cnbc fx survey, may 7, 2015
DESCRIPTION
These survey results represent the opinions of 14 of the world’s top currency analysts and strategists.They responded to CNBC’s invitation to participate in our online survey. Their responses were collected on May 4-6, 2015. Participants were not required to answer every question.This is not intended to be a scientific poll and its results should not be extrapolated beyond those who did accept our invitation.TRANSCRIPT
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CNBC FX Survey May 7, 2015 Page 1 of 8
FX SURVEY May 7, 2015
These survey results represent the opinions of 14 of the worlds top currency analysts and strategists.
They responded to CNBCs invitation to participate in our online survey. Their responses were collected on May 4-6, 2015. Participants were not required to answer every question.
This is not intended to be a scientific poll and its results should not be extrapolated beyond those
who did accept our invitation.
1. What is your forecast for EURUSD as of ?
1.064
1.024 1.032
1.082
0.90
0.95
1.00
1.05
1.10
June 30 2015 Dec, 2015 Dec 31, 2016 Dec 31, 2017
Ave
rage
fo
reca
st
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CNBC FX Survey May 7, 2015 Page 2 of 8
FX SURVEY May 7, 2015
What is your forecast for USDJPY as of ?
121.43
124.64
127.08
123.67
110.00
112.00
114.00
116.00
118.00
120.00
122.00
124.00
126.00
128.00
130.00
June 30 2015 Dec, 2015 Dec 31, 2016 Dec 31, 2017
Ave
rage
fo
reca
st
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CNBC FX Survey May 7, 2015 Page 3 of 8
FX SURVEY May 7, 2015
What is your forecast for GBPUSD as of ?
1.475
1.455
1.468
1.503
1.35
1.37
1.39
1.41
1.43
1.45
1.47
1.49
1.51
1.53
1.55
June 30 2015 Dec, 2015 Dec 31, 2016 Dec 31, 2017
Ave
rage
fo
reca
st
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CNBC FX Survey May 7, 2015 Page 4 of 8
FX SURVEY May 7, 2015
2. What is the percentage chance EURUSD will hit parity in 2015? (0%=No chance, 100% = Certainty)
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
Pe
rce
nta
ge o
f re
spo
nd
en
ts
Percentage chance
Average: 49.2%
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CNBC FX Survey May 7, 2015 Page 5 of 8
FX SURVEY May 7, 2015
3. The currency markets have been marked by sharp volatility and major moves in past months. For the next twelve months, major currencies will be:
21%
50%
29%
0% 0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Less volatile Equally volatile More volatile Don't know/unsure
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CNBC FX Survey May 7, 2015 Page 6 of 8
FX SURVEY May 7, 2015
4. How active will each of the following central banks be in devaluing its currency over the next six months? (0=Not at all active, 10=Extremely active)
5.62 5.54 5.54
5.25
4.15
2.23
1.08
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
Japan Europe New
Zealand
Australia Canada Great
Britain
United
States
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CNBC FX Survey May 7, 2015 Page 7 of 8
FX SURVEY May 7, 2015
5. What is the percentage chance the U.S. will act to stem dollar strengthening in the next six months? (0%=No chance, 100% = Certainty)
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
Pe
rce
nta
ge o
f re
spo
nd
en
ts
Percentage chance
Average: 23.6%
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CNBC FX Survey May 7, 2015 Page 8 of 8
FX SURVEY May 7, 2015
6. What is your near-term outlook for currencies in emerging markets?
7%
64%
7%
21%
0% 0% 0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Extremely
negative
Somewhat
negative
Neutral Somewhat
positive
Extremely
positive
Don't
know/unsure