coastal risk assessment studies: the problem of the scales through 3 examples borja g. reguero...
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Coastal Risk Assessment studies:
The problem of the scales through 3 examples
Borja G. Reguero [email protected] / [email protected]
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National / International e.g., LAC
Spatial scales in the coastal areas:
0.50º ~ 50 Km = Global (Low Resolution, LR)0.05º ~ 5 Km = Regional (Medium Resolution, MR)10 m – 100 m = Local (High Resolution, HR)
MR
LR
LR HR
Local sitee.g., city
Country / regione.g. Gulf Coast, US
3 scales
Data + detail/resolution of processes
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Case 1. The Macro Scale: e.g., Latin America and the Caribbean
Case 2. The Micro Scale: e.g., The city of Santander (SP)
Case 3. The Meso Scale: e.g., Gulf Coast
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Case 1. The Macro Scale: e.g., Latin America and the Caribbean
Case 2. The Micro Scale: e.g., The city of Santander (SP)
Case 3. The Meso Scale: e.g., Gulf Coast
“ Identifying priorities“(process-integrated approach)
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Hazard value
Vulnerability
Exposure
( )zf z
Risk (R) is defined as “the probability of harmful consequences or expected losses resulting from a given hazard to a given element at danger or peril,
over a specified time period”
European Commission terminology (Schneiderbauer and Ehrlich, 2004)
(Natural Disasters)
Regional study on the effects of Climate Change in the coast of Latin America and the Caribbean
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f Z(z) Pi=Prob(zi-1<Z<zi)
zzi-1z0 z1 zi zn-1 zn... ...
EiVi
E(z)
V(z)
Regional study on the effects of Climate Change in the coast of Latin America and the Caribbean
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Hazards
(Dynamics &
Impacts)
• Waves• Storm surge• Sea Level Rise• Sea Surface Temperature• Surface Air Temperature• Salinity•…
Exposure & Vulnerability
• Distribution of population• Land uses and surface affected• Coastal typology (beach characteristics, coastal defense, port facilities, city sea border)• Ecosystems clasification • Ecological vulnerability indices• Infrastructures (Roads & Railways)• …
Risk
• Coastal flooding• Beach erosion (Tourism and coastal protection) • Port (operability and reliability)• Coral Bleaching• …
• Coastal Flooding• Beach Erosion• Port activity and reliability• Coral Bleaching• Sediment potential transport• Eolic potential transport
Dynamics Impacts
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Example of Risk integration 2: Reliability of Defensive Breakwaters
Type of sea-port as a function of its socio-economic relevance
Hazard Exposure Vulnerability
Length to repair
Change in design probability level
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Case 1. The Macro Scale: e.g., Latin America and the Caribbean
Case 2. The Micro Scale: e.g., The city of Santander (SP)
Case 3. The Meso Scale: e.g., Gulf Coast
“ Going to the detail “(process based approach)
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DSS-Santander follows the SPRC methodology (Source, Pathway, Receptor, Consequences)
R
f(R)• change vulnerability• change hazard
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Case 1. The Macro Scale: e.g., Latin America and the Caribbean
Case 2. The Micro Scale: e.g., The city of Santander (SP)
Case 3. The Meso Scale: e.g., Gulf Coast
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CLIMADAHazard Sets Scenarios
W Precip.SSHs
Atmospheric hazardsCoastal hazards
pFH
pFH inshore
Wave attenuation model (InVest Coastal Protection tool)
Coastal profile
pFH
pFH insh.
Ecosystems
protective services
Cost/Benefit of adaptation measures
NOTES:
First order of complexity (1D) Statistical simulation Additional advances:
SWAN-Veg Adcirc VOF-RANS runs
Damages, Events Losses SetsImpacts on assets
Storm generation
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1. Databases
1. Hazard data (hurricanes and LT trends)2. Bathymetry & topography3. Types of ecosystems, coastal defenses and coastal
profiles 4. Socio-economic Vulnerability data (population,
coastal assets, etc.)
www.coastalresilience.orgwww.unisys.com www.nooa.com ….
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1. Databases
2. Generation of Hazard sets (Wind, precip., SS, Waves)
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1. Databases
2. Generation of Hazard sets (Wind, precip., SS, Waves)
3. Coastal features and possible adaptation options (role of green/gray infrastructure)
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1. Databases
2. Generation of Hazard sets (Wind, precip., SS, Waves)
3. Coastal features and possible measures (role of green/gray infrastructure)
4. Evaluation of potential damages and overall risk
e.g. USGS, CVIComparison of each scenario:
1. Current situation2. Economic growth scenario3. Scenarios with future changes in (i)
hazards, (ii) ecosystems and/or (iii) measures adopted
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Summary
Each scale presents different features (i.e. data) and requires
different tools
Processes-integrated vs Processes-resolving tools
Overall, a similar approach = Risk Framework
By comparison of scenarios (risk together with the other terms):
identify where and (possibly) what “solutions” to study
further
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Thank you
I.J. Losada F.J. Méndez
Borja G. Reguero [email protected]
Sources of pictures in the presentation: TNC, NOAA, USACE, USGS, Swiss Re, online press
Acknowledgements: ECLAC, OECC-SP Gob., NOAA, TNC, NatCap
M. BeckC. Sheppard
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Example of risk integration 1: Erosion Risk (Sandy Beaches)
Beaches as a resource Urban beaches as a natural protection
2 functions:
Coastal Urban areas protection Resource (Tourism)
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00
h
h
h
t
t t
t
R
R R
R a
Present
Pathway
Risk
Source
Receptor
Ecological
Socioeconomical
otR
( , ), ( , )ECON ECOLV z t V z t0( , )Zf z t
Hazard
Vulnerability
0 2010t Scenario 2025,2055,2085ht
Pathway
Source
Receptor
( , )Z hf z t
Hazard
RiskhtR
Do nothing0
0h
h
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t
t t
t
R
R R
R a
Mitigationoption
0t t ht t
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f(R)
• change vulnerability• change hazard
V(z)
f(z)
Risk Assessment in a changing climate
( ) ( ) ( ) ,ZR f z E z V z dz
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SourcesPathways
Receptors & Consequences
INPUTS OUTPUTSFUNCTION
hs, tp, wave_dir, eta_ast, eta_met - offshore_to_coast - hs, tp, wave_dir, eta,depth, vel_x, vel_yhs, tp, wave_dir, eta_ast, eta_met, bathy_dir,… - beach- xb, hs, q_long, v_long, dean_par,depthhs, tp,wave_dir, eta, bathy_dir, h_ini, h_end - shoal- hs, wave_dirhs, eta, hc, length - sea_wall- q
FLOODING MODELdepth, population, patrimonial_value - inland_consequences- loss_life, edrvel_x, vel_y, habitat_id - outland_consequences- evi