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Upstream forcing of the Gulf of Maineecosystem

Andrew J. Pershing

University of Maine School of Marine Sciences

Gulf of Maine Research Institute

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Climate Change

losses from the ice sheets of Greenland and Antarctica have very likelycontributed to sea level rise over 1993 to 2003

Changes in precipitation and evaporation over the oceans are suggested byfreshening of mid and high latitude waters together with increased salinity inlow latitude waters.

2000195019001850

Future Precipitation Change

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Climate Change in North Atlantic

1990s freshening likely due to changes in Arctic

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4

1990 20001980 1990 20001980

1990 20001980 1990 20001980

1990 20001980 1990 20001980

SalinityPhytoplankton

CalanusSm. Copepods

Right Whale CalvesHerring

PhytoplanktonFreshwater

Impact of Freshwater on Gulf of Maine

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5

1990 20001980 1990 20001980

1990 20001980 1990 20001980

1990 20001980 1990 20001980

SalinityPhytoplankton

CalanusSm. Copepods

Right Whale CalvesHerring

PhytoplanktonFreshwater

Impact of Freshwater on Gulf of Maine

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6

1990 20001980 1990 20001980

1990 20001980 1990 20001980

1990 20001980 1990 20001980

SalinityPhytoplankton

CalanusSm. Copepods

Right Whale CalvesHerring

PhytoplanktonFreshwater

Impact of Freshwater on Gulf of Maine

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1990 20001980 1990 20001980

1990 20001980 1990 20001980

1990 20001980 1990 20001980

SalinityPhytoplankton

CalanusSm. Copepods

Right Whale CalvesHerring

PhytoplanktonFreshwater

Impact of Freshwater on Gulf of Maine

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1990 20001980 1990 20001980

1990 20001980 1990 20001980

1990 20001980 1990 20001980

SalinityPhytoplankton

CalanusSm. Copepods

Right Whale CalvesHerring

PhytoplanktonFreshwater

Impact of Freshwater on Gulf of Maine

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1990 20001980 1990 20001980

1990 20001980 1990 20001980

1990 20001980 1990 20001980

SalinityPhytoplankton

CalanusSm. Copepods

Right Whale CalvesHerring

PhytoplanktonFreshwater

Impact of Freshwater on Gulf of Maine

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1990 20001980 1990 20001980

1990 20001980 1990 20001980

1990 20001980 1990 20001980

SalinityPhytoplankton

CalanusSm. Copepods

Right Whale CalvesHerring

PhytoplanktonFreshwater

Impact of Freshwater on Gulf of Maine

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Some thoughts

Historical approach is useful for identifying patterns, but Limited by the length of time of our sampling

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Mmm, clams

Quahogs have growth rings Width of rings==growth

Growth in W. GoM is correlated with Calanus

From Wanamaker

et al. (submitted)

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Mmm, clams

Clams make great fossils (and chowders)!

Is this a proxy Calanus record?

Do changes in clam growth correspond to changes inclimate/fisheries?

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Some thoughts

Historical approach is useful for identifying patterns, but Limited by the length of time of our sampling

Need to understand process--why are the species connected?

Requires focused study

Dynamical vs. empirical models