climate modelling, climate change and natural resources management
TRANSCRIPT
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Climate Modelling, CC and Natural Resources Management
Carlos NavarroJ. Ramirez, A. Jarvis, J. León
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Challenges
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1.PopulationGrow
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Food security
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Produce more and better
… less water, land and resources
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How we can prepare
For thefuture? ?
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¿Where is the ball?• Where is the ball now? • Where will be the ball in 20 seconds?• Who win the match?
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Days
Months & Years
Decades
Predictibility fonts
Atmospheric composition
Actual weather
Sea Superficial Temperature
“Climate variability”
“Climate change”
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-3
-2
-1
0
1
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382/83 1987 92/93 / 95 97/98 03/04/05 09/10 14/15
88/89 99/00/01 08/09 10/11
10/11: 1.000 millones de dólares97/98: 564 millones de dólaresEl Niño La NIña
15/16??
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How to project the future?
Economic
Environmental
Global Regional
Pessimistic“Bussiness as usual”
OptimisticPerfect World
IntermediateP
E
P
E
P
E
P
E
Emission Scenarios
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GCMs are the only way we can predict the future
climate
The ModelsGCM “Global Climate Model”
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http://ccafs-climate.orgCCAFS Climate
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• Progressive climate change over agriculture (22%),
• Ecology and species distribution (58%)
• Climate dynamics (3%)• Ecosystem Services (5%)• Non-academic (i.e. policy
making, food security, and adaptation planning (12% )
CCAFS-ClimateCitations
Significant impact by putting climate change
information into the hands of non-climate scientists
and next users which represent up to 19% of all
CCAFS-Climate users.
> 300 Publications
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Progressive Climate Change
2030sCambios proyectados en clima al 2030’s (relativos al periodo 1960-1990). Resultados del promedio de 30 GCMs para el escenario CMIP5 RCP-4.5 para las regions naturales de Colombia.
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GCMs
Effective adaptation
options
We need models to quantify the impacts and adaptation options for effective design
Impacts
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Un EjemploProblemas con cafe
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Climas se mueven hacia arriba
Rango Altitudinal
Tmedia anual actual
Tmedia anual futuro
Tmedia anual
cambio (ºC)
Ppt total anual actual
190-500 25.54 27.70 2.16 5891 6002 1.88501-1000 23.47 25.66 2.19 3490 3597 3.041000-1500 21.29 23.50 2.21 2537 2641 4.101500-2000 18.36 20.58 2.22 2519 2622 4.082000-2500 15.60 17.82 2.22 2555 2657 4.002500-3000 13.33 15.54 2.21 2471 2575 4.20
Temperatura media reduce por 0.51oC por cada 100m en la zona cafetero. Un cambio de 2.2oC equivale a una diferencia
de 440m.
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Adaptabilidad en el Cauca• Cambios significativos a
2020s, cambios dráticos a 2050s. • El caso Cauca:
Reducción del área de crecimiento de café y cambios en la distribución geográfica. Algunas nuevas oportunidades.
MECETA
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Instrumentos de Adaptación
Manejo
Nuevos mercados
Alternativas al cafe