colac residential housing land supply assessment · be an existing zoned residential lot capacity...
TRANSCRIPT
COLAC RESIDENTIAL HOUSING LAND SUPPLY ASSESSMENT COLAC OTWAY SHIRE MAY 2016
Rod Bright & Associates Pty Ltd
Land Development Services
26 Murray St Colac 3250
Ph (03) 5231 4883 Mob 0415 635 420
COLAC HOUSING LAND SUPPLY ASSESSMENT FINAL REPORT ROD BRIGHT & ASSOCIATES PTY. LTD. Page 1
CONTENTS
1. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY ....................................................................................................................... 2
2. INTRODUCTION .................................................................................................................................. 3
2.1 SCOPE .............................................................................................................................................. 3
2.2 COLAC 2050...................................................................................................................................... 4
3. BACKGROUND .................................................................................................................................... 5
3.1 G21 REGIONAL GROWTH PLAN ....................................................................................................... 5
3.2 PLANNING POLICY CONTEXT.......................................................................................................... 5
3.3 PREVIOUS LAND SUPPLY ESTIMATES ............................................................................................ 5
3.4 BUILDING APPROVALS & TRENDS .................................................................................................. 7
3.5 RESIDENTIAL ZONES & SUBDIVISION ............................................................................................. 8
4. METHODOLOGY & ASSUMPTIONS.................................................................................................. 10
4.1 RESIDENTIAL LAND SUPPLY TYPES ............................................................................................... 11
4.2 RESIDENTIAL LAND DEVELOPMENT TIMING ............................................................................... 12
4.3 PROJECTED DEMAND .................................................................................................................... 12
4.4 CONSTRAINTS to SUBDIVISION AND DEVELOPMENT .................................................................. 13
5. HOUSING LAND ASSESSMENT ........................................................................................................ 14
5.1 BROADHECTARE SITES ................................................................................................................. 14
5.2 INFILL SITES ................................................................................................................................... 24
5.3 INTENSIFICATION ........................................................................................................................... 33
6. FINDINGS SUMMARY ....................................................................................................................... 35
6.1 GENERAL RESIDENTIAL ZONE ...................................................................................................... 35
6.2 RLZ & LDRZ .................................................................................................................................... 36
6.3 INTENSIFICATION ........................................................................................................................... 37
7. SUPPLY & PROJECTED DEMAND ..................................................................................................... 38
8. APPENDICES ..................................................................................................................................... 39
8.1 LAND ASSESSMENT REFERENCE AREA MAPS .............................................................................. 39
8.2 BARWON WATER SEWER DISTRICT MAP ....................................................................................... 40
8.3 CURRENT LSIO COLAC/ELLIMINYT ................................................................................................ 41
8.4 UPDATED INUNDATION EXTENT BARONGAROOK & DEANS CREEK CATCHMENTS ................... 42
8.5 LAND SUPPLY TABLES ................................................................................................................... 43
COLAC HOUSING LAND SUPPLY ASSESSMENT FINAL REPORT ROD BRIGHT & ASSOCIATES PTY. LTD. Page 2
1. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Excluding areas of existing development, Colac and Elliminyt contains 740.65 hectares of potential housing
supply land. Of this land, 164.4 hectares is zoned General Residential 1, of which 128.2 hectares or 77.9% is
constrained from subdivision and development by one or more factors. Low Density Residential or Rural
Living zoned land combined comprises 576 hectares, of which 57.5 hectares (9.9%) is unconstrained
greenfield land, with the balance constrained from subdivision and development by one or more factors, or
relying on infill subdivision for land supply.
This land supply assessment has identified four major constraints to residential subdivision:
1) Extensive areas subject to inundation;
2) Extent of current sewer district;
3) Availability and viability of storm-water infrastructure and limitations caused by flat land gradients
which also impacts provision of sewer infrastructure; and
4) Historic ad-hoc development patterns necessitating strategic planning direction to achieve successful
subdivision design outcomes.
Key findings of the report include:
Unconstrained lot supply opportunities in the GRZ1 are likely to respond to current demand in the
short term (approximately 2 years to 2018).
In the medium term (from 3-10 years (to 2026)) there is likely to be 413 lots (GRZ1) available for
housing (averaging 51.6 lots per annum over 8 years). Housing demand may exceed supply during
this period based on current supply conditions. Housing demand is likely to exceed land supply
during this period if the higher Colac 2050 growth target of 86 dwellings per year is achieved.
Land supply for housing beyond 2026 is currently uncertain. Supply within current residential zones
will require resolution of major constraints as noted above.
Even if the above major constraints are resolved, based on the higher growth target, from 2026-
2050 there will be a shortage of supply of 903 lots, requiring additional 75 ha of land supply at a lot
yield rate of 12/hectare, or 60ha at 15/ha. If the above constraints are not resolved, additional land
will be required.
Excluding the Belverdere Drive Estate, land supply in the LDRZ and RLZ relies solely on small-lot
infill subdivision or sale of vacant lots by individual landholders.
Opportunities to resolve constraints and increase lot supply to cater for current growth trends and
aspirational Colac 2050 growth targets are discussed further within the report.
Report Author: Katy Bright
V1 First draft 29 May 2016
V2 Amended draft 02 June 2016
Final 08 June 2016
COLAC HOUSING LAND SUPPLY ASSESSMENT FINAL REPORT ROD BRIGHT & ASSOCIATES PTY. LTD. Page 3
2. INTRODUCTION 2.1 SCOPE
Colac Otway Shire has engaged Rod Bright & Associates Pty Ltd to prepare a housing supply land
assessment to ascertain the potential lot and associated dwelling yield for Colac (including Elliminyt) under
current conditions in the context of residential land use zones and identification of constraints.
The assessment will provide support for a Housing Needs Assessment, currently being undertaken by Colac
Otway Shire (Southern Cross Town Planning Pty Ltd), to form an accurate picture of projected demand for
housing as part of the wider Colac 2050 Project.
The study reviews subdivision and lot yield with associated dwelling potential within the General Residential
1 Zone, Low Density Residential Zone and Rural Living Zones.
Figure 1: Extracted map of land use zones, Colac & Elliminyt, Colac Otway Planning Scheme http://services.land.vic.gov.au/maps/pmo.jsp
COLAC HOUSING LAND SUPPLY ASSESSMENT FINAL REPORT ROD BRIGHT & ASSOCIATES PTY. LTD. Page 4
2.2 COLAC 2050
Colac 2050 is a long range planning project by Colac Otway Shire supported by state government and the
Geelong (G12) Region Alliance as part of their Geelong G21 Regional Growth Plan, to encourage industry,
employment and housing creation to facilitate an aspirational increase in population to 20,000 people in the
city of Colac over the next 3-4 decades.
Drivers for population growth include the Princes Highway duplication, which, combined with improved rail
services will facilitate more viable commuting. With improved access to existing available services, capacity
to increase commercial and industrial expansion, and Colac’s existing location as a gateway to the Otways
and Great Ocean Road, residential demand is expected, and will be encouraged, to increase.
This housing land supply assessment provides background data for Colac Otway Shire to appropriately plan
to ensure available land supply caters for projected housing needs over the forecast period.
COLAC HOUSING LAND SUPPLY ASSESSMENT FINAL REPORT ROD BRIGHT & ASSOCIATES PTY. LTD. Page 5
3. BACKGROUND 3.1 G21 REGIONAL GROWTH PLAN
The G21 Regional Growth Plan (April 2013) provides an umbrella strategic plan for Geelong and surrounding
member municipalities, to which the Colac 2050 project forms a localised supporting component. The plan
anticipates and plans for significant growth in the wider region, setting out infrastructure and
implementation strategies to provide capacity for a population of 500,000 people over the same timeframe.
Key elements of the plan include providing for longer term additional growth in Colac and Winchelsea. Key
infrastructure projects and key project work are identified. In relation to residential growth, the plan directs:
Take up of existing areas identified in the Colac Structure Plan;
Potential town expansion to south and west (ahead of growth at other centres – focus on broader range
of housing options) include potential take up of LDRZ/RLZ land;
Investigate infill opportunities around town centre.
3.2 PLANNING POLICY CONTEXT
Ensuring a sufficient supply of urban land is supported by the State Planning Policy Framework within Clause
11 – Settlement. Strategies within this policy seek to:
Ensure the ongoing provision of land and supporting infrastructure to support sustainable urban
development.
Ensure that sufficient land is available to meet forecast demand.
Plan to accommodate projected population growth over at least a 15 year period and provide clear
direction on locations where growth should occur.
Monitor development trends and land supply and demand for housing and industry.
Restrict low-density rural residential development that would compromise future development at
higher densities.
Planning must consider Victorian Government population projections and land supply estimates, as guided
DTPLI has provided recent population projections through its Victoria in Focus (VIF) project in 2015.
3.3 PREVIOUS LAND SUPPLY ESTIMATES
3.2.1 COLAC STRUCTURE PLAN RESIDENTIAL LAND STRATEGY 2005
The Colac Structure Plan (2006, Colac Otway Shire & Connell Wagner), included a Residential Land Strategy
which was incorporated into the Colac Otway Planning Scheme by Amendment C55 in 2008. At exhibition
the strategy gave recommendations to include areas of future residential land within the Structure Plan.
However, submissions to the C55 panel were made regarding the simplistic and unrealistic estimates of land
supply within the Colac and Elliminyt area. The panel considered these submissions and made
recommendations to Colac Otway Shire to undertake a detailed analysis, which resulted in removal of the
future residential land recommendations.
COLAC HOUSING LAND SUPPLY ASSESSMENT FINAL REPORT ROD BRIGHT & ASSOCIATES PTY. LTD. Page 6
Projected growth based on a desktop analysis from the G21 (Geelong Region Alliance) Growth Plan in 2005
resulted in a revised land supply estimate within the Structure Plan, as noted in the following extract (p73):
3.2.2 G21 RESIDENTIAL LAND SUPPLY MONITORING PROJECT 2013
The suggested residential land supply as described in the Colac Structure Plan in 2005 were refined
downwards by the G21 – Geelong Region Alliance as part of their Residential Land Supply Monitoring
Project (2013 – Spatial Economics).
Relevant key findings included:
From July 2006 – July 2012, an average of 82 dwellings per annum were constructed in Colac (SLA), (p6);
The average annual projected demand for Colac (SLA) from, 2011-2031 is 111 dwellings per annum
(including rural residential development – RLZ and LDRZ);
The total lot requirement (for residential zoned lots) from 2013-2031 is 1173; and
As of March 2013 there was deemed to be an existing zoned residential lot capacity of 1136 lots (based on
zoned broad hectare and available infill development) which will satisfy 18 years of future demand in
Colac and Elliminyt. If historic trend based demand figures are substituted for projected growth, there will
be an existing zoned residential lot capacity of 25 years (p8).
The project report also indicates:
Of the 1136 capacity, 139 of these will be provided by minor infill supply (lots with parent titles of less
than 5000m2);
From July 2006 to March 2013 broad hectare and infill lot construction averaged 36 lots per annum for
Colac/Elliminyt (pp19-20), however the report noted the cyclical pattern of lot releases with some years
exceeding 100 lots and other years substantially reducing to substantially less than 30.
COLAC HOUSING LAND SUPPLY ASSESSMENT FINAL REPORT ROD BRIGHT & ASSOCIATES PTY. LTD. Page 7
Map 4 of the report shows the areas analysed and timing of projected lot supply, and the accompanying
table (p33) describes the anticipated timing:
Completed
(2013)
1-2 years
2013-2014
3-5 years
2015-2018
6-10 years
2019-2023
11+ years
2024+
No timing Total
112 140 351 310 223 1136
The above findings did not give recognition or weight to constraints which are significant in the local
context.
3.4 BUILDING APPROVALS & TRENDS
The recent Colac Housing Needs Assessment (2016, p7, Southern Cross Planning) summarises Colac Otway
Shire dwelling construction data and current construction rate since the 2011 census.
The annual dwelling construction figures vary from the G21 2013 figures due to discrepancies between
census data, statistical areas and recorded building approval data.
“In 2011 there were 5,262 private dwellings in the Colac urban area. This is an increase of 809 dwellings from
1991, and averaging 40 new dwellings per annum across the period. However, over the most recent period
where statistical data is available (2006-2011), 320 new dwellings were constructed. This averages at 64 new
dwellings per annum, a marked increase over the 20-year trend.
Of these dwellings, a slight variation of composition is noted. In 1991 – 2011 the number of separate house
dwellings has remained relatively steady, at 87-88% of the total. The number of medium density dwellings
has proportionally increased over the period from 10% to 12%. During the 1991 – 1996 period 30 medium
density dwellings were constructed, or an average of 6 per annum. However, during the 2006 – 2011 period,
82 dwellings were constructed, an average of over 16 per annum.
From 2011 to 2016 the records indicated that a total of 272 dwellings have been completed in the study area.
This averages at 60 per annum, similar to the number of dwellings per annum between 2006 -2011. The
interesting result was that 14.5% of new dwellings were classified as medium density dwellings, above the
recent 12% during the 2006 – 2011 period. Data is not available on the number of bedrooms in the medium
density dwellings.”
Table 3: Dwelling Construction August 2011 – February 2016
Colac 2011 - 2016
Dwelling type
Dwellings 233
Medium density 39
Total Private Dwellings 272
Source : Colac Otway Shire Building Department records
COLAC HOUSING LAND SUPPLY ASSESSMENT FINAL REPORT ROD BRIGHT & ASSOCIATES PTY. LTD. Page 8
3.5 RESIDENTIAL ZONES & SUBDIVISION
Currently, three residential zones are applied variously in Colac:
GENERAL RESIDENTIAL 1 ZONE
General Residential 1 Zone (GRZ1) applies to the majority of traditional residential areas and is the primary
zone applied to areas available for residential development. There is no minimum lot size for subdivision,
and the schedule 1 to the zone has not been modified for the local context. A subdivision must meet the
objectives of clause 56 – Residential Subdivision, which has a range of objectives, with its purpose being:
To implement the State Planning Policy Framework and the Local Planning Policy Framework,
including the Municipal Strategic Statement and local planning policies;
To create livable and sustainable neighbourhoods and urban places with character and identity;
To achieve residential subdivision outcomes that appropriately respond to the site and its context for:
o Metropolitan Melbourne growth areas,
o Infill sites within established residential areas,
o Regional cities and towns.
To ensure residential subdivision design appropriately provides for:
o Policy implementation,
o Livable and sustainable communities,
o Residential lot design,
o Urban landscape,
o Access and mobility management,
o Integrated water management,
o Site management
o Utilities.
The majority of land and housing take-up in Colac until 2050 is expected to be in GRZ1 areas. Typically lots
created for single dwellings have been historically in the range of 700-900 m2; more recent and current
demand figures an average around 700m2; based on regional growth in high demand areas such as
Warnambool and Armstrong Creek, 450-700m2 will normalise in Colac into the future. The higher lot yield
will be offset by localised constraints causing larger lots in infill areas.
LOW DENSITY RESIDENTIAL ZONE
Low Density Residential Zone (LDRZ) applies currently to three separate locations in Elliminyt: the Belvedere
Drive Estate to the south-east of the town; Christies Road to the south-west, and a number of blocks north-
east of Irrewillipe Road and Armstrong Street.
A minimum lot size of 0.4 hectares applies to areas where reticulated sewerage is not available, or, if
available, the minimum lot size is reduced to 0.2 hectares. The purpose of the zone is:
To implement the State Planning Policy Framework and the Local Planning Policy Framework,
including the Municipal Strategic Statement and local planning policies;
To provide for low-density residential development on lots which, in the absence of reticulated
sewerage, can treat and retain all waste-water.
COLAC HOUSING LAND SUPPLY ASSESSMENT FINAL REPORT ROD BRIGHT & ASSOCIATES PTY. LTD. Page 9
RURAL LIVING ZONE
Rural Living Zone (RLZ) applies to the intervening flat land between elevated residential areas in Elliminyt
and Colac. Open low-density housing reflects limitations of minimal land gradients causing natural restraints
in stormwater dispersal and significant areas subject to inundation. Rural Living Zoned land west of the
Colac-Lavers Hill Road is outside the reticulated sewerage network. Rural Living Zoned land east of the
Colac Lavers Hill Road is inside the sewer district but is also subject to inundation and engineering challenges
for stormwater and sewer connections due to minimal land gradients.
The schedule to the RLZ specifies a minimum subdivision lot size of 1.2 hectares for Elliminyt.
The purpose of the zone is:
To implement the State Planning Policy Framework and the Local Planning Policy Framework,
including the Municipal Strategic Statement and local planning policies;
To provide for residential use in a rural environment;
To provide for agricultural land uses which do not adversely affect the amenity of surrounding areas;
To protect and enhance the natural resources, biodiversity and landscape and heritage values of the
area;
To encourage use and development of the land based on comprehensive and sustainable land
management practices and infrastructure provision.
COLAC HOUSING LAND SUPPLY ASSESSMENT FINAL REPORT ROD BRIGHT & ASSOCIATES PTY. LTD. Page 10
4. METHODOLOGY & ASSUMPTIONS Methodology for providing an estimate of potential lot yield and housing supply has been based on
identification of relevant land supply types, measuring land area, excluding undevelopable areas,
appropriating take-outs for public open space, roads and service infrastructure, and applying a lot yield
range. For infill development areas, the lot yield has been estimated based on the minimum lot size where
applicable and other factors described above.
Sites may comprise individual or multiple parcels.
Land area is estimated using online tools such as provided on Victorian Government land data
interactive site: https://www.spear.land.vic.gov.au/lassi/SpearUI.jsp
Development areas are estimated using aerial imagery and mapping. These areas exclude LSIO and
existing development, as noted.
Public open space on-site take-outs are based on public open space provision of up to 10% of land
area as per the schedule to clause 52.01 of the scheme, and consideration of Colac Otway Shire’s
Public Open Space Strategy (2011). For infill development public open space is likely to be provided
as a monetary contribution.
Road area take-outs are based on the draft IDP generally requiring 18m width enabling verge space
including best practice environmental stormwater management design.
Lot yield is determined by consideration of:
o Minimum lot size or average lot size or expected lot yield range for broadacre subdivision
o Approved or drafted subdivision design when available
o Estimation having regard to the above base take-outs and area capacity
o Calculations are rounded up or down to nearest whole number.
o Constraint rating.
Existing development area was not measured for infill Rural Living as land supply potential is
determined by minimum lot size.
LAND SUBJECT TO INUNDATION
Historically the intervening areas between Elliminyt and Colac have been subject to inundation along the
Barongarook Creek and Deans Creek catchments. Flood and inundation modeling has previously identified
these areas based on projections for the 1 in 100 year ARI flood event as determined by the floodplain
management authority, and reflected by application of the Land Subject to Inundation Overlay.
Inundation areas for this assessment are based on recent revised mapping by BMT WBM on behalf of
DEWLP. The refined mapping is shown in the aerial image thumbnails for each assessment reference area.
Area (land size) subject to inundation is estimated using MapWinGIS. Full maps of the current LSIO and
revised extents are shown in Appendices 8.3 and 8.4.
Areas affected by LSIO locally have been deemed generally unsuitable for development in consideration of
free passage and temporary storage of floodwaters and local drainage conditions. This land supply
assessment has reflected this approach by classifying LSIO land as ‘significantly constrained’ with potential
lot yield assessed but with no timeframe expectation of supply, in recognition that engineering design with
earthworks and drainage works can resolve inundation issues, dependent on market and economic factors.
COLAC HOUSING LAND SUPPLY ASSESSMENT FINAL REPORT ROD BRIGHT & ASSOCIATES PTY. LTD. Page 11
4.1 RESIDENTIAL LAND SUPPLY TYPES
Refer to Appendix 8.1 for maps indicating location of land supply types and reference sites.
BROADHECTARE
Broadhectare sites are:
Supply land generally with a development area of 2 ha or greater.
Sites are further denoted as ‘greenfield’ where there is an absence of constraining existing
development.
INFILL
Infill sites are:
Supply land generally less than 2 ha (GRZ1) with surrounding development present and further lot
yield potential, or
Lots identified as small lot subdivision opportunities, such as existing lots with dual frontage; or
Land in the RLZ or LDRZ with further subdivision potential in context of applicable minimum lot
sizes.
INTENSIFICATION
Sites identified in the current urban residential environment with potential for intensification of housing
supply through either small lot subdivision or medium density development.
Sites appropriate for demolition and renewal are not identified as part of the assessment.
VACANT
Site identified as individual vacant allotments through aerial imagery and verified through site
confirmation.
Excludes recently released subdivisions yet to be developed (these are classified as ‘completed’ in
the lot yield assessment.
Identification of vacant lots are limited to those within assessment reference areas. There are likely
to be additional vacant lots within established residential areas.
COLAC HOUSING LAND SUPPLY ASSESSMENT FINAL REPORT ROD BRIGHT & ASSOCIATES PTY. LTD. Page 12
4.2 RESIDENTIAL LAND DEVELOPMENT TIMING
Estimated timing for land supply within this report:
Completed Statement of compliance imminent, or titles recently issued. Although these lots may be vacant, they are differentiated from vacant land within existing supply.
1-2 years Permit application current or permit issued, certification process under the Subdivision Act current.
3-10 years: No constraints, or minimal constraints which do not necessarily restrict housing development.
11+ years: Dependent on external factors, such as extension of sewer district, but likely to be resolved over time, or minor constraints which require resolution for housing development to proceed. Staged lot releases for large scale broad hectare subdivision
Significantly constrained
Requires resolution of complex issues such as inundation/flood overlay, agreements between multiple separate landholders, or unable to be serviced or accessed with no current foreseeable change in situation.
No timing Existing vacant lots held as part of multiple parcels in one ownership with primary dwelling on one of these parcels. Infill subdivision requiring dwelling excision instigated by individual landholders.
4.3 PROJECTED DEMAND
Colac Otway Shire’s Housing Needs Assessment (2016 draft) provides three growth scenarios for population
and total dwellings commencing from 2011 ABS datasets. The report notes the different scenarios provide
significant variations in total population and dwelling needs.
The report concludes (p24 draft):
“…it is estimated that 60 new dwellings per year will be required to meet the housing needs of Colac. If
Council seeks to reach the aspirational 2050 target of 20,000 persons, then 86 new dwellings are
required per annum.
COLAC HOUSING LAND SUPPLY ASSESSMENT FINAL REPORT ROD BRIGHT & ASSOCIATES PTY. LTD. Page 13
4.4 CONSTRAINTS TO SUBDIVISION AND DEVELOPMENT
Supply of residential land within Colac is currently constrained in many locations by various significant
factors. Part of the brief of this project is to identify these constraints to ascertain a more accurate
calculation of lot yield beyond the base zoning potential of land.
Constraints are a caused by a mix of topographical, servicing and land use factors, and are summarised
below. The constraint rating is a subjective assessment of the potential to resolve constraints and enable
maximum lot yield for housing supply.
Constraint
Outside current reticulated sewerage district
Within reticulated sewerage district but low lying land unable to be serviced due to land gradients without significant engineering infrastructure
Inundation (LSIO) overlays
Stormwater & drainage issues unable to be resolved without substantial infrastructure costs
Infill subdivision opportunities reliant on consensus between multiple neighbouring land holders and sequential subdivision and development; (such as in some areas affected by Development Plan Overlays)
Existing development pattern limiting subdivision opportunities, by constraining access and road construction opportunities.
Heritage Overlay (infill)
Topography – steep slopes limiting usable land
Market – economic or social factors,
Planning review
Constraint Rating
Severe – unable to be resolved or unlikely to be resolved within 10-15 years
Moderate – likely to be resolved with future funding, strategy and/or negotiation, or change in market conditions
Low – solution anticipated or work underway to resolve constraint
No impact - constraints in area with no impact to lot/housing supply
COLAC HOUSING LAND SUPPLY ASSESSMENT FINAL REPORT ROD BRIGHT & ASSOCIATES PTY. LTD. Page 14
5. HOUSING LAND ASSESSMENT 5.1 BROADHECTARE SITES
BROADHECTARE GRZ1
1. Rifle Butts Rd/Murray Street/Lake Colac/Zone Boundary (Broadhectare-Greenfield) GRZ1
Total land area
Land area excluding existing d’ment
Lot yield un-constrained areas
Vacant lots un-constrained
Lot supply range/notes
43.6 ha 30.8 ha Vegetation also excluded
n/a 0 Lot yield potential up to 15/ha - shelter belts may be incorporated into POS
Constraint Constraint rating
Area constrained
Lot yield constrained
Vacant lots constrained
Outside reticulated sewerage district
43.6ha 462 n/a
DPO2 – Requires overall design between a number of landholders across 13 titles.
43.6ha
part DDO9 – no constraint to supply
8.6ha
Forecast d’ment timing/lots/supply
No timing Completed
1-2 years 3-10 years
11+ years
Total est. or actual yield
Vacant Signif. const.
Total supply
462 462 0 462
2. Murray Street – previous High School site (Broadhectare- Greenfield) GRZ1
Total land area
Land area excluding existing d’ment
Lot yield un-constrained areas
Vacant lots un-constrained
Lot supply range/notes
n/a 5 ha 0 Part of site subject to future scheme amendment to change zone from current PUZ1 to GRZ1. Lot yield potential 12/ha.
Constraint Constraint rating
Area constrained
Lot yield constrained
Vacant lots constrained
Amendment and sale process
5 ha 60
Forecast d’ment timing/lots/supply
No timing Completed
1-2 years 3-10 years
11+ years
Total est. or actual yield
Vacant Signif. Constr.
Total supply
60 60 0 60
COLAC HOUSING LAND SUPPLY ASSESSMENT FINAL REPORT ROD BRIGHT & ASSOCIATES PTY. LTD. Page 15
3. Jennings Street – (Broadhectare) GRZ1
Total land area
Land area excluding existing d’ment
Lot yield un-constrained areas
Vacant lots un-constrained
Lot supply range/notes
5.7ha 4.0 ha 0 Lot yield potential 10/ha due to access/existing development
Constraint Constraint rating
Area constrained
Lot yield constrained
Vacant lots constrained
DPO2 – Requires approval of overall plan across 6 titles .
5.7ha 40
Forecast development timing/lots/supply
No timing Completed
1-2 years 3-10 years
11+ years
Total est. or actual yield
Vacant Signif const.
Total supply
40 40 0 40
4. Imperial Drive – (Broadhectare-Greenfield) GRZ1
Total land area
Land area excluding existing d’ment
Lot yield un-constrained areas
Vacant lots un-constrained
Lot supply range/notes
3.2ha 3.2ha 31 1 Lot yield based on estimated design
Constraint Constraint rating
Area constrained
Lot yield constrained
Vacant lots constrained
Forecast d’ment timing/lots/supply
No timing Completed
1-2 years 3-10 years
11+ years
Total est. or actual yield
Vacant Signif. Const.
Total supply
10 8 13 31 1 32
8. Cants Rd/Wilson St/Sinclair St Sth/Hearn St – (Broadhectare-Greenfield) GRZ1
Total land area
Land area excluding existing d’ment
Lot yield un-constrained areas
Vacant lots un-constrained
Lot supply range/notes
9.0ha 7.2ha 5- Sinclair St South
1 10 lots per hectare estimated if constraints were resolved to allow for land set aside for directed drainage diversion works
Constraint Constraint rating
Area constrained
Lot yield constrained
Vacant lots constrained
LSIO, access to lots in LSIO
5.0 ha 50 0
Stormwater/Sewer main extension costs
2.2 ha excl.LSIO
17
DPO2 - Requires Council approval of plan/design across multiple titles and developer instigation.
5.2 ha
Hearn Street construction servicing
COLAC HOUSING LAND SUPPLY ASSESSMENT FINAL REPORT ROD BRIGHT & ASSOCIATES PTY. LTD. Page 16
Forecast d’ment timing/lots/supply
No timing Completed
1-2 years 3-10 years
11+ years
Total est. or actual yield
Vacant Signif. Constrained
Total supply
5 17 22 1 50 73
9. Hearn St/Sinclair St Sth/Armstrong St – (Broadhectare-Greenfield) GRZ1
Total land area
Land area excluding existing d’ment
Lot yield un-constrained areas
Vacant lots un-constrained
Lot supply range/notes
9.9ha 9.54ha 2 10 lots/hectare within LSIO estimated if constraints resolved to set aside land for directed drainage diversion works. 10 lots/hectare for DPO2.
Constraint Constraint rating
Area constrained
Lot yield constrained
Vacant lots constrained
LSIO
5.1ha 51 0
DPO2 - Requires Council approval of plan/design across multiple titles and developer instigation.
9.3ha 4.5 ha excl. LSIO
45
Hearn Street construction servicing
Forecast dment timing/lots/supply
No timing Completed
1-2 years 3-10 years
11+ years
Total est. or actual yield
Vacant Signif. constrained
Total supply
45 45 2 51 98
10. Pound Rd/Hearn St/Sinclair St Sth– (Broadhectare-Greenfield) GRZ1
Total land area
Land area excluding existing d’ment
Lot yield un-constrained areas
Vacant lots un-constrained
Lot supply range/notes
11.5ha 11.5ha 18 lots* 10 lots/hectare within LSIO est. if constraints resolved to set aside land for directed drainage diversion works. 13 lot subdivision from Pound Rd recently completed.
Constraint Constraint rating
Area constrained
Lot yield constrained
Vacant lots constrained
LSIO Hearn St LSIO provides access to unconstrained land*
7.8ha 60 +18* 0
Hearn Street construction servicing
Forecast d’ment timing/lots/supply
No timing Completed
1-2 years 3-10 years
11+ years
Total est. or actual yield
Vacant Signif. constrained
Total supply
13 13 78 91
COLAC HOUSING LAND SUPPLY ASSESSMENT FINAL REPORT ROD BRIGHT & ASSOCIATES PTY. LTD. Page 17
11. Aireys Street/Hart Street– (Broadhectare/Infill) GRZ1
Total land area
Land area excluding existing d’ment
Lot yield un-constrained areas
Vacant lots un-constrained
Lot supply range/notes
3.7ha 2.79ha Planning permit for 13 lot subdivision issued 161 Hart St
Constraint Constraint rating
Area constrained
Lot yield constrained
Vacant lots constrained
Sewer servicing/connection
1.6ha 17
Aireys Street construction servicing
Forecast d’ment timing/lots/supply
No timing Completed
1-2 years 3-10 years
11+ years
Total est. or actual yield
Vacant Signif. Constrained
Total supply
13 17 30 30
12. Aireys Street, Hart St, Main Street, Pound Road – (Broadhectare/Infill) GRZ1
Total land area
Land area excluding existing d’ment
Lot yield un-constrained areas
Vacant lots un-constrained
Lot supply range/notes
12.8ha 6.4ha 10 lots/ha estimated yield if access/design resolved
Constraint Constraint rating
Area constrained
Lot yield constrained
Vacant lots constrained
DPO2 – requires consensus between 26 separate landholders in relation to access and design.
6.4ha 64
Forecast d’ment timing/lots/supply
No timing Completed
1-2 years 3-10 years
11+ years
Total est. or actual yield
Vacant Signif. Constrained
Total supply
64 64 64
13. Irrewillipe Rd/Aireys Street/Hart St/Main Street,– (Broadhectare/Infill) GRZ1
Total land area
Land area excluding existing d’ment
Lot yield un-constrained areas
Vacant lots un-constrained
Lot supply range/notes
9.1ha 5.8ha 3 Aireys St 10 lots/ha estimated yield
Constraint Constraint rating
Area constrained
Lot yield constrained
Vacant lots constrained
DPO2 – Development plan (Area 4) approved. Relies on sequential subdivision & owner participation – 15 landholders.
5.8 ha 55
Forecast d’ment timing/lots/supply
No timing Completed
1-2 years 3-10 years
11+ years
Total est. or actual yield
Vacant Signif. Constrained
Total supply
3 27 28 58 58
COLAC HOUSING LAND SUPPLY ASSESSMENT FINAL REPORT ROD BRIGHT & ASSOCIATES PTY. LTD. Page 18
14. Ballagh St/Irrewillipe Rd/Hart St/Main Street– (Broadhectare/Infill) GRZ1
Total land area
Land area excluding existing d’ment
Lot yield un-constrained areas
Vacant lots un-constrained
Lot supply range/notes
8.3ha 6.7ha Lot yield estimated based on approved DPO plan and pattern of existing development.
Constraint Constraint rating
Area constrained
Lot yield constrained
Vacant lots constrained
DPO2 – Development plan (Area 5) approved for area. Relies on sequential development and owner participation – 16 landholders.
6.7ha 36 estimated
Forecast d’ment timing/lots/supply
No timing Completed
1-2 years 3-10 years
11+ years
Total est. or actual yield
Vacant Signif. Constrained
Total supply
36 36 36
16. Main St/Zone Boundary,– (Broadhectare-Greenfield) GRZ1
Total land area
Land area excluding existing d’ment
Lot yield un-constrained areas
Vacant lots un-constrained
Lot supply range/notes
2.3ha 2.3ha Planning permit granted for 25 lot subdivision
Constraint Constraint rating
Area constrained
Lot yield constrained
Vacant lots constrained
Forecast d’ment timing/lots/supply
No timing Completed
1-2 years 3-10 years
11+ years
Total est. or actual yield
Vacant Signif. constrained
Total supply
25 25 25
17. Main St/Pound Road/Zone Boundary– (Broadhectare-Brownfield) GRZ1
Total land area
Land area excluding existing d’ment*
Lot yield un-constrained areas
Vacant lots un-constrained
Lot supply range/notes
4.7ha 4.5ha 3 *residential development
Constraint Constraint rating
Area constrained
Lot yield constrained
Vacant lots constrained
Land used for farm supply business with associated buildings & works. Environmental audit may be required for residential development.
1.3ha 13
Colac Otway Shire works depot – zoning anomoly 2.7 0 Forecast d’ment timing/lots/supply
No timing Completed
1-2 years 3-10 years
11+ years
Total est. or actual yield
Vacant Signif. constrained
Total supply
3 13 16 16
COLAC HOUSING LAND SUPPLY ASSESSMENT FINAL REPORT ROD BRIGHT & ASSOCIATES PTY. LTD. Page 19
18. Hearn St/Rankin Street/Queen Street/Zone Boundary– (Broadhectare) GRZ1
Total land area
Land area excluding existing d’ment*
Lot yield un-constrained areas
Vacant lots un-constrained
Lot supply range/notes
2.6ha 2.14ha
Constraint Constraint rating
Area constrained
Lot yield constrained
Vacant lots constrained
Access and road network
2.14ha 16
Forecast d’ment timing/lots/supply
No timing Completed
1-2 years 3-10 years
11+ years
Total est. or actual yield
Vacant Signif. constrained
Total supply
8 8 16 16
19. Hearn St/Talbot Street/ Zone Boundary– (Broadhectare) GRZ1
Total land area
Land area excluding existing d’ment*
Lot yield un-constrained areas
Vacant lots un-constrained
Lot supply range/notes
5.0ha 3.8ha 16 Current planning application for 16 lot subdivision
Constraint Constraint rating
Area constrained
Lot yield constrained
Vacant lots constrained
LSIO
4.0ha 40-16=24
Talbot Street construction within waterway passage, Hearn street within LSIO
Forecast d’ment timing/lots/supply
No timing Completed
1-2 years 3-10 years
11+ years
Total est. or actual yield
Vacant Signif. constrained
Total supply
16 16 24 40 \
20. Hearn St/Fulton Street/ Zone Boundary– (Broadhectare) GRZ1
Total land area
Land area excluding existing d’ment*
Lot yield un-constrained areas
Vacant lots un-constrained
Lot supply range/notes
3.7ha 3.7ha 19 1 10 lots/ha reflecting density context Opportunity to extend road into rear of Talbot St existing lots.
Constraint Constraint rating
Area constrained
Lot yield constrained
Vacant lots constrained
LSIO
1.8ha 18
Talbot Street construction within waterway passage, Hearn Street within LSIO
Forecast d’ment timing/lots/supply
No timing Completed
1-2 years 3-10 years
11+ years
Total est. or actual yield
Vacant Signif. constrained
Total supply
1 19 20 18 38
COLAC HOUSING LAND SUPPLY ASSESSMENT FINAL REPORT ROD BRIGHT & ASSOCIATES PTY. LTD. Page 20
21. Howarth St/Hart St/Ballagh St– (Broadhectare/Infill) GRZ1
22. Howarth St/Harris Road– (Broadhectare/Infill) GRZ1
Total land area
Land area excluding existing d’ment*
Lot yield un-constrained areas
Vacant lots un-constrained
Lot supply range/notes
5.7ha 2.2ha 11 lots estimated by design and context
Constraint Constraint rating
Area constrained
Lot yield constrained
Vacant lots constrained
Existing development– limited infill capacity 2.2ha 11 Forecast d’ment timing/lots/supply
No timing Completed
1-2 years 3-10 years
11+ years
Total est. or actual yield
Vacant Signif. constrained
Total supply
11 11 11
25. Harris Road/Tulloh St/Dowling St– (Broadhectare -Infill) GRZ1
Total land area
Land area excluding existing d’ment*
Lot yield un-constrained areas
Vacant lots un-constrained
Lot supply range/notes
6.3ha 2.68ha 1 10 lot subdivision recently completed and dwellings under construction or completed. Planning permits issued for 6 + 5 + 8 lot subdivisions (19 lots total)
Constraint Constraint rating
Area constrained
Lot yield constrained
Vacant lots constrained
Drainage line to north east of reserve 1 Forecast d’ment timing/lots/supply
No timing Completed
1-2 years 3-10 years
11+ years
Total est. or actual yield
Vacant Signif. constrained
Total supply
1 10 19 30 1 31
Total land area
Land area excluding existing d’ment*
Lot yield un-constrained areas
Vacant lots un-constrained
Lot supply range/notes
2.4ha 1.2ha 7 9 lots estimated by design and context
Constraint Constraint rating
Area constrained
Lot yield constrained
Vacant lots constrained
Existing development & natural drainage basin – limited infill capacity
1.0ha 2
Howarth St topography – steep slopes Forecast d’ment timing/lots/supply
No timing Completed
1-2 years 3-10 years
11+ years
Total est. or actual yield
Vacant Signif. constrained
Total supply
2 7 9 9
COLAC HOUSING LAND SUPPLY ASSESSMENT FINAL REPORT ROD BRIGHT & ASSOCIATES PTY. LTD. Page 21
26. Harris Road/Dowling St– (Broadhectare-Infill) GRZ1
Total land area
Land area excluding existing d’ment*
Lot yield un-constrained areas
Vacant lots un-constrained
Lot supply range/notes
2.7ha 2.7ha 1
Constraint Constraint rating
Area constrained
Lot yield constrained
Vacant lots constrained
Stormwater infrastructure 2.7ha 9
Forecast d’ment timing/lots/supply
No timing Completed
1-2 years 3-10 years
11+ years
Total est. or actual yield
Vacant Signif. constrained
Total supply
9 9 9
27. Scanlan Drive/Wyuna Drive (Wyuna Estate)– (Broadhectare-greenfield) GRZ1
Total land area
Land area excluding existing d’ment*
Lot yield un-constrained areas
Vacant lots un-constrained
Lot supply range/notes
17.3ha 17.3ha 128 18 lot subdivision recently completed Planning permit issued for 110 lot staged subdivision Stages 1-2 42 lots underway Stages 3-6 68 lots 3-6 years
Constraint Constraint rating
Area constrained
Lot yield constrained
Vacant lots constrained
S7 in part relies on infrastructure connection from land within reference area 28.
4.57 38
Forecast d’ment timing/lots/supply
No timing Completed
1-2 years 3-10 years
11+ years
Total est. or actual yield
Vacant Signif. constrained
Total supply
18 42 68 38 166 166
28. Harris Road (Wyuna Estate extension)– (Broadhectare-greenfield) Pending GRZ1 Amendment C78
Total land area
Land area excluding existing d’ment*
Lot yield un-constrained areas
Vacant lots un-constrained
14.03ha 14.03ha 100 Assumes completion of Amendment C78 Lot yield estimated in reference to overall development plan. Lot timing estimated.
Constraint Constraint rating
Area constrained
Lot yield constrained
Vacant lots constrained
EMO along eastern boundary – constraint to lot size only Forecast d’ment timing/lots/supply
No timing Completed
1-2 years 3-10 years
11+ years
Total est. or actual yield
Vacant Signif. constrained
Total supply
50 50 100 100
COLAC HOUSING LAND SUPPLY ASSESSMENT FINAL REPORT ROD BRIGHT & ASSOCIATES PTY. LTD. Page 22
32. Bruce Street/McGonigal Street– (Broadhectare) GRZ1
Total land area
Land area excluding existing d’ment*
Lot yield un-constrained areas
Vacant lots un-constrained
Lot supply range/notes
5.9ha 4.5ha 54 *Area excludes COS former landfill site 12 lots per hectare lot yield
Constraint Constraint rating
Area constrained
Lot yield constrained
Vacant lots constrained
Zoning anomaly – COS former landfill site 1.4ha 0 Forecast d’ment timing/lots/supply
No timing Completed
1-2 years 3-10 years
11+ years
Total est. or actual yield
Vacant Signif. constrained
Total supply
54 54 54
COLAC HOUSING LAND SUPPLY ASSESSMENT FINAL REPORT ROD BRIGHT & ASSOCIATES PTY. LTD. Page 23
BROADHECTARE LDRZ
1. Belverdere Drive (Broadhectare) LDRZ min. lot size 0.4ha
Total land area
Land area excluding existing d’ment
Lot yield un-constrained areas
Vacant lots un-constrained
Lot supply range/notes
57.5 ha ha 0 Planning approval current for staged 97 lots.
Constraint Constraint rating
Area constrained
Lot yield constrained
Vacant lots constrained
n/a current permit
n/a
Forecast d’ment timing/lots/supply
No timing Completed
1-2 years 3-10 years
11+ years
Total est. or actual yield
Vacant Signif. constrained
Total supply
6 10 81 97 0 97
3. Christies Road (Broadhectare) LDRZ min. lot size 0.4ha
Total land area
Land area excluding existing d’ment
Lot yield un-constrained areas
Vacant lots un-constrained
Lot supply range/notes
40.0 ha 38.0ha Exclude 10% POS & 10% infrastructure. Median lot size of 0.6 ha. Potential yield 50.1 lots.
Constraint Constraint rating
Area constrained
Lot yield constrained
Vacant lots constrained
Planning review regarding application of zone current following VCAT determination?
all 50 0
Forecast dment timing/lots/supply
No timing Completed
1-2 years 3-10 years
11+ years
Total est. or actual yield
Vacant Signif. constrained
Total supply
0 0 50 50
COLAC HOUSING LAND SUPPLY ASSESSMENT FINAL REPORT ROD BRIGHT & ASSOCIATES PTY. LTD. Page 24
5.2 INFILL SITES
INFILL GRZ1
5. Cants Road – (infill) GRZ1
Total land area
Land area excluding existing d’ment
Lot yield un-constrained areas
Vacant lots un-constrained
Lot supply range/notes
1.4 ha 4500m2 Excludes church
4 Lot yield based on estimated design
Constraint Constraint rating
Area constrained
Lot yield constrained
Vacant lots constrained
Forecast d’ment timing/lots/supply
No timing Completed
1-2 years 3-10 years
11+ years
Total est. or actual yield
Vacant Signif Constrained
Total supply
4 4 0 4
6. Balnagowan – (infill) GRZ1
Total land area
Land area excluding existing d’ment
Lot yield un-constrained areas
Vacant lots un-constrained
Lot supply range/notes
1.6ha 1.43 Planning approval current for retirement village – 66 units, no subdivision. Refer to Section 6.3 - findings. Dwellings are considered medium density for purposes of this assessment and excluded from the lot/single dwelling assessment.
Constraint Constraint rating
Area constrained
Lot yield constrained
Vacant lots constrained
Heritage Overlay
Forecast development timing/lots/supply
No timing Completed
1-2 years 3-10 years
11+ years
Total est. or actual yield
Vacant Signif. constrained
Total supply
n/a n/a
COLAC HOUSING LAND SUPPLY ASSESSMENT FINAL REPORT ROD BRIGHT & ASSOCIATES PTY. LTD. Page 25
7. 12-16 Church Street – (infill) GRZ1
Total land area
Land area excluding existing d’ment
Lot yield un-constrained areas
Vacant lots un-constrained
Lot supply range/notes
1.1ha 4115m2 3 Dependant on current land use and planning requirements eg. parking
Constraint Constraint rating
Area constrained
Lot yield constrained
Vacant lots constrained
Forecast development timing/lots/supply
No timing Completed
1-2 years 3-10 years
11+ years
Total est. or actual yield
Vacant Signif. constained
Total supply
3 3 0 3
15. Main St/Zone Boundary– (Broadhectare- Brownfield) GRZ1
Total land area
Land area excluding existing d’ment
Lot yield un-constrained areas
Vacant lots un-constrained
Lot supply range/notes
1.5 ha 1.31ha
Constraint Constraint rating
Area constrained
Lot yield constrained
Vacant lots constrained
Stormwater connection/servicing/land gradient 6
Access & consenus between landholders Forecast d’ment timing/lots/supply
No timing Completed
1-2 years 3-10 years
11+ years
Total est. or actual yield
Vacant Signif. constrained
Total supply
6 6 6
23. Queen St/Zone Boundary– (Infill) GRZ1
Total land area
Land area excluding existing d’ment*
Lot yield un-constrained areas
Vacant lots un-constrained
Lot supply range/notes
6410m2 3 4 lot subdivision recently completed of which 1 lot contains an existing dwelling
Constraint Constraint rating
Area constrained
Lot yield constrained
Vacant lots constrained
Forecast d’ment timing/lots/supply
No timing Completed
1-2 years 3-10 years
11+ years
Total est. or actual yield
Vacant Signif. constrained
Total supply
3 3 3
COLAC HOUSING LAND SUPPLY ASSESSMENT FINAL REPORT ROD BRIGHT & ASSOCIATES PTY. LTD. Page 26
24. Beechy Court– (Infill) GRZ1
Total land area
Land area excluding existing d’ment*
Lot yield un-constrained areas
Vacant lots un-constrained
Lot supply range/notes
2.5ha 5000m2 1 Current development precludes further subdivision except possible creation of 1 lot fronting Beechy Court.
Constraint Constraint rating
Area constrained
Lot yield constrained
Vacant lots constrained
Forecast d’ment timing/lots/supply
No timing Completed
1-2 years 3-10 years
11+ years
Total est. or actual yield
Vacant Signif. constrained
Total supply
1 1 1
29. Church St/Polwarth St South/Wallace Street– (Infill) GRZ1
Total land area
Land area excluding existing d’ment*
Lot yield un-constrained areas
Vacant lots un-constrained
Lot supply range/notes
2.8ha 2.0ha 1 .
Constraint Constraint rating
Area constrained
Lot yield constrained
Vacant lots constrained
Telstra site depot – would require site contamination assessment and potential remedial works
8000m2
Access & consensus of 7 separate landholders 8 Forecast d’ment timing/lots/supply
No timing Completed
1-2 years 3-10 years
11+ years
Total est. or actual yield
Vacant Signif. constrained
Total supply
0 1 8 9
30. Cardell Court– (Infill) GRZ1
Total land area
Land area excluding existing d’ment*
Lot yield un-constrained areas
Vacant lots un-constrained
Lot supply range/notes
1.5ha 1.5ha 13
Constraint Constraint rating
Area constrained
Lot yield constrained
Vacant lots constrained
No constraints Forecast d’ment timing/lots/supply
No timing Completed
1-2 years 3-10 years
11+ years
Total est. or actual yield
Vacant Signif. constrained
Total supply
13 13 13
COLAC HOUSING LAND SUPPLY ASSESSMENT FINAL REPORT ROD BRIGHT & ASSOCIATES PTY. LTD. Page 27
31. Bruce Street– (Infill) GRZ1
Total land area
Land area excluding existing d’ment*
Lot yield un-constrained areas
Vacant lots un-constrained
Lot supply range/notes
1.4ha 8000m2 5
Constraint Constraint rating
Area constrained
Lot yield constrained
Vacant lots constrained
Access to rear adjoining land 1 Forecast d’ment timing/lots/supply
No timing Completed
1-2 years 3-10 years
11+ years
Total est. or actual yield
Vacant Signif. constrained
Total supply
1 5 6 6
33. McGonigal Street– (Infill) GRZ1
Total land area
Land area excluding existing d’ment*
Lot yield un-constrained areas
Vacant lots un-constrained
Lot supply range/notes
1.5ha 1.5ha
Constraint Constraint rating
Area constrained
Lot yield constrained
Vacant lots constrained
Zoning anomaly – former COS landfill site 1.5ha 0 Forecast d’ment timing/lots/supply
No timing Completed
1-2 years 3-10 years
11+ years
Total est. or actual yield
Vacant Signif. constrained
Total supply
0
COLAC HOUSING LAND SUPPLY ASSESSMENT FINAL REPORT ROD BRIGHT & ASSOCIATES PTY. LTD. Page 28
INFILL LDRZ
2. Belverdere Drive (infill) LDRZ min. lot size 0.4ha
Total land area
Land area excluding existing d’ment
Lot yield un-constrained areas
Vacant lots un-constrained
Lot supply range/notes
72.5 ha 54.46 ha 2 Estimated maximum lot yield based on aerial image assessment having regard to existing development. Lot supply subject to individual land holders excising lots and market factors. *constraints not fatal to housing supply availability
Constraint Constraint rating
Area constrained
Lot yield constrained
Vacant lots constrained
Market
All 54
EMO1 and other overlays – no constraint to supply
Forecast dment timing/lots/supply
No timing Completed
1-2 years 3-10 years
11+ years
Total est. or actual yield
Vacant Signif. constrained
Total supply
54 4 58 2 60
4. Armstrong/Aireys/Irrewillipe/Hart (infill) LDRZ min. lot size 0.4ha (0.2ha if sewer available)
Total land area
Land area excluding existing d’ment
Lot yield un-constrained areas
Vacant lots un-constrained
Lot supply range/notes
18.5 ha 6.39 ha 4 3 Estimated maximum lot yield based on aerial image assessment having regard to existing development *constraints not fatal to housing supply availability
Constraint Constraint rating
Area constrained
Lot yield constrained
Vacant lots constrained
Sewer connection unavailable (except to 214 Armstrong St)
14
Forecast d’ment timing/lots/supply
No timing Completed
1-2 years 3-10 years
11+ years
Total est. or actual yield
Vacant Signif. constrained
Total supply
2 4 6 6 18 3 21
COLAC HOUSING LAND SUPPLY ASSESSMENT FINAL REPORT ROD BRIGHT & ASSOCIATES PTY. LTD. Page 29
INFILL RLZ
5. Armstrong St/Spring St/Ballagh St/Zone Boundary (infill) RLZ min. lot size 1.2ha
Total land area
Land area excluding existing d’ment
Lot yield un-constrained areas
Vacant lots un-constrained
Lot supply range/notes
16.2 ha 2 0 additional lot yield supply at 1.2ha
Constraint Constraint rating
Area constrained
Lot yield constrained
Vacant lots constrained
LSIO
4ha 2
Forecast d’ment timing/lots/supply
No timing Completed
1-2 years 3-10 years
11+ years
Total est. or actual yield
Vacant Signif. constrained
Total supply
0 2 2 4
6. Armstrong St/Harris Rd/Irrewillipe Rd (infill) RLZ min. lot size 1.2ha
Total land area
Land area excluding existing d’ment
Lot yield un-constrained areas
Vacant lots un-constrained
Lot supply range/notes
62.6ha 12 0 lot yield capacity at 1.2ha
Constraint Constraint rating
Area constrained
Lot yield constrained
Vacant lots constrained
Land subject to Inundation (LSIO)
37ha 11
Forecast d’ment timing/lots/supply
No timing Completed
1-2 years 3-10 years
11+ years
Total est. or actual yield
Vacant Signif. constrained
Total supply
0 12 11 23
7. Sinclair St Sth/Pound Rd/Armstrong St/Irrewillipe Rd (infill) RLZ min. lot size 1.2ha
Total land area
Land area excluding existing d’ment
Lot yield un-constrained areas
Vacant lots un-constrained
Lot supply range/notes
32.9ha 0 0 lot yield capacity at 1.2ha
Constraint Constraint rating
Area constrained
Lot yield constrained
Vacant lots constrained
Land subject to Inundation (LSIO)
16.4 ha 0
Forecast d’ment timing/lots/supply
No timing
Completed 1-2 years 3-10 years 11+ years Total est. or actual yield
Vacant
Total supply
0 0
COLAC HOUSING LAND SUPPLY ASSESSMENT FINAL REPORT ROD BRIGHT & ASSOCIATES PTY. LTD. Page 30
8. Sinclair St Sth/Pound Rd/Aireys St/Zone Boundary (includes Cants Rd) (infill) RLZ min. lot size 1.2ha
Total land area
Land area excluding existing d’ment
Lot yield un-constrained areas
Vacant lots un-constrained
Lot supply range/notes
27.0ha 3.6ha 3 1 3 lots potential at 200 Cants Rd at 1.2ha
Constraint Constraint rating
Area constrained
Lot yield constrained
Vacant lots constrained
Land subject to Inundation (LSIO)
8.9 ha 0 0
Forecast d’ment timing/lots/supply
No timing
Completed 1-2 years 3-10 years 11+ years Total est. or actual yield
Vacant
Total supply
3 3 1 4
9. Irrewillipe Rd/Sinclair St Sth/Aireys St (infill) RLZ min. lot size 1.2ha
Total land area
Land area excluding existing d’ment
Lot yield un-constrained areas
Vacant lots un-constrained
Lot supply range/notes
45.3 ha 0 6 0 lot yield capacity at 1.2ha
Constraint Constraint rating
Area constrained
Lot yield constrained
Vacant lots constrained
Land subject to Inundation (LSIO)
25ha 0 8
Forecast d’ment timing/lots/supply
No timing Completed
1-2 years 3-10 years
11+ years
Total est. or actual yield
Vacant Signif. constrained
Total supply
0 6 8 14
10. Slater St/Tulloh St/Woodrowvale Rd/Zone Boundary (infill) RLZ min. lot size 1.2ha
Total land area
Land area excluding existing d’ment
Lot yield un-constrained areas
Vacant lots un-constrained
Lot supply range/notes
36.4 ha 0 1 0 additional lot yield supply at 1.2ha. 5 lot subdivision recently completed.
Constraint Constraint rating
Area constrained
Lot yield constrained
Vacant lots constrained
Partial areas of land subject to Inundation (LSIO) Slater Street affected by LSIO.
26ha 5
Slater Street unconstructed between Queen St & Woodvale Rd (Privately leased government road). Construction would provide access to 5 existing allotments south side of Slater St.
6 (includes 5 LSIO)
Forecast d’ment timing/lots/supply
No timing Completed
1-2 years 3-10 years
11+ years
Total est. or actual yield
Vacant Signif. constrained
Total supply
5 5 1 6 12
11. Slater St/Forest St/Woodrowvale Rd/Zone Boundary (infill) RLZ min. lot size 1.2ha
COLAC HOUSING LAND SUPPLY ASSESSMENT FINAL REPORT ROD BRIGHT & ASSOCIATES PTY. LTD. Page 31
Total land area
Land area excluding existing d’ment
Lot yield un-constrained areas
Vacant lots un-constrained
Lot supply range/notes
27.3ha 0 4 0 additional lot yield supply at 1.2ha
Constraint Constraint rating
Area constrained
Lot yield constrained
Vacant lots constrained
Localised areas of steep and erosion prone land
0 0
Forecast d’ment timing/lots/supply
No timing Completed
1-2 years 3-10 years
11+ years
Total est. or actual yield
Vacant Signif. constrained
Total supply
1 1 4 5
12. Aireys St/Forest St/Slater St/Zone Boundary (infill) RLZ min. lot size 1.2ha
Total land area
Land area excluding existing d’ment
Lot yield un-constrained areas
Vacant lots un-constrained
Lot supply range/notes
62.0ha 3 1
Constraint Constraint rating
Area constrained
Lot yield constrained
Vacant lots constrained
Partial areas of LSIO 18.4ha 8 Slater Street unconstructed between Queen St & Woodvale Rd (Privately leased government road). Construction would provide access to 5 existing allotments north side of street. Intersection to Queen St affected by LSIO.
5 also included in LSIO
Forecast d’ment timing/lots/supply
No timing Completed
1-2 years 3-10 years
11+ years
Total est. or actual yield
Vacant Signif. constrained
Total supply
1 3 4 1 8 13
13. Aireys St/Forest St/Pound Rd/Zone Boundary (infill) RLZ min. lot size 1.2ha
Total land area
Land area excluding existing d’ment
Lot yield un-constrained areas
Vacant lots un-constrained
Lot supply range/notes
70.5ha 2 4 lot yield supply at 1.2ha
Constraint Constraint rating
Area constrained
Lot yield constrained
Vacant lots constrained
Partial areas of LSIO – 7 lots wholly constrained from development
26.3ha 0 7
Forecast d’ment timing/lots/supply
No timing Completed
1-2 years 3-10 years
11+ years
Total est. or actual yield
Vacant Signif constrained
Total supply
1 2 3 4 7 14
COLAC HOUSING LAND SUPPLY ASSESSMENT FINAL REPORT ROD BRIGHT & ASSOCIATES PTY. LTD. Page 32
14. Pound Rd/Forest St/Hearn St//Zone Boundary (infill) RLZ min. lot size 1.2ha
Total land area
Land area excluding existing d’ment
Lot yield un-constrained areas
Vacant lots un-constrained
Lot supply range/notes
36.4ha 1 0 Potential for 3 additional lots at 1.2 ha but constrained by LSIO or access subject to LSIO.
Constraint Constraint rating
Area constrained
Lot yield constrained
Vacant lots constrained
Partial areas of LSIO lots or access to lots constrained from development
21.4ha 3 5
Forecast d’ment timing/lots/supply
No timing Completed
1-2 years 3-10 years
11+ years
Total est. or actual yield
Vacant Signif. constrained
Total supply
1 1 8 9
15. Hearn St/Fulton St/ Zone Boundary (infill) RLZ min. lot size 1.2ha
Total land area
Land area excluding existing d’ment
Lot yield un-constrained areas
Vacant lots un-constrained
Lot supply range/notes
6.9ha 0 0 Potential for 4 additional lots at 1.2 ha
Constraint Constraint rating
Area constrained
Lot yield constrained
Vacant lots constrained
Partial areas of LSIO – Intersection of Hearn & Fulton affected by LSIO
4.8 ha 0 3
Rezoning to IN1Z proposed as part of current Commercial/Industrial Strategy C86
5
Forecast d’ment timing/lots/supply
No timing Completed
1-2 years 3-10 years
11+ years
Total est. or actual yield
Vacant Signif. constrained
Total supply
0 0 0
COLAC HOUSING LAND SUPPLY ASSESSMENT FINAL REPORT ROD BRIGHT & ASSOCIATES PTY. LTD. Page 33
5.3 INTENSIFICATION
The following section identifies existing residential areas suitable for intensification through subdivision or medium density development. It does not attempt to
allocate a lot yield supply but recognises the opportunity for supply through lot sizes, subdivision and development patterns. Images source: Department of Environment, Land, Water & Planning https://www.spear.land.vic.gov.au/lassi/SpearUI.jsp
1. Hart, Borwick, Campbell, Dowling Streets.
Original allotment sizes averaging 1600m2.
Dual road or lane access.
Medium density housing established.
Distance from Murray Street CBD 1km
2. Forbes Street
Original allotment sizes exceeding 1400m2
Distance from Murray Street CBD 450m
Close proximity to ‘health’ precinct
3. Ross Street Original allotment sizes exceeding 1600m2
Potential for subdivision if road network provided to rear of lots as part of subdivision design of former high school site to be rezoned.
COLAC HOUSING LAND SUPPLY ASSESSMENT FINAL REPORT ROD BRIGHT & ASSOCIATES PTY. LTD. Page 34
The typical medium-density housing model in Colac has been designed within an individual allotment, usually with vehicle access along one boundary and a unit design
replicated to maximum density across the available land balance. Typical individual medium density dwellings are single storey, contained within 250-300m2 with
additional area required for access and communal facilities. Slightly larger lot sizes achieve better neighborhood character outcomes in relation to the street for single
storey medium density dwellings.
The following case studies show various supply models existing in Colac, facilitated by combined allotments, infill opportunities and dual frontages:
1. 23 Scott St medium density housing.
Total land area 6200m2
10 units, average lot size 460m2
Common areas 1600m2 or 26% of land area
Presents to street as typical single dwelling opening into larger area to rear.
Image 1: 23 Scott St, Google earth streetview image.
2. 158 Pound Rd medium density housing
Total land area 1067m2
3 units, average lot size 315m2
Common area 122m2or 11% of land area.
Typical model of subdivision of individual allotment with access along long boundary.
Image 2: 158 Pound Rd, Google earth streetview image
3. 61 Pollack St medium density housing
Total land area 1951m2
5 units, average lot size 390m2
No common area, dual road abuttal along Pollack and Moet Streets.
Image 3: 61 Pollack St, Google earth streetview image
4. 2 Moore St medium density housing
Total land area 1100m2
3 units, average lot size 197m2
Common area 509m2 or 46% of land area)
Approved prior to ResCode ¤t clause 55 & 56 residential development provisions..
Image 4: 2 Moore St, Google earth streetview image
COLAC HOUSING LAND SUPPLY ASSESSMENT FINAL REPORT ROD BRIGHT & ASSOCIATES PTY. LTD. Page 35
6. FINDINGS SUMMARY 6.1 GENERAL RESIDENTIAL ZONE
The following table compiles data across all potential lot supply reference areas zoned GRZ1.
Ref. Area No timing Completed 1-2 years SHORT
3-10 years MEDIUM
11+ years LONG
Total est. or actual yield
Vacant Signif. const.
Total supply
Broadhectare GRZ1
14 51 135 391 742 1333 4 222 1559
Infill GRZ1
5 8 0 22 6 36 1 8 45
Total GRZ1
19 59 135 413 748 1369 5 273 1604
Key findings:
There are 135 lots currently in the approval/construction phase to be available in the short term.
There are 413 lots that are likely to be developed, or available to be developed within the next 3-10
years.
Supply after 10 years is not assured, as lot supply in this category requires resolution of moderate to
severe constraints. There are potentially 748 lots available long term.
Of the total potential supply (1604 lots), 748 or 47% require resolution of moderate to severe
constraints.
Of the total potential supply (1604 lots), 273 or 17% are significantly constrained and are unlikely to
form part of future supply.
Unconstrained greenfield subdivision potential forms only 148 lots (35.8%) of the medium term
supply (413 lots) (reference areas 4, 27, 32 & 30).
There are 5 vacant allotments within the reference areas (excluding recently constructed
subdivision), indicating demand is meeting, or exceeding, current supply rates.
The main constraining factors in lot yield are:1) the current sewer district extent,2) the availability
and viability of stormwater infrastructure and limitations caused by flat land gradients,3) extensive
areas of inundation, and 4) obtaining agreement across multiple landholders restricted by prior
development patterns.
The revised inundation areas changes expectations regarding the development potential of some
areas of GRZ1 (with areas previously considered at risk now deemed lower risk, and vice versa).
The above figures do not take into account lot supply through excising lots from individual lots usually
containing an existing dwelling. Timing has not been allocated for this type of lot supply as they are
dependent on landholder initiation, and lot and housing design. There are numerous opportunities for small
lot supply throughout Colac & Elliminyt. 19 opportunities were identified through the assessment process;
although the reference areas exclude established residential areas in the town.
COLAC HOUSING LAND SUPPLY ASSESSMENT FINAL REPORT ROD BRIGHT & ASSOCIATES PTY. LTD. Page 36
6.2 RLZ & LDRZ
The following table compiles data across all potential lot supply reference areas zoned LDRZ and RLZ.
Ref. Area No timing Completed 1-2 years SHORT
3-10 years MEDIUM
11+ years LONG
Total est. or actual yield
Vacant Signif. const.
Total supply
Broadhectare LDRZ 0 6 10 81 0 97 0 50 147
Infill LDRZ & RLZ 54 14 7 12 6 93 36 50 179
Total LDRZ & RLZ 54 20 17 93 6 190 36 100 326
Key findings:
There are 17 lots currently in the approval/construction phase to be available in the short term.
There are 93 lots that are likely to be developed, or available to be developed within the next 3-10
years. 81 of these, or 87%, are in the Belverdere Drive Estate, in one ownership.
Following completion of the Belverdere Drive Estate, supply will rely on infill development.
There are substantial infill supply opportunities (54 lots) in the Belverdere Drive Estate due to the
original minimum lot size of 2.0ha being reduced through zone transition to 0.4ha. However, timing
and reliability of supply is dependent on individual landholder preference.
Of the total potential supply (326 lots), 6 require resolution of moderate to severe constraints.
Of the total potential supply (326 lots), 100 or 31% are significantly constrained and are unlikely to
form part of future supply.
There are 36 vacant lots identified, however these are generally being used in conjunction with
adjoining land which contains the primary dwelling, and are generally unavailable on the market as
housing land supply opportunities. These lots may also be located within current projected
inundation areas as shown within the current planning scheme LSIO maps.
The revised inundation areas changes expectations regarding the development potential of many
Rural Living lots (with areas previously considered at risk now deemed lower risk, and vice versa).
New dwelling land supply other than Belverdere Drive for residents in the RLZ and LDRZ market
relies on small-lot infill opportunities. Excluding Belverdere Drive and significantly constrained lots,
there a are approximately 39 potential lots available through subdivision, and an additional 36
vacant lots generally being used in conjunction with adjoining landholdings.
COLAC HOUSING LAND SUPPLY ASSESSMENT FINAL REPORT ROD BRIGHT & ASSOCIATES PTY. LTD. Page 37
6.3 INTENSIFICATION
Medium density housing development has typically relied on owner investors instigating redevelopment of
individual lots with units following dwelling demolition. Opportunities for this type of intensification are
extensive, yet not directed.
A standard ¼ acre lot can yield 3 to 4 medium density (single story) units based on the above model.
Currently the Colac Framework Plan identifies areas for infill development and consolidation close to the
town centre, excluding heritage overlay areas. Assessment of these areas identified few notable
opportunities for intensification based on existing development and subdivision patterns, with the exception
of Forbes St. However, opportunities in this street are likely to require demolition of period homes which are
valued in the real estate market and may preclude infill development.
Improved design outcomes for medium density outcomes generally derive from combined allotments due to
areas set aside for access, parking and setbacks as required by clause 55 & 56 planning provisions. Colac has
experienced few innovative design outcomes for medium density housing. There is potential to introduce
planning led initiatives to shift expected design parameters and increase medium density supply.
Notably, almost all unit development in the town comprises single-story dwellings, and we surmise the
increase in medium density housing is predominantly catering for an aging demographic. There are two
assisted living retirement facilities in Colac: Barongarook Gardens in Murray Street and Mercy Place in
Queen Street. The Balnagowan retirement village is currently being constructed with planning approval
granted for 66 units in total (of which 6 have been completed). Final completion of the facility is unknown.
Assessment of the adequacy of these facilities in terms of supply and demand and the needs of the ageing
population has not been undertaken and merits further attention.
Similarly the CBD and commercial zones are outside the scope of this assessment, however opportunities
for combining housing or visitor accommodation above shops could both contribute to future housing
supply and increase vibrancy within the town centre.
COLAC HOUSING LAND SUPPLY ASSESSMENT FINAL REPORT ROD BRIGHT & ASSOCIATES PTY. LTD. Page 38
7. SUPPLY & PROJECTED DEMAND The Housing Needs Assessment (Southern Cross Planning) estimates:
60 new dwellings per year will be required to meet the housing needs of Colac based on recent
trends.
To achieve the aspirational 2050 target of 20,000 persons, 86 dwellings per year will be required.
Currently the trend for medium density housing is at 14.5%, trending upwards to 25% by 2050.
Based on the findings of this residential land supply assessment:
Over the next 2 years (to 2018) 135 new GRZ1 lots are likely to be available, which will meet the
current housing needs of 60 per year (excluding medium density development). An additional 17
LDRZ/RLZ lots will cater for low density lot demand.
From 3-10 years (to 2026) there is likely to be 413 lots (GRZ1) available for housing (averaging 51.6
lots per annum over 8 years). Demand may exceed supply during this period based on current
conditions. Demand is likely to exceed supply during this period if the higher growth target of 86
dwellings per year is achieved.
Alternatively, demand may change market conditions and force resolution of constraints, which will
enable previously undevelopable land to become available.
Land supply for housing beyond 2026 is currently uncertain. For the aspirational target of 86
dwellings per year to be achieved, from 2026 to 2050, 2064 dwellings will be constructed. Assuming
20% medium density infill within existing land supply and the balance requiring new lot supply, 1651
new lots will be required.
Supply within current residential zones will require:
o Extension of the sewer district, particularly to enable subdivision of the Rifle Butts Road
land (reference area 1 - GRZ1), which could enable supply of up to 462 lots.
o Strategy for drainage and stormwater infrastructure in low lying areas (currently being
undertaken)
o Council led subdivision design outcomes for DPO infill areas.
Even if the above moderate to severe constraints are resolved and the ‘long term’ lots (748) are
supplied, there will be a shortage of supply of 903 lots, requiring additional 75 ha of land supply at a
lot yield rate of 12/hectare, or 60ha at 15/ha.
COLAC HOUSING LAND SUPPLY ASSESSMENT FINAL REPORT ROD BRIGHT & ASSOCIATES PTY. LTD. Page 39
8. APPENDICES 8.1 LAND ASSESSMENT REFERENCE AREA MAPS
COLAC HOUSING LAND SUPPLY ASSESSMENT FINAL REPORT ROD BRIGHT & ASSOCIATES PTY. LTD. Page 40
8.2 BARWON WATER SEWER DISTRICT MAP (COLAC STRUCTURE PLAN)
COLAC HOUSING LAND SUPPLY ASSESSMENT FINAL REPORT ROD BRIGHT & ASSOCIATES PTY. LTD. Page 41
8.3 CURRENT LSIO COLAC/ELLIMINYT
COLAC HOUSING LAND SUPPLY ASSESSMENT FINAL REPORT ROD BRIGHT & ASSOCIATES PTY. LTD. Page 42
8.4 UPDATED 1% AEP INUNDATION EXTENT BARONGAROOK & DEANS CREEK
CATCHMENTS
COLAC HOUSING LAND SUPPLY ASSESSMENT FINAL REPORT ROD BRIGHT & ASSOCIATES PTY. LTD. Page 43
8.5 LAND SUPPLY TABLES
COLAC HOUSING LAND SUPPLY ASSESSMENT FINAL REPORT ROD BRIGHT & ASSOCIATES PTY. LTD. Page 44