cni indicators issn 1983-621x • year 18 • number 3 • march 2016...

In March, the Industrial Indicators showed virtually no changes in the adverse environment of industrial activity, which continues to have significant impacts on employment in the sector. After growing for two months in a row, industrial real sales fell by 1.2% in March 2016 on a month-over-month seasonally adjusted basis. Hours worked in production held virtually steady, up by 0.2% on the same comparison basis. Both indices are signifi-cantly down as compared to March last year: -14.5% (sales) and -9.9% (hours worked).

Jobs keep falling, as industrial activity remains low

Industrial Indicators - March 2016 Month-over-month variation - seasonally adjusted

Ç REAL SALES Down by 1.2%

Ç HOURS WORKED IN PRODUCTION Up by 0.2%Indústria Petrolífera

Indústria Química

Pequena Média Grande

Indústrias Diversas

Indústria da Construção Indústria de Energia

Ç CAPACITY UTILIZATIONDown by 0.3 percentage points

Capacity utilization experienced another decline (comparing the seasonally adjusted indices), partly reversing last month’s growth. As a result, the indica-tor fell again to 77.4%, hitting its second lowest level in the historical series (its all-time low was 77.1% in January this year).

In this scenario, employment has continued its long downward trend for the fourteenth consecutive month, down by 10.3% in the period. Total payroll has dropped for nine months in a row, accumulating an 8.3% decline. Average earnings posted growth in the month (0.2% in seasonally adjusted terms), but is down by 0.9% on a year-on-year basis.

Ç EMPLOYMENT Down by 0.6%

Ç REAL TOTAL PAYROLL Down by 0.3%

Ç REAL AVERAGE EARNINGSUp by 0.2%

INDUSTRIAL INDICATORS

CNI IndicatorsISSN 1983-621X • Year 18 • Number 3 • March 2016

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Industrial indicatorsISSN 1983-621X • Year 18 • Number 3 • March 2016

March sees stability Excluding seasonal factors, hours worked posted growth of 0.2% from February to March. The indicator has remained stable at low levels: down by 10.5% in the first quarter of 2016 on a year-on-year basis.

Hours worked in productionSeasonally adjusted (Fixed-base index: 2006 average = 100)

Long-standing downward trendEmployment has been falling steadily for fourteen months in a row. Between February and March, the index fell by 0.6% (in the seasonally adjusted series). Industrial jobs are virtually at the same average level as in 2006 (again, on a seasonally adjusted basis). The indicator is down by 9.3% in the first quarter of 2016 as compared to the same period a year ago.

EmploymentSeasonally adjusted (fixed-base index: 2006 average = 100)

Sales down after posting two straight gains Industrial sales fell by 1.2% in March as compared to February (excluding seasonal factors). In the first quarter of 2016, the indicator is down by 13.2% from the same period the year before.

Real SalesSeasonally adjusted (fixed-base index: 2006 average = 100)

Mar/13 Sep/13 Mar/14 Sep/14 Mar/15 Sep/15 Mar/16

110

120

130

140


101

105

109

113

117


90

95

100

105

110

115

3



77

79

81

83

85

Indicator slightly up

Real average earnings

Real average earnings edged up by 0.2% in March 2016 on a month-over-month seasonally adjusted basis, reversing the decline observed in the previous month. In the first quarter of 2016, the indicator is down by 1.5% from the corresponding period the year before.

Seasonally adjusted (Fixed-base index: 2006 average = 100)

Deflator: INPC-IBGE

Capacity utilization near record-low levels

Capacity utilizationSeasonally adjusted (average percentage)

Deflator: INPC-IBGE

Capacity utilization experienced a 0.3-percentage point decline in seasonally adjusted terms, down from 77.7% in February to 77.4% in March. As a result, the indicator reversed part of last month’s increase and approached its all-time low in the series (77.1% in January). In the first quarter of 2016, capacity utilization is down by 2.7% as compared to the same period in the previous year.

77.4%

Indústria Petrolífera

Indústria Química

Pequena Média Grande

Indústrias Diversas

Indústria da Construção Indústria de Energia

Ninth consecutive decline Reflecting the fall in employment, real total payroll has also continued to trend downward. From February to March, total payroll in industry fell by 0.3%, marking the ninth consecutive decline in seasonally adjusted terms. In the quarter, the indicator is down by 10.7% as compared to the same quarter of 2015.

Real total payrollSeasonally-adjusted (Fixed-base index: 2006 average = 100)

Deflator: INPC-IBGE


115

120

125

130

135


110

115

120


1 Deflator: IPA/OG-FGV - 2 Deflator: INPC-IBGE

PERCENTAGE CHANGE MAR 2016 / FEB 2016 SEASONALLY ADJUSTED

MAR 2016 / MAR 2015 JAN-MAR 2016 /JAN-MAR 2015

Real sales1 -1.2 -14.5 -13.2

Worked hours in production 0.2 -9.9 -10.5

Employment -0.6 -9.2 -9.3

Real total payroll2 -0.3 -10.0 -10.7

Real average earnings2 0.2 -0.9 -1.5

AVERAGE PERCENTAGE MAR 2016 FEB 2016 MAR 2015

Capacity utilization 78.1 76.8 80.5

Capacity utilization - Seasonally adjusted 77.4 77.7 80.1

Resume of results - Industrial Indicators

INDUSTRIAL INDICATORS | Monthly Publication of the National Confederation of Industry - CNI | www.cni.org.br | Policy and Strategy Unit - DIRPE | Economic Policy Unit - PEC | Executive manager: Flávio Castelo Branco | Research and Competitiveness Unit - GPC | Executive manager: Renato da Fonseca | Team: Marcelo Souza Azevedo, Edson Velloso and Priscila Garcia | CNI Publishing Center | Graphic design supervision: Alisson Costa | Customer Service - Phone: +55 (61) 3317-9992 - email: [email protected] | This publication may be copied, provided that the source is cited. Document prepared on April 29, 2016.

Learn moreFor more information on the survey, including historical series and methodology, kindly visit the Industrial indicators website

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http://www.portaldaindustria.com.br/cni/en/statistics/2016/3/22/45/industrial-indicators-/

cni indicators issn 1983-621x • year 18 • number 3 • march 2016...

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