Climate Change: observations, projections,

and impacts

Michael CaseResearch ScientistWWF Adaptation Centre

The Greenhouse Effect

Solar radiation passes through the clear atmosphere

Some solar radiation is reflected by the

Earth and the atmosphere

Some of the infrared radiation Some of the infrared radiation passes through the atmosphere, passes through the atmosphere, and some is absorbed and and some is absorbed and re-emitted in all re-emitted in all directions by directions by greenhouse gas greenhouse gas molecules. The molecules. The effect of this effect of this is to warm is to warm the Earth’s the Earth’s surface and surface and the lower the lower atmosphere.atmosphere.

Glacial-Interglacial Ice Core Data

Time (thousands of years before present)

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©IPCC 2007: WG1-AR4

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Observed Climate Change – Temperature

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Observed Climate Change – Precipitation

©IPCC 2007: WG1-AR4

Increases in rainfall in south-east Brazil, Paraguay, Uruguay, the Argentinean Pampas and some parts of Bolivia have had impacts on land use and crop yields, and have increased flood frequency and intensity.

Major droughts in 2004 and 2005

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Sea-Level Rise

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Projected Climate Change - Temperature

©IPCC 2007: WG1-AR4

2020-2029 2090-2099

Continental Surface Temperature Anomalies:

Observations and Projections

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©IPCC 2007: WG1-AR4

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Projected Climate Change – Precipitation

©IPCC 2007: WG1-AR4

Increase in temperature extremes

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Climate impacts on ecosystems

12©IPCC 2007: WG1-AR4

% change in annual runoff by 2014-60

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Increases of up to 50% in streamflow in the rivers Uruguay, Paraná and Paraguay (Bidegain et al., 2005; Camilloni, 2005b) – IPCC 2007

©IPCC 2007: WG1-AR4

Climate change impacts on freshwater

14©IPCC 2007: WG1-AR4

Spread of Malaria, Dengue

Impacts to Agriculture

Impacts to Forests and Natural Areas

Impacts to Water Resources

Impacts to Coastal Areas

Impacts to Biodiversity

Key Climate Change Impacts

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