climate change, the paris accord and refrigeration …...expert group projections for doee – ozone...

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Climate Change, the Paris Accord and Refrigeration Michael McCann – Expert Group, Energyallstars.com

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Page 1: Climate Change, the Paris Accord and Refrigeration …...Expert Group Projections for DoEE – Ozone and SGG Management Team HFC refrigerant demand by species in Mt CO 2 e Expert Group

Climate Change, the Paris Accord and RefrigerationMichael McCann – Expert Group, Energyallstars.com

Page 2: Climate Change, the Paris Accord and Refrigeration …...Expert Group Projections for DoEE – Ozone and SGG Management Team HFC refrigerant demand by species in Mt CO 2 e Expert Group

2017 to 2030 Spells Growth and Pressure for Pursuit of Excellence

• Value and volumes of Australian perishable food production, consumption and export on a rocket – total farm production >$58 billion in 2016 all time high.

• New investment into agriculture and horticulture at all time highs, most aimed at export markets. Export Growth.

• New retail chains expanding in Australia building new stores while the incumbents go from strength to strength in an economy with 1.5% annual population growth and following 25 years of continuous economic expansion and looking at >4% GDP growth in the coming 12 months.

• Australia has committed under the Paris Accord to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 28% below 2005 levels by 2030.

Page 3: Climate Change, the Paris Accord and Refrigeration …...Expert Group Projections for DoEE – Ozone and SGG Management Team HFC refrigerant demand by species in Mt CO 2 e Expert Group

Trajectory of Australian emissions projected by DOE 2016

http://www.environment.gov.au/climate-change/publications/emissions-projections-2016

Page 4: Climate Change, the Paris Accord and Refrigeration …...Expert Group Projections for DoEE – Ozone and SGG Management Team HFC refrigerant demand by species in Mt CO 2 e Expert Group

Reaching Australia’s commitment to the Paris Accord

2017 553 Mt CO2-e

2030 Paris Accord –28% from 2005 = 441 Mt CO2-e

BAU Projection = 592 Mt CO2-e 2030

Page 5: Climate Change, the Paris Accord and Refrigeration …...Expert Group Projections for DoEE – Ozone and SGG Management Team HFC refrigerant demand by species in Mt CO 2 e Expert Group

Where is it all coming from?Emissions (Mt CO2-e) 1990 2005 2017 2030

Electricity 130 197 190 ?

Direct Combustion 66 82 101 ?

Transport 61 82 96 ?

Fugitive 36 37 45 ?

Agriculture 80 76 69 ?

Industrial Processes 26 32 35 ?

Waste 20 14 11 ?

LULUCF 129 76 7 ?

To Achieve 2030 Target - 154 - 112

548 595 553 441

All RAC equipment responsible for minimum of 22% of Electricity related emissions (~42Mt CO2-e) and 36% of Industrial Processes (~13 Mt CO2-e –DOE numbers) or around 55Mt CO2-e total – at least 10% of all national emissions. Reduction from 2017 to 2030 required is ~20%

Page 6: Climate Change, the Paris Accord and Refrigeration …...Expert Group Projections for DoEE – Ozone and SGG Management Team HFC refrigerant demand by species in Mt CO 2 e Expert Group

Industrial Processes Emissions Projections

DoEE National Inventory Team Dec. 2016 Projections

2016 12.3 Mt CO2-e

2030 15.4 Mt CO2-e

Page 7: Climate Change, the Paris Accord and Refrigeration …...Expert Group Projections for DoEE – Ozone and SGG Management Team HFC refrigerant demand by species in Mt CO 2 e Expert Group

The Bank of working gas Mt CO2-e

Peak Bank! In terms of the total GWP of the working bank of gas (including rump of HCFCs) - About Now!

Page 8: Climate Change, the Paris Accord and Refrigeration …...Expert Group Projections for DoEE – Ozone and SGG Management Team HFC refrigerant demand by species in Mt CO 2 e Expert Group

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

70,000

Re

frig

era

nt

ban

k

Tho

usa

nd

s

GWP <10

GWP <1000

GWP <2150

HFC-Mix

HFC-32

HFC-407C

HFC-410A

HFC-404A

HFC-134a

HCFC-Mix

HCFC-22

The Bank of working gas Metric Tonnes

While energy services delivered continue to increase strongly and the stock of equipment and bank requiring maintenance grows

Page 9: Climate Change, the Paris Accord and Refrigeration …...Expert Group Projections for DoEE – Ozone and SGG Management Team HFC refrigerant demand by species in Mt CO 2 e Expert Group

Expert Group Projections for DoEE –Ozone and SGG Management Team

HFC refrigerant demand by species in Mt CO2e

Expert Group April 2016 HFC refrigerant demand from 2003 to 2030 by gas species Mt CO2e.

0.0

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

10.0

12.0

2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023 2025 2027 2029

GWP<10

GWP<1000

GWP<2150

HFC-Mix

HFC-32

HFC-407C

HFC-410A

HFC-404A

HFC-134a

2016 6.5 Mt CO2-e –5.8 lower than NIT

2030 3.5 Mt CO2-e –11.9 lower than NIT

Even after including an additional 1.5 Mt CO2-e EOL emissions pa from all equipment classes the HVAC&R industry rapid shift to lower GWP gases still looks like delivering >11Mt CO2e abatement pa by 2030 (~10% of total abatement required from 2017 starting point)

Page 10: Climate Change, the Paris Accord and Refrigeration …...Expert Group Projections for DoEE – Ozone and SGG Management Team HFC refrigerant demand by species in Mt CO 2 e Expert Group

Electricity Production and Emissions Projections

Unforeseen and rapid decarbonization of electricity supplies are underway combined with softening electricity demand as higher efficiency equipment and appliances become commonplace so a lower outcome in this segment is highly probable

Potential for as much as 50Mt CO2-e gain in lower carbon electricity generation and continuous improvement in energy efficiency of distribution and end use equipment and appliances

2009 = 212Mt CO2-e –possibly all time high?

Page 11: Climate Change, the Paris Accord and Refrigeration …...Expert Group Projections for DoEE – Ozone and SGG Management Team HFC refrigerant demand by species in Mt CO 2 e Expert Group

The Bad News

December 2015 projections above by the National Centre for Climate Change Adaptation Research Facility compared to Summer 2016-17 below.2016-2017 Adelaide - Record Days above >400CDays above 350C Brisbane - Hottest Summer on Record

Canberra 18 - Hottest Summer on Record Daytime TempsMelbournePerth - 8 days >400C new recordSydney 11 – 58 nights >200C – Hottest Summer on

RecordREQUIREMENT FOR HIGHLY EFFICIENCT HVAC&R WILL GROW STRONGLY

Page 12: Climate Change, the Paris Accord and Refrigeration …...Expert Group Projections for DoEE – Ozone and SGG Management Team HFC refrigerant demand by species in Mt CO 2 e Expert Group

Category - Stationary GWh/yr Energy spend ($ Million) 28%

Refrig. cabinets 2,172.2 $391.0 $109.48

Refrig. beverage vending machines 625.4 $112.6 $31.52Ice makers 408.7 $73.6 $20.60Walk-in coolrooms: small 1,146.9 $206.4 $57.80Walk-in coolrooms: medium 624.4 $112.4 $31.47Walk-in coolrooms: large 1,175.7 $211.6 $59.25Beverage cooling (post mix) 196.3 $35.3 $9.89Beverage cooling (beer) 248.8 $44.8 $12.54Water dispensers 17.1 $3.1 $0.86Packaged liquid chillers 3,122.8 $562.1 $157.39Milk vat refrig. 289.5 $52.1 $14.59Portable refrigerators 23.4 $4.2 $1.18Supermarket refrig: small 833.5 $150.0 $42.01Supermarket refrig: medium 1,193.1 $214.7 $60.13Supermarket refrig: large 533.2 $96.0 $26.87Hospital kitchens 47.6 $8.6 $2.40Cold storage and distribution 666.1 $119.9 $33.57Process chilling 1,332.2 $239.8 $67.15TOTAL GWh and $$ Million 14,657 $2,638

28% 4,104 $738.71 MillionMt CO2-e 3.837 @$0.18c/kWh

Contribution to 2030 Abatement Target 3.43%

Refrigeration 2030 Efficiency Task

Page 13: Climate Change, the Paris Accord and Refrigeration …...Expert Group Projections for DoEE – Ozone and SGG Management Team HFC refrigerant demand by species in Mt CO 2 e Expert Group

Refrigeration Efficiency Opportunities

Installation TypeNumber of each Type GWh/yr

Energy Saving

Energy spend ($ Million)

Energy Cost

Saving

Supermarket refrigeration: small 2,048 833.5 233.4 $150.0 $42.01

Supermarket refrigeration: medium

985 1,193.1 334.1 $214.7 $60.13

Supermarket refrigeration: large 333 533.2 149.3 $96.0 $26.87

Hospitals and large kitchens 120 47.6 13.3 $8.6 $2.40

Total Facilities* 3,486 2,607.4 730.1 $469.3 $131.41

*Note: 2013 Facility count

Page 14: Climate Change, the Paris Accord and Refrigeration …...Expert Group Projections for DoEE – Ozone and SGG Management Team HFC refrigerant demand by species in Mt CO 2 e Expert Group

Refrigeration Efficiency Opportunities

CoolroomsUnits GWh/yr

Energy Saving

Energy spend ($ Million)

Energy Cost

Saving

Walk-in coolrooms: small 65,700 1,146.9 321.1 $206.4 $57.80

Walk-in coolrooms: medium 20,200 624.4 174.8 $112.4 $31.47

Walk-in coolrooms: large 12,200 1,175.7 329.2 $211.6 $59.25

Total Coolrooms* 98,100 2,947.0 825.1 $530.5 $148.53

*Note: 2013 Facility count

Page 15: Climate Change, the Paris Accord and Refrigeration …...Expert Group Projections for DoEE – Ozone and SGG Management Team HFC refrigerant demand by species in Mt CO 2 e Expert Group

Refrigeration Efficiency Opportunities

Unitary and Self Contained Equipment

Units GWh/yrEnergy Saving

Energy spend ($ Million)

Energy Cost

Saving

Refrigeration cabinets 447,000 2,172.2 608.2 $391.0 $109.48

Packaged liquid chillers 10,000 3,122.8 874.4 $562.1 $157.39

Milk vat refrigeration 6,800 289.5 81.0 $52.1 $14.59

Beverage vending machines 134,000 625.4 175.1 $112.6 $31.52

Ice makers 66,000 408.7 114.4 $73.6 $20.60

Beverage cooling (post mix) 37,000 196.3 55.0 $35.3 $9.89

Beverage cooling (beer) 12,200 248.8 69.7 $44.8 $12.54

Water dispensers (incl. bottle) 235,000 17.1 4.8 $3.1 $0.86

Total 948,000 7,080.8 1,982.6 $1,274.5 $356.87

Page 16: Climate Change, the Paris Accord and Refrigeration …...Expert Group Projections for DoEE – Ozone and SGG Management Team HFC refrigerant demand by species in Mt CO 2 e Expert Group

Expert Group Position • The refrigeration industry has a central role to play in reducing energy

related greenhouse emissions and a singular responsibility for reducing direct emissions of SGGs.

• Australia has to improve the preparedness, resilience and security of agriculture and of this national piece of infrastructure - the cold-food-chain - while delivering increased agricultural output and exports.

• Refrigeration should be understood by the public and politicians as the infrastructure of agriculture, an essential service central to the health and well being of the Australian community and with a vital role to play in the economic life of the nation.

• Significant cold food chain assets should be seeking, as far as possible, energy independence from transmission and distribution grids, at the very least achieve a viable back up capacity equal to several days full operation independent from the grid.

• The 21st century opportunity for the refrigeration industry is to become an effective part of the energy industry, capturing ongoing energy cost savings, and managing peak demand, while achieving significant increases in handling increasingly valuable agricultural products.

Page 17: Climate Change, the Paris Accord and Refrigeration …...Expert Group Projections for DoEE – Ozone and SGG Management Team HFC refrigerant demand by species in Mt CO 2 e Expert Group
Page 18: Climate Change, the Paris Accord and Refrigeration …...Expert Group Projections for DoEE – Ozone and SGG Management Team HFC refrigerant demand by species in Mt CO 2 e Expert Group

T.C.O. – the critical metric

Page 19: Climate Change, the Paris Accord and Refrigeration …...Expert Group Projections for DoEE – Ozone and SGG Management Team HFC refrigerant demand by species in Mt CO 2 e Expert Group