climate change predictions in sub-saharan africa: impacts ...climafrica newsletter no. 1 - september...

ClimAfrica Newsletter No. 1 - September 2011 1

1. ClimAfrica - THE PROJECT

ClimAfrica is an international project co-funded by the European Union under the 7th Framework Programme. The project duration is 4 years (01/10/2010 - 30/9/2014). Total budget: 4.6 M€; EU contribution 3.5 M€.

1.1 Africa and climate change Africa is probably the most vulnerable continent to climate change and variability, because of the combination of its low adaptive capacity with particular eco-climatic and socio-economic conditions. Nevertheless it remains one of the regions less covered by climate change studies. African population mostly depends on the rural sector, which relies in turn on rainfall patterns: any negative effect of climate on the water cycle and agriculture production will significantly threaten its livelihood and economy. Climate predictions and adaptation to climate change in Africa are often limited by the use of models and strategies developed out of the African context and covering a time frame not adequate to take effective actions in time.

1.2 ClimAfrica Objectives ClimAfrica’s main objective is to better understand and predict climate change in SSA for the next 10-20 years, analysing the expected impacts on

Editorial

Dear Reader,

it is with great pleasure that we present ClimAfrica, a research project co-funded by the European Union under the 7th

Framework Programme. The project is conceived to respond to the urgent need for the most appropriate and up-to-date tools and information to better understand and predict climate change in Sub-Saharan Africa, assess its impacts and develop relevant adaptation strategies.Most of the current climate scenarios have not been developed for the African context and consider long-term trends, while African decision makers often would need timely and shorter term information to react in time to climate change impacts.Therefore ClimAfrica aims at i) improving climate change predictions in the underrepresented region of Sub-Saharan Africa for the next 10-20 years, considering also the seasonal variations, ii) analysing the expected impacts on water and agriculture, considering the socio-economic implications, and iii) proposing adaptation strategies tailored to the African context.To reach this objective a consortium of 18 organizations from 14 different countries, well balanced between Africa and Europe, has been set up. The African partnership will play a key role in carrying out local case studies and adapting the predicting models to the local context. Moreover the presence of an international organization like FAO will ensure the linkage between research and operation.Hard work is expecting us, but we will do our best to reach the project objectives and contribute with valuable results to the fight to global change. We are grateful to all the people who made possible the start of this project, starting from the European Commission, and we will welcome any suggestions and any request for collaboration we will receive in the next three years and more.

4-Monthly NewsLetter No. 1: September 2011

Editorial . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .1ClimAfrica - The project . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1 - Africa and climate change . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .1

- ClimAfrica objectives . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1 - Project consortium . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .2 - Workplan . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2 - Expected results . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5

CONTENTS

Climate change predictions in

Sub-Saharan Africa: impacts and adaptations

Project meetings . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .5 - ClimAfrica Modelling Workshop . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .5

- ClimAfrica Case studies Workshop . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .5 ClimAfrica Case studies . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6 Next meetings . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8Contacts . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8

Good luck to everyone!

Antonio Bombelli (Project Manager) and Riccardo Valentini (Project

Coordinator)


ecosystems and population and developing adaptation strategies tailored to the African context.

Specific objectives are: 1- Develop improved climate predictions for SSA on seasonal to decadal scale;2- Assess climate impacts in key sectors of SSA livelihood and economy, like water resources and agriculture;3- Evaluate the vulnerability of ecosystems and civil population to inter-annual variations and decadal trends in climate;4- Suggest and analyse new adaptation strategies suited to SSA;5- Develop a new concept of medium term monitoring and forecasting warning system for food security, risk management and civil protection;6- Analyse the economic impacts of climate change on agriculture and water resources in SSA and the cost-effectiveness of potential adaptation measures.

1.3 Project Consortium

The ClimAfrica consortium comprises 18 institutions, 9 from Europe, 8 from Africa, and the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO).

African countries directly involved are: Burkina Faso, Congo, Ghana, Kenya, Malawi, South Africa, Sudan and Togo.

1.3.1 The partnership

1- Centro Euro-Mediterraneo per i Cambiamenti Climatici, CMCC, Italy2- Lunds Universitet, Sweden3- Commissariat à l’Énergie Atomique, CEA, France4- Max Planck Gesellschaft zur Foerderung der Wissenschaften, MPG, Germany5- Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam, Netherlands6- Centre Tecnològic Forestal de Catalunya, CTFC, Spain7- Potsdam Institut für Klimafolgenforschung, PIK, Germany8- Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement, CIRAD, France9- Food and Agriculture Organisation of the United Nations, FAO, Italy10- Stichting Onderzoek Wereldvoedselvoorziening van de Vrije Universiteit, SOW, Netherlands11- Centre de recherches sur la durabilité et la productivité des plantations industrielles, CRDPI, Congo12- University of Cape Town, UCT, South Africa13- University of Malawi, Malawi14- Université de Lomé, Togo15- Agricultural Research Corporation, ARC, Sudan

16- IGAD Centre for Climate Prediction and Application, ICPAC, Kenya17- Council for Scientific and Industrial Research, Crops Research Institute, CSIR-CRI, Ghana18- Centre d’Étude de Recherche et de Production en Information pour l’Environnement et le Développement Durable, CERPINEDD, Burkina Faso

1.4 Work Plan

The work plan is organized in a multi-disciplinary integrated research approach through the division of main tasks in the following eight complementary work-packages (WP):

WP1: Past climate variabilityWP2: Modeling seasonal to decadal climate predictionsWP3: Climate impactsWP4: Medium-term warning system, vulnerability, adaptationWP5: Socio-economic implicationsWP6: Case studies in AfricaWP7: Project ManagementWP8: Dissemination

WP1: Past climate variability

WP1 aims to provide consolidated data to other WPs in ClimAfrica, and to analyse the interactions between climate variability, water availability and ecosystem productivity of Sub-Saharan Africa. Various data streams that diagnose the variability of the climate, in particular the water cycle, and the productivity of ecosystems in the past decades, will be collected, analysed and synthesized. The data streams range from ground based observations and satellite remote sensing to model simulations.

Figure 1. Graphical representation of the work-packages and their main interrelationships.

WP2

Climate predictability and forecasts

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WP2: Modeling seasonal to decadal climate predictions

WP2 will focus on SSA climate predictability and on the improvement of climate prediction models byvirtue of developments in their land surface initialization/representation. The improvement of the prediction of climate over SSA is considered from the perspective of both the large-global scale (i.e.: global coupled climate dynamics modeling) and the small-local scale (i.e.: mesoscale and statistical modeling/downscaling). Simulations are performed by means of a global climate model initialized with the best observational products of ocean, land and atmosphere. Outputs provided:∼ Surface temperature∼ Precipitation∼ Heat fluxes∼ Winds, etc.

WP3: Climate impacts

WP3 aims at quantifying the sensitivity of vegetation productivity and water resources to seasonal, interannual and decadal variability in weather and climate, using impact models on agriculture and water.

Current models in combination with recently developed datasets of land use and climate (from WP2) will be used to simulate crop yield and water resources.Simulations using short-term scenarios of future climate change (5-10 years) will be used to identify regional differences in the climate sensitivity of crop production etc.

Scenarios for the African agricultural/pastoral sectors will also be made using longer model runs. Finally there will be the identification of tradeoffs and areas of risk and vulnerability related to:a) water related hazardsb) agricultural and pastoral performancec) soil degradation.

WP4: Medium-term warning system, vulnerability, adaptation

First objective of this WP is to establish a monitoring and forecasting warning system (based on ClimAfrica data) that produces prospective analyses about food insecurity and water crisis for the next 10 years. This will fill the gap between seasonal scale predictions and long-term impact scenarios, and identify the future Areas of Concerns (AoCs) and likely hotspots of vulnerabilities and food insecurity Second objective is to integrate and harmonize ClimAfrica data with existing data and information to be used as inputs to develop improved vulnerability assessment and optimal adaptation options. Other important aspect is related to proposed framework for Natural Resources and Food Security – Systems at Risk (NaF-SAR). The aim of NaF-SAR

Figure 2. Recent trends in the water cycle of Africa (Jung et al., 2010).

Figure 3. Seasonal retrospective forecast for 22 years (1989-2010). Four six-month-forecasts per year, start dates 1st Feb, 1st May, 1st Aug, 1st Nov.

Figure 4. Decadal predictions. Twenty-year-simulations, start dates 1990-1995-2000-2005-2010, November 1st .

Figure 5. Crop model flowchart.


is to integrate and harmonize ClimAfrica data with existing data and information to be used as inputs to develop improved vulnerability assessment and optimal adaptation options. A Risk framework is proposed to be used in the context of ClimAfrica to provide a strategic context for the data and tools generated.

The framework consists of 4 key stages: 1- Physiographic data related to hazard or environmental pressure; 2- Socio-economic data (people) 3- Risk assessment hot spotting based on (1) & (2) and the development of scenarios 4- Decision support

WP5: Socio-economic implications

WP5 will deal with economic assessment of agriculture and water sector based on a Computable General Equilibrium analysis (ICES) to produce the “inaction” and the adaptation scenarios, for direct climate change impacts on agricultural activity and on the direct cost and effectiveness of adaptation strategies. The main advantage of this investigation approach is to depict the economy as a system where

goods and factor markets interacts domestically and internationally. Price effects, competitiveness effects, demand and supply adjustments triggered by impacts on the agricultural sector can thus be properly captured. Moreover, the spatially explicit and dynamic economic modeling of vulnerability will have to accommodate bio-physical vulnerabilities.

WP6: Case studies in Africa

In combination with the other WPs that will provide scenarios of climate changes and possible adaptation strategies, WP6 will respond to the multiple interests of stakeholders, especially those in local communities whose livelihood activities are directly driven by climate, linked to agricultural production and water management. The case studies and the measurements included in WP6 will cover a set of needs by: a) providing data for empirical model development; b) studying some particular processes that may have a strong influence on the local adaptation strategies, c) supplying parameters for mechanistic models; d) offering actual scenarios for model application and testing. Thus, a strong connection between WP6 and all other WPs will be needed.

WP7: Project Management

Project implementation will be followed day to day by the project coordination office in collaboration with all the partners in order to constantly evaluate the progresses and take the needed actions. The needed events for a successful project implementation and dissemination, like meetings, conferences,

Figure 6. The 4 stages of the proposed framework (by Craig Hutton).

Climate Change Impacts: Summary

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Agriculture EnergyDemand

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Figure 7. Climate change impacts by category and region, (Bosello et al.2009).

Figure 8. Training on field data collection for the local case studies(by Elisa Grieco).


workshops, etc. will be organized in close collaboration with WP8.

WP8: Dissemination

The objectives of this WP are to raise awareness and increase the visibility of ClimAfrica, maximizing the effectiveness of outreach, and to ensure the real accessibility and use of the project outputs beyond the project community and the project lifetime and taking into account of the highest number of relevant African stakeholders.

1.5 Expected RESULTS

1) Improved climate predictions over Sub-Saharan Africa;2) Evaluation of climate impacts on water resources and agriculture;3) New adaptation strategies suited to local needs;4) Assessment of economic implications of climate change impacts and adaptation;5) An operational medium term monitoring and forecasting warning system.

2. PROJECT MEETINGS

2.1 ClimAfrica Modelling Workshop, Jena (Germany) 14–15 February 2011

On February 2011 in Jena, Germany, a project internal workshop was held to develop a modeling protocol towards data definitions. Processing and state of the art modeling approaches to meet ClimAfrica aims have been defined.

The primary objective of the ClimAfrica modeling experiments is to examine the impact of recent past/present day, and near future to 21st century climate and CO2 concentrations on key ecosystem services like crop yields, and terrestrial carbon and water balances. Their changes in response to climate variability and other factors will be examined with ecosystem models and landsurface schemes of different complexity.

The objective of the first ClimAFRICA model simulations is to provide the baseline simulations for seasonal and interannual variability and associated climate sensitivity of ecosystem-atmosphere CO2 and water exchange, crop yields, water balance and river runoff/discharge. This data set will represent the present-day status of our knowledge about carbon and water cycles as implemented in the participating

models. It will help to identify areas and conditions with large uncertainties and can serve as a reference for various follow-up modeling work. This will be especially relevant as the improved seasonal and decadal climate forecasts are becoming available.

The data will also serve as an initial input to the work on linking socio-economic and ecological analyses as proposed for the early warning systems.The workshop was attended by 17 participants from 7 countries.

2.2 ClimAfrica Case Studies Workshop, Dakar (Senegal) 6–15 June 2011

The ClimAfrica Workshop on the case studies was held in the University of Cheikh Anta Diop of Dakar (Senegal) between 6th to 15th June 2011. The primary objective of the workshop was to bring all WP 6 participants together in order to 1) practically explain and discuss the sampling procedures and case studies methodologies proposed in the field data collection document which was sent to all WP 6 participants on April 15th 2011, 2) homogenize criteria among various groups and 3) discuss about

Figure 9. A moment of the modeling workshop (by Fabio Eboli).

Figure 10. A break during the field training in Senegal (by Xavier de Lamo).


the formation, harmonization and compilation of future common databases. The workshop also offered the opportunity to talk about the potential ways of implementation of the NaF-SAR workflow. The workshop was attended by 21 participants from 9 different countries.

3. ClimAfrica CASE STUDIESThe heart of ClimAfrica project are the case studies. The case study areas will be in fact used as actual scenarios for model validation and testing. Field data will be collected in 8 different Sub-Saharan African countries (Ghana, Burkina Faso, Togo, Malawi, Republic of Congo, Sudan, Kenya, Ethiopia) fairly representative of the eco-climatic and socioeconomic conditions in Africa. A common database will be developed to include information about the biotic, abiotic, management and socio-economic conditions of the study area. The studies carried out in these regions will provide field data to other work packages for empirical model development and mechanistic model parametrization. In addition, the synergies developed with the existing actors (managers and policy-makers, NGO’s, local farmer’s organizations, women’s associations, etc.) during these studies will allow to test and validate both the individual model outputs and the Medium Term Warning System in these regions.

Ghana

The ClimAfrica-Ghana site is part of the Ankasa forest reserve, which has a carbon flux tower constructed by CarboAfrica, a project funded by the European Commission under the 6th framework programmes. The location presents a large forest reserve for comparison and a good reference point

for evaluating carbon stock because of undisturbed forest.The area falls within the Jomoro district of the Western Region in Ghana with most of the population

having migrated out of the communities because of poor soils for cultivation. It is a tropical rainforest

experiencing a bimodal rainfall regime. High rainfall extremes are the main climatic risk. Communities around this area crop arable crops and tree crops. Poor road accessibility to the northern part of the Ankasa forest reserve would restrict socio-economic impact assessment to communities close to the southern part of the river Ankasa.

Togo

Togodo reserve covers a total area of 25 500 ha and is one of the priority protected area in Togo. From 2005, the reserve of Togodo North (10,500 ha) is classified as gazetted forest and Togodo South (15,000 ha) became a National Park. These classifications bring a fundamental protection to the ecosystems, forest resources safeguard, water management, carbon storage and climate stabilization. Located close to Lomé, the capital town, this site represents also a good opportunity with ecotourism. By selecting Togodo reserve, ClimAfrica project will permit to evaluate the vulnerability of ecosystems and civil population to inter-annual

Figure 11. On route to a settlement near Ankasa forest reserve, Ghana (by Regina Sagoe).

ANKASA


variations and longer trends in climate, to analyse suited adaptation strategies, to develop new concept of monitoring and forecasting warning system, useful for food security, risk management and civil protection in Togodo area. ClimAfrica project will also contribute to collect useful data for Togodo reserve fauna management.

Burkina Faso

ClimAfrica site in Burkina Faso is the micro-watershed of Sanmatenga. It is mostly covered by rain fed agriculture (millet and sorghum) and grass/shrub (agro-pastoral) land. It is included between the tropical shrub land and dry forest zones.

The main land uses in the area are: savannah, cropland, grazing area, forest, shallows. The main risks are linked to droughts, wind speed, pest invasion, land degradation, overgrazing and bushfires.

SudanCovering an area of 1331 km sq, Al-Gadamblia site is located in the Central Northern-West of Al-Gedaref State in Sudan.

This low rainfall woodland savannah has a semi arid climate. Rainfed agriculture is the only farming practiced and the most important crops are sorghum and sesame.

This is vast dry rainfed agriculture has food security and socio-economical importance to the country population. There are two problems facing this production system which are high climate variability and land degradation.

Malawi

Lake Chilwa is a tropical lake without an out late and is located in southern Malawi. Water level in the lake is at an altitude of about 627 m above sea level. The wetland is characterised by Afromontain grassland (typha and phragmites swamps) and deciduous savanna intermixed with annual crops in the plains.Wetland ecosystem comprising the lake, which is shallow and characterised by slightly saline core with an outer freshwater ring. The whole wetland

Figure 12. Vegetation map of the Togodo Reserve (Togo).

Figure 13. Green sorghum head and soil drying, in Northern part of Gedaref State, Sudan (by Imad-eldin Ali Babiker).

CHILWA


(lake and wetland) is 2,400 km2 where one-third is open water, one –third is swamp and the last one-third is floodplains.

Republic of Congo

The site is close to the village of Tchizalamou. It is located 72 km abroad the town of Pointe-Noire in the region of Kouilou, south of Congo. The area is characterized by poor and low biodiversity savannah with more than 80% of one sort of grass (Loudetia

simplex = Poaceae) and a very sandy soil. From 2006 it has been measured CO2 and H2O fluxes to establish the stocks of Carbon on savannah. In 2012 it has been followed the same parameters on Eucalyptus plantation from the beginning of the growth.In the ClimAfrica project, the CRDPI’s role is to identify the afforestation impact on the water resources, comparing the eucalyptus plantation ecosystem with the savannah ecosystem, which is the primitive one in this area. Following H2O fluxes and measuring isotopic analysis of water, we will be able to identify, characterize and quantify the plants water uses (rain / groundwater) and releases.

Ethiopia, Kenya and Tanzania

The selection of the Ethiopian, Kenyan and Tanzanian sites is still under investigation.

4. NEXT MEETINGSClimAfrica representatives will participate at the First Climate Change and Development for Africa (CCDAI) Conference, the major theme of the conference is Development “First: Addressing Climate Change in Africa”. Addis Ababa, 17 -19 October, 2011. http://www.uneca.org/acpc

ClimAfrica should participate with a side event on Climate Services for Africa during the 35th session of the UNFCCC SBSTA, Durban, 28 November – 9December 2011.

ClimAfrica first annual meeting:Proposed data: 18 _19 January 2012.Proposed location: Ghana.More info in the next newsletter.

AcknowledgementsThe ClimAfrica NewsLetter N.1 has been prepared by Sandrine Gerboin, Anne-Julie Rochette, Elisa Grieco and Antonio Bombelli, with the support of the FAO team and the contribution of all ClimAfrica people.

Contacts

www.climafrica.net Further information: Antonio Bombelli (Project Manager) [email protected], and Elisa Grieco ([email protected]).

ClimAfrica is an international project funded by the European Commission under the 7th Framework Programme and coordinated by Prof. Riccardo Valentini, Centro Euro-Mediterraneo per i Cambiamenti Climatici (ITALY).

Météo tower CO2 / H2O flux

towerSolar panels

Figure 14. Lake Chilwa wetland floodplains (Malawi) which are used for Agriculture (by Wilfred Kadewa).

Figure 15. Tchizalamou site in Congo (by Gael Sola).

climate change predictions in sub-saharan africa: impacts ...climafrica newsletter no. 1 - september...

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