co op-future-leaders-index-white-paper-june-2013

The Co-op Future Leaders IndexWhite Paper Part 1: Employment and Politics

June 2013

1 of 27White Paper Part 1 – Employment and Politics

Table of Contents

Executive Summary 3

Introduction 4

Background 5

Employment and Politics: Detailed Findings 6

Future Leaders: A Generation of Entrepreneurs 7

Future Leaders Immediate Job Opportunity Perceptions Subdued 10

How Much Will I Get Paid? Future Leader Salary Expectations Explored 15

Future Leaders and Political Apathy 18

Australia Today 22

Conclusion 25

Coming Up 26

Appendix: Research Approach 27

Co-op Future Leaders Index

June 2013


Executive summary

Against the backdrop of weakening employment conditions and during an election year, the Co-op commissioned a landmark research project to capture the true opinion of the young minds of Australia. In the first of a series of three white papers, an enlightening and unique understanding of Australia’s Future Leaders has emerged.

• Future Leaders: the entrepreneurial and independent generation: the Future Leaders Index found a significant 4 in 10 are planning to start their own business in the future. The results clearly demonstrate Australia’s Future Leaders are entrepreneurial in nature and are set to continue Australia’s significant predisposition towards work independence. However, critically almost 6 in 10 stated universities don’t do enough to help students learn how to run a business

• Future Leaders pessimistic about immediate employment prospects: The Index uncovered that half of Future Leaders feel the global downturn has significantly reduced overseas and local Australian employment opportunities for them. Furthermore, over half believe prospects for employment in their chosen field after university is not strong

• Many considering staying on at university due to paucity of employment roles: Over 4 in 10 Future Leaders (and over half of international students) stated they are considering staying on at university to undertake more study, citing paucity of job prospects in the current environment as the cause

• The majority considering postgraduate or master’s courses down the track: Almost 7 in 10 stated they were planning on a postgraduate course or master’s at some point in the future. The results paint an acute picture of the concern Future Leaders have about work opportunities, with uni becoming a very realistic safe haven in the short term

• Whilst economic downturn presents greater work challenges, Future Leaders still expect a befitting salary: Study found Future Leaders’ graduate salary expectations broadly sensible, with overall salary expectation of $50,700 soon after graduating. Findings emphasise Future Leaders’ realism about remuneration when entering the job market

• Underlying longer term confidence regarding relevance of degree to job market: Despite the employment pessimism, most still remain very confident that their degrees are both viable and recognisable in the job market and for their career. Results suggest pessimism around immediate employment prospects due to a more short term situational factor broadly outside of their control, rather than due to lack of confidence in their degree

• Future Leader political interest tepid: Future Leaders do not rank politics highly as an interest and see little differences between the main parties. However, whilst over half admit they don’t feel politically knowledgeable, they recognise that this lack of understanding is unsatisfactory

• Future Leaders however do care who gets elected, and moreover, are significantly more likely to vote Green: Future Leaders do care who gets elected, with only one third stating they don’t care who gets in at the next election. Investigating voting intentions in greater detail, it’s clearly evident that Future Leaders are leaning more strongly towards the Green vote, when compared to the total voting populace

• Future Leaders surprisingly negative regarding Australia’s cultural advancement: Almost half (48%) of Future Leaders believe Australia is still culturally behind much of the rest of the developed world. The findings clearly indicate this is an issue Australia now must start to seriously challenge itself on

• Australia deemed by Future Leaders as a key player in Asia, but lacking punch globally: A substantial 7 in 10 believe Australia has significant influence in the Asia region. However, this was simply not the case at a global level. Future Leaders still saw Australia as lacking punch on a worldwide scale with almost 6 in 10 seeing Australia having little influence globally.


June 2013


Introduction

This detailed investigation into Australia’s Future Leaders in 2013 provides a completely unique and fresh look at the young tertiary educated minds of Australia.

The Future Leaders Index, a first of its kind in Australia, confirms Australia’s Future Leaders are significantly concerned about the impact of the current economic situation in Australia on their own immediate employment prospects. As a result, many are using university as a buffer to protect them from the reality of the job market. Furthermore, the research highlights that a sizable proportion are contemplating setting up their own business in response to the paucity of employment opportunities at this time.

However, despite the employment pessimism, most still remain very confident that their degrees are both viable and recognisable in the job market in terms of their career. The Future Leaders Index findings suggest pessimism around immediate employment prospects are a more short term situational factor broadly outside of their control, rather than due to lack of confidence in their education.

At a political level, the results objectively confirm the tepid interest in the political landscape and the little perceived difference between the main parties. However, whilst Future Leaders admit they don’t feel politically knowledgeable, they recognise that this lack of understanding is unsatisfactory. Clear opportunities for all the political parties present themselves, so long as they start to talk to this group about the things that really matter to them.

On the subject of Australia at an international level, the Future Leaders Index has clearly identified our young minds see the country as a credible player in Asia. Furthermore, they are unquestionably positive about the future of Australia. However, there is a raft of core concerns about this country going forward that they want answers on.

This report, the first of a series of three white papers to be launched in 2013, takes a detailed look at three core areas, including:

• Future Leader attitudes to employment

• Attitudes to politics

• Australia today

Based on a wide-ranging market research program involving interviews with more than 2000 young Australians nationwide, this report breaks new ground in providing a validated understanding of Australia’s Future Leaders in 2013.


1 Full details of the qualitative and quantitative research approach are shown in the Appendix. June 2013


Background

The Co-op commissioned the insight room to run a multi-staged research program to uncover the attitudes and perceptions of their younger members and determine how and what they are thinking today as well as what they believe will be happening tomorrow.

The process followed a three-staged approach, involving an initial workshop with key Co-op staff members to brainstorm and uncover core issues, followed by a comprehensive multi-layered qualitative and quantitative research program to unearth and validate Future Leaders’ attitudes and opinions.

As part of a major launch of the research findings, a series of Future Leader white papers are being released across three phases in 2013:

• Phase 1: Employment and Politics (May)

• Phase 2: Lifestyle and Technology (July)

• Phase 3: Education and Australia (October)

Research Objectives

• To provide an informed, insightful portrait of the nation’s Future Leaders’ thoughts and opinions towards a range of important and topical issues. Focusing on:

• Perceptions of Australia now and foretelling life in 2020

• Attitudes to the environment

• Involvement in politics

• Students’ life skills and perceptions of employment opportunities

• Life plans post university

• Attitudes to property ownership

• The ‘coolest’ brands now

• Predictions on future brand popularity

• Inspirational people


1 Full details of the qualitative and quantitative research approach are shown in the Appendix June 2013


Part 1: Employment and Politics Detailed Findings


June 2013


Future Leaders – A Generation of Entrepreneurs“If I had eight hours to chop down a tree I would spend six hours sharpening my axe.” – Abraham Lincoln.

Australia – the small business nation

Australia is often described as ‘a nation of small businesses’ and ABS statistics attest to this. Of the 2.1 million businesses in Australia (ABS June 20112), over 1.3 million are non-employing with a further 740,000 employing less than 20 people.

Small business plays a critical role in the Australian economy, particularly in terms of contribution to employment, where they account for almost half of employment in the private non-financial sector. Small businesses are also essential in terms of both production (responsible for 35%) and innovation, with small business representing almost 90% of all businesses engaging in innovative activity3. According to the OECD, the contribution of small business to innovation is also on the rise as a result of new technologies reducing barriers to entry and increasing access to larger markets.

Future Leaders: entrepreneurial and independent

Against this statistical backdrop, the Future Leaders Index examined the likelihood of the nation’s Future Leaders to start their own business. Intriguingly, it found that a significant 4 in 10 are planning to start their own business in the future.

2 8165.0 - Counts of Australian Businesses, including Entries and Exits , Jun 2007 to Jun 2011 3 RBA Small Business Finance Roundtable | May 2012 http://www.abs.gov.au/website

Recent ABS statistics highlight the prevalence of small businesses in Australia:

• 2,132,412 actively trading businesses in Australia as at June 2011.

• However, non-employing businesses account for the greatest proportion of both total businesses and business entries (61.2% of all businesses operating in June 2011 and 67.6% of business entries in 2010-11 were non-employers).

• In 2010-11, most business entries (93.5%) continued to occur in the micro business population, which comprises non-employing businesses and businesses employing between 1-4 employees.

• Of those businesses that survived from June 2010 to June 2011, both inflow and outflow were highest for businesses employing between 1-4 employees (65,523 and 91,232 respectively). Not only does this signify a high degree of churn in this category, but the relatively high outflow resulted in a net movement (outflow) of 25,709 businesses.

• All other employment size categories recorded net inflows and were led by non-employing businesses, with a net inflow of 23,788. This indicates that a large amount of businesses who employed between 1-4 employees at June 2010 dropped to be non-employing businesses at June 2011.

Source: 1. ABS Statistics (June 2011). 8165.0 - Counts of Australian Businesses, including Entries and Exits , Jun 2007 to Jun 2011


June 2013


Breaking the results down further, significantly almost half (45%) of males are planning on running their own business compared to just over one third (35%) of females. The results clearly demonstrate that Australia’s Future Leaders are entrepreneurial in nature and are set to continue Australia’s significant predisposition towards work independence. This desire for autonomy in the workplace is likely being driven in part by the more

precarious current state of the job market i.e. the sentiment may be to go it alone as other options are limited right now. However, it also may be because the global financial crisis highlighted to Future Leaders that they can no longer necessarily trust big companies for employment opportunities or even in terms of their ethics in the way they once did.

Total Female Male 17 - 20Years Old

21 - 23Years Old

24 - 29Years Old

Year 1/2Under-

grad

Year 3/4 Under-

grad

PostgradStudent

Metro Regional

Start your own business

39% 35% 45% 38% 40% 39% 36% 39% 41% 41% 35%

Table: Proportion of Future Leaders planning on starting their own business in the future by gender, age, education status and location

However, Australian business failure rates are high, suggesting it’s a challenging path

Revisiting ABS statistics in more detail, it is evident that business failure rates are high, particularly among the non-employing segment. This implies that many of Australia’s Future Leaders are likely to face quite significant head winds if they do take on the challenging path of setting up their own business:

“While non-employing new businesses account for 9 out of 10 start-ups, they are the most likely to fail, with a survival rate of just 4 in 10 (43%). Business survival rates in Australia are heavily influenced by the size of the business, with small businesses taking the brunt. New businesses with 20-199 employees have the best chance of survival (68%), followed by businesses with 5-19 employees (65%), 1-4 employees (59%) and 200+ employees (57%).

At an industrial level, start-ups are most likely to survive in Healthcare and Social Assistance (62%), Rental, Hiring and Real Estate Services (56%), and Financial and Insurance Services (55%). They are least likely to survive in Public Administration and Safety (38%), Administrative Support Services (41%), and Arts and Recreational Services (43%).”

Why do small businesses and entrepreneurs fail?

Examination by Tony Featherstone (a specialist in the area of small business and entrepreneurs) of 2005 to 2010 external administer reports supplied to ASIC, suggested that much of small business failure is self-inflicted, with poor strategic management, inadequate cash flow or high cash use ranking highly as causes for failure:

“First, poor financial control has risen from being a nominated cause of business failure in about 30 per cent of all external administrator reports to 33 per cent in 2010. Poor strategic management is easily the highest cause of business failure, featuring in about 43 per cent of all external administrator reports and remaining fairly constant over the past six years. Inadequate cash flow or high cash use also ranks high.

Poor economic conditions, although lower than several other causes, has jumped from 11 per cent in 2004 to 26 per cent in 2010, with a big rise in the past two financial years.”


June 2013


His research, whilst only focusing on solvency data (i.e. not covering the many more scenarios where businesses spend time in “work-outs” with banks in attempts to stay alive, or the vast number of ventures that technically have not failed but have performed below their owner’s expectations for years and thereby become prohibitive to support), concluded it was critical to ensure the business had a clear overriding strategy and ensure practical financial systems and record keeping are implemented, whist always watching cash flow. The oft quoted advice about working on your business rather than in it therefore remains poignant:

“The takeout from this analysis is simple: if you want to avoid business failure, focus first on strategy. Implement strong financial controls and record keeping, and keep a close watch on cash.

That sounds like obvious advice, yet too many small business owners I know don’t have detailed strategies. They often have poor records and weak cash flow controls.”

Are universities doing enough to equip students to run their own business?

The Future Leaders Index also questioned whether Future Leaders felt that universities were doing enough to equip students to learn how to run a business. Almost 6 in 10 agreed that universities don’t do enough to help students learn how to run a business (with only minor variations by subgroup), suggesting Future Leaders feel universities should be doing more to help them prepare for business ownership.

Whilst clear that many universities do have such courses (or courses with self-employed related components), perhaps this sentiment points more to a lack of course awareness or possible perceived lack of course content relevance.

However, irrespective of the cause, it is clear both theoretical and practical training around business planning and strategy, as well as education

establishing sound fundamental understanding of financial systems - in particular managing cash flow - should be at the top of any business related course agenda. Helping Future Leaders to understand what core elements they need to focus on to survive (read the importance of sharpening their business axe), will help breed a nation of successful businesses, not just small ones.

Table: Universities don’t do enough to help students learn how to run a business (% agree) by gender, age, education status and location


21 - 23Years Old

24 - 29Years Old

Year 1/2Under-

grad

Year 3/4 Under-

grad

PostgradStudent

Metro Regional

Universities don’t do enough to help students learn how to run a businesss

58% 58% 58% 51% 62% 59% 50% 58% 65% 61% 51%


June 2013


Future Leaders Immediate Job Opportunity Perceptions Subdued“At its May meeting, with inflation a little lower than had been expected, and growth of economic activity likely to remain below trend into next year, the Board judged that a further reduction in the cash rate would help to support sustainable growth in the economy” RBA, May Statement of Monetary Policy

Darker clouds on the employment horizon

Research by Graduate Careers Australia4 (June 2012) of over 100,000 graduates highlights the precarious nature of graduate employment over the past few years when compared to prior to the global economic downturn. The considerably sized survey, conducted in 2011 and reported in 2012, highlights that 76% of graduates were in full time employment in 2011 within 4 months of completing their degrees, down from 79% in 2009 and more significantly from 85% in 2008. The study concluded that:

“While employment prospects for new graduates showed continued improvement between 2004 and 2008, the global economic downturn negatively impacted these figures in 2009 and immediate employment prospects have remained flat since then. While many anticipated a recovery in the labour market for new graduates in 2010 and 2011, this did not eventuate, and these new employment figures suggest that recruiters have remained cautious in their hiring plans following the global economic downturn.”

More recent ABS and job ads data5compounds the gloomy perspective regarding Australian employment situation in general:

• Downward employment trend evident, including DEEWR job ads which were down 3.6% in April 2013, and SEEK job ads whose number declined 2.2% in April 2013 – the third consecutive monthly decline.

• Whilst ABS statistics in April ‘13 showed positive employment growth mom (month on month), this is against the backdrop of the broader general downward unemployment trend over the past year (April 2012 (4.9%) to April 2013 (5.5%)).

Whilst the monthly figures tend to bounce somewhat around due to seasonality and other short term factors, the overriding sentiment is clear – there just aren’t as many jobs going around – and Future Leaders are cognisant of this.

4 Graduate Careers Australia, June 2012. Employment and Salary Outcomes of Recent Higher Education Graduates. http://www.graduatecareers.com.au/ wp-content/uploads/2012/01/gca002770.pdf

5 ABS Job Vacancy Data. http://www.macrobusiness.com.au/2013/03/abs-job-vacancies-fall-to-3-year-low


June 2013


Future Leaders pessimistic about immediate employment prospectsWhen questioned, Future Leaders’ attitudes mirrored the pessimistic employment outlook outlined in the ABS and job vacancy data.

The Future Leaders Index uncovered that half of Future Leaders feel the global downturn has significantly reduced overseas (47% agree) and local Australian (51% agree) employment opportunities for them.

Furthermore, over half (52%) believe the prospects for employment in their chosen field immediately after university are not very strong, perhaps offering a possible explanation for at least some of the extent of their entrepreneurial aspirations and this senti-ment was consistent across all the different groups surveyed.

Interestingly, international students were much more likely to agree that the global economic downturn has reduced local Australian (67% agree) and overseas (60% agree) employment opportunities and were more likely to believe prospects for employment in

their chosen field immediately after university are not very strong (62% agree), reflecting a much more uncertain attitude amongst this group regarding imminent job prospects.

Table: Employment outlook by gender, age, education status and location

Table: Employment outlook by gender, age, education status and location

Total Female Male 17 - 20Years

Old

21 - 23Years

Old

24 - 29Years

Old

Year 1/2Under-

grad

Year 3/4 Under-

grad

PostgradStudent

Metro Regional

The global economic downturn (GFC) has significantly reduced the overseas employment opportunities for me

47% 45% 49% 41% 47% 50% 42% 47% 53% 49% 40%

The global economic down-turn (GFC) has significantly reduced the local Australian employment opportunities for me

51% 53% 47% 47% 52% 53% 50% 48% 53% 51% 51%

The prospects for employment in my chosen field immediately after leaving university are/were not really strong

52% 55% 48% 47% 55% 54% 47% 49% 58% 53% 50%

Total LocalStudent

International Student

The global economic downturn (GFC) has significantly reduced the overseas employmentopportunities for me 47% 45% 60%

The global economic downturn (GFC) has significantly reduced the local Australian employment opportunities for me 51% 50% 67%

The prospects for employment in my chosen field immediately after leaving university are/were not really strong

52% 51% 62%


June 2013


Consequently, over 4 in 10 Future Leaders (and over half of international students) stated they are considering staying on at university to undertake more study, citing paucity of job prospects in the current environment as the cause. Additionally, almost 7 in 10 (68%) are planning on a postgraduate

course or master’s at some point in future. The results paint an acute picture of the considerable concern Future Leaders have about immediate employment prospects, with university becoming a very realistic safe haven option in the short to medium term.

Furthermore, at a gender, age, education and geo-graphical subgroup level there is broad consistency

in the results, suggesting that, like the employment pessimism cited earlier, this is a nationwide attitude.

Table: Attitude to continuing education by local vs. international student

Table: Attitude to continuing education by gender, age, education status and location

Total LocalStudent


I’m considering staying on at university to undertake more study as the job prospects in the current economic climate don’t currently look that positive for me

47% 45% 60%

Do a postgraduate course/Masters 51% 50% 67%


21 - 23Years Old

24 - 29Years Old

Year 1/2Under-

grad

Year 3/4 Under-

grad

PostgradStudent

Metro Regional

I’m considering staying on at university toundertake more study as the job prospects in the current economic climate don’t currently look that positive for me

42% 42% 41% 42% 42% 40% 41% 39% 54% 44% 35%

Do a postgraduate course/Masters 68% 67% 69% 66% 67% 70% 65% 65% 77% 69% 65%


June 2013


Underlying longer term confidence regarding their degree, but international students again less positive

When Future Leaders were asked whether they believe their university degree will get them to where they want to go in their career, most still remain confident (73% agree) that their degrees are both viable and recognisable. This suggests that their pessimism around immediate employment prospects is perhaps due to a more short term situational

factor broadly outside of their control (e.g. a weaker economy), rather than due to a true lack of confidence in their degree. It also points to a general satisfaction with the nature and content of the degree itself, which in itself is a reassuring note for universities.

However, consistent with their more negative employment perceptions, international students were much less likely to feel confident (56% agree) that their university degree will get them to where they want to go given their immediate career aspirations. Perhaps it is unfair to directly compare local and international students given the quite different set

of situational circumstances each cohort faces, but nevertheless the findings point to international students being a significantly less confident group in terms of perceived career opportunities when compared with their local Australian counterparts, based on completing an Australian degree.

Table: Confidence in university degree regarding career aspirations by gender, age, education status and location

Table: Confidence in university degree regarding career aspirations by local vs. international student


21 - 23Years Old

24 - 29Years Old

Year 1/2Under-

grad

Year 3/4 Under-

grad

PostgradStudent

Metro Regional

I feel really confident that my university degree will get me to where I want to go with my immediatecareer aspirations

73% 73% 73% 77% 73% 66% 78% 72% 74% 71% 80%

Total LocalStudent


I feel really confident that my university degree will get me to where I want to go with my immediate career aspirations 73% 75% 56%


June 2013


An unhappy international student?

Investigating the international student area in more depth, the 2010-2014 International Students Strategy for Australia, a collaboration by Commonwealth, State and Territory governments through the Council of Australian Governments (COAG), made clear reference to current issues affecting this group, helping to start unravel why international students are less likely to see their degrees as being a significant enabler to their future career plans:

“International students are, by and large, satisfied with their Australian education experience. There are, however, a number of issues affecting international students that have become apparent and need to be addressed. Students have identified issues such as education quality, health and wellbeing, and the quality and accessibility of information as particularly important.”6

It is in no doubt that international students enhance Australia in a variety of ways including bringing different cultural experiences, languages, new ways of seeing and doing things as well as expanding Australia’s global networks and more broadly linking Australia back to the world. They are also very important from a financial and labour perspective:

“The international education sector is also very important economically. It is Australia’s third largest source of export income. International students supplement and diversify our labour force in the longer term if they meet Australia’s skills needs and choose to stay in or return to Australia.” 7

International students are evidently a critical group from an economic perspective and therefore they need to be carefully nurtured and provided with a fulfilling experience in Australia whilst they study. With this in mind, the findings from the Future Leaders Index highlights there is much greater understanding required regarding issues presented in the International Students Strategy for Australia, in order to help improve this group’s sense of confidence regarding the relevance of their degrees to their chosen career.

The results suggest greater focus and resource is required to help international students navigate their way through the Australian education system as ultimately this will a more satisfying university experience and therefore continue to establish Australia as being an inviting place for tertiary study.

6 2010-2014 International Students Strategy for Australia. http://archive.coag.gov.au/reports/docs/aus_international_students_strategy.pdf 7 2010-2014 International Students Strategy for Australia. http://archive.coag.gov.au/reports/docs/aus_international_students_strategy.pdf


June 2013


How Much Will I Get Paid? Future Leader Salary Expectations Explored“It is better to have a permanent income than to be fascinating.” – Oscar Wilde

Economic downturn presents greater work challenges, but Future Leaders still expect a befitting salary

As evidenced in the previous section, the Future Leaders Index identified that there is considerable apprehension felt amongst Future Leaders regarding potential job opportunities in the present economic climate. As part of the research, the Future Leaders Index also investigated Future Leaders expected pay and salary levels for their first job.

The study has found that Future Leaders’ salary expectations are broadly sensible, with the overall mean salary expectation being $50,700 soon after graduating. This very accurately matches the median annual starting salary reported by recent research from Graduate Careers Australia8, a study of over 100,000 graduates. In broad terms, what this emphasizes is that Future Leaders are in the main realistic about the kinds of remuneration they are likely to receive when entering the job market.

However, males and postgraduate students have higher expectations

When looking at the various Future Leader subgroups however, some differences are pronounced regarding salary expectations. Males’ expectations are significantly higher, with a mean salary expectation of $53,580 (compared to females $48,960), and over 4 in 10 (43%) of males in the study stated they’d be disappointed if they were on less than $60k, whereas just one third (32%) of females said this. The findings clearly demonstrate that male Future Leaders are already both more aspirational and assertive in their financial desires than their female counterparts, reflecting an established longer term trend for males vs. females’ salary levels. It also suggests males may be in for more of a shock than females when they come to discuss salary with their future employers.

8 Graduate Careers Australia, June 2012. Employment and Salary Outcomes of Recent Higher Education Graduates. http://www.graduatecareers.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2012/01/gca002770.pdf


June 2013


In light of their longer length of time in education, postgraduate salary expectations are also significantly higher compared to the norm, with mean expectations of $56,750 and almost half of them (48%) saying they’d be disappointed to be on less than $60k per annum. Postgraduates obviously see their extra training as deserving of higher financial reward and perhaps these hoped for increased rewards also point to why so many Future Leaders are planning on a postgraduate or master’s course in the future.

A salary ‘reality check’ in store for Future Leaders

The same Graduate Careers Australia research highlights that the 2011 median annual starting salary for Australian bachelor degree graduates was $50,000, representing 78% of the annual rate of male avg. weekly earnings (MAWE: $64,000). Reflecting the continued employer uncertainty against the backwash of the global downturn, this is lower than the 2009 graduate starting salary of 83% of male weekly average earnings.

The Graduate Careers Australia results show the graduate employment pay has tightened over the past couple of years in response to the economic downturn and indicates that employers are not valuing graduates as much as they did previously. In light of there being less full time graduate opportunities and a tightening of pay, it clearly reiterates that Future Leaders need to exhibit greater assertiveness in job application and greater caution around salary negotiation at this time.

Table: Universities don’t do enough to help students learn how to run a business (% agree) by gender, age, education status and location


21 - 23Years Old

24 - 29Years Old

Year 1/2Under-

grad

Year 3/4 Under-

grad

PostgradStudent

Metro Regional

Average Wage $50,718 $48,959 $53,583 $48,571 $49,897 $53,259 $47,738 $51,138 $56,762 $51,303 $49,395

Proportion stating disappointed if on lessthan $60k

36% 32% 43% 32% 35% 41% 30% 37% 48% 38% 30%


June 2013


Salary expectations quite different by course type

Further analysis of the Future Leaders Index highlights some large differences by course type.9 Engineering, Medicine, and Law student salary expectations are significantly higher, with 7 in 10 Engineering students, half of Law students and

almost 6 in 10 Medicine students in the study stating they’d be disappointed if they were on less than $60k. Unsurprisingly, in comparison, Creative Arts, Humanities, Education/Teaching and Languages student’s salary expectations are significantly lower than others. The results point to quite different salary expectations across different courses.

Table: Salary expectations average and proportion disappointed if <$60k by course type

Total Education/ Teaching

Business/Commerce

Law Anthropology,Humanities,

Arts

Accounting/Finance

Psychology Engineering Linguistics/Languages

Medicine,MedicalScience

Average Wage $50,718 $45,215 $53,583 $57,641 $43,520 $53,474 $51,845 $62,692 $44,951 $60,167


36% 22% 44% 51% 22% 37% 38% 70% 26% 58%

Total Biology EnvironmentalScience

ComputerScience/

InformationTechnology

Nursing Management Creative Arts/

Fine Arts

Economics Mathematics/Statistics

Marketing

Average Wage $50,718 $49,749 $49,522 $54,263 $50,018 $53,745 $38,993 $56,576 $55,479 $52,198


36% 30% 32% 45% 27% 45% 22% 54% 47% 40%

9 Note that all courses shown have sample size of 60 or more. Higher than total in green, lower than total in red, significant differences based on false discovery rate


June 2013


Future Leaders and Political Apathy“The price of apathy towards public affairs is to be ruled by evil men.” – Plato

Party Promises

In light of the current economic situation and in particular the more precarious recent employment statistics, both main political parties are promising to deliver more jobs in the lead up to the next federal election.

ALP says it has found work for around 1.5million Australians since 2009 and is introducing the high-speed National Broadband Network to help benefit businesses. Furthermore, Lib-NP promise to deliver one million new jobs in the next five years and create more jobs by reducing business costs and cutting taxes as well as by cutting red and green tape costs by $1 billion every year.

Future Leader political interest is tepid Despite these promises, the Future Leaders Index found that Future Leaders’ political interest is, at

best, tepid. They do not rank politics highly as an interest and see little differences between the main parties. However, whilst over half admit they don’t feel politically knowledgeable, they recognise that this lack of understanding is unsatisfactory.

Looking at the findings in more detail, only just over one third (37%) state they are really interested in politics, almost half (44%) believe that the political parties are so similar that it doesn’t really matter who wins the election and 6 in 10 (55%) state they don’t feel very knowledgeable about politics in general, with females and younger Future Leaders even more apathetic. However, two thirds clearly recognise they should know more, with just a third (32%) stating they don’t feel they need to understand politics, at least for now.

Table: Political interest by gender, age, education status and location


21 - 23Years Old

24 - 29Years Old

Year 1/2Under-

grad

Year 3/4 Under-

grad

PostgradStudent

Metro Regional

I’m really interested in politics 37% 32% 46% 32% 35% 43% 35% 38% 44% 38% 35%

The Australian political parties are so similar that it doesn’t really matter who wins the election

44% 44% 45% 42% 44% 46% 38% 42% 47% 46% 42%

I don’t feel very knowledgeable about politics in general

55% 63% 42% 62% 55% 50% 59% 55% 52% 54% 58%

I don’t really feel I need to understand politics, at least for now

32% 34% 27% 38% 35% 24% 35% 29% 34% 32% 31%


June 2013


The results definitively show that Future Leaders do not rank politics highly as an interest, with little perceived differences between the main political parties yet whilst over half admit they don’t feel knowledgeable about politics, they recognise this lack of understanding is far from ideal. The quotes cited right, from well-respected commentators help illustrate how such political apathy is widespread across the Australian populace and The Future Leaders Index demonstrably shows that it also spreads to the brightest young minds in Australia .

Future Leaders, however, do care who gets elected, and moreover, are more likely to vote Green Nevertheless, Future Leaders are concerned about who gets elected, with only one third (34%) stating they don’t care who gets in at the next election. Investigating voting intentions in more detail, it’s clearly evident that Future Leaders are leaning more strongly towards the Green vote10 , when compared to the total voting populace. In terms of subgroups, the Greens are especially popular with females, older Future Leaders and postgraduates.

10 Recent Roy Morgan Polls showed 11% of the nation vote for the Greens, whereas the Future Leader index showed a much higher stat amongst Future Leaders of 22%. Lib-NP’s popularity is down amongst Future Leaders, with 34% voting Lib-NP’s compared with the national figure of 47%.

“Indifference to politics: In Australia today there is a dangerous indifference to politics accompanied by a simmering resentment of politicians. Citizens who haven’t enough interest in the democratic process to stay even vaguely informed of the issues of the day have only one profound political conviction: that politicians can’t be trusted. Politicians show reciprocal cynicism in an electoral climate where a lie about mortgage rates has more impact than the truth about lies.”

(Senator John Faulkner, 2005)

“We have the self-satisfied, Australian electorate with its enormous sense of entitlement. Each and every perceived challenge to our incredibly comfortable, materially privileged way of life that is able to be confected by the mass media produces a ‘Pavlovian’ grumpiness with the government in the electorate. So politically apathetic are we that a widely quoted and much discussed recent Lowy Institute Poll revealed that just 60 per cent of Australians say democracy is preferable to any other kind of government, with only 39 per cent of 18 to 29 year olds supporting this proposition.

(Doug Evans, Climate Activist, 2010)

Table: Concern regarding who gets into power at next election by gender, age, education status and location


21 - 23Years Old

24 - 29Years Old

Year 1/2Under-

grad

Year 3/4 Under-

grad

PostgradStudent

Metro Regional

To be honest I don’t really care aboutwho gets in at the next election

34 34% 34% 39% 34% 30% 32% 33% 35% 34% 33%


June 2013


11 Note that the total voting intention score is skewed towards females, reflecting the nature of the Co-op database, which has an approximate 60/40 female skew. Even with this in mind, both Females and Male Future Leaders skew towards the Greens12 http://www.roymorgan.com/news/polls/2013/4880/

Table: Future Leader voting intention by gender, age, education status and location 11

Table: All voter voting intention by gender 12

Voting intention(future leaders)


21 - 23Years Old

24 - 29Years Old

Year 1/2Under-

grad

Year 3/4 Under-

grad

PostgradStudent

Metro Regional

ALP 29% 31% 26% 33% 27% 28% 28% 29% 29% 29% 30%

Lib-NP 34% 32% 37% 33% 36% 32% 34% 37% 28% 34% 33%

Greens 22% 24% 19% 18% 23% 23% 21% 22% 27% 23% 19%

Independant/Others 15% 14% 18% 17% 14% 16% 18% 12% 16% 15% 17%

Total 100% 100% 34% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%

Voting intention-Roy Morgan Poll (All voters)

(March 2013 average 4 data points)

Total Female Male

ALP 29% 31% 26%

Lib-NP 34% 32% 37%

Greens 22% 24% 19%

Independant/Others 15% 14% 18%

Total 100% 100% 34%


June 2013


Whilst voting for the Greens is often seen by political commentators as more of a strategic vote (i.e. more of a vote against the main political parties rather than a positive vote for the Green party), these voting results and also Future Leaders’

strong concern around the environment (which will be covered in subsequent papers), suggest this is a positive vote for an alternative party rather than a display of ‘back-turning’ against the two major parties.

10 Recent Roy Morgan Polls showed 11% of the nation vote for the Greens, whereas the Future Leader index showed a much higher stat amongst Future Leaders of 22%. Lib-NP’s popularity is down amongst Future Leaders, with 34% voting Lib-NP’s compared with the national figure of 47%.11 Note that the total voting intention score is skewed towards females, reflecting the nature of the Co-op database, which has an approximate 60/40 female skew. Even with this in mind, both Females and Male Future Leaders skew towards the Greens12 http://www.roymorgan.com/news/polls/2013/4880/

Tables: Voting intention by course studied


Total Education/ Teaching

Business/ Commerce

Law Anthropology Humanities,

Arts

Accounting/ Finance

Psychology Engineering Lingustics/ Languagees

Medicine,Medical Science

ALP 29% 36% 32% 22% 29% 21% 37% 18% 32% 34%

Lib-NP 34% 31% 46% 41% 16% 57% 25% 45% 22% 31%

Greens 22% 18% 8% 24% 39% 8% 27% 13% 31% 14%

Independant/Others 15% 15% 13% 14% 16% 15% 12% 24% 15% 22%

Total 100% 100% 34% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%


Total Biology Environmental Science

Computer Science/

Information Technology

Nursing Management Creative Arts/ Fine

Arts

Economics Mathmatics/ Statistics

Marketing

ALP 29% 32% 28% 37% 24% 37% 29% 32% 24% 31%

Lib-NP 34% 26% 28% 27% 48% 44% 27% 44% 36% 49%

Greens 22% 24% 36% 23% 10% 6% 27% 14% 32% 10%

Independant/Others 15% 18% 8% 12% 18% 13% 17% 10% 7% 10%

Total 100% 100% 34% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%


June 2013


The research points to a group of people who are concerned about the environment that they will inherit (and likely manage) and are voting Green as

a heartfelt response to what they see as being very real growing future environmental concerns.

Australia Today“When in Straya mate ave an avo. Yea, put one in me Maccas”The dumbing down of Australia, Michelle Henson

Is Australia still culturally inferior?

Views about the unsophisticated nature of Australian culture are well documented and the negative perception has persisted ever since arrival of the First Fleet of British ships in Sydney established the penal colony of New South Wales. In the 1950s the Melbourne critic AA Philips coined a neat description of the ‘disease of the Australian mind’: and his aphorism took hold: ‘the cultural cringe’.

Other work at the time (such as Patrick White’s The Prodigal Son, Robin Boyd’s The Australian Ugliness and Donald Horne’s The Lucky Country) contributed to this ‘cringe’ belief and for the next few decades set in place a confined perspective of Australia on a cultural level:

“‘Lucky country thinking’ came to have a similar emasculating effect as ‘cringe thinking’. Horne and Phillips framed the national debate so rigidly that it was hard for dissenting intellectuals to escape its confines. More depressing still, few seemed to want to – bagging Australia became a badge of sophistication: European sophistication. To be cultured in Australia was to deny Australian culture.” 13

However, over the past few decades there has been an explosion of internationally recognised and acclaimed Australian actors, directors, writers, poets, musicians, architects, dancers and artists, many of whom are regarded are leaders in their field. In his thought provoking essay, ‘Cultural Creep’, Nick Bryant highlights how Australia is now remedying this issue:

“What of cringe-thinking? Gough Whitlam’s nationalism, and the artistic advancement it nourished, dealt it a severe blow, as did celebrations for the Bicentennial and Sydney Olympics. An ever more interconnected world has made foreign books and films immediately available; the cultural lag is not so limiting, nor is there the nagging feeling that the country’s location means trailing the zeitgeist. Yet vestiges of the cringe still linger, like a once-virulent virus that has been controlled but not cured. Happily, a remedy lies beyond these shores, where something more communicable and infectious has taken hold: Australia’s cultural creep. Local artists are no longer inhibited by the crippling self-consciousness once the norm, nor do they exhibit national loathing.”

13 Thanks to Nick Bryant’s Great Essay: Cultural Creep by Nick Bryant. Griffith Review: A Quarterly of New Writing and Ideas.


June 2013


However, when considering Future Leaders’ perceptions on the subject, it appears that the ‘culturally inferior’ label is still stuck to ‘the lucky country’. When asked how Australia performs at a cultural level when compared to the rest of the

developed world, Future Leaders were surprisingly negative with almost half (48%) of Future Leaders believing Australia is still culturally behind much of the rest of the developed world.

Furthermore, this statistic is consistent across males, females, different age groups, student status and even where people live, worryingly suggesting it is more a ‘blanket’ opinion, than one particular group’s attitude. The only place found where this attitude was less prevalent was in Melbourne, where just 4 in 10 (42%) agreed with the cultural inferiority sentiment, suggesting that the capital of Victoria continues to be more likely to believe it can assert itself at a cultural level globally, when compared to the rest of Australia.

Without further investigation it’s impossible to tell what specific rationale this sentiment is referring to (e.g. whether it refers to a lack of cultural events, relative lack of depth of history, buildings, Australian societal conduct, relative lack of home grown artists/thinkers, etc.). However, the results themselves speak volumes about the underlying negative attitude this group has towards Australia on a cultural level and in many ways is a sombre reflection given how much this country does actually do (and succeeds in) in the arts and culture sphere - and has done over the last 30 years.

Not with-standing the more isolated Melbourne attitude, these research findings are surprising in so far that the results tell us that half of our educated young Australians believe the country they live in is inferior at a cultural level when compared to ‘equivalent’ developed countries. The findings clearly indicate this is an issue Australia now must start to seriously challenge itself on.

The Asian Century

The 21st century is often described as the Asian Century. Clearly outlined in the Australian Government’s Australia in the Asian Century White Paper, it is well documented that the impact of the dynamic rise of Asia over the past few years has already significantly transformed the local Australian economy and society:

“Asia’s extraordinary ascent has already changed the Australian economy, society and strategic environment. The scale and pace of the change still to come means Australia is entering a truly transformative period in our history.

Within only a few years, Asia will not only be the world’s largest producer of goods and services, it will also be the world’s largest consumer of them. It is already the most populous region in the world. In the future, it will also be home to the majority of the world’s middle class.”14

Table: Australian cultural attitudes vs. developed world by total, gender, age, education status and location


21 - 23Years Old

24 - 29Years Old

Year 1/2Under-

grad

Year 3/4 Under-

grad

PostgradStudent

Metro Regional

Culturally, Australia is still behind much of the rest of the developed world

48% 49% 47% 47% 49% 49% 48% 48% 53% 49% 48%

Note that all courses shown have sample size of 60 or more. Higher than total in green, lower than total in red, significant differences based on false discovery rate14 Australian Government: Australia in the Asian Century White Paper. http://asiancentury.dpmc.gov.au/white-paper/executive-summary


June 2013


The paper goes on to outline this transformation in more detail, in particular referencing the need for closer educational, cultural and people ties:

“For several decades, Australian businesses, exporters and the community have grown their footprint across the region. Today, for Australia, the minerals and energy boom is the most visible, but not the only, aspect of Asia’s rise. As the century unfolds, the growth in our region will impact on almost all of our economy and society.

An increasingly wealthy and mobile middle class is emerging in the region, creating new opportunities. They are demanding a diverse range of goods and services, from health and aged care to education to household goods and tourism, banking and financial services, as well as high quality food products.

Beyond economic gains, there are many valuable opportunities for building stronger relationships across the region, including through closer educational, cultural and people to people links.”15

Australia deemed by Future Leaders as a key player in Asia, but as lacking punch globally

The Future Leaders Index delved into perceptions regarding how influential they perceive Australia to be at both an Asian and global level. The results were enlightening, with Future Leaders seeing Australia having strong relevance within the Asia Pacific area, with a substantial 7 in 10 (72%) believing Australia has significant influence in the region. Furthermore, the results were very consistent by all the major subgroups.

However, this is simply not the case at a global level. Future Leaders still see Australia as lacking punch on a worldwide scale with almost 6 in 10 (55%) believing Australia has very little influence at a global level and this was again broadly consistent across all major subgroups.

The contradiction in these two statistics points to how Australia has significantly repositioned itself over the past 10 years towards Asia and the Future Leaders

Index concludes that Future Leaders already believe Australia sits with strong presence and influence at the ‘Asian table’.

Table: Australian Asian and global influence by total, gender, age, education status and location

Total Female Male 17 - 20Years

Old

21 - 23Years

Old

24 - 29Years

Old

Year 1/2Under-

grad

Year 3/4 Under-

grad

PostgradStudent

Metro Regional

Australia has very little influence at a global level

55% 54% 57% 51% 58% 55% 53% 55% 52% 55% 55%

Australia has significant influence in the Asia Pacific region

72% 73% 71% 74% 75% 69% 73% 74% 74% 72% 72%


15 Australian Government: Australia in the Asian Century White Paper. http://asiancentury.dpmc.gov.au/white-paper/executive-summary June 2013


Conclusion

The first of three Future Leaders Index white papers being launched in 2013 reveals young tertiary educated Australians are significantly concerned about their employment prospects in light of the current economic headwinds.

As a result Future Leaders are striving to be their own boss, are using university as a short term buffer to protect themselves from the reality of the job market, whilst, encouragingly, remain confident about the relevance of their degree to their long term careers.

Part 1 of the Future Leaders Index has also confirmed apathy regarding the political landscape, a worrying perspective of Australia culturally and also of the limited influence of Australia globally. However, Future Leaders clearly recognise Australia has turned its head towards the Asian subcontinent and is deemed a critical player in the region as we move further into the ‘Asian century’.

The first Future Leaders Index white paper reveals the emerging issues facing young educated Australians in 2013 are both significant and wide ranging. Contextually, this group will enter a job market shaped by the ongoing global macro-economic climate, the resultant impact of the end of an unprecedented resources boom on living standards and the national sacrifices it will create, the rapid change in the technological landscape and its effect on their employment choices, a greater savings conscious Australia as well as declining national productivity rates. These issues will likely prove a rude awakening; especially given Future Leaders have only experienced buoyant economic growth in Australia in their lifetime.


June 2013


Coming Up…The Future Leaders Index is the first of its kind in taking a unique look at the opinions and attitudes of our educated young minds. As part of an extensive program of research being delivered in 2013, the Co-op will be launching two more white papers this year to complement this first detailed report:

Part 2: Lifestyles and Technology:

The second of three white papers being launched in July will identify Future Leaders’ life intentions, individuals who inspire them, property ambitions, the distractions of technology, attitudes towards social media and perceptions of brands both today and tomorrow.

Part 3: Education and Australia:

The final white paper, to be launched in October, will delve further into Future Leaders’ education attitudes and opinion on Australia today and tomorrow. The paper will cover attitudes to preparedness for life after university, perceptions towards their university degree, opinion towards Australia today and in 2020 and thoughts on the environment.


June 2013


Appendix

Research Approach

Qualitative Research

Quantitative Research

Significance testing was conducted on the quantitative data using False Discovery Rate statistical method. Data coloured in green is significantly higher and data coloured red is significantly lower than other scores in that dataset at p0.05 (95% confidence level).

Focus Groups with Co-op Members

Year 1 and 2 Students, 18 – 21 years 1

Year 3 and 4 Students, 21 – 24 years 1

Post Graduates, 24 – 32 years 1

Co-op Members and Lapsed Members1 Sample Weighted Sample2

Group 1: Year 1 and Year 2 Students 932 641 (31%)

Group 2: Year 3 and Year 4 Students 585 595 (29%)

Current Members, Not Students 385 484 (24%)

Lapsed Members, Not Students 151 333 (16%)

Female 1431 1272 (62%)

Male 622 781 (38%)

Total 2053 2053 (100%)

1. Current members defined as having bought from Co-op in < 12 months, Lapsed members defined as having bought from the Co-op in < 12-24 months

2. Sample data rim weighted by Group Size, Age, Gender and Location to match the Co-op Member Population.


June 2013


co op-future-leaders-index-white-paper-june-2013

Technology

half of future leaders

concern future leaders

future leaders realism

unsatisfactory future

coop future leaders

degree future leader

employment pessimism

immediate employment