cocoon-ccmcc research project mid term review

Hydropower development in the context of climate change: Exploring conflicts and fostering

cooperation across scales and boundaries in the Eastern Himalayas (CoCooN-CCMCC Project)

Hari K. ShreathaOctober 14-16, 2015

Mid-term Progress ReportActivities of Nepal Engineering College (Activity 1.2)

Tamor River Basin Location

Progress Status Proposed Activity/Sub-activity Completed Partially

completedHas not Started

Remarks

Sub-activity 1 Development of precipitation trend in Tamor River WatershedPurchase of DHM precipitation data ✓

Trend analysis software purchase

✓

Simple trend from MS Excel used augmented by CC model

Precipitation data analysis and extrapolation

✓ Initial Analysis by MS Excel, augmented by CC modeling

Summary table of project progress related to Nepal Engineering College’s activities

Sub-activity 2 Development of temperature trend in Tamor River Watershed

Proposed Activity/Sub-activity Completed Partially completed

Has not Started

Remarks

Purchase of DHM temperature data ✓

Temperature data analysis and extrapolation ✓

Sub-activity 3 Preparation of hydropower project list in selected study area

Proposed Activity/Sub-activity Completed Partially completed

Has not Started

Remarks

Collection of data/ reports/ publications from NEA, DOED, IPPAN, NMHDA, AEPC

✓

Field Trip to verify number and location, and update data

✓ The map with HPP

locations as field trip output, Appendix 4

Preparation of Maps ✓ Initial Map prepared.

Sub-activity 4 Preparation of Physiographical Maps of selected study area

Proposed Activity/Sub-activity

Completed Partially completed

Has not Started

Remarks

Purchase of digital topographical maps (Dept. of Survey)

✓ Map sheet No. 2787: 11,

15b and 16a, given in Appendix 4

Field Trip to verify location of HPP components, and update data

✓

Location of HPP complete, HPP components incomplete.

Preparation and Printing of Maps

✓ Data processing yet to be done.

Sub-activity 5 Preparation of hydrogeological database of study areaProposed Activity/Sub-activity


Has not Started

Remarks

Purchase of existing hydrological data

✓

Available data from other projects up to 2007 used.

Establish staff gauge & rain gauge in central part of study area

✓ Field trip cancelled due to earthquake, monsoon, road block & strikes.

Purchase an automatic rain gauge

✓

Purchase automatic stage recorder

✓

Salary to record keeper (RC) ✓ Staff gauge yet to be

Field visits for discharge measurement, data collection and workshop

✓Field trip cancelled due to earthquake, monsoon, road blocked & strikes.

Purchase current meter ✓ Report preparation ✓ Will start in 2016

Sub-activity 6 Development of a syllabus on e-flowProposed Activity/Sub-activity Completed Partially

completedHas not Started

Remarks

Prepare Draft e-flow of Syllabus ✓ Circulate among experts and comments ✓

Revise draft syllabus by addressing experts' comments ✓

Workshop of experts to discuss syllabus details and its relevancy

✓ 27/7/2015, got

pertinent documents

Prepare final draft version of the syllabus ✓

Submit the final draft syllabus to Dean of Pokhara University (PU) ✓

Discuss syllabus details at PU Subject Committee (SC) meeting ✓

Syllabus revision by addressing issues raised by SC ✓

Finalize the syllabus after its approval from the PU ✓ Final syllabus

approved.

Sub-activity 7 Researchers' Capacity Building TrainingProposed Activity/Sub-activity


Has not Started

Remarks

Inception workshop ✓ April 2014, conducted before task assignment to PIs.

PhD candidate selection and budget details ✓ Unscheduled activity.Capacity development workshop participation: Methodological issues in participatory research on conflicts and cooperation

✓

Organized by Forest Action and Middlesex University April 19-22, 2015; Unscheduled activity

Pani Satsang participation and presentation ✓

Kalimpong, Unscheduled activity, Dec 23, 2014

Summer school in env. justice and internal review meeting

✓ Gangtok, Sikkim, July 28-31, 2015, Unscheduled activity.

Sub-activity 8 Conduct e-flow assessment training New sub-activity

Proposed Activity/Sub-activity


Has not Started Remarks

e-flow assessment (EFA) training ✓ September 29, 2015 Sub-activity 9 Conduct e-flow seminar New sub-activitye-flow Seminar ✓ Scheduled for 1st

week of Dec. 2015 Sub-activity 10 Assessment of current water

use New sub-activityPrepare draft questionnaire ✓ Draft questionnaire

readyField survey of current water uses ✓ Planned in coming

field visitEstimation of future water uses ✓ Planned in coming

field visit

St.Index

Station Location

Data Type and Availability (years)

1314 Terhathum Temperature (1989-2012)

Humidity (1989-2013)

Rainfall (1966-2013)

1405 Temperature (1962-2013)



1419 Phidim Temperature (1990-2013)



St. No

River Location Latitude Long. Elevation (m)

Area (km2)

Data Available

since684 Tamor Majhitar 27 09 30 87 42 45 533 4050 1996690 Tamor Mulghat 26 55 50 87 19 45 276 5640 1965728 Mai

KholaRajdwali 26 52 45 87 55 45 609 377 1983

795 Kankai Mainachuli 26 41 12 87 52 44 125 1148 1972

List of hydrological data purchased from the DHMSource: DHM 2006

List of Hydrometric Stations in and around Tamor River BasinSource: DHM 2006

Hydrological Similarity Test

Trend of average annual flow (m3/s)

Trend of peak flow (m3/s)

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

3.5

4

2.24

3.523.22

2.33

1.15

1.821.98 1.86 1.88

2.59

3.27 3.23

Increase in average temperature (2050's)Station: Melung

MonthIncr

ease

in a

vera

ge T

empe

ratu

re 0

C

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec0

1

2

3

4

5

2.54

4.28

3.34

1

1.77 1.671.44

1.81 1.94 1.77

2.452.72

Increase in average temperature (2050's)Station: Phidim

Month

Incr

ease

in a

vera

ge T

empe

ratu

re 0

C

Rainfall, mmStation : Melung Rainfall (mm)

MonthBaseline

1980-2010Projected

2030-2060Change in rainfall, %

Jan 8 5 -38Feb 15 10 -33Mar 30 40 +33Apr 100 110 +10May 190 120 -37Jun 295 310 +5Jul 430 580 +35Aug 450 500 +11Sep 350 380 +9Oct 200 260 +30Nov 50 75 +50Dec 10 5 -50Total annual 2128 2395

Rainfall, mmStation : Phidim

Month

Baseline1980-2010

Projected2030-2060

Change in rainfall, %

Jan 8 5 -38Feb 12 10 -17Mar 20 21 +5Apr 50 60 +20May 100 89 -11Jun 155 165 +6Jul 230 350 +52Aug 250 310 +24Sep 195 210 +8Oct 100 140 +40Nov 25 30 +20Dec 10 7 -30Total annual 1155 1397

Upper Hewa KholaAnnual average flow: + 22 %Rainy season average flow: +33%Winter: -5.3%Pre-rainy season average flow: -24%Post-rainy season average flow: +20%

UPPER HEWA Khola

MonthChange in

monthly avg flow %

Jan -5Feb -10Mar +14Apr +32May -64Jun +83

UPPER HEWA Khola

MonthChange in

monthly avg flow %

Jul +63Aug -10Sep +24Oct +30Nov +4Dec -3Total +22

Lower Hewa KholaAnnual average flow: + 34 %Rainy season average flow: +50%Winter: -8%Pre-rainy season average flow: -19%Post-rainy season average flow: +28%

Lower HEWA Khola

Month Change in monthly average flow %

Jan -10Feb -5Mar +25Apr +43May -63Jun +90Jul +82Aug +14Sep +31Oct +38Nov +14Dec -9Total +34

HPP locations in Hewa Khola

Theory Practical TotalSessional 60 60

Final 40 40Total 100 100

Final Pokhara University approved version of e-flow assessment syllabusENVIRONMENTAL FLOW ASSESSMENT (3-0-0)This course introduces the concept of environmental flow (EF) in rivers, explains its necessity and develops skills to implement it in water resources development projects.Intended learning objectives:Upon successful completion of this course, the students are expected to be able to:•Assess EF required for riparian livelihoods, and freshwater biodiversity •Use available tools and methods for EFA•Analyze the existing EF PoliciesCOURSE CONTENT:Chapter 1: Introduction (3 hr.)

1.Emerging concepts and definitions 2.Evolution of EF concepts

Chapter 2: Science of EF (6 hr.)3.Physical, chemical and biological processes of a river system and their interactions4.Stream flow variability – the basis for EF assessment5.Ecosystem services and EF

Chapter 3: Methods and tools for EF assessment (18 hr.) 6.Overview of EFA Methodologies 7.Hydrology based methods 8.Hydraulic rating methods, Habitat stimulation methods9.Holistic methods: building block method (BBM), downstream response to imposed flow transformations (DRIFT)10.Applications examples: Nepal, South Asia, international 11.EF assessment for wetlands

Chapter 4: EF related policies and legislation (8 hr.) 1.Overview of EF policies – international experience with specific reference to Australia, USA and UK2.South African resource directed measures and ecological reserve

Chapter 5: EF in water resources planning and management (6 hr.)•Use of EF in water resources planning and impact assessment

1.EF and basin water allocation2.EF and water storage development and management 3.Cost and benefits of EF

Chapter 6: Case Studies of Environmental Flow (4 hr.)Case studies relate to success or failure of EF policy formation and/or implementation in different projects. Students are expected to conduct study on their own and make individual presentation including report preparation.

Evaluation Scheme:•Assignment on data analysis related to EF application: 10%•Assignment on EFA tool application: 30%•Case study based presentation and report writing: 20%•Final examination: 40%

Hydropower Projects in Hewa Khola Watershed

Existing ProjectsS.N. Projects Capacity

MWRiver Promoter Latitude Longitude VDC/ District

1 Pheme Khola

0.995 Pheme Khoranga Khola Hydropower Development Company Pvt.Ltd

Panchthar

2 Phidim 0.24 Phidim NEA Panchthar

NEA’s Phidim HPP is leased to private company. Projects Under Construction 1 Hewa

Khola A14.9 Hewa Panchthar

Power Company P. Ltd

27° 10' 09'', 27° 11' 33''

87° 47' 30'', 87° 50' 58''

Bharapa, Nangeen, Yanganam, Panchthar

2 Lower Hewa

21.6(revised)

Hewa Mountain Hydro Nepal P. Ltd.

27° 09' 02'', 27° 10' 10''

87° 44' 15'', 87° 46' 31''

Panchthar

List of Hydropower Development Projects in the vicinity of the Study Area

Hydropower Projects in Hewa Khola Watershed

Others Projects (List of Survey Licenses and Cancelled Licenses)S.N. Projects Capacity

MWRiver Promoter Latitiude Longitude VDC/ District

1 Middle Phame

0.15 Phame B.K. Power Developer 27° 09' 15'', 27° 09' 31''

87° 46' 55'', 87° 47' 05''

Panchthar

2 Muwa Khola

0.998 Muwa Phidim Hydro and Energy P. Ltd.

27° 08' 38'', 27° 10' 30''

87° 54' 00'', 87°, 55' 30''

Panchthar

3 Hewa-A small HEP

5 Hewa Engineers Saving and Credit Cooperative Ltd.

27° 10' 40'', 27° 11' 38''

87° 51' 00'', 87° 53' 15''

Yanganam, Ekteen Panchthar

4 Lower Phame Khola

2.2 Phame Arun Valley Hydropower Devlopment Co. P. Ltd.

27° 08' 45'', 27° 09' 55''

87° 46' 10'', 87° 46' 50''

Nangeen, Phidim, Bharapa Panchthar

5 Hewa Khola -B

2.3 Hewa Panchthar Power Company P. Ltd.

27° 09' 39'', 27° 10' 40''

87° 46' 32'', 87° 47' 30''

Bharapa, Nangeen, Panchthar

6 Upper Phame Khola

2.5 Phame Aqua Himal Hydropower P. Ltd.

27° 07' 30'', 27° 08' 30''

87° 48' 14'', 87° 50' 00''

Nangeen, Ranitar Panchthar

List of Hydropower Development Projects in the vicinity of the Study Area

S. N. Activity Heading Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

1 Trend analysis software procurement

2 Precipitation data analysis and extrapolation

3 Temperature Data analysis and extrapolation

4Collection of reports/publications of each HPP in study area from project promoters

5Field Trip with GPS to verify location of HPP compoments and updated data

6Prepare detailed maps of HPP components of each HPP in study area

7Field trip to locate community, population, watershed, hazard level and update data

8 Preparation and Printing of Maps

9Establishment of staff gauge and rain gauge in central part of study area

10 Procurement of an automatic rain gauge

11 Procurement of automatic stage recorder

12 Salary to record keeper

13Field visits for discharge measurement, data collection and workshop

14 Procurement of current meter

15Revise draft e-flow syllabus by addressing experts' comments

16 Workshop to discuss syllabus details

17 Prepare final draft version of the syllabus

18 Discuss syllabus detai ls at PU Subject Committee

19 Syllabus revision by addressing SC's issues

Hydropower development in the context of climate change: Exploring conflicts and fostering cooperation acrossscales and boundaties in the Eastern Himalayas (CCMCC Project)

Planned Time Schedule of Activities of Nepal Engineering College for 2015

S.N. Activity Link with overall Project goal

1Trend analysis of hydro-meteorological data

Basis for establishing evidence of climate change

2Precipitation data analysis and extrapolation

Establish climate change and predict water availability

3Temperature Data analysis and extrapolation

Establish climate change and predict water availability

4

Collection of reports/publications of each HPP in study area from project promoters

Update data of HPP projects; find actual use of water by HPP against designed discharge

5Field Trip to verify location of HPP components and update data

Assess location specific effect of HPP on water flow and water availability to local settlers

6Prepare detailed maps of HPP components of project in study area

For spatial analysis of project specific water balance

7

Field trip to locate community, population, watershed, hazard level and update data

For spatial analysis of water related hazard, and assess change in hazard level due to CC

8 Preparation and Printing of Maps Spatial analysis of project effects on water

9Establishment of staff gauge and rain gauge in central part of study area

Compare with secondary data and apply correction factor, if needed, in secondary data before analysis

10 Purchase an automatic rain gauge Needed for collection of primary data

Relevance/Link with Project Goal/objectives


11Procurement of automatic stage recorder

Needed for collection of primary data

12 Salary to record keeperCollection of primary data and equipment protection

13

Field visits for discharge measurement, data collection and workshop

Needed for collection of primary data and compare with secondary data, is needed to assess climate change

14 Procurement of current meter Needed for collection of primary data

15Revise draft e-flow syllabus by addressing experts' comments

e-flow syllabus preparation for providing e-flow assessment skill to students and HPP practitioners

16 Workshop to discuss syllabus detailsPart of e-flow approval process by Pokhara University

17Prepare final draft version of the syllabus

Part of e-flow approval process by Pokhara University

18Discuss syllabus details at PU Subject Committee (SC)


19Syllabus revision by addressing SC's issues


20 e-flow syllabus approval by PUPart of e-flow approval process by Pokhara University


21 Inception workshop Assign specific activity to specific partner institute

22PhD candidate selection and budget details

Select human resource for research support

23

Workshop participation on participatory research on conflicts and cooperation

Capacity buildup of PI for better data

24Pani Satsang participation and presentation

Network and capacity building for better data analysis

25Summer school in env. justice and internal review meeting

Network and capacity building for better data analysis

26 e-flow assessment (EFA) training Link project output with HPP designers & decision makers

27 e-flow seminarLink project output with HPP designers & decision makers

28Prepare draft questionnaire for water need

Primary data collection on current water need

29 Field survey of current water uses Primary data collection on current water need30 Estimation of future water uses Assess HPP and CC impact on future livelihood

Thank you.