climate forecasting unit the re silience climate service predicting renewable power over future...
TRANSCRIPT
Climate Forecasting Unit
The RESILIENCE Climate Service
Predicting Renewable Powerover Future Monthly to
Annual Timescales
Melanie Davis, Climate Services [email protected]
Francisco Doblas-Reyes, Verónica Torralba Fernandez, Aida Pintó Biescas, Nube Gonzalez-Reviriego
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Climate Forecasting Unit
“The development of any business requires the ability to predict market movements over which it operates.” Ignacio Lainez Aracama, Professor of Wind Energy, EOI and Director of Energy Assessments, EDP Renewables. El País Article: 4th March 2014: Mix energético: las renovables y su predictibilidad
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PR
ES
EN
T
Weather Forecasts
Sub-Seasonal & Seasonal
Intra-Annual & Annual Climate Change
FUTURE
Inter-Annual & Decadal
ClimatePredictions Projections
PR
ES
EN
T
Weather Forecasts
Sub-Seasonal & Seasonal
Intra-Annual & Annual Climate Change
FUTURE
Inter-Annual & Decadal
ClimatePredictions Projections
Pre-constructionKnowledge for planning decisions
Post-constructionKnowledge for O&M decisions
Climate Forecasting Unit
“Energy decision makers now have a new set of climate risk management tools that can strengthen their decision making, but are they ready to use them?” Melanie Davis, EMS 2014 Abstract
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Climate Forecasting Unit
“Energy decision makers now have a new set of climate risk management tools that can strengthen their decision making, but are they ready to use them?” Melanie Davis, EMS 2014 Abstract
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Climate Forecasting Unit
RESILIENCE Climate ServiceImprove predictability of wind power generation
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RESILIENCE Climate Service
Wind Farm Operator,
Owner or Investor
SERVICE: Climate predictions from 1 month to 1 year, for wind
speed, wind power and temperature
Climate Forecasting Unit
RESILIENCE Climate ServiceImprove predictability of wind power generation
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RESILIENCE Climate Service
Wind Farm Operator,
Owner or Investor
SERVICE: Climate predictions from 1 month to 1 year, for wind
speed, wind power and temperature
Climate Forecasting Unit
INDEX: WIND POWER ESTIMATION
Use of OnlyPast Climate
0 Climate Prediction Capacity 1
RESILIENCE service
Target
In Europe In USA / Tropics
Current service
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PROJECTIONS
PREDICTIONS
Climate Forecasting Unit
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Climate Forecasting Unit
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Climate Forecasting Unit
“Energy decision makers now have a new set of climate risk management tools that can strengthen their decision making, but are they ready to use them?” Melanie Davis, EMS 2014 Abstract
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Climate Forecasting Unit
RESILIENCE Applications
Anticipate market changes:
Identify vulnerabilities and risks
Facilitate strategic climate adaptation action
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Climate Forecasting Unit
RESILIENCE Benefits
Anticipate market changes:
Ability to make decisions earlier
Avoid subjective decision making
Take calculated precautionary action
Potential cost saving
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Climate Forecasting Unit
“[Renewable] energy provision may be anticipated, not only in the short and long term as it is today, but also at intermediate horizons, where a huge market niche appears.” Ignacio Lainez Aracama, Professor of Wind Energy, EOI and Director of Energy Assessments, EDP Renewables. El País Article: 4th March 2014: Mix energético: las renovables y su predictibilidad
The research leading to these results has received funding from the European Union Seventh Framework Programme (FP7/2007-2013) under the following projects:
CLIM-RUN, www.climrun.eu (GA n° 265192)
EUPORIAS, www.euporias.eu (GA n° 308291)
SPECS, www.specs-fp7.eu (GA n° 308378)
Thank [email protected]