Climate Outlook – May 2010

El Nino Dissipates; Neutralor La Nina Conditions

Expected by September

Stronger El Niño

StrongerLa Niña

El Nino

La Nina

now

FMA 2010precip anom

FMA precipcomposEl Nino

wetdry

wetdry

Verification: G: globe T: tropics

this (meanforcst 1997→)

rpss: G 0.019 (0.008)T 0.031 (0.015)

likelihood:G 0.009 (0.004)T 0.015 (0.008)

Heidke:G 0.077 (0.042)T 0.112 (0.068)

GROC: G 0.557 (0.539) T 0.577 (0.565)

FMA 2010preciptercilecateg

FMA 2010 precip probabforecast frommid-Jan

Verification of Recent Season Precipitation Forecast

Verification: G: globe T: tropics

this (meanforcst 1997→)

rpss: G 0.271 (0.114)T 0.473 (0.177)

likelihood:G 0.146 (0.054)T 0.291 (0.090)

Heidke:G 0.467 (0.301)T 0.727 (0.414)

GROC: G 0.717 (0.574) T 0.820 (0.626)

FMA 2010 temptercilecateg

FMA 2010 temp probabforecast frommid-Jan

Verification of Recent Season Temperature Forecast

Southern Oscillation

o

.

.D

T

ENSO-related Sea Level Pressure Seesaw PatternSouthern Oscillation Index

Last week’s SST anomaly|||||||||||

--------------------------------------------------------------------

OutgoingLongwaveRadiationAnomalies 5N – 5S

ClimatePredictionCenterNCEP

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maximum influenceon climate

Stronger La Niña

StrongerEl Niño

**** **** *******

mid-Mar

mid-Apr

mid-May

May2008

Zonal WindsReturn to Average El Nino Disspates to

ENSO-neutralBelow-Average Thermocline Depth Takes Over from West

May2009

May2010

Recent phase and strength of Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO)

mid-April 2010,

& mid-May2010

neutral ENSO

weak

+

=

MJO

Neutral(-) ENSO

current

(SST, sea level pressure, winds, cloudiness, convection)

Nino3.4 SST anomaly forecasts from Apr

Nino3.4 SST anomaly forecasts from May

from April

from May

May 2010 SST forecasts(plus and minus uncertainty scenarios at right)

MEAN

PLUS

MINUS

New climate forecasts from May 20, 2010

E North Pacific

JJAS

NTC 45% 35% 20%

ACE 40% 35% 25%

Tropical Cyclone ForecastsMay 2010

NTC = Number of Tropical CyclonesACE = Accumulated Cyclone Energy

West N Pacific JASO

NTC 25% 35% 40%

ACE 30% 40% 30%

North Atlantic

JJA

NTC 15% 35% **50%**

ACE 20% 35% **45%**

NoLocation Shift

belownormal

nearnormal

above normal

Has the 2009/10 El Nino had health impacts?

Spatial distribution of plasmodium falciparum malaria endemicity

From Malaria Atlas Project (MAP)

Distribution of Dengue Fever and Dengue Hemorrhagic Fever

equator

OutgoingLongwaveRadiationAnomalies 5N – 5S

ClimatePredictionCenterNCEP

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maximum influenceon climate

JFM 2010precip anom

JFM precipcomposEl Nino

wetdry

wetdry

JFM 2010 precipobserved tercilecategory

JFM 2010 precip probabforecast frommid-Dec

wet obsnormal obs dry obs

dry season(no forecast)

can we expecthigher risk of malaria and/or dengue?

JFM 2010 precipobserved tercilecategory

wetnormaldry

Brunei: 77 cases in JFM: high rainfall, poor rubbish managementThailand (Phuket): 123 cases in 2010: above-average temperatureNorth Queensland (Tully): 4 cases, March: recent rains and high temperature, and migration from dengue-ridden Cairns to northVenezuela (central): 26,724 cases in 2010: abandonment of fumi- gation and env’tal cleanup by Ministry of Health; water storage

Notable dengue outbreaks during first 4 months of 2010

This ppt file is available to anyone on the shared drive:

……/tonyb/iri_html /fctbriefingmonyr