cognitive technologies, thinking and time · cognitive capacity 1990 2000 2010 2020 iom. 2007....
TRANSCRIPT
M-J. Sepúlveda, MD FACP FAAP
IBM Fellow
Cognitive Technologies, Thinking and Time Alvin F. Poussaint, MD Visiting Lectureship
December 6 2016
Alvin F. Poussaint, MD
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Disclaimer Purpose: stimulate your thinking
Discussion threads
– time
– thinking
–cognitive computing
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Photo: Luca Bruno / AP
2007
M_J Sepúlveda MD 6
2013
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2008
8 IBM Confidential Photo: Reuters
2014
1990
2010
Data Tsunami, Data Quake
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2.5 billion gigabytes data generated each
day
80% of the world’s data today are unstructured
1 Trillion connected objects
and devices
Expansion of Medical Knowledge
http://wingofzock.org/2014/12/23/medical-education-toy-airplane-or-stone-flywheel/
2X Medical
information doubling Q2 Yrs.
73 Days Medical
Information double by 2020
700K Journal
articles published
Q Yr.
Medical decisions becoming more complex
Proteomics and other effector molecules
Decisions by Clinical Phenotype
Structural Genetics: e.g. SNPs, haplotypes
Functional Genetics: Gene expression profiles
Fa
cts
pe
r D
eci
sio
n
Human Cognitive Capacity
1990 2000 2010 2020 IOM. 2007. Evidence-Based Medicine and the Changing Nature of Healthcare
Cognitive Systems reason, learn and
interact naturally with people to extend what humans or machines could do on their own.
Cognitive
Systems Era
Programmable
Systems Era Tabulating
Systems Era
You are here
Sensors & Devices
VoIP
Enterprise Data
Social Media
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Attributes of Cognitive Systems
cognitivecomputingconsortium.org
Information adept
Probabalistic
Meaning based
Dynamic, adaptive
Highly Integrated
Highly interactive
Uncertainty
Information Challenging:V3
volume, variety, velocity
Favorable Cost:Benefit
High Impact Potential
Uses for Cognitive Systems
Learning
Discovery
Training 16
Education
IBM Research
Advanced Image Recognition
Cognitive Applications
Discovery
Expert Decision Support
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Price and Technology Access
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PC Volumes
Wireless Service
SW, accessories
IT, HW, services
PCs, peripherals
Cell phone
Computer SW & Accessories
Computer Hardware & Services
Personal Computers
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Bicycle Video
M-J. Sepúlveda, MD FACP
IBM Fellow & Vice President
Primary Care
Milestones in PC Transformation
Baucus
White Paper
1978
Alma Ata
Declaration
Adv. Medical Home
2007
Joint Principles
Medical Home
2006
MH Pilots
2002
TransforMed
2008
Obama Plan
PPACA 2010
NBGH Award
1967
“Medical Home” Coined
Standards Child Health Care
Council on Ped. Practice
IOM on PC
1978-79
“Medical Home” Concept
Hawaii Child Health Plan
Calvin Sia MD 1987 Surg. Gen. Report
Dr. Koop, MH for CSHCN Future Family Medicine
1992 Medical Home Policy Statement
2004
Pilots
Sepulveda et al Journal of Pediatrics. May 14 2016.
Specialist Visits
Well Child
Exams,
Vaccinations
Rx Fills ED Visits
Primary Care
Visits
Value
Better care,
same cost
Children Youth (N=25,950): Free Primary Care Visits
Sepulveda et al Submitted for Publication Dec 2016
Specialist
Visits
Preventive
Primary Care
Visits
Rx Fills ED Visits
Preventive
Services
Delivery
Value
(Better care,
lower cost)
Adults (N= 35,217): Free Primary Care Visits
Discovery: Creativity in Culinary Arts
http://www.research.ibm.com/software/IBMResearch/multimedia/Cognitive-Cooking-Fact-Sheet.pdf
IBM Research: Mobile, Solutions, and Mathematical Sciences 26
Recommended
Time: high velocity affects apertures of opportunity
Thinking: wear multiple lenses, try believing to see as well
Cognitive computing:
-systems of engagement
-stay tuned, monitor closely
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Cognitive Computing Enablers
IoT