CLIVAR Atlantic Implementation PanelCLIVAR Atlantic Implementation Panel

Peter Brandt (co-Chair) IfM-GEOMAR, Kiel

Laurent Terray (co-Chair) CERFACS, France

Molly Baringer NOAA/AOML, USA

Suzana Camargo LDEO, USA

Ping Chang Texas A&M, USA

Ruth Curry WHOI, USA

Tom Farrar WHOI, USA

Bogi Hansen FMRI, Faroe Islands

Yochanan Kushnir LDEO, USA

Mauricio Mata FURG Brazil

Mathieu Rouault Univ. Cape Town, South Africa

Doug Smith Hadley Centre, UK

Anne-Marie Treguier IFREMER, France

ICPO Contact: Nico Caltabiano

CLIVAR AIP Recent activitiesCLIVAR AIP Recent activities

Basin focusBasin focus: supporting CLIVAR science with sustained : supporting CLIVAR science with sustained observations and research on climate variability and observations and research on climate variability and predictabilitypredictability

• SAMOC III meeting, Rio de Janeiro/Niteroi, Brazil, 11-13 May 2010 • US AMOC Meeting (7-9 June 2010, Miami, FL, USA)US AMOC Meeting (7-9 June 2010, Miami, FL, USA)• Decadal Variability, Predictability and Prediction: Understanding the role of Decadal Variability, Predictability and Prediction: Understanding the role of

the Ocean (20 -23 Sep 2010) – Boulder (WGOMD/GSOP)the Ocean (20 -23 Sep 2010) – Boulder (WGOMD/GSOP)• AIP/VAMOS Workshop on Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere-Land Processes in

the Tropical Atlantic, Miami, FL, USA, 23-25 March 2011• 11th AIP meeting, Miami, FL, USA, 25-26 March 2011 • Rapid-US AMOC international conference, Bristol, U.K, 12-15 July 2011Rapid-US AMOC international conference, Bristol, U.K, 12-15 July 2011• Contribution to several sessions for WCRP OSC (24-28 October 2011, Contribution to several sessions for WCRP OSC (24-28 October 2011,

Denver, USA)Denver, USA)

CLIVAR AIP: Near-term issues and challenges CLIVAR AIP: Near-term issues and challenges

Current state and evolution of the Atlantic ocean observing systemCurrent state and evolution of the Atlantic ocean observing system

• MOC observational systemMOC observational system: : Encourage completion of trans-basin Encourage completion of trans-basin monitoring system for the time-varying strength of the AMOC at other latitudes monitoring system for the time-varying strength of the AMOC at other latitudes than 26.5°N (subpolar North Atlantic and subtropical South Atlantic). Assess than 26.5°N (subpolar North Atlantic and subtropical South Atlantic). Assess the meridional coherence of AMOC changes and provide strong constraint on the meridional coherence of AMOC changes and provide strong constraint on climate models and synthesis products.climate models and synthesis products.

• THOR ending in 2012THOR ending in 2012: : THOR built on, maintained and completed previous THOR built on, maintained and completed previous efforts within the subpolar gyre: time series observation of fluxes and efforts within the subpolar gyre: time series observation of fluxes and properties span 1 - 2 decades at many sites. Funding is running out next year properties span 1 - 2 decades at many sites. Funding is running out next year both for THOR and non-THOR activities. Continuation might be possible (EU both for THOR and non-THOR activities. Continuation might be possible (EU + German funding + coordination effort with OSNAP needed)+ German funding + coordination effort with OSNAP needed)

• TACE Ending: TACE Ending: need for a synthesis product allowing an optimal use of need for a synthesis product allowing an optimal use of existing data sets for model-data comparison (high-res CORE forcing existing data sets for model-data comparison (high-res CORE forcing simulations)simulations)

• PIRATAPIRATA: : Keep trying to find funding to maintain the South East extension Keep trying to find funding to maintain the South East extension (need to buy one additional mooring, include radiometers)(need to buy one additional mooring, include radiometers)

• Lack of deep ocean measurements:Lack of deep ocean measurements: Encourage community action to Encourage community action to address this gap, support of OOPC recommendationsaddress this gap, support of OOPC recommendations

WORKSHOP ON COUPLED OCEAN ATMOSPHERE LAND PROCESSES IN THE ‐ ‐TROPICAL ATLANTIC. Miami, FL, March 23-25, 2011 (with WCRP and US agencies support)

Meeting Objectives1. Develop a coherent synthesis of the state-of-the-art knowledge on Atlantic biases and their causes for the southeast and eastern tropical Atlantic and further sharpen hypotheses2. Articulate an effective way forward3. Identify an international network of interested, active researchers4. Define an appropriate geographical focus or foci

1. Enthusiasm high (85 registered participants, all the talks on the CLIVAR web page)2. UK, US and French atmospheric scientists (NERC,Met Office, VOCALS, NASA, CNRM) motivated to invest in southeast Atlantic b/c of biomass-burning aerosol and low cloud. 3. On going discussion on the ocean side on process study interest and feasibility (upwelling, wind-sst feedbacks, role of ocean eddies, biogeochemistry), regional modeling studies4. On going writing of a ‘task team’ proposal to assemble a working group (across WCRP) to address #1 and #2, a nested two-tier geographic focus suggested, with inner tier bounded by ~ 25W-15E, 25S-5N.

Meeting Assessment

CLIVAR AIP: Near-term issues and challenges CLIVAR AIP: Near-term issues and challenges

CLIVAR AIP: Near-term issues and challenges CLIVAR AIP: Near-term issues and challenges

Model and ocean synthesis data analysis

Diagnostic subprojects within the group to look at various model simulations and synthesis products• CMIP5 Ocean and atmosphere outputs with a focus on decadal hindcasts and 20C3M simulations (observed ocean sections, surface salinity, heat content, meridional and zonal Atlantic modes). Analyze predictability and model biases.• Assess whether ocean synthesis products are able to reproduce recent interannual to decadal variability in the Atlantic• Question: what would be the future role of basin panels ? Where is the interface with the other panels ?

Interannual SST and atmospheric variability forced by equatorial Atlantic Ocean deep jets

Brandt et al. 2011, Nature

© Crown copyright Met Office

Skill in tropical Atlantic atmosphere in idealised experiments

Dunstone et al, 2011, submitted

• Large set of idealised model experiments (>25 start dates)

• Monthly mean T & S ocean data is assimilated at all model locations (no atmosphere assimilation)

• Stippled regions are significant at the 5% level

• Blue box shows the main hurricane development region (MDR)

JJASON seasons, Forecast years 2-6:

temperature

zonal wind shear

precipitation

MSLP

Skill originates from sub-polar gyre

Dunstone et al, 2011, submitted

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