co2 emissions, a review of the uk domestic target

Edward William Jolly MSc BEng (Hons) MCIBSE LEED AP CO2 Emissions,

A Review of The United Kingdom’s Domestic Target

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CO2 Emissions, A Review of The United Kingdom’s

Domestic Target Edward William Jolly MSc BEng (Hons) MCIBSE LEED AP ABSTRACT This paper provides a review of CO2 emissions within the UK. A detailed account of all the fundamental world conferences and steps taken to curtail CO2 emissions globally is provided. The review considers the International, European and the United Kingdom’s (UK) specific CO2 emission reduction targets established by the Kyoto Protocol (KP) and also analyses the UK governments even more challenging 20% CO2 emission reduction target by 2010. Government schemes, papers & legislation to achieve this domestic goal are reviewed focussing upon the mechanisms in place working to achieve the target and mechanisms in place working against the target. CO2 emissions predictions by the UK government are analysed until 2010 and the review concludes a UK shortfall from the domestic target of approximately 10.5MtC of which the Built Environment sector accounts for 5MtC. A case study focuses upon the difference of CO2 emission between a sustainable and a non-sustainable residential development. An analysis is presented providing the CO2 emission from each building. Through a process of mathematics the sustain-ably constructed building identifies a difference of CO2 emissions from the non-sustainable building. This difference is then divided into the UK domestic target shortfall. The answer of 500,000 equates to the required number of similar sized sustainable construction projects within the UK to bring the Built Environment sector back on tract to meet the UK CO2 Emission, 20% Domestic Target by 2010.



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INTRODUCTION Climate Change (CC) and Global Warming (GW) are unequivocally the biggest and most fundamental problems facing planet earth and mankind today. CC and GW is the greatest environmental challenge facing mankind today as they are expected to have a cataclysmic effect across the globe. Rising global temperatures will bring changes in weather patterns, rising sea levels and increased frequency and intensity of extreme weather events. The effects will be felt globally and time scale is subject to the sensitivity of our climate system. The philosophy of the Kyoto Protocol (KP) [1] stipulates the worst effects of CC can be avoided if greenhouse gases incorporating carbon dioxide (CO2) in the atmosphere are stabilised instead of being allowed to increase on planet Earth. A detailed account of all the fundamental world conferences and steps taken to curtail CO2 emission globally is provided. This paper considers the United Kingdom’s (UK) specific CO2 emission reduction target established by the KP. The UK is striving to pioneer the way forward for CO2 emission reduction and has subsequently set an even more challenging domestic goal. The target is analysed taking into account government schemes, papers & legislation put in place to achieve this more stringent objective. Mechanisms in place working to achieve the target and mechanisms in place working against the target are evaluated. Projected CO2 emission reduction by the UK government is analysed until 2010 and a shortfall is identified. The construction industry is pivotal to a successful achievement of the domestic goal. Sustainable construction undoubtedly reduces CO2 emissions. In order for the review to provide and authoritative conclusion, the paper provides a residential case study. The case study concentrates on the difference of CO2 emission between sustainable and non-sustainable construction. An analysis of two residential buildings are presented focussing upon building fabric, ‘U’ values, heat gains, heat losses, benchmark BRE

assessments & concludes with respective CO2 emissions from each development. The UK domestic target is once more defined, in particular the anticipated CO2 emission shortfall. Through a process of mathematics the sustainable construction case study identifies a difference of CO2 emissions from the non-sustainable building. This difference is then divided into the domestic target shortfall. The answer generally equates to the required number of sustainable construction projects required to place the UK on track for an achievable domestic goal. THE ROAD TO KYOTO In 1896 Svante Arrhenius, suggested that changes in CO2 levels over 100,000 year time scales were a critical factor in the natural cycles between ice ages [2]. Seuss and Revelle in 1957 were scientists with the Scripps Institute of Oceanography (SIO) [3]. They reported CO2 emitted into the atmosphere by industrial activities was not being absorbed by the oceans. They suggested the increase of CO2 in the atmosphere is "a large-scale geophysical experiment" with the Earth’s climate. Keeling in 1958, was a scientist with the Scripps Institute, he began the first reliable and continuous measurements of atmospheric CO2 [4]. Stockholm 1972 saw the first United Nations (UN) Conference on the human environment [5]. CC was identified as a pressing issue. The UN initiated the Environment Programme. Geneva 1979 saw the first World Climate Conference [6]. The World Climate Program was formed to coordinate global research on CC and collect scientific data. Villach (Austria) Conference in 1985 issued a warning that "Many important economic decisions are based on the assumption that past climate is a reliable guide to the future. This is no longer a good assumption." [7] The Montreal Protocol was established in 1987. Twenty-four countries agreed to freeze consumption of CFCs and halons at 1986 levels, and reduce consumption by 50% by the year 1997 [8].



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The Intergovernmental Panel on CC [9] (IPCC) was established in 1988 and was headed up by Bert Bolin. The IPCC was composed mainly of people who participated not only as science experts but also as official representatives of their government’s. The IPCC was collated by the UN Environment Programme and the World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) to assess the scientific research on CC and its environmental impacts. Figure Number 1 – Bert Bolin

The Conference on the Changing Atmosphere in Toronto 1988 identified a 20% reduction in CO2 emissions requirement [10]. The first assessment report by the IPCC was endorsed at Geneva 1990 [11] during the Second World Climate Conference. The conference suggested an international agreement to mitigate global warming. One of the outcomes of the UN Conference on Environment and Development (UNCED) in Rio de Janeiro 1992 [12] was that 154 nations signed the UNFCCC, voluntarily agreeing to stabilize greenhouse gas emissions at 1990 levels by the year 2000. The first assessment by the IPCC was released in 1995 [13]. The conclusion suggested “the balance of evidence suggests that there is a discernible human influence on global climate." Kyoto Japan in 1997 saw the birth of the KP when 159 nations negotiated a treaty setting out legally binding reduction targets.

INTERNATIONAL, EUROPEAN UNION, THE UK’S COMMITMENT AND THE DOMESTIC TARGET The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), and the provisions of the KP to that Convention stipulates developed countries have agreed that they will cut their overall emissions of greenhouse gases by 5.2% below 1990 levels by 2008-2012 [14]. Since Russia ratified the KP on 16th February 2005, the KP is now international law [15] and the targets are legally binding. The European Union (EU) and its Member States have agreed to meet a joint target of 8% reduction in greenhouse gas emissions below 1990 levels between 2008-2012 [16]. This 'bubble' arrangement allows the EU's target to be redistributed between member states (MS) to reflect their national circumstances, requirements for economic growth, and the scope for further emission reductions. In June 1998, the UK agreed to reduce its emissions by 12.5%, which is the UK’s legally binding target under the KP. The UK signed the UNFCCC on the 12th June at Rio de Janeiro 1992 and ratified it on the 8th December 1993 [17]. The Government is now obligated to meet the commitments of the UNFCCC. The UK Government has set a domestic goal to go further than the KP commitment and cut the UK’s emissions of CO2 by 20% below 1990 levels by 2010 [18] The 2003 Energy White Paper (EWP) announced that the government would put the UK on a pathway to achieve CO2 emission reductions of 60% by 2050 [19].



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CURRENT UK EMISSIONS The graph below indicates CO2 emission data for the top ten polluting countries in 2004. It can be seen from the graph, the UK CO2 emissions equate to approximately 150MtC / year. Figure Number 2 – Top Ten Countries Carbon Emissions [20]

The UK currently contributes 2.3% towards the overall production of CO2 emission on earth. The production of CO2 within the UK is divided into various sectors: Figure Number 3 – Sectors Within The UK Producing CO2 Emissions [20]

PREDICTED UK EMISSIONS BY 2010 There have been various updates of CO2 emission predictions over time. The CC programme set out a wide-ranging package of policies and measures. It estimated that the policies could reduce the UK greenhouse gas emissions to 23% below 1990 levels by 2010 [21]. Furthermore, on the basis of the policies

that can be quantified, it was estimated the programme could also deliver a cut of 19% in CO2 by 2010. The main projections of the UK's emissions of CO2 are derived from the DTI energy model. This is basically a set of interlocking models of final user energy sectors and the electricity supply sector. It is predominantly a 'top down' model (see Fig 3 below), based around econometrically estimated relationships between energy demand, economic activity (income) and energy prices [22] The DTI produce and publish energy projections for the UK and anticipated CO2 emissions [21]. Figure Number 4 – Top Down Model [21]

Current projections indicate and by Governments own admission; the UK is currently not on target to achieve the domestic goal [23]. The projection of CO2 emissions by 2010 is currently 141.3MtC [24]. The UK domestic goal is 130.8MtC by 2010. This equates to a shortfall of 10.5MtC and an overall CO2 reduction of 14%. Although the KP and subsequently the EU targets are being achieved, this is considerably lower than the UK (20% reduction) domestic target. MECHANISMS IN PLACE WORKING TO ACHIEVE THE UK DOMESTIC TARGET There are various mechanisms in place working to achieve the UK CO2 emission reduction target. The governments Department of Trade and Industry (DTI) whose main driving force is to ensure the UK domestic target is achievable through the EWP. The Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs (DEFRA) are continually analysing the situation associated with CO2 emission reduction and bring emissions to the forefront of speeches and debates.

Industrial & Manufacturing

Process 20%

Domestic 28%

Transport32%

Buildings 20%



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Grants are often available through government to offset high pay-back periods for sustainable equipment thus ensuring financial feasibility. Professional bodies are also following the sustainability theme and often promote sustainable development during conferences. The most important mechanism in place working towards delivering a low carbon built environment is Building Regulations Part ‘L’ which specify levels of CO2 emission from construction projects must not be compromised during design. MECHANISMS IN PLACE WORKING AGAINST THE UK TARGET There are various mechanisms in place working against the UK CO2 emission reduction target. The construction industry is cost orientated and sustainable technologies are often discarded early in the design process due to anticipated increased Cap Ex. Grants which are often available to offset high Cap Ex and pay-back periods are difficult to obtain. The application process can be long winded and onerous. The current low cost of utilities is another problem as clients are not focussed on energy costs and only a minimal number of clients consider the life cycle cost of their buildings. Although the Building Regulations Part ‘L’ are in place to ensure energy conservation, building control knowledge of the complicated calculation process is limited. Scores of inefficient projects slip through the net because of inadequate building control understanding. MECHANISMS COMPARISON Considering the mechanisms working toward the target, the mechanisms working against the target and the actual target prediction for 2010, it is clear much more work is required to successfully meet the UK domestic goal. Generally, the mechanisms in place working to achieve the target are vast and with the correct implication could bring the UK back on track to meet the UK domestic goal. However, it appears the same mechanisms are working against themselves. Good measures have been put in place, generally by government, but the processes to implement the measures are obstructive.

CASE STUDY Two similar sized residential buildings have been selected for a case study. The Green Building is Sustainable and Heaton Park Development is not sustainable. In order to correctly establish the CO2 emissions from each development the following case study model has been utilised for each building Figure Number 5 – Case Study Model

CO2 Calculation Process The CO2 calculation process is complex and identifies the anticipated CO2 emission from the each development. The calculation method utilised to determine emissions from each development is defined within Schools Environmental Assessment Method (SEAM) by the department for Education and Employment. The calculation is defined on page 29 [25]. The calculation process considers construction and energy consumption principles and is therefore not limited to schools. The calculation procedure is undertaken by the following steps:



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• The floor areas, walls, windows and ‘U’ values for each apartment is measured,

• The total heat losses for each

apartment are calculated: • Q=UA(T1-T0) Watts, • The natural ventilation losses (Taken

as an average considering toilets) for each apartment are calculated:

• Q=0.33NV(T1-T0) Watts, • All gains, power, lighting, solar &

occupancy are calculated, • The total heating requirement

established in kWh • The anticipated electrical consumption

is estimated in kWh • The calculated gas and electricity

consumption is converted to CO2 emissions utilising conversion factors identified in Building Regulations Part ‘L’ (Gas @ 0.192 and Grid Supplied Electricity @ 0.422).

• Once the anticipated CO2 emission

has been calculated for each apartment the figures (KgCO2) are collated for the entire building on an annual basis i.e. kgCO2/year.

THE GREEN BUILDING Figure Number 6 – The Green Building

The Green Building is a sustainable development located in Macintosh Village, Manchester City Centre.

The Green Building provides a mixed-used complex, created for comfortable, modern and sustainable use. In addition to 32 apartments, there is a 120-place pre-school nursery. A number of sustainable design elements are incorporated in the Green Building, including a ten-storey cylindrical ‘drum’ housing the apartments which utilise both natural ventilation and underfloor heating supplied via condensing boilers. The building is complete with roof mounted solar collectors and a wind turbine providing power for the communal lighting. The Green Building is clad in a recyclable insulating material in cool green with contrasting wood panels. Brightly coloured sections are interspersed with floor-to-ceiling glazed panels and timber-framed windows. This encourages natural light in to the open environment. HEATON PARK DEVELOPMENT Figure Number 7 – Heaton Park

The Heaton Park Development is a non-sustainable building located in Manchester. The building comprises 23 apartments spread over 2 buildings (existing church and a new building). The converted church has 5 levels and the new building has 3 levels with a community centre. The Heaton Park development is not sustainable. The church refurbishment was exempt from building regulations and subsequently it was not necessary to increase the building performance with respect to energy efficiency.



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The new building was subject to Building Regulations. The developer wanted to maximise the profitability of the scheme and therefore discarded recommendations for the installation of sustainable technologies. CASE STUDY RESULTS CO2 emissions from each development were calculated with the following results utilising the case study model. Table Number 1 – CO2 Emissions from The Green Building and Heaton Park Development

Development KgCO2/Yr

The Green Building 53,000

Heaton Park Development 90,000

DISCUSSION Information provided in the case study shows the sustainable building can potentially save 37,000 KgCO2 / year ie: 90,000 – 53,000 = 37,000 KgCO2 / year It is important to note the potential savings through sustainable construction between two residential developments in Manchester is measured in CO2. The UK domestic target is measured in CO2 but the target shortfall is defined in carbon. The current projected shortfall of the UK domestic target is 10.5MtC. Buildings account for 47% emissions therefore 47% of the shortfall is attributed to the built environment. The Built environment should therefore consider saving approximately 5MtC/year to assist the UK to get back on track to meet the domestic target. Potential Savings in CO2 converted to Carbon, Calculation: (37000 x 12 ) / 44 = 10000KgC 10,000 / 1000 = 10 tC

Sustainable development at the residential case study can save 10 Tonnes Carbon annually. This divided into the UK built environment shortfall equates to a requirement of 500,000 similar sized sustainable projects within the UK. CONCLUSION The paper has provided an account of the main driving forces to successfully achieve the UK CO2 reduction targets namely, EWP, DEFRA, DTI, & various other government funded companies / trusts. The UK target under the KP to reduce a basket of six greenhouse gases to 12.5% below 1990 levels by 2008 - 2012 is currently on schedule. However, the domestic goal of a 20% reduction in CO2 emissions below 1990 levels by 2010 is currently not on target. The review identifies there will be a shortfall of approximately 10.5MtC for which approximately 47% is attributed to the built environment. The overall reduction of CO2 emission is currently running at approximately 14% below 1990 levels. This equates to a 6% CO2 emission shortfall from the domestic target. The mechanisms working to achieve the UK CO2 reduction target are mainly government initiated and can be very successful, in particular the building regulations as they are law. However, almost all the government initiated drivers in one way or another are working against themselves effectively becoming mechanisms working against the UK CO2 reduction targets. The case study analyses two residential developments. Consideration is given for a sustainable development against a non-sustainable development. The results conclude the sustainable development produces much less CO2 emission and can potentially save 10 Tonnes Carbon annually. Through calculation 500,000 similar sized projects would be required to bring the built environment sector back on track for the successful achievement of the UK domestic target. By Edward Jolly MSc BEng (Hons) MCIBSE LEED AP



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