Area constrained

Lot yield constrained

Vacant lots constrained

Zoning anomaly – former COS landfill site 1.5ha 0 Forecast d’ment timing/lots/supply

No timing Completed

1-2 years 3-10 years

11+ years

Total est. or actual yield

Vacant Signif. constrained

Total supply

0

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INFILL LDRZ

2. Belverdere Drive (infill) LDRZ min. lot size 0.4ha

Total land area

Land area excluding existing d’ment

Lot yield un-constrained areas

Vacant lots un-constrained

Lot supply range/notes

72.5 ha 54.46 ha 2 Estimated maximum lot yield based on aerial image assessment having regard to existing development. Lot supply subject to individual land holders excising lots and market factors. *constraints not fatal to housing supply availability

Constraint Constraint rating

Area constrained

Lot yield constrained

Vacant lots constrained

Market

All 54

EMO1 and other overlays – no constraint to supply

Forecast dment timing/lots/supply

No timing Completed

1-2 years 3-10 years

11+ years

Total est. or actual yield

Vacant Signif. constrained

Total supply

54 4 58 2 60

4. Armstrong/Aireys/Irrewillipe/Hart (infill) LDRZ min. lot size 0.4ha (0.2ha if sewer available)

Total land area

Land area excluding existing d’ment

Lot yield un-constrained areas

Vacant lots un-constrained

Lot supply range/notes

18.5 ha 6.39 ha 4 3 Estimated maximum lot yield based on aerial image assessment having regard to existing development *constraints not fatal to housing supply availability

Constraint Constraint rating

Area constrained

Lot yield constrained

Vacant lots constrained

Sewer connection unavailable (except to 214 Armstrong St)

14

Forecast d’ment timing/lots/supply

No timing Completed

1-2 years 3-10 years

11+ years

Total est. or actual yield

Vacant Signif. constrained

Total supply

2 4 6 6 18 3 21

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INFILL RLZ

5. Armstrong St/Spring St/Ballagh St/Zone Boundary (infill) RLZ min. lot size 1.2ha

Total land area

Land area excluding existing d’ment

Lot yield un-constrained areas

Vacant lots un-constrained

Lot supply range/notes

16.2 ha 2 0 additional lot yield supply at 1.2ha

Constraint Constraint rating

Area constrained

Lot yield constrained

Vacant lots constrained

LSIO

4ha 2

Forecast d’ment timing/lots/supply

No timing Completed

1-2 years 3-10 years

11+ years

Total est. or actual yield

Vacant Signif. constrained

Total supply

0 2 2 4

6. Armstrong St/Harris Rd/Irrewillipe Rd (infill) RLZ min. lot size 1.2ha

Total land area

Land area excluding existing d’ment

Lot yield un-constrained areas

Vacant lots un-constrained

Lot supply range/notes

62.6ha 12 0 lot yield capacity at 1.2ha

Constraint Constraint rating

Area constrained

Lot yield constrained

Vacant lots constrained

Land subject to Inundation (LSIO)

37ha 11

Forecast d’ment timing/lots/supply

No timing Completed

1-2 years 3-10 years

11+ years

Total est. or actual yield

Vacant Signif. constrained

Total supply

0 12 11 23

7. Sinclair St Sth/Pound Rd/Armstrong St/Irrewillipe Rd (infill) RLZ min. lot size 1.2ha

Total land area

Land area excluding existing d’ment

Lot yield un-constrained areas

Vacant lots un-constrained

Lot supply range/notes

32.9ha 0 0 lot yield capacity at 1.2ha

Constraint Constraint rating

Area constrained

Lot yield constrained

Vacant lots constrained

Land subject to Inundation (LSIO)

16.4 ha 0

Forecast d’ment timing/lots/supply

No timing

Completed 1-2 years 3-10 years 11+ years Total est. or actual yield

Vacant

Total supply

0 0

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8. Sinclair St Sth/Pound Rd/Aireys St/Zone Boundary (includes Cants Rd) (infill) RLZ min. lot size 1.2ha

Total land area

Land area excluding existing d’ment

Lot yield un-constrained areas

Vacant lots un-constrained

Lot supply range/notes

27.0ha 3.6ha 3 1 3 lots potential at 200 Cants Rd at 1.2ha

Constraint Constraint rating

Area constrained

Lot yield constrained

Vacant lots constrained

Land subject to Inundation (LSIO)

8.9 ha 0 0

Forecast d’ment timing/lots/supply

No timing

Completed 1-2 years 3-10 years 11+ years Total est. or actual yield

Vacant

Total supply

3 3 1 4

9. Irrewillipe Rd/Sinclair St Sth/Aireys St (infill) RLZ min. lot size 1.2ha

Total land area

Land area excluding existing d’ment

Lot yield un-constrained areas

Vacant lots un-constrained

Lot supply range/notes

45.3 ha 0 6 0 lot yield capacity at 1.2ha

Constraint Constraint rating

Area constrained

Lot yield constrained

Vacant lots constrained

Land subject to Inundation (LSIO)

25ha 0 8

Forecast d’ment timing/lots/supply

No timing Completed

1-2 years 3-10 years

11+ years

Total est. or actual yield

Vacant Signif. constrained

Total supply

0 6 8 14

10. Slater St/Tulloh St/Woodrowvale Rd/Zone Boundary (infill) RLZ min. lot size 1.2ha

Total land area

Land area excluding existing d’ment

Lot yield un-constrained areas

Vacant lots un-constrained

Lot supply range/notes

36.4 ha 0 1 0 additional lot yield supply at 1.2ha. 5 lot subdivision recently completed.

Constraint Constraint rating

Area constrained

Lot yield constrained

Vacant lots constrained

Partial areas of land subject to Inundation (LSIO) Slater Street affected by LSIO.

26ha 5

Slater Street unconstructed between Queen St & Woodvale Rd (Privately leased government road). Construction would provide access to 5 existing allotments south side of Slater St.

6 (includes 5 LSIO)

Forecast d’ment timing/lots/supply

No timing Completed

1-2 years 3-10 years

11+ years

Total est. or actual yield

Vacant Signif. constrained

Total supply

5 5 1 6 12

11. Slater St/Forest St/Woodrowvale Rd/Zone Boundary (infill) RLZ min. lot size 1.2ha

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Total land area

Land area excluding existing d’ment

Lot yield un-constrained areas

Vacant lots un-constrained

Lot supply range/notes

27.3ha 0 4 0 additional lot yield supply at 1.2ha

Constraint Constraint rating

Area constrained

Lot yield constrained

Vacant lots constrained

Localised areas of steep and erosion prone land

0 0

Forecast d’ment timing/lots/supply

No timing Completed

1-2 years 3-10 years

11+ years

Total est. or actual yield

Vacant Signif. constrained

Total supply

1 1 4 5

12. Aireys St/Forest St/Slater St/Zone Boundary (infill) RLZ min. lot size 1.2ha

Total land area

Land area excluding existing d’ment

Lot yield un-constrained areas

Vacant lots un-constrained

Lot supply range/notes

62.0ha 3 1

Constraint Constraint rating

Area constrained

Lot yield constrained

Vacant lots constrained

Partial areas of LSIO 18.4ha 8 Slater Street unconstructed between Queen St & Woodvale Rd (Privately leased government road). Construction would provide access to 5 existing allotments north side of street. Intersection to Queen St affected by LSIO.

5 also included in LSIO

Forecast d’ment timing/lots/supply

No timing Completed

1-2 years 3-10 years

11+ years

Total est. or actual yield

Vacant Signif. constrained

Total supply

1 3 4 1 8 13

13. Aireys St/Forest St/Pound Rd/Zone Boundary (infill) RLZ min. lot size 1.2ha

Total land area

Land area excluding existing d’ment

Lot yield un-constrained areas

Vacant lots un-constrained

Lot supply range/notes

70.5ha 2 4 lot yield supply at 1.2ha

Constraint Constraint rating

Area constrained

Lot yield constrained

Vacant lots constrained

Partial areas of LSIO – 7 lots wholly constrained from development

26.3ha 0 7

Forecast d’ment timing/lots/supply

No timing Completed

1-2 years 3-10 years

11+ years

Total est. or actual yield

Vacant Signif constrained

Total supply

1 2 3 4 7 14

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14. Pound Rd/Forest St/Hearn St//Zone Boundary (infill) RLZ min. lot size 1.2ha

Total land area

Land area excluding existing d’ment

Lot yield un-constrained areas

Vacant lots un-constrained

Lot supply range/notes

36.4ha 1 0 Potential for 3 additional lots at 1.2 ha but constrained by LSIO or access subject to LSIO.

Constraint Constraint rating

Area constrained

Lot yield constrained

Vacant lots constrained

Partial areas of LSIO lots or access to lots constrained from development

21.4ha 3 5

Forecast d’ment timing/lots/supply

No timing Completed

1-2 years 3-10 years

11+ years

Total est. or actual yield

Vacant Signif. constrained

Total supply

1 1 8 9

15. Hearn St/Fulton St/ Zone Boundary (infill) RLZ min. lot size 1.2ha

Total land area

Land area excluding existing d’ment

Lot yield un-constrained areas

Vacant lots un-constrained

Lot supply range/notes

6.9ha 0 0 Potential for 4 additional lots at 1.2 ha

Constraint Constraint rating

Area constrained

Lot yield constrained

Vacant lots constrained

Partial areas of LSIO – Intersection of Hearn & Fulton affected by LSIO

4.8 ha 0 3

Rezoning to IN1Z proposed as part of current Commercial/Industrial Strategy C86

5

Forecast d’ment timing/lots/supply

No timing Completed

1-2 years 3-10 years

11+ years

Total est. or actual yield

Vacant Signif. constrained

Total supply

0 0 0

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5.3 INTENSIFICATION

The following section identifies existing residential areas suitable for intensification through subdivision or medium density development. It does not attempt to

allocate a lot yield supply but recognises the opportunity for supply through lot sizes, subdivision and development patterns. Images source: Department of Environment, Land, Water & Planning https://www.spear.land.vic.gov.au/lassi/SpearUI.jsp

1. Hart, Borwick, Campbell, Dowling Streets.

Original allotment sizes averaging 1600m2.

Dual road or lane access.

Medium density housing established.

Distance from Murray Street CBD 1km

2. Forbes Street

Original allotment sizes exceeding 1400m2

Distance from Murray Street CBD 450m

Close proximity to ‘health’ precinct

3. Ross Street Original allotment sizes exceeding 1600m2

Potential for subdivision if road network provided to rear of lots as part of subdivision design of former high school site to be rezoned.

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The typical medium-density housing model in Colac has been designed within an individual allotment, usually with vehicle access along one boundary and a unit design

replicated to maximum density across the available land balance. Typical individual medium density dwellings are single storey, contained within 250-300m2 with

additional area required for access and communal facilities. Slightly larger lot sizes achieve better neighborhood character outcomes in relation to the street for single

storey medium density dwellings.

The following case studies show various supply models existing in Colac, facilitated by combined allotments, infill opportunities and dual frontages:

1. 23 Scott St medium density housing.

Total land area 6200m2

10 units, average lot size 460m2

Common areas 1600m2 or 26% of land area

Presents to street as typical single dwelling opening into larger area to rear.

Image 1: 23 Scott St, Google earth streetview image.

2. 158 Pound Rd medium density housing

Total land area 1067m2

3 units, average lot size 315m2

Common area 122m2or 11% of land area.

Typical model of subdivision of individual allotment with access along long boundary.

Image 2: 158 Pound Rd, Google earth streetview image

3. 61 Pollack St medium density housing

Total land area 1951m2

5 units, average lot size 390m2

No common area, dual road abuttal along Pollack and Moet Streets.

Image 3: 61 Pollack St, Google earth streetview image

4. 2 Moore St medium density housing

Total land area 1100m2

3 units, average lot size 197m2

Common area 509m2 or 46% of land area)

Approved prior to ResCode &current clause 55 & 56 residential development provisions..

Image 4: 2 Moore St, Google earth streetview image

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6. FINDINGS SUMMARY 6.1 GENERAL RESIDENTIAL ZONE

The following table compiles data across all potential lot supply reference areas zoned GRZ1.

Ref. Area No timing Completed 1-2 years SHORT

3-10 years MEDIUM

11+ years LONG

Total est. or actual yield

Vacant Signif. const.

Total supply

Broadhectare GRZ1

14 51 135 391 742 1333 4 222 1559

Infill GRZ1

5 8 0 22 6 36 1 8 45

Total GRZ1

19 59 135 413 748 1369 5 273 1604

Key findings:

There are 135 lots currently in the approval/construction phase to be available in the short term.

There are 413 lots that are likely to be developed, or available to be developed within the next 3-10

years.

Supply after 10 years is not assured, as lot supply in this category requires resolution of moderate to

severe constraints. There are potentially 748 lots available long term.

Of the total potential supply (1604 lots), 748 or 47% require resolution of moderate to severe

constraints.

Of the total potential supply (1604 lots), 273 or 17% are significantly constrained and are unlikely to

form part of future supply.

Unconstrained greenfield subdivision potential forms only 148 lots (35.8%) of the medium term

supply (413 lots) (reference areas 4, 27, 32 & 30).

There are 5 vacant allotments within the reference areas (excluding recently constructed

subdivision), indicating demand is meeting, or exceeding, current supply rates.

The main constraining factors in lot yield are:1) the current sewer district extent,2) the availability

and viability of stormwater infrastructure and limitations caused by flat land gradients,3) extensive

areas of inundation, and 4) obtaining agreement across multiple landholders restricted by prior

development patterns.

The revised inundation areas changes expectations regarding the development potential of some

areas of GRZ1 (with areas previously considered at risk now deemed lower risk, and vice versa).

The above figures do not take into account lot supply through excising lots from individual lots usually

containing an existing dwelling. Timing has not been allocated for this type of lot supply as they are

dependent on landholder initiation, and lot and housing design. There are numerous opportunities for small

lot supply throughout Colac & Elliminyt. 19 opportunities were identified through the assessment process;

although the reference areas exclude established residential areas in the town.

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6.2 RLZ & LDRZ

The following table compiles data across all potential lot supply reference areas zoned LDRZ and RLZ.

Ref. Area No timing Completed 1-2 years SHORT

3-10 years MEDIUM

11+ years LONG

Total est. or actual yield

Vacant Signif. const.

Total supply

Broadhectare LDRZ 0 6 10 81 0 97 0 50 147

Infill LDRZ & RLZ 54 14 7 12 6 93 36 50 179

Total LDRZ & RLZ 54 20 17 93 6 190 36 100 326

Key findings:

There are 17 lots currently in the approval/construction phase to be available in the short term.

There are 93 lots that are likely to be developed, or available to be developed within the next 3-10

years. 81 of these, or 87%, are in the Belverdere Drive Estate, in one ownership.

Following completion of the Belverdere Drive Estate, supply will rely on infill development.

There are substantial infill supply opportunities (54 lots) in the Belverdere Drive Estate due to the

original minimum lot size of 2.0ha being reduced through zone transition to 0.4ha. However, timing

and reliability of supply is dependent on individual landholder preference.

Of the total potential supply (326 lots), 6 require resolution of moderate to severe constraints.

Of the total potential supply (326 lots), 100 or 31% are significantly constrained and are unlikely to

form part of future supply.

There are 36 vacant lots identified, however these are generally being used in conjunction with

adjoining land which contains the primary dwelling, and are generally unavailable on the market as

housing land supply opportunities. These lots may also be located within current projected

inundation areas as shown within the current planning scheme LSIO maps.

The revised inundation areas changes expectations regarding the development potential of many

Rural Living lots (with areas previously considered at risk now deemed lower risk, and vice versa).

New dwelling land supply other than Belverdere Drive for residents in the RLZ and LDRZ market

relies on small-lot infill opportunities. Excluding Belverdere Drive and significantly constrained lots,

there a are approximately 39 potential lots available through subdivision, and an additional 36

vacant lots generally being used in conjunction with adjoining landholdings.

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6.3 INTENSIFICATION

Medium density housing development has typically relied on owner investors instigating redevelopment of

individual lots with units following dwelling demolition. Opportunities for this type of intensification are

extensive, yet not directed.

A standard ¼ acre lot can yield 3 to 4 medium density (single story) units based on the above model.

Currently the Colac Framework Plan identifies areas for infill development and consolidation close to the

town centre, excluding heritage overlay areas. Assessment of these areas identified few notable

opportunities for intensification based on existing development and subdivision patterns, with the exception

of Forbes St. However, opportunities in this street are likely to require demolition of period homes which are

valued in the real estate market and may preclude infill development.

Improved design outcomes for medium density outcomes generally derive from combined allotments due to

areas set aside for access, parking and setbacks as required by clause 55 & 56 planning provisions. Colac has

experienced few innovative design outcomes for medium density housing. There is potential to introduce

planning led initiatives to shift expected design parameters and increase medium density supply.

Notably, almost all unit development in the town comprises single-story dwellings, and we surmise the

increase in medium density housing is predominantly catering for an aging demographic. There are two

assisted living retirement facilities in Colac: Barongarook Gardens in Murray Street and Mercy Place in

Queen Street. The Balnagowan retirement village is currently being constructed with planning approval

granted for 66 units in total (of which 6 have been completed). Final completion of the facility is unknown.

Assessment of the adequacy of these facilities in terms of supply and demand and the needs of the ageing

population has not been undertaken and merits further attention.

Similarly the CBD and commercial zones are outside the scope of this assessment, however opportunities

for combining housing or visitor accommodation above shops could both contribute to future housing

supply and increase vibrancy within the town centre.

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7. SUPPLY & PROJECTED DEMAND The Housing Needs Assessment (Southern Cross Planning) estimates:

60 new dwellings per year will be required to meet the housing needs of Colac based on recent

trends.

To achieve the aspirational 2050 target of 20,000 persons, 86 dwellings per year will be required.

Currently the trend for medium density housing is at 14.5%, trending upwards to 25% by 2050.

Based on the findings of this residential land supply assessment:

Over the next 2 years (to 2018) 135 new GRZ1 lots are likely to be available, which will meet the

current housing needs of 60 per year (excluding medium density development). An additional 17

LDRZ/RLZ lots will cater for low density lot demand.

From 3-10 years (to 2026) there is likely to be 413 lots (GRZ1) available for housing (averaging 51.6

lots per annum over 8 years). Demand may exceed supply during this period based on current

conditions. Demand is likely to exceed supply during this period if the higher growth target of 86

dwellings per year is achieved.

Alternatively, demand may change market conditions and force resolution of constraints, which will

enable previously undevelopable land to become available.

Land supply for housing beyond 2026 is currently uncertain. For the aspirational target of 86

dwellings per year to be achieved, from 2026 to 2050, 2064 dwellings will be constructed. Assuming

20% medium density infill within existing land supply and the balance requiring new lot supply, 1651

new lots will be required.

Supply within current residential zones will require:

o Extension of the sewer district, particularly to enable subdivision of the Rifle Butts Road

land (reference area 1 - GRZ1), which could enable supply of up to 462 lots.

o Strategy for drainage and stormwater infrastructure in low lying areas (currently being

undertaken)

o Council led subdivision design outcomes for DPO infill areas.

Even if the above moderate to severe constraints are resolved and the ‘long term’ lots (748) are

supplied, there will be a shortage of supply of 903 lots, requiring additional 75 ha of land supply at a

lot yield rate of 12/hectare, or 60ha at 15/ha.

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8. APPENDICES 8.1 LAND ASSESSMENT REFERENCE AREA MAPS

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8.2 BARWON WATER SEWER DISTRICT MAP (COLAC STRUCTURE PLAN)

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8.3 CURRENT LSIO COLAC/ELLIMINYT

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8.4 UPDATED 1% AEP INUNDATION EXTENT BARONGAROOK & DEANS CREEK

CATCHMENTS

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8.5 LAND SUPPLY TABLES

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