CHINA AND IRON OREHOPES AND REALITY CLYDE RUSSELL REUTERS 9 MARCH 2016

(Clyde Russell is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

WHAT WE KNOW

China’s economy growth rate is slowing

China is trying to re-engineer its economy

China aims to close excess capacity

Steel, aluminium, cement, ship-building targets

Commodity import volumes still robust, more differentiated

WHAT WE DON’T KNOW

Where will China’s growth bottom out?

Will China avoid hard landing (credit crisis, currency depreciation, capital outflows)?

Will China be able to restructure heavy industries?

Is it possible that China’s growth can accelerate to the levels where 1 billion tonnes of steel are needed a year?

“Misconceptions play a

prominent role in my

view of the world.” ― George Soros