Climate Science in Support of Sustainable Agriculture

Selvaraju Ramasamy, René Gommes, Michele BernardiClimate, Energy and Tenure Division (NRC)

Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, Rome, Italy

Silent Hunger Crisis has reached a historic high

• Over 1.02 billion people in the World suffer from hunger today

• The number of chronically undernourished people in the world has risen from 842 million in the 1990s over one billion in 2009

• The vast majority of the world’s undernourished people live in developing countries

Source: FAO (2009)

% Population U ndernourished 02-04

0 - 1

1 - 3

3 - 5

5 - 10

10 - 15

15 - 20

20 - 25

25 - 50

50 - 75

The Changing Context: Climate Impacts

Biophysical drivers• Temperature• Extreme events• Rainfall patterns• Seasonal shifts• Sea level rise

Ecosystem Servicesand Environment

Sustainability(policies; community

participation;payments)

AgriculturalLivelihoods

(Migration, labour availability, food insecurity, conflicts, sale of

productive assets)

AgriculturalProductivity

(Food, cash crops, livestock, fishery

and forestryproducts)

AgriculturalInfrastructure(roads, storage,

processing,irrigation systems)

Demand for Food is Increasing: Expanding Agriculture...

• World population is projected to reach 9.1 billion people in 2050

• Diets are undergoing a revolution - hundreds of millions more people in many mid-level developing countries can now afford meat and dairy products.

• Livestock raised for meat consume large quantities of food – it takes eight kilos of grain to produce one kilo of beef.

• Raising overall food production by some 70% should be achieved up to 2050

• The combined effect of climate change, land degradation, crop losses, water scarcity and species infestations may cause projected yields to be 5 – 25% short of demand by 2050

• 185 million ha of rainfed – crop land (+19%) and 60 million ha of irrigated land (+30%) should be brought into production

THINKING OF FOOD, ENERGY AND CLIMATE AS ONE

Food, Energy and Climate. • For the first time in history, these

three are closely linked.• Without an understanding of this

new reality, we lack the basis for the most fundamental policy decisions

• Governments are supporting the production of biofuels from crops previously grown for food, fodder and shelter

Subsistence and Smallholder Agriculture

• About two-thirds of the 3 billion rural people in the World live off the income generated by farmers managing some 500 million small farms of less than 2 hectares each

• Agriculture constitutes the principle livelihood of 70% of the World’s poor, many of the world’s poor and hungry are smallholder farmers, herders, fisher folk, forest-dwellers and indigenous population

• The smallholder systems are “complex, diverse and risk prone” – risks are diverse

• Marginal location, small farm size, informal land tenure and low levels of technology compounds the risks associated with climate variability and change

• Efforts to boost agricultural production must focus largely on increasing smallholder productivity

• Climate services should target these vulnerable populations

Looking at Climate as a RESOURCE..

• Climate as a resource must be known, assessed in quantitative terms and properly managed by the farmers

• Smallholder farmers are already managing climate risks - planting different crop varieties, changing planting dates and adapting practices to shorter growing seasons; but are not sufficient

• Climate science supports systematic characterization of agriculture resources and develop climate responsive policies, programmes and practices

• Ecological implications of agriculture development require an improved understanding between the climate, biological and socio-economic components

Reactive alternatives are adhoc…Reactive alternatives are adhoc…Entry to build sustainable agricultureEntry to build sustainable agriculture

Climate Change brings changes in the Climate Change brings changes in the frequency, magnitude, and intensity of frequency, magnitude, and intensity of extreme climate eventsextreme climate events

So far measures to address the So far measures to address the consequences are ad hoc…consequences are ad hoc…

Efforts to shift from reactive emergency Efforts to shift from reactive emergency approach to pro-active risk reduction approach to pro-active risk reduction should start at different levelsshould start at different levels

Emergency programmes need to Emergency programmes need to integrate elements of risk reduction and integrate elements of risk reduction and promote sustainable agriculturepromote sustainable agriculture

Integrated community centred pro-poor Integrated community centred pro-poor approaches are needed; should include approaches are needed; should include localized early warning and response localized early warning and response systemssystems

Climate Change brings changes in the Climate Change brings changes in the frequency, magnitude, and intensity of frequency, magnitude, and intensity of extreme climate eventsextreme climate events

So far measures to address the So far measures to address the consequences are ad hoc…consequences are ad hoc…

Efforts to shift from reactive emergency Efforts to shift from reactive emergency approach to pro-active risk reduction approach to pro-active risk reduction should start at different levelsshould start at different levels

Emergency programmes need to Emergency programmes need to integrate elements of risk reduction and integrate elements of risk reduction and promote sustainable agriculturepromote sustainable agriculture

Integrated community centred pro-poor Integrated community centred pro-poor approaches are needed; should include approaches are needed; should include localized early warning and response localized early warning and response systemssystems

Water Management and Enhanced Water Productivity

• Agriculture accounts for 70% of all water use worldwide and up to 95% in many developing countries

• Over 277 million hectares are classified as irrigated land

• Projections suggest that, by 2025, over 3 billion people are likely to be experiencing water stress

• Enhance water productivity– Reducing uncertainty in water

availability

– Water harvesting and re-cycling

– Soil and water conservation

– Investment in irrigation

– Matching crops and varieties to rainy season potentials

– Optimal water allocation conditioned by climate information

Distribution, incidence and intensity of pests and diseases

• The movement of plant pests, animal diseases cross physical and political boundaries and threaten food security

• Temperature and precipitation are the key factors; alter species composition and interactions

• Outbreaks of animal and plant pests and disease have historically resulted in major food emergencies

• Investment in early control and detection system will be key to avoid the higher costs of eradication and management

• Monitoring pest and disease incidence and establishment of new thresholds should seek support of climate services

• Integrated Pest Management (IPM) approach can be further elaborated taking into consideration of emerging climate related risks

Fishery Dependent Communities are at risk...

• Fisheries employ more than 200 million people worldwide – 98 percent from developing countries

• Fish products provide more than 2.8 billion people with about 20 percent of their average per capita intake of animal protein

• Stability of supply are affected by changes in seasonality and increased variance of ecosystem productivity

• Fishery-dependent communities may also face increased vulnerability in terms of less stable livelihoods, decrease in availability of fish, and safety risks due to fishing in harsher weather conditions

• Losses caused by spoilage amount to about 10 to 12 million tonnes per year and an estimated 20 million tonnes of fish a year are discarded at sea

• Reducing post-harvest losses by creating better storage facilities suitable for climatic conditions offers opportunities

• Ecosystem approach for adaptation in fishery should consider early warning systems and protection of fishery infrastructure

Croplands in Biodiversity Hotspots

• Each hotspot has already lost at least 70% of its original natural vegetation

• Over 50% of the World’s plant species and 42% of all terrestrial vertebrate species are endemic to the 34 biodiversity hotspots

• Extension of croplands into biodiversity hotspots or croplands biodiversity hotspots with low agriculture suitability

• Define sustainable conservation practices:

Establishing farmland corridors that link uncultivated species, mimic natural habitats by integrating productive perennial plants, use of farming systems that reduce pollution, modify resource management practices to enhance habitate quality in and around farmlands

Sustainable Natural Resource Management

• Sustainable natural resource management is the entry point

– contributes to livelihood asset development, enhanced adaptive capacity and resilience

• The key issues need collaboration and partnership are:– Cropping patterns Vs changing rainfall patterns– Management of coastal salinity; loss of livelihoods– Protection of mangroves – mitigation and adaptation

synergies– Trans-boundary pest and disease– Management of pastoral systems and degraded

lands– Cross-boundary water resource management– Development of new crop types tolerant and

resistant to stresses– Rehabilitation of rangelands– Revised land use and land cover planning

Sustainable Natural Resource Management

• The specific action :– Localized adaptation measures– adjusting planting dates and crop types– Enterprise diversification– Increasing water productivity– improved fertiliser use– Grazing land management– Diversified livelihood systems – Weather based insurance– Integration of traditional farmer practices– Gender perspectives into sustainable NRM– Integrated watershed management– Forest fire monitoring and management

Agriculture plays an important role in CC Mitigation

• A notable source of the three major greenhouse gases: carbon dioxide, methane and nitrous oxide

• Forestry (including deforestation) accounted for 17.4% of total emissions in 2004, with emissions from intensive crop and livestock production contributing another 13.5%

• Agriculture has the technical potential to mitigate between 5.5 and 6.0 Gt of CO2 per year by 2030

• The actions that have large mitigation potential and high co-benefits are:

– increasing soil carbon sequestration through improved crop and grazing land management

– forestry and agro-forestry initiatives

– improving efficiency of nutrient management and restoration of organic soils and degraded lands.

• C sequestration efforts need careful planning based on variety of factors (includes temperature and soil moisture regimes)

Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and forest Degradation (REDD)

• The UN-REDD Programme, a collaborative partnership between FAO, UNDP and UNEP launched in September 2008

• Supports countries to develop capacity to Reduce Emissions from Deforestation and forest Degradation (REDD)

• FAO supports countries on technical issues related to forestry and the development of cost effective and credible Measurement, Reporting and Verification (MRV) processes for emission reductions.

Phase 1 - Pilot countries• Africa: DR Congo, Tanzania, Zambia• Asia & Pacific: Indonesia, PNG, Vietnam• LA & Caribbean: Bolivia, Panama, Paraguay

Partnership and collaboration on Data, Tools and Methods

Initiatives to promote information and mapping systems on food insecurity

and vulnerability

Information systems, data bases, hazard specific warning mechanisms, impact assessment tools

p

Information systems

FAOCLIM AGDAT

AgroMetShell

Focus on Areas of Concern (AoCs) and Critical Zones

• Climate risk and impact ‘hotspot’ (critical zones) and Adaptation Areas of Concern (AOC)

• Spatial and temporal vulnerabilities - vulnerability varies in the same location from time to time

• Strengthen climate and agriculture impact baseline data

Top-down multi-stakeholder processes

Bottom-up community based assessments

Legal andinstitutional;

Policy and planing;

Livelihood;

Integrated farmingsystem;

Agro-ecosytems.

Climate forecastsfor farm-level

decision-making

Impact assessments

based on climatechange scenarios

Institutional mechanisms for accessing climate services and up-scaling of adaptation measures

Cimate Knowledge and Community Based Climate Change Adaptation

Assessing current and future climate risks and

vulnerabilities

Indigenous and improved adaptation practices

monitoring and Evaluation;

Integration into policy

Implementing options,

demonstrations and replication

Adaptation Practices and Options

Adaptation Practices and Options

Planning for Adaptation

Planning for Adaptation

Vulnerability and RiskVulnerability and Risk

Policy support and up-scaling

Policy support and up-scaling

Implementing adaptation options

Implementing adaptation options

preparing localized impact

outlooksClimate Knowledge

Risk Typologies, Responses and Climate Services

High C B A A

Moderate C B B A

Low D C B B

Very Low D D C C

Minor Serious Extensive Catastrophe

Fre

quen

cy

Severity

Class A: High-Risk Class B: Moderate to High Risk

Class C: Moderate Risk Class D: Low Risk

Emergency Response

Risk InsuranceOver exploitation of natural resources

Social capital, community networks

High input agriculture; Low input use efficiency

Emergency support; transient livelihoods

Livelihood diversification

Respond to save

lives

Respond to save livelihoods

Localized Knowledge Sharing Mechanisms for Sustainable Agriculture

• Support of climate services– Farmer Field Schools– Farmer Participatory Climate

Workshops – Climate Information Centres– Village Knowledge Centres– Local Climate Forums– Field Demonstrations and

Field Days

Farm Adaptive Dynamic Optimization (FADO)

. FADO refers to a combination of methodology that helps to identify, analyze and prioritize the climate related vulnerabilities

and risks and optimize the adaptation practices to effectively respond to climate variability and change at local level

Weather and climate forecastsMarket price of cropsNear real time weather information

Historical climate dataHistorical climate impact data

analysis of climate related risks and vulnerabilities and adaptive options

Socio-economic dataresources and land uselocal coping strategieslocal rules of thumb

local context and community objectives and local perceptions

on the ground decision making with clients

information flow on weather and crop phenology/ crop stages

information flow on local situation and community perception on risks and vulnerabilities

communication of impact outlooks and management advisories

feedback from the clients

Weather and climate forecastsMarket price of cropsNear real time weather information

Historical climate dataHistorical climate impact data

analysis of climate related risks and vulnerabilities and adaptive options

Socio-economic dataresources and land uselocal coping strategieslocal rules of thumb

local context and community objectives and local perceptions

on the ground decision making with clients

information flow on weather and crop phenology/ crop stages

information flow on local situation and community perception on risks and vulnerabilities

communication of impact outlooks and management advisories

feedback from the clients

Weather and climate forecastsMarket price of cropsNear real time weather information

Historical climate dataHistorical climate impact data

analysis of climate related risks and vulnerabilities and adaptive options

Socio-economic dataresources and land uselocal coping strategieslocal rules of thumb

local context and community objectives and local perceptions

on the ground decision making with clients

information flow on weather and crop phenology/ crop stages

information flow on local situation and community perception on risks and vulnerabilities

communication of impact outlooks and management advisories

feedback from the clients

Support to Policy and Planning

Improved mechanisms for cross-sectoral coordination for Effective Climate and agriculture services

Integration of climate related concerns and opportunities into agriculture policies and development plans

Agricultural perspectives to the development of National Adaptation Programme of Action (NAPA)

Plan of Action (PoA) for the Sectoral Ministries (Eg. Agriculture, livestock, fishery)

Strengthen basic service systemsDecentralized risk reduction plansImproving climate information products for agricultureImproving data collection, monitoring and analysis capacitystrengthening proactive community based risk management

Institutional capacity building in agriculture sector

1. Understand the types of climate services available at the national level and its relevance for agriculture

2. should know how to interpret and prepare impact outlooks and management alternatives conditioned on weather and climate information

3. should incorporate climate knowledge in their services (eg. contingency planning, cropping programmes)

4. Current climate variability is the entry point to build the resilience - awareness raising at the community level remains key (community based organizations)

Conclusions• Climate is just one of the factors affecting food security• There is no simple solution to sustainably feeding 9 billion people• Support of climate service to sustainable agriculture should be

part of broader package of services to farmers• A broad range of options are available, but needs to be pursued in

the context of changing physical, biological and socio-economic scenarios

• As far as climate impacts are concerned, the time horizon counts; proposed actions should consider the farmers ability and resources

• Broader collaboration and partnerships are required at multiple levels ranging from monitoring, use of climate information to capacity building and institutional and policy development

• All these efforts present key challenges, but offers immense opportunities

THANK YOU