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Vulnerability Assessment and Municipal Adaptation Plan of

Birendranagar Municipality, Surkhet

November 2017

Supported By:

Birendranagar Municipality

Executive Summary Nepal’s National Adaptation Plan (NAP) formulation process has proposed a framework for vulnerability and Risk Assessment (VRA) using Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fifth Assessment Report (IPCC AR-5) as a base. The IPCC framework considers risk as a function of hazard, exposure, and vulnerability (GoN, MOPE, 2017). Making decisions and efficiently allocating resources to reduce the vulnerability of communities requires, among other things, an understanding of the factors that make a society vulnerable to climate hazards. This report summarizes the systemic perspective to identify and analyze the vulnerability, resilience, and adaptive capacity within several socio-ecological systems of Birendranagar Municipality of Surkhet district. Though Surkhet district is ranked one of the less vulnerable districts in the National Adaptation Program of Action (NAPA), 2010 by Government of Nepal (GoN), Birendranagar exhibits several range of vulnerabilities on different aspects. In order to identify the vulnerability of different wards of the municipality and to develop the adaptation plans, vulnerability assessment was conducted in all the 16 wards of Birendranagar municipality.

The VRA has been recognized globally as a critical step in adaptation planning and implementation.

(IPCC, 2014) Though assessing vulnerabilities is critical but commonly overlooked foundational step

in developing a comprehensive adaptation plan whatever be the scale. Knowing what vulnerabilities

exist and could therefore be exploited allows communities to pool that information with their

knowledge of potential risks and threats to the communities and build their plans accordingly.

Through the evaluation of physical and biological environment, policies and common practices,

vulnerabilities can be identified and then proactively addressed.

This report summarizes the detailed vulnerability assessment of Birendranagar Municipality divided

into 5 chapters with several sub headings. Chapter 1 is the introductory chapter which briefly

summarizes the Nepal’s climate change context and climate change impacts, Nepal’s vulnerability

ranking along with the VRA framework and background information.

Chapter 2 focuses on the literature on national and international climate change issues, national

policies on climate change such as climate change policy, 2011, National Adaptation Program of

Action, 2010, Local Adaptation Plan of Action (LAPA, 2012) and several climate change issues Nepal

is concerned.

Chapter 3 whereas is an elaborated chapter with methodology and study design which summarizes

VA Framework, Study Approach and Vulnerability Tools and Indicators. This chapter covers the

description about the detail methodological approach and the steps involved in VA.

Chapter 4 is about the Detail Vulnerability Assessment/Data Analysis and Interpretation focusing on

Climate Change Trend and Scenario (Temperature and Precipitation), Extreme Events, Hazards,

Exposure, Sensitivity, Adaptive Capacity, Vulnerability, and Adaptation Planning.Chapter 5 is a

concluding chapter and incorporates the basic findings of the assessment along with the overall

Vulnerability Index (VI) ranking of all the wards. Conclusion and recommendations follows the later

section of this chapter.

Abbreviations AR: Assessment Report

CCA: Climate Change Adaptation

CEN: Clean Energy Nepal

CWGs: Cross Cutting Working Groups

DRRMC: Disaster Risk Reduction Management Committee

FGD: Focus Group Discussion

GoN: Government of Nepal

INDC: Intended Nationally Determined Contribution

IPCC: Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change

LAPA: Local Adaptation Plan of Action

LDCs: Least Developed Countries

MoPE: Ministry of Population and Environment

NAP: National Adaptation Plan

NAPA: National Adaptation Program of Action

NCCSP: National Climate Change Support Program

NPR: Nepalese Rupees

NSMC: Nepalgunj Sub-Metropolitan City

SDGs: Sustainable Development Goals

Sq. km: square kilometers

TWGs: Thematic Working Groups

UNDP: United Nations Development Program

UNFCCC: United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change

VDC: Village Development Committee

VI: Vulnerability Index

VRA: Vulnerability and Risk Assessment

WEC: Women Empowerment Center

Contents Vulnerability Assessment Report of Birendranagar Municipality ........................................................... I

Executive Summary ................................................................................................................................ II

Abbreviations ........................................................................................................................................ III

List of Figures ........................................................................................................................................ VI

List of Tables ........................................................................................................................................ VII

Chapter 1 ................................................................................................................................................ 1

Introduction ........................................................................................................................................... 1

Background ........................................................................................................................................ 1

Key Terminologies .............................................................................................................................. 2

Purpose of the Study .......................................................................................................................... 4

Study Area .......................................................................................................................................... 4

Chapter 2 ................................................................................................................................................ 6

Literature Review ................................................................................................................................... 6

Chapter 3 ................................................................................................................................................ 8

Methodology and Study Design ............................................................................................................. 8

Vulnerability Assessment Framework ............................................................................................... 8

Study Approach .................................................................................................................................. 9

Vulnerability Tools and Indicators ................................................................................................... 10

a. Indicators for Hazards .......................................................................................................... 10

b. Indicators for Exposure ........................................................................................................ 11

c. Indicators of Sensitivity ........................................................................................................ 11

d. Indicators of Adaptive Capacity ........................................................................................... 11

Chapter 4 .............................................................................................................................................. 12

Detail Vulnerability Assessment/ Data Analysis and Interpretation ................................................... 12

a. Climate Change Trend and Scenario (Temperature and Precipitation) ................................... 12

Analysis of rainfall statistics over the past 30 years ........................................................................ 12

Analysis of temperature statistics over the past 30 years ............................................................... 15

b. Extreme Events ........................................................................................................................ 23

c. Hazards ..................................................................................................................................... 23

d. Exposure ................................................................................................................................... 24

e. Seasonal Calendar .................................................................................................................... 25

f. Crop Calendar .......................................................................................................................... 26

g. Sensitivity ................................................................................................................................. 27

h. Vulnerability Ranking of Households (HH) ............................................................................... 27

i. Impacts of Climate Change on Forest Ecosystem .................................................................... 28

j. Impacts of Climate Change on Agro Ecosystem....................................................................... 29

k. Impacts of Climate Change on Livelihood ................................................................................ 30

l. Impacts of Climate Change on Gender and Marginalized Group ............................................ 31

m. Adaptive Capacity ................................................................................................................ 33

n. Vulnerability ............................................................................................................................. 34

o. Flood risk .................................................................................................................................. 34

p. Adaptation Planning................................................................................................................. 36

Chapter 5 .............................................................................................................................................. 37

Conclusion and Recommendations ..................................................................................................... 37

Recommendations ........................................................................................................................... 39

Climate Change Adaptation Plan for Birendranagar Municipality ....................................................... 40

Municipal Adaptation Plan (MAP) ................................................................................................... 40

References ............................................................................................................................................. 7

Annex ..................................................................................................................................................... 7

List of Figures Figure 1: Climate Change Vulnerability and Risk Assessment Framework ............................................ 8

Figure 2: Schematic Diagram of Study Design ....................................................................................... 9

Figure 3: Trend in yearly amount of precipitation in Birendranagar, derived from daily measurement

data. Days with missing data are not included in this analysis ............................................................ 13

Figure 4: Number of days with strong rainfall in Birendranagar, classified by amount of rain.

Moderate rain >50-80 mm/day, Heavy rain >80-120 mm/day, Very heavy rain >120-200 mm/day,

Extreme rain >200 mm/day. Days with missing data are not included in this analysis ....................... 13

Figure 5: Amount of rainfall by season in Birendranagar municipality (Pre-Monsoon: Mar-May,

Monsoon: Jun-Sep, Post-Monsoon: Oct, Winter: Nov-Feb). Days with missing data are not included

in this analysis ...................................................................................................................................... 14

Figure 6: Change in annual rainfall projected by the PRECIS climate model for the period 2011-2040

for Nepal (Source: GoN, 2014) ............................................................................................................. 14





Figure 9: Monthly mean temperatures and trend over 31 years in Birendranagar municipality ....... 16

Figure 10: Monthly mean of daily maximum temperatures and trend in Birendranagar municipality

............................................................................................................................................................. 16

Figure 11: Monthly mean of daily minimum temperatures and trend in Birendranagar municipality 17

Figure 12: Trend in annual mean maximum temperature, derived from seasonal averages of daily

maximum temperatures ...................................................................................................................... 17

Figure 13: Trend in annual highest maximum temperatures, derived from seasonal maxima .......... 18

Figure 14: Change in annual maximum temperature projected by the PRECIS climate model for the

period 2011-2040 for Nepal (Source: GoN, 2014) ............................................................................... 18





Figure 17: Trend in annual mean minimum temperature, derived from seasonal averages of daily

minimum temperatures ....................................................................................................................... 20

Figure 18: Trend in annual lowest minimum temperatures, derived from seasonal minima ............. 20

Figure 19: Change in annual minimum temperature projected by the PRECIS climate model for the






Figure 23: Categorization of Very Highly Vulnerable HHs in Birendranagar Municipality .................. 27

Figure 24: Categorization of Vulnerable HHs ....................................................................................... 28

Figure 25: Climate Change Impacts in Forest Ecosystem .................................................................... 28

Figure 26: Climate Change Impacts on Agro Ecosystem ...................................................................... 29

Figure 27: Ward wise scoring of Climate Change Impacts on Livelihood Aspects ............................... 30

Figure 28: Climate Change Impacts on Different Livelihood Resources .............................................. 31

Figure 29: Climate Change Impacts on Different wards based on Ethnicity ....................................... 31

Figure 30: Climate Change Impacts on different Categories ............................................................... 32

Figure 31: Public Perception about Major Threats to Communities ................................................... 33

Figure 32: Vulnerability Index of Wards .............................................................................................. 38

List of Tables Table 1: Recorded Extreme Events in Birendranagar .......................................................................... 23

Table 2: Seasonal variation of different events in Birendranagar ....................................................... 25

Table 3: Comparison of cropping and harvesting of several major crops in Birendranagar ............... 26

1

Chapter 1

Introduction

Background

Climate Change has emerged as one of the high-flying challenges throughout the world in recent

decades. Climate Change has impacted all walks of life on the Earth. Climate change poses severe

threats to the countries like Nepal given the undulated terrain andgeographic setting; Surkhet is not

an exception, technological and budgetary constraints and least preparedness; poor communities

suffering the most. Nepal is a disaster-prone country, particularly to floods and landslides and will

be more prone and direly affected in the future. Nepal is ranked as the one of the most climate

vulnerable countries to the effects of climate change worldwide. Nepal is the 50th most vulnerable

country and the 58th least prepared country to cope with climate stressors (ND-GAIN index, 2013)

while it’s the top 20 most disaster prone countries in the world (DFID, 2011). Nepal is ranked as the

4th most vulnerable countries in terms of climate change impacts (IPCC, 2014). More variable

precipitation will have negative impacts on agriculture, particularly the majority of farmers who rely

on rain-fed farming. With an increase in the intensity of summer monsoon rains the risk of flood and

landslide has significantly increased in Birendranagar. Urban centers are of no excuse when it comes

to vulnerability and sustainability.

Nepal Government has endorsed National Adaptation Program of Action (NAPA), 2010, Climate

Change Policy, 2011 and Local Adaptation Plan of Action (LAPA), 2012to address the challenges and

impacts associated with climate change. All these documents have prioritized local adaptation to

strengthen the communities and minimize the loss and damage of climate change impacts.

Clean Energy Nepal (CEN) together with Oxfam in Nepal and Arboanut conducted vulnerability assessment in all the 16 wards of Birendranagar Municipality, Surlhet highlighting the need for vulnerable communities and municipalities to adapt with the climate change disasters. This study was conducted in two municipalities in the Mid-western region of Nepal, Nepalgunj Sub Metropolitan City (500km west of Kathmandu) in Banke district and Birendranagar Municipality (600km north-west of Kathmandu) in Surkhet district. Supported by the Nordic Development Fund (NDF), this study was facilitated by Bheri Environmental Excellence (Bee) Group; Banke and Environment Development Society (EDS), Surkhet in close coordination local municipalities. The assessment was conducted with reference to and as guided by the LAPA framework and revised as per the IPCC-AR 5. Under various climate change scenarios for Nepal, mean annual temperatures are projected to increase between 1.3-3.8°C by the 2060s and 1.8-5.8°C by the 2090s (INDC, 2016). Nepal Disaster Report, 2013 states that in the past 41 years (1971-2012), the most frequent disasters to hit Nepal are fire, flood, landslides and epidemics respectively. Floods had affected the largest number of families, followed by landslides and epidemics across Nepal. Epidemics had caused the highest number of fatalities, followed by landslides, floods and fire. In 2012, disaster events had damaged 3,559 houses totally or partially, 1,181 livestock were lost and 18% reduction in production of paddy compare to 2011 across Nepal. Total economic loss calculated to be NPR. 1.2 billion (Equivalent to USD 12 million) in 2012. NAPA, 2010 identified ‘urban settlement and infrastructure’ as one of the six priority sectors most

vulnerable to impacts of climate change. NAPA further elaborated climate change impacts in urban

settlements both directly and indirectly. Direct impacts are disastrous floods and reduction of

freshwater supplies. Indirect impacts could be experienced during extreme weather events when

food prices will increase and/or livelihood assets of vulnerable communities will be damaged.

Climate resilient urban settlements and infrastructure require improved and effective and pro-poor

structures of governance. Capacitated government authorities need to be responsive and

accountable towards the most vulnerable and needy population by ensuring these group’s

participation in decision making. NAPA has indentified two policy gaps;

a) reducing the exposure to impacts of climate change through adopting mitigation measures

and

b) Improving the adaptive and absorptive capacities of the vulnerable communities to enable

them to deal with shocks, stresses and uncertainties and thrive with

Key Terminologies

Adaptive capacity (in relation to climate change impacts): The ability of systems, institutions, humans, and other organisms to adjust to potential damage, to take advantage of opportunities, or to respond to consequences of climate change.

Climate trends: Climate trends are the patterns in climate variables such as temperature and precipitation observed in historic datasets.

Climate projection: A projection of the response of climate system to emissions or concentration scenarios of greenhouse gases and aerosols, or radiative forcing scenarios, often based upon simulations by climate models. Climate projections are distinguished from climate predictions in order to emphasize that climate projections depend upon the emission/ concentration/radiative forcing scenario used, and that these scenarios are subject to substantial uncertainty as they are based on assumptions concerning future socio-economic and technological developments and others that may or may not be realized. Climate extreme events:

Climate extreme is the eventoccurrence of a value of a weather or climate variable above (or below) a threshold value near the upper (or lower) end of the observed values of thevariable such as high temperatures (e.g., heat waves), or extremely heavy rainfall. Disaster: Severe alterations in the normal functioning of a community or a society dueto hazardous physical events interacting with vulnerable social conditions, leadingto widespread adverse human, material, economic, or environmental effects thatrequire immediate emergency response to satisfy critical human needs and that mayrequire external support for recovery. Exposure: The presence of people, livelihoods, species or ecosystems, environmental functions,services, and resources, infrastructure, or economic, social, or cultural assets in placesand settings that could be adversely affected.

Hazard: The potential occurrence of a natural or human-induced physical event or trend orphysical impact that may cause loss of life, injury, or other health impacts, as well asdamage and loss of property, infrastructure, livelihoods, service provision, ecosystems, andenvironmental resources. In this report, the term hazard usually refers to climate-relatedphysical events or trends or their physical impacts. Impacts: Effects on natural and human systems. In this report, the term impact is used primarily to refer to the effects on natural and human systems of extreme weather and climate events and of climate change. Impacts generally refer to effects on lives, livelihoods, health, ecosystems, economies, societies, cultures, services, and infrastructure due to the interaction between climate changes or hazardous climatic events occurring within a specific time period, and the vulnerability of an exposed society or system. Impacts are also referred to as consequences and outcomes. The impacts of climate change on geophysical systems, including floods, droughts, and sea level rise, are subset of impacts called physical impacts. Risk: The potential for consequences where something of value is at stake and where the outcome is uncertain, recognizing the diversity of values. Risk is often represented as theprobability of occurrence of hazardous events or trends multiplied by the impacts if theseevents or trends were to occur. Risk results from the interaction of vulnerability, exposure,and hazard. In this report, the term risk is used primarily to refer to the risk of climate-change impacts. Sensitivity: Predisposition of society andecosystems to suffer harm as a consequence of intrinsic and context conditions making itplausible that such systems once impacted willcollapse or experience major harm and damagedue to the influence of a hazard event. Threshold: A critical limit within the climatesystem that induces a non-linear response to a given forcing. Vulnerability: The propensity or predispositionto be adversely affected. Vulnerabilityencompasses a variety of concepts includingsensitivity or susceptibility to harm and lack ofcapacity to cope and adapt.

Source: (GoN, MOPE, 2017)

Purpose of the Study

The VA plays important role in preparing plans for formulation of local climate change action especially the adaptation plans. The policies should be in harmony with knowledge and available resources. The basis of which can be achieved through the assessment to collect basic information and one of such assessment is the vulnerability assessment. Many climate change adaptation efforts aim to address the implications or risks of potential changes in the frequency, intensity, and duration of weather and climate events that affect human and natural systems. VA identifies the basic climatic disasters pertinent in the area and the risks that they are exposed to and also identifies the local level adaptation skills. Besides, every community has their own way to manage and adapt to the extremities but most of them are being practiced without specific ideas on how it actually works, whether or not they are sustainable and if they will be useful and impactful at larger scale. The study targets to develop adaptation plan in two municipalities and leverage resources from

private sectors in financing adaptation actions.

The general objective of this study entitled “Building Resilience and Climate Adaptive Planning in

Urban Centers of Nepal” is urban centers of Nepal become people-centered and resilient to climate

extremes and disasters. The specific objectives of the VA are;

✓ To assess the vulnerabilities of different wards of the municipality

✓ To develop adaptation plans based on the findings of vulnerability study

✓ Empower the communities towards resilience future with appropriate technologies and

adaptation skills

Study Area

Though climate-induced hazards such as fire and epidemics are also prevalent, Surkhet district is

more vulnerable to floods, landslides and droughts. Birendranagar lies 600km North-West of

Kathmandu in Surkhet district. Birendranagar is the capital of Mid-western Development Region.

Birendranagar municipality is populated with 100458 in an area of about 245.06sq. km with

population density of 554.54persons/sq. km (Nepal Gazette, 2017).

Birendranagar is ecologically highly sensitive in respect to forest coverage and population density as

loss of Non Timber Forest Products (NTFP) species, drying of wetland, disruption in agro ecosystem

and spread of invasive species is prominent. Potential chances of landslide and mass displacement is

quite high in the municipality as it is situated in a very fragile geography. The flooding during mid of

August 2014 due to incessant rainfall resulted in massive landslides and flooding in 28 districts, of

which 4 districts namely Surket, Banke, Bardiya and Dang were the most severely affected. A total of

96 persons were reported dead, 32 injured and 115 remain listed as missing. In addition a total of

32,900 households (173,437 individuals) have been affected across Surkhet, Banke, Bardiya and

Dang, including 8,578 houses completely damaged and 24,322 houses partially damaged. In Surkhet

3,866 HHs in 27 VDCs and 1 Municipality were affected of which 1,427 HHs were fully damaged and

2,439 partially damaged. Birendraganar suffered from increased frequency of extreme weather

events such as landslides, floods and droughts resulting to the loss of human lives as well as high

social and economic costs.

District Administration Office (DAO), Surkhet has reported 566 HH totally damaged and 301 HH

partial damaged due to massive flood during 2014 where 7 people lost their lives and 1 reported

missing. In total, 4304 people were affected due to massive flood that destroyed road, bridge,

culvert and other infrastructures equaling up to NRs. 9,95,00,000. A set of 788 non food items and

NRs. 1, 66, 83,850 was distributed as relief in Birendranagar only.

Chapter 2

Literature Review

Climate change has been a global accord in recent past. Needless to say that Nepal is ranked as the

most climate vulnerable countries in the world. Climate change has already posed an additional

challenge to development, especially to the Least Developed Countries (LDCs), and country with

fragile geology like Nepal. The nation’s weather pattern is becoming unpredictable and there is an

urgent need to aware people about climate change and its impact in building climate

resilience.Climate change has been posing additional challenges to the country's socioeconomic

development (GoN, 2011). Serious efforts made to ensure climate change in general and adaptation

to climate change in particular plays an important role in the country’s development agenda. In the

same line Nepal’s Climate Change Policy (2011) sets out the goal to improve people’s livelihoods

through climate change impact mitigation and adaptation activities. The Goal 11 of the Sustainable

Development Goals (SDGs) which states “MAKE CITIES AND HUMAN SETTLEMENTS INCLUSIVE,

SAFE, RESILIENT AND SUSTAINABLE” has also prioritized the need for resilient cities.

NAPA, 2010 was formulated by the GoN to address the short term urgent and immediate impacts of

climate change basically focusing on adaptation needs. Similarly, LAPA was endorsed and

formulated in 2012 to address medium and long term impacts of climate change. GoN has initiated

National Climate Change Support Program (NCCSP) in 14 different districts of Nepal with support

from United Nation Development Program (UNDP). The project supports the existing policies and

initiation led by different sectors and has been designed in line with Local government agencies and

the private sectors and communities. It especially focuses on the most vulnerable sectors to develop

and implement adaptation plans to make cities more resilient to climate extremes and disasters.

The project is expected to achieve four key outputs which includes

i. imbibing climate adaptation and resilience to vulnerable urban centers

ii. developing adaptation friendly policy, practice and business

iii. equipping vulnerable urban dwellers with information, resources and appropriate

technology to respond to and recover climate extremes and disasters and

iv. Knowledge documentation and dissemination

The GoN has recognized climate change adaptation as fundamental to safeguarding climate vulnerable communities and ecosystems. The country has developed legal policy instruments, devised frameworks and strategies on planning and financing, and implemented a number of projects and programs to enhance the resilience ofpeople and their livelihoods. The GoN as a party to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) initiated the National Adaptation Plan (NAP) formulation process in September 2015. Ministry of Population and Environment (MoPE) has engaged seven thematic working groups (TWGs) and two Cross-cutting Working Groups (CWGs), which cover the major climate change sensitive sectors in the NAP formulation process. VRAhas been recognized globally as a critical stepin adaptation planning and implementation(IPCC 2014a). Another newelement is the recognition of evidence that theimpacts of climate change involve a numberof interacting factors, with climate changeadding new dimensions and complications. Theimplication is that understanding the impacts of climate change requires a very broad perspective as risk is not only determined by climate andweather events (hazards) but also by the exposureand vulnerability of the human and naturalsystems to these events (IPCC

2014a). In order to reduce risk effectively, it is essentialto understand how vulnerability is generated, howit increases, and how it builds up (O’Brien et al., 2004). Adaptive capacity is another important elementin most conceptual frameworks of vulnerabilityand risk. It refers to the ability of systems,institutions, humans, and other organisms toadjust to potential damage, to take advantageof opportunities, or to respond to consequences(IPCC 2014). The adaptive capacity of theindividual, communities, and the government alsomatters for reducing impact of climate change(Sharma and Patwardhan 2008).VRA is an important element in the NAP formulationprocess.

Chapter 3

Methodology and Study Design

The study was designed and performed as guided by the VRA report on Climate Change and

Vulnerability Assessment Framework. During the preliminary study design, the IPCC - AR 4 report

was also reviewed and was gradually updated as per the framework laid by the VRA using IPCC – AR

5 as a base. Several national and international documents were also reviewed for the design of the

study. The LAPA framework prepared by NCCSP for Devghat VDC of Tanahu district is one of such.

Most of the indicators defined in the framework and relevant ones have been assessed as far as

practicable in the study area.

Vulnerability Assessment Framework

Nepal’s NAP formulation process has proposed a framework for vulnerability and risk assessment (VRA) using IPCC-AR 5 as a base. The IPCC framework considers risk as a function of hazard, exposure and vulnerability. The framework assumes that the risk of climate related impacts results from the interaction of climate-related hazards (including hazardous events and trends) with the exposure and vulnerability of human and natural systems. Changes in the climate system (trends and scenarios), biophysical system, and socioeconomic processes (including governance and adaptation and mitigation actions) are drivers of hazards, exposure, and vulnerability.

Figure 1: Climate Change Vulnerability and Risk Assessment Framework

Source: VRA Framework and Indicators, GoN, 2017

Study Approach

The study approach followed a series of steps and procedures which is presented in the schematic

diagram below. The steps of the study approach are briefly described below.

Figure 2: Schematic Diagram of Study Design

1. Modular Training Series

Modular training series was conducted in Birendranagaron Climate Change Adaptation (CCA) and

mitigation and develop a general understanding of climate change impacts, mitigation and

adaptation to the selected mobilizers. One of the objectives was to capacitate the mobilizers and

enhance their knowledge base on climate change issues. The same mobilizers were then mobilized

for the data collection.

2. Vulnerability Assessment Framework Development

A framework was designed for the questionnaire survey through FGD. Several consultations with the

NAP expert team members and government officials were made before finalizing and agreeing the

VRA framework prepared.

Modular Training Series

VRA Framework Development

Orientation on VRA Framework

Focus Group Discussion (FGD)

Data Analysis & Projection

Data Verification/Validation

VRA Report and Adaptation Planning

3. Orientation on VRA Framework

VRA framework preparation was the followed by orientation on VRA framework to both local

government authorities and the mobilizers and all the variables, indicators and parameters were

defined. This stage also involved some exercises on conducting VRA as social survey through FGD.

4. Focus Group Discussion (FGD)

Focus Group Discussion was conducted at every wards of the municipality, to collect information

and assess the situation and vulnerability index of all wards in different aspects as far as practicable.

5. Data Analysis & Projection

After data collection, the data were entered and tabulated in Microsoft excel for required analysis

and synthesis. After the preliminary findings were drawn, the data and the findings were projected

and shared among the stakeholders for review, validation and verification. Very positive feedbacks

along with request for some additional verification were made by the municipality officials.

6. Data Verification/Validation

The projection was followed by validation and verification of data through comparison with

available references and consultation with the relevant stakeholders. To make sure not to miss the

new wards under the federal structure included, FGD was repeated in those wards which were

newly added or merged into the municipality.

7. VRA Report and Adaptation Planning

After going through all the steps above, VRA report was prepared which will be a foundation for

developing adaptation plans in the wards based on the vulnerability each wards are supposed to be

dealt with.

Vulnerability Tools and Indicators

Vulnerability Assessment survey was conducted in Birendranagar Municipality. The indicators of VA

such as crop calendar, seasonal calendar, major historical calamities were analyzed and significant

changes has been observed in the cropping and harvesting patterns which supports climate change

has altered the agricultural patterns. Also different wards have different level of vulnerability on

different fronts as forest ecosystem, agro-ecosystem and ethnicity. The tools for vulnerability

assessment such as exposure, sensitivity and adaptive capacity were assessed.

The average scoring for the indicators under different tools was derived based on the scoring range

of 1-4 (1=very low or no vulnerable, 2=moderately vulnerable, 3=highly vulnerable and 4=very highly

vulnerable). The indicators defined and evaluated under the tools were as guided by the VRA (GoN,

MOPE, 2017) Report. The major indicators are briefed hereunder.

a. Indicators for Hazards

The indicators under the hazard are climate extreme events such as heat and cold waves, cold and

dry days as well as climate induced hazards like drought, flood, inundation, hailstorm etc were also

assessed. Sector specific hazards included crop (land) inundation, temperature variation, disease

outbreak and seasonal shifting of cropping pattern.

b. Indicators for Exposure

These indicators were analyzed through the changes in seasonal calendar of current and 25-30 years

back. The crops, cropping and harvesting duration and time of the year were also studied under the

exposure. Impacts on agriculture, livestock, and major historical events were also the indicators

under this theme.

c. Indicators of Sensitivity

The sensitivity is inclination of society or livelihood aspects to suffer or harm as the consequence of

climate change impacts. Impacts of Climate Change in Forest Ecosystem, Agro Ecosystem, Livelihood

and, gender and marginalized groups and Vulnerable HH were assessed.

d. Indicators of Adaptive Capacity

The indicators defined and evaluated under the adaptive capacity included availability of natural

resources and access, trade and technology, economic empowerment, adaptation practice based on

agriculture, resource management, institutional arrangement and resource allocation, provision of

disaster risk reduction management plans (DRRMP)and budget, capacity building, climate resilient

buildings and development practices and the likes. Food security, income, poverty, market networks

and linkages, production and consumption, improved breed and seeds, climate resilient production

are some of the indicators under the study of adaptive capacity.

Chapter 4

Detail Vulnerability Assessment/ Data Analysis and Interpretation

The major objective of the detailed VA in the wards was to identify the climatic risks and the degree

of vulnerability. Also the assessment aimed at digging down the adaptation skills and practices being

practiced at the local level to combat the impacts of climate change. It was found that different

wards are exposed to different climatic threats and are adapting them differently. Though the

degree or the intensity of the disaster varies with wards, the adaptation practices are common in

general. The economical and social loss and damages associated with the climatic disasters are

higher in the wards which have observed frequent and high intensity events. Capacity is an

important element in most conceptual frameworks of vulnerability and risk. It refers to the positive

features of people’s characteristics that may reduce the risk posed by a certain hazard. Improving

capacity is often identified as the target of policies and projects; based on the notion that

strengthening capacity will eventually lead to reduced risk. Capacity clearly also matters for reducing

the impact of climate change.

The vulnerability associated with the impacts of climate change is known as climate change

vulnerability. Climate change has a wide range of impacts on different aspects of the environment

like biodiversity, agriculture ecosystem, forest ecosystem; ethnicity and livelihood that were

assessed during the VA.

a. Climate Change Trend and Scenario (Temperature and Precipitation)

Observing climate change scenarios and the trend of increasing temperature for over past 30 years

(based on local experience) there has been tremendous turnabout in weather pattern as well as

climatic conditions. Monsoon has almost 2 months of variation whereas the summer and winter has

change about 3 months. Though the annual average precipitation is almost identical, the number of

monsoon days has decreased significantly. This indicates high intense rainfall for a relatively short

period of time. This threatens flash flood and landslide along with several impacts on basic

livelihood resources. The details of seasonal changes and fluctuations are presented in the later

section.

Analysis of rainfall statistics over the past 30 years

Based on the available daily rainfall statistics for the period 1985-2015, yearly rainfall in

Birendranagar has been varying between 975 and 2114 mm per year and is on average 1354 mm.

The derived trendline indicates that the rainfall amount per year has decreased (Error! Reference

source not found.). The analyzed precipitation statistics show that heavy rains do occur regularly

(Error! Reference source not found.). Over the 31-year period, the most extreme reported rainfall

event has been 423 mm on 15.08.2014. The largest amount of rain falls during the monsoon season

(June-September), on average 1333 mm (Error! Reference source not found.). During the Pre-

Monsoon season (March-May) the average amount of rain is only 144 mm, while during the winter

period (November-February) the community receives on average 103 mm rainfall.

If we assume that the trend derived from the yearly rainfall amounts over the past 30 years is stable

(Error! Reference source not found.), the projection for the next 30 years would be a decrease in

annual rainfall by 112 mm. This value was compared to the simulation results projected with the

PRECIS high-resolution regional climate model (GoN 2014). The PRECIS model forecasts for

Birendranagar a decrease in annual rainfall of 50 to 100 mm by year 2040. The long-term projection

by the PRECIS model predict an increase in annual rainfall between 50 mm and 150 mm by year

2070 and between 250 mm and 300 mm by year 2098.

Figure 3: Trend in yearly amount of precipitation in Birendranagar, derived from daily measurement data. Days with missing data are not included in this analysis

Figure 4: Number of days with strong rainfall in Birendranagar, classified by amount of rain. Moderate rain >50-80 mm/day, Heavy rain >80-120 mm/day, Very heavy rain >120-200 mm/day, Extreme rain >200 mm/day. Days with

missing data are not included in this analysis

Figure 5: Amount of rainfall by season in Birendranagar municipality (Pre-Monsoon: Mar-May, Monsoon: Jun-Sep, Post-Monsoon: Oct, Winter: Nov-Feb). Days with missing data are not included in this analysis

Figure 6: Change in annual rainfall projected by the PRECIS climate model for the period 2011-2040 for Nepal (Source: GoN, 2014)



Analysis of temperature statistics over the past 30 years

The daily mean temperature was calculated from the daily maximum and minimum temperature

values provided by DHM for 1985-2015. Based on the recorded data, the average yearly

temperature has been 22.0°C in Birendranagar during the 31-year period. The monthly mean

temperature has increased by 0.03°C per year (Error! Reference source not found.). An even

stronger increasewas found for the monthly mean of the daily maximum temperatures in

Birendranagar, namely +0.07°C per year on average (Error! Reference source not found.), while the

mean of the daily minimum temperatures stayed about the same (Error! Reference source not

found.).

For the calculation of the monthly mean values, those months with more than 5 missing daily values

were replaced by the average for the same month from all the other years with sufficient data

coverage.

The highest and lowest recorded temperatures between 1985 and 2015 have been 42.8°C

(14.06.2012) and -0.7°C (09.01.2013), respectively.

Figure 9: Monthly mean temperatures and trend over 31 years in Birendranagar municipality

Figure 10: Monthly mean of daily maximum temperatures and trend in Birendranagar municipality

Figure 11: Monthly mean of daily minimum temperatures and trend in Birendranagar municipality

Two types of annual maximum temperatures were calculated and trends were derived. Firstly, the

annual mean maximum temperature was derived from seasonal averages: The daily maximum

temperatures were averaged for each season (winter, pre-monsoon, monsoon, post-monsoon) and

the seasonal means were averaged to get the annual value. This parameter shows an increase over

the past 30 years and the derived trend is +0.066 °C/year (Error! Reference source not found.). If we

assume this trend to be stable, the mean maximum temperatures will increase by 1.98 °Cover the

next 30 years. Secondly, an annual average of the highest maximum temperatures was derived from

the seasonal maxima: For each season, the highest measured temperature was extracted and the

seasonal maxima were then averaged to get the annual value. This parameter shows an increase

over the past 30 years with a trend of +0.065 °C/year (). If this trend is assumed to be stable, we can

expect an increase of the highest maximum temperatures by 1.95 °C over the coming 30 years.

Figure 12: Trend in annual mean maximum temperature, derived from seasonal averages of daily maximum temperatures

Figure 13: Trend in annual highest maximum temperatures, derived from seasonal maxima

In comparison, the PRECIS climate model (GoN 2014) projects an increase of the annual maximum

temperature between 1.0°C and 1.2°C until 2040 for Birendranagar area (Error! Reference source

not found.). The long-term projections by the PRECIS model predict an increase of the annual

maximum temperature between 2.3°C and 2.4°C by year 2070 and between 3.6°C to 3.8°C by year

2098 (Error! Reference source not found. and Error! Reference source not found.). However, it is

not clear from the GoN 2014 report how the annual minimum was derived, which means it is not

clear to which of the two parameters presented above it would compare best.

Figure 14: Change in annual maximum temperature projected by the PRECIS climate model for the period 2011-2040 for Nepal (Source: GoN, 2014)



Similarly, two types of annual minimum temperatures were calculated and trends were derived for

Birendranagar. Firstly, the annual mean minimum temperature was derived from seasonal averages:

The daily minimum temperatures were averaged for each season (winter, pre-monsoon, monsoon,

post-monsoon) and the seasonal means were averaged to get the annual value. This parameter

shows a very small decrease over the past 30 years and the derived trend is -0.003 °C/year (Error!

Reference source not found.). If we assume this trend to be stable, the mean minimum

temperatures will decrease by 0.09 °Cover the next 30 years. Secondly, an annual average of the

lowest minimum temperatures was derived from the seasonal minima: For each season, the lowest

measured temperature was extracted and the seasonal minima were then averaged to get the

annual value. This parameter also shows a decrease over the past 30 years with a trend of -

0.009°C/year (Error! Reference source not found.). If this trend is assumed to be stable, we can

expect a declineof the lowest minimum temperatures by 0.27 °C over the coming 30 years.

Figure 17: Trend in annual mean minimum temperature, derived from seasonal averages of daily minimum temperatures

Figure 18: Trend in annual lowest minimum temperatures, derived from seasonal minima

In comparison, the PRECIS climate model (GoN 2014) projects an increase of the annual minimum temperature between 1.3°C and 1.5°C until 2040 for Birendranagar area (

Figure 19: Change in annual minimum temperature projected by the PRECIS climate model for the period 2011-2040 for Nepal (Source: GoN, 2014)

). The long-term projections by the PRECIS model predict an increase of the annual minimum temperature between 2.9°C and 3.0°C by year 2070 and between 3.4°C to 3.6°C by year 2098 (


and


). However, it is not clear from the GoN 2014 report how the annual minimum was derived, which

means it is not clear to which of the two parameters presented above it would compare best.


b. Extreme Events

Year

Flo

od

an

d

Lan

dsl

ide

Dro

ugh

t

Rai

n w

ith

H

ails

ton

e

Win

dst

orm

Fire

Thu

nd

erst

or

m

Eart

hq

uak

e

2027/28 13 3 1

2031/32 2

2042/43 2 5 3

2044/45 1 1 1

2046/47 4 1 1 1

2048/49 3 1 1

2051/55 1 1 2

2058 6 1

2061 1 1

2066/67 3 1 1

2069/70 2

2071/72 23 1 10

2073 1

Total 48 5 10 11 5 10 10

Table 1: Recorded Extreme Events in Birendranagar

Major historical events dated back to B.S. 2027/28 were received from the survey. Flood and

landslide, wind storm, fire, thunderstorm and earthquake events are found markedly increased in

last 20 years while events of drought and rain with hailstone are not observed during the last 20

years period. There have been 48 flood and landslide events in last 46 years on which 26 events

occurred in last 20 years. Both the flood and landslide and windstorm occurrence are more frequent

since past 2 decades. In 2072, all the 23 wards were affected by massive flood. The flood and

landslide is observed almost every year in average. This might be the result of high intensity rainfall

in short time. Similarly, 11 events of windstorm were observed in 46 years where 10 events

occurred in last 15 years. This might have relation on longer drought which we found on seasonal

calendar as drought events promote (trigger) the fire events.

c. Hazards

Floods, landslides, windstorms, hailstorms, dry days and consecutive cold days, epidemic and

disease outbreak are some major indicators on VRA climate induced disasters. The study revealed

that drought, landslide, flood and fire are major hazards in the municipality. Intolerable

temperatures during hot summer days, drought and water scarcity, hazy and fogy winter days has

been troublesome for people in general.

d. Exposure

The presence of people, livelihoods, species or ecosystems, environmental functions, services, and

resources, infrastructure, or economic, social, or cultural assets in places and settings that could be

adversely affected is the exposure. The exposure is a measure of how closely the community suffers

or how intensely the climate change impacts are prevalent in that area. It is a relative measure of

people’s interaction and interdependence with the associated impacts. Seasonal calendar, Crop

calendar and major historical incidents/events were studied to assess the exposure.

e. Seasonal Calendar

Based on the seasonal calendar, changes in weather events are observed. Monsoon period has

markedly decreased from four and a half months to two and a half months. It has shifted from

Jestha to mid Ashad. The winter has been restricted for just three months that used to be almost

five months while the summer months have increased significantly. Changes are observed in storm

events hailstones occurrence. These changes in seasonal pattern and weather events shows the

climate change have already started to affect the Birendranagar municipality. We can conclude that

there have been significant changes in the seasonal weather pattern based on the seasonal

calendar.

Hazard

Situ

atio

ns

Bai

shak

Jest

ha

Ash

ar

Shra

wan

Bh

adra

Ash

oj

Kar

tik

Man

gsir

Po

ush

Mag

h

Falg

un

Ch

aitr

a

Rainfall Before

Winter

Now

Before

Summer

Now

Before

Storms

Now

Before

Hailstorms

Now

Before

Monson

Haze

Now

Cold

Waves

Table 2: Seasonal variation of different events in Birendranagar

f. Crop Calendar

Crops Month

Bai

sakh

Jest

ha

Ash

ar

Shra

wan

Bh

adra

Ash

win

Kar

tik

Man

gsir

Po

ush

Mag

h

Falg

un

Ch

aitr

a

Maize Previously

Present

Wheat Previously

Present

Mustard Previously

Present

Cereals Previously

Present

Rice Previously

Present

Vegetables Previously

Present

Soybean/Pea Previously

Present Soybean is No More Cultivated Potato Previously

Present

Table 3: Comparison of cropping and harvesting of several major crops in Birendranagar

Cropping time

Harvesting Time

Off Season farming started

No Cultivation Now

The crop calendar shows variations in cropping and harvesting pattern. The calendar is a comparison

of present and past (25-30 years). Wheat cropping has been decreased by two months while

harvesting pattern is almost identical due to the fluctuations in the seasonal patterns. The farmers

had no option to combat climate change and the changing weather pattern but are left with shifting

the cropping pattern as suited for the seeds they wants. With change in the weather and rainfall

pattern, there have been changes in wheat, mustard and rice cultivation. Especially rice used to be

planted during three months of Ashad, Shrawn and Bhadra and harvested during the two and a half

month from the end of Kartik to Poush. The cropping time has now shortened to just two month of

Aashad and Shrawn and harvesting towards the end of Mangsir to Poush. This shortened time of

cropping forced farmers to rely on short availability of monsoon rain and leaves the land

uncultivated forcing to food scarcity and poverty. Similarly, the alteration in cereals cropping is also

observed clearly. Rice and potato are harvested one month earlier than it were done and also

decreased the plantation period. Crop calendar clearly show the changes occurred in plantation and

harvesting time and period. These kinds of fluctuations and shortened cropping time might indicate

food insecurity and short supply.If reports are to be believed, every year, 100 hectares of land

becomes barren in Banke and Surkhet districts only.

From the above findings based on seasonal calendar, crop calendar and major historical incidents,

there have been significant changes in the seasonal calendar and crop calendar. This indicates they

are exposed to several threats. The number and intensity of events are unpredictable, that further

leads to more threats and least preparedness.

g. Sensitivity

It is evident that disasters like flood, landslides, fire, drought, thunderstorm, windstorm, and

hailstone have been repeatedly occurring. From B. S. 2027 to B.S. 2073, the events are being

uncertain making it difficult for preparedness. It has sometimes increased and decreased in some

years. From the findings based on seasonal calendar, crop calendar and major historical incidents,

there have been significant changes in the seasonal calendar and crop calendar. This indicates they

are exposed to several threats. The number and intensity of events are unpredictable, that further

leads to more threats and least time for preparedness.

h. Vulnerability Ranking of Households (HH)

Figure 22: Categorization of Very Highly Vulnerable HHs in Birendranagar Municipality

It was found that ward number 11 has the highest percentage of very highly vulnerable households

with 21.68% followed by ward 2 and 13 with 15.99% and 13.72% respectively. Ward 6 with 1.87% is

the ward with lowest number of very highly vulnerable households.

7.32%

15.99%

1.98%3.67%

9.61%

1.87%

10.95%

5.72%7.65%

3.52%

21.68%

7.35%

13.72%

6.16%

10.80%

5.25%

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

Very Highly Vulnerable HH Distribution

Figure 23: Categorization of Vulnerable HHs

The graph above shows that out of total households in Birendranagar municipality, only 6.75% HH

are very highly vulnerable whereas majority of the HHs are less vulnerable with the impacts of

climate change having a total share of 46.54%.

i. Impacts of Climate Change on Forest Ecosystem

Figure 24: Climate Change Impacts in Forest Ecosystem

To assess the vulnerability in forest ecosystem to climate change, impacts of 11 different hazards on

forest flora and fauna diversity, forest quality, forest management and forest ecosystem services

were considered. The hazards included; drought, storm, thundering, endemics, pests, invasive

species, wildlife attacks, intense rainfall, hailstone, fire and cold waves. The above graph shows that

ward number 14 and 12 are more vulnerable in terms of climate change impacts on forest resources

as compared with the overall wards as highly vulnerable wards. Other wards having score above 2

6.75%

11.60%

35.11%

46.54%

Very HighlyVulnerable HH

Highly VulnerableHH

ModeratelyVulnerable HH

Less/No Vulnerable

Categorization of Vulnerable HH

2.23

1.28

2.16

1.42

1.801.52

2.28

1.57

2.28

1.26

2.56

1.89

2.71

2.05

2.45

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

Average Score on Climate Change Impacts on Forest Ecosystem

includes ward numbers 1, 3, 8, 10, 15 and 16 with scoring of 2.23, 2.16, 2.28, 2.28, 2.05 and 2.45

respectively. Ward number 11 with score of 1.26 is the ward with lowest vulnerability score on

forest ecosystem.

j. Impacts of Climate Change on Agro Ecosystem

Figure 25: Climate Change Impacts on Agro Ecosystem

Agro ecosystem seems to have more medium impacts due to climate change as the graph shows

above. Ward 15 has the highest score of 2.84 out of 4. Similarly wards 12, 10 and 16 exhibit score of

2.70, 2.50 and 2.50 respectively. The hazards include; landslide, flood and inundation, drought,

invasive species, pests, torrential downpour, thundering and fire. First, the average value of each

hazardwas calculated. Ward 6 which has the lowest score of 1.28. This can signify that may people in

ward 6 are not directly involved in agricultural practices or ward 6 lies in the city center with less or

no agricultural practices. For the analysis of the vulnerability of Agro ecosystem, impacts of 8

different hazards on organisms, cropping pattern, production and change in agro ecosystem were

considered.

2.33 2.24 2.31

1.55

2.03

1.28

1.97 1.972.13

2.50

1.34

2.70

2.161.97

2.84

2.50

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

Average Score of Climate Chnage Impacts on Agro Ecosystem

k. Impacts of Climate Change on Livelihood

Figure 26: Ward wise scoring of Climate Change Impacts on Livelihood Aspects

In this study, five major resources were considered to map the resource vulnerability due to climate

change. The five resources included; (i) Natural resources (Land, water sources, forests, wildlife), (ii)

Economic resources (Agriculture, Animal Husbandry, Foreign Employment, Pension and Business),

(iii) Social resources (Aama samuha, Children club and youth club), (iv) Physical resources (Roads,

Community building, drinking water, Schools and irrigation) and (v) Human resources (teachers,

health assistant and students). First, the average impact value of each resourcewas calculated. Then,

the average value of the all five resources was taken to calculate a grand average. This grand

average was taken as a resource average vulnerability value for each ward.

From the above diagram, we found that all the wards are moderately vulnerable in terms of

resource vulnerability as the average score lies between 1 and 2. Wards 14, 15 and ward 11 with

score of 1.95, 1.91 and 1.82 respectively are the most vulnerable among the 16 wards of the

municipality.Different types of livelihood resources like natural resources, social, physical, economic

and human resources face different level of stresses and we tried to identify the aspects of natural,

social, economic, physical and human resources due to climate change impacts. It is clear that

different resources have different degree of vulnerability on different livelihood aspects which is

shown in the figure below.

1.591.75 1.76

1.45 1.48

1.14

1.551.73

1.63 1.661.82

1.60 1.62

1.95 1.911.81

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

Average Score of Climate Change Impacts on Livelihood Resources

Figure 27: Climate Change Impacts on Different Livelihood Resources

l. Impacts of Climate Change on Gender and Marginalized Group

Figure 28: Climate Change Impacts on Different wards based on Ethnicity

Climate change impacts all social and ethnic groups though the intensity might differ. To assess the

vulnerability of different ethnicity to climate induced hazards, impacts of 7 different climate induced

hazards on human resources, land, forest and biodiversity, water resources and infrastructures and

its consequences on children, youth adult, elderly people, female, male, poor, differently able and

marginalised community were considered.Seven different climate induced hazards include;

landslide, drought, invasive species, fire, disease and insects, hailstone and wind storm.

0.00

0.50

1.00

1.50

2.00

2.50

3.00

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

Natural Resources Economic Sources

Social Physical Sources

Human Resources

2.352.20

2.55

1.841.97

1.26

1.97

1.59

2.25 2.28

1.84

2.31 2.33 2.342.12

1.98

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

Climate Change Impacts on Gender and Marginalized Groups

Analyzing all these factors, ward 3 is highly vulnerable with score of 2.55 and followed by ward 1

with 2.35 respectively. It might be because of the different adaptation practices carried out by them

to reduce the impacts of climate change on different ethnicity and category. Another factormight

just be that those least vulnerable wards might have a less vulnerable group in comparison to the

wards which are highly vulnerable to climate-induced hazards in terms of different ethnicity and

category.

Figure 29: Climate Change Impacts on different Categories

Comparing the vulnerabilities of different categories, differently able, elderly and women are found

to be more vulnerable with average scores of 2.78, 2.74 and 2.48 respectively. Off the 16 wards of

the municipality, 12 wards claimed landslide as the major risk followed by drought and flood as 10

wards claimed such risks. This chart only shows the hazards having average score equals or greater

than 2.

Drought, torrential downpour, pests/insects and landslide, flood and landslide are some of the

major hazards directly or indirectly associated with climate change in Birendranagar. In the graph

wards scoring more than 2 vulnerability score are only presented. Out of 16 wards of the

municipality, 14 wards claimed that drought is very pertinent and a major hazard these days.

Likewise 13 wards claimed pests/insects and torrential downpour, 12 wards claimed drought and 8

wards claimed landslide as other hazards which makes their municipality highly vulnerable as shown

in the graph below.

1.78 1.78 1.83

2.742.48

1.70 1.741.87

1.74

2.78

1.701.87 1.83

1.95 1.91

Vulnerability Score of CCI on different Categories

Figure 30: Public Perception about Major Threats to Communities

m. Adaptive Capacity

Adaptation has emerged as an important area of research and assessment among climate change

scientists. Most scholarly work has identified resource constraints as being the most significant

determinants of adaptation.The different wards have different aspects of adaptive capacity and

different approaches to resist the climatic hazards in land, water resources, agriculture, forest

ecosystem, livelihoods. Major Practices which are common in different wards are summarized

below.

✓ Use of Pesticides which is not sustainable in long run

✓ Purchasing water from tanker, protection and awareness on natural spring protection

✓ Fire Line preparation to control forest fire

✓ Management of forest resources by community

✓ Green house farming, used of improved seeds, improved shed management for cattle, road

upgrading etc are being done from community level which are very successful in practice

✓ Youths and clubs are involved in awareness campaigns

✓ Drip irrigation, use of bio fertilizers as food preservatives, rain water harvesting, alternative

cropping and cross cropping practices are some notable examples to be considered

✓ Gabion wire and bio engineering in soil stabilization and waste water collection from taps

for irrigating backyard farming, bamboo plantation in river banks for flood control

The wards do not have any alternative adaptation practices and though they have, they are not

sustainable and most of them are not working. Such as removing the invasive species and insects by

manual collection, purchasing water through tanker for irrigation and using generator pumps,

temporary dam construction in river banks, and use of chemical fertilizers are only useful in

immediate effects.

The economic status of the families at the local level can be improved with opportunities for

community people through Women Empowerment Centers (WEC). WEC could be a regular income

8

1214

1113 13

24

Wards with Average Vulnerability Score equals or >2

generating source for many of the women in the locality itself. Financially strong communities will

be more robust and will be able to develop adaptation measures in their own context. The other

communities can also replicate the concept in new communities. The experiences from one WEC

can fit into some other communities empowering the whole ward to develop eco-entrepreneurship.

The WEC will be designed to practice climate adaptive, eco-friendly, low carbon products through

market based approach. The capacity of women engaged in such activities will be developed and

they can motivate, influence and encourage other vulnerable communities to follow the footsteps.

n. Vulnerability

Different wards are differently vulnerable with respect to different indicators defined. The VA

revealed several threats and challenges the communities are exposed along with the local level

remedial actions to cope with the climate induced disasters. The adaptive capacity of all the wards

are considered 1.25 (low adaptive capacity) based on the documented adoption practices which are

not significant, non-scientific and non sustainable to meet the needs and the intensity of the

impacts and the exposure they are having. This indicates a clear need to enhance the adaptive

capacity to desired levels.

Also the Exposure they are being facing to the climate change impacts is significantly high in some

seasons and less significant in some seasons. It applies the same in terms of major crops and

cropping pattern. There have been changes in rainfall pattern which has shortened by almost 2

months. The number of hot summer days has increased by more than 3 months. Though the

monsoon has shortened by 2 months, the annual rainfall is almost identical which implies the

rainfall is being more intense with high chances of flooding and landslide exerting extra threats to

livelihood. But some of the parameters show identical pattern. So, the overall exposure of the wards

has been considered at around 1.75.

o. Flood risk

A modelling approach was applied to analyse the flood risk related to extreme rainfall events for the

rivers and streams in Birendranagar municipality. The approach integrated a Digital Elevation Model,

high-resolution satellite imagery, topographic map data and field measurements on river width and

depth. As part of this analysis, the surface run-off for a heavy rainfall event was modelled.

Furthermore, the depths and cross-section areas of the existing stream channels were compared to

the required channel measures that would be necessary to accommodate all the run-off water from

such a storm event. The modelling results have shown that the river channels are in many places too

small to accommodate the run-off of an extreme rainfall event. Some results are presented in the

figures below. A separate technical report is available that describes the input data, modelling

method and all results in detail.

Figure 31. Mean run-off caused by a daily rainfall of 423 mm (reference case: 15.08.2014). For better visualization, the continuous values of the dataset were classified into 9 run-off classes.

Figure 32. Locations of field measurement plots and results of hydrological modelling. The labels indicate the Plot ID. Large red circles indicate locations where the measured mean depth of the channel is significantly smaller than the required (modelled) mean depth, for a reference storm event of 423mm rainfall per day, assuming a constant daily flow rate.

p. Adaptation Planning

Adaptation is the adjustment in the natural and human system to ease and cope with the changing climate. Climate change adaptation involves undertaking activities designed to reduce and minimize the harmful consequences of changing climate by ultimately reducing the green house gas

emission. Adaptation plan formation is a designed planning process to help municipalities make adaptation strategies, which is based on vulnerability assessments of the wards of the municipality and also a general assessment of potential economic, social and environmental impacts. The detailed adaptation plan is presented in Section 2 of this report.

Chapter 5

Conclusion and Recommendations

Climate change impacts everyone but the intensity of the impacts varies significantly among places,

persons, ethnicity, caste, groups, social strata, resources and economic status. The current pace of

urbanization is quickly outstripping government’s capacity to manage urban growth and is taking

place with little coordinated land use or spatial planning. As climate change impacts increase,

vulnerability continues to grow and the burden of poverty falls disproportionately high to some

sectors of society with deeply entrenched inequalities. This results in a proportion of extreme poor

people being more vulnerable to disasters, climate change, and economic shocks.

Different wards have different level of exposure to risks and vulnerability. Climate extreme events

such as drought, landslide, flood, and pests and insects has been threatening livelihoods of people

and especially marginalized communities. Differently able people, women, and elderly people are

more vulnerable to the impacts of climate change. Women face difficulty in collecting and

harvesting the day to day livelihood resources with the burden of added responsibility caused by the

outmigration of the men. Women are left with more family responsibilities as they have unequal

access over the resource use whereby in rural areas, women are responsible for collecting firewood

and fetching water. The drying up of springs, low resource availability has gendered implications as

well.

The indicators defined and assessed in the study shows little variations in overall vulnerability Index.

Several indicators were assessed based on vulnerability, sensitivity, exposure, hazards and adaptive

capacity. Impacts of climate change are not uniformly distributed; it even varies within a short

geographical location. So, specific attention should be given to every minute detail in accessing the

vulnerability indices. Drought and flood (intense rainfall) are prominent climate hazards that have

let several acres of land converts into natural deserts and uncultivated land every year. Due to

drought, productivity is in decline. Livelihood resources like natural, social and economic and human

resources have been impacted by climate change. Climate induced disaster has impacted almost

every resources in all the wards based on the findings.

Based on the overall study on adaptive capacity, resource availability and management, technology

and economy, the adaptive capacity of all the wards are considered 2.25 (moderate adaptive

capacity). This can be justified based on the documented adaptation practices, capacity need

assessment, VRA and site specific adaptation approaches, most of which are not significant in long

term but are practicable. Shifting of the cropping pattern, cross cultivation, use of improved seeds,

tunnel farming, rain water harvesting are some common adaptation measures being employed. This

indicates a clear need for uplifting the adaptive capacity to desire levels as these are not applicable

in larger scale. There are regional level offices, and almost every community is connected with

network and mass media which could be a source of information. Regional level radio station,

national daily newspaper, regional hospital, road access to almost every ward, availability of open

spaces in city core areas makes Birendranagar a bit more resilience.

Also the exposure they are being facing to the climate change impacts is significantly high in some

seasons and less significant in some seasons. It applies the same in terms of major crops and

cropping pattern. There have been changes in rainfall pattern which has shortened by almost 2

months. The number of hot summer days has increased by more than 3 months. Though the

monsoon has shortened by 2 months, the annual rainfall is almost identical which implies the

rainfall is being more intense with high chances of flooding and landslide exerting extra threats to

livelihood. But some of the parameters show identical pattern. So, the overall exposure of the wards

has been considered at around 1.50.

Figure 33: Vulnerability Index of Wards

From the graph, we can say that the vulnerability index of different all the wards of Birendranagar

municipality is less than 2. The overall score of the municipality is 1.2 which means the municipality

is moderately vulnerable to the impacts on climate change. Ward 12 is found to be the most

vulnerable among the 16 wards with Vulnerability Index of 1.42 followed by ward 15 (1.39) and

ward 14 and 16 (1.38 each). Though ward 11 comprises the highest fraction of highly vulnerable HH

with 21.68%, the overall vulnerability index is found to be 0.97. The basis for vulnerability ranking is

based as follows; Score 0-1 (low or no vulnerable), score 1-2 (moderately vulnerable), score 2-3

(highly vulnerable) and score 3-4 (very highly vulnerable).

The GIS modelling results have shown that the river channels are in many places too small to

accommodate the run-off of an extreme rainfall event. The results indicate where stream channels

could be widened or deepened in order to prevent harmful floods in the city. At locations where the

modelled (required) channel depth is significantly larger than the actual channel depth, flooding is

expected for strong rainfall events. For these locations it is worth considering the construction or

improvement of dikes along the river banks, plantation of trees or artificial enlargement of the river

bed. The existing channels should be cleaned, well maintained and possibly further excavated to be

able to accommodate all the water flow.

1.31

1.14

1.34

0.97

1.14

0.79

1.091.21 1.16

1.35

0.97

1.42

1.22

1.38 1.39 1.38

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

Overall Vulnerability Index

Recommendations

Some of the general recommendations based on the study are listed below.

✓ We highly recommend the municipality to prepare and adopt climate adaptive urban

planning in the days to come

✓ Site specific and ward specific adaptation plans should be prepared and formulated to

reduce the risk of climate change impacts

✓ Provision of Disaster Risk Reduction units should be allocated in every wards equipped with

sufficient materials

✓ The embankments should be properly designed to withstand the highest discharge recorded

✓ Awareness should be raised on climate change impacts and adaptations and should

encourage local residents to practice and promote climate adaptive and environment

friendly business

✓ Flood control measures are recommended where stream channels seem too narrow

✓ Direct flood control measures e.g. dykes along the river banks, plantations, artificial

enlargement of the river bed is recommended for the immediate measures to control

flooding

✓ Indirect flood control includes e.g. increasing the green areas inside and around the city,

stop logging of forests in the adjoining mountains is recommended in the long run.

✓ It is recommended to have dense vegetation, which can slow down the water in case of a

flood event, along the rivers on top of the banks

Section 2

Climate Change Adaptation Plan for Birendranagar Municipality

Municipal Adaptation Plan (MAP)

Adaptation to climate change is a process whereby individuals and communities seek to respond to

actual or expected climatic stimuli or their effects. National Adaptation Plans of Action (NAPA) have

been developed under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) for

Least Developed Countries (LDCs). However, to date there has not been a consolidated or

coordinated approach to adaptation to projected climate impacts on a municipal scale in Nepal. This

needs to be addressed urgently as it is at this level that many people are directly affected by climate

induced impacts and it is at this level that institutional solutions can be introduced that target wide

numbers of people. In recent years, reducing vulnerability to climate change has become an urgent

issue in low- and middle-income countries, and is at the forefront of any sustainable development

policy agenda.

Climate Change Adaptation (CCA) is also the adjustment in the natural and human system to ease and cope with the changing climate. Climate change adaptation involves undertaking activities designed to reduce and minimize the harmful consequences of changing climate by significant reduction of the green house gas emission. Adaptation to climate change includes any activity that reduces the negative impact of climate change while taking advantage of new opportunities that may be presented. This type of action differs from mitigation as adaptation aims to minimize the actual or expected effects of climate change while mitigation is action to reduce the sources of anthropogenic greenhouse gases. Adaptation plan formation is a designed planning process to help municipalities make adaptation strategies, which is based on vulnerability assessments of the wards of the municipality and also a general assessment of potential economic, social and environmental impacts.

1. Capacity Need Assessment

2. Assessment of Vulnerability to Climate Change Impacts

3. Develop Adaptation Options and Actions

4. Prioritize Adaptation Options

5. Identify the scale of Implementation and Estimated Cost

6. Municipal Adaptation Plan (MAP)

Figure 34: A Schematic Municipal Adaptation Plan (MAP) Process

Municipalities have an important role to play in both mitigating and adapting to changes in their

local environment. The climate will continue to change. Although reducing greenhouse gas

emissions is vital to limiting the rate and amount of change, it requires continuous and combined

efforts.

This adaptation plan has been prepared based on the findings of the vulnerability and risk

assessment (Section 1) of this report and with support and consultation from Nepal Climate Change

Support Program (NCCSP) under the Ministry of Population and Environment. NCCSP is working in

14 districts of Mid-Western to implement climate change adaptation and mitigation programs by

implementing Local Adaptation Plan of Action (LAPA).

Some text explaining overall vulnerability and impacts of climate change on different types of

livelihood here…….

1.31

1.14

1.34

0.97

1.14

0.79

1.091.21 1.16

1.35

0.97

1.42

1.22

1.38 1.39 1.38

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

Overall Vulnerability Index

0.00

0.50

1.00

1.50

2.00

2.50

3.00

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

Natural Resources Economic Sources

Social Physical Sources

Human Resources

Table 1 below summarizes several adaptation options pertinent to any specific kind of climatic

disasters being observed in Birendranagar Municipality for about last 3 decades. Based on the

significant impacts, available tools and technologies, resources and capacity of the wards under the

Municipality, it is advised to prioritize the adaptation options. The adaptation plans should also

includes information such as the range of adaptation need, the quantification and desired quality,

estimated cost of implementation and time of implementation plan with the responsible authority

for implementation.

Climate Change Adaptation Options/Actions

S.N Hazard Vulnerability Index

Impact Area Impacts Adaptation plan

1 Flood

Agriculture,

livestock and food security

Loss of arable land bio check dams , gabion

/concrete wall

Loss in productivity flood resistant variety of

rice/crop, insurance of crops, livestock

cultivation shift/ crop rotation for eg introduction of cash

crops, legumes, herbal plants like menthal, citonella

agro- forestry

Physical structures and

livelihoods

River bank cut

embankment and dikes construction, early warning

system, emergency preparedness training,

emergency relief material distribution

Inundation

elevated shelter house, elevated tap, elevated toilet, emergency/ Adaptation fund establishment, provision of

proper drainage system such as construction of culverts,

heum pipe

Water

Resource Contamination of

surface water

Source Conservation, Overhead Tanks, Use of disinfectants, awareness

Human health Epidemic Outbrust sanitation training, heygine kit

distribution

2 Landslide Agriculture Loss of arable land

terrace farming , tillage , plantation , plastic tunnel

farming, off seasonal vegetable farming trainings

and support,

livelihood/ Settlement

Human Casulties

construction of retaining walls, bio engineering practices, gabion wall

construction, improvement of degraded land

water source

watershed management practices, rain water

harvesting, plantation/source conservation/plantation

3 Drought

Agriculture,

livestock and food security

loss in productivity

drought resistant variety of crops, establishemnt of seed

bank, storage house, food cooperative, agriculture

collection centre

loss of pasture land plantation, construction of

water pond, introduction of new variety of grasses

Irrigation problem

construction/maintenance of irrigation canal, drip/sprinkle

irrigation system, plastic tunnel farming , off seasonal

croping system

forest Forest fire

construction of fireline, forest fire control tool kit

distribution, scientific formest management train ing to

CFUGs and locals

water source shrinken of water

sources

conservation of existing water sources such as pad locking, fencing in water source area,

watershed management practices, rain water

harvesting, plantation

4 Invasive Species

Agriculture loss in productivity

support in nursery mangement , training on use

of invasive species, establishment of gene bank,

Forest take over of native

species

plantation of native species, control fire in invasive species

dominant area

5 Pest

Agriculture /livestock

loss in productivity use of bio pesticides, Training

and support on Integrated Pest Management, soil test

livestock's weak immune system

livestock health campign, vaccination programme, manure improvisation training, cattle shed

management

6

Torrential Down power Agriculture

terrace farming, silvopasture cultivation such as fishery, swan , proper drainiange

system

physical

structures

proper drainage system, construction of flood resistant

structures,

7 Forest Fire

Agriculture/livestock/Livelihood/biodiversity/

air pollution

Loss of biodiversity, Habitat loss/forest

user groups and impacts on

livelihood/loss of agricultural productivity

Preparation of fire lines, awareness activities to control

forest fire, fire brigade with trained human resources and

water collection ponds

8 Hailstones/Windstorms/Thu

nderstorm Life and property

loss of life and property

Provision of emergency relief and rescue/ first aid, relief

fund, insurance of cattle and crops

1

Table 1.Ward Level Plan prepared by consulting with communities are as follows:

W

ar

d

No

Hazard Vulenrabil

ity Index

Impact Area Impacts Adaptation plan Priority Options Implementi

ng

Place(Area

of Focus)

Estimtat

ed

Dimensi

on

(Quantif

y)

Estimat

ed

Amoun

t

Time

Frame

(Year

of

comple

tion)

Responsible Body

1 Flood Agriculture, livestock and food security

Loss of arable land

bio check dams , gabion /concrete wall

gabion /concrete wall, Aapdali, Aapkholi and Solighopta Khola

Total 1500 m

1 crore

2 year

Department of Water Induced Disaster Management, District land conservation office

Loss in productivity

flood resistant variety of rice/crop, insurance of crops, livestock

insurance of crops, Side of those Stream

- - - Agriculture office

cultivation shift/ crop rotation for eg introduction of cash crops, legumes, herbal plants like menthal, citonella

Physical structures and

livelihoods

River bank cut

embankment and dikes construction, early warning system, emergency preparedness training, emergency relief material distribution

embankment and dikes construction, preparedness training, emergency relief material distribution

Aapdali, Aapkholi and Solighopta Khola

Total 800m

50 lakhs

2 year Department of Water Induced Disaster Management, District land conservation office

Inundation elevated shelter house, elevated tap, elevated toilet, emergency/ Adaptation fund establishment, provision of proper drainage system such as construction of culverts, heum pipe

Adaptation fund establishment, provision of proper drainage system such as construction of culverts,


5 lakhs adoption fund and 30 lakhs for proper drainage system

2 year Municipality office

Water Resource

Contamination of surface water

Source Conservation, Overhead Tanks, Use of disinfectants, awareness

Source Conservation, Overhead Tanks

Kaareghari Intanks

500 Liter capacity tank

4.5 Lakhs

2 year Jhupra Khanepani Office and Department of Water Induced Disaster Management

Human health Epidemic Outbrust

sanitation training, heygine kit distribution

sanitation training, heygine kit distribution in monsoon

8 houses of Aapkholi Khola

District health office and municipality office

Landslide

Agriculture Loss of arable land

terrace farming , tillage , plantation , plastic tunnel farming, off seasonal vegetable farming trainings and support,

… No risk of landslide

……. …… ….. …..

livelihood/ Settlement

Human Casulties

construction of retaining walls, bio engineering practices, gabion wall construction, improvement of degraded land

…. No risk of landslide

… …. .. …

water source watershed management practices, rain water harvesting, plantation/source conservation/plantation

Plantation and gabion wall

Kaareghari Intanks

500 Liter capacity tank

5 lakhs 2 year Jhupra Khanepani Office and Department of Water Induced Disaster Management

Drought Agriculture, livestock and food security


drought resistant variety of crops, establishemnt of seed bank, storage house, food cooperative, agriculture collection centre

drought resistant variety of crops, establishemnt of seed bank,

Dharapani side

5lakhs 3 year Agriculture office

loss of pasture land

plantation, construction of water pond, introduction of new variety of grasses

introduction of new variety of grasses

whole tole

2 lakhs 2 year District agriculture office, forest office, land conservation office

Irrigation problem

construction/maintenance of irrigation canal, drip/sprinkle irrigation system, plastic tunnel farming , off seasonal croping system

plastic tunnel farming , off seasonal croping system

wellspring of Aapkholi khola

1 km 15 lakhs

2 year Department of Water Induced Disaster Management

forest Forest fire construction of fireline, forest fire control tool kit distribution, scientific formest management train ing to CFUGs and locals

constuction of fireline, forest fire control tool kit distrubation

Krishna Community Forest, Tripreshour

1 km 1 lakhs 2 year District forest office

commumity forest

water source shrinken of water sources

conservation of existing water sources such as pad locking, fencing in water source area, watershed management practices, rain water harvesting, plantation

rain water harvesting, plantation

Plantation in Krishna Community Forest, Tripreshour commumity forest

10000 plant

20 thousad

2 year District forest office

Invasive Species

Agriculture loss in productivity

support in nursery mangement , training on use of invasive species, establishment of gene bank,

Support in nursery management, support of advanced species plant and seed

whole ward

…. 1 lakhs 2 year District Agriculture office

Forest take over of native species

plantation of native species, control fire in invasive species dominant area

Pest Agriculture /livestock


use of bio pesticides, Training and support on Integrated Pest Management, soil test

soil test, use of bio pesticides

agriculture area of ward no. 2

10 Lakhs

5 Year District Agriculture office

livestock's weak immune system

livestock health campign, vaccination programme, manure improvisation training, cattle shed management

Torrential Downpower

Agriculture terrace farming, silvopasture cultivation such as fishery, swan , proper drainiange system

…. … …. … .. ..

physical structures

proper drainage system, construction of flood resistant structures,

proper drainage system


1200 m 1 crore

2 year District Forest office, Land conservation office

Forest Fire

Agriculture/livestock/Livelihood/biodiversity/air pollution

Loss of biodiversity, Habitat loss/forest user groups and impacts on livelihood/loss of agricultural productivity

Preparation of fire lines, awareness activities to control forest fire, fire brigade with trained human resources and water collection ponds

Preparation of fire lines, awareness activities to control forest fire, fire brigade with trained human resources and water collection ponds

Krishna Community Forest, Triproshour commumity forest

522.50 hector, 95 hector

5 lakhs 5 year District Forest office, Land conservation office

Hailstones/Windstorms/Thunderstorm

Life and property

loss of life and property

Provision of emergency relief and rescue/ first aid, relief fund, insurance of cattle and crops

….. ….. …. …. …. …

- Need additional ward information herein to be complete the table

References Vulnerability and Risk Assessment (VRA) Framework and Indicators for National Adaptation Plan (NAP) Formulation Process in Nepal; Government of Nepal,

Ministry of Population and Environment, May, 2017

Climate Change Local Adaptation Plan of Action; Devghat VDC, Tanahu, Nepal, 2015

General Introduction to National Adaptation Plan Formulation Process in Nepal; Government of Nepal, Ministry of Population and Environment, 2017

Synthesis of Stocktaking Report for National Adaptation Plan (NAP) Formulation Process in Nepal; GoN, 2017 Nepal Gazette, 2017, GoN

Annex

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