cognitive bias - exploring what goes on between your ears
TRANSCRIPT
Pre s e n t e d b y
Cognitive BiasExploring what goes on between your ears
Dan Neumann
AgileIndy 2016
Your Greatest Tool
https://www.flickr.com/photos/learningissocial/
Dan Neumann
If you have questions or would like more information, feel free to contact me.
• www.agilethought.com• [email protected]• www. linkedin.com/in/meetdanneumann• @DanRNeumann• 574-514-3285• http://neumanagementllc.com/blog/
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Imagine…
Anchoring•Over-Weight the First Information•Make Decisions while Anchored•Especially a problem under pressure
https://www.flickr.com/photos/chris_cardew/
•Planning Poker•Silent Writing•Start with “Why”•Sleep on it
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Two Categories
https://www.flickr.com/photos/jeremybrooks/https://www.flickr.com/photos/janellie23/
Ego BiasInformation Bias
Imagine…
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Optimism BiasGenerally believe ourselves to be less prone to certain events.
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Optimism Bias and Selective Updating
Representative of Group 1:Learns the actual chance is 50%
“ How unrealistic optimism is maintained in the face of reality” Tali Sharot, Christoph W Korn & Raymond J Dolan. NATURE NEUROSCIENCE, November 2011
Representative of Group 2:Learns the actual chance is 10%
Believes chance of cancer is 30%
New Belief: 33% New Belief: 22%
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“ How unrealistic optimism is maintained in the face of reality” Tali Sharot, Christoph W Korn & Raymond J Dolan. NATURE NEUROSCIENCE, November 2011
It’s Biological
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Combat: Make The Processing More Complex“Beyond Budgeting”•Estimate•Budget•Expected outcome
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Debiasing: Multiple Explanation1. “Consider the Opposite”2. Consider any Alternative3. Alternative Plausibility
Related to Planning FallacyAddress Planning Fallacy with Reference Class Forecasting
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Availability Bias•We judge how important (or how likely) something is by how easy it is to think of an example• In particular, vivid, unusual, or emotionally charged examples stick.
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Combating Availability Bias•Research •Beware the most recent/memorable
•Personas•Experiments
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Two Categories
https://www.flickr.com/photos/jeremybrooks/https://www.flickr.com/photos/janellie23/
Ego BiasInformation Bias
AnchoringOptimismAvailability
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Illusory SuperiorityThe “Above Average” Bias
NOTE: Don’t call it Lake Wobegon Effect:http://www.publicradio.org/columns/prairiehome/posthost/2013/04/01/the_lake_wobegon_effect.php
Image: http://bit.ly/20qozUI
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Attribution BiasMy Your
Success
Failure
*Not true of all cultures
Innate Abilities Circumstances
Bad Luck Incompetence
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Dunning-Kruger EffectUnskilled Highly Skilled
Self-Assessment
Side-Effect
Overestimated Underestimated
Overconfidence Frustration with Others
Moderating Ego BiasCreate Safety“Regardless of what we discover, we understand and truly believe that everyone did the best job they could, given what they knew at the time, their skills and abilities, the resources available, and the situation at hand.” --Norm KerthProject Retrospectives: A Handbook for Team Review
Moderating Ego Bias•Model Getting Feedback•Evaluate the work, not the individual•Bring Data•Broaden your perspective
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In-Group/Out-Group Bias• Positive characters ascribed to their own group•Negative characteristics ascribed to other groups• Especially when competing for resources!
Mitigation Strategies:•Get a broader definition of “my group”• Address the resource scarcity
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Choice-Supportive Bias•Highlight positive attributes of our selection•Downplay positive attributes of alternatives
Mitigation Strategies:•Regular Reviews•Engage with outsiders
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Confirmation Bias (a.k.a.,“Myside Bias”)•Seek information that supports our beliefs or hypotheses•Co-opt Ambiguity
Mitigation Strategies:•Additional Opinions•“Yes, and…”
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Social Desirability Bias•Over-report “good” behavior•Underreport “bad”
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Hawthorne EffectPeople tend to behave differently when they are being observed.
Use it for Advantage:•Video during meetings•Sprint Reviews
https://www.flickr.com/photos/mrsdkrebs/
Agony by wallsdontlie
Poison and Vomit by Thomas Hawk
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We discussed:AnchoringOptimism BiasAvailability BiasIllusory SuperiorityAttribution BiasDunning-Kruger Effect
In-Group/Out-GroupChoice-SupportiveConfirmationSocial DesirabilityHawthorne EffectBias Against Creativity
Summary of Strategies• Show your cards all at
once: • Planning Poker • Silent Writing • Start with “Why” • Sleep on it • Make the issue more
complex (e.g., Beyond Budgeting)
• Multiple Explanation • Reference Class
Forecasting
• Research • Experiments • Personas • Create Safety • Model Getting Feedback • Bring Data • Evaluate the work, not the
individual • Broaden your perspective • Broaden the definition of
“My Group"
• Address the sense of resource scarcity
• Review your choices. • Include outsiders • Create additional options • Yes, And • Take advantage of
Hawthorne Effect • Reduce Uncertainty to
allow for Creativity
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Blind Spot Bias• When one sees the impact of biases on the judgment of
others, but fail to see the impact of biases on one’s own judgment• Survey of 600 Americans, 85% thought they were less
biased than the average American
Dan Neumann
If you have questions or would like more information, feel free to contact me.
• www.agilethought.com• [email protected]• www. linkedin.com/in/meetdanneumann• @DanRNeumann• 574-514-3285• http://neumanagementllc.com/blog/
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