1 |

Climate change, nutrition and

Health:

Protecting the most vulnerable

Diarmid Campbell-Lendrum,

Team Leader, Climate Change and Health,

Public Health and Environment Department

2 |

Undernutrition: The unfinished health business

of the 20th Century

Undernutrition kills approximately 1.4 million people each year, Data from IHME, WHO. Figures from WHO/WMO, Atlas of Health and Climate

3 |

Undernutrition burdens decreasing globally:

still further to go

Undernutrition kills approximately 3.5 million people each year, Data from IHME, WHO. Figures from WHO/WMO, Atlas of Health and Climate

Lim et al, Lancet 2012

4 |

Climate change and degradation of ecosystem

services place food production at risk

Without effective responses, climate change will compromise:

Water quality and quantity: Contributing to a doubling of people living in water-stressed basins by 2050.

Food security: In some African countries, yields from rain-fed agriculture may halve by 2020.

Estimates from IPCC, 2007.

5 |

Health impacts are unfairly distributed

Cumulative emissions of

greenhouse gases, to 2002

WHO estimates of per

capita mortality from

climate change, 2000

Map projections from

Patz et al, 2007; WHO, 2009.

6 |

0

50

100

150

200

250

1990 1994 1998 2002 2006 2010

Food Price Index

Cereals Price Index

Slide from Colin Butler, ANU: Original data: FAO

Environmental and socioeconomic factors

combine to undermine health

7 |

The urgent need: Poverty alleviation, nutrition

programmes & emergency response for malnutrition

Examples of programmes with WHO support:

- Scaling Up Nutrition.

- Strengthening health action in nutritional emergencies.

- New programme on climate information, nutrition and health in Africa, (with WMO, WFP, IFRC).

Figures from

WHO/WMO, Atlas of

Health and Climate

8 |

Poor diet and unhealthy lifestyles:

the emerging threat of the 21st Century

– Dietary risk factors and physical inactivity cause 12.5 million deaths per year.

– High body-mass index alone is associated with 3.4 million deaths/year

– 80% of obesity burden falls on low and middle- income countries

Data from IHME, Lancet, 2012.

9 |

How will we provide sufficient, healthy food

for a population of > 10 billion ?

- Population growth:

- Increasing meat consumption:

McMichael et al, Lancet, 2007

UN Population Division, 2013

10 |

The long- term priority:

Viewing our food differently

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Promoting the health benefits of more

sustainable and nutritious food systems

Moderating meat consumption in high

and middle income countries could bring:

- Reductions in greenhouse gas emissions consistent with sectoral targets.

- 30% reduction in adult consumption of saturated fat.

- 15-16% reduction in cardiovascular disease.

- Significant reductions in colorectal and other cancers

Estimates for London, UK, and São Paolo, Brazil. Friel et al, Lancet, 2009.

12 |

Measurement – from MDGs to SDGs:

Sustainable quality foods for all

Need to track trends in relation to :

Undernutrition,

micronutrient deficiency,

obesity,

food safety risks,

farmworker health,

etc…

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Inputs and Processes

•Protein supply in grams/capita/day (crops, livestock, fish)

•Trade negotiations that routinely assess sustainability impacts; including on food security, health and equity

•Number of countries that have phased out use of antibiotics as growth promoters

•Number of countries implementing national strategies for integrated pest management (IPM)

•Results of environmental, social and health impact assessments conducted on agricultural policies, plans and projects, accessible to the public

Outputs

•% total daily energy intake from saturated fats (excess)

•% total daily energy intake from protein (adequacy)

•Household Dietary Diversity Score (HDDS)

•Proportion of food marketed that complies with international food safety standards for hormone, pesticides, antibiotic residues, and other chemical and microbiological food safety parameters

Outcomes

•Prevalence of anaemia in women, particular of reproductive age

•Prevalence of stunting in children under 5 years

•Prevalence of obesity in children under 5 and in adults

• Incidence/prevalence of foodborne disease and outbreaks

Food Thematic Area:

Example Indicators

Health equity impacts

14 |

Conclusions

Food and nutrition are (obviously) one of the most important determinants of health patterns.

Reducing malnutrition remains an imperative, especially with climate change and other environmental pressures.

Controlling the burden of NCDs from poor diets will be one of the biggest challenges of coming decades.

There are big opportunities for "triple wins", for health, environment, and sustainable development.