climate change: too late for 2 °c? stocker . climate and environmental physics . physics institute,...
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Thomas Stocker Climate and Environmental Physics Physics Institute, University of Bern Switzerland
ICEST 2014, Beijing
Climate Change: Too late for 2°C?
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1990 1995
2001
2007
2013
IPCC Assessment Reports since 1990: WGI Contribution
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Key SPM Messages
19 Headlines on less than 2 Pages
3
14 Chapters & Atlas
1,100,000 Words
Summary for Policymakers
14,000 Words
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4
Observations
Understanding
Future
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Warming of the climate system is unequivocal
IPC
C 2
013,
Fig
. SPM
.1b
Temperature Difference 1901 to 2012 based on trend (°C)
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Over the period 1901 to 2010, global mean sea level rose by 190 mm.
IPC
C 2
013,
Fig
. SPM
.3d
Glo
bal m
ean
sea
leve
l (m
m)
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( mod
ified
from
Pet
ers
et a
l., 2
013,
Glo
bal C
arbo
n Pr
ojec
t)
2013 9.9±0.5 Bill tons C per year
+61% since Rio '92
CO
2 Em
issi
ons
(Bill
tons
C /
yr)
CO2 emissions by human activity are unprecedented
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Understanding Causes of the observed changes
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atmosphere, land, ocean
extreme events
water cycle
global mean sea level
Human influence on the climate system is clear.
sea ice, glaciers, ice sheets
Cause Worldwide Effects
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Future Projections of many future climates
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IPC
C 2
013,
Fig
. SPM
.7a
Global mean surface temperature change from 1986-2005
Continued emissions will cause further warming and changes in all components of the climate system.
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IPC
C 2
013,
Fig
. SPM
.8a
Continued emissions will cause further warming and changes in all components of the climate system.
Change in average surface temperature (1986-2005 to 2081-2100)
RCP8.5
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The contrast in precipitation between wet and dry regions and between wet and dry seasons will increase, [...]
Change in average precipitation (1986-2005 to 2081-2100)
RCP8.5
IPC
C 2
013,
Fig
. SPM
.8b
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RCP 2.6 (annual) RCP 8.5 (annual)
IPCC 2013: Atlas of Global and Regional Climate Projections
Regional Changes in Eastern Asia (2081-2100)
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IPC
C 2
013,
TFE
.2, F
ig. 2
+19 cm
+98 cm
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Warming of 0.8 to 2.5°C
1000 billion tons of carbon
Any climate target implies a limited carbon budget
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IPC
C 2
013,
Fig
. SPM
.10
790 Bill. t C
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Budget for 2°C target: 790 bill t C CO2 emissions until 2013: −535 bill t C
CO2 emissions in 2013: 9.9 bill t C
Remaining emissions: 255 bill t C
Limiting climate change will require substantial and sustained reductions of greenhouse gas emissions.
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IPC
C 2
013,
Fig
. SPM
.8
Today we have a choice.
4.5°C world 2°C world
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www.climatechange2013.org