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  • 7/28/2019 CMC-15-7-13-PL

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  • 7/28/2019 CMC-15-7-13-PL

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    July 15, 2013 2

    CMC

    Exhibit1: RevenuenegativesurpriseledbyclosureofaturnkeyprojectinCustomerServiceinQ4FY13(Rsm)Y/eMarch Q1FY14 Q4FY13 QoQ Q1FY13 YoY Cons PLe Var(Act.Vs

    Est.)

    Sales 4,866 5,240 7.1% 4,523 7.6% 5,428 5,449 10.7%

    EBITDA 770 8185.8% 752 2.4% 879 872

    11.6%

    EBITDAMargin 15.8% 15.6% 22bps 16.6% 80bps 16.2% 16.0% 17bps

    PAT 531.3 613 13.4% 584 9.1% 674 675 21.3%

    EPS (diluted) 17.5 20.2 13.4% 19.28 9.1% 22.2 22.3 21.3%

    Source:CompanyData,Bloomberg,PLResearch

    Exhibit2: RevisingFY14andFY15estimatesdownwardNew Old Change

    FY14E FY15E FY14E FY15E FY14E FY15ERevenue 21,885 25,416 23,107 26,820

    5.3%

    5.2%EBITDAMargin 16.4% 15.8% 16.4% 15.8% 0bps 0bps

    EPS 93.6 107.2 99.7 113.9 6.1% 5.9%

    TargetPrice 1360 1430 4.9%Target Multiple 14 14 0.0%

    Source:CompanyData,PLResearch

    Exhibit3: IndiabusinessdeclinedsharplyQ1FY14 Q4FY13 QoQ Q1FY13 YoY

    CMC Ltd (Standalone) 2725 3358 18.8% 2663 2.3%

    CMC Americas & CMC eBiz 2,141 1,881 13.8% 1,860 15.1%

    Source:CompanyData,PLResearch

    Exhibit4: CustomerServicesdeclinedduetocompletionofturnkeyprojectinQ4FY13ByServiceOffering(Rsm) Q1FY14 Q4FY13 QoQ Q1FY13 YoYCustomer Services 966.8 1,560.8 38.1% 901.7 7.2%

    Systems Integration 2,929.6 2,717.4 7.8% 2,643.8 10.8%

    ITES 723.3 693.4 4.3% 713.5 1.4%

    Education & Training 144.2 143.6 0.4% 138.9 3.8%

    SEZ 102.3 124.4 17.8% 124.8 18.0%

    Unallocable Revenue 100.7 40.6 148.2% 57.0 76.6%

    %ofTotalCustomer Services 19.5% 29.6% 1010bps 19.7% 23bps

    Systems Integration 59.0% 51.5% 752bps 57.7% 126bps

    ITES 14.6% 13.1% 143bps 15.6% 102bps

    Education & Training 2.9% 2.7% 18bps 3.0% 13bps

    SEZ 2.1% 2.4% 30bps 2.7% 67bps

    Unallocable Revenue 2.0% 0.8% 126bps 1.2% 78bps

    Source:CompanyData,PLResearch

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    July 15, 2013 3

    CMC

    Exhibit5: SegmentResults(PBIT)ByServiceOffering(Rsm) Q1FY14 Q4FY13 QoQ Q1FY13 YoYCustomer Services 78.7 81.7 3.7% 98.6 20.2%

    Systems Integration 616.1 626.3 1.6% 558.6 10.3%

    ITES 187.1 168.4 11.1% 200.9 6.9%

    Education & Training 20.8 25.7 18.9% 5.9 254.9%

    SEZ 77.0 100.8 23.6% 99.8 22.9%

    PBITMargin(%)Customer Services 8% 5% 290bps 11% 279bps

    Systems Integration 21% 23% 202bps 21% 10bps

    ITES 26% 24% 159bps 28% 230bps

    Education & Training 14% 18% 344bps 4% 1022bps

    SEZ 75% 81% 577bps 80% 470bps

    Source:CompanyData,PLResearch

    Exhibit6: CapitalEmployedByServiceOffering(Rsm) Q1FY14 Q4FY13 QoQ Q1FY13 YoYCustomer Services 1,012.0 1,193.1 15.2% 672.4 50.5%

    Systems Integration 2,279.2 1,748.7 30.3% 1,687.1 35.1%

    ITES 697.5 754.5 7.6% 663.7 5.1%

    Education & Training 78.4 51.5 52.1% 58.5 33.9%

    SEZ 3,070.4 2,853.6 7.6% 2,274.9 35.0%

    Source:CompanyData,PLResearch

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    July 15, 2013 4

    CMC

    IncomeStatement(Rsm)Y/eMarch 2012 2013 2014E 2015ENetRevenue 14,693 19,279 21,885 25,416Software Dev. Exp. 6,168 8,665 9,876 11,384

    Gross Profit 8,525 10,613 12,009 14,033

    Employee Cost 4,402 5,216 5,911 6,857

    Other Expenses 1,880 2,229 2,452 2,844EBITDA 2,243 3,168 3,646 4,332Depr. & Amortization 214 232 258 293

    Net Interest 2 4 4

    Other Income 175 132 300 239

    ProfitbeforeTax 2,204 3,066 3,684 4,273Total Tax 686 764 847 1,026

    ProfitafterTax 1,518 2,302 2,837 3,248Ex-Od items / Min. Int.

    Adj.PAT 1,518 2,302 2,837 3,248Avg.SharesO/S(m) 30.3 30.3 30.3 30.3EPS(Rs.) 50.1 76.0 93.6 107.2

    CashFlowAbstract(Rsm)Y/eMarch 2012 2013 2014E 2015EC/F from Operations 557 1,233 2,332 2,865

    C/F from Investing (184) 44 (2,188) (1,932)

    C/F from Financing (351) (435) (485) (545)

    Inc. / Dec. in Cash 23 842 (341) 388

    Opening Cash 565 532 1,374 1,033

    Closing Cash 588 1,374 1,033 1,421

    FCFF (738) 1,296 144 933

    FCFE (665) 1,317 144 933

    KeyFinancialMetricsY/eMarch 2012 2013 2014E 2015EGrowthRevenue (%) 35.5 31.2 13.5 16.1

    EBITDA (%) 6.5 41.2 15.1 18.8

    PAT (%) (15.4) 51.7 23.2 14.5

    EPS (%) (57.7) 51.7 23.2 14.5

    ProfitabilityEBITDA Margin (%) 15.3 16.4 16.7 17.0

    PAT Margin (%) 10.3 1 1.9 1 3.0 12.8

    RoCE (%) 18.7 24.5 23.6 22.6

    RoE (%) 21.3 26.8 26.7 24.7

    BalanceSheetNet Debt : Equity (0.1) (0.1) (0.1)

    Net Wrkng Cap. (days) ValuationPER (x) 27.0 17.8 14.5 12.6

    P / B (x) 5.3 4.3 3.5 2.8

    EV / EBITDA (x) 18.2 12.6 11.1 9.2

    EV / Sales (x) 2.8 2.1 1.8 1.6

    EarningsQualityEff. Tax Rate 31.1 24.9 23.0 24.0

    Other Inc / PBT 7.9 4.3 8.2 5.6

    Eff. Depr. Rate (%) 6.0 5.8 4.2 3.6

    FCFE / PAT (43.8) 57.2 5.1 28.7

    Source:CompanyData,PLResearch.

    BalanceSheetAbstract(Rsm)Y/eMarch 2012 2013 2014E 2015EShareholder's Funds 7,722 9,463 11,815 14,517

    Total Debt 396 417 417 417

    Other Liabilities

    TotalLiabilities 8,118 9,879 12,231 14,933Net Fixed Assets 2,915 3,697 5,627 7,265Goodwill 3 3 3 3

    Investments 2,922 2,381 2,381 2,381

    Net Current Assets 2,168 3,728 4,149 5,213

    Cash&Equivalents 588 1,374 1,033 1,421

    OtherCurrentAssets 5,954 6,901 8,932 10,198

    CurrentLiabilities 4,375 4,547 5,816 6,406

    Other Assets 110 71 71 71

    TotalAssets 8,118 9,879 12,231 14,933

    QuarterlyFinancials(Rsm)Y/eMarch Q2FY13 Q3FY13 Q4FY13 Q1FY14NetRevenue 4,586 4,930 5,240 4,866EBITDA 766 832 818 770%ofrevenue 16.7 16.9 15.6 15.8

    Depr. & Amortization 56 54 68 62

    Net Interest 2

    Other Income 11 23 41 101

    ProfitbeforeTax 721 801 789 809Total Tax 227 190 175 278

    ProfitafterTax 494 611 613 531Adj.PAT 494 611 613 531

    KeyOperatingMetricsY/e

    March

    2012

    2013 2014E 2015E

    Revenue (US$ mn) 305 353 381 446

    Rs/US$ 48 55 58 57

    Gross Margin 40 38 38 38

    Subcontracting Cost (as % of Revenue) 30 35 35 35

    Source:CompanyData,PLResearch.

  • 7/28/2019 CMC-15-7-13-PL

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    July 15, 2013 5

    CMC

    Prabhudas Lilladher Pvt. Ltd.

    3rd Floor, Sadhana House, 570, P. B. Marg, Worli, Mumbai-400 018, India

    Tel: (91 22) 6632 2222 Fax: (91 22) 6632 2209

    RatingDistributionofResearchCoverage

    26.4%

    52.8%

    19.2%

    1.6%

    0%

    10%

    20%

    30%

    40%

    50%

    60%

    BUY Accumulate Reduce Sell

    %ofT

    otalCoverage

    PLsRecommendationNomenclatureBUY : Over 15% Outperformance to Sensex over 12-months Accumulate : Outperformance to Sensex over 12-monthsReduce : Underperformance to Sensex over 12-months Sell : Over 15% underperformance to Sensex over 12-monthsTradingBuy : Over 10% absolute upside in 1-month TradingSell : Over 10% absolute decline in 1-monthNotRated(NR) : No specific call on the stock UnderReview(UR) : Rating likely to change shortly

    This document has been prepared by the Research Division of Prabhudas Lilladher Pvt. Ltd. Mumbai, India (PL) and is meant for use by the recipient only as

    information and is not for circulation. This document is not to be reported or copied or made available to others without prior permission of PL. It should not be

    considered or taken as an offer to sell or a solicitation to buy or sell any security.

    The information contained in this report has been obtained from sources that are considered to be reliable. However, PL has not independently verified the accuracy

    or completeness of the same. Neither PL nor any of its affiliates, its directors or its employees accept any responsibility of whatsoever nature for the information,

    statements and opinion given, made available or expressed herein or for any omission therein.

    Recipients of this report should be aware that past performance is not necessarily a guide to future performance and value of investments can go down as well. The

    suitability or otherwise of any investments will depend upon the recipient's particular circumstances and, in case of doubt, advice should be sought from an

    independent expert/advisor.

    Either PL or its affiliates or its directors or its employees or its representatives or its clients or their relatives may have position(s), make market, act as principal or

    engage in transactions of securities of companies referred to in this report and they may have used the research material prior to publication.

    We may from time to time solicit or perform investment banking or other services for any company mentioned in this document.