REGIONAL RESEARCH CONFERENCE

AGRICULTURAL TRANSFORMATION AND FOOD SECURITY IN CENTRAL ASIA

Climate changes in Central Asia (agriculture activity impact )

But only a small part of Central Asiasupports agricultural activity

• There is no unused land for agriculture activity

• There are no a unused water resources

• It means that all forces have to be directed to tasks:

• no loss of agricultural land• Increase water usage efficiency• Increase, not decline, in agricultural

productivity

It means that theagriculture sector is vulnerable

Central Asia is almost 10 times larger then Germany or France

Hydro energy and agriculture: optimal management and relation to climate changes

Past, current, and short term projections

Future plans

databases

all about water, all about land,all about management structure, temperature, and precipitation

Energy sector

Croppattern

Watermanagement

Results

Climate change: water,. precipitation

Results

Models: EPIC and its clones, DSS_Kabul_Kunduz, IBMR, Amu In use in Pakistan, Afghanistan, Uzbekistan now

was used on Amudarya, Sirdarya, Zerafshan, Kabul, Kokcha, Kunduz, Swat, Jellum, Indus, Vahsh.

We do not plan to discuss the models and their results here.

We will speak about databases and climate change

Databases: include covered area

from Indian Ocean to N. Kazakhstan, Caspian sea , and China:

Temperature

Water – quality and quantity

(river, canal, returns, reservoirs)

Precipitation

300 points, up to 110 years, monthly.

250 points, up to 110 years, monthly.

2500 points, up to 100 years, monthly.

All info about land (last 10 years)

All info about crops (last 10 years)

MODIS space photos (last 14 years)

500 points, 27 years, daily.

Energy sector

Crop pattern

Water managem

ent

ResultsDirectly used by models and reports

Selector

Statistics and models

Climate changes (temperature)Temperature observation at the Tashkent station

11,0

11,5

12,0

12,5

13,0

13,5

14,0

14,5

15,0

15,5

16,0

1890

1900

1910

1920

1930

1940

1950

1960

1970

1980

1990

2000

years

tem

pera

ture

in

C

annual

trend

Air temperature trends (Amudarya delta)

7

8

9

10

11

12

13

14

15

16

1945 1955 1965 1975 1985 1995 2005

years

tem

pera

ture

C

Tashkent

Chimbay

Kungrad

Nukus

Tahiaatash

Muynak

Temperature observations and trend on the

Fedchenko glacier

-9,00

-8,50

-8,00

-7,50

-7,00

-6,50

-6,00

-5,50

-5,00

1930

1940

1950

1960

1970

1980

1990

2000

years

tem

pera

ture

trend

temperature

Two hot points: Tashkent Nurek

Our independent investigation agrees closely with ADB results related to

temperature.

Our results are 1.5 smaller in summer and 1.3 bigger for another seasons

Uzbekistan – changes per 10 year (ADB)

We agreed closely in averages by states

State Increase in each 10 years

Kazakhstan 0.26Kirgizstan 0.08Tajikistan 0.10Uzbekistan 0.29

Info from ADB

From our point of view - it is more important toconnect temperature increases with agricultural zones

Climate change (Precipitation)

Precipitation at the Tashkent station

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000

years

pre

cip

itati

on

in

mm

/mo

nth

precipitation

trend

We do not see remarkable changes in annual precipitation, but they may exist

More interesting to look at the distribution within years

ADB found increasing in Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan

But what about this? Is this good or bad?

Precipitation at Tashkent

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

0 2 4 6 8 10 12

month

mm

1925-1950

1951-1975

1976-2001

Climate changes (Water availability)

Comparison temperature and runoff trendstemperature scale 100 (T - 10 )

runoff scale m^3/sec

250

300

350

400

450

500

550

1910 1930 1950 1970 1990 2010

years

runoff

temperature

Typical changes in the runoff shape

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

month

run

off

(m^

3/s

ec

)

"1914-1940" "1941-1975" "1976-1990" "1991-2000"

1914-1940: month 07, day 03 1941-1975: month 07, day 021976-1990: month 06, day 30 1991-2000: month 06, day 26 Comparison dry year runoff with irrigation

needs

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

month

m^3

.sec

Kerki

water demandSituation is acceptable (water availability and demand are close) but the system is vulnerable

Veg.

first part

second part

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

1,900 1,920 1,940 1,960 1,980 2,000 2,020

averagevegnevegspring

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

1950-1970

1971-1990

1991-2013

Total

veg.

non veg.

Average monthly discharge at inflow point at “Tohtogul” in MCM

Partition by seasons

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000

1930 1950 1970 1990 2010

Vegetation

Nonvegetation

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000

4500

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

1930-1975

1976-1990

1991-2013

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000

1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020

Nurek_inflow_(av.5)

Vegetation

Nonvegetation

start_veg

end_veg

Average monthly discharge at inflow point of “Nurek” in MCM

Climate change.

• Level of ocean goes up• Waves in last 20 years became

10 cm larger• Hurricanes are stronger• Floods are bigger• Droughts are deeper

Air temperature increase almost everywhere

Level of oceans goes up because of land ice cover meltingDecreasing water density as a result of heating

But water needs more time then air for heating: the mean level will go up even as heating of the atmosphere stops.

How much? It is easy to show at least a 0.5 meter rise above the level that we observe now

Almost all climate models build on atmosphere and ocean circulation and interactions

17 июля 1998 года ужасное землетрясение на северо-западном побережье Папуа-Новой Гвинеи привело к возникновению цунами...

Possible, climate models are build on quicksand

Most of models look like this or include this equationsMost of results look like this

Wind friction is a main engine and source for circulation in oceans

Do these results correspond to reality?

Possibly not

Maybe we can find another source for ocean and atmosphere circulation

- Parameter (not a variable). This is an input for models!!!!It shows the average wind direction and distribution

above sea level at fixed heights and for various points in oceans. Are these possible ????

Contra currentsSources of forces

?

Precipitation Precipitation

Shadow of rain on the continents shows direction of main streams of air

Compare differences between West and East coasts for Africa and America.Australia near Tasmania is also interesting

Level to the west of Panama is higher than to the east. Difference is extremely big in rainy season

+1 C will give +4% of precipitations but only for the rainy seasons.

Lets do not forget ADB info about 5-10% precipitation increasing in CA.

Time for heating reaction in ocean compared to atmosphere: > 10 years

Density of water also increases with temperature. Average depth of oceans is 4000 meters. +1 C will yield nearly 0.76 meter (Oceans T. = 17.5)

Maybe the Maldives has no place in the future equilibrium situation with 2C heating, whichhappened in the last 30 years and will cause1.52meter rise very soon as oceans respondto atmosphere heating. (Average height ofMaldives 1.5 meters above sea level).

Но высказываются и другие мнения. Е. Г. Никифоров на I съезде советских океанологов (1977) сказал:«Проблема объяснения современной циркуляции вод не может считаться удовлетворительно решенной даже на уровне качественных гипотез. Гипотезы о ветровом происхождении циркуляции вод не объясняютглубинную циркуляцию, а гипотеза о термохалинной природе циркуляции вод опирается главным образом на существующее поле плотности. Поэтому никаких выводов о природе циркуляции вод на основе расчетов,выполненных по фактическому полю плотности …сделать так же невозможно”.

Вызывает большое удивление, что альтернативная гипотеза, наиболее физически обоснованная, о причине образования крупномасштабных циркуляций океана остается практически неизвестной более 250 лет.В 1844 г. И. Кант предположил, что основной причиной, замедляющей скорость вращения Земли, является сила трения о дно течений, возникающих в результате воздействия приливообразующих сил Луны и Солнцана водные массы океанов.

If Kant has not made a mistake, we will have (after decreasing friction in water):

• Winter at the Siberian platform becomes colder and waves of cold will penetrate to Central Asia from time to time. This is because the Gulfstream will heat ocean ice and penetrate deeper to the North. Before, the Gulfstream moved heat exactly to Europe.

• Reduced ice cover in the Arctic Ocean will continue.

• Spring will bring more precipitation in Central Asia because the Gulfstream will be directed to the center of Europe in early Spring instead of Winter. Europe, Russia, Kazakhstan, and other CA states will receive more rainy springs then before.

• Summers will become more dry because air with clouds saves energy from friction and so possibly will find a way to cross America ridges.

Unfortunately nothing changes from this time

Current temperature growth for the last decade

We should…We can …and we made only what we can.

We have to understand what

approach was used. And this

will give us understanding

about what climate change prediction is.

And we will better understand

dynamic global processes that will determine future

paths

And we will better understand static global processes

that operate today

But can we?

Global circulation in the oceans