climate scenarios 2011 - 2040 - …intercooperation.org.pk/admin/uploads/publications/climate...are...

CLIMATE SCENARIOS 2011 - 2040District Chitral, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa - Pakistan

Intercooperation (IC) PakistanE-mail: [email protected] web: www.intercooperation.org.pk

CreditsAuthors:Dr. Muhammad Hanif, Pakistan Meteorology Department (PMD)Dr. Jawad Ali, Intercooperation (IC) Pakistan Dr. Arjumand Nizami, IC PakistanProfessor Dr. Mohammad Akmal, Climate Change Centre (CCC), the University of Agriculture Peshawar (UAP)

Editors:Syed Nadeem Bukhari, IC PakistanIrshad Ali, CCC, UAPMuhammad Abbas Qazi, CCC, UAP

Acknowledgment:This study has been supported by the Livelihoods Project Hindukush (LPH) implemented by Intercooperation Pakistan and financed by the Swiss Agency for Development and Cooperation (SDC). A number of faculty members of the University of Agriculture Peshawar (UAP), students of UAP from Chitral and officials of the Research and Extension department of the Government of KP contributed to elaborating implication of climate change on farming systems (last section). The authors are thankful to all the contributors and hope that this report will be a useful reference for mainstreaming climate change concerns in development planning in district Chitral.

Photo Credit: Muhammad Abbas Qazi, Muhammad Riaz, Zahid Rehman

Design: Salman Beenish

Printed by: PanGraphics (Pvt.) Ltd. Islamabad

Available from:Intercooperation Delegation Office, Islamabad – PakistanIntercooperation Liaison Office, Peshawar – PakistanClimate Change Centre (CCC), The University of Agriculture Peshawar – Pakistanwww.intercooperation.org.pk

Reproduction of this publication for commercial purposes is prohibited.Citation is encouraged: Use of this publication for educational or other non-commercial purposes is permissible provided the source is fully acknowledged.

CLIMATE SCENARIOS 2011 – 2040District Chitral, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa – Pakistan


2

CDPC Climate Data Processing Centre

CCC Climate Change Centre

CMIP5 Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project 5

IPCC Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change

KP Khyber Pakhtunkhwa

LPH Livelihoods Project Hindukush

RH Relative humidity

RCPs Representative Concentration Pathways

SDC Swiss Agency for Development and Cooperation

UAP University of Agriculture Peshawar

Acronyms


3

1. INTRODUCTION

1.1. The Study Areas

1.2. Methodology

2. NORTH CHITRAL

2.1. Rainfall Scenarios

2.2. Temperature Scenarios

3. SOUTH CHITRAL



4. IMPLICATIONS OF EMERGING CLIMATE SCENARIOS IN CHITRAL DISTRICT

4.1. Implications for water and soil resources

4.2. Implications for crops

4.3. Implications for fruit and vegetable

4.4. Implications for livestock and wildlife

4.5. General recommendations

List of Tables & Figures

Table 1: Rainfall scenarios of North Chitral

Table 2: Temperature scenarios of North Chitral

Table 3: Rainfall scenarios of South Chitral

Table 4: Temperature scenarios of South Chitral

Fig 1: Location map of District Chitral

Fig 2: Land cover map of District Chitral

Fig 3: Rainfall scenarios of North Chitral

Fig 4: Temperature (Maximum) scenarios of North Chitral

Fig 5: Temperature (Minimum) scenarios of North Chitral

Fig 6: Rainfall scenarios of South Chitral

Fig 7: Temperature (Maximum) scenarios of South Chitral

Fig 8: Temperature (Minimum) scenarios of South Chitral

Table of Contents


4

Climate change, though a global phenomenon, has its impacts both positive and negative at local level depending on the region. In South Asia, according to the 5th assessment reports of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC - 2014), average annual temperature could rise to a maximum in between 3.5 °C – 5.8 °C by the end of 21st century because the region falls in arid and semi-arid zone. COP21 reached a universal agreement to keep a global temperature rise this century well below 2 degree Celsius and to drive efforts to limit the temperature increase even further to 1.5 °C above pre-industrial levels. The 1.5 °C limit is a significantly safer defence line against the worst impacts of a changing climate. Whereas observed in earlier studies, in case of Pakistan and other neighbouring countries rise in temperature has already surpassed this limit. The resultant climate change effects will therefore be more pronounced in the South Asia region. The increase in temperature will be associated with changes in snowfall and rainfall patterns and will have both positive and negative impact on various socio-economic sectors e.g. water, agriculture, forestry, biodiversity and human health. The impacts of climate change on these sectors are already visible in Pakistan over the last two decades.

Pakistan’s climate has large spatial and temporal variations. The northern and western mountain ranges in the country add to the wide variation in the climate of places located in the same latitudinal belts. Most of the areas in Pakistan are very sensitive to the changes in terms of both temperature and precipitation. Some regions of the country with high altitudes are short of heat and therefore may benefit from rising temperatures due to climate change but these areas are also vulnerable to flash floods, whilst most of the southern regions are extremely vulnerable to droughts and heat stresses. In Pakistan, the frequency and intensity of climate related disasters have considerably increased during the last two decades which are already displacing people from their homes, destroying livelihoods and also causing unfortunate loss of lives among vulnerable populations. Monsoon is a major rainy season of Pakistan, which yields nearly 60% of the total rainfall during the season (Jun-Sep), and therefore stands critical for agriculture, industry, drinking water supply and human health. In the future, the pressures of an increasing population will bring additional stresses on the society and the environment, with serious implications for water resources, health and food security. The possibility that the precipitation

distribution, especially monsoon rainfall may become less stable (erratic but intensive1) as a result of climate change, has serious consequences for Pakistan in the form of flash and riverine flooding that have already increased in recent years.

The agriculture and water resources of Pakistan are highly vulnerable to climatic changes. In particular, as the prevailing temperatures are close to the tolerance limits for most crops, any further increase in temperature may have serious implications for agricultural production throughout arid and semi-arid areas in the country. An increasing temperature trend may alter bio-physical relationships by changing growing periods of the crops, altering scheduling of cropping seasons, increasing crop stresses (thermal and moisture stresses), changing irrigation water requirements, altering soil characteristics, and increasing risk of pests and diseases, thereby negatively affecting agricultural productivity.

In the dry western mountain areas, a further increase in temperatures may enhance the process of de-glaciations thereby affecting our water reserves upon which the country has long term dependency for agriculture and energy production. At the same time however, increased temperature in the high mountain regions of Pakistan such as Chitral district is expected to have positive impacts on crop yields as discussed in several reports. Double cropping system utilizing both winter and summer seasons may also be possible in the high mountain areas.

The purpose of this study is to understand such trends based on past and future rainfall and temperature patterns, and impacts of these patterns on various components of the farming sector. This understanding is essential for appropriate adaptation strategies to adjust to the adverse and/or positive impacts of climate change. The information would also be useful in various applications especially in climate/weather forecasting for the benefit of communities in the area, and by agricultural scientists for conducting research to evolve appropriate varieties, technologies and practices for timely adaptation to climate change.

The study covered two regions of district Chitral – North and South

1. Introduction

1.1. The Study Areas

1Erratic refers to inconsistency of rainfall trend; it is more unpredictable, uncertain and comes at unexpected times with long intermittent gaps. By intensive we refer to the phenomenon of too much rain at a very short span of time and therefore it is hard for the system to absorb suddenly high quantity of water, resulting in surface run off and soil erosion.


5

that are part of the Hindukush mountain ranges in the northern part of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province (KP). Chitral is a close valley at an average altitude of 1500 meters above sea level (in the valley

bottom) with a latitude and longitude of approximately 35.51°N and 71.50°E, respectively.

Fig 1: Location map of District Chitral

Fig 2: Land cover map of District Chitral(Source: Billion Trees Tsunami Afforestation Project, Govt. of KP)


6

The weather system in Chitral is temperate and dominated by a winter weather pattern with rains caused by western disturbances that occur during the period of December–March. The mean annual temperatures of North and South Chitral are 16 °C and 15 °C respectively. Temperatures of both regions in the winter season drop to freezing levels. The South Chitral receives an annual total rainfall of 457.5 mm and North Chitral 325.2 mm, with heavy snow fall over the mountains during winters. The study areas are located at the altitudes of 2050 meters and 1500 meters above sea level (in the valleys bottom near population). The main source of livelihood is subsistence agriculture and natural resources. Land holdings are small. Main crops include Wheat, Maize, Pulses, Potato and fodder. In addition, high value fruits such as Apple, Cherry, Apricot, Pomegranate, Walnut, Grapes and Pear are also grown. About 60% of the area is mono-cropped (wheat or maize) as the prevailing low temperatures during the crop growing season do not allow two crops to mature in time. The remaining 40% of the area lies in the valley dependent upon irrigations from springs and is usually double cropped. The region is also rich in natural resources, including forests, wildlife and minerals. The area has high potential for tourism that can enhance livelihoods of the local people. The district is prone to frequent natural hazards such as flash floods, soil erosion, avalanches, landslides, drought and other climatic extremes. The frequency of such events has notably increased over the past two decades. Land cover map of Chitral is given in Fig 2.

Climate projections for the two regions of district Chitral of KP (Pakistan) are made using the newly developed Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) under the Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project 5 (CMIP5) and appropriate statistical downscaling. The CMIP5 ensemble mean climate is closer to observed climate and therefore current work is based on CMIP5 model output. In CMIP5, four RCP scenarios namely RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP6.0 and RCP8.5, which represent pathways of radioactive forcing, have been used. For computation of rainfall and temperature scenarios for the next three decades, RCP2.6 pathway has been used. Under RCP2.6 scenario greenhouse gas emissions and emissions of air pollutants are reduced substantially over time by 2100.

CMIP5 models are generally of higher resolution and are available at common spatial scale of 0.5 × 0.5 degree resolution. The CMIP5 model data is freely available for research purpose to scientific community. The CMIP5 model data is available for different forcing factors. Only CO2 emission data based on RCP2.6 has been used in the present work to develop the climate scenarios. For this study, only two variables, rainfall and temperatures, were used. The required data were extracted from climate explorer (http://climexp.knmi.nl) and were simulated on decadal basis. The results were bias corrected with the actual climate of the region. Statistical downscaling was used to run the precipitation and

temperature scenarios for the study areas. Finally, the projected decadal scenarios have been compared with the baseline period and with the previous decade to understand the rate of change of climate variables. The decadal CMIP5 scenario run for both study areas have been shown separately in tabular and graphical forms. The observational rainfall and temperature data of 1981-2010 have been used as a baseline collected from Climate Data Processing Centre (CDPC) of Pakistan Meteorological Department (PMD).

In the present study, based on CMIP5 using the RCP2.6 scenarios, the projections for the two main variables, surface temperature and precipitation, have been developed using only one ensemble mean of CMIP5 models. This report provides temperature and precipitation projections based on multi-model ensemble mean for Pakistan for the period 2011-2040 using the baseline data of 1981-2010.

The seasonality in this study has been determined by months for convenience and based on average temperatures: 1. Winter: December, January, February 2. Spring: March, April, May3. Summer: June, July, August, September4. Fall: October, November

The results of temperature and rainfall were then presented to a group of experts at the University of Agriculture Peshawar (UAP) and senior staff at Agriculture Research and Extension departments of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KP) for analyzing possible implications of the changing climate for farming sector. The experts deliberated on this subject during a day-long workshop held at the Climate Change Centre (CCC) UAP. Findings of the workshop are summarized in the last section of this study.

1.2. Methodology


7

2. North ChitralThe computed rainfall scenarios using the baseline data of 1981-2010, for each season, departures from the baseline period and the

preceding decades are shown in Table 1. The projected scenarios for each season are also displayed in Figure 3 for visual examination.

Highlights

• AnnualRain:Increasingtrendupto2030,thenindicatingadecreasingtrend.• WinterRain:Gradualincreaseincomingdecades.• SpringRain:Smallincreasetill2020,thengraduallydecreasing.• SummerRain:Minorincreaseinnext5years,thencontinuesfall.

• FallRain:Minorgradualincrease

Table 1: Rainfall scenarios of North Chitral

Chitral (N) Rain (mm)

Base 1981-2010

Projected 2011-2020

% change from Base

Projected 2021-2030

% change from Base

Projected 2031-2040

% change from Base

Annual 325.2 345.5 6.24 360.7 10.92 355.8 9.41

Winter 97.5 107.6 10.36 126.5 29.74 140.30 43.90

Spring 162.5 167.7 3.20 163.4 0.55 155.20 -4.49

Summer 39 42.5 8.97 40.2 3.08 30.10 -22.82

Fall 26 27.7 6.54 30.6 17.69 30.40 16.92



Chitral North: Rainfall Scenarios

Base 2011-2020 2021-2030 2031-2040

Annual Winter Spring Summer Fall

400

250

300

350

200

150

100

50

0

Rai

n (m

m)



8

Highlights

Highlights

• AnnualmeantemperatureofNorthChitralhasgradualincreasingtrend.• Therateofminimumtemperatureincreaseisgreaterthanmaximumtemperature.• Theincreasingtrendsduringwintersandspringsarehigherthaninsummerandfallseasons.

The results, as shown in Table 2, Figures 4 & 5, reveal that the annual maximum and minimum temperatures are increasing – maximum with higher rate and minimum with slower rate when compared to the base period of 1981-2010. On an average the increase in annual mean temperatures is about 0.6 °C per decade. This pattern of increasing trend for maximum and minimum temperatures has also been observed

for all the seasons in North Chitral.

Table 2: Temperature scenarios of North Chitral

Chitral (N) Temp °C

Base1981-2010

Projected2011-2020

% changeFrom Base

Projected2021-2030

% changeFrom Base

Projected2031-2040

% changeFrom Base

Annual

Average 15.1 15.9 5.3 16.4 8.6 16.8 11.3

Minimum 7.9 8.6 8.9 9.0 13.9 9.4 19.0

Maximum 22.2 23.2 4.5 23.8 7.2 24.2 9.0

Winter

Average 6.6 7.0 6.1 7.8 18.2 8.8 33.3

Minimum 0.4 0.5 25.0 0.7 75.0 1.0 150.0

Maximum 12.7 14.0 10.2 14.8 16.5 16.6 30.7

Spring

Average 9.8 10.5 7.1 11.1 13.3 11.4 16.3

Minimum 3.5 4.0 14.3 4.3 0.7 4.5 28.6

Maximum 16.0 17.0 6.3 17.8 11.3 18.2 13.8

Summer

Average 23.2 24.0 3.4 24.5 5.6 25.0 7.8

Minimum 14.3 15.0 4.9 15.5 8.4 16.0 11.9

Maximum 32.0 32.9 2.8 33.5 4.7 34.0 6.3

Fall

Average 20.7 21.6 4.3 22.1 6.8 22.4 8.2

Minimum 11.8 12.4 5.1 12.8 8.5 13.1 11.0

Maximum 29.5 30.7 4.1 31.3 6.1 31.6 7.1



9

Fig 4: Temperature (Maximum) scenarios of North Chitral Fig 5: Temperature (Minimum) scenarios of North Chitral

Chitral North: Mean Maximum Temp

Base 2011-2020 2021-2030 2031-2040


40.0

25.0

30.0

35.0

20.0

15.0

10.0

5.0

0

Tem

p C

Chitral North: Mean Minimum Temp

Base 2011-2020 2021-2030 2031-2040


14.0

16.0

18.0

20.0

12.0

8.0

10.0

6.0

2.0

4.0

0

Tem

p C


10

3. South Chitral

The computed rainfall scenarios for South Chitral using the baseline data of 1981-2010, for each season departures from baseline period and the preceding decades are shown in Table 3 below. The projected scenarios for each season are also displayed in Figure 6 below for

visual examination.

Highlights

• AnnualRain:Increasingtrendupto2030,thenindicatingadecreasingtrend.• WinterRain:Decreasingtill2020,thenslightlyupto2020andasharpincrease.• SpringRain:Increasetill2020,stableduringnextdecadethenasharpfall.• SummerRain:Increasinginnext5years,andthengraduallyfallingafter2020.

• FallRain:Minordecreaseinnext5years,thenagradualincrease

Table 3: Rainfall scenarios of South Chitral

Chitral (S) Rain (mm)

Base 1981-2010

Projected 2011-2020

% change from Base

Projected 2021-2030

% change from Base

Projected 2031-2040

% change from Base

Annual 457.5 490.3 7.17 504.5 10.27 471.5 3.06

Winter 110.2 102.3 -7.17 112.5 2.09 140.50 27.50

Spring 251.3 285.2 13.49 285.8 13.73 235.70 -6.21

Summer 57.5 68.5 19.13 65.7 14.26 50.70 -11.83

Fall 38.5 34.2 -11.17 40.4 4.94 44.20 14.81

3.1 Rainfall Scenarios

Fig 6: Rainfall scenarios of South Chitral

Chitral South: Rainfall Scenarios

Base 2011-2020 2021-2030 2031-2040

Rai

n (m

m)


600

500

400

300

200

100

0


11

Highlights

• LikeNorthChitral,theannualmeantemperatureinSouthChitralisalsoincreasinggradually.• MinimumtemperatureisincreasingrapidlyascomparedtomaximumtemperaturesinSouthChitral.• Meantemperatureofwinterseasonisalsoincreasingbuttheminimumtemperaturehasdecreasingtrendduringnexttwode- cades, indicating cooler nights and then has an increasing trend during last decade.• Otherseasonalmeantemperatures(spring,summer&fall)arealsoindicatinganincreasingtrend.

The results, as shown in Table 4, graphs 7 & 8, reveal that like in case of North Chitral, the annual maximum and minimum temperatures are increasing; maximum with higher rate and minimum with slower rate when compared to the base period of 1981-2010. On an average the increase in annual mean temperatures is about 0.6 °C per decade. This pattern of increasing trend for maximum and minimum temperatures has also been observed for all the seasons in South Chitral except winter season, where the minimum temperatures are decreasing during first decade then increasing gradually.

Table 4: Temperature scenarios of Upper Dir

3.2 Temperature Scenarios

Chitral (S) Temp °C

Base1981-2010

Projected2011-2020

% changeFrom Base

Projected2021-2030

% changeFrom Base

Projected2031-2040

% changeFrom Base

Annual

Average 16.1 16.9 5.0 17.5 8.7 18.2 13.0

Minimum 8.5 9.0 6.5 9.6 13.6 10.2 20.7

Maximum 23.8 24.8 4.4 25.3 6.5 26.2 10.3

Winter

Average 7.3 7.6 4.1 8.3 13.7 9.4 28.8

Minimum 0.7 0.4 -42.9 0.6 -14.3 1.2 71.4

Maximum 13.9 14.8 6.9 16.0 15.5 17.5 26.4

Spring

Average 10.8 11.9 10.7 12.7 18.1 13.0 20.9

Minimum 4.5 5.2 16.9 5.9 0.7 6.1 37.1

Maximum 17.2 18.6 8.1 19.4 12.8 19.8 15.1

Summer

Average 24.7 25.6 3.9 26.3 6.7 26.8 8.7

Minimum 16.1 16.6 3.1 17.0 5.6 17.4 8.1

Maximum 33.3 34.5 3.6 35.5 6.6 36.2 8.7

Fall

Average 21.6 22.5 4.2 23.1 6.9 23.6 9.3

Minimum 12.6 13.2 4.8 13.6 7.9 14.0 11.1

Maximum 30.7 31.7 3.4 32.5 6.0 33.1 8.0


12

Fig 7: Temperature (Maximum) scenarios of South Chitral Fig 8: Temperature (Minimum) scenarios of South Chitral

Chitral South: Mean Maximum Temp

Base 2011-2020 2021-2030 2031-2040


40.0

25.0

30.0

35.0

20.0

15.0

10.0

5.0

0

Tem

p C

Chitral South: Mean Minimum Temp

Base 2011-2020 2021-2030 2031-2040


14.0

16.0

18.0

20.0

12.0

8.0

10.0

6.0

2.0

4.0

0

Tem

p C


13

4. Implications of emerging climate scenarios in Chitral district

• Rise in the temperatures (bothminimumandmaximum) incombinationwithexpected increases in themonsoon rainswill furtherexpedite glacial melting and risk of Glacial Lake Outburst Floods (GLOF) in Chiral.

• Itisexpectedthattherewillbemorewaterflowinsummerthatwouldoverflowthewaterdistributionsystembyerodingsoilsandstructures. However, in autumn and winter due to decrease in rainfall, the water bypasses will remain lower than water channels which will impede smooth water flows from source (streams) to sink (fields).

• Increasedriskofflashfloodsinsummerduetoincreasedmonsoonrainsprevail.

• Flashfloodswillalsodamagecropsandirrigationchannelsandwilldisturbsmoothflowsofirrigationwatertothecrops.

Suggested adaptation measures• InnovationandDRRmeasureshouldbeensuredindesignofchannelsespeciallychannels’headssothatthechannelsaresuitedfor

the fluctuation in water flows at the sources (streams). • Thereisaneedtoraiseawarenessamongcommunitiesforensuringcropsirrigationonlyasperrequirementsandwaterdemandto

prevent unnecessary nutrients flow from the fields due to over irrigation.• Checkdamsshouldbeconstructedandreinforcedwithplantationstoavoiddamagesfromfloods.Takingbenefitofthebilliontrees

programme of the KP Government may help much needed soil and water conservation in the area.

• Riseintemperaturemaycreateopportunitiesfordoublecroppinginareaswithsinglecropsi.e.wheatmaybefollowedbymaizeandrice in upper Chitral.

• Risingtemperatureandincreasinghumiditymaycauseariskofinsectsanddiseasesspreadinallkindsofcrops,fruitandvegetable.• YellowRustisaveryfataldiseaseandisexpectedtoincreaseintheareawithchangingclimate.Thisdiseaseisexpectedtoincrease

with increased humidity in spring and summer. • ExpectedrainsinspringandearlysummermayincreasechancesofMildewandFusariumheadblightwhichcouldbeathreattofood

security.• DelayedsowingduetolessrainfallcausesdelayedharvestingofthewintercropsinlowerChitralwhichmaydisturbcroppingpattern

with limited days for the growth of maize crop in the double cropping zones.

A. Maize• AnincreaseinpopulationofAphidsisreportedandisexpectedtoincreasewithincreasingminimumtemperatureintheareawhere

wheat is grown as a major crop. • Chancesofshootborerattackareexpectedtoincreasewithhighertemperatureatearlystageofthecropdevelopment.• Yieldisexpectedtoincreaseduetoriseintemperaturewithmaximumdaystocompletethecroplifecycle,whereasthereisapotential

for growing high yielding varieties. Contrary to this however, delay in wheat harvest may increase chances of late sowing maize crops

resulting in incomplete maturity and/or lower productivity. The cropping system therefore needs to be managed carefully.• Maizesownlatei.e.inJulyisonlytobeusedforfodderpurposes.

4.1 Implications for water and soil resources

4.2 Implications for crops


14

• Chancesofmoreweedinfestationarealsoexpectedinthefuture.

B. Rice• Increaseinrelativehumidity(RH)maycausesfastspreadoffungaldiseases• Scarcityofwaterinthelongrunmayadverselyaffectriceproduction,grainqualityandperhapseliminatethecrop.

C. Potato• Potatoisthemaincropplantedatanaltitudeabove2000metersintheupperChitral.ItissowninMayandharvestedinSeptember.

The changing climate may adversely affect its quality. Crop grown above 2100 meters is assumed free of any kind of pathogenic attack and is used as seed potato and fetches higher return. Rise in temperature may result in more chances of pathogenic attack on the crop.

• Currentlyblightsandpestattacksarelowduetomildtemperatureintheregionbutduetoincreaseintemperatureasexpectedinthefuture may increase diseases i.e. blights and black leg.

D. Alfalfa• Moreharvestsofalfalfaareexpectedwithincreasedtemperature.• WeedsandinsectsattackisexpectedtoincreasesduetochangingclimatebothinlowerandupperChitral.However,cropofthe

lower Chitral will produce more biomass and maximum number of cuts per season.

Suggested adaptation measures• Diseaseandpestresistantvarietiesofcropsshouldbeintroducedinthearea.• Shortduration varietiesofmaize like “UltraEarly”, “Pahari& Iqbal” and “Shaheen” are recommendedwhichhaveShortGrowing

Degree Days. Nonetheless, Azam cultivation will ensure higher net return for fodder production. • Improvedagriculturepracticesshouldbeadopted toenhancecrops’ yieldand reduced losses inproductionbyadoptingproper

conservation strategies.• Awarenessaboutdiseasesandtheirspreadintheareawithcontrolmeasuresneedstoberaisedamongthefarmingcommunities.• Integratedpestmanagementshouldbepromotedfortheminimumuseofpesticidesandchemicalstoconserveecology.• Potatoshallbeproducedforseedratherthantablepotatoduetoitshighqualitytoensurehighernetreturntothegrowers.• Potatoisanexhaustivecropforsoil.Analternatecroppingwithlegumes(suchaspeas)isrecommendedtoensureacontinuousand

long term benefit to the potato farmers.• Withanincreasedriskofflashfloodsandwateroverflows/erosion,potatomayalsobeatahighriskandthereforeprecautionary

measures need to be taken to protect crops from such losses.• RicecultivationwiththegivenwaterregimeinChitralwithchangingclimateisnotsuitableathighaltitudeduetotheriskofslidingand

landslips.

• ChangingclimatehasimplicationsespeciallyforfruitswhichareveryimportantforthelivelihoodsofthepopulationinChitral.Increasedrains in the flowering season will drastically reduce yield of fruits.

• Fluctuationintemperature,e.g.temperatureduringthemonthofFebruary,MarchandApril(increaseinoneweekanddecreaseinanother) will disturb chilling period and affect plant to flower thereby decreasing fruit set.

• Duetoincreasedincidentsofdiseasesandinsectse.g.fruitfly,aphidsattacketc.,thefarmermayfeelobligatedtousepesticidesonfruits decreasing quality of fruits instead of producing nearly organic fruits.

• Risingtemperaturesandincreasinghumiditywillcreatefavorableenvironmentformushroomcultivation.• UntimelyrainsinAprilwilladverselyaffectfruitfloweringand/orpollination.

A. Apple• BothChitralandDroshtownareasarepresentlytoohotinsummerandnotsuitableforqualityfruitproduction.Goodqualityappleis

grown in the higher altitude areas. The change in climate will impact apple production negatively in these areas.• Codlingmothattack,scalesandpowderymildewdiseasesaretheemergingissuesofappleinChitralandareexpectedtoincrease

with rise in temperature. Other diseases like scab, fruit rot and root rot are likely to increase.

4.3 Implications for fruit and vegetable


15

B. Pomegranate• Currentlypomegranateispurelyorganicfruitoftheareaduetodrynatureoftheenvironment.Theincreasingmoisturemayenhance

chances of insect attack on the plants.• PomegranatesgrowninSwatarealreadyattackedbyAnarbutterflyandfruitrotduringmonsoonseason.Asmonsoonisshiftingto

the west, these issues may also be expected to extend to Chitral.

C. Apricot• At themoment,apricot inChitral ispurelyorganicasnochemical issprayedon thecrop.Theplantsare raisedalsowithoutany

chemical fertilizer application. Chitral is blessed with opportunity to grow apricot with white skin, soft texture and sweeter in nature than any other variety grown in the country.

• Apricotcannotwithstandheavyrainsatfloweringstage.Springrainsmaycauseseriousproblems,e.g.poorpollination,chancesofshot hole disease and blossom blight which severely upset the fruit quality as well as quantity.

D. Grapes• PocketsinChitralnamedasKuju,Booni,Bamborait,RamboorandBirrirarethemaingrapeproducingareas.Grapesproductionall

over the world is a very tiresome job due to downy mildew problem. It is likely that this disease may spread with changing climate in Chitral. The disease is mainly controlled with sulfur spray. If so, this will result in decreased quality of this nearly organic product.

• Chitralgrapesarealmostorganicduetoanextremedryclimateandlocallyadaptedgermplasm.Warmingofenvironmentinfuturemay eliminate indigenous species.

E. Walnut• Walnut is oneof themajor livelihoodsourcesofChitral. It is grownwell all overChitral due to its climate and soil; however, its

commercial production is possible in the Kalash valleys, Sonoghar, Tirich, Booni and Mastooj.• CurrentlywalnutproductioninChitralis100%organicduetodrytemperateclimateofthearea.Withincreaseintemperaturesand

moisture, diseases may spread resulting in use of chemicals for diseases control, thereby affecting fruit quality and productivity.• WalnutscabandZeuzeraspecies(Shootborer)areexpectedtoincreasewithclimatechange.

F. Pear• IndistrictChitralpearisanotherorganicfruit.OneofthemostimportantlocalspeciesnamedShoghoriisveryfamousforitstasteand

fruit quality and is opted for its longer shelf life.• Duetoanincreaseintemperature,scabdiseaseattackonpearsisexpectedtoincrease.• Hightemperatureleadstohighwindvelocitywhichultimatelyresultsbothinfallofflowersandprematurefruitthatwouldadversely

affect the production.

G. Mulberry• Anumberofindigenousspeciesareveryfamousandaregrowninthevalley.Forexample,Lakashar,BedanaandShiakiarepreferred

and liked for table use in Chitral. The varieties have good stay time on plants and hence used mostly for drying purpose also in open sunny conditions. In case of heavy rainfall in spring and summer season, chances of flower and fruit fall increases. Increased summer rains will also reduce opportunities for open air drying of fruit.

H. Vegetable• AnincreaseindiseasesandpestsincidentonseasonalvegetableispredictedforexpectedwarmerandrelativelymoistChitralinthe

near future. This would have an effect on disease spread and insect attack. • Recently,onioncropisinfectedwithdiseaseswhichweremostlynegligibleinthedistrict.Withexpectedclimatechange,thrips,purple

blotch and mildew attack on onion are expected to become serious issues in the future.

Suggested adaptation measures• Fruitspeciesresistanttodroughtandrelativelyhotclimateshouldbeselectedforplantingneworchards.• Diseaseandpestresistantvarieties,preferablyfromlocalgermplasm,forfruitandvegetablesandcropsshouldbemultipliedand

replicated to avoid excessive use of pesticides and insecticides in the ecology of Chitral. • Lowchillrequiredvarietiesofapple,pear,apricotandpeachneedstobeplantedinareaswherethespringisbecominghotanddry.• ScabisanewexpandingdiseaseinChitral.Diseaseresistantvarietiesofappleareavailableandmaybereplicatedforfuturebenefit.


16

• Prunuspersica(peach)isanadaptedlocallandraceofChitralwhichhasaveryhardrootstock.Itisalsohighlyrepellenttoaphids.Thevariety has good compatibility with peach, plum and almond and can be used as root stock for new varieties development in Chitral. Prunus amygdalus (almond) is another local land race of Chitral. It is also drought resistant. Both the species can be used as rootstock for peach and almond. The same species as rootstocks can be promoted to develop drought tolerant varieties for other areas.

• Measuresareneededforrehabilitationofwalnutsdamagedbystemborer/shootborerwhiletheseareoneofthepreciousstockalready established in the area.

• Surveyisneededtoexplorethestatusofdiseasesonmulberryplantstopreservecleanstocksforfurthermultiplicationinthearea.• Possiblegeneticmodificationneedstobetriedforspeciese.g.Shoghori(pear)tomakeitmorewindandheatresistantwhileretaining

fruit characteristics (taste and shelf quality). • Tomato isgrown for homeconsumption inChitral. Local varieties are resistant todiseases. It ismost juicy and tasty. Their local

germplasm need to be preserved and planted from lower to upper Chitral in the changing climate. • Inonion,ascomparedtoSwat1,Tirchmirvariety’sperformancewasobservedbetterathigheraltitudes.Tirchmirisrecommendedfor

North Chitral, whereas Swat 1 is suggested for South Chitral.• Trainingforagriculturestaffandfarmersinimprovedagriculturepracticesunderchangingclimateintheareawillenablethefarmers

to adjust their farming system in future climatic context.

• Due to dry temperate climate, Chitral is considered an area with minimum pathogen. However, with increasing temperature andhumidity different types of pathogen are expected to spread in the area, which may cause various viral, bacterial and fungal diseases in livestock.

• InlowerChitral,comparativelymorediseaseincidentsarereportedandtheirinfestationmayspreadfasterinthecomingdecades.• WheatstrawisveryimportantforanimalfeedinChitral.Thegoodnewsisthattheareas,especiallyupperChitral,willbemorefeasible

for cultivation of wheat and yield may increase with increasing temperature contributing to increased fodder availability. Likewise, more alfalfa production is also expected with rise in temperature.

• DistrictChitralisfamousforproductionofhoneyfromRussianolive.Thishoneyhasahighmarketvalueanddemand.Russianolivebear flowers early in the season. Increase in temperature may favor bee keeping, while establishing olive block plantation will further

favor bee keeping for enhanced production of high value honey.

Suggested adaptation measures• ThereisaneedtoestablishanimalhealthfacilitiesatTehsilandUClevel.• Vaccinationandde-wormingareneededthroughpermanentsetupsandspecialcampaigns.• Thereisahighpotentialincommercializinglocalproductsforenhancedresiliencethroughincreasedincomeofthefarmingcommunities.• Geneticimprovementoflocalcattlebreedsisrecommendedthroughcrossbreeding(e.g.Jersey)forbetterproductionandadaptation.• Climateissuitedforgrowingimprovedandnewvarietiesoffodder(e.g.sardi7ofalfalfaandperennialsummerlegumes).• Capacitybuildingoffarmersonfodderconservation/preservationisneededsincefodderisoftenshortinChitral.

• Deforestation,unfortunatelycurrentlyahigh trend, inChitralneeds tobecontrolledanddiscouraged throughpolicymeasures toensure conservation of natural resources for livelihoods of the local population.

• Promotionofeco-tourismwillenhancevalueofnaturalresourcese.g.glaciers,freshwater,forestsandnon-timberforestproduces.Local communities need to be trained in wise utilization of these resources.

• TheresearchinstitutionsanduniversitiesinChitralneedtobestrengthenedtoconductresearchonmountainspecificfarmingsystems.• Othervariablesi.e.humidity,sunshineetc.mayalsobeadded(inadditiontorainfallandtemperature)fordevelopingclimatescenarios.

This will facilitate a comprehensive analysis of possible impacts of changing climate on the farming sector and to promote Chitral specific appropriate adaptation measures.

• Alltypesofendeavorsforadaptationtoclimatechangeshouldbedesignedandimplementedinconsultation/collaborationwithlinedepartments that government support could be secured and initiatives could be made sustainable.

• AreaspecificweatherforecastsystemforupperandlowerChitralshouldbedevelopedtoprovideadvisoryservicesregardingweatherconditions and implications for farming system.

4.4 Implications for livestock and fauna

4.5 General recommendations


17

• Redefining/downscalingofagro-ecologicalzonestopromoteareaspecificresearchinlinewithexpectedclimatechangeforproperadaptation measures.

• Capacitiesofallrelevantstakeholdersneedtobebuilttomainstreamclimatechangeconsiderationintheirjob.Theseincludedistrictplanners, agriculture research, extension, water related departments namely on farm water management and irrigation, seed companies, farm service centers and farmers.


18

CLIMATE SCENARIOS 2011 - 2040District Chitral, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa - Pakistan

Intercooperation (IC) PakistanE-mail: [email protected] web: www.intercooperation.org.pk

climate scenarios 2011 - 2040 - …intercooperation.org.pk/admin/uploads/publications/climate...are...

Documents