climate crisis in the phil

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Climate Crisis in thePhilippines

Climate Change DiscussionCitizen's Disaster Response Center

December 3, 2009

AGHAMSamahang Nagtataguyod ng Agham atTeknolohiya Para sa Sambayanan


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Outline

IntroductionThe science of global warming

Who is to blame?

Climate crisis in the PhilippinesFalse solutions

People's responses

Our calls


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IntroductionG reat and exciting advances

e.g. Information technology,automation, genetics andmedicine

Greatest challenges

Famine and hunger, rapidecological destruction, breakdownof health systems, social decayand disintegration

The Philippines is rich in resourcesbut our people are in deep povertyand face high environmental risk

one billion people are hungry

160 million more malnourishedevery day world wide: 70,000persons join hungry and starvingmasses


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M ans interaction with natureResources for the production of his needs

Food, clothing, shelter Tools, processes, technologies

M ans interaction with manRelations with others

Dominance of a segment of society over others

Current dominance of monopoly

capital

Our environment is interlinked


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What is Climate Change?


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Climate and weather

The weather is theparticular state of the atmosphere in acertain region at acertain time

Ex. Rainy/ M aulan,

Warm/mainit,Windy/mahangin,Cloudy/maulap

The climate is thelong term weather trend of a certainregion over a timeperiod

Ex. Tropical


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Climate Change:Global warmingAccelerated warming of surface due to human-related releases of greenhousesgases (UNFCCC)

Projections of Surface Temperature ChangeProjections of Surface Temperature Change


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Accelerated temperature change

1900s hottest century

1995 to 2006, (except1996) - hottest decade

2005 and 1998 hottestyears

(Sources: Climatic Research Unit of the University of EastAnglia, Hadley Centre of the UK Meteorological Office, Dataset TaveGL2v, Jones and Moberg, 2003)


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Greenhouse Effect

Rays of sunlight pwarm theearth's surface .

Earth's surface absorbs muchcomingdegrades it to longer-wavelengthinfrared radiation (heat) , which risesiabsorbed by molecules of greenhousegases a warms the lower atmosphere.

As concentrations of greenhousegases rise , more heat to the lower atmosphere.

(a)(a) (b)(b) (c)(c)


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Greenhouse Gases

Carbon dioxide C O2 considered as the most important GHG .

About 80% of the GHG emissions. Burning of oil and gas (for heat, transportation, industry), cement manufacturing,deforestation and other land uses. Also occurs naturally throughphotosynthesis, volcanoes, forest fires.

Methane CH 4 - third most common GHG ; Oil and gasproduction, coal mining, rice paddies, dams, landfills. Occursnaturally as things decompose and from livestock digestion.

Nitrous oxide N 2O - Burning of oil, gas, coal, and wood,

fertilizers, coal mining. Also occurs naturally.OT HE RS: Water vapor, Sulfur hexafluoride SF 6,

Perfluocarbons PFCs, H ydroflurocarbons H FCs


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Rise in global surface temperature

"Projected temperature

changes, 2000 to 2100scenario. " 2005.UNE P/ G RID-Arendal. 19 Nov 2009


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Rise in sea level

Trends in sea level, 1870-2006 June 2007. UNEP/GRID-Arendal. 19 Nov 2009 .


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Global changes in precipitation

Precipitation changes: trends over land from 1900 to 2000.2005. UN E P/ G RID-Arendal. 19 Nov 2009


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Effects of global warming


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Source: Science M agazine, Sep 16, 2005

Increasing Strength and frequencyof Typhoons (Category 4/5)


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Extreme Weather Events


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5 Most Vulnerable CountriesWorld Bank, 2009

Malawi droughtSudan droughtBangladesh rising sea level

Vietnam - floodPilipinas - typhoon


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The entire Philippines is a climate hotspot.

1 meter rise in sea level may effect 64 outof 81 provinces, 703 of the 1,610municipalities ~ 700 M sqm of land acrossthe country from 2095 to 2100.

Affected provinces include: Palawan,Camarines Sur, Camarines Norte,Catanduanes, M asbate, Samar, NorthernSamar, Bohol, Cebu, Capiz, NegrosOccidental, Davao del Norte, ZamboangaSibugay, Zamboanga del Norte,Zamboanga del Sur, Tawi-tawi,M aguindanao, Sulu

Source: G reenpeace. The Philippines, A Climate hotspot.


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Estimated mortality attributable toclimate change


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Philippines is disaster prone

In 2008, 253 natural and human-induceddisasters affecting 8.5 million people

M ost devastating disaster: tropical cyclonesaffecting more than 1 million (Typhoon Frank;internal displacements affecting 684,682 (landing asin top place according to the Norwegian RefugeeCenter)

In 2009, Disaster figures will surely double the2008 figuresOndoy, Pepeng, floodings in M indanao


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Children/ Women and Climate ChangeM ore than 46% of the world's

population is now younger than 25years old.Source: UNIC E F UK Climate ChangeReport 2008

Approximately 175 million childrenwill be affected by climate changeinduced natural disasters every year over the next decade. This is 50million more than during the ten yearsto 2005. About 5-12 M women &children were affected by water-based infectious diseases(Schistosomiasis resulting to bloodyurine and liver disorder)Source: Legacy of Disasters; Children Bear the Bruntof Climate Warming, Save the Children UK 2007; IbonPrimer on Climate Change


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Poor countries like the Philippinesare vulnerable to enhanced hazardsdue to climate change

Impacts are worseLack of financial,institutionaland technological capacityand access to knowledge

Impact disproportionatelyupon poor within countriesE xacerbates inequities inhealth status and access toadequate food, clean water and other resources.

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

1970s 1980s 1990s 2000s

Per

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ffected

LD C

De v 'ing

CIT

De v 'ed

-

1,000

2,000

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4,000

1970s 1980s 1990s 2000s

Number

ffected (Millions)

Dev 'ed

CIT

Dev 'ing

LDC


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Who are the world's largest emitter of green house gases?

Top 20 greenhouse gas emitters(including land use change andforestry). 2009. UN E P/ G RID-Arendal. 19 Nov 2009

US is the largestemtter in volume

and per capita


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Who is the largest historical GHGemitter?


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CO 2 concentration in theatmosphere highest in thepast 650,000 years.

Increase of CO 2 - from 280parts per million (ppm)before industrial period to379 ppm in 2005.


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Historical context

Unprecedented rise inGHG production andconcentration on theonset of capitalist

systemIndustrial revolutionM odern technology

Intensive use of machines and fossilfuels for transportation,trade and energy.


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CO2 emissions fromindustr


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Imperialism and Global WarmingCharacteristics of capitalist production

Production for profit

AnarchicWasteful and pollutiveM onopoly on production,resources, capital

Division of the world market, raw materials andwar


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3 0

Plunder and war

Free market globalizationpolicies

Unhampered entry, controland exploitation of rawnatural resources and of people.

Atrocious campaigns of wars of aggressionG ain direct or tighter control of land and naturalresources.G ain control over markets


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Third world industries

Cheap labor for reassembly of parts andreexport of goods

Use older productionequipment

Dumping grounds for

finished goods and wastes


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Role of International Finance

International finance capitalStimulate production andsale of consumer goods

Cover debt service burdenand budgetary deficits

Developing countries forcedto follow rescriptions of the

IM F and the WB which openup resources and markets


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Global warming worsens the impactof imperialist plunder

Under a systerm where profit is the primaryobjective of societal production, theenvironment and our ecosystems are reduced

to being a source of raw materials and dumpingground for wastes.

Under such a system, countries which top thelist in terms of profit and industrial might alsobecome the world's foremost culprits of environmental degradation.


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Environmental crisis in the Philippines

Large scale plunder of the environment

Without benefit to themajority of our people

Benefits only a smallsegment of society

Large scale effect onsociety


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The role of extractive industries inthe Philippines

Deforestation- Forest cover is estimated in 2000 to have

fallen to only 18 % of the total land area(ideal is 54 % of land area)

Large-scale miningL arge scale TNC plunder in mining is oneof the main causes of environmentaldegradation in the country

1550 1600 1650 1700 1750 1800 1850 1900 1950 2000 2050

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Yea r

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S urc e : C E C


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GHG emissions in the Philippines

Transport (34%), E nergy (29%),Industry (17%), Agriculture (10%),Others (10%)

Transport

Oil industry controlled by Big 3Second hand engines

M ost industrial activity isextractive and export orientedE nergy industry privatizedunder E PIRA Greenhouse gas

mitigation strategy: ThePhilippine Experience ( Oct2001)

Energy29%

Transport34%

Industri al17%

Agriculture10%

Others10%


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Climate change aggravatesenvironmental hazards

In the Philippines, disasters whether climate-induced or not add up to the alreadyimpoverished situation of the majority of Filipino

families who are living below the poverty lineThe harmful effects of climate change and thedisasters it induced bear heavily on the mostvulnerable or marginalized segments of the

Philippine population especially the poor peasants


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VulnerabilityFactors and conditionsadversely affecting the abilityof the community torespond,cope with or recover easily from disaster events.

H igh Poverty IncidenceH igh Inflation Rates

Low wages despite theincreasing daily cost of livingH igh unemployment andunderemployment rate

Landlessness/Inequitabledistribution of countrysresources


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Government policies aggravates our climate vulnerabilityOct. 29 Arroyo signed Climate Change Act of 2009 (RA 9729) Climate Change Commission

Other destructive policiesE PIRA

Biofuels ActOil deregulation lawM ining Act 1995

Forestry CodeNeoliberal G lobalizationCorruption

Bureaucrat Capitalism


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False solutions


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K yoto Protocol 1997

International agreement under the United NationsFramework Convention on Climate Change(UNFCCC)

reduce GHG emissions, on average by about 5%between 2008-2012 relative to 1990The flexibility mechanisms carbon trading

Funding mechanisms to assist developing

countries175 countries except US and Australia (Australialater signed on Kyoto)


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Failure of mitigation limits

Failure of the 1997 KyotoProtocol to reduce GHG emission

After 12 years, GHG emission continues toaccelerate..


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Monopoly capital seeks to profitmore from the climate crisis

Carbon offset mechanisms shift outcarbon mitigation and reduction out of industrialized countries towardsdeveloping countries.

Distort development activities whilekeeping consumption and productionactivities of industrialized countries.


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Asymmetric responsibility andvulnerability

Inverse relationship betweenclimate change vulnerabilityand responsibility

Primary emitter countries mustchange their productionactivities and consumption of energy and seek sustainablesolutions.

Basic human needs, economicand social development needadequate energy andinfrastructure.


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Clean Development Mechanisms

Clean DevelopmentM echanisms (CD M )and carbon tradingeffectively marketize

carbon emissionsShuffles aroundresponsibility to curbemissions.

Does not addressissue of overproduction

UNE P/ G RID-Arendal


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Post- K yoto/C OP 15

Copenhagen, Denmark 2009Opportunity to overhaul Kyoto ProtocolObama, G loria announcement in AP E C summiteffectively postpones any discussion in COP 15 about

a replacement of the Kyoto protocolPossibly in M exico later (COP16??)

Other calls to peg targets (see 350.org)


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Technology solutions

Biofuels

Renewable E nergy

Nuclear plants

RE DDG eoengineering

Carbon capture andStorage (CCS)


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L ifestyle changes?

Lifestyle change/footprintM ake CFLs cheap and accessibleProvide cheap and accessible renewable power

Provide cheap and accessible technologyE ngage in local production of goods (nationalindustrialization)

Do not sell out energy resources

Banning technologies that are pollutive

Develop products that are cost effectiveM ass transport


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People's Initiatives

y Community based disaster response - Capacity building for vulnerable communities

y Defend our patrimony andcommunities against foreign andlocal plunder

13 metallic minerals (7.1 B M T)

29 non-metallic (51 B M T)G old (2nd)

Copper (3 rd)

Biodiversity area


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People's Initiatives

Popularize and implementproper and sustainable useof our natural resources inline with people's welfare andinterests, proper technology,and mitigation measures

Popularize correctperspective towardsenvironmental issues pro-people, patriotic, andscientific orientation


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Multisectoral formations

Philippine ClimateWatch Alliance: broad,national

People's Action on

Climate Change:International

People's M ovement onClimate Change:International, People'sProtocol on ClimateChange

c


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Genuine development for all

Work towards asustainable, independentand progressive local

economy.NationalIndustrializationG enuine AgrarianReform


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E xisting environmental and social problems aggravated byglobal warming will persist until the plunder of the world for globalization's greed for profits end.

c

climate crisis in the phil

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