climate change resilience planning at the department of
TRANSCRIPT
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Climate Change Resilience
Planning at the Department of
Energy’s Savannah River Site
David Werth
Savannah River National Laboratory
Alexis Johnson
University of Florida
Carolinas Climate Resilience Conference
September 13th, 2016
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Savannah River Site (SRS)• Savannah River National
Laboratory
• Tritium Extraction Facility
• Mixed OXide (MOX) fuel facility (under construction)
• US Forest Service
• Savannah River Ecological Laboratory
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Executive Order 13693 (2015)
Charges each agency with
• “identifying…projected impacts of
climate change”
• “calculating the potential cost”.
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Executive Order 13693 (2015)
Charges each agency with
• “identifying…projected impacts of
climate change”
• “calculating the potential cost”.
How do we comply with this order?
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Q #1: How has climate changed
at SRS?
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‘A warm peak occurred during the 1930s and 1940s followed by a cool period in the 1960s and 1970s.’
‘Temperatures increased again from 1970 to the present by an average of 2⁰F.’
Adapted from: Regional Climate Trends and Scenarios for the U.S. National Climate Assessment: Part 2. Climate of the Southeast U.S. NOAA Technical Report 142-2
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Observed Climate Change at SRS (Weinbeck, 2016)
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Q #2: How will climate change at SRS in the future?
Multiple global climate model (GCM) simulations of the years 2040-2049
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Q #2: How will climate change at SRS in the future?
GCM Organization Number of Realizations
CCSM4 National Center Atmospheric Research
3
Can-ESM2 Environment Canada 4
GISS-E2-H Goddard Inst. For Space Studies (NASA)
4
MPI-ESM-LR Max Planck Inst. 3
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Daily Maximum Temperature, 2040-2049
= Statistically Significant
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Q #3: How will site operations be affected by
climate change?
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Vulnerability Assessment Scoring Tool (VAST)
• Developed by U.S. Dept. of Transportation• Part of U. S. Climate Resilience Toolkit• Excel-based• Accepts user inputs, assigns ‘scores’, and outputs estimates of asset vulnerability
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Vulnerability1. Exposure 2. Sensitivity3. Adaptive Capacity
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Buildings
Assets
773-A
H-Canyon
Select ‘Asset Types’ and ‘Assets’
Asset Types
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Temperature
1. Exposure Indicators
Cooling Degree Days (annual) [CDD]
Heating Degree Days (annual) [HDD]
Stressors Select ‘Stressors’ and ‘Exposure Indicators’
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Parameter Score
CDD 4
HDD 1
Exposure ScoresAverage Annual Number of CDD
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2. ‘Sensitivity’ score
Buildings
Asset Types
Annual Power Use
(Mwh)
Asset Name Value Score
SRNL 773-A 11264.0 2
SRNL 735-A 2427.0 1
H Canyon 221-H 34096.0 4
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3. Adaptive Capacity score
Buildings
Asset Types
Cost of High Efficiency
System
Asset Name Value Score
SRNL 773-A Chill 4
H Canyon 221-H HVAC 1
HVAC Facility serviced by HVAC unitChill Facility serviced by Chilled Water facility
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= Site buildings = Site forest
= Outdoor workers= Site ponds/lakes
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Future Work
•Report results to Dept. of Energy
•Work with site managers to develop a plan to maintain siteoperations under conditions of climate change