SUPPLEMENTARY APPENDIX 15

Climate Resilience Outputs and PPCR Funded Activities

August 2015

CAM: Rural Roads Improvement Project II – Additional Cofinancing from Pilot Program for Climate Resilience (PPCR)

ADB RRP 42334-014 CAM: Rural Roads Improvement Project II—Pilot Program for Climate Resilience Component— Cambodia

ABBREVIATIONS

ADB Asian Development Bank CIF Climate Investment Funds GMS Greater Mekong Subregion LMB Lower Mekong Basin MOE Ministry of Environment MRC Mekong River Commission MRD Ministry of Rural Development MAFF Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries M&E Monitoring and Evaluation MPWT Ministry of Public Works and Transport NGO Non-government organization NSDP National Strategic Development Plan PPCR Pilot Program for Climate Resilience RRIP Rural Roads Improvement Project SPCR Strategic Program for Climate Resilience TA Technical assistance

Table of Contents

I. OVERVIEW ........................................................................................................... 1

II. THE CLIMATE CHANGE SCENARIO ................................................................... 1

A. Climate Change Impact and Vulnerability in Cambodia ...................................... 1

B. Climate Change Impacts and Vulnerability in Kampong Cham Province ............ 5

III. THE ONGOING PROJECT ................................................................................. 22

A. Overview ........................................................................................................... 22

B. The Additional Financing .................................................................................. 25

C. Other Information .............................................................................................. 26

IV. ADDITIONALITY OF INTERVENTIONS FOR PPCR FINANCING ..................... 29

A. PPCR Activities ................................................................................................. 29

B. Economic Analysis ............................................................................................ 34

C. Budget .............................................................................................................. 40

V. MONITORING AND EVALUATION ..................................................................... 41

1

SPCR COMPONENT III: CLIMATE RESILIENT INFRASTRUCTURE Project 4 – Climate resilience rural infrastructure in Kampong Cham province

(as part of the Rural Road Improvement Project (RRIP – II))

I. OVERVIEW 1. Cambodia is the only country in Southeast Asia implementing the Pilot Program for Climate Resilience (PPCR), a sub-program of the Strategic Climate Fund (SCF) within the framework of the Climate Investment Funds (CIF). The PPCR provides incentives for scaled-up action and transformational change in integrating climate risks and resilience in national development planning, consistent with poverty reduction and sustainable development goals. The Cambodia Strategic Program for Climate Resilience (SPCR) was endorsed by the PPCR Sub- Committee on 29 June 2011 in its original version, and on 11 February 2014 in its updated version. The revised SPCR comprised seven investment projects—one water resource project, two agriculture and food security projects, two transport projects, and two urban development projects—and a capacity building technical assistance project aimed at integrating climate resilience into development planning. Original financing envelope for SPCR amounted to $86 million. In the updated SPCR, an additional allocation of $5 million in grant was endorsed, with SPCR financing totaling to $91 million. Of this, $9 million in grant financing and $7 million in credit was endorsed for “Climate resilience of rural infrastructure in Kampong Cham Province” as additional financing under PPCR for the Asian Development Bank (ADB) to be channeled through the Rural Roads Improvement Project (RRIP) II1. The initiatives proposed for PPCR funding, and the main results and indicators for success (consistent with PPCR results framework) are presented in this document and in Supplementary Appendix A: PPCR Summary Project Approval Request. This document describes the impact of climate change in Kampong Cham province and in the Mekong River island cluster2 (part of mainland Kampong Cham province), and how the activities proposed for PPCR funding are complementary to RRIP II by enhancing resilience of RRIP II’s interventions.

II. THE CLIMATE CHANGE SCENARIO

A. Climate Change Impact and Vulnerability in Cambodia

2. Temperature. Mean annual temperature in Cambodia has increased by 0.8˚C since 1960, a rate of around 0.18˚C per decade from 1960 to 2006. Mean annual temperature is projected to increase by 0.4˚C to 1.3˚C by the 2030s, 0.7˚C to 2.7˚C by the 2060s, and 1.4˚C to 4.3˚C by the 2090s.3 Frequency of “hot days” is annually

1 ADB. 2014. Report and Recommendation to the President to the Board of Directors: Proposed Loan to the Kingdom

of Cambodia for Rural Roads Improvement Project II. Manila (Loan 3151-CAM). 2 The island cluster in the Mekong River consists of five remote islands which are highly vulnerable to flooding; the

islands lack year round access to the mainland or among the islands. The lack of access to emergency facilities has resulted in fatalities of island residents every year. Improving access and connectivity will increase the climate resilience of the 5-island cluster. 3 McSweeney, C., New, M. & Lizcano, G. 2010. UNDP Climate Change Country Profiles: Cambodia. Available:

http://country-profiles.geog.ox.ac.uk/ [Accessed 10 May 2013].

2

projected to occur on 14-49% of days by the 2060s, and 20-68% of days by the 2090s, marking a substantial increase in the frequency of hot days from the baseline of 12.2% of days in 1970-1999. 3. Precipitation. Mean rainfall did not show any consistent increase or decrease since 1960. Rainfall projections from different models have been consistent in showing increases in rainfall, particularly increases in wet season rainfall from June to August (-11 to 31% by 2090) and September to November (-8 to +42% by 2090), but will be

partially offset by projected decreases in December to February (‐54 to +36%). From 1960 to 2006, the proportion of total rainfall that falls in heavy events has increased at a rate of 0.67% per decade since 1960 and is projected to increase by an additional 0 to 14%, by the 2090s, partly due to increases in heavy events from September to November (0 to 17%), and from June to August (0 to 12%). The magnitude of one and five day rainfalls is projected to rise by a maximum of 33 and 46mm, respectively by the 2060s, and 54 and 84mm by the 2090s, from the observed mean (1970-1999) of 124.4mm for one day rainfall and 235.5mm for five day rainfall. 4. A Mekong River Commission (MRC) study4 assessed the impacts of climate change and development on Mekong flow regimes from 2010 to 2050. Results show that mean annual temperature for A2 scenario is predicted to increase by 0.7°C over the entire basin; 0.9°C for the Upper Mekong Basin (UMB) and 0.7°C for the Lower Mekong Basin (LMB). The study predicted that temperature in the Mekong Basin will increase at about 0.020–0.023°C/year. Mean annual rainfall for the entire Mekong Basin under A2 and B2 scenarios is expected to increase by approximately 3-5 percent, whereas the increase in the LMB is about 2.4-4.5 percent. Precipitation is projected to increase more in the dry season (November –April) than in the wet season (May-October). A2 scenario predicts the wet season to carry more rainfall, with an increased precipitation rate of 1.2–1.5 mm/year. 5. Simulation results using high resolution regional climate scenarios of .22 degree (approximately 25kmx25km) and rescaling to resolution of 20x20km based on dynamic downscaling process using PRECIS regional climate model and ECHAM4 GCM data, indicate that, under the A2 and B2 climate scenarios, the Mekong Region will become slightly warmer5, with duration of warming extended to longer periods and covering wider areas than current conditions.6 The rainfall estimates show fluctuation in the first half of this century and increasing in the latter half of the century. The increasing trend is more due to increased rainfall intensity rather than the length of the rainy season, which is estimated to be almost unchanged as the current. Figure 1 show the baseline and

4 Mekong River Commission. 2011. MRC Management information Booklet Series No. 4: Impacts of climate change

and development on Mekong flow regimes: First assessment – 2009. Phnom Penh. 5 WDRG,2009: Water and Climate Change in the Lower Mekong Basin: Diagnosis & recommendations for adaptation,

Water & Development Publications - Helsinki University of Technology, TKK-WD-06 , Helsinki University of Technology (TKK) and SEA START Regional Center, ISBN 978-951-22-9920-1 6 The Water and Development Research Group (WDRG), Helsinki and the South East Asia START Regional Centre

(2009) used a regional climate model PRECIS (Providing Regional Climate for Impact Studies developed by the UK Met Office, Hadley Centre) at 25km resolution to provide climate change projections for the Mekong Region.

3

projected temperature scenarios for 2030, 2060s and 2090s, while Figure 2 shows the baseline and projected rainfall.

Figure 1: Projected maximum temperature in the lower Mekong River Basin against the baseline (1980s) (Decadal average)

Figure 2: Annual precipitation in the 1980s and future change in percentage

6. Basin hydrology. Impact of climate change on the hydrological conditions of the Cambodian floodplains7 is determined by regional flow changes resulting from the influence of climate change on temperature and rainfall in the upper parts of the basin, and impact of sea level rise. Using the downscaled climate scenarios as input to hydrological model, TKK and SEA START, was able to determine that basin hydrology will undergo large changes and will have very significant impacts on the future Tonle Sap flood pulse. It is noted that the Cambodian floodplains is likely to be wetter with higher water levels and more extensive flooded area as well as longer flood duration. Simulation results show that average annual discharge of the Mekong at Kratie will increase by 4.3% in 2010-2049 compared to the baseline decade (1995-2004), with daily average wet season discharges (May-October) increasing by 5% and daily average dry season discharges (November –April) decreasing by 2% compared to the baseline8 (Table 1).

7 Includes the area from Kratie down to Vietnam-Cambodia border, excluding the Tonle Sap system and including

Kampong Cham. 8 K. Va¨ stila¨ et al. 2010. Modelling climate change impacts on the flood pulse in the Lower Mekong floodplains.

Journal of Water and Climate Change. UK.

4

Table 1: Total daily average discharges and daily average discharges in the rainy and dry season simulated by

the VIC model for the Mekong at Kratie for the baseline period (1995-2004) and future decades

BASELINE 1995–2004

FUTURE DECADES

2010s 2020s 2030s 2040s 2010–2049

Daily average Q [m3/s]

14.540 14.358 15.589 14.853 15.864 15.166

Change to baseline [%]

-1.25 7.22 2.15 9.10 4.30

Rainy season [m3/s]

25.750 25.333 27.919 26.580 28.457 27.072

Change to baseline [%]

-1.62 8.42 3.22 10.51 5.14

Dry season [m3/s]

3.319 3.368 3.248 3.113 3.258 3.247

Change to baseline [%]

1.49 -2.14 -6.22 -1.84 -2.18

Source: WDRG, 2009. Water and Climate Change in the Lower Mekong Basin: Diagnosis & recommendations for adaptation.

7. Increases in annual mean flow is seen at 4 to13 percent for the wet season and 10 to 30 percent for the dry season in the Lower Mekong Basin.9 The largest increases will come from the Chinese border to Kratie in Cambodia caused by the predicted increase in rainfall in the upper parts of the LMB and unchanged or even a decrease in rainfall in the lower parts including Cambodia and the Mekong Delta. The increased flow in the Mekong River will improve water availability in the dry season, but also increase the risk of flooding in the wet season. The areas affected by flooding due to rainfall and upstream freshwater flow from the Mekong River Basin are estimated to increase by 9%. Areas with flooding depths as high as 2 meters are estimated to increase by almost 40%. 8. An increasing trend in the annual maximum water depth and flooded area in the Cambodia floodplains during the average and driest water years has been noted.10 The increase in annual maximum water depth and flooded area from the baseline period (1995-2004) range from -3–12% and -3–14%, respectively. The absolute increase in maximum depth is greatest in the Tonle Sap area, although relative changes are higher in the Cambodian floodplain and the Mekong Delta. 9. Flooding. In 2013, Cambodia was ranked eighth among the top 15 countries with the highest risk of impact from climate change due to its weak adaptive capacity, poor infrastructure, and limited institutions.11 Climate change has increased the number of extreme climate events, such as floods and droughts, damaging agricultural production and livelihoods and constraining development and poverty alleviation. The main natural hazard to which Cambodia is exposed to is floods, followed by droughts, epidemics and storms. Many communities living along the Mekong River and its tributaries, as well as from the Tonle Sap lake, have proven to be vulnerable to natural hazards.

9 See Footnote 13.

10 Water year is defined based on the flood timing, and starts on May 1st and ends on April 30th. The term ‘driest

water year’ therefore describes the years that are driest (average annual flow is lowest), ‘wettest water year’ describe the years that are the wettest (average annual flow is highest) and ‘average water year’ the average years within each of the simulated future decades. 11

Bündnis Entwicklung Hilft. 2013. World Risk Report. Berlin.

5

10. In the last quarters of 2011 and 2013, a combination of heavy rains and typhoons caused extensive flooding across the country, resulting in extensive damages to agriculture, infrastructure and loss of livelihoods. The 2011 floods affected 350,000 households (over 1.5 million people), evacuated 52,000 households, and affected 18 out of 24 provinces in Cambodia. A report on Cambodia’s disaster management12 shows that four provinces along Mekong River and Tonle Sap were worst hit by floods in 2011 and 2013, 250 people were dead and 23 people sustained injuries in the floods. In agriculture, about 431,000 hectares of transplanted rice fields were affected, and 267,000 hectares of rice fields were damaged. In transport, 925 kilometers of the national, provincial and urban roads were affected and 360 kilometers of the roads were damaged. The 2013 floods, on the other hand, affected 20 out of 24 provinces, 377,354 households and claimed 168 lives and forced 31,314 households to evacuate themselves to safe areas. Although the floods in 2013 appeared to have been less extensive in scale than that of the 2011 floods, the impact in some provinces– including number of evacuated families, damaged crops, damaged infrastructure - was more significant due to unexpected gravity of the floods, both in extent and intensity, longer time for waters to recede, repeated floods and flash floods, limited preparedness and advance early warning undertaken. The provinces affected by extensive flooding in Cambodia include Prey Veng, Kandal, Kampong Cham, Svay Rieng, Banteay Meanchey and Kampong Speu. 11. Total damage and loss caused by the 2013 floods is estimated at $356 million, of which $153 million represented the destruction of physical assets (damage) in the affected areas, and $203 million are estimated losses in production and economic flows (Table 2). Damage represented 43 percent of total economic impact of the floods, while the remaining 57 percent was loss. About half the total damage and loss from flooding across all sectors occurred in agriculture, livestock and fisheries, accounting to $152 million in 2013. This however is lower than the $180 million damage and loss in 2011. In infrastructure, national and rural roads were mostly affected by the 2013 floods, where damage is estimated at $80 million. Damage and loss in water and sanitation is roughly estimated at $2.7 million, but still significant. Impact on livelihoods, translated to household income loss, is estimated to account for about $36.6 million or around 18 percent of total losses. B. Climate Change Impacts and Vulnerability in Kampong Cham Province

i. Nine provinces under the RRIP II

12. Hazard and exposure. The nine provinces in the Rural Roads Improvement Project II (Figure 3a) are located in flood prone areas according to the flood hazard risk index map shown in Figure 3b. The map also indicates that Kampong Cham is one of the nine provinces and is geographically located along the Tonle Sap natural flood plain catchment. Hence, as seen in the map below, it is one of the places in Cambodia where the flood hazard risk is high.

12

Leng Heng An. 2014. Country Report of Cambodia Disaster Management. Kobe, Japan.

6

Table 2: Summary of Damage and Loss

Figure 3: Flood Hazard Risk Index in the context of the sites under RRIPII

a) Nine provinces under the RRIP II b) Flood Hazard Risk Index

Source: WB-GFDRR, 201113

1. Banteay Meanchey 6. Kampong Thom

2. Battambang 7. Pursat

3. Kampong Cham 8. Siem Reap

4. Kampong Chhnang 9. Takeo

5. Kampong Speu

13

WB-GFDRR, 2011: Climate Risk and Adaptation Country Profile Vulnerability, Risk Reduction, and Adaptation to Climate Change.

Damage Loss Total Damage Loss Total Damage Loss Total

Economic Sectors 1.05 59.01 60.06 40.80 138.80 179.60 2.54 164.59 167.13

Agriculture, Livetock and

Fisheries

0.09 56.42 56.51 40.80 138.80 179.60 0.36 151.50 151.86

Industry/Commerce 0.96 2.59 3.55 n/a n/a n/a 2.15 11.30 13.45

Tourism n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a 0.03 1.73 1.76

Market n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a 0.06 0.06

Social Sectors 39.55 3.33 42.88 34.70 - 34.70 16.47 38.36 54.83

Housing and Shelter 15.28 3.29 18.58 11.70 - 11.70 0.65 0.55 1.20

Health 0.06 0.04 0.10 3.00 - 3.00 0.17 0.09 0.26

Education 24.21 0.00 24.21 20.00 - 20.00 15.65 0.12 15.77

Livelihoods 37.60 37.60

Infrastructure 17.26 11.49 28.75 375.70 34.70 410.40 134.27 0.00 134.27

National and Rural Roads 14.39 11.08 25.47 328.60 23.30 351.90 79.61 - 79.61

WATSAN 0.06 0.39 0.46 20.00 11.40 31.40 2.66 - 2.66

Water and Irrigation

System

2.78 0.01 2.79 27.10 0.00 27.10 52.00 - 52.00

Electrical Network 0.03 0.01 0.03 n/a n/a n/a n/a - 0.00

Cross-Cutting Sector 0.21 0.10 0.31 0.00 n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a

Environment 0.03 0.10 0.13 n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a

Public Administration 0.17 0.00 0.18 n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a

TOTAL 58.06 73.93 132.00 451.20 173.50 624.70 153.28 202.94 356.23

Source: PFERNA Team Assessment, 2013 (ADB, 2012; RGC, 2010a)

Effects (million US$)

2013 FloodSectors and Sub-sectors 2009 Ketsana Typhoon

Effects (million US$) Effects (million US$)

2011 Flood

Kampong Cham

7

13. This map also confirmed the findings of the assessment done during the NAPA preparation (MOE, 2005) and the PPCR Phase 1 (MOE, 2013). Historical records of droughts and floods show that the nine provinces under RRIP II are vulnerable to both floods and droughts (Figure 4). As consolidated by PPCR Phase 1, the degree of the (physical) vulnerability of the nine provinces to floods is higher than the vulnerability to droughts (Table 3). Five out of nine provinces are vulnerable to floods while the rest are quite vulnerable. For drought, Battambang is highly vulnerable followed by B. Mencheay as vulnerable; the rest are quite vulnerable, including Kampong Cham. In this context, vulnerability refers to physical vulnerability, given the fact that the provinces are exposed to the particular hazards (proximity to Tonle Sap) and the sensitivity due to its topography (i.e., low lying areas).

Figure 4: Level of Vulnerability to Droughts and Floods by Provinces

Source: MOE, 200614

14

MOE, 2006: National Adaptation Program of Action to Climate Change (NAPA)

8

Table 3: Physical Vulnerability of the nine provinces (Final Report, VA under PPCR1) PROVINCE NAPA ASSESSMENT LEGEND

Vulnerability to floods Vulnerability to Drought

1. Banteay Meanchey 3 3 Very vulnerable 4

2. Battambang 3 4 Vulnerable 3

3. Kampong Cham 3 2 Quite vulnerable

2

4. Kampong Chhnang 2 2 Least vulnerable 1

5. Kampong Speu 2 2

6. Kampong Thom 3 2

7. Pursat 2 2

8. Siem Reap 2 2

9. Takeo 3 2

ii. Kampong Cham Province

14. Geography of Kampong Cham is primarily lowlands. The main river is the Mekong River which forms the eastern border of the province, separating it from Tbong Khmum province. In January 2014, Kampong Cham was officially divided into two provinces. The land west of the Mekong remained Kampong Cham while those east of the river became Tbong Khmum province. 15. Demography Outside of the national capital, Kampong Cham is Cambodia’s most populous province with 1.8 million people, with almost 60% of the population under the age of 25. It has a total population growth rate of 0.44% from 1998 to 2008 compared to a higher urban growth rate of 2.14% (NIS, 2008)15. A summary of related statistics is presented in Table 4.

Table 4: Kampong Cham at a Glance (Source: Commune Database Online, 2010)16

Population: 1,884,472

Total number of households (HHs): 396,141

Aged 18-60: 51.7%

Male: 48.4%

Female: 51.6%

Proportion and number of HHs employed in Agriculture:

80.4%, 318,674 HHs

Poverty rate (2011): 19%17

Human Development Index (2004) 0.47

Population density: 247% (% of National Average)

Number of Districts: 17

Number of Communes, including 173

15

NIS, 2008: General Population Census of Cambodia 2008, Provisional Population Totals, funded by JICA 16

http://db.ncdd.gov.kh/cdbonline/home/index.castle 17

Ministry of Planning. 2014. National Strategic Development Plan 2014-2018. Phnom Penh.

9

Sangkats:

Socio-economic index: < than 0.518

Population getting safe water (2011):

44.48%

16. Socio-economic vulnerability of Kampong Cham province include high dependency on low, erratic, and insecure sources of cash income to buy basic household needs including food. Another characteristic vulnerability is illiteracy, which is associated with higher levels of poverty and low incomes, and higher rates of child malnutrition. A further set of vulnerabilities here relate to remoteness from markets, major transport networks and social services such as health and education (World Food Program website19). 17. Climate change impact and vulnerability. Overall mean monthly temperature in Kampong Cham has increased from periods 1960-1990 to 1990-2009 (Figure 5). Minimum to maximum temperature increase ranges from 25.2oC-29.5oC in 1960-1990, and 25.5oC-31.2oC in 1990-2009. Minimum temperature of the coldest month (December) is seen to increase from 25.19oC in the 1960s to 25.49oC in the 1990s.

Figure 5: Mean monthly temperature in Kampong Cham

Source: World Bank’s Climate Change Knowledge Portal

18. Projections in overall mean temperature indicate that Kampong Cham will be much warmer compared to the baseline period (1980-1999) under the A2 emission scenario, as illustrated by climate data from nine global circulation models (GCMs)20 used in the analysis (Table 5). Mean temperature of the warmest month (April) will likely

18

The socio-economic index for Cambodia’s communes ranges from 0.29 to 0.94 – with a high index reflecting more vulnerability. 19

http://www.foodsecurityatlas.org/khm/country/provincial-Profile/Kampong-Cham 20

World Bank. 2014. Climate Change Knowledge Portal based on results from nine Global Circulation Models: (i) Canadian Centre for Climate Modeling & Analysis, (ii) Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction, Met Office (UK), (iii) Australia's Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation, (iv) Bjerkness Centre for Climate Research (Norway), (v) US Dept. of Commerce / NOAA / Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, (vi) Météo-France / Centre National de Recherches Météorologiques (France), (vii) US Dept. of Commerce / NOAA / Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, (viii) Meteorological Research Institute (Japan), (ix) Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction, Met Office (UK).

25.6

26.91

28.4

29.46 28.78

28.12 27.58 27.57 27.28 27.02

26.24

25.19

26.45

27.48

29.51

30.51

29.21

31.16

27.85 27.93 27.61 27.41

26.32 25.49

24

26

28

30

32

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

1960-1990 1990-2009

10

have a minimum increase of 25.3oC by 2020s, 25.6oC by 2040s, and 27.7oC by 2100s while maximum increase will be at 35.6oC by 2020s, 36oC by 2040s, and 38oC by 2100s.

Table 5: Mean projected temperature for Kampong Cham (o C)

GCMs Baseline Period

Likely range

1980-1999 2020-2039 2040-2059 2060-2079 2080-2099

January 20.6-24.8 21.3-25.2 21.7-26.3 22.3-27.3 23.1-29.1

February 22-27.1 22.5-28.1 23.2-28.5 23.7-29.9 24.7-31.3

March 23.5-31.2 24.3-32.4 24.7-33.1 25.3-33.8 26.6-34

April 24.4-34.2 25.3-35.6 25.6-35.9 26.4-37.1 27.7-38.4

May 24.5-32.8 25.3-34.2 25.8-35.2 26.4-36.3 27.4-38.2

June 24-28.9 24.8-30.1 25.1-31.1 25.9-31.5 26.7-33.8

July 23.9-27.7 24.4-28.5 24.8-29.2 25.5-30.1 26.3-31.1

August 24.2-27.5 24.7-28.2 24.9-29.1 25.7-30.1 26.5-31.1

September 24-27.6 24.8-28.5 25.3-29.2 25.9-29.8 26.7-30.9

October 23.7-27.2 24.1-28.2 24.6-28.7 25.2-30.1 26.2-31.2

November 22.6-26.9 22.9-27.9 23.5-28.1 24.5-29.1 25.1-31.0

December 20.7-24.7 21.6-26.1 21.9-26.3 22.9-27.7 24.2-29.4 Source: World Bank Climate Change Knowledge Portal

19. The vulnerability map prepared by the Ministry of Rural Development (MRD) for the Rural Roads Improvement Project Climate Change Adaptation Output shows maximum temperature increase in both wet and dry season to range from 33.51-34oC by 2050 (Figure 6). In areas surrounding Kampong Cham, average evapotranspiration in the wet season is projected to increase from 5.7 to 5.8mm/day, and from 6.6 to 6.7mm/day in the dry season (Figure 7). Increases in temperature generally results to an increase in potential evaporation largely because the waterholding capacity of air is increased. As a consequence, precipitation is expected to increase as well, resulting in higher levels of ground water. 20. Overall mean monthly rainfall for the period 1960-1990 and 1990-2009 did not show any consistent increase or decrease, although heavy rainfall was experienced from July to September (Figure 8).

11

Figure 6: Average maximum temperature in the wet (a) and dry (b) season projected to 2050

a b

Figure 7: Average potential evapotranspiration in

wet (a) and dry (b) season projected to 2050 a b

12

Figure 8: Mean Monthly Rainfall in Kampong Cham, 1960-1990 & 1990-2009

Source: World Bank’s Climate Change Knowledge Portal.

21. While there is variation in monthly rainfall, the GCMs still expect a substantially wetter rainy season, with higher rainfall during the rainy season, i.e. June to September. Mean monthly rainfall reached up to 418.9mm during the baseline period (1980-1999) in Kampong Cham. Rainfall projections across multiple GCMs show an increase in rainfall due to projected increase in wet season rainfall in June-August (190.3-396.8mm by 2090) and September-November (23.7-418.9mm by 2090) compared to the baseline (Table 6). More intense rain during the rainy season can be an indicator of potential damage from floods or erosion, as well as potential increases in crop damage due to heavy rains.

Table 6: Mean projected rainfall for Kampong Cham (mm)

GCMs Baseline Period

Likely range

1980-1999 2020-2039 2040-2059 2060-2079 2080-2099

January 5.2-103.6 3.6-83.9 4.6-80.1 5.5-89.9 1.5-89.8

February 5-54 0.8-41.2 0.9-46.8 3.9-56.9 0.5-50.1

March 9.2-76.9 5.3-62 7.8-74.4 2.4-99.7 1.4-55.2

April 36.7-182.7 33.4-136.5 28.5-186.5 36.2-228.6 35.2-164.5

May 160.5-347.9 157.3-315.3 143.5-319.6 160.3-347 104.7-320.7

June 204-367.4 198.3-346.8 203.1-374.3 223.4-373.4 200.7-332.4

July 193.3-371.4 197.5-361.1 222.6-379.9 217.3-361.2 199.4-389.6

August 222.4-418.9 253.6-415.6 220.9-390.5 204.2-387.7 190.3-396.8

September 264.9-393.9 270.2-433.5 286.4-397.9 266.9-458.9 274.4-411.9

October 124.4-237.3 124.7-268.8 122.4-255.2 137.8-283.9 148.7-255.3

November 30-185.5 12.2-191.9 25.3-170.7 28-178.9 23.7-160.1

December 8-176.3 11.4-160.5 10.4-174.7 2.1-157.8 2.6-136.1 Source: World Bank Climate Change Knowledge Portal

22. The maps summarizing projected results indicate an increase in precipitation in the wet season ranging from 7.06mm/day to 8.45mm/day by 2050, and from 1.52 to

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Rai

nfa

ll (m

m)

1960-1990 1990-2009

13

1.78mm/day in the dry season (Figure 9). Annual rainfall is expected to increase from 121 to 130mm (Figure 10) while maximum water on the ground is projected to rise from 181 to 300mm. Precipitation and ground water level, and, depending on the slope of the ground, permeability of the soil, and the area of impervious surface within the basin, could increase the amount of runoff in a basin and decrease the amount of precipitation that becomes groundwater.21 With climate change, soil erosion could increase from 0 to 0.35kg/m2 by 2050 in the surrounding areas of Kampong Cham (Figure 11). 23. Projected climate change scenarios have been assessed for its likely impacts on flooding behavior in the lower Mekong basin.22 The effects of climate change projected in mean seasonal and annual stream flows at key locations along the Mekong River over the period 1985-2000 to 2042-2050 are presented in Table 7.23 In Kampong Cham province, mean annual flows are expected to increase by 14.7% during high flow season and by 21.8% during low flow season. The reason for a higher increase during the low flow season is that the existing dams become fuller at the end of the wet season due to increases in wet season flows, therefore allowing greater dry season flow releases.

Figure 9: Precipitation in the wet (a) and dry (b) season

projected to 2050 a b

21

See footnote 13. 22

A hydrological and hydrodynamic model complex of the MRC Decision Support Framework (DSF) was used to predict the impacts of climate change on the Mekong flow regime. 23

See Footnote 15.

14

Figure 10: Annual rainfall projected to 2050

Figure 11: Soil erosion projected to 2050

Table 7: Impact of Projected Climate Change on Mean Seasonal and Annual Stream flows, Mekong

Basin (Baseline Development Conditions, IPCC A2 Scenario)

Source: Hoanh et al 2010, Tbales 6.1, 6.2 and 6.3 Pages 48-49, MRC.

1985-00 2042-50 Change 1985-00 2042-50 Change 1985-00 2042-50 Change

Kampong Cham

20,935 24,009 3,074

(14.7%)

3,650 4,447 797 (21.8%) 12,292 14,228 1,936

(15.8%)

Phnom Penh 20,217 22,175 1,958

(9.7%)

3,718 4,514 800 (21.5%) 11,967 13,345 1,378

(11.5%)

Mean High Flow Season Discharge

(m3/s)

Mean Low Flow Season Discharge

(m3/s)

Mean Annual Discharge (m3/s)Location

15

24. The impact of climate change on flooding behavior along the Mekong river was also determined in terms of number of flood days or days with discharges higher than the mean high flow season discharge. Over the baseline period 1985-2000, mean number of flood days in Kampong Cham was 91, and is projected to increase by 4.4% over the period 2042-2050 (Table 8). Table 8: Impact of Projected Climate Change on Mean Annual ‘Flood Days’, Mekong Basin

(Baseline Development Conditions, IPCC A2 Scenario)

25. Vulnerability of Kampong Cham to flooding is generally high. During flood seasons, the Lower Mekong Basin, including Kampong Cham, faces major mainstream floods with inundations of large areas of the Cambodian floodplain and the Mekong Delta.24 The occurrences of floods can be visually represented by looking at the hydrographs for the gauge height in metres for the years 1994-2012 recorded on the Kampong Cham ISG.25 The minimum and maximum levels are shown in Figure 12 below. The occurrences of floods in 1996, 2001, and 2011 can be clearly seen from the data. Flooding is, accordingly, driven by two parameters: overflow of Tonle Sap river and Mekong tributaries, inundating the provinces, and heavy local rainfall. Kampong Cham, located along the Mekong tributary, is affected by the first type of flood.

Figure 12: Minimum and Maximum Flood Levels Kampong Cham in MASL 1994-2012

Source: TA Consultant’s (TA 8322-CAM: Mekong River Island Connectivity Output) analysis

24

Mekong River Commission (MRC). 2012. “The Impact & Management of Floods & Droughts in the Lower Mekong Basin & the Implications of Possible Climate Change” Working Paper (2011-2015). Mekong River Commission. 25

Asian Development Bank. 2013. Technical Assistance for the Mekong River Island Connectivity Output. Consultants’ Final Report. Manila (TA 8322-CAM).

1985-2000 2042-2050 Change

Kampong Cham 20,935 91 95 4 (4.4%)

Phnom Penh 20,217 93 98 5 (5.4%)

Location Mean Annual Number of Flood

Days (> Qhf)

Mean High Flow Season

Discharge Qhf (m3/s)

0.0

5.0

10.0

15.0

20.0

19

94

19

95

19

96

19

97

19

98

19

99

20

00

20

01

20

02

20

03

20

04

20

05

20

06

20

07

20

08

20

09

20

10

20

11

20

12

Min Max

16

26. A flood simulation study calculated flood depth and duration in the surrounding areas in Kampong Cham using water levels as input for a flood model for the period 1985-2005. Results show that shoreline areas, likely at lower elevations, experience higher flood durations, which is evident in the poorer quality or absence of roads in many of these areas (Figure 13). Figure 14 shows that the flood durations are lower during dry years and longer during wet years (Figure 15). Figure 15 illustrates that the higher probability flood areas, the shoreline areas, have the highest flood depths of up to five meters. 27. During the 2011 and 2013 floods, the number of affected families in Kampong Cham reached 51,376 in 2013, while only 33,436 families were affected in the 2011 floods (Table 9). Figure 16 shows the provinces most impacted by the floods. In Kampong Cham, there has been a higher number of affected or evacuated families recorded in 2013 than in 2011. 28. From 2011 to 2013, vast extension of rice paddies which were close to harvest season were damaged and destroyed from floods, reaching up to 22,000 ha. Infrastructure, dams, water supply systems, schools and hospitals were likewise affected, damaged or destroyed. Around 521km of national/provincial/rural roads and 50 school and hospital buildings were affected and destroyed, including about 39 km in the island cluster. Rural roads in the islands provide access from the village to the boat landing areas where boats are used to transport villagers to the mainland or within the islands for markets, schools, and medical services. During the rainy season and monsoon, road access and boat landing have become increasingly hazardous and has placed additional burden and risks on villagers, with high fatality rate of patients being transported to mainland during serious illness or emergency.

iii. The Mekong River Island Cluster 29. Situated in the Mekong River in the east of Kampong Cham City, there is a cluster of 5 islands which are inhabited (Figure 17).26 Close to 30,000 persons live in the island cluster, which has approximately 6,900 households. The total population is sizeable, though the island cluster is rather isolated from access during natural calamities. A major natural disaster that hits the island cluster is flood, which occurs during the rainy season each year.

26

The five islands include: (i) Kaoh Mitt, (ii) Kaoh Soutin, (iii) Kaoh Thmei, (iv) Kaoh Samrong, and (v) Kaoh Pir.

17

Figure 13: Average Flood Duration during 1981–2005

Source: TA Consultant’s (TA 8322-CAM: Mekong River Island Connectivity Output) analysis

Figure 14 a and b: Flood Duration in the Extremely Dry Year: 1998 (a) and Flood Duration in the Extremely Wet Year: 1996 (b)

a b

Source: TA Consultant’s (TA 8322-CAM: Mekong River Island Connectivity Output) analysis

18

Figure 15: Average Flood Depth During 1981–2005

Source: TA Consultant’s (TA 8322-CAM: Mekong River Island Connectivity Output) analysis

Table 9: Affected and evacuated families in 2013 and 2011 in selected provinces

Source: Humanitarian Response Forum Final Report No. 07 (2013)

19

Figure 16: Affected and evacuated families in 2011 and 2013 due to flooding

Source: Humanitarian Response Forum Final Report No. 07 (2013)

30. Livelihood. Residents of the island cluster are engaged primarily in farming of cassava, corn, peanut, tobacco, and other crops, such as fruits and vegetables. The residents are highly dependent in accessing markets on the mainland Kampong Cham to sell agricultural products. Their primary source of income is agriculture, and therefore, is highly vulnerable to drought and floods which damage their crops. A few farmers use water pumps (with the water from the Mekong river as the main source) for irrigation during dry season but this is limited due to the high cost of diesel for pumping surface water from the Mekong river. Some farmers sell agricultural products in district markets and in Kampong Cham province and areas near their villages. Few have savings to buffer against these losses and income diversification would greatly benefit their ability to withstand climate shocks. Poverty is still considered a major problem in Cambodia, particularly in rural areas where majority of its population have limited access to basic facilities such as electricity, safe drinking water and sanitary toilets, irrigation infrastructure etc. 31. Services. Some islands have one primary school but none have health care services. Energy needs are met by local entrepreneurs who have set up diesel generators and sell electricity to the population. Water supply and sanitation needs are met primarily by local wells and pit latrines which families have mostly built by themselves, with the exception of a few larger wells which have been funded by local and provincial governments. Very few services are provided by the government, and the island community has become well organized for self-sufficiency. However, there are many limitations to this self-sufficiency. The type of energy provision is relatively expensive and highly reliant on diesel generation with its associated pollution. The quality of ground water is not regularly monitored and there is virtually no road rehabilitation or maintenance.

- 20,000 40,000 60,000 80,000

Kampong Cham

Banteay Meanchey

Battambang

Kampong Chhnang

Kampong Thom

Pursat

Siem Reap

Takeo

2011 Affected families 2011 Evacuated

- 20,000 40,000 60,000 80,000

Kampong Cham

Banteay Meanchey

Battambang

Kampong Chhnang

Kampong Thom

Pursat

Siem Reap

Takeo

2013 Affected families 2013 Evacuated

20

Figure 17: The five Mekong River Islands Cluster

32. Access to markets, schools, and medical services is insecure, and connectivity to the mainland and/or inter-island is critical, and is solely by boat during the rainy season. Residents of these islands use small motor boats from several small landing areas, which are not properly built for safe landing or launching, to cross the Mekong River to the mainland Kampong Cham. Each island has a main rural road under the jurisdiction of MRD that has been constructed from the village going towards the boat landing areas. However, road access and boat landing have become increasingly hazardous, especially during the rainy season and monsoons which have become increasingly intense in the area. Travel times during the rainy season have doubled, and this has placed additional burden and risks on villagers, with high fatality rate of patients being transported to mainland during serious illness or emergency. With an aging population, the slow and deteriorating access to health care services is expected to exacerbate the already tenuous health care issues for the local communities. 33. Climate change impact and vulnerability is generally high, since the exposure (hazards and isolated location) and sensitivity (high poverty, aging population) of the island cluster is high, while adaptive capacity (such as inadequate access and transportation) is low. Rainfall data shows higher occurrences of localized rain in the

21

years 1996, 1999, 2001, 2009, 2011 and 2012 which also correlates with the villagers’ reports of “bad floods” in 1996, 2001 and 2011 (Figure 18). Bad floods occur when the Mekong river reaches 16m and overflows its banks, typically during the wet season from June to November. Due to the flatter reaches of the Cambodian lowlands, particularly Kampong Cham, flooding is extensive and can inundate vast areas for several months. Localized flooding also occurs in the islands due to heavy rainfall. The flooding in the central part of the islands would appear to be driven by two parameters: height of the flow in the Mekong River and heavy local rainfall. The flood height and rainfall data indicates that flooding on the higher elevations of the islands is caused by rainfall and not by the river flooding.

Figure 18: Number of rain days

Source: TA Consultant’s (TA 8322-CAM: Mekong River Island Connectivity Output) analysis

34. As shown in Table 10, about 39 km of rural roads in Kaoh Mitt, Kaoh Samrong, Kaoh Soutin, and Kaoh Pir were affected and damaged by the 2013 floods. Furthermore, about 15 casualties and 85 losses of livestock, on the average, have been recorded during the past five years from 2008 to 2012, in the island cluster. While the loss of lives is due to disasters and lack of access during emergencies, loss of livestock, on which the residents’ livelihoods are highly dependent, adds further burden on poverty level of the island residents.

22

Table 10: Population and households in 2013 and Average Losses due to Flooding in the Mekong River Islands

a 2010 data includes HHs engaged in rice farming, cultivating long-term and short term-crops.

b Over the period from 2008 to 2012.

c Only four-legged livestock; bird-types not included.

Note: Koh Thmei is a village of Koh Soutin commume Source: Commune Statistics of Kampong Cham (2012–2013), Cambodia Disaster and Loss database , NCDM

35. For enhanced climate resilience of rural infrastructure in Kampong Cham, and reduced vulnerability of villages in the Mekong River islands from extreme climate events such as floods and drought, accessibility and connectivity within the islands and to mainland Kampong Cham for markets, schools, and medical services must be improved, and risks from flooding must be reduced through water management interventions. Emphasis must be placed on the importance of economic diversification among the villagers to reduce their economic and social vulnerability to climate shocks, and reduce their reliance on agriculture when floods or drought damage their crops. 36. Adaptation interventions should increase resilience of local livelihoods against climate impacts; provide all-year access and connectivity within the islands and to Kampong Cham; introduce livelihood opportunities in multiple sectors that are resilient to climate impacts; increase the variety of agricultural products towards species with greater climate variability tolerance; improve access to water for human and economic activities; and provide safe areas and safe transport during flood periods. III. THE ONGOING PROJECT A. Overview 37. Cambodia’s SPCR has four components, namely (i) climate-resilient water resources, (ii) climate-resilient agriculture, (iii) climate proofing of infrastructure, and (iv) mainstreaming climate resilience into development planning. The third component, with an endorsed amount of $53 million in its revised version, includes four projects: (i) Climate Proofing of Roads in Prey Veng, Svay Rieng, Kampong Chhang and Kampong Speu (as part of the Provincial Roads Improvement Project), (ii) Climate Proofing Infrastructure in the Southern Economic Corridor (SEC) towns: Battambang, Bavet, Neak Leung and Poipet, (as part of the GMS Southern Economic Corridor Towns Development Project), (iii) Flood-resilient Infrastructure Development in Pursat and

Male Female

Kaoh Mitt 9 7,700 (1,656) 3,818 3,882 2,320 2,494 1,592 8,300

Kaoh Soutin 13 10,925 (2,761) 5,356 5,569 3,338 3,438 1,386 23,420

Kaoh Thmei 1 1,637 (413) 803 834 … … … …

Kaoh Samraong 8 7,256 (1,445) 3,516 3,740 1,791 2,029 1,240 6,500

Kaoh Pir 4 2,440 (593) 1,225 1,215 598 569 506 900

Total 35 29,958 (6,868) 14,718 15,240 8,047 8,530 4,724 39,120

Casualties c

Average total

casualties due

to emergency

related access

and floods: 15

persons/year

Average total

livestock loss

due to floods:

85/yr

Island No. of

Villages

Male Female No. of HHs

engaged in

agricultureb

Population

(households)

Livestock

Losses dPopulation (18‐60

years old) a

Length of rural

roads affected

and damaged

by flood in 2013

(m)

23

Kampong Chhang towns (as part of the Integrated Urban Environmental Improvement in the Tonle Sap Basin Project), and (iv) Climate Resilience of Rural Infrastructure in Kampong Cham province as part of Rural Roads Improvement Project (RRIP-II). The fourth project is discussed below and is referred to as the “Additional Financing.” 38. Relevant outcomes anticipated in the third component of the SPCR include (i) improved planning for national, provincial and rural road infrastructure to cope with climate change impacts, (ii) increased capacity to withstand climate shocks in project-specific priority infrastructure, (iii) adaptation strategies focusing on green planning to improve flood and drought management, (iv) improved emergency planning and management during natural disasters, (v) enhanced resilience to climate change through improvements in provincial and rural infrastructure and urban environmental infrastructure, and (vi) new and additional resources for climate resilience in priority infrastructure (e.g. roads, water supply and sanitation). To achieve these outcomes, the capacity of MRD and other institutions to mainstream climate resilience in rural infrastructure planning should be strengthened through shared learning, training, and development of tools, guidelines, and knowledge products on integrating climate risk management into operational policies and strategies and in the design of infrastructure projects. Some low risk and no-regrets resilience measures, such as green planting along road embankments of project roads to improve flood and drought management, piloting early warning systems, an awareness program and emergency management system will be undertaken in the most vulnerable communities under the RRIP II. 39. In Cambodia, the principal mode of transport is by road. Cambodia’s road network of 51,764 km includes (i) about 5,623 km of national roads (primary national highways); (ii) about 6,641 km of provincial roads (secondary national highways); and (iii) about 39,500 km of rural roads. Management of national and provincial roads is the responsibility of the MPWT, whereas management of rural roads is the responsibility of the Ministry of Rural Development (MRD). 40. Roads are critical for the social and economic development of Cambodia. In particular, improved rural roads are vital for rural progress as they provide basic inputs for all-round socioeconomic development through creating conditions for better access and connectivity of people to markets and services, and of services to the village. Rural roads also stimulate and expand non-farm activities in rural areas by accelerating and enhancing production and consumption linkages that will eventually multiply employment opportunities for the poor. However, rural roads, particularly gravel roads, deteriorate quickly due to rapidly growing traffic, lack of maintenance financing, overloading of cargo, poor road maintenance standards, inadequate institutional capacity for road maintenance and management. Additionally, prolonged flooding from extreme weather events can cause substantial damage to infrastructure. In Cambodia, the 2009 floods caused an estimated $25.47 million in damage and loss of national and rural roads alone. Given their vulnerability, the rural laterite roads were particularly hard hit. As a result, access to basic services in areas around the Tonle Sap Basin, where a large proportion of Cambodia’s rural poor live, is limited due to poor condition of rural roads. This situation hinders development of cash-crop production due to limited access to markets. In addition, gravel roads are susceptible to flooding in the rainy season. To

24

address the above issues and provide safe, cost-effective reliable all-year road access and connectivity from rural areas to markets, employment centers, and social services,

ADB approved the Rural Roads Improvement Project (RRIP) (Loan 2670)27 in 2010.

This project is expected to improve about 505 km of rural roads in remote agricultural areas of seven provinces (Battambang, Kampong Cham, Kampong Chhnang, Kampong Speu, Kampong Thom, Pursat, and Siem Reap) located around the Tonle Sap Basin to paved condition and strengthen the capacity of the Ministry of Rural Development (MRD) to plan, manage and monitor road maintenance operations. Given recent natural disasters in Cambodia, particularly frequent flooding during the wet season, climate change considerations will need to be incorporated in the project design, including green planting for flood and drought management, water capture and storage systems, early warning systems and emergency management systems for rural roads. 41. Rural Roads Improvement Project (RRIP) II. In view of large scale damage due

to intense flooding in 2011 and 201328, MRD sought ADB’s support to expand RRIP by

rehabilitating additional rural roads, and introduce other climate vulnerability reduction

measures. The RRIP II29, approved in 2014, aims to rehabilitate 1,200 kilometers (km) of

rural roads in ten provinces, including the seven original project provinces (Banteay Meanchey, Battambang, Kampong Cham, Kampong Chhnang, Kampong Speu, Kampong Thom, Pursat, Siem Reap, Takeo and Tboung Khmum) to paved condition. RRIP II will also include a strong capacity-building program to improve rural road maintenance and rural road safety and community awareness program. PPCR funds will be used especially to enhance climate resilience of rural infrastructure in Kampong Cham province, and provide access and reduced flooding risk for inhabitants of the

Mekong River Island cluster.30

42. Mekong River Island Connectivity Output. A project preparatory TA (PPTA)31, amounting to $400,000, was used to design the Mekong River Island Connectivity Output, one of 5 outputs of the RRIP II. Major activities of the PPTA include initial project preparation, feasibility and project design of output 5 of the RRIP II, connectivity improvements for the Mekong River islands. The feasibility study covered the engineering, economic, social and environmental aspects of the project. The engineering part included geological, topographical, hydrological surveys, preliminary pavement design, detailed cost estimates, and implementation plan. The social and environmental study consisted of reports on environmental assessment, poverty and social

27

ADB, 2010. Report and Recommendation of the President to the Board of Directors: Proposed Loan to the Kingdom of Cambodia for Rural Roads Improvement Project. Manila (Loan 2670-CAM).

28 In 2011 and 2013, damage and loss of national and rural roads from flooding amounted to $351.9 million and

$79.61 million, respectively. 29

ADB, 2014: Report and Recommendation of the President to the Board of Directors: Proposed Loan and Administration of Loans and Grants, Kingdom of Cambodia: Rural Roads Improvement Project II. Manila (Project Number 42334).

30 The island cluster in the Mekong River consists of five remote islands, (i) Kaoh Mitt, (ii) Kaoh Soutin, (iii) Kaoh

Thmei, (iv) Kaoh Samrong, and (v) Kaoh Pir, which are highly vulnerable to flooding; the islands lack year round access to the mainland or within the islands. The lack of access to emergency facilities has resulted in fatalities of about 10 island residents per year. Improving access and connectivity will increase the climate resilience of the 5-island cluster.

31 ADB. 2013. Project Preparatory Technical Assistance: Mekong River Island Connectivity Output. Manila (TA 8322-

CAM).

25

assessment, and resettlement framework; and for the project design, preparation of drafts of the report and recommendation of the president, and the project administration manual were the main outputs. Outputs of the PPTA include proposed structural and non-structural interventions aimed at improving resilience of the villages from the impacts of climate change. The PPTA also developed a multi-sector climate change adaptation framework and associated investments for multi-sector activities (e.g., agriculture, water supply, renewable energy, tourism) that will increase economic diversification among the villagers and access to Kampong Cham for trade, education, and health care. B. The Additional Financing 43. The impact of the additional financing will be enhanced climate resilience of rural infrastructure especially in Kampong Cham province, and provision of access and reduced flooding risk for inhabitants of the Mekong River Island cluster. The project will specifically reduce vulnerability of islands in the Mekong River island cluster to climate change impacts. Since the villagers are almost entirely dependent on natural resources for their livelihoods, they are extremely exposed to changes in climate, which mainly agricultural productivity. For populations living in the islands, maintaining access to an inter-island transport network during flooding is critical to maintaining livelihoods such as accessing markets to sell agricultural products, schools and clinics. The design and monitoring framework of the RRIP II Project has been revised to reflect the additional results to be achieved with PPCR financing (Appendix 1 to the ADB Board Paper). 44. An innovative aspect of this project is integrating intermodal transport (including land and water based transport) in the design to address both flood and drought issues. PPCR funds will be used for (i) rehabilitation of rural roads and jetties to climate resilient paved condition as they become inaccessible during the rainy season, (ii) provision for small-scale levees and water management interventions to minimize flooding, (iii) development of a multisectoral climate change adaptation framework and multi-sector activities, and (iv) a community-based emergency management system. The project design places emphasis on the importance of economic diversification and access to markets and critical services such as schools and clinics. This will reduce social and economic vulnerability to climate shocks by securing mobility of island populations to the mainland for trade, education, and health care. Assessment of other livelihood opportunities will partly lessen the impact of floods or droughts on livelihoods. The expected outcome of the project is enhanced connectivity during extreme climate events, such as floods and cyclones; and climate resilient development of remote rural communities through income diversification, improved water access and vulnerability of agriculture, utilization of renewable energy, improved health and safety during climate extremes, and development of green tourism. 45. The project is consistent with the RRIP II’s impact, the country operations business plan (2014-2016), and government priorities, including Cambodia’s National Strategic Development Plan 2014-2018. The MRD’s 10-year strategy (2013-2022) of actions on climate change impacts and adaptation brings emphasis to the strengthening of rural roads and water supplies, where climate change – alongside other risks, opportunities and themes – will be systematically integrated into current core programs,

26

policies and activities.32 Climate resilient island roads are also in line with the MRD policy for rural roads to provide all year access to basic needs, economic and social facilities, and services and opportunities. C. Other Information 46. Scalability and Replication Potential. The potential application of climate change adaptation interventions include many other similar areas, some in other island clusters in the Mekong River, the Tonle Sap watershed where similar communities exist, and even in remote rural areas (though not separated from mainland by a body of water) which are totally disconnected from paved national and/or provincial road network. Apart from potential replication in Cambodia, there are other locations in Lao Peoples Democratic Republic, or archipelagic locations of Indonesia, the Philippines and Pacific Islands that may benefit from this approach, with certain adjustments, to achieve self-sustainability, poverty reduction through inclusive growth, and most of all, climate resilience. 47. Knowledge development and sharing. During project implementation, technical specialists will focus on development of relevant knowledge products that will assist the Royal Government of Cambodia to plan and develop future climate resilient rural infrastructure. PPCR grant resources will support knowledge management activities that will provide, among others: (i) better understanding of how roads can be planned, designed, and maintained to cope with the impacts of climate change; (ii) better understanding of how roads may inadvertently increase vulnerability to climate change (the state of the roads where climate adjustments have been made will be monitored through the road asset management database of MRD); and (iii) lessons on institutional structuring for integrating climate resilience into infrastructure development projects and decision-making. 48. Gender mainstreaming. The project will benefit both girls and women. Girls will have a better chance of attending secondary school, markets will be easier to reach, and “buy and sell” job opportunities for women will increase. Gender equality in labor-based rural road construction and maintenance will provide significant social and economic benefits to women. Women's jobs can include repairing potholes, cleaning pavement, clearing ditches and culverts, collecting road maintenance materials, overpass and small bridge repairs and maintenance, road brushing, and maintaining signage. Women can maintain embankments and plant and care for trees and other plants that protect against erosion. Based on this, the project is categorized as Effective Gender Mainstreaming, under ADB's Gender Mainstreaming Project Guidelines. 49. Measures to effectively mainstream gender in the project include the following: (i) capacity development activities to promote better understanding of the differential gender impact of poor infrastructure and of the social benefits of improving it (related to gender differences in the purpose of travel and travel patterns, and in mobility outside the home

32

MRD. 2012: Strategic Plan of Rural Development for Climate Change Adaptation in Cambodia, First Draft, Ministry of Rural Development.

27

and outside the village); (ii) mandatory recruitment procedures or quotas in minor works contracts, preceded by sensitization activities targeting both men (to encourage them to allow female family members to participate) and women (to inform them of opportunities); (iii) a requirement that contractors recruit a new workforce at regular intervals (e.g. every 5km) to maximize job creation and to ensure that women are not discouraged by excessive travel; and (iv) equal pay for equal work for both men and women, with a requirement that contractors submit time sheets that are disaggregated by gender. 50. Stakeholder consultation and participation 51. Consultation with government ministries. During the preparation of the PPCR Project, coordination and cooperation was achieved through a series of consultation workshops, joint field visits, and meetings conducted by various members of the design team to discuss climate resilience and other aspects of PPCR support. Institutional stakeholders include (i) government agencies responsible for the design, management, and implementation of the project such as MRD, MPWT, MOE, MOWRAM, MOP, MEF, and NCDM; and (ii) state institutions, community based organizations, and private sector institutions whose mandates share an interest with the outcomes and/or impacts of the project. 52. Different departments within MRD, MOE, and MEF, provincial governments of project provinces, provincial department of rural development were consulted in separate meetings, midterm and final workshops of the project preparation, as well as during the ADB fact finding mission to finalize the design of the PPCR Project. The PPCR project will collaborate with MRD and MPWT in developing engineering designs, standards and guidelines, sharing lessons and best practices in integrating climate resilience in road infrastructure planning, and organizing climate resilience-related conferences to strengthen Cambodia’s road sector. Cooperation with MOWRAM and NCDM in sharing climate data and commune level disaster data will be enhanced. Coordination with MOP, MOE, and NCCC in monitoring, reporting and evaluation of the project will be improved as well as collaboration with MEF in allocating annual budget for public investments. 53. Consultation with development partners. During formulation of the PPCR Project, coordination and cooperation was achieved through a series of consultation workshops, joint field visits, and separate meetings conducted by various members of the program design team to discuss climate resilience and other aspects. The PPCR project will cooperate with the L’Agence Française de Développement (AFD) in co-financing the project under outputs on rural road improvements, rural road asset management, rural road safety and community awareness program, and project management support, where ADB financing has been allocated. 54. Collaboration with the Mekong River Commission, through a program for improving navigation on the Mekong River will support modernization of inland water transport. The Mekong River Commissions’ Flood Management and Mitigation Programme (FMMP), which is supported by Germany through a project funded by the German Federal Ministry for the Environment, Nature Conservation and Nuclear Safety,

28

is strengthening flood forecasting and management capacities on the basis of regionally linked climate data and information systems. 55. Cambodia is one of the first recipients of climate related financing from NDF for the road sector in 2010, for ADB-financed project Rural Roads Improvement Project (RRIP) (Loan 2670). In RRIP I, NDF supported the development of a pilot intervention in Southeast Asia, the Climate Change Adaptation Output (CCAO), which designed RRIP II. The PPCR project will continue to coordinate with NDF in financing the implementation of RRIP II through civil works for green planting and climate change adaptation and consulting services for climate change adaptation. 56. Cooperation with the World Bank, the Government of Australia, through the Australian Agency for International Development, the Government of Korea, through the Export-Import Bank of Korea, and the Japan International Cooperation Agency (JICA) at project level was initiated during project preparation and will continue during implementation through informal meetings, having common objectives of improving climate resilience of rural infrastructure. JICA and other development partners are providing assistance in addressing the issues of road safety and human trafficking. However, much more support is needed to improve the rural road network. Germany has financed the upgrading and/or rehabilitation of rural roads under the tertiary road improvement programs. The People’s Republic of China (PRC), Republic of Korea, Thailand, and Viet Nam have, in recent years, provided assistance for the rehabilitation of national and provincial roads. Most assistance has been directed to restoring basic access by rehabilitating national and provincial roads. The PRC recently allocated substantial additional development funds to Cambodia, which will partially be allocated to rehabilitating and upgrading existing infrastructure, and to financing new projects.

57. Consultation with civil society, private sector, and local communities. A number of consultations with stakeholders have taken place during design of the PPCR project, including the conduct of socio-economic surveys for the feasibility studies. Local communities, including women, will be involved in green planting and maintaining roadside plants for flood and drought management. The process of consultation will continue throughout implementation of each sub-output and activity to afford community groups the opportunity to voice their views. This will be accomplished through a series of community consultation meetings at commune and district level. The community consultation meetings will be carried out by the PIO and the consultants. It will include the participation of representatives from the local government, civil societies, NGOs, and the private sector. The communities will be briefed on all aspects of the subproject including safeguard issues of environment, resettlement. Women will be particularly encouraged to actively participate in the consultation meetings and voice their opinions and views about the subproject design and implementation arrangements. The private sector, specifically the business sector, could come in to the project as co-investors, particularly when climate-resilient infrastructure is under consideration. Both civil society and the private sector will be engaged in capacity building processes, either as trainers or participants. Civil society, particularly, NGOs, are key partners in mobilizing community activities, generating and managing knowledge and information about

29

infrastructure development, gender mainstreaming and in monitoring and impact evaluation of activities.

IV. ADDITIONALITY OF INTERVENTIONS FOR PPCR FINANCING

A. PPCR Activities 58. Strengthened capacity of MRD and other institutions to mainstream climate change adaptation in rural infrastructure planning ($2 million grant). This activity will improve MRD’s capacity in rural transport sector planning and regulation for climate resilience through shared learning and development of tools and guidelines on integrating climate risk management into operational policies and strategies and in the design of infrastructure projects. This activity includes: (i) incorporation of climate risks into MRD policies and operations; (ii) preparation of hazard maps to guide rural road maintenance operations; (iii) preparation of guidance manuals incorporating climate resilience into planning, design, and maintenance of roads developed; (iv) provision of training on climate change adaptation in rural infrastructure to MRD staff and key professionals; (v) organization of at least two adaptation conferences by MRD in collaboration with MOE and MPWT; and (vi) development of knowledge products on lessons on integrating climate resilience into infrastructure development projects and decision-making. 59. Priority adaptation measures implemented for enhanced resilience of rural infrastructure ($7 million grant and $7 million loan). This activity supports the following strategic directions identified in MRD’s draft Strategic Plan of Rural Development for Climate Change Adaptation in Cambodia (SPRD-CCA): (i) transport mobility and access to critical services during extreme events, particularly floods; (ii) safe access to water during climate extremes, such as drought; and (iii) sustainable and diverse rural livelihoods to reduce vulnerability to climate change. Adaptation interventions include both structural and non-structural measures such as: 60. Rehabilitation of roads and jetties. PPCR funds will be used to (i) improve 193.9 km of highly vulnerable rural roads to climate resilient paved condition in Tboung Khmum province (formerly part of Kampong Cham) and 50km of highly vulnerable rural roads to climate resilient paved condition in the five islands of Kampong Cham province which become inaccessible during the rainy season; (ii) improve 11 jetties (7 on the islands and 4 connecting jetties on the mainland) using hand laid reinforced concrete; (iii) improve or construct small scale levees or other water management interventions to eliminate the risk from flooding due to heavy rainfall; and (iv) adopt bio (green) engineering solutions to strengthen embankments for road sections that are exposed to higher risk of damage due to flooding. 61. Rural roads in Kampong Cham and in the islands are paved roads which are all hand-laid cement concrete, in various conditions. Their individual width varies from 2 to 5 metres. They have been constructed by-hand using natural gravels and sands as aggregates. So far, the roads have not been reinforced. They are 100mm thick, which is quite thin compared with the normal range being used, and are suitable for the existing

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traffic on the island but not durable for a significant increase in traffic loading. Although concrete roads are stiff and strong in compression, they are brittle and can crack under heavy traffic load, or if insufficiently supported from below. Rehabilitating paved roads into cement concrete roads are the most effective solution for improving rural roads, especially because the paved roads are expected to deteriorate in time due to heavy loads and flooding. The road section design will adopt a 100-year flood design that may be replicated as a standard design in similar areas of high vulnerability so as to provide safe areas for villagers during times of high floods. Upgrading will include using concrete which is more resistant to high water content, as well as slightly elevating the embankment. 62. To integrate impacts from climate change, the pavement design will require a 150mm unreinforced concrete pavement laid on a stabilized sub-base consisting of reprocessing the existing local soils with small proportions (4% by weight of soil, approximately) of either cement or lime, whichever is the most technically suitable for the local soils. The sub-base will be cured before the construction of the overlying concrete pavement, otherwise the layers will adhere to one another. Stabilized support layers (sub-bases) are resistant to the effects of flooding and greatly improve the durability of the unreinforced concrete pavement. The improved roads will be narrower (3m) and will be used more for residential, local and tourist use. The finished top of subgrade level will be 0.7m above the high flood level to prevent movement of moisture towards the road pavement, especially with clayey subgrade soils. 63. Rehabilitation of existing drainage structures. Overflowing of water storage areas without designed outlets, or flood protection levees are also a likely cause of localized flooding on the islands. To address flooding concerns, existing surface water drainage ponds and their levees would be improved and flood protected. At present, most culverts are in bad condition. Box culverts have a high capacity relative to their overall dimensions and can be constructed in-place while pipe culverts are manufactured and transported to the work site, which would be more difficult on the islands. Except those declared to be in good condition, all the structures require replacement whether or not they are on the roads that are to be improved. This approach will avoid a loss of connectivity on any of the islands caused by the failure of a bad structure. 64. Improvement of levees and the provision of gravity drainage channels to remove excess water in a controlled way will be adapted. Levees will be constructed using locally available clay soils which, because of the clay content, have low permeability to water and are less erodible than sands. Material usually designated for low quality embankment use is suitable. These materials can be extracted from the existing local water reservoirs when they are dry which will, of course, increase their capacity as dry season water sources. 65. Improvement of jetties. For jetties on the islands to provide durable connectivity, its connecting jetty must also be durable. Consequently both the jetties on the islands and the mainland have been considered for improvement. Floating jetties are required for smaller boats without ramps that carry people to various destinations and which must land in deeper water. Many of the jetties are located on steep river banks with only a

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steep, earthen approach which is easily eroded, is slippery when wet and is damaged by the ferries. These jetties are not durable and can easily become unusable for several days after rainfall. At many locations on the islands, when the river is shallow during the dry season, a long stretch of (usually) sandy riverbed is exposed and the ferries cannot reach the permanent river bank. They offload at the water’s edge and the vehicles and people have to traverse a long stretch of several hundred meters to reach higher ground. Sometimes bamboo-mats are provided to make these lengths passable. These lengths of riverbed make connectivity very tentative and impassable after rainstorms. The bamboo-mats are a simple construction, but quite durable, being a simple cross-matrix of sliced lengths of bamboo cut and made by-hand into a 3 meter square mat. It is lightweight and simply laid end-to-end on the sand. The mats are picked up and carried to a storage area as the river water levels rises, and are put back when it recedes. 66. PPCR funds will be used to improve the jetties located on steep river banks, with permanent navigable water approaches, and have vehicle ferries. These are the first priority. Reinforced concrete approaches will be designed with drainage and adequate slope protection by conventional and bio (green) engineering solutions. They will be permanent and able to meet the needs of ferries. They will have a means of easily on or offloading pedestrians from boats without loading ramps, by using attached floating jetties to accommodate the changes in water height. Jetties with long (300m) sandy or soil approaches during the dry season and those that serve vehicle ferries are the second priority. Their design at the permanent river bank will be substantially similar to that of the first priority jetties. Temporary roads such as the use of bamboo-mats will be retained. A more durable design will be prepared to cope with the mid-season conditions when accessibility is more difficult or lost because of localized ponded water from recent rainfall or initial refilling of the channel. Except for the Koh Soutin to Koh Thmei connection, this type of jetty has been avoided because it is not possible to obtain sufficient connectivity.

67. By design, two jetties have been sought for each island to provide an alternative exit point to cope with differing water conditions and water flows around the islands for safety reasons. The list of jetties to be improved is given in Table 11. 68. The construction will be undertaken during the dry season when the Mekong River water level is at its lowest. The ramp will be constructed from cement concrete with steel reinforcement to ensure strength and durability under arduous operating conditions. It will be well founded on a supporting durable stabilized sub-base which is resistant to erosion. It must be very firmly glued to the ground below using deep reinforced concrete piers or similar to prevent any risk of sliding. Plastic sheeting or other material that introduces low friction, as is used in some concrete works, will not be used at any level in the construction of the jetties because of the risk of sliding. The jetties must also resist the forces from ferry boats bumping hard onto the jetty and the point loading from its ramp, especially when vehicles are being off-loaded.

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Table 11: List of jetties to be improved

69. The river banks at the jetty must be durable. A strong facing stone or concrete fascia will be used at the levels below the ramp. Gabions and benching of the river banks will be used for the slope above the ramp, at least. At either side of the jetty area, it will be possible to use bio-engineering approach and plant suitable grasses to resist erosion in the vicinity of the jetty.

70. A floating jetty for loading and off-loading from boats without loading ramps will be provided alongside the ramp in a manner such that it floats and slides or is manhandled along the ramp as the water level changes. The Mekong River may rise as much as 1m in 24 hours or more. Consequently, the connection between the floating pontoon and the jetty ramp must allow for these movements. This can be achieved with a simple high friction, rotating coupling. Safety rails and bollards to tie-up the boats will also be provided as well as bright, overhead lighting for safe operations after dark. A pedestrian walkway will be delineated along one side of the ramp.

71. Drainage of the jetty area will be provided by a concrete lined drain set into the inner edge of the ramp and with the ramp sloping at 1% towards the drain. Scour checks will be used in the drain to reduce the speed of the water in the drain. It is essential that the top of the jetty ramp is above the maximum flood level of the Mekong River so that flooding of the land above the ramp is not caused by the jetty itself. The land locally surrounding the top of the jetty will also need to be at, or above, the elevation of the jetty for the same reason. The minimum level of the top of the jetty is 15.2m above mean sea level. 72. Green planting will be undertaken to strengthen embankments for road sections that are exposed to higher risk of damage due to flooding. This activity is expected to increase ground cover for the infiltration of floods and water retention during droughts. PPCR funds will support planting of appropriate grass and tree varieties along at least

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900km of roads, and grasses along levees to prevent soil erosion. Improvement of levees for further protection from floods will also be supported by hard materials such as bagged mixtures of soil with suitable stabilizer. Grass can also be grown between the hardened sandbags to give additional long-term durability. The green planting activities are labor intensive that can provide jobs for women in the project provinces. 73. Multi-sectoral Climate Change Adaptation Framework. This activity will support the development of a framework on climate change adaptation and a community-based emergency management system aimed at increasing resilience. Key components include:

(i) Improved water access to reduce vulnerability of agriculture to climate change. This component focuses on physical adaptation measures such as (i) construction of drainage canals in lowland areas to divert and store excess water during the rainy season, and (ii) piloting micro-irrigation systems and solar pumping systems to reduce water consumption during the dry season. Water user groups will be created for managing the overall system and collection of tariffs.

(ii) Income generation through renewable energy. It will focus on reducing the cost of energy for household and agricultural activities through: (i) detailed assessment of renewable energy potential and identifying the most appropriate technologies to support local conditions; (ii) create rent-to-own program, in cooperation with the private sector, for group-buying of small-scale solar home systems or rent-to-own program with technical support, warranties, and replacement parts; (iii) install solar lighting systems for ferry landings to increase the length of operating times and increase safety, as well as for emergency response stakeholders; and (iv) train local youth and current energy suppliers to repair and maintain solar systems.

(iii) Improved health and safety during extreme climate events. This component includes measures to reduce impacts on human health through (i) piloting early warning systems and an awareness program and emergency response plan, including provision of and transport to safe areas for humans and animals; (ii) sanitation training program for reducing health risks during floods and drought, including sanitation with raised latrines and ring-wells in flood prone areas; (iii) provision of water purification tablets to clinics for distribution; water filters distributed for potable water; and (iv) provision for multi-purpose emergency hospital access and emergency response. A fully equipped emergency management center (including a back-up mobile unit) will be established, with early warning systems installed in key locations, and emergency management systems like appropriate communication, emergency and rescue equipment and vehicles, with trained personnel to manage the center (response teams, medical teams, etc.).This measure is expected to improve human health and safety during both flood and drought events.

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(iv) Diversification of income and livelihood for improving adaptive capacity through (i) community based tourism; (ii) entrepreneurship and small business development training program, focusing on women and youth; (iii) development of MRD credit and awards program for enhancing resilience of small businesses.

B. Economic Analysis 74. Economic analysis was undertaken to assess the overall impact of adaptation interventions on improving the economic welfare of the people in the Mekong river islands. The approach to the economic analysis follows the standard evaluation methodology for road improvement schemes. Two scenarios are used in the analysis; “with project scenario” and “without project scenario”. Data on road construction and maintenance costs, future traffic volume, and the potential benefit of each traffic vehicle were collected to derive the costs and benefits for both “with project scenario” and “without project scenario” and to estimate the economic viability of the road and jetty improvements.

i. Criteria for Economic Viability 75. To estimate the economic viability of the project, the following criteria are used: Net Present Value (NPV), the internal Rate of Return (IRR), and the benefit cost ratio (B/C ratio), where the latter refers to the ratio of the present value of the economic benefits stream.

ii. Presumption of the Analysis

76. The following assumptions are considered in the analysis: “with project scenario” refers to the improvements made to the road and jetties from the current unsealed pavement to sealed concrete pavement, while "without project scenario” refers to the project without any improvement. 77. The annual cost and benefit stream was calculated for 24 years, starting from 2013, discounted to 2013 values, and using a discount rate of 12%. Road and jetty improvements were expected to be completed by 2018 taking into account review and budget preparation, the detailed design and tendering (2014-2015/2016), and construction periods (2015-2017/2018). The Project is expected to continue for 20 years after completion. Benefits, in terms of incurred savings before the starting year as a result of some sections of the networks being completed before the end of the overall construction period, were not included. Similarly, no costs to road users have been included due to traffic disruptions during the construction period.

iii. Benefits 78. Benefits from the project mainly consist of (i) savings in travel time and (ii) savings in vehicle operating cost (VOC). Travel time savings is measured by calculating the change (increase) in vehicle speed from the road improvements, which reduced journey

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time of passengers. The value of time per hour of each vehicle type is applied as unit cost to journey times to produce passenger time cost. VOC savings is estimated by using the Highway Development Model 4 (HDM-415). VOCs is a basic item in road project (or output) evaluations and the main source of benefits.

iv. Evaluation Model 79. The HDM-4 model is used to prepare road investment programs and to analyze road network strategies. The HDM model for this study uses a series of alternatives that describe different investment and preservation options for the road. The investment influences the condition of pavement over time and road maintenance costs. The pavement and traffic conditions have an influence on Road User Effects (RUE). The model predicts traffic speed and the consumption of the rue components, such as fuel, tire etc. Multiplying these by the unit costs of the individual components gives the RUE over time. Comparing the cost outputs from various investment alternatives allows assessment of the relative merits, cost savings and benefits of the different alternatives using economic principles.

v. Vehicle Characteristics 80. The key characteristic of the vehicles are based on specified default values in the HDM-4 model, with some adjustments for Cambodian conditions. HDM-4 requires input data on vehicle age and annual utilization to calculate the capital cost component of VOCs. Vehicle age, expressed in average life, is also used to calculate vehicle maintenance cost. As input data is difficult to determine, estimates were derived from related studies in Cambodia. Vehicle registration and imported statistics have been considered, although the available data is not detailed enough to provide more than the general information of the age structure of the vehicle fleet. With many vehicles in Cambodia that are imported and secondhand, the defined service life of vehicles is lesser than the total service life, and that average age of vehicles in Cambodia is higher than that in other countries. This implies that the calculation of vehicle maintenance cost is assumed in HDM-4 to be much higher for older vehicles. 81. The average service life used as input to the model is less than the estimated average age of all vehicles, reflecting that the majority of annual vehicle-km is operated by the newer vehicles in the fleet. For practical reasons, vehicle prices used in the analysis are based on new vehicles, while vehicle age and utilization values are based on new vehicles entering the fleet. 82. The main characteristics of the type of vehicles used in the analysis, their estimated average utilization and Passenger Car Space Equivalent (PCSE) are shown in Table 12.

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Table 12: Vehicle Characteristics

vi. Vehicle Operation Cost Saving

83. Vehicle operating cost (VOC) saving stem primarily from reduced surface roughness and increased travel speed on the improved roads. In Table13, VOC savings are estimated for 14 vehicle types commonly used in rural Cambodia at various levels of roughness. An IRI of 3 represents surface irregularity of a concrete road surface. The other IRI levels represent a range of roughness levels for existing road surfaces covered by the project. The VOCs generated by the analysis are lower than those used in other recent studies in Cambodia, mainly due to the adjustments made to the calculation of vehicle capital costs, or standing costs, in the analysis.

Table 13: Vehicle Operating Cost (US$/km)

Source: ADB Estimates

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vii. Travel Time-Cost Saving

84. Travel time saving is obtained when road improvements lead to an increase in vehicle speed, thereby reducing the journey time of passengers. The value of time per hour for each vehicle type is applied as a unit cost to journey time to produce passenger time cost. The time cost per vehicle can be included in HDM-4 to value time savings, and the cost per km is calculated from the speed predicted in the VOC submodel. The savings are in addition to the time value of the vehicle itself and crew costs for commercially operated vehicles. 85. Reducing cargo delay costs can also be considered as a potential source of benefit. Freight in transit is capital and a reduction in travel time can be translated into savings in inventory cost. The saving in time can be valued by the price of capital that is the rate of interest. Also, reduced travel time can produce benefits in the form of reduced spoilage of perishable goods, or reduced disruption to production resulting from reduced delays in the supply of materials or components. However, savings are normally small and are not normally included in rural road studies of this type. Accordingly freight time cost has not been included as well. 86. Travel Time Cost (TTC), also referred to as Value of Time, is an important component of road user cost. Travel time cost is based on a premise that time spent in traveling has an opportunity cost and could be used in an alternative activity which can produce or may produce some significant utility (benefit). If the alternative activity can have monetary value assigned to it, this can be used as a part of Road User Costs (RUC) in the economic appraisal of the project, particularly for road improvements. 87. TTC varies from country to country and, from project to project in the same country. Value of time is estimated to be much higher in developed countries than that in a developing country. 88. To estimate travel time cost, the average wage approach method is taken into consideration. The wage rates of vehicle occupants are assessed and their average rates are estimated to reflect the value of time of the vehicle occupants in different vehicles. An assessment of the number of travelers in working time and non-working time is made for each vehicle type. HDM-4 allows values for work and non-work time per hour per person of each vehicle type to be specified, which are combined with average passenger load per vehicle and an estimate of the percentage of passenger trips that are work related, to produce a passenger time cost per vehicle hour. 89. The estimated value of travel time is commonly based on GDP per head of the working population. A GDP per capita is around $1,000 in 2013 (International Monetary Fund, 2012). According to ADB’s Key Indicators for Asia and the Pacific in 2012, 50% of the population was employed. Assuming average work is at 2,000 hours per year, the average hourly income in 2013 is around $1.00. 90. Taking the income of people from rural areas in Cambodia, both TA7199-CAM16 in 2009 and TA7665-CAM17 in 2012 uses a value of $0.5 per hour for the working time

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of motorcycle users and $1.0 was used for other motorized vehicle users except those in cars and 4-wheel drive vehicles. An average working time income of $2 per hour has been assumed for car and 4 wheel drive because passengers in these two vehicle types have incomes above national average. Generally in Cambodia, proportion of working and non working time is not clear. Non-work travel time is valued at $0.3 per hour for car and 4-wheel drive passengers and $0.15 for other passengers. Freight time cost savings have not been considered because the effect is normally small and not normally included in rural road studies of this type.

viii. Improvement Cost

91. The major capital costs are the costs of civil construction works proposed for each road and jetty for upgrading to concrete standard in the Mekong islands. Based on an engineering point of view, specific cost estimates have been produced based on the inventories. The cost estimates include earthwork and allied activities, sub-base and base courses, bituminous works, structures, drainage and protection work, ancillary work, unexploded ordnance, miscellaneous, day-works schedule and contingency. 92. It is assumed that civil works will be implemented in 2015. However, cost estimates are based on 2013 costs and did not include any allowance for price escalation during the design and construction period. In some cases, road improvements may not be implemented until later, depending on the size of the contract packages. The pavement design is based on the strength of the materials and the predicted cumulative Equivalent Standard Axle loads (ESA) of each road. 93. The overall economic cost used in the study assumes 85% of the financial cost to allow for taxes included in the financial costs and shadow pricing of unskilled labor. The variation of cost of improvement per kilometer depends on the road width, location of material available, and labor works. The cost for improvement in the Mekong islands is shown in Table 14.

Table 14: Roads and Jetty Improvement Costs for the 5 Mekong River Islands

Source: ADB Estimates

ix. Maintenance Cost

94. Road maintenance is assumed to take into account both with and without road improvement to concrete pavement. The cost of maintaining a sealed road (in this case

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with a concrete pavement) with low traffic is normally low compared to the cost of maintaining an unsealed road to a good standard. This maintenance cost reduction is considered as a benefit in the evaluation. 95. Routine and periodic maintenance were considered for both scenarios. The maintenance operation for each are determined within HDM-4 according to road condition and assumed intervention standards or specified time interval. 96. For the "without project scenario", the laterite and/or gravel road maintenance standard is applied to all road sections with regravelling for every 3 years and grading for every 365 days. For the upgrading alternatives, the upgrading improvement standard is applied from 2015, with the maintenance before upgrading standard applied for the years prior to the start of the upgrading, followed by maintenance after upgrading standard applied once the upgrading has been completed. 97. The maintenance criteria with cost of maintenance for with and without project scenario are based on previous studies or actual works and are summarized in Table 15.

Table 15: Road Maintenance and Improvement Criteria Items Standard Work Items Criteria

Maintenance Laterite or earth road maintenance

Laterite or earth gravelling Laterite or earth grading

Interval >= 3 years Interval >= 365 days

Maintenance before upgrading

Routine maintenance (miscellaneous)

Interval >= 1 year

Maintenance after upgrading to DBST or concrete

Overlay of asphalt concrete Concrete replacement

Year >= 2025 Interval >= 8 years

Resealing with SBST Pothole patching,100% annually Routine maintenance (miscellaneous)

Interval >= 5 years Interval >= 1 year Interval >= 1 year

Improvement Upgrading to DBST Upgrading to concrete

30 mm surface dressing 150 mm thickness of slab without reinforcement

Year >= 2015 Year >= 2015

DBST = double bituminous surface treatment, mm = millimeter, SBST = single bituminous surface treatment. Source: ADB. 2011. Report and Recommendation of the President to the Board of Directors: Proposed Loan to the Kingdom of Cambodia for the Provincial Road Implementation Project. Manila (Loan 2839-CAM). 98. The unit cost of the maintenance operation shown in Table 16 is based on cost estimated in previous studies following TA7199-CAM 16 and TA7665-CAM17.

Table 16: Unit Cost of Road Maintenance Work Items Unit Economic

Cost ($)

Laterite road

1 Regravelling cu.m 10.0

2 Grading km 120.0

3 Annual routine maintenance km 850.0

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Concrete Road sq.m 15

1 Slab replacement

5 Annual Routine maintenance km 350 Source: ADB Estimates

x. Economic Analysis Results

99. Results of the economic evaluation for each road are summarized in Table 17 for each island in terms of the EIRR, B/C ratio and the NPV express in 2013 values and discounted at 12%. All the sections evaluated are viable, but with a wide range in the rates of return. The lowest is 12.1% and the highest is 35.3%. The rates of return are correlated with traffic levels. Those with EIRRs below 15% are those with low traffic and higher than average construction costs as a result of bridge or embankment work. Benefits have not been determined for these additional works, although they would occur, and so the roads are less marginal than the HDM-4 results. The social benefit has been considered for Koh Pir in which human life cost and agriculture benefit were estimated after road and jetty improvement following GDP per capita and real GDP growth rate.

Table 17: Summary of Evaluation Results of Road Improvement with Jetties

Island (Koh) Economic indicators

NPV (US$ Mill.)

B/C Ratio EIRR (%)

Mitt 10.06 5.63 37.5

Soutin 3.24 3.15 25.4

Thmei 0.88 2.85 24.3

Samrorng 7.98 6.08 39.6

Pir 0.07 1.07 12.8 Source: ADB Estimates

100. The results of the economic evaluation for the whole project for all roads are summarized in Table 18. When all roads and jetties are combined and evaluated as a single project, the EIRR is 31.8% and the net present value $19.85 million.

Table 18: Benefit Analysis for All Roads and Jetties

All Road Sections Indicators

EIRR (Economic Rate of Return) (%) 31.8

B/C Ratio 4.43

Net Present Value (US $ million) 19.85 Source: ADB Estimates

C. Budget 101. The proposed PPCR financing, by expenditure item, is in Table 19.

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Table 19: Proposed PPCR Financing Expenditures Amount

($ million)

A. Investment Costs

1 Civil works 12.06

2 Consultancy Support 2.73

3 Livelihood options 0.84

Subtotal (A) 15.63

B. Financial charges 0.37

PPCR Total Cost 16.00

V. MONITORING AND EVALUATION 102. Monitoring identifies where adaptation interventions have worked and where further interventions are needed. Evaluation, on the other hand, examines why particular adaptation interventions did and did not work. To track and assess the efficiency of adaptation funding and effectiveness of adaptation interventions in achieving the desired objectives, monitoring and evaluation (M&E) is critical and must be integrated in the design of climate change strategies, plans, programs, and projects. Designing an effective M&E framework that integrates climate risk management at all levels (national, sectoral, project) will support Cambodia to monitor the implementation of climate change projects and programs, and take corrective actions/decisions on information generated through the M&E system. Current efforts to develop M&E systems for climate change adaptation are largely limited to a few specific projects while national and sectoral level frameworks have just started to emerge. 103. At the national level, Cambodia’s national M&E system has been developed for monitoring the implementation of the National Strategic Development Plan (NSDP) 2014-2018. Currently, a few climate change indicators from Cambodia’s Climate Change Strategic Plan (CCCSP) have been integrated into the NSDP 2014-2018. This represents a major opportunity for inclusion of additional climate change indicators to monitor and evaluate progress towards addressing climate change. The Ministry of Environment, with support from the International Institute for Environment and Development (IIED) and the Cambodia Climate Change Alliance (CCCA), is developing Cambodia’s national and sectoral M&E frameworks for climate change by integrating IIEDs Tracking Adaptation and Measuring Development (TAMD) framework into Cambodia’s national and sectoral M&E systems. TAMD indicators applied at the national level are similar to the revised PPCR indicators and therefore offer scope for synergies. Integrating the revised PPCR results framework into Cambodia’s national M&E system while providing national level harmonization on M&E systems is important to monitor adaptation projects in Cambodia. 104. At the sector level, monitoring the progress in adaptation of the sectors most adversely impacted by climate change—water resources, agriculture, and infrastructure—is critical. Several ministries, including MRD, have recognized the urgency of establishing a functional and dependable M&E system. A good entry point for integrating indicators for climate resilience would be in the sectoral results framework of

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each ministry. Under MRD’s 10-year Strategic Plan of Rural Development for Climate Change Adaptation in Cambodia, an M&E system will be established to measure both outcome and outputs and to improve programs and services within MRD. The revised PPCR results framework should be integrated into MRD’s M&E framework to monitor progress in mainstreaming climate change adaptation in MRD. An M&E Unit for climate change within MRD will also be established to monitor and implement ongoing activities under the strategy’s four strategic priority areas. 105. At the project level, MRD monitors project implementation based on an agreed set of indicators for evaluating project performance in relation to its impacts, outcomes, outputs, and conditions. To monitor implementation of climate change adaptation projects, the project’s monitoring framework should be aligned and consistent with the revised PPCR results framework. Table 20 shows the project’s key performance indicators, which are consistent with PPCR results framework. Baseline data collection, monitoring and evaluation will be done as part of the project management. 106. In aligning the PPCR results framework into national and sectoral M&E systems, MRD and other ministries face several institutional, technical, and financial challenges. These include (i) limited capacity and resources of Cambodian ministries such as involves several MRD, and provincial and commune level organizations to integrate climate change indictors into M&E systems; (ii) low level of commitment to M&E across institutions; (iii) limited coordination among institutions to develop unified M&E frameworks; (iv) lack of available and reliable data for adaptation indicators, of appropriate tools and mechanisms to collect and store data, lack of analytical capacity at the country level to generate strategic information to address challenges and improve implementation, and limited access to data; (v) not well developed baseline collection system, (vi) limited access to data; and (vii) limited financial resources and budget for PPCR M&E. 107. With PPCR support, the project will enhance MRD’s technical and institutional capacity to (i) mainstream climate resilience into rural transport planning, (ii) integrate climate risk into MRD’s policies, strategies, programs, and projects, (iii) coordinate similar efforts on adaptation with relevant ministries, non-government institutions, civil society, and donor partners, (iv) improve baseline collection system, including analyzing, interpreting and using data for informed decision-making, and (v) align the revised PPCR results framework with MRD’s M&E framework on rural infrastructure. The enhanced capacity and much improved accountability of adaptation investments in MRD would be good basis for the Ministry of Planning (MOP) to convince the Ministry of Finance to provide continuous support to MOP for M&E activities on adaptation.

Table 20: Key Results and Indicators for Success (consistent with PPCR Indicators)

Key Results Indicators

1. Contribute to strengthened climate responsive development planning

Core indicator 1: Degree of integration of climate change into national, including sector planning, in terms of:

Revised technical guidelines with climate risk integrated into engineering design standards developed

Establishment of a climate change office in MRD

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Key Results Indicators

Modification of at least 3 MRD road policies adjusted to incorporate climate risks

At least 10% increase in MRD budget to enhance climate resilience of rural roads a

Climate risk screening tools applied to rural infrastructure investment projects and vulnerability assessments conducted for projects at risk by 2020

Road maintenance operations by MRD aligned with climate patterns

Hazard maps for rural roads completed and used routinely in prioritizing road maintenance operations by MRD

2. Improved institutional framework in place

Core indicator 2: Evidence of strengthened government capacity and coordination mechanism to mainstream climate resilience, in terms of:

A Master plan on rural road construction and maintenance standards incorporating climate risks developed

At least 20 staff from MRD participates in regional climate change adaptation forums and participate in PPCR knowledge dissemination (e.g., publications, studies, knowledge sharing platforms, learning briefs, communities of practice, etc.)

At least two adaptation conferences are organized by MRD in collaboration with MOE and MPWT

At least 20 MRD technical staff at national level, including women, acquire capacity to integrate climate change adaptation into development planning and budgeting by 2020 At least 20 provincial officials in Kampong Cham province, including women, develop capacity to integrate climate risk in designing rural infrastructure projects

3. Climate responsive investment approaches identified and implemented

Core Indicator 3: Quality and extent to which climate responsive instruments / investment models are developed and tested, as reflected by:

About 240 km of rural roads, including 193.9 km in Tboung Khmum and 50 km in the five Mekong River islands, rehabilitated to climate-resilient condition

11 jetties with climate resilient standards rehabilitated or developed

At least 15-20 micro-irrigation systems piloted and implemented to reduce water consumption during the dry season

Solar pumping systems piloted for irrigation during drought periods and solar lighting systems installed for ferry landings to increase length of operating times and increase safety

Green planting completed along vulnerable roads in Kampong Cham, including the five islands

4. Strengthened adaptive capacities

Core indicator 4: Extent to which vulnerable households and communities use improved PPCR supported tools, instruments, strategies and activities to respond to climate variability and climate change, as reflected by:

One local early warning system and community-based emergency

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Key Results Indicators

management system piloted in the five islands

At least 75% of vulnerable HHs evacuated in a timely manner in affected areas a

At least 75% of all livestock moved to safe areas at the time of extreme weather events/disasters a

At least 5,000 HHs adopt early warning system and implement community-based emergency management program

At least 1,000 women are trained in entrepreneurship and small business development study for increased resilience

5. Increased resilience of households, communities, businesses, sectors and society to climate variability and climate change

Core Indicator 5: Number of people supported by the PPCR to cope with climate change and climate variability, as reflected by:

At least 100,000 people (30,000 households) supported by PPCR to cope with impacts of climate change and with all-year access to markets

At least 20% increase in households with improved livelihoods a

At least 20% reduction in damage/losses from extreme climate events a

At least 100 establishments benefit from climate resilient rural roads in Kampong Cham province

At least 50% of all people involved in green planting are women a

At least 10,000 women benefit from access to markets, schools and hospitals during emergency