Cognitive Psychology, Gambling,

and Irrational Thinking

Cognitive Psychology and Gambling

• Major Tenets:

• A Gambler’s motivation to gamble derives from thoughts that are entirely conscious, but ones that are too highly valued.

• He or she persists in trying to win money at gambling because they hold a set of false beliefs about the nature of gambling and their own expertise.

Origin of Beliefs

• A gambler beliefs can come from a number sources.

• Culturally assimilated • Learned from popular role models • Societal institutions • Media • Family / friends

• Ultimately, the person who “gambles” continues to gamble because of their belief systems and the expectation of winning, which reinforces one’s gambling despite mounting losses.

Biased Estimates of Probability: Good and Bad Bets

• A key belief system, according cognitive psychologists’ that needs to be confronted, is the gambler’s estimation of probability.

• Research suggests that some gamblers will gamble when the probability of winning is low, overestimating their chances.

• To make matter worse, some gamblers despite having a chance to win, tend to underestimate good odds or a good bet.

Gambler’s Fallacy

• The belief that a particular outcome is likely to occur because it hasn’t occurred for sometime.

• In addition, these gamblers are also looking for patterns or streaks and then bet according to their hunch about such a streak.

• Hence, some bettors will continue to bet because their machine is on a hot streak, or a particular team is on a hot streak.

Gambler’s Fallacy (cont).

• Alternatively, a gambler may bet against a team because they are on a losing streak.

• Another example, betting on the same lottery numbers year after year.

Attribution Theory

• Attribution theory is a line of thought whereby cognitive psychologists’ seek to discover why gamblers persist, chase, and succumb to the gamblers fallacy.

• According to this theory gamblers can be divided into types:

• Those holding an internal locus of control, and;

• Those who hold an external locus of control.

Locus of Control: “External and Internal Type”

• Those with a strong external locus of control tend to regard life’s rewards and punishments as a matter of luck, chance, or divine will lying outside their personal control.

• Alternatively, internal locus of controls believe they are masters of their own destiny and therefore regard the outcome of events as consequences of their own behavioural choices.

• Studies using risk taking as their “intentional object” found that internal locus of controls like games of skill, while externals prefer games of chance.

Locus of Control (contd).

• Meanwhile, other studies have found that “internals” prefer safer more probable bets than those with an external orientation.

• Externals are more luck orientated, prefer riskier long shots, and base their bets on haunches, pervious outcomes, and superstition.

• Interestingly, externals are not more likely to be highrollers, as research has revealed that internals, are willingly to risk more money when playing games of chance that require some exercise of skill.

What is your locus of control?

Locus of Control Scale: “How To”

• Julian Rotter's Locus of Control scale (1966) measures the extent of a person's internal or external reinforcement beliefs.

• Indicate which of each statement you believe to be true, despite what you may wish to be true.

• There are no right or wrong answers. Answer all the questions.

1. a. Children get into trouble because their parents punish them too much. b. The trouble with most children nowadays is that their parents are too easy with them.

2. a. Many of the unhappy things in people's lives are partly due to bad luck. b. People's misfortunes result from the mistakes they make.

3. a. One of the major reasons why we have wars is because people don't take enough interest in politics. b. There will always be wars, no matter how hard people try to prevent them.

4. a. In the long run people get the respect they deserve in this world. b. Unfortunately, an individual's worth often passes unrecognized no matter how hard he tries.

5. a. The idea that teachers are unfair to students is nonsense. b. Most students don't realize the extent to which their grades are influenced by accidental happenings.

6. a. Without the right breaks one cannot be an effective leader. b. Capable people who fail to become leaders have not taken advantage of their opportunities.

7. a. No matter how hard you try some people just don't like you. b. People who can't get others to like them don't understand how to get along with others.

8. a. Heredity plays the major role in determining one's personality. b. It is one's experiences in life which determine what they're like.

9. a. I have often found that what is going to happen will happen. b. Trusting to fate has never turned out as well for me as making a decision to take a definite course of action.

10. a. In the case of the well prepared student there is rarely if ever such a thing as an unfair test. b. Many times exam questions tend to be so unrelated to course work that studying in really useless.

11. a. Becoming a success is a matter of hard work, luck has little or nothing to do with it. b. Getting a good job depends mainly on being in the right place at the right time.

12. a. The average citizen can have an influence in government decisions. b. This world is run by the few people in power, and there is not much the little guy can do about it.

13. a. When I make plans, I am almost certain that I can make them work. b. It is not always wise to plan too far ahead because many things turn out to be a matter of good or bad fortune anyhow.

14. a. There are certain people who are just no good. b. There is some good in everybody.

15. a. In my case getting what I want has little or nothing to do with luck. b. Many times we might just as well decide what to do by flipping a coin.

16. a. Who gets to be the boss often depends on who was lucky enough to be in the right place first. b. Getting people to do the right thing depends upon ability, luck has little or nothing to do with it .

17. a. As far as world affairs are concerned, most of us are the victims of forces we can neither understand, nor control. b. By taking an active part in political and social affairs the people can control world events.

18. a. Most people don't realize the extent to which their lives are controlled by accidental happenings. b. There really is no such thing as "luck."

19. a. One should always be willing to admit mistakes. b. It is usually best to cover up one's mistakes.

20. a. It is hard to know whether or not a person really likes you. b. How many friends you have depends upon how nice a person you are.

21. a. In the long run the bad things that happen to us are balanced by the good ones. b. Most misfortunes are the result of lack of ability, ignorance, laziness, or all three.

22. a. With enough effort we can wipe out political corruption. b. It is difficult for people to have much control over the things politicians do in office.

23. a. Sometimes I can't understand how teachers arrive at the grades they give. b. There is a direct connection between how hard 1 study and the grades I get.

24. a. A good leader expects people to decide for themselves what they should do. b. A good leader makes it clear to everybody what their jobs are.

25. a. Many times I feel that I have little influence over the things that happen to me. b. It is impossible for me to believe that chance or luck plays an important role in my life.

26. a. People are lonely because they don't try to be friendly. b. There's not much use in trying too hard to please people, if they like you, they like you.

27. a. There is too much emphasis on athletics in high school. b. Team sports are an excellent way to build character.

28. a. What happens to me is my own doing. b. Sometimes I feel that I don't have enough control over the direction my life is taking.

29. a. Most of the time I can't understand why politicians behave the way they do. b. In the long run the people are responsible for bad government on a national as well as on a local level.

2b 3a 4a 5a 6b 7b 9b 10a 11a 12a 13a 15a 16b 17b 18b 20b 21b 22a 23b 25b 26a 28a 29b

Locus of Control Scale (Rotter) – ScoringScore 1 point for each of the following:

What your scores mean?

• 0-3 - Internal Locus of Control (extreme)

• 4-11 - Internal Locus of Control (healthy)

• 12-23 - External Locus of Control

Making Sense of Locus of Control

• For the gambler, holding an internal locus of control then, appears to make one susceptible to the belief that they can control events outside of their actual control.

• Moreover, internals are also more likely to be influenced by the early phase of winning or

beginners luck.

What is this pointing to. . .

• In all, internal locus of control appears to play into the hands of what cognitive psychologists call “the illusion of control”

Illusion of Control

• Illusion of control: primary and secondary.

• Primary – refers to the belief that through personal actions, gamblers can directly influence the outcomes of events.

• Secondary – refers to the belief that they have the ability to predict these outcomes.

Illusion of Control

• Studies have also found a link between the internal locus of control and those who belief that gambling is more of matter of skill than luck.

• Taken together with an internal locus of control, the exercise of skill and the ability to predict outcomes, the gambler of such a design is sure to become a victim to the illusion of control.

Beginner’s Luck: The Early Win Hypothesis

• Attribution theorists belief that earlier experiences are responsible for later personality development.

• Hence, having an earlier win while gambling can leave a lengthy impression on the gambler.

• Thus, the gambler who wins early in his / her gambling career is supposedly vulnerable toward developing an internal locus of control and holding the believe that they are responsible for

winning.

Phenomenology of the Early Win

• One gambler stated:

• It was in Olds Alberta, I was eighteen just moved from B.C. It was neat, I think I put in twenty-dollars, yeah; they don’t take anything less than twenty unless you have loonies, and I had twenty dollar bills and I won. About a hundred dollars and some. I was excited and I took it out and I kept it. I won it right away, I maxed out my bet, I hit, I won, It was pretty neat, I remember getting red in the face, kind of blushing, told my buddies, and then put it in my pocket and went and partied. After that twenty bucks, I wouldn’t have gambled, ah, I wouldn’t have had that craving. . . No, if I wouldn’t have won on that first twenty-bucks, that would have been it.

The Early Win Hypothesis and the Pathological

Gambler: Research Reveals. . .

• Studies are mixed on supporting whether or not pathological gambling is linked to an early win, but it does suggest that recent wins do influence future betting.

Biased Evaluations: A Matter of Choice

• Wishful thinking is one example of biased evaluations.

• In this instance, the bettor bets on at outcome because they have chosen a particular (e.g., team, side, card or cards), despite the odds or information that tells them not to.

• However, when faced with mounting losses, the gambler devises strategies to keep them in the action or deny that their evaluation(s) are erroneous.

Rationalization of: “The Near Win or Near Loss”

• Here the gambler uses excuses to cover up for their bad judgment or a bad bet.

• Examples include:

• Flukes and mishaps• Machine failure • Misinformation (injured players) • Referee blunder• Poor draw of cards

• However, both winners and losers rationalize the games outcome, painting a positive light on why they won or lost despite the blunders.

• Essentially, such rationalizations foster gaming persistence, and hide the fact that one’s reasons for choosing the winner or loser are actually illusions.

Entrapment and The Winning System

• Entrapment is a form of chasing ones losses, but it occurs at the point of no return and is tied to having a gambling system and holding to a internal locus of control.

A Case of Entrapment

• One gambler stated:

– I didn’t have any money and I needed to gamble and when I gambled I was trying hard to get enough money to fix whatever I had done. But eventually it got to the point there was no fixing it. Because at the end, it was like (sobbing intensely)… It was a job I had to do it, and once I had put whatever money I had into the machine, I could go home.

Entrapment and The Winning System

• Paradoxically the gambler knows that only a very big win is going to save them, thus hoping to put themselves on the winning side of the ledger.

• But since they are losing and don’t want to admit that their system is faulty, whereby they would then have to acknowledge that gambling itself is out one’s control. . .

• They continue to gamble entrapped by their own system of faulty reasoning.

Phenomenological Experience: A System at Play

• We got the system going. Um, the old pro’s who use to play roulette. So I would say hey what’s the gist, “Well if it lands on a two it’s going to land on a twenty next. . . If it lands on a twenty it is going to land on this number.” So they kind of, and you, naïve, you know, you take these people up on there advice. And the scary thing is, it probably never worked, but it seemed like it did. I shouldn’t say that, because in Vegas I know it did, but anyways. So I would watch and get excited when they actually said something and it would get close to that little square number or around it. So I got hooked in. And then I began to elaborate on the system that was taught to me.

Phenomenological Experience of Ritual

• One gambler stated:

I figured I was working the program. I figured I was working something, it was, yeah. I had rituals, I had ah, they new when I walked in, what I had, what I drank, when I would do things. When I first got to the casino I wouldn’t play for twenty minutes. I would

walk around, get the sense of the place, and they knew, my drink would be there when I got up to the roulette wheel, yeah, psyching yourself up, get your self prepared and then I was ready to bet.

Cognitive treatment

Cognitive correction:

(a) Understanding the concept of randomness

(b) Understanding the main erroneous belief making links between independent events

(c) Awareness of inaccurate perceptions

(d) Cognitive correction of erroneous perceptions

Relapse prevention