climate trends and wheat straw supplies dave sauchyn, prairie adaptation research collaborative,...
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Climate Trends and Wheat Straw Supplies Dave Sauchyn, Prairie Adaptation Research Collaborative, University of Regina. North American Mushroom Conference, Vancouver, 23 June 2013. What is climate change?. Climate: from klima (ancient Greek) meaning inclination: - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
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Climate Trends and Wheat Straw Supplies
Dave Sauchyn, Prairie Adaptation Research Collaborative, University of Regina
North American Mushroom Conference, Vancouver, 23 June 2013
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Climate: from klima (ancient Greek) meaning inclination: a tendency, characteristic likelihood
• climate is the statistics of weather• “weather is what we get,
climate is what we expect”
What is climate change?
Climate change: a statistically significant variation in the mean climate or in its variability, persisting for an extended period (decades or longer).
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Source: NASA <data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs_v3>
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April 2013 was the 339th consecutive month (more than 28 years) with a global temperature above the 20th century average.
Every month has been warmer than average since May, 1985.
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Question 1
A recent study reviewed 13,950 scientific articles on the topic of climate change. How many of these articles concluded that there was no human caused global warming? 6950209243210
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Question 2
Anthropogenic (human caused) global warming is a relatively recent scientific discovery TrueFalse
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Joseph Fourier (1768 –1830) – 1824Svante August Arrhenius (1859 –1927) - 1896 Guy Stewart Callendar (1898 – 1964) - 1938
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Question 3
The concentration of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere currently is 300 ppm330 ppm375 ppm400 ppm
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Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide
Source: NASA <climate.nasa.gov/evidence>
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The level of the most important heat-trapping gas in the atmosphere, carbon dioxide, has passed a long-feared milestone, scientists reported Friday, reaching a concentration not seen on the Earth for millions of years.
Scientific monitors reported that the gas had reached an average daily level that surpassed 400 parts per million – just an odometer moment in one sense, but also a sobering reminder that decades of efforts to bring human-produced emissions under control are faltering.
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data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs/
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Average Winter Temperatures (° C), Edmonton, 1881-2010
1969: - 20° C
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David Sauchyn- 6° F = - 21° C
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Thanks to:
Lawrence Zimmermann, Highline Mushrooms (Ontario)Burton Loveday, Loveday Mushrooms (Manitoba)Mike Manion, All Seasons Mushrooms (Alberta & BC)Don Needham, Hy-Tech Compost (U.S.)
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Planting intentions for 2013 in M acres (Statistics Canada)
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http://storymaps.esri.com/stories/feedingtheworld/
Global Crop Production
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Observed Long-Term Trends for Agroclimatic Conditions in CanadaQian et al. 2010
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EGDD: effective growing degree-days computed by applying a day-length factor to GDD
Qian et al. 2010
GSS: growing season start
GSE: growing season end
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Percentage of stations showing a significant positive trend (++) or a significant negative trend (--)
EGDD: effective growing degree-days computed by applying a day-length factor to GDD
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We find a significant increasing trend in the length of the growing season and in the associated available heat. The winter temperature is less damaging and the frost-free periods are longer. We also find trends in precipitation-related indices that indicate more availability of water, though the trend in the main agriculture region is less significant.
QIAN et al. 2010
Observed Long-Term Trends for Agroclimatic Conditions in Canada
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CMI is a measure of variability in the ratio of plant water demand to precipitation. It is an indicator of highly variable climates potentially vulnerable to periodic water stress.
www.unesco.orgInterannual Variation in Moisture
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Inter-Annual Moisture Variability, North America
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From: Sokhansanj et al. 2006. Production and distribution of cereal strawon the Canadian prairies.
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Question 4
Have you ever experienced a shortage of wheat straw due poor growing conditions, too little or too rain, in a wheat producing area? YesNo
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Annual Crop Yields (bu/ac), RM of Biggar, 1938-2010Source: www.agriculture.gov.sk.ca/rmyields
Precipitation deficit, Saskatoon
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October 2010
817 Natural Disasters
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1. Drought: Prairie provinces, 1980
3. Drought: Prairie provinces and Central and Southern ON, Jul 5-11 1988
4. Drought: Prairie provinces, 1979
5. Drought: Prairie provinces, 1984
2. Freezing rain: Ontario to New Brunswick, Jan 6-10 1998
* Drought, Prairies, 2001-02, $.58 B
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9. Drought: Prairie Provinces, 1931-193810. Drought: Prairie Provinces, 1989 12. Drought: Prairie Provinces, 1961
14. Drought: Western Canada, 1985 16. Drought: Prairie Provinces, 197717. Drought: Prairie Provinces, 199018. Drought: Prairie Provinces, 1992
11. Hailstorm: Calgary AB, Sept 7 1991
13. Flood: Assiniboine, Red and Winnipeg Rivers MB, May 1997
15. Tornado: Edmonton AB, Jul 31 1987
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depa
rture
s fro
m th
e 19
12-2
007
mea
nMean annual flow (m3/s) North Saskatchewan River at Edmonton, 1063-2006
Sauchyn et al. 2011
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Cycles in the tree rings
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El Niño remote impacts: Teleconnections
La Niña teleconnections have the opposite effect
Neelin, 2011. Climate Change and Climate Modeling, Cambridge UP
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Munich Reinsurance (2012) Severe weather in North America
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"Best Management Practices: For the Agricultural Climate of Tomorrow”
Vegreville, AB, March 26, 2009
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THANKS!
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